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Keeneland’s Friday October 24th card features compelling racing with two prestigious stakes races highlighting a strong 10-race program. Clear skies and mild temperatures in the low-70s create ideal racing conditions for the penultimate day of the Fall 2025 meet.
Track Conditions and Weather
The main track is listed as Fast with the turf course rated Good to Firm, with the rail positioned at 10 feet. Current moisture levels show the dirt track at 17.58% with approximately 48,000 gallons of water applied yesterday, while the turf course maintains 34.98% moisture with grass height at 4.75 inches. Fair weather conditions with temperatures at 60°F, winds from the west-northwest at 10 mph, and 32% humidity create excellent racing conditions.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $50,000 Claiming (6½ Furlongs)
This claiming race for 3-year-olds presents a competitive field with several intriguing angles. Innova (#2) represents excellent value at 6-1 for trainer Michael Stidham with Luis Saez aboard, offering the potential to wire the field from his tactical speed. Ravens Dream (#3) brings the powerful Asmussen father-son combination that scored earlier in the week, while On the Level (#7) adds tactical speed with Irad Ortiz Jr. up.
The pace scenario favors horses with early foot, as several runners show gate speed. Shan (#1) with Lanfranco Dettori provides class relief, while Gettinby (#4) offers Tyler Gaffalione’s hot form.
Race 2 – $48,000 Maiden Claiming (7 Furlongs)
The large field of 16 maidens creates opportunities for value. No Mor Stones (#1) represents solid form for trainer Larry Rivelli with Jareth Loveberry, while Tiz My Hero (#11) drops significantly in class for Rohan Crichton with promising 8-1 odds. Battle Warrior (#3) and Rock Concert (#5) bring tactical speed that could prove effective in this competitive maiden field.
Race 3 – $130,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1⅛ Miles)
This competitive allowance race for 3-year-olds features an 8-horse field with clear speed and closing angles that create an intriguing pace scenario. The race conditions favor horses stepping up in class, with several having never won two races other than maiden or claiming company.
Key Contenders Analysis
Chunk of Gold (#6, 3-2 ML) emerges as the deserving favorite based on superior recent form and closing ability. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount for trainer Ethan West on this colt who shows impressive statistics with 30% win rate, 57% place rate, and 83% show rate from nine career starts. His “Fastest Closer” running style perfectly suits this 1⅛-mile distance, and his recent second-place finish at Churchill Downs over 1 1/16 miles demonstrates his current form. The combination produces a strong 33% win rate at Keeneland this meet.
So Sandy (#7, 2-1 ML) represents significant early speed with Luis Saez aboard for trainer Cherie DeVaux. This “Fastest Leads” type has shown consistent form with three wins from nine starts and earned $776,400. His recent fourth-place finish at Parx over 1⅛ miles followed by a strong second at Saratoga shows he can handle this level. Saez’s 25% win rate and aggressive riding style complement this front-runner perfectly.
Classicist (#4, 7-2 ML) brings the powerful Todd Pletcher-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination that’s been dominant this meet. This “Fast Leader” shows perfect place and show percentages (100%) from his four career starts, with two wins already. His recent victory at Belmont Park over 1⅛ miles and previous Saratoga win demonstrate his class and ability to handle this distance. Pletcher’s 22% win rate with 56% in-the-money percentage adds confidence, while Ortiz Jr.’s meet-leading statistics make this combination formidable.
Secondary Choices
Emergence (#8, 7-1 ML) represents excellent value for Brad Cox with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. This “Mid Pack Deep” closer has won twice from six starts and earned $318,570. His recent third-place finish in the 1½-mile Kentucky Turf Cup shows stamina, though his surface switch back to dirt adds questions. Cox’s 26% win rate and 68% in-the-money percentage at the meet create appeal at this price.
Uncaged (#3, 11-1 ML) provides the second Todd Pletcher entry with John Velazquez riding. This “Slower Closer” has earned $268,934 from 12 starts with solid recent form including a fourth at Belmont Park. Pletcher’s double-entry strategy often produces exacta opportunities, and Velazquez’s 17% win rate with 57% place rate creates value potential.
Urban Planner (#5, 14-1 ML) offers longshot appeal with Flavien Prat aboard for Eoin Harty. This gelding shows 50% win rate from limited starts and has earned $191,400 as a “Fast Closer.” His recent fifth at Tampa Bay Downs followed by two victories suggests improving form. Prat’s 19% win rate and tactical riding style create upset possibilities.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup strongly favors closers with multiple speed horses signed up. So Sandy and Classicist both show “Fast Leader” and “Fastest Leads” designations, ensuring honest early fractions. Bestfriend Rocket (#2) adds to the pace as a “Slowest Stalker,” while the strong closing contingent of Chunk of Gold, Emergence, and Urban Planner should benefit from the expected quick early pace.
Historical data shows that 4 of 5 winners at this 1⅛-mile distance at Keeneland this meet were within 1½ lengths of the lead after the first half-mile, suggesting tactical speed proves most effective. However, with multiple legitimate speed horses, closers may have better opportunities than typical.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Todd Pletcher double-entry of Classicist and Uncaged creates exacta opportunities, particularly with both riders having strong meet statistics. Pletcher’s dominance in 9-furlong dirt races at Keeneland historically provides additional confidence.
Jose Ortiz’s exceptional 25% win rate over mile-and-a-half turf races at Keeneland suggests superior trip-riding ability that translates to dirt routes. His partnership with Chunk of Gold represents the strongest win combination.
Value plays center on Emergence at 7-1 for the Cox-Gaffalione combination and Urban Planner at 14-1 with Prat’s tactical skills. Both closers should benefit from the expected pace setup.
Race 4 – $78,000 Maiden Claiming 2YO (6 Furlongs)
The juvenile maiden field features several promising types. The Town (#3) represents Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. in a powerful combination, while Fake Smart (#5) brings Jose Ortiz for trainer Joe Sharp. Complexed (#7) and Banker’s Jet (#6) both represent Mark Casse’s stable strength. Arbiter (#14) adds Wesley Ward’s 2-year-old expertise with John Velazquez.
Race 5 – $110,000 Maiden Special Weight Fillies (1⅛ Miles Turf)
This high-quality maiden special weight features 16 two-year-old fillies stretching out to 1⅛ miles on Keeneland’s Haggin Course with the rail positioned at 10 feet. The $110,000 purse and preference for horses that haven’t started for less than $75,000 ensures a competitive field with strong breeding and connections.
Key Contenders Analysis
Kentucky Belle (#3, 7-2 ML) represents the powerful Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination that has dominated this meet. This Justify filly made an impressive debut over one mile on dirt at Churchill Downs, closing well to finish third after breaking slowly. Her pedigree suggests turf capability, with her dam producing a winner at two turns on grass. The surface switch from dirt to turf often benefits closers, and Cox’s 26% win rate combined with Ortiz Jr.’s meet-leading statistics create strong appeal despite the 7-2 morning line appearing short for a turf debut.
Counterintuitive (#11, 4-1 ML) brings Chad Brown’s proven turf expertise with Flavien Prat aboard. This filly made a respectable debut at Saratoga, and Brown seeks his first winner of this meet. The Brown-Prat combination historically excels with turf maidens, particularly at this distance. However, the morning line of 4-1 may not offer adequate value considering Brown’s struggles this meet, though his turf record with juvenile fillies remains elite.
Temeraire (#7, 5-1 ML) emerges as an intriguing value play for Riley Mott with Junior Alvarado. Her breeding suggests strong route capabilities on turf, as her dam produced Sir Anthony, a Grade 3 winner who captured the 2-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes on turf at Gulfstream. Her debut at Kentucky Downs provided useful experience, and the switch to two turns at this longer distance should benefit her more than most rivals. The 5-1 morning line offers excellent value for a filly with this pedigree profile.
Secondary Choices and Longshots
Bohemian (#8, 12-1 ML) represents excellent value with Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Joe Sharp. This experienced filly has five career starts and was favored in her last race at Churchill Downs, where she was making a sustained, strong-looking bid when the rider of a front-runner fell, forcing her to slam on the brakes and veer out. Despite facing a tougher group today, her experience and solid foundation create appeal at 12-1 odds.
Improbable U (#4, 6-1 ML) brings John Velazquez’s turf expertise for trainer Jonathan Thomas. First-time turf maidens with this jockey often perform well, and the breeding suggests distance capability.
A. P.’s Girl (#12, 15-1 ML) provides longshot appeal with Lanfranco Dettori aboard for Peter Eurton. Dettori’s tactical skills and experience with turf routes create upset potential at attractive odds.
Pace Analysis and Distance Considerations
Historical data shows that 1⅛-mile turf maiden special weights at Keeneland favor horses with tactical speed, with the average winner positioned 2¾ lengths back after the first half-mile. No winner has been more than 5½ lengths back at that juncture, indicating that good stalking position proves crucial.
The stretch to 1⅛ miles represents a significant test for most of these juveniles, with pedigree analysis becoming paramount. Horses with stamina influences in their breeding profiles gain advantages, particularly those by sires proven at route distances on turf.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Brad Cox angle remains strong despite Kentucky Belle’s short price. Cox’s stable continues heating up through the meet, and the combination with Ortiz Jr. produces consistent results. The surface switch from dirt to turf often benefits closers, which matches Kentucky Belle’s running style.
Chad Brown’s turf expertise cannot be ignored despite his slow start to the meet. Counterintuitive represents his best chance for a breakthrough winner, and Brown’s historical success with juvenile fillies on turf creates confidence even at 4-1 odds.
Pedigree advantages favor Temeraire and horses with proven route/stamina influences. The 1⅛-mile distance separates pretenders from legitimate route horses, making breeding analysis crucial.
Value plays center on Temeraire at 5-1 and Bohemian at 12-1, both offering significant upside potential with legitimate chances.
Track Bias and Rail Position
With the rail at 10 feet, the turf course should play fairly evenly, though horses with tactical speed to secure good position early often maintain advantages. The Haggin Course’s configuration favors horses that can secure stalking positions and make sustained moves down the stretch.
Selections and Wagering Recommendations
Win: Kentucky Belle (#3)
Place: Temeraire (#7), Counterintuitive (#11)
Show: Bohemian (#8)
Exacta Box: 3-7-11
Trifecta: 3,7,11 / 3,4,7,8,11 / 3,4,7,8,11,12
Superfecta: 3,7,11 / 3,4,7,8,11 / 3,4,7,8,11,12 / ALL
Value Play Daily Double (Race 5-6): Kentucky Belle/Temeraire with Woodstock in Race 6
The combination of Kentucky Belle’s class, connections, and closing ability creates the strongest win angle, while Temeraire offers exceptional value at 5-1 with her breeding profile perfectly suited for this distance. The Brown-Prat combination with Counterintuitive provides exotic play coverage, with Bohemian representing longshot value for deeper payouts.
Race 6 – $250,000 Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes (6 Furlongs)
The sixth running of the Dean Dorton Myrtlewood Stakes brings together six promising 2-year-old fillies in a competitive field headlined by undefeated stakes winners. This $250,000 feature represents one of the premier juvenile filly races of the Keeneland Fall meet, with the winner earning $157,500.
Key Contenders Analysis
A Fine Chardonnay (#6, 9-2 ML) emerges as the handicapper’s top selection despite her longer odds. This Ian Wilkes-trained filly was impressive on debut and appears poised to take another step forward. Tyler Gaffalione’s partnership with the barn adds confidence, and the morning line odds of 9-2 offer excellent value for a filly with upside potential. Her debut performance suggests she possesses the tactical speed necessary to be effective at six furlongs.
Woodstock (#5, 7-2 ML) headlines the field as the most accomplished runner, having captured the E.L. Gaylord Memorial at Remington Park by a dominant 10½ lengths on September 28. Trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Luis Saez, who was aboard for the Remington victory, this filly brings a perfect 2-for-2 record on dirt. Her 120-pound weight assignment reflects her stakes-winning status, but her impressive form suggests she can handle the burden. The Maker-Saez combination has been effective throughout this meet.
On Time Girl (#2, 2-1 ML) represents the powerful Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. partnership that has dominated this meet. This filly has won both her starts by a combined 6½ lengths, establishing herself as “the speed of the race”. Her two victories at six furlongs demonstrate her effectiveness at this distance, and Cox’s hot stable combined with Ortiz Jr.’s meet-leading statistics create strong appeal despite the short price.
Secondary Choices
Kingsolver (#1, 3-1 ML) brings the most experience to this field and represents a “must use in all exotics” according to expert analysis. Trained by Rodolphe Brisset with Flavien Prat aboard, she carries 120 pounds as a stakes winner but offers solid exotic value. Her seasoning advantage over several rivals could prove decisive in a competitive stakes environment.
Counting Stars (#4, 4-1 ML) adds Mark Casse’s 2-year-old expertise with Jose Ortiz riding. This Honor A.P. filly “will be around at the end” according to expert analysis, suggesting her best running comes late. Casse’s strong record with juvenile stakes runners and Ortiz’s tactical skills create appeal at 4-1 odds.
Storm Cloud Rising (#3, 12-1 ML) represents the longest shot in the field but offers significant value potential. Trained by Jesus Esquivel with Javier Padron-Barcenas aboard, she could provide upset possibilities at attractive odds for exotic players.
Pace Analysis and Distance Considerations
The six-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed and finishing kick. On Time Girl brings proven early pace, while A Fine Chardonnay and Woodstock possess the versatility to adapt to pace scenarios. The track record of 1:07.89 set by Nashville in 2020 provides the standard for exceptional performance at this distance.
Historical analysis shows that fillies with gate speed often maintain advantages in stakes company at six furlongs, though the quality of this field suggests pace dynamics will prove crucial. The presence of multiple proven winners creates a competitive environment where tactical positioning becomes paramount.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Brad Cox angle remains compelling with On Time Girl despite her short price. Cox’s stable continues heating up through the meet, and the combination with Ortiz Jr. produces consistent results. Her proven speed figures and tactical versatility create win potential.
Value opportunities center on A Fine Chardonnay at 9-2, offering the best risk-reward ratio in the field. Her improvement potential combined with Gaffalione’s strong form creates excellent value.
The Michael Maker factor with Woodstock provides additional confidence. Maker’s success with 2-year-olds and Saez’s return call following their Remington triumph suggest this filly remains in top form.
Exotic plays should include Kingsolver as a “must use” based on her experience advantage. The competitive nature of this field creates opportunities for longer-priced horses in trifecta and superfecta combinations.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The race features several powerful partnerships: Cox-Ortiz Jr. with On Time Girl, Maker-Saez with Woodstock, and Brisset-Prat with Kingsolver. These established combinations have produced multiple winners throughout the meet and represent the strongest betting angles.
Wilkes-Gaffalione with A Fine Chardonnay offers the most value, while Casse-Ortiz with Counting Stars provides solid exotic coverage.
Race 7 – $120,000 Allowance Fillies & Mares (1 1/16 Miles Turf)
This competitive allowance race for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward features a maximum field of 16 runners on Keeneland’s Haggin Course with the rail positioned at 10 feet. The $120,000 purse and restrictive conditions create a quality field where several horses appear ready to break through at the allowance level.
Key Contenders Analysis
Cliffs (#14, 3-2 ML) emerges as the deserving favorite with Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Cherie DeVaux. This 3-year-old filly shows impressive statistics with a 25% win rate and 75% show rate from four career starts, including a recent second-place finish in a 1⅛-mile turf race at Saratoga. Her “Mid Pack Stalker” running style perfectly suits this distance, and the combination of Ortiz’s tactical skills with her proven turf form creates the strongest win angle. Her $125,200 in career earnings from limited starts demonstrates consistent quality.
Correto (#5, 3-1 ML) represents the powerful combination of trainer Graham Motion and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.. This “Fastest Leader” shows a solid 20% win rate with 60% show rate from five starts, earning $191,650. Her recent third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Gulfstream Park demonstrates current form, and Motion’s 21% win rate with 51% in-the-money percentage adds confidence. Ortiz Jr.’s meet-leading statistics make this combination formidable, though the early pace responsibilities may prove challenging in this competitive field.
Bracelet (#9, 5-1 ML) offers exceptional value as the featured selection, bringing Brad Cox’s hot stable with the significant jockey upgrade to Flavien Prat. This “Fast Leader” shows a 25% win rate and 50% show rate while earning $349,000 from four career starts. Cox’s barn continues heating up through the meet with a 26% win rate, and Prat’s 22% win rate with 59% in-the-money percentage creates powerful appeal at 5-1 odds. Her versatile running style and class edge over several rivals make her the prime value play.
Secondary Choices and Value Plays
Love You Anyway (#10, 5-2 ML) brings consistent form with Luis Saez aboard, showing a 20% win rate and 60% show rate as a “Fast Leads” type. Her recent runner-up finish in a 1-mile turf race at Kentucky Downs demonstrates current sharpness, and her $174,340 in earnings from five starts reflects steady quality. Saez’s 22% win rate provides additional confidence, though her morning line appears short for a horse making her first start at this level.
Tricky Kitty (#2, 7-2 ML) represents excellent value for the Brendan Walsh-Tyler Gaffalione combination. This 4-year-old filly shows a 25% win rate and 50% show rate, with a recent victory in a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Churchill Downs demonstrating her effectiveness at this distance. Walsh’s 23% win rate combined with Gaffalione’s 27% win rate and 56% in-the-money percentage creates strong appeal. Her “Mid Pack Stalker” style should benefit from the expected pace scenario.
Celtic Charm (#15, 11-1 ML) provides longshot value for the Michael Maker-Tyler Gaffalione partnership. This 4-year-old filly shows a 25% win rate and 50% show rate with $101,140 in earnings. Her recent fifth-place finish at Saratoga followed consistent efforts, and the 122-pound weight assignment for older horses shouldn’t hinder her closing ability.
Pace Analysis and Distance Considerations
The pace setup favors stalkers and closers with multiple speed horses entered. Correto brings “Fastest Leader” designation, while Bracelet, Love You Anyway, and Sea Runner all show “Fast Leader” or “Fast Leads” running styles, ensuring honest early fractions. This speed-heavy scenario should benefit mid-pack stalkers like Cliffs and Tricky Kitty, along with closers positioned further back.
The 1 1/16-mile distance on turf typically favors horses with tactical speed to secure position, though the competitive pace should create opportunities for well-positioned closers. Historical data shows successful horses at this distance maintain contact with the leaders throughout the race while saving ground for their final move.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Brad Cox angle with Bracelet represents the strongest value play. Cox’s stable continues its hot streak through the meet, and the significant jockey upgrade to Flavien Prat creates additional appeal. The 5-1 morning line odds offer excellent value for a horse with clear class advantages.
Trainer form angles favor Motion with Correto and Walsh with Tricky Kitty, both showing consistent in-the-money percentages that create confidence for exotic play.
The favorite angle with Cliffs cannot be ignored despite the short price. Jose Ortiz’s tactical skills combined with her consistent form and stalking running style create legitimate win chances, though the 3-2 odds offer limited value.
Track Bias and Rail Position
With the rail at 10 feet, the turf course should play fairly evenly across all paths. The Haggin Course configuration at 1 1/16 miles includes a turn for home that often favors horses with tactical speed to secure good position for the stretch drive.
Race 8 – $140,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 Miles)
This competitive allowance optional claiming race for 3-year-olds and upward features a strong 9-horse field with several proven stakes-level performers stepping into allowance company. The $140,000 purse creates significant value opportunities with multiple legitimate contenders offering varying price points.
Key Contenders Analysis
Generous Tipper (#6, 5-2 ML) emerges as the deserving favorite returning from his Dubai campaign for trainer Kenny McPeek with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. This 4-year-old colt brings international experience and proven class, having competed at Meydan earlier this year. McPeek’s expertise with international travel and placing horses in spots where they can succeed creates confidence. Ortiz Jr.’s meet-leading statistics combined with the trainer’s confidence in running him first off the layoff makes this the strongest win angle. His previous Keeneland form for McPeek adds local track knowledge.
Capital Idea (#8, 7-2 ML) represents the powerful Bill Mott-Junior Alvarado combination that has been dominant throughout 2025, including their Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes victories with Sovereignty. This 4-year-old gelding shows solid career earnings and benefits from Mott’s patient training approach. Alvarado’s exceptional season creates additional confidence, and the Mott barn’s consistency in placing horses at appropriate levels makes this a strong contender despite the slightly higher weight assignment at 124 pounds.
Hold My Bourbon (#4, 5-1 ML) brings tactical speed for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with Jose Ortiz riding. This 4-year-old ridgling shows “Fast Leads” running style with solid career earnings of $450,300. Joseph’s 20% win rate with 53% in-the-money percentage provides strong training angle, while Ortiz’s 22% win rate with 57% place rate creates powerful jockey statistics. His $19,983 per start earnings demonstrate consistent quality.
Secondary Choices and Value Plays
Catching Freedom (#7, 8-1 ML) offers exceptional value as the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes contender for Brad Cox with Flavien Prat. This proven stakes performer finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and competed in the Preakness, demonstrating his class at the highest level. Cox’s barn continues heating up through the meet, and the significant class drop to allowance company creates strong value potential. His deep closing style should benefit from the expected pace scenario, though traffic concerns exist in route races.
Brotha Keny (#3, 3-1 ML) represents solid value for trainer William Morey with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. This 3-year-old gelding shows “Fastest Deep” closing style with impressive career earnings of $530,612. Gaffalione’s 21% win rate with 59% in-the-money percentage creates confidence, while the horse’s consistent form suggests breakthrough potential in this spot.
Catalytic (#1, 7-1 ML) provides longshot appeal with Luis Saez riding for trainer Antonio Sano. This 4-year-old colt shows “Fast Stalker” running style with career earnings of $364,400. Saez’s 19% win rate creates solid jockey statistics, and the morning line odds offer value for exotic play.
Pace Analysis and Distance Considerations
The pace setup favors closers with multiple speed horses entered. Hold My Bourbon brings “Fast Leads” designation, while Catalytic shows “Fast Stalker” style, ensuring honest early fractions. This speed-heavy scenario should benefit deep closers like Brotha Keny (“Fastest Deep”) and Catching Freedom, who thrives on strong early pace to set up his late kick.
Historical data shows that only 1 of 13 winners in similar allowance races at Keeneland was won by a horse exiting a sprint prep, which works against some rivals but favors route specialists like Generous Tipper and Catching Freedom.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Kenny McPeek angle with Generous Tipper represents the strongest win angle. McPeek’s expertise with international campaigners and his confidence in running this horse first back from Dubai creates significant appeal. The trainer’s success placing horses at Keeneland adds local knowledge.
The Brad Cox resurgence with Catching Freedom offers exceptional value at 8-1. Cox’s barn continues its hot streak, and the significant class drop from Triple Crown races to allowance company creates major value potential despite the layoff concerns.
The Bill Mott consistency factor with Capital Idea provides solid exotic coverage. Mott’s patient approach and Alvarado’s banner year create confidence for place and show wagering.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The race features several powerful partnerships: McPeek-Ortiz Jr. with Generous Tipper, Mott-Alvarado with Capital Idea, Cox-Prat with Catching Freedom, and Joseph-Ortiz with Hold My Bourbon. These established combinations represent the strongest betting angles throughout the field.
Track Bias and Surface Considerations
The main track’s Fast condition favors tactical speed types who can secure good position early and maintain their advantage through the stretch. The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for tactical development while rewarding horses with sustainable speed.
Race 9 – $400,000 Valley View Stakes G2 (1 Mile Turf)
The penultimate day of Keeneland’s Fall meet features this prestigious Grade 2 contest for 3-year-old fillies with an overflow field of 15 runners competing for $400,000 in purse money. The winner earns $252,000 and valuable Breeders’ Cup points for the upcoming championship races.
Key Contenders Analysis
Play With Fire (#2, 2-1 ML) emerges as the logical favorite for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat aboard. This Minnesota-bred Oscar Performance filly captured the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico during Preakness week before finishing second in consecutive Saratoga stakes, including the Lake Placid Stakes where she was beaten by a soft pace. Brown seeks his second Valley View victory in three years after capturing the 2023 edition with Surge Capacity, though he surprisingly took until Day 15 of 17 to record his first win of this meet. The filly’s tactical speed and proven class at the Grade 2 level create the strongest win angle, though the 2-1 morning line offers limited value.
Tabiti (#9, 9-2 ML) represents exceptional value as the British import making her first start for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr.. This Juddmonte homebred Kingman filly won three of five starts overseas for Ralph Beckett, including the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood. Her U.S. debut in the Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs resulted in a solid third-place finish, though the 6½-furlong distance appeared too short for her best effort. Cox maintains excellent statistics with new acquisitions, and the blinkers removal suggests confidence in her ability to handle this competitive field. Expert analysis suggests “she has the potential to beat this field by open lengths if everything clicks”.
Classic Q (#6, 7-2 ML) brings proven form against Play With Fire, having defeated her in Saratoga’s Wild Applause Stakes before a disappointing effort at Kentucky Downs. Trained by Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz riding, she represents the powerful combination that captured the Franklin Stakes earlier this meet with Time to Dazzle. Her tactical speed and proven ability at this level create strong exacta potential with the favorite.
Secondary Choices and Value Plays
Vixen (#4, 8-1 ML) offers solid value despite facing stronger competition than in recent efforts. This Vekoma filly has consistently chased eventual Grade 1 winners Nitrogen and Lush Lips, demonstrating her quality level. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount as Irad Ortiz Jr. switches to Tabiti, creating a jockey upgrade scenario. Mark Casse’s success this meet with turf stakes adds confidence.
May Day Ready (#12, 10-1 ML) provides longshot appeal with an outside post position that should allow for a comfortable stalking trip. After disappointing efforts in Japan and when taken off the turf, she returned to form by winning the Lake Placid Stakes before a poor effort in the Winter Memories Stakes where she was buried on the rail. Expert analysis suggests “if someone upsets the top pick, I think it’s going to be her” with the outside draw allowing her preferred position.
Admit (#1, 20-1 ML) represents significant longshot value with John Velazquez, who has dominated stakes races this meet with six victories including the Sycamore and Indian Summer on turf. Velazquez captured his lone Valley View victory in 2009, and his current hot streak creates upset potential at attractive odds.
Pace Analysis and Distance Considerations
The race features significant early speed with multiple horses capable of pressing the pace. This setup should benefit late-running types like Play With Fire, Tabiti, and May Day Ready, who can capitalize on honest early fractions. The 1-mile distance on Keeneland’s Haggin Course with the rail at 10 feet should play fairly to all running styles, though tactical speed often proves advantageous.
Expert analysis indicates “there’s a lot of speed signed on for this race” which should set up perfectly for closers positioned just off the pace. The competitive nature of this Grade 2 field ensures honest fractions throughout.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The Chad Brown angle with Play With Fire represents class and experience, though the short price limits value. Brown’s patience in waiting for the right spot and Prat’s tactical expertise create confidence despite the morning line favorite status.
The Brad Cox acquisition angle with Tabiti offers exceptional value at 9-2. Cox’s statistical success with new horses combined with the filly’s European class and the distance stretching out from her U.S. debut creates the strongest value play.
The John Velazquez hot streak with Admit at 20-1 provides significant upset potential. Velazquez’s six stakes victories this meet demonstrate his current form, making longshot consideration worthwhile.
Track Bias and Surface Conditions
The turf course rated Good to Firm with the rail at 10 feet should provide fair racing conditions. Historical Valley View results favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position and sustain their move through the stretch.
International and Breeding Angles
Tabiti’s European credentials add significant appeal, as international imports often excel when stretching out in distance and facing different competition. Her Group 3 victory at Goodwood demonstrates quality that translates well to American graded stakes company.
Race 10 – $63,000 Starter Allowance 2YO (6½ Furlongs)
Just Like Max (#4) offers 6-1 value for trainer Genaro Garcia with Gabriel Saez, while J J Grey (#5) represents Kenny McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel. Misinformation (#1) brings Mark Casse’s juvenile expertise with Jose Ortiz.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. leads all riders with 22 wins from 112 starts this meet, showing exceptional form. His mounts in Race 2 (On Time Girl), Race 3 (Classicist), Race 4 (The Town), Race 5 (Kentucky Belle), Race 7 (Correto), Race 8 (Generous Tipper), and Race 9 (Tabiti) represent strong opportunities.
Tyler Gaffalione has been riding exceptionally well with multiple wins throughout the meet. His partnerships with trainers like Mark Casse and Brad Cox continue producing results.
Luis Saez maintains his high strike rate with 102 starts , particularly effective on horses with tactical speed. His mount Woodstock in the Myrtlewood Stakes represents excellent value.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox has been the leading trainer with multiple wins, and his stable continues heating up as the meet progresses. His runners Kentucky Belle, The Town, On Time Girl, Bracelet, Catching Freedom, and Tabiti all represent strong plays across the card.
Mark Casse maintains his consistent form with multiple quality runners throughout the card. The trainer’s 2-year-old expertise shows with several promising juveniles entered.
Todd Pletcher brings his usual class with Classicist and Uncaged in Race 3, both representing solid value in competitive spots.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Early Daily Double of Race 1-2 offers solid value combining Innova and Ravens Dream with No Mor Stones and Tiz My Hero.
Race 5 presents an excellent Exacta Box opportunity with Kentucky Belle, Improbable U, and Counterintuitive.
The Late Daily Double of Race 9-10 provides value with Play With Fire and Classic Q paired with Just Like Max and J J Grey.
Single race value plays include Woodstock in Race 6, Bracelet in Race 7, and Generous Tipper in Race 8, all offering attractive odds with strong recent form and tactical advantages.
Pick 3 sequences focusing on Brad Cox’s hot stable and Irad Ortiz Jr.’s strong riding provide excellent opportunities for larger payouts, particularly the middle card sequence covering the stakes races.
