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The Saturday card at Mahoning Valley presents an exceptional wagering opportunity with four $100,000 Best of Ohio stakes races anchoring the program. The 10-race card offers strong betting interest from the opening maiden claimer through the featured Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes.
Track Conditions & Weather
Current conditions show cloudy skies with temperatures at 42°F, providing ideal racing weather for late October. The dirt track is expected to be in good condition for the afternoon program, with first post time at 12:15 PM. These cooler temperatures typically favor speed horses that can maintain their pace throughout six-furlong sprints and help closers in the longer route races.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $12,100 Claiming (6F)
Key Contenders: Our Lady Peace (#8) enters as the 9-5 morning line favorite in this maiden claiming event for fillies and mares. The Anthony Farrior-trained filly gets the services of Luis Rivera, a leading jockey at the current meet.
Secondary Choices: Good Enough for Me (#1) trained by Alejandro Gomez shows potential despite recent scratches from multiple races. She Had a Secret (#4) brings experience at age six and could provide value.
Pace Analysis: This appears to be a moderate pace setup with several horses likely to press early. Our Lady Peace’s tactical speed should serve her well from post 8.
Wagering Recommendation: Our Lady Peace to win, with exacta and trifecta coverage including Good Enough for Me and She Had a Secret.
Race 2 – $14,900 Claiming (6F)
Key Contenders: Gamboling Ghost (#8) stands out as the expert selection at 7-2 odds. The Jason DaCosta trainee gets Erik Barbaran to ride and has shown improvement in recent outings.
Secondary Choices: Verbier (#2) from the Richard Zielinski barn brings consistent form, while Tonight (#3) represents the hot Jeffrey Radosevich stable.
Longshots: Ready for Action (#10) could provide value in the exotics at longer odds.
Key Angles: The DaCosta/Barbaran combination has been effective at the meet, making Gamboling Ghost the logical choice.
Race 3 – $19,500 Ohio-Bred Claiming (6F)
Key Contenders: Vecchi (#7) emerges as the top selection at 7-2 odds with Jose Bracho riding for Jeffrey Radosevich. This combination has been successful throughout the meet.
Pace Analysis: Seeking Freedom (#1) and Harsh Truth (#2) could set the early pace, potentially setting up a closer like Vecchi.
Value Play: Man’s Choice (#9) from the Zielinski barn could offer value in the exotics.
Race 4 – $33,700 Ohio-Bred Allowance (6F)
Key Contenders: Shadow Strike (#4) appears strongest at 5-2 odds with Rivera riding for Justin Radosevich. This lightly raced three-year-old has room for improvement.
Secondary Choices: Professor Nick (#3) brings solid form for the powerful Zielinski stable, while Grits N Gravy (#1) has shown ability in limited starts.
Longshots: After Sunrise (#9) could factor at a price for the Wilson Langley barn.
Race 5 – $33,700 Ohio-Bred Allowance (6F)
Key Contenders: Sadie’s Ghost (#6) gets the nod at 5-2 with Anthony Rodriguez riding. The Richard Rettele trainee has been running well in similar company.
Secondary Choices: Heza Pistol (#2) brings solid credentials for trainer Robert Cline, while Duo (#3) represents Michelle Winters.
Value Angles: Dynamic Gift (#8) and Silver Is a Gift (#10) both train under Hugo Andrade and could provide exotic value.
Race 6 – $100,000 Best of Ohio John W. Galbreath Stakes (1 1/16M)
The $100,000 Best of Ohio John W. Galbreath Stakes for two-year-old Ohio-bred fillies at 1 1/16 miles represents one of the premier juvenile filly events in Ohio racing. This race traditionally serves as a stepping stone to bigger stakes opportunities and attracts quality breeding stock from across the state.
Key Contenders
Cast Your Spell (#2) emerges as the overwhelming favorite at 9-5 odds with the powerful Michael Maker/Jareth Loveberry combination. This Good Magic filly brings impressive breeding credentials, being sired by the 2018 Eclipse Award-winning three-year-old male. The Maker stable has been exceptionally effective with juvenile fillies throughout 2025, particularly in stakes company. Loveberry’s tactical riding style pairs perfectly with Maker’s patient development approach, making this combination particularly dangerous in route races for two-year-olds.
Echo Valley (#1) provides the primary competition at 7-2 odds with Erik Barbaran riding for Robert Gorham. The Thoroughbred Daily News handicappers project her as the main threat to the favorite. Gorham has developed a strong reputation with Ohio-bred stakes horses, and this filly has shown steady improvement in her recent work pattern. The rail post position could prove advantageous if she can secure an early stalking position behind the anticipated moderate pace.
Secondary Choices & Value Plays
Nava’s Gold (#8) represents intriguing value with Luis Rivera in the irons for James Jackson. Rivera has been among the leading jockeys at the current Mahoning Valley meet and brings tactical expertise to route racing. The Jackson stable typically brings horses to peak form for stakes opportunities, making this filly a legitimate exotic play at potentially generous odds.
Perfect Angel (#6) could provide surprise value for the Jason DaCosta stable with Alexander Chavez aboard. DaCosta has shown improvement with his two-year-old program throughout 2025, and this filly has been training forwardly according to recent workout reports.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile distance strongly favors fillies with tactical speed who can position themselves within striking distance of moderate early fractions. Cast Your Spell figures to employ patient tactics from post two, allowing the speed to develop while maintaining position for her late kick. Echo Valley from the rail could press the pace or employ stalking tactics depending on how the race develops.
The absence of confirmed early speed in this field suggests moderate opening fractions through the first half-mile, setting up perfectly for closers with stamina. Two-year-old fillies at this distance typically require tactical positioning rather than pure speed to be effective.
Key Angles
The Maker/Loveberry combination represents the most significant angle in this race. Their success rate with juvenile fillies in stakes company has been exceptional throughout 2025, particularly when stepping up quality two-year-olds to stakes competition for the first time.
Ohio-bred stakes pedigree becomes crucial in this event, as horses bred specifically for the Ohio program often show marked improvement when competing for these lucrative purses. Cast Your Spell’s Good Magic bloodline brings proven stamina and class, essential qualities for success at today’s distance.
Route debut angle should be considered, as several fillies are attempting the 1 1/16-mile distance for the first time. Fillies with stamina-oriented pedigrees typically show significant improvement when stretching out, particularly those training under patient development programs like Maker’s operation.
Wagering Recommendation
Win/Place: Cast Your Spell represents solid value at 9-5 odds given the strength of connections and favorable race setup.
Exacta: Key Cast Your Spell over Echo Valley and Nava’s Gold for coverage of the most likely finishing scenarios.
Trifecta: Use Cast Your Spell and Echo Valley in the top two positions with Perfect Angel, Nava’s Gold, and Ryka (#3) filling out the bottom of deeper trifecta coverage.
Longshot Special: Perfect Angel could provide significant value in the win pool if the pace sets up favorably for a closer from the outside posts.
The race represents an excellent opportunity to support the proven Maker/Loveberry combination while maintaining exotic coverage on legitimate threats who could capitalize on any early pace dynamics.
Race 7 – $100,000 Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes (1 1/16M)
The $100,000 Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes for two-year-old colts and geldings at 1 1/16 miles represents the premier event for Ohio-bred juvenile males. This race has produced several horses that advanced to major stakes competition, making it a crucial stepping stone in Ohio’s breeding program.
Key Contenders
Crown the Buckeye (#7) stands as the commanding 6-5 favorite with Jareth Loveberry riding for Michael Maker. This Yaupon colt delivered a spectacular performance in his last start, winning the $100,000 Best of Ohio Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes at Thistledown by an overwhelming 12 1/4 lengths. The victory came in just his second career start after finishing second to No More Cents in his debut in the Hoover Stakes. Bred by Pick View LLC, Paul Schaffer, and William Pickerrell, he sold for $250,000 at the OBS Spring two-year-old sale, indicating significant physical quality.
Crown the Buckeye represents Yaupon’s second stakes winner of the year, with the first-crop sire now boasting 11 total winners. His commanding Cleveland Kindergarten victory showcased tactical speed early before exploding in the stretch, suggesting he possesses both the pace-pressing ability and acceleration needed for today’s distance. The Maker/Loveberry combination has been exceptionally effective with two-year-olds throughout 2025, particularly in stakes company.
No More Cents (#1) provides the primary competition at 7-2 odds with Declan Cannon aboard for Kenny McPeek. This Ohio-bred gray colt has already earned black type, capturing the Hoover Stakes at Belterra Park on debut by 2 1/4 lengths. However, he suffered a significant setback when finishing third in the Cleveland Kindergarten, beaten 12 1/4 lengths by Crown the Buckeye. McPeek purchased this son of an unraced mare for just $35,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling Sale, representing exceptional value. McPeek’s expertise with developing bargain purchases has been well-documented throughout his career, including his acquisition of future champion Curlin for $57,000.
Secondary Choices & Value Opportunities
Water Into Wine (#3) emerges as an intriguing value play at 6-1 odds with Rocco Bowen riding for Timothy Hamm. Hamm has been the hottest trainer at the current meet with 40 victories in 160 starts over the past 21 days, far exceeding his nearest competitors. This represents remarkable current form that demands serious consideration in stakes company.
The Timothy Hamm barn dominance becomes even more significant considering he saddles five runners in this 11-horse field: Water Into Wine (#3), Tom’s Avatar (#5), Global Event (#6), Sound City (#10), and Strategic Profile (#11). This massive representation suggests Hamm views this race as a prime opportunity for his stable, with multiple tactical options available depending on pace development.
Mark My Words (#2) at 10-1 odds represents Robert Gorham with Erik Barbaran riding. Gorham has maintained an 18-60 record recently and pairs with one of the meet’s leading jockeys.
Pace Analysis & Tactical Considerations
The 1 1/16-mile distance should produce moderate early fractions with 11 two-year-olds likely to respect each other early. Crown the Buckeye’s tactical speed allows him to secure favorable position without engaging in destructive early pace battles. His demonstrated ability to press moderate fractions before accelerating gives him a significant tactical advantage.
Timothy Hamm’s five-horse entry creates fascinating tactical scenarios. With multiple runners, Hamm can employ varying strategies – some pressing pace, others stalking, and potentially one or two closing from the back. This numerical advantage could prove decisive if the race develops into a tactical battle.
No More Cents must prove he can rebound from his disappointing Cleveland Kindergarten effort. His debut victory suggests ability, but the magnitude of his last defeat raises questions about his true quality level compared to Crown the Buckeye.
Key Angles
Revenge Factor: The Crown the Buckeye vs. No More Cents rivalry adds compelling drama. Crown the Buckeye turned their first meeting completely around, suggesting he may have established clear superiority.
First-Crop Sire: Yaupon’s success as a first-crop sire with 11 winners and two stakes winners provides confidence in Crown the Buckeye’s genetic foundation.
Trainer Form: Timothy Hamm’s exceptional recent statistics (40 wins in 160 starts) make his five-horse assault particularly dangerous. His current hot streak suggests multiple runners could factor.
Distance Advantage: The step up to 1 1/16 miles should favor horses with stamina-oriented pedigrees, potentially helping longer shots while testing pure speed horses.
Wagering Recommendations
Win/Place: Crown the Buckeye offers solid value at 6-5 odds given his dominant last performance and proven superiority over his main rival.
Exacta Strategy: Key Crown the Buckeye over the Hamm quintet, particularly Water Into Wine as the shortest price among the five. Also consider Crown the Buckeye over No More Cents for the direct rivalry angle.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Crown the Buckeye on top with No More Cents, Water Into Wine, and Mark My Words filling the second and third positions. The Hamm runners provide excellent depth coverage.
Longshot Special: Global Event (#6) from the Hamm stable at 15-1 could provide exceptional value if the trainer’s hot streak continues and pace dynamics favor his tactical approach.
The race presents an outstanding opportunity to support the proven Crown the Buckeye while respecting Timothy Hamm’s current exceptional form with multiple value alternatives.
Race 8 – $100,000 Best of Ohio Sprint Stakes (6F)
The $100,000 Best of Ohio Sprint Stakes for three-year-olds and upward at six furlongs represents the premier sprint event for Ohio-bred horses. This Grade 3-level race typically attracts the state’s top sprinters and serves as a crucial test for horses targeting year-end honors in Ohio’s breeding program.
Key Contenders
Empire’s Fire (#7) enters as the defending champion and 5/2 favorite with Jose Bracho riding for Jeffrey Radosevich. The six-year-old Empire Way gelding captured this race impressively in 2024 and has maintained excellent form throughout 2025 with three wins from five starts. His 2024 victory established him as Ohio’s sprint champion, and he brings proven class at this level with multiple stakes wins including the Cardinal Stakes.
The Radosevich/Bracho combination has been exceptionally effective with a 38% win rate from 24 starts in recent statistics, ranking among the top jockey-trainer partnerships in the region. Empire’s Fire’s breeding by Empire Way provides proven sprint speed, while his mare Victoria’s On Fire brings additional tactical versatility. His familiarity with Mahoning Valley’s track characteristics provides a significant home-course advantage.
Superwolf (#4) presents the primary challenge at 3/1 odds with Erik Barbaran aboard for Robert Gorham. This three-year-old son of freshman sire Instagrand became that stallion’s first stakes winner when capturing the 2024 Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes at this same venue. His victory established Instagrand as a promising young sire with 13 winners from his first crop.
Superwolf’s development pattern suggests continued improvement as he matures, with his stakes victory coming against older horses demonstrating exceptional class. The Gorham stable has maintained strong form throughout 2025, and Barbaran’s tactical expertise suits the colt’s racing style perfectly.
Secondary Choices & Value Plays
Fortissimo (#6) represents excellent value at 7/2 odds with Laureano Sosa riding for Timothy Hamm. The three-year-old finished second to Superwolf in last year’s Sprint Stakes, establishing his credentials at this level. Hamm’s exceptional 2025 statistics (37% win rate with Rocco Bowen from 46 starts) reflect his current hot streak, making any runner from his barn dangerous.
Stage Name (#3) provides Hamm’s second entry at 6/1 odds with Rocco Bowen aboard. The five-year-old brings proven stakes form, including a victory in the Honey Jay Stakes where he defeated Empire’s Fire earlier this season. This prior victory over the favorite establishes him as a legitimate threat if the pace sets up favorably.
Henry Mac (#2) could offer longshot value at 8/1 odds for the Jeffrey Radosevich stable with Luis Rivera riding. The seven-year-old veteran brings experience and tactical speed that could prove effective if the pace becomes contested early.
Pace Analysis & Tactical Considerations
The six-furlong distance typically produces honest early fractions with multiple speed horses likely to engage from the start. Empire’s Fire’s tactical speed allows him to secure favorable position without engaging in destructive pace battles. His proven ability to rate behind moderate fractions before accelerating gives him strategic advantages.
Timothy Hamm’s dual entry with Stage Name and Fortissimo creates interesting tactical scenarios. With two runners, Hamm can employ different strategies – potentially one pressing pace while the other stalks or closes. This numerical advantage could prove decisive in a competitive sprint field.
The eight-horse field provides manageable competition while maintaining enough depth for legitimate wagering opportunities across all exotic bets.
Key Angles
Defending Champion: Empire’s Fire’s 2024 victory in this exact race provides significant confidence. His three wins from five starts in 2025 demonstrate maintained form at this level.
Trainer Hot Streaks: Both Jeffrey Radosevich (38% win rate with Bracho) and Timothy Hamm (37% win rate overall) bring exceptional current statistics. These hot streaks suggest both trainers have their horses in peak condition.
Revenge Factor: Stage Name’s earlier victory over Empire’s Fire in the Honey Jay Stakes adds compelling drama to their rematch.
First-Crop Sire Success: Superwolf represents the promising Instagrand stallion, whose first crop has produced 13 winners including multiple stakes performers.
Wagering Recommendations
Win/Place: Empire’s Fire offers solid value as the defending champion with proven class and excellent connections at 5/2 odds.
Exacta Strategy: Key Empire’s Fire over Superwolf and the Hamm entry (Stage Name/Fortissimo). Also consider Superwolf over Empire’s Fire for the upset scenario.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Empire’s Fire and Superwolf in the top two positions with Stage Name, Fortissimo, and Henry Mac filling out deeper coverage.
Value Special: Stage Name at 6/1 represents excellent overlay potential given his prior victory over Empire’s Fire and Hamm’s exceptional current form.
Trainer Angle: Consider exactas and trifectas using both Radosevich and Hamm runners, as their combined statistics suggest multiple contenders from these hot barns.
The race presents an outstanding opportunity to support the proven defending champion while maintaining coverage on legitimate threats from trainers displaying exceptional current form.
Race 9 – $100,000 Best of Ohio Distaff Stakes (1 1/8M)
The $100,000 Best of Ohio Distaff Stakes for fillies and mares three years old and upward at 1 1/8 miles represents the premier event for Ohio-bred females. This Grade 3-level race has produced multiple champions and serves as the crown jewel of the Ohio mare division, with last year’s winner Generous Lover capturing the race by an astounding 26 3/4 lengths and earning Ohio Horse of the Year honors.
Key Contenders
Candlelight Hours (#6) emerges as the 2/1 favorite with veteran jockey T.D. Houghton aboard for James Jackson. The six-year-old Dominus mare delivered a spectacular performance in her most recent stakes victory, capturing the $100,000 Best of Ohio Pay the Man Stakes at Thistledown as a $10.80 upset winner. This victory demonstrated her ability to win at the highest level of Ohio-bred competition and established her credentials for today’s challenge.
T.D. Houghton brings exceptional experience with over 6,000 career victories, making him one of only 20 jockeys in North American history to reach that milestone. His recent statistics at Mahoning Valley show 2 wins from 10 starts with earnings of $39,611, indicating selective opportunities with quality mounts. The Jackson/Houghton combination has been effective throughout 2025, particularly with Candlelight Hours in stakes company.
My Girl Kew (#5) provides the primary challenge at 5/2 odds with Jareth Loveberry riding for Michael Maker. This represents the third leg of what could be a remarkable triple crown for the Maker/Loveberry partnership, having already identified Cast Your Spell (Race 6) and Crown the Buckeye (Race 7) as major contenders in earlier stakes races. Maker’s exceptional career statistics include 794 wins from 6,378 starts with over $12.2 million in earnings.
The four-year-old recently scored a convincing victory on August 29, 2025, winning by comfortable margins in a $27,000 allowance event for three-year-olds and up fillies and mares. Her proven ability at Mahoning Valley combined with the red-hot Maker stable form makes her extremely dangerous.
Secondary Choices & Proven Stakes Performers
Here’s the Spider (#3) brings legitimate stakes credentials at longer odds with Oscar Villarreal riding for Yoni Orantes. This four-year-old Tapiture filly finished second in last year’s Best of Ohio Distaff behind champion Generous Lover, establishing her as a proven performer at this level. Her career statistics of 21 starts with 5 wins, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds for $264,686 in earnings demonstrate consistent quality.
Here’s the Spider represents Tapiture’s stakes success, as the stallion has produced multiple black-type performers including this proven distaff competitor. Her familiarity with this exact race gives her significant tactical advantages, particularly if she can improve upon last year’s runner-up effort.
Green Lady (#8) provides exceptional recent form with John McKee riding for Thomas Drury Jr.. The four-year-old captured the $75,000 Miss Southern Ohio Stakes at Belterra Park on September 19, 2025, as a $26.00 winner, demonstrating her current peak form. This victory came at the identical 1 1/16-mile distance, proving her effectiveness at today’s route demands.
Value Opportunities & Longshots
Minestress (#1) could offer value with Luis Rivera aboard for Jeffrey Radosevich. The proven Radosevich/Rivera combination has been effective throughout the meet, and their success rate makes any runner from this partnership worth serious consideration in the exotics.
She’s Crafty (#8) represents an intriguing longshot with Joam Toledo riding for Robert Guciardo. The eight-year-old veteran brings experience and could benefit from a pace setup that favors closers.
Pace Analysis & Tactical Considerations
The 1 1/8-mile distance typically produces moderate early fractions with the eight-horse field providing manageable competition. Candlelight Hours’ tactical versatility allows her to employ different strategies depending on pace development. Her recent stakes victory demonstrated both early speed and sustained power through the stretch.
My Girl Kew’s proven ability at Mahoning Valley gives her home-course advantages, while the Maker training approach typically produces horses that improve with each start and peak for major objectives. Here’s the Spider’s prior experience in this exact race provides invaluable tactical knowledge of pace and positioning requirements.
Key Angles
Defending Division: Last year’s runner-up Here’s the Spider returns to attempt revenge against a field lacking the dominant Generous Lover.
Recent Stakes Form: Candlelight Hours’ commanding victory in the Pay the Man Stakes establishes her as the horse to beat at this level.
Trainer Triple Crown: The potential Maker/Loveberry sweep across three stakes races would represent exceptional training and jockey excellence.
Distance Specialist: Green Lady’s recent victory at the similar 1 1/16-mile distance demonstrates her current effectiveness at route racing.
Wagering Recommendations
Win/Place: Candlelight Hours offers solid value at 2/1 odds given her recent stakes victory and proven connections.
Exacta Strategy: Key Candlelight Hours over My Girl Kew for the battle between proven stakes form and hot connections. Also consider the reverse for upset potential.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Candlelight Hours and My Girl Kew in the top two positions with Here’s the Spider, Green Lady, and Minestress providing depth coverage.
Value Special: Green Lady at longer odds represents excellent overlay potential given her recent stakes victory and distance suitability.
Triple Crown Angle: Consider supporting My Girl Kew if backing the Maker/Loveberry combination across their three stakes opportunities today, creating potential for exceptional payoff scenarios.
The race presents outstanding opportunities to support proven stakes performers while maintaining coverage on improving horses with excellent connections.
Race 10 – $100,000 Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes (1 1/4M)
The $100,000 Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes for three-year-olds and upward at 1 1/4 miles serves as the championship test of stamina for Ohio-bred horses. This race represents the longest distance on the card and traditionally attracts the state’s premier staying horses, with this year’s field headlined by a compelling rematch between last year’s winner and runner-up.
Key Contenders
Who Dey (#7) returns as the defending champion and commanding even-money favorite with Willie Martinez riding for Thomas Drury Jr.. The four-year-old Liam’s Map colt captured this race in 2024 by a neck over Fair and Square in a thrilling finish, establishing himself as Ohio’s premier distance horse. Bred and owned by Maccabee Farm, Who Dey represents a classic homebred success story with career earnings exceeding expectations for his connections.
Willie Martinez’s nickname “Chillie Willie” reflects his cool demeanor under pressure, evident in his victory celebration post from last year’s Endurance Stakes triumph. His tactical expertise and patience make him ideally suited for the 1 1/4-mile distance, where positioning and timing prove crucial. Who Dey’s recent form shows a fourth-place finish on September 27, 2025, indicating he’s been kept active and fit for this defense of his crown.
Fair and Square (#6) provides the primary challenge at 2/1 odds with Rocco Bowen aboard for Timothy Hamm. The five-year-old gelding finished second to Who Dey by a heartbreaking neck in last year’s edition, establishing the foundation for today’s anticipated rematch. His recent workout pattern shows a solid three-furlong drill in 1:01.00 on October 18, 2025, suggesting peak fitness for this crucial opportunity.
Timothy Hamm’s exceptional 2025 statistics make Fair and Square particularly dangerous, as the trainer has maintained hot form throughout the meet with multiple stakes contenders. The Hamm/Bowen combination has proven highly effective, and their recent success rate provides confidence in Fair and Square’s preparation.
Historical Perspectives & Proven Stakes Performers
I Wanna Win (#3) brings championship credentials as the 2022 winner of this exact race. Now nine years old, this veteran campaigner for James Jackson has proven his mastery of the 1 1/4-mile distance with his commanding 8 1/4-length victory three years ago. Jackson’s career statistics of over $19 million in lifetime earnings demonstrate his ability to maintain older horses at peak effectiveness.
The horse’s 2022 triumph came under jockey Malcolm Franklin, but today Luis Rivera takes the mount. Rivera’s tactical expertise and proven success at Mahoning Valley could provide the veteran with renewed opportunities at generous 15/1 odds.
Tantrum (#2) represents Timothy Hamm’s second entry at 12/1 odds with Laureano Sosa aboard. This six-year-old brings impressive credentials as the 2021 Best of Ohio Juvenile winner, demonstrating his quality from an early age. His connection to the Hamm stable’s current hot streak makes him a legitimate exotic contender despite recent form questions.
Value Opportunities & Tactical Considerations
Private Moment (#1) could provide significant value at 6/1 odds with Alexander Chavez riding for Mary Hurley. This four-year-old showed excellent recent form with victories on November 21, 2024, and September 23, 2024, demonstrating his ability to win at this level. His victory on sloppy conditions at Mahoning Valley in November 2024 indicates versatility and track familiarity.
The Hurley stable has maintained consistent form with Private Moment, and his 2025 season includes competitive efforts against similar company. At 6/1 odds, he represents excellent value for exotic players seeking alternatives to the favored duo.
Pace Analysis & Distance Dynamics
The 1 1/4-mile distance demands exceptional stamina and tactical positioning, with early pace typically moderate as horses respect the grueling distance. Who Dey’s proven ability to rate behind moderate fractions before accelerating gives him strategic advantages, particularly with Martinez’s patient riding style.
Timothy Hamm’s dual entry creates interesting tactical scenarios with Fair and Square and Tantrum potentially employed in different strategies. Fair and Square could press the pace or stalk, while Tantrum might be held for a late rally, giving Hamm multiple tactical options depending on race development.
The seven-horse field provides manageable competition while maintaining enough quality for legitimate championship stakes racing.
Key Angles
Revenge Factor: Fair and Square’s narrow defeat to Who Dey in 2024 by just a neck sets up compelling drama in their direct rematch.
Defending Champion: Who Dey’s proven mastery of this distance and track combination provides significant confidence, with his 2024 victory demonstrating peak ability.
Historical Success: I Wanna Win’s 2022 triumph in this exact race shows his championship quality, though age becomes a factor at nine years old.
Trainer Hot Streak: Timothy Hamm’s exceptional current form with multiple quality horses suggests both Fair and Square and Tantrum could factor significantly.
Wagering Recommendations
Win/Place: Who Dey offers solid value as the defending champion with proven class at even-money odds, though the price reflects market respect for his credentials.
Exacta Strategy: Key the Who Dey vs. Fair and Square rematch in both directions, as their 2024 finish suggests another close battle. Also consider Private Moment over both favorites for upset potential.
Trifecta Coverage: Use Who Dey and Fair and Square in the top two positions with I Wanna Win, Private Moment, and Tantrum providing depth coverage for the longer shots.
Value Special: Private Moment at 6/1 represents exceptional overlay potential given his recent victories and proven ability at this track.
Historical Angle: I Wanna Win at 15/1 provides tremendous longshot value for bettors willing to support the 2022 champion’s comeback attempt.
The race presents outstanding opportunities to support the defending champion while maintaining coverage on legitimate threats seeking revenge and value alternatives with proven stakes credentials.
Jockey Notes & Insights
Luis Rivera has multiple strong mounts including Our Lady Peace (Race 1) and Shadow Strike (Race 4), both expert selections. Rivera continues to be among the leading riders at the current meet with excellent tactical ability.
Jose Bracho pairs with Jeffrey Radosevich for Vecchi (Race 3) and Empire’s Fire (Race 8), both prime contenders. This jockey-trainer combination has been highly successful.
Jareth Loveberry teams with Michael Maker for Cast Your Spell (Race 6) and Crown the Buckeye (Race 7), representing the meet’s most powerful combination.
Trainer Notes & Insights
Jeffrey Radosevich saddles three expert selections today with strong jockey partnerships. His horses have been running consistently well throughout the meet.
Michael Maker brings two major stakes contenders and has been dominant in Ohio-bred stakes races. His horses typically improve with racing and should be respected.
Richard Zielinski has multiple runners throughout the card and maintains a strong stable at Mahoning Valley.
Wagering Strategies & Value Plays
Early Daily Double: Our Lady Peace (Race 1) with Gamboling Ghost (Race 2) offers solid value based on expert selections.
Pick 3 Opportunity: Races 6-7-8 featuring Cast Your Spell, Crown the Buckeye, and Empire’s Fire provides an attractive wager on three stakes races.
Late Pick 4: The final four races include three $100,000 stakes events, creating excellent late Pick 4 value with manageable field sizes.
Value Plays: Look for exacta and trifecta opportunities in the stakes races where shorter fields create better payoff potential while maintaining reasonable win odds on top selections.
Best Bets: Empire’s Fire in Race 8 and Who Dey in Race 10 represent the strongest individual plays based on form, connections, and expert consensus.
