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Penn National presents a competitive nine-race card this evening with first post at 5:45 PM ET. The racing surface is listed as fast with favorable weather conditions, featuring temperatures rising from 48°F to approximately 60°F by post time. Partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation chances ensure optimal racing conditions throughout the evening.
Track Conditions and Weather
Current conditions show partly cloudy skies with temperatures at 42°F rising to near 58°F by evening racing. Winds are calm from the WSW at 9 mph with humidity at 94%. The main track remains fast, which typically favors front-running horses at Penn National’s one-mile dirt oval. The short run to the first turn often benefits horses who establish early position in sprint races.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $11,000 Claiming (5:45 PM)
Six furlongs for three-year-olds and upward, claiming price $4,000. Expert consensus favors Don’t Losemymoney at 3-2 morning line odds with Ricardo Chiappe riding for trainer Cody Beattie. This seven-year-old gelding shows solid recent form and benefits from Chiappe’s strong Penn National statistics.
Key Contenders: Makoto brings consistency from the Leonardo Corujo/Naoise Agnew combination, while Lafitte’s Fleet represents value with Bruce Kravets training. Swing Oil merits consideration as a four-year-old with tactical speed.
Pace Analysis: The race sets up with moderate early pace, allowing tactical horses to position favorably. Don’t Losemymoney’s versatile running style gives him positional advantage.
Wagering Strategy: Don’t Losemymoney represents the logical win play based on expert consensus and recent form indicators.
Race 2 – $34,000 Maiden Special Weight (6:14 PM)
Race Details: $34,000 purse for two-year-old colts and geldings, 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. This represents one of the evening’s most competitive events with nine juveniles seeking their first victory.
Key Contenders Analysis
Cairo Surprise emerges as the clear standout choice with consensus expert backing. The Angel Cruz-ridden colt shows impressive consistency with a 0-2-0 record from two starts, having hit the board in both career appearances. Trainer Cathal Lynch brings solid credentials, and the colt benefits from strategic positioning in post three. Expert handicappers note he “rates a long way in front” of this field and represents the logical choice despite being “let-up” since his last start. Equibase SmartPick specifically recommends a $2 place wager on this runner.
Peach Smoothie represents the strongest connection angle with Brandon Kulp training and Angel Rodriguez riding. Kulp leads Penn National trainers with exceptional statistics: 126 wins from 430 starts in 2025, representing a robust 29% win rate. This represents significant value considering Kulp’s dominance at the current meet. Rodriguez brings additional credibility as one of Penn National’s leading riders. The combination merits serious consideration despite facing Cairo Surprise.
Torotoro brings trainer Lydee Shea credentials with Maicol Inirio aboard. This gelding represents a potential value play in a competitive juvenile field, though connections lack the statistical dominance of the top choices.
Secondary Choices
New Jersey Fever draws attention with Wilfredo Corujo riding for trainer Paulina Sinnefia. The colt benefits from experienced connections and tactical positioning in the field setup.
Respighi enters from trainer Erin McClellan with Jomar Torres aboard. This runner provides potential value as a lightly-regarded option with capable connections.
King of the Cross represents trainer Miguel Rodriguez with Anthony Salgado riding. The gelding offers longshot potential in a competitive maiden heat.
Pace Analysis
The 5 1/2-furlong distance typically produces moderate early pace in juvenile races at Penn National. Cairo Surprise’s tactical speed allows favorable positioning regardless of pace scenario, while Peach Smoothie’s versatility provides similar advantages. The field lacks dominant early speed, suggesting tactical horses will benefit from the setup. Expect moderate fractions through the first quarter, with acceleration beginning at the three-furlong marker.
Key Angles to Consider
The trainer angle strongly favors Peach Smoothie through Brandon Kulp’s exceptional Penn National statistics. Kulp’s 29% win rate significantly exceeds track averages and provides compelling value. Cairo Surprise’s consistency angle represents the primary threat, having placed in both career starts. The colt’s ability to handle the step up in class remains the key question. Angel Cruz brings solid riding credentials that enhance Cairo Surprise’s chances.
Wagering Strategy
Win Play: Cairo Surprise represents the logical choice based on expert consensus and consistent form patterns. The colt’s proven ability to hit the board provides confidence in maiden company.
Value Opportunity: Peach Smoothie offers exceptional trainer angle value with Brandon Kulp’s dominant statistics. The morning line odds likely undervalue this connection significantly.
Exacta Strategy: Box Cairo Surprise with Peach Smoothie as the primary combination, adding Torotoro and New Jersey Fever for coverage. The competitive field suggests reasonable payouts for exotic wagering.
Place/Show Strategy: Follow Equibase SmartPick recommendation with place wagering on Cairo Surprise, providing insurance against upset scenarios.
Race Prediction
Cairo Surprise appears positioned for victory based on proven form and expert backing, while Peach Smoothie represents the primary upset threat through superior connections. The race sets up favorably for tactical horses, with both top choices possessing the necessary versatility. Expect Cairo Surprise to control his destiny from favorable positioning, with Peach Smoothie providing the strongest challenge through Brandon Kulp’s exceptional training.
Race 3 – $12,000 Claiming (6:43 PM)
Six furlongs, claiming price $5,000. Gentle Breeze receives expert backing at 3-1 odds with Angel Rodriguez riding for Brandon Kulp. The four-year-old gelding benefits from Kulp’s leading trainer statistics at Penn National.
Secondary Choices: Lock Barrel brings early speed with Maicol Inirio riding, while Freedom’s Start represents George Albright’s barn with solid recent form.
Longshot Consideration: Uncle Money at longer odds provides value as a three-year-old with improvement potential.
Race 4 – $34,000 Maiden Special Weight Fillies (7:12 PM)
Race Details: $34,000 purse for maiden fillies and mares three years old and upward, 6 furlongs on dirt. This six-horse field represents a competitive maiden event with several horses showing potential for improvement.
Key Contenders Analysis
Chillow emerges as the consensus favorite at 2-1 odds with Jose Vargas riding for trainer Lynn Ashby. The four-year-old filly adds blinkers for tonight’s assignment, representing a significant equipment change that often sparks improvement. Expert handicappers note she “finished at the rear last start at Delaware Park and returns to shorter trip” as the “leading hope”. Trainer Lynn Ashby brings solid credentials with 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage in 2025, showing 3 wins from 24 starts this year. His recent 12-month statistics show 14 wins from 113 starts with $306,810 in earnings, indicating consistent competitiveness. The distance cutback from her last effort combined with blinkers addition suggests tactical improvement.
Air Force Sue represents the strongest threat at 7/2 odds with Martina Rojas riding for trainer Flint Stites. This three-year-old filly also adds blinkers for tonight’s effort, indicating connections believe equipment changes can spark breakthrough performance. Stites brings solid Penn National credentials and the filly benefits from the weight concession at 123 pounds versus older rivals. The trainer’s success with maiden fillies at Penn National provides additional confidence.
Secret Journey draws attention at 4-1 odds with David Cora aboard for trainer Carl O’Callaghan. Significantly, this four-year-old filly removes blinkers tonight, suggesting connections want her to relax and settle better in her racing. The equipment change represents a tactical shift that could benefit her racing style. Cora’s consistent riding at Penn National provides additional credibility.
Secondary Choices
Athena’s Secret offers value at 9/2 odds with Jomar Torres riding for trainer Todd Beattie. The three-year-old filly carries 123 pounds and represents a potential improving maiden with capable connections.
Shiny Dime draws consideration at 5-1 odds with Angel Rodriguez aboard for trainer Elisha Perez. Rodriguez’s leading rider statistics at Penn National enhance this filly’s chances despite longer odds.
Tap Dancin Cowgirl completes the field at 6-1 odds with Ricardo Chiappe riding for Flint Stites. This represents Stites’ second entry, providing the trainer with multiple opportunities in the competitive field.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong distance typically produces moderate early pace in maiden filly races at Penn National. The small six-horse field suggests less speed pressure early, potentially favoring horses with tactical versatility. Air Force Sue and Secret Journey appear most likely to show early speed, while Chillow’s running style allows positioning flexibility depending on pace development. The equipment changes to multiple horses suggest connections anticipate different tactical approaches, creating uncertainty in pace scenarios.
Key Angles to Consider
Equipment Changes: Three horses make significant equipment adjustments tonight. Chillow and Air Force Sue add blinkers, typically indicating connections want more focus and early speed. Secret Journey removes blinkers, suggesting a desire for more relaxed racing tactics. These changes often produce immediate improvement in maiden company.
Trainer Angles: Lynn Ashby’s solid statistics provide confidence in Chillow’s chances. His 13% win rate exceeds track averages, and the 46% in-the-money percentage shows consistent competitiveness. Flint Stites’ dual entry creates multiple opportunities for the barn’s supporters.
Distance Considerations: Expert analysis specifically mentions Chillow’s return to shorter trip as favorable. The distance cutback combined with equipment changes suggests tactical improvement potential.
Wagering Strategy
Win Play: Chillow represents the logical choice based on betting odds, trainer statistics, and equipment changes. The combination of Lynn Ashby’s solid statistics and the blinkers addition provides compelling angles.
Value Opportunity: Secret Journey at 4-1 odds offers potential value with the blinkers removal potentially improving her racing tactics. David Cora’s consistent riding enhances her chances.
Exacta Strategy: Box Chillow with Air Force Sue as the primary combination, both benefiting from equipment changes. Add Secret Journey for coverage underneath both top choices.
Upset Special: Shiny Dime with Angel Rodriguez provides longshot value at 5-1 odds, benefiting from leading rider statistics at Penn National.
Race Prediction
Chillow appears positioned for victory based on favorable odds, trainer statistics, and equipment changes designed to spark improvement. The distance cutback from her Delaware Park effort combined with blinkers addition creates multiple improvement angles. Air Force Sue represents the primary threat through similar equipment changes and competitive connections. The race sets up favorably for tactical horses, with equipment changes suggesting multiple horses capable of breakthrough performances in maiden company.
Suggested Selections: Chillow to win, Air Force Sue and Secret Journey for exotics, Shiny Dime as longshot value play.
Race 5 – $11,000 Claiming (7:41 PM)
Six furlongs, claiming price $4,000. Strider’s Slider draws expert support at 3-1 with Angel Rodriguez aboard for Brandon Kulp. The four-year-old gelding shows recent improvement and benefits from top connections.
Pace Scenario: Warrior’s Cause and Eddiemush bring early speed, setting up a favorable pace for stalkers like Strider’s Slider.
Race 6 – $11,000 Claiming (8:10 PM)
Six furlongs, claiming price $5,000. Kevin Mac receives backing at 5-2 with Ramon Moya riding for Bruce Kravets. The three-year-old gelding shows tactical versatility in this competitive claiming heat.
Value Play: Jace Is No Joke offers exacta value with solid recent form indicators.
Race 7 – $11,000 Claiming Fillies (8:39 PM)
Six furlongs for fillies and mares, claiming price $5,000. Drifting stands as the heavy favorite at 7-5 with David Cora riding for Mark Salvaggio. The four-year-old filly shows consistent form and strong connections.
Pace Analysis: This race lacks significant early speed, favoring horses with tactical speed like Drifting.
Race 8 – $15,000 Maiden Claiming (9:08 PM)
Five and a half furlongs, claiming price $10,000. Feratovic draws support at 8-5 with Wilfredo Corujo aboard for Kevin Fields. The four-year-old gelding shows promise in maiden company.
Secondary Choices: Classical Tale and Search for Hope merit consideration as potential value plays.
Race 9 – $13,000 Claiming (9:37 PM)
Six furlongs, claiming price $5,000. Kaz Creed provides longshot value at 8-1 with David Cora riding for Bruce Kravets. The four-year-old gelding brings class and recent form improvements.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel Rodriguez leads Penn National riders in statistical categories and rides multiple contenders tonight. His mounts Gentle Breeze and Strider’s Slider represent strong wagering opportunities.
David Cora brings consistent form with mounts Drifting and Kaz Creed, showing versatility across different race types.
Ricardo Chiappe continues strong form at the meet with Don’t Losemymoney representing his best opportunity in the opener.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brandon Kulp leads all Penn National trainers with 86 wins from 286 starts, representing exceptional consistency. His runners Gentle Breeze and Strider’s Slider merit strong consideration.
Bruce Kravets maintains solid statistics with 40 wins from 293 starts. Multiple runners tonight including Kevin Mac and Kaz Creed show promise.
Lynn Ashby brings Chillow in peak form for the maiden special weight, representing value in a competitive heat.
Best Wagering Strategies
Win Plays: Don’t Losemymoney (Race 1), Cairo Surprise (Race 2), and Drifting (Race 7) represent the strongest single-race opportunities based on expert consensus.
Value Opportunities: Gentle Breeze (Race 3) and Strider’s Slider (Race 5) offer solid value with leading trainer Brandon Kulp.
Longshot Special: Kaz Creed (Race 9) at 8-1 provides potential high-value return with solid recent form indicators.
Multi-Race Strategy: Consider Daily Double combinations linking strong favorites across consecutive races, particularly races 6-7 with Kevin Mac to Drifting providing reasonable payout potential.
Exacta Strategy: Focus on races with competitive fields like Race 3 and Race 6, boxing top choices with value runners for balanced risk-reward scenarios.
