Posted inAnalysis Reports

Finger Lakes Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the August 31, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Finger Lakes Racetrack — Race Day Analysis

Sunday, August 31, 2026

Race Day Overview

Finger Lakes Racetrack in Farmington, New York closes out the August racing calendar with an eight-race Sunday card featuring a mix of claiming, maiden, and allowance competition. First post is set for 12:55 PM Eastern. The card offers a range of distances from six furlongs up to a mile and a sixteenth, with surfaces all on the main dirt track. Total purse money distributed today comes in just under $141,000 across eight races, with the highlight of the afternoon being the allowance sprint in Race 6 worth $27,300 and the allowance mile-and-a-sixteenth in Race 5 worth $26,900.

The card is headlined by allowance conditions in Races 5, 6, and 7, drawing some of the better horses currently stabled at Finger Lakes. The Monmouth Park meet has been drawing headlines this weekend, including Saturday's Sorority Stakes win by Emphatic, and the buzz around the Travers Stakes at Saratoga is building heading into Labor Day weekend. Locally at Finger Lakes, trainer Paul Barrow has four horses entered across the card, making him one of the dominant stables to watch today. The Ferraro barn — both Michael Ferraro and M. Anthony Ferraro — also have multiple entries spread across the afternoon.

Claiming prices today range from $5,000 at the bottom of the card up to $11,000, reflecting the typical late-summer regional track conditions at Finger Lakes. The maiden $5,000 claimer in Race 2 is the lone maiden event on the card, contested at a testing mile and three-sixteenths on the dirt. New York-bred restrictions are noted on Races 3, 7, and 8, which limits eligibility and typically produces more predictable form cycles at regional tracks.

Weather and Track Conditions

Late August in the Finger Lakes region of upstate New York typically brings warm, humid conditions with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. For Sunday, August 31, 2026, the Farmington area is forecast to see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s at post time. There is a moderate chance of scattered showers developing in the early-to-mid afternoon, which could affect the track surface as the card progresses.

If rainfall arrives before or during the early races, the Finger Lakes main track — a one-mile oval with a conventional dirt surface — could be listed as sloppy or muddy by mid-card. Track superintendents at Finger Lakes have generally maintained a good base through the summer meet, and the strip tends to dry relatively quickly given its sandy composition. However, any significant rainfall totals could leave the surface wet or sealed through the late afternoon races.

A wet track at Finger Lakes historically does not dramatically alter pace dynamics, but horses with demonstrated wet-track form should receive a modest upgrade, particularly in the claiming ranks where form consistency is the primary separator. A sealed track at Finger Lakes can actually favor front-runners in sprint distances, as the surface tends to compress and hold speed.

If the track comes up fast, conditions favor horses with good early energy numbers and tactical positioning, particularly in the six-furlong sprints. Wind is forecast from the southwest at 8-12 mph, which will be a slight headwind down the backside and a marginal tailwind in the stretch — a relatively neutral factor.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Finger Lakes features a one-mile oval with turns of moderate radius. The track historically plays fairly even-handed, though during summer months when the surface is maintained firm and fast, there is a slight advantage to horses that can establish position in the first turn, particularly in sprint distances where the run to the first turn is relatively short.

In sprint races at six furlongs, inside posts (1 through 3) carry a modest advantage due to the shorter run to the turn, allowing horses to settle into rail position without burning excessive energy. However, post 1 can be a disadvantage if a horse is expected to stalk from off the pace, as there is limited room to maneuver early. For routes, the inside bias is less pronounced, and mid-draw posts (3 through 5 in full fields) have historically produced solid results at this oval.

In the mile and three-sixteenths route events (Races 2 and 3), the extra distance at this one-mile track means horses complete a significant portion of the first turn before reaching the backstretch, which can disadvantage very wide draws. Posts 1 through 4 are preferred in these longer dirt route events.

Late-meet bias notes at Finger Lakes suggest the track has been playing slightly speed-favoring in sprints throughout August, with front-runners and horses that press the pace within a length winning at a solid clip. Closers have been effective in routes, where the pace tends to be more honest and the extra distance allows for a sustained run in the lane.

RACE 1 — Post (12:55)/11:55/10:55/9:55 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n1y | BUM | Purse $14,000

Six furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares that have not won a race in the past year, with a $5,000 claiming tag. A six-horse field goes to post in this opener, and the morning line has Thin Legs (5) installed as the 2-1 favorite.

Pace Analysis

With six horses and a variety of running styles, the early pace here figures to be moderate. Thin Legs (5) and Bustinroxy (2) both appear to have early speed tendencies and could apply pressure from the outset. Practical Rachel (1) from the rail also has the profile of a presser. The result is a pace scenario that could set up honest fractions but is unlikely to produce a truly fast pace that collapses all closers. A moderate early pace with two or three horses trading blows through the first quarter could set up the winner in the four-to-five furlong range.

Key Contenders

Thin Legs (5), trained by James Acquilano and piloted by M.A. Davila Jr., is the morning line choice at 2-1 for good reason. This mare fits the conditions squarely — the “not won in a year” condition is designed for horses finding their level after extended absences from the winner's circle. Trainer Acquilano has a working relationship with this claiming level at Finger Lakes and has demonstrated a knack for placing horses in spots where they can fire fresh. At six furlongs on the dirt, Thin Legs (5) should be forwardly placed and is the horse to beat.

Bustinroxy (2), trained by Eskei E. Beech and ridden by Jacqueline A. Davis, comes in at 3-1 on the morning line. Davis is one of the more consistent jockeys at Finger Lakes and often finds winners at longshot prices for claiming barns. Bustinroxy (2) is another front-runner type, and if she can establish position early with Davis guiding her, she has the profile of a legitimate threat to the favorite.

Secondary Choices

Practical Rachel (1) breaks from the rail for trainer Ilmar Loaiza and jockey O. Gomez. The inside post in a six-horse sprint is workable, and Practical Rachel (1) has the conditioning and connections that are active and winning at this meet. At 4-1, she offers modest value if Thin Legs (5) and Bustinroxy (2) engage each other and leave the door open for a closer or stalker off the pace.

Only In My Dreams (4), trained by David Oyola and ridden by Andre Shivnarine Worrie at 5-1, is the pace scenario beneficiary if the speed collapses. Worrie has been a dependable journeyman rider at Finger Lakes, and trainer Oyola places horses effectively at this price range. If the fractions get honest, Only In My Dreams (4) could sweep past the tiring leaders in the final stages.

Longshots

Tumbles (3), trained by Julius Ashley and ridden by Laird O. Bailey, goes off at 5-1. Bailey is not among the more active jockeys today, which slightly dampens enthusiasm, but Tumbles (3) is not without a chance at these modest conditions. The 5-1 price is fair for a horse that needs the leaders to set a hot pace.

Jackson Avenue (6), at 6-1 for trainer Ronald Breed Jr. and jockey L.E. Perez, is the most likely longshot play. Perez is one of the more active and effective riders on today's card, and being paired with a 6-1 shot in an opener suggests this horse may be better than her odds. Worth a small show bet or inclusion in exotics at this price.

Selections

Win: Thin Legs (5) Place: Bustinroxy (2) Show: Practical Rachel (1)

Betting Strategy: Thin Legs (5) is a straightforward win single in this opener. For exactas, key Thin Legs (5) over Bustinroxy (2) and Practical Rachel (1). A small part of Bustinroxy (2) on top at 3-1 adds value to the ticket. Include Jackson Avenue (6) underneath in trifecta coverage given Perez's effectiveness today.

RACE 2 — Post (1:24)/12:24/11:24/10:24 — 1760f | D | M | Md 5000 | BUM | Purse $13,500

A mile and three-sixteenths dirt maiden claiming event at $5,000 — among the most difficult races to handicap on any card, as these are maidens at rock bottom claiming prices. The two co-favorites are My Devine One (3) and Come Monday (6), both at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

At a mile and three-sixteenths, pace is a critical factor. Spicey Ticey (1) and Dancinwiththeboys (2) figure to have the most early speed in the field based on their positions and connections. If those two engage early, it could set up a pace meltdown that benefits closers. My Devine One (3) and Come Monday (6) are both expected to come from off the pace at this route distance, which aligns well with a hot early pace scenario.

Key Contenders

My Devine One (3), trained by Dana Saul and ridden by Jose Baez, is a co-favorite at 2-1. The Saul barn is active at Finger Lakes, and Baez is a capable jockey at the route distance. In maiden claiming company at this level, connections matter as much as form, and trainer Saul has shown the ability to place horses in winnable spots. At a mile and three-sixteenths, My Devine One (3) will likely settle behind the pace and make her run in the final quarter mile.

Come Monday (6), also at 2-1, runs for trainer Michael Ferraro and jockey L.E. Perez. Having two horses in the same race from the Ferraro barn (DANCINWITHTHEBOYS at post 2) is worth noting — Perez picking up Come Monday (6) over the stablemate suggests the connections view Come Monday (6) as the stronger of the pair. Perez is one of the most active jockeys on today's card, and Come Monday (6) from an outside post in a route race should have clean air throughout.

Secondary Choices

Only La Duss (4), trained by Thalia Areche and ridden by Kevin Navarro at 5-1, is the most interesting price in the field. Areche is a relatively smaller barn, and getting a 5-1 price in a six-horse maiden claimer at this level suggests there may be underlier value here. Navarro is reliable, and if Only La Duss (4) can find a forward position without burning energy, this horse has a legitimate chance to upset.

Spicey Ticey (1), for trainer Tamara Housel and jockey Keiber J. Coa, is the early speed element. Coa is a top jockey and his presence on Spicey Ticey (1) at 4-1 suggests Housel believes in this horse's chances. If the pace does not get contested early, Spicey Ticey (1) could wire the field, but at a mile and three-sixteenths, wire-to-wire wins in maiden claiming company are the exception.

Longshots

Dancinwiththeboys (2), at 8-1 for trainer Michael Ferraro and jockey Luis Pena, is the second Ferraro entry. Given the trainer's preference for Come Monday (6) via the Perez assignment, Dancinwiththeboys (2) is downgraded but cannot be ignored entirely in exotics at 8-1.

Capo Da Monte (5), at 12-1 for trainer Matthew Clarke and jockey Ramon M. Mulero, is a significant longshot. Clarke's Redoubtableripken (3 in Race 3) draws more attention as the barn's better prospect today, and Capo Da Monte (5) at 12-1 in maiden claiming company is likely a throwout for win purposes but worth a small trifecta inclusion given the long price.

Selections

Win: Come Monday (6) Place: My Devine One (3) Show: Only La Duss (4)

Betting Strategy: The co-favorites make exotic wagering tricky. A small exacta box of My Devine One (3) and Come Monday (6) is the safe play, but for value, use Only La Duss (4) underneath both in trifectas. Spicey Ticey (1) is worth a small win play at 4-1 if you like a front-runner at the route distance.

RACE 3 — Post (1:53)/12:53/11:53/10:53 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 5000n3l | BUN | Purse $13,800

A mile and an eighth for New York-breds that have not won three races, at a $5,000 claiming price. Percy (5) is installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, and this looks like a solid spot for the Ferraro M. Anthony barn.

Pace Analysis

At a mile and an eighth for New York-breds, the pace scenario here will likely be set by horses trying to get position around the first turn. Maturation (1) from the rail has to be considered a pace factor given the inside post, while Redoubtableripken (3) and Renaissance Man (2) figure to be mid-pack types that benefit from a solid early pace. Percy (5) and Real Eleve (4) are likely to be positioned closer to the pace, making for a moderate-to-honest pace through the first half mile.

Key Contenders

Percy (5), trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and ridden by L.E. Perez, is the clear choice at 2-1. Ferraro's barn has been reliable at Finger Lakes, and Perez aboard is a consistent positive. At a mile and an eighth for New York-breds, Percy (5) fits the conditions precisely and should be positioned to make a mid-turn move when asked. This is a horse the handicappers see as a cut above in this field.

Real Eleve (4), at 3-1 for trainer Katlynn Gutterson and jockey Joel Cruz, is the main danger. Gutterson is a very active trainer at this meet and has two horses in this race, with Real Eleve (4) getting the lower morning line price and the Cruz assignment. Cruz has been effective at Finger Lakes, and Real Eleve (4) has the look of a horse that could press the pace and grind to the wire at this distance.

Secondary Choices

Renaissance Man (2), at 4-1 for trainer Katlynn Gutterson and jockey Jacqueline A. Davis, is the second Gutterson entry. Gutterson's preference for Real Eleve (4) is noted, but Renaissance Man (2) with Davis up should not be ignored. Davis is a solid rider who understands this circuit, and at 4-1 with a trainer that has multiple live horses on the card, Renaissance Man (2) has value in exotics.

Redoubtableripken (3), at 4-1 for trainer Matthew Clarke and jockey O. Gomez, offers an interesting angle. Clarke's barn has Capo Da Monte (5) in Race 2 at 12-1, but this is clearly the more prominent connection with Gomez in the irons. If Redoubtableripken (3) can secure a good trip in this field, an upset at 4-1 is quite possible.

Longshots

Maturation (1), at 5-1 for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley and jockey Kevin Navarro, is worth a small play from the rail. Buckley is active on today's card, and Navarro is a reliable jockey. The inside post could be an asset at this route distance if Maturation (1) can get clean positioning early.

Makar (6), at 8-1 for trainer Ilmar Loaiza and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie, is the longest price in this field. Loaiza also saddles Practical Rachel (1) in Race 1 and Timely Reward (5) in Race 6, so the barn is active today. Makar (6) at 8-1 is a square price for a New York-bred route race at this level, and while a win would be an upset, third-place finishes for this type at 8-1 are worth covering in trifectas.

Selections

Win: Percy (5) Place: Real Eleve (4) Show: Renaissance Man (2)

Betting Strategy: Percy (5) is a strong single at 2-1. For exactas, key Percy (5) over Real Eleve (4), Renaissance Man (2), and Redoubtableripken (3). In trifectas, use Percy (5) on top over those same horses plus Maturation (1). A small reverse exacta of Real Eleve (4) over Percy (5) adds modest insurance at a favorable price.

RACE 4 — Post (2:22)/1:22/12:22/11:22 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 11000n3l | BUM | Purse $17,800

Seven furlongs on the dirt for horses that have not won three races, at an $11,000 claiming price. Spun Size (1) is installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite.

Pace Analysis

Seven furlongs is a distance that rewards tactical speed — horses that can settle into position in the opening quarter and then extend through the far turn and into the stretch. Spun Size (1) from the inside post should be near the pace if not on the lead. Clarividente (4) and Big Advantage (2) figure as potential pace pressers, setting up what could be an honest pace through the half mile. If three horses engage in the early stages, the closing types like Classiwest (3) or Jessica's Ride (6) could make a late run.

Key Contenders

Spun Size (1), trained by Charlton Baker and ridden by L.E. Perez, is the 2-1 morning line choice. Baker is a trainer who places horses well at the claiming level, and Perez at 2-1 on the rail in a seven-furlong event is a workmanlike assignment. The inside post is an asset here, allowing Perez to establish position economically out of the gate. Spun Size (1) is expected to be on or near the pace throughout.

Clarividente (4), at 3-1 for trainer Luis A. Gutierrez and jockey N.R. Alvarado, is the logical main rival. Alvarado is a strong rider with experience at multiple levels of the game, and being assigned to a 3-1 shot at this meet suggests a horse with legitimate credentials. Clarividente (4) should have tactical speed to stay near Spun Size (1) through the middle stages.

Secondary Choices

Big Advantage (2), at 4-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey Jeremias Flores, is worth close attention. Barrow has multiple horses entered today, and his horses have been showing consistent form at Finger Lakes. If Big Advantage (2) can keep pace with the co-favorites through the opening stages, a seven-furlong test suits horses with tactical ability. Flores has been effective this meet.

Jessica's Ride (6), at 4-1 for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley and jockey Kevin Navarro, is a closer type that will need the pace to be genuine. Buckley is active on the card today, and Jessica's Ride (6) at 4-1 from an outside post in a seven-furlong race suggests a stalker that will be making her move around the far turn. Navarro is a reliable hand in this situation.

Longshots

Classiwest (3), at 8-1 for trainer Katlynn Gutterson and jockey Emanuel De Diego, is the longshot with the most upside in exotics. Gutterson has multiple horses on today's card and an 8-1 price in a six-horse field suggests this horse needs things to fall perfectly, but De Diego is a rider who can find the right spots in traffic.

Nurse Bunny (5), at 6-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey O. Gomez, is the second Barrow entry and should be considered a pace factor alongside Big Advantage (2). Barrow having two horses in the same race is an interesting angle — if the barn's intent is to control the pace, then Nurse Bunny (5) and Big Advantage (2) working in tandem (even unintentionally) could soften up the field for either one to win. Gomez is an experienced jockey who handles pace scenarios well.

Selections

Win: Spun Size (1) Place: Clarividente (4) Show: Big Advantage (2)

Betting Strategy: Spun Size (1) at 2-1 is a solid win choice, but the double Barrow barn entry creates complexity. An exacta box of Spun Size (1) and Clarividente (4) at fair prices is the primary bet. In trifectas, use those two on top and include Big Advantage (2), Jessica's Ride (6), and Nurse Bunny (5) in the third slot.

RACE 5 — Post (2:51)/1:51/12:51/11:51 — 1760f | D | A | Alw 26900n3l | BUM | Purse $26,900

A mile and three-sixteenths allowance for horses that have not won three races — the stakes class of the first half of the card. Early On (4) is the 1-1 morning line favorite, and trainer Saffie A. Joseph Jr. is one of the most accomplished conditions on this race card.

Pace Analysis

In this mile and three-sixteenths allowance, the pace dynamic hinges largely on whether Lipan Law (6) or Moonlight Gal (2) is willing to push the tempo. Going Home Now (1) from the extreme inside should have early speed intent. If Early On (4) is allowed to rate kindly behind a moderate pace, the race sets up perfectly for her late run. However, if Lipan Law (6) with Keiber J. Coa aboard sends to the lead, the fractions could be more genuine and closer types get a better look.

Key Contenders

Early On (4), trained by Saffie A. Joseph Jr. and ridden by Christopher Elliott, is the clear public choice at 1-1. Joseph is a nationally prominent trainer who also operates at regional tracks when conditions merit, and having a 1-1 morning line shot in a Finger Lakes allowance suggests this horse is expected to be significantly better than the field. Elliott is a capable jockey who should be able to rate Early On (4) behind the early pace and make a decisive run when asked. At even money, this is a horse for win purposes only.

Moonlight Gal (2), at 4-1 for trainer Chris Englehart and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie, is the logical main alternative. Englehart also has Prince Of Dance (6) in Race 7, making this a dual-barn afternoon. Englehart is a highly respected trainer in New York's regional circuit and produces horses that run up to their ability consistently. Moonlight Gal (2) at 4-1 is a fair price for a horse with sound tactical speed.

Secondary Choices

Lipan Law (6), at 4-1 for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro and jockey Keiber J. Coa, pairs two very active names from today's card. Coa is among the top jockeys at this meet, and Ferraro has shown the ability to develop allowance-quality horses. If Lipan Law (6) can set a manageable pace from the outside post, the horse is capable of lasting into the top three at a generous price.

Rubies For Olivia (3), at 5-1 for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley and jockey Joel Cruz, is a horse worth including in trifecta coverage. Buckley has multiple horses entered today and is clearly having an active meet. At 5-1, Rubies For Olivia (3) represents solid value to hit the board in this allowance contest.

Longshots

Sugartown Sweetie (5), at 6-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey Jeremias Flores, is another Barrow barn entry in a prominent race. If Barrow's horses have been running with energy at the route distance, Sugartown Sweetie (5) at 6-1 has a case as a place/show play in exotics.

Going Home Now (1), at 15-1 for trainer Judy E. Turetsky and jockey C. Russell, is the extreme longshot. Russell is a less-prominent rider on today's card, and 15-1 in a five-horse race is steep odds. Going Home Now (1) would need significant pace collapse to factor, and while pace collapse is possible, it is not the probable scenario with Early On (4) expected to make a big middle move.

Selections

Win: Early On (4) Place: Moonlight Gal (2) Show: Lipan Law (6)

Betting Strategy: Early On (4) at 1-1 is a single in the Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences but poor value for a straight win bet. The best approach is to use Early On (4) as a single in multi-race exotics while investing the win money in an exacta with Moonlight Gal (2) and Lipan Law (6) underneath. A trifecta of Early On (4) / Moonlight Gal (2) / Lipan Law (6) and Rubies For Olivia (3) is the target bet.

RACE 6 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1210f | D | A | Alw 27300b | BUM | Purse $27,300

Six furlongs on the dirt — a non-restricted allowance, which brings out the best horses at Finger Lakes today. Galileans Girl (2) and Princess Wadadli (6) share co-favorite billing at 2-1. This is the marquee race of the afternoon.

Pace Analysis

Six furlongs with allowance horses typically produces the fastest fractional times of the meet. Galileans Girl (2) and Timely Reward (5) both project as forward-going horses. Queens Over Threes (1) from the rail may also have early speed intent. If Galileans Girl (2) gets uncontested on the lead, she could be very dangerous in a fast pace scenario. Princess Wadadli (6) from the far outside figures to be a stalker-to-closer type who benefits if the speed horses battle. Zhen Lou (3) and Idyll Gossip (4) are the mid-pack types that could sweep past tiring speed.

Key Contenders

Galileans Girl (2), trained by Linda K. Dixon and ridden by N.R. Alvarado, is a co-favorite at 2-1 with the tactical speed advantage. Dixon is an established trainer at Finger Lakes who places horses in appropriate spots, and Alvarado is among the best riders available on this circuit. If Galileans Girl (2) can find the lead without a prolonged battle, her six-furlong pace credentials make her dangerous.

Princess Wadadli (6), at 2-1 for trainer Robert N. Falcone Jr. and jockey Christopher Elliott, is the other co-favorite. Falcone Jr. is a trainer who has been sending out horses in sharp form in August, and Elliott is a dependable jockey who handles closing assignments efficiently. From the outside post, Princess Wadadli (6) will need a clear run, and Elliott should be able to find that in a six-horse allowance sprint.

Secondary Choices

Idyll Gossip (4), at 4-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey Kevin Navarro, is Barrow's Race 6 entry and a legitimate contender at a price. Navarro has been riding with confidence at Finger Lakes, and Idyll Gossip (4) from a middle post should find a good stalking position as the speed horses establish themselves. At 4-1, this is the value play in this race.

Timely Reward (5), at 5-1 for trainer Ilmar Loaiza and jockey L.E. Perez, is another live option. Loaiza is active throughout the card, and Perez navigating a 5-1 shot in a six-horse allowance sprint is worth noting. Timely Reward (5) could press the pace and last if the co-favorites engage each other early.

Longshots

Zhen Lou (3), at 6-1 for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro and jockey Keiber J. Coa, is a live underdog. D'Alessandro is a smaller barn at Finger Lakes, but Coa's presence in the irons at 6-1 suggests there is some confidence in this horse's fitness. In a six-horse sprint, 6-1 is a manageable price for trifecta coverage.

Queens Over Threes (1), at 12-1 for trainer Jacqueline Falk and jockey T.B. Alpander, is the extreme longshot. The rail post in a six-horse allowance sprint is not ideal for a 12-1 horse, but if Queens Over Threes (1) has tactical early speed and gets a pocket ride, the price is generous enough to use underneath in trifectas.

Selections

Win: Galileans Girl (2) Place: Princess Wadadli (6) Show: Idyll Gossip (4)

Betting Strategy: Galileans Girl (2) on top in exactas over Princess Wadadli (6) and Idyll Gossip (4) is the primary investment. A small reverse with Princess Wadadli (6) on top adds insurance. In trifectas, use Galileans Girl (2) and Princess Wadadli (6) on top over Idyll Gossip (4), Timely Reward (5), and Zhen Lou (3). The co-favorite price on both top choices means the exacta may return surprisingly well if Galileans Girl (2) beats Princess Wadadli (6).

RACE 7 — Post (3:49)/2:49/1:49/12:49 — 1210f | D | A | Alw 24500n1x | BUN | Purse $24,500

Six furlongs on the dirt for New York-breds that have not won an allowance race — an eight-horse field with Apollo Code (7) installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite.

Pace Analysis

With eight horses going six furlongs, pace here could be contentious. Apollo Code (7) is likely to have tactical speed, while Stars N Stones (2) and Prince Of Dance (6) could also be forwardly placed early. The inside post of TWO THIRTY A.M. (1) could create traffic scenarios. If three horses push the pace, the closers in the field — including This Time Yes (3) and Sir Kartrite (5) — could sweep past tired speed in the final stages. Swift Bank (8) from the extreme outside is the pure closing type.

Key Contenders

Apollo Code (7), trained by Raymond Handal and ridden by Christopher Elliott, is the 2-1 morning line choice. Handal is a trainer with a consistent record at regional tracks in the Northeast, and Elliott picking up Apollo Code (7) over a full eight-horse field is a positive sign for the morning line favorite. At six furlongs on a track that has been playing slightly speed-favoring, Apollo Code (7) with tactical ability should be well placed throughout.

Stars N Stones (2), at 4-1 for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro and jockey Keiber J. Coa, is the primary threat. Ferraro and Coa have multiple bookings today, and this pairing in an allowance New York-bred sprint is a formidable combination. Stars N Stones (2) from post 2 should secure an ideal position early and be ready to challenge when asked. At 4-1, this is arguably the best value on the board in Race 7.

Secondary Choices

Prince Of Dance (6), at 4-1 for trainer Chris Englehart and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie, is the Englehart barn's Race 7 entry following Moonlight Gal (2) in Race 5. Englehart has been sharp this meet, and Prince Of Dance (6) at 4-1 with Worrie up in a six-furlong New York-bred allowance is a solid betting proposition. If the pace gets honest, Englehart's horse should have the energy to run through the stretch.

Sir Kartrite (5), at 5-1 for trainer Michele Tasso and jockey Joel Cruz, is the stalker type in this field. Cruz is an effective jockey who tends to be patient early and finds runs in the stretch, making him well-suited to a horse with late pace. At 5-1, Sir Kartrite (5) is worth using in trifectas if you believe the pace will collapse.

Longshots

This Time Yes (3), at 6-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey Emanuel De Diego, is another Barrow entry. Barrow has spread horses across the card today, and at 6-1 in a New York-bred allowance, This Time Yes (3) is worth including in trifecta and superfecta combinations.

TWO THIRTY A.M. (1), at 8-1 for trainer Debra A. Breed and jockey N.R. Alvarado, gets an upgrade with Alvarado in the irons. Alvarado is riding at a high level today with multiple mounts, and while TWO THIRTY A.M. (1) is an 8-1 shot, the rider's ability to navigate the rail post and find position makes this a marginal trifecta inclusion.

Courageoous Oh La (4), at 12-1 for trainer Linda K. Dixon and jockey Jacqueline A. Davis, is a longer shot in this eight-horse field. Dixon also saddles Galileans Girl (2) in Race 6, and Courageoous Oh La (4) at 12-1 appears to be the lesser of the Dixon barn's afternoon.

Swift Bank (8), at 15-1 for trainer Beth Miller-Saul and jockey Steven Fret, is the longest shot in the race. Fret is a less-active rider on today's card, and 15-1 in an eight-horse New York-bred allowance is very steep. Swift Bank (8) would need a complete pace collapse, but at 15-1 in superfecta tickets, the price is worth including for bottom-slot coverage.

Selections

Win: Apollo Code (7) Place: Stars N Stones (2) Show: Prince Of Dance (6)

Betting Strategy: Apollo Code (7) is the single, but Stars N Stones (2) at 4-1 is the value bet of the race. An exacta box of Apollo Code (7) and Stars N Stones (2) returns well if either wins. Add Prince Of Dance (6) in trifectas underneath those two. The 4-1 co-price on Stars N Stones (2) and Prince Of Dance (6) means the trifecta could return handsomely.

RACE 8 — Post (4:18)/3:18/2:18/1:18 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 11000b | BUN | Purse $18,100

Seven furlongs on the dirt for New York-breds — a nine-horse claiming field to close the card. Doc Advantage (5), The Institute (6), and Uncle George (7) are all listed at 4-1 on the morning line, giving the race three co-favorites heading to post.

Pace Analysis

A nine-horse field at seven furlongs with three co-favorites is one of the more complex pace puzzles on the card. Mayheminthepalace (1) from the inside and Lookin' Super (2) both figure to have early speed. Stormin Sammy (4) may also be forwardly placed. If three or four horses go to the front, the pace will be genuinely testing, setting up the field for a strong late run by closers. Doc Advantage (5) and The Institute (6) both project as horses that will be positioned to pounce on tiring leaders in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Doc Advantage (5), trained by Paul Barrow and ridden by Jeremias Flores, is one of three co-favorites and Barrow's second entry of the race (alongside FLOWING RIVER at post 8). Barrow has been very active today, and having two horses in the finale is a notable angle. Flores is among the more active jockeys today, and at 4-1, Doc Advantage (5) from post 5 should find an ideal stalking position. Barrow's mid-card horses have been sharp and this is the horse the handicappers lean toward of the three co-favorites.

The Institute (6), at 4-1 for trainer Michael Ferraro and jockey L.E. Perez, is the Ferraro barn's finale entry. Perez has had multiple mounts through the card, and The Institute (6) is a New York-bred that fits the conditions precisely. Ferraro is active at this claiming level, and Perez's experience navigating the Finger Lakes stretch is a positive.

Secondary Choices

Uncle George (7), at 4-1 for trainer Chris Englehart and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie, is the third co-favorite. Englehart has been one of the stronger trainers at the Finger Lakes meet through August, with two other horses performing well on this card. Uncle George (7) with Worrie up from post 7 should find tactical room in a nine-horse field and could produce a late-running performance.

Sutton Breeze (3), at 5-1 for trainer Dana Saul and jockey Jose Baez, is an interesting price. Saul has My Devine One (3) in Race 2, and this barn being active at the $11,000 claiming level in the finale is worth noting. Baez is a solid rider, and Sutton Breeze (3) at 5-1 offers marginal overlay value given the three co-favorites likely attracting most of the public money.

Longshots

Lookin' Super (2), at 6-1 for trainer Timothy P. Murphy and jockey M.A. Davila Jr., is a front-running type with the early speed to complicate matters for the field. Murphy is a smaller stable, and 6-1 in a nine-horse claiming finale is reasonable for a horse with pace ability.

Mayheminthepalace (1), at 8-1 for trainer Ilmar Loaiza and jockey Joel Cruz, is Loaiza's finale entry and gets a major rider upgrade with Cruz. Despite the 8-1 morning line, Mayheminthepalace (1) with Cruz from the inside post could steal the race if allowed to control the tempo unchallenged.

Stormin Sammy (4), at 10-1 for trainer Rachel Sells and jockey Christopher Elliott, is a moderate longshot getting a solid jockey booking. Elliott has been active today and does not typically take throw-in mounts. Stormin Sammy (4) at 10-1 is worth a small trifecta inclusion.

Flowing River (8), at 10-1 for trainer Paul Barrow and jockey O. Gomez, is the second Barrow entry. As discussed in the Barrow trainer notes below, dual entries can create pace dynamics that benefit one horse or the other. Flowing River (8) at 10-1 is the longer-priced Barrow horse, but Gomez's ability to find position from post 8 is a moderate positive.

He Has It All (9), at 12-1 for trainer Joseph E. Marino and jockey Steven Fret, is the longest shot in the race. From the extreme outside at post 9, He Has It All (9) would need a significant inside pace battle to set things up for a wide sweeping run. Worth including only in the fourth and fifth slots of superfecta tickets.

Selections

Win: Doc Advantage (5) Place: The Institute (6) Show: Uncle George (7)

Betting Strategy: With three co-favorites, the exacta pool could be compressed, and trifectas and superfectas offer the best value in this finale. Key Doc Advantage (5) on top over The Institute (6), Uncle George (7), and Sutton Breeze (3) in trifectas. A superfecta using Doc Advantage (5) and The Institute (6) on top over those same four horses is the recommended structure. Mayheminthepalace (1) and Stormin Sammy (4) at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively should be in the superfecta's bottom two slots for potential big payouts.

Jockey Notes and Insights

L.E. Perez is the busiest jockey on today's card with mounts in nearly every race, including Spun Size (1) in Race 4, Percy (5) in Race 3, Come Monday (6) in Race 2, Timely Reward (5) in Race 6, and The Institute (6) in Race 8. Perez's multiple bookings across different trainers — Baker, Ferraro, Ferraro M. Anthony, Loaiza — speak to his versatility and his status as one of the go-to riders at Finger Lakes this meet. Riders with this volume of bookings tend to be dialed in to track conditions and pace dynamics, giving them an edge over part-time participants.

Keiber J. Coa appears in Race 2 on Spicey Ticey (1), Race 5 on Lipan Law (6), and Race 6 on Zhen Lou (3). Coa is a legitimate top-level jockey who has competed at major tracks and brings a pedigree that exceeds typical Finger Lakes competition. His presence on Lipan Law (6) in the Race 5 allowance at 4-1 is the most noteworthy angle — a jockey of Coa's caliber accepting a 4-1 mount in a regional allowance suggests the connections believe strongly in this horse's chances.

Christopher Elliott rides Early On (4) in Race 5, Princess Wadadli (6) in Race 6, Apollo Code (7) in Race 7, and Stormin Sammy (4) in Race 8. Elliott's four-mount day includes two favorites or co-favorites in Races 5 and 7, meaning the afternoon could hinge significantly on Elliott's ability to deliver top performances. His booking on Apollo Code (7) in the Race 7 allowance is particularly important given the competitive eight-horse field.

Kevin Navarro is aboard Maturation (1) in Race 3, Jessica's Ride (6) in Race 4, Only La Duss (4) in Race 2, and Idyll Gossip (4) in Race 6. Navarro's afternoon is diverse across multiple trainers, and his mount on Idyll Gossip (4) in the Race 6 allowance is the one to watch most closely. If Barrow has Idyll Gossip (4) in sharp condition, Navarro at 4-1 in a six-horse allowance sprint is a prime value play.

Joel Cruz picks up Real Eleve (4) in Race 3, Rubies For Olivia (3) in Race 5, Sir Kartrite (5) in Race 7, and Mayheminthepalace (1) in Race 8. Cruz's booking on Mayheminthepalace (1) at 8-1 in the finale is worth noting — Cruz is a capable jockey who typically has a reason for accepting longer-priced mounts, and the inside post gives Mayheminthepalace (1) a tactical advantage.

Jacqueline A. Davis rides Bustinroxy (2) in Race 1, Renaissance Man (2) in Race 3, and Courageoous Oh La (4) in Race 7. Davis has been a productive jockey at Finger Lakes over multiple meet seasons, with particular strength in route events. Her mount in Race 1 is the most live of the afternoon.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Paul Barrow is today's highest-volume trainer with horses in six of eight races: Big Advantage (2) and Nurse Bunny (5) in Race 4, Sugartown Sweetie (5) in Race 5, Idyll Gossip (4) in Race 6, This Time Yes (3) in Race 7, and Doc Advantage (5) and Flowing River (8) in Race 8. Barrow's stable volume is a clear sign of a barn operating at capacity during the late-summer meet, and trainers running this many horses on one card often have at least two or three legitimate winners. The dual entries in Race 4 and Race 8 are worth tracking for pace dynamics. Historically, when Barrow doubles up in a race, one horse often serves as a pace-setter for the other, though this is not guaranteed. The Race 8 finale with Doc Advantage (5) and Flowing River (8) is the best example of this angle today.

M. Anthony Ferraro has horses in Race 3 (PERCY), Race 5 (LIPAN LAW), and Race 7 (STARS N STONES), while Michael Ferraro enters Dancinwiththeboys (2) and Come Monday (6) in Race 2 and The Institute (6) in Race 8. The combined Ferraro barn presence across the card is significant, and Percy (5) in Race 3 and Stars N Stones (2) in Race 7 are both strong plays based on the trainer's track record and jockey assignments.

Katlynn Gutterson saddles Renaissance Man (2) and Real Eleve (4) in Race 3, and Classiwest (3) in Race 4. Having two horses in Race 3 from the same trainer is a notable angle — bettors should follow which horse attracts more action near post time. The morning line preference for Real Eleve (4) at 3-1 over Renaissance Man (2) at 4-1 suggests the barn's confidence is slightly weighted toward Real Eleve (4), but both deserve respect in a six-horse claiming route for New York-breds.

Chris Englehart runs Moonlight Gal (2) in Race 5, Prince Of Dance (6) in Race 7, and Uncle George (7) in Race 8. Englehart is a trainer whose horses consistently run to form in the allowance ranks, and his three entries today represent a significant financial investment in this card. If Englehart has a horse ready to fire, Uncle George (7) at 4-1 in the finale is worth special attention as a potential overlay.

Jonathan B. Buckley trains Maturation (1) in Race 3, Jessica's Ride (6) in Race 4, and Rubies For Olivia (3) in Race 5. Buckley is active with a spread of claiming and allowance horses, and Rubies For Olivia (3) in the Race 5 allowance at 5-1 is his most interesting play.

Ilmar Loaiza saddles Practical Rachel (1) in Race 1, Makar (6) in Race 3, Timely Reward (5) in Race 6, and Mayheminthepalace (1) in Race 8. The four-mount afternoon shows Loaiza is a significant presence at this meet, and Timely Reward (5) in Race 6 with Perez up at 5-1 is the barn's best chance of the afternoon.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The late-card Pick 4 covering Races 5 through 8 is the recommended multi-race sequence for serious players today. The presence of Early On (4) at 1-1 in Race 5 is actually a gift — it allows you to single the favorite confidently in Race 5 and spread aggressively in Races 6, 7, and 8 where the outcomes are far less certain.

A recommended Pick 4 structure: Early On (4) single in Race 5, then use Galileans Girl (2) and Princess Wadadli (6) in Race 6, Apollo Code (7) and Stars N Stones (2) in Race 7, and Doc Advantage (5), The Institute (6), and Uncle George (7) in Race 8. A 1x2x2x3 structure creates 12 combinations and covers the most likely outcomes in each race at a manageable ticket cost.

For the Pick 5 starting in Race 4, the recommended structure includes Spun Size (1) as a partial single in Race 4, Early On (4) as a full single in Race 5, then spreading in Races 6, 7, and 8 as described above. A 2x1x2x2x3 structure with 24 combinations is the target.

The best value exacta on the card is Stars N Stones (2) over Apollo Code (7) in Race 7, which would combine two 4-1 and 2-1 prices for a potentially significant return if the Ferraro-Coa combination upsets the morning line favorite.

The best single-race trifecta play is Race 8, where three co-favorites compress the win pool and shift value into the exotics. Using Doc Advantage (5) on top over The Institute (6), Uncle George (7), Sutton Breeze (3), and Mayheminthepalace (1) in a 1x2x4 trifecta structure targets a well-structured payout with solid coverage.

The top win value play of the afternoon is Stars N Stones (2) in Race 7 at 4-1. The Ferraro-Coa combination in a New York-bred allowance sprint at post 2 is a situation where the morning line may underestimate the horse's true chances. If Stars N Stones (2) fires in this spot, the 4-1 return represents genuine overlay value against a 2-1 morning line favorite in a wide-open eight-horse field.

Today's best bet overall remains Early On (4) in Race 5. The Saffie Joseph Jr. connection at a regional track with a 1-1 morning line is a statement of quality, and while even money is not exciting for straight wagering, using Early On (4) as the single anchor of a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence is the cornerstone of today's wagering strategy.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback