Mountaineer – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for October 28, 2025

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Mountaineer Casino Racetrack hosts an eight-race card featuring a mix of claiming events, allowance races, and maiden claiming contests. The evening program begins at 7:00 PM with purses ranging from $8,000 to $20,000, providing solid betting opportunities across multiple class levels.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Current weather conditions show light rain showers with temperatures reaching a high of 58°F and dropping to 40°F overnight. East-southeast winds at 6 mph with gusts up to 23 mph and humidity at 66% create challenging conditions. Despite the precipitation forecast of 0.14 inches, the main dirt track is expected to maintain fast conditions given Mountaineer’s excellent drainage system. The track’s one-mile oval with its slight curve in the front stretch historically favors speed and early positioning.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – $10,000 Claiming (1 Mile)

This claiming event for three-year-olds and upward features a competitive field of seven horses at the $4,000 claiming level [user race card].

Key Contenders: Cool Quartet (#1) with Kevin Gonzalez aboard represents trainer Christi Flores and brings tactical speed to this distance. The horse should appreciate the route and can press the early pace. Sneads (#2) from trainer L. Craig Cox pairs with jockey Agustin Bracho and offers solid closing ability. My Indy (#4) with Luis Negron represents Jose Luna Silva, who is the leading trainer at the current meet.​

Secondary Choices: Confessor (#5) with Yan Aviles and trainer Eddie Clouston commands respect. Clouston is a four-time champion trainer at Mountaineer with over 2,000 career wins and currently leads in multiple statistical categories.​

Longshot Consideration: Free Rambling Man (#6) at longer odds could offer value with Bailey Weatherly in the saddle.

Pace Analysis: The race appears evenly matched for pace with moderate early speed expected. The mile distance should allow for tactical racing with the winner likely coming from mid-pack or closer.

Race 2 – $12,200 Claiming Fillies & Mares (5.5 Furlongs)

This sprint for fillies and mares at the $6,500 claiming level presents early speed angles [user race card].

Key Contenders: Sweet Queen Bee (#2) with Yan Aviles and trainer Eddie Clouston brings proven ability. Mercury Head (#6) with Edgar Paucar shows consistent form at this level. Scream Machine (#6) represents another Clouston runner with DeShaun Parker aboard.

Pace Analysis: The sprint distance favors early speed horses, particularly those drawn inside. The track’s bias toward front-runners becomes more pronounced in shorter races.

Race 3 – $18,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5.5 Furlongs)

The $18,000 Allowance Optional Claiming at 5 1/2 furlongs represents the highest-class event on Mountaineer’s Tuesday evening card. This West Virginia-bred restricted event for horses that have never won two races creates an intriguing betting proposition with quality local runners competing for significant purse money.​

Race Conditions Analysis

The race is restricted to accredited West Virginia-bred three-year-olds and upward with specific eligibility criteria. Horses can enter via two paths: either having never won two races or entering for a $10,000 claiming tag if they have never won three races. The weight assignments favor three-year-olds at 121 pounds versus older horses at 126 pounds, with an additional 3-pound allowance for non-winners since September 28, 2025.​

Detailed Horse Analysis

Prince Jeremy (#1) – 5/2 Morning Line Favorite
The three-year-old gelding by Cal Nation represents trainer Jami Poole with jockey Alejandro Gomez aboard. Recent form indicates Prince Jeremy won his last outing over course and distance, establishing him as the horse to beat. His 121-pound assignment provides a significant weight advantage over older rivals, and the combination with Gomez creates a solid tactical partnership. The horse appears to have the tactical speed necessary to secure good position in this sprint distance.​

Curb That Tiger (#2) – Part of Clouston Entry
The five-year-old gelding represents trainer Eddie Clouston with Joe Stokes in the saddle. Clouston’s recent form shows consistent success, including multiple wins throughout October. Stokes has been among the leading riders at the current meet, creating a proven combination. The horse carries 123 pounds and should appreciate the sprint distance based on recent performances.​

Baby Dog (#3) – Clouston Entry Partner
Trained by Eddie Clouston and ridden by DeShaun Parker, this four-year-old gelding creates the entry with Curb That Tiger. Parker brings exceptional credentials as Mountaineer’s all-time leading jockey with over 6,100 career wins. The Clouston-Parker combination has proven highly effective throughout the current meet. Baby Dog shows earnings of $1,813 per start with speed figures that suggest competitive ability at this level.​

Dancing King (#4) – Three-Year-Old Contender
The three-year-old gelding gets significant weight relief at 118 pounds with Ricardo Barrios aboard for trainer Jennifer Johnson. The reduced weight assignment creates an attractive betting angle, particularly in a sprint where every pound matters. Johnson has multiple runners throughout the card, suggesting confidence in her stable’s current form [user race card].​

Your Trophy Girl (#5) – Filly with Recent Form
This four-year-old filly represents trainer Jami Poole with Michael Pagan riding. As the only filly in the field, she receives a significant weight allowance at 113 pounds [user race card]. Recent analysis suggests she finished competitively in her last outing, running “a neck back from the leader”. The substantial weight advantage combined with recent good form creates solid value potential.​

Peaceful Warrior (#6) – Longshot Contender
The four-year-old gelding trained by Jennifer Johnson pairs with jockey Kyle Gilbert. Some international odds sources show him as high as 2/1, suggesting market respect despite longer odds domestically. The horse represents a stable with multiple runners on the card, indicating current stable form [user race card].​

Pace Analysis

The 5 1/2-furlong distance on Mountaineer’s main track typically favors horses with tactical early speed. Prince Jeremy’s recent course and distance victory suggests he can secure good early position. The Clouston entry brings proven sprint speed, with both Curb That Tiger and Baby Dog capable of pressing or stalking the early pace. Your Trophy Girl’s light weight assignment could make her dangerous if she breaks alertly.​

Key Angles and Wagering Strategy

Primary Angle: The Eddie Clouston entry creates the strongest betting angle in the race. Clouston leads multiple trainer categories at the current meet and has shown exceptional consistency with a 33% win rate in recent starts. The entry provides flexibility in exotic wagering while offering solid win potential.​

Secondary Angle: Three-year-old weight allowances favor both Prince Jeremy and Dancing King, who carry 121 and 118 pounds respectively versus older rivals at 123-126 pounds [user race card]. In sprint races, weight advantages become magnified.​

Value Angle: Your Trophy Girl’s 113-pound assignment represents a 10-13 pound advantage over male rivals, creating significant value potential at projected odds of 7/2. The filly’s recent competitive effort suggests current form.​

Recommended Wagering Approach

Win Betting: Prince Jeremy offers solid win value as the proven course and distance winner with favorable weight assignment. The Clouston entry provides backup options if the favorite falters.​

Exotic Play: Key the Clouston entry in exacta and trifecta combinations while including Prince Jeremy and Your Trophy Girl underneath. The filly’s weight advantage creates attractive longshot possibilities in vertical wagers.​

Suggested Tickets:

  • $2 Win: Prince Jeremy
  • $1 Exacta Box: Prince Jeremy, Baby Dog, Curb That Tiger
  • $1 Trifecta: Prince Jeremy over Baby Dog, Curb That Tiger over Your Trophy Girl, Dancing King, Peaceful Warrior

The race presents solid betting opportunities with the proven Prince Jeremy facing a quality Clouston entry, while Your Trophy Girl’s weight advantage creates value potential in a competitive West Virginia-bred allowance event.

Race 4 – $9,000 Claiming Fillies & Mares (1 Mile)

A competitive field of nine fillies and mares at the $4,000 claiming level [user race card].

Key Contenders: Girl Gone Wild (#3) with Joe Stokes brings tactical speed and route ability. Crystal Water (#4) offers three-year-old potential with Alejandro Gomez. Chainsaw City (#7) represents the Jose Luna Silva barn with Luis Negron.

Secondary Choices: Magically Vanished (#8) with DeShaun Parker commands respect at this level. My Fine Aquiline (#6) could offer value at longer odds.

Longshot Consideration: Vino Veloce (#9) with Jairo Hernandez represents trainer Xavier Rivera and could provide exotic value.

Pace Analysis: The mile distance allows for tactical racing with the winner potentially coming from any running style.

Race 5 – $8,500 Claiming (1 Mile)

A large field of ten horses seeking their first win since October 2024 [user race card].

Key Contenders: Charli Michael (#2) with Edgar Paucar represents Eddie Clouston and brings consistency. R Cardinal Prince (#3) offers tactical speed with Brandon Tapara. El Joy (#5) provides another Clouston runner with DeShaun Parker.

Secondary Choices: Distorted Limits (#6) with Alejandro Gomez represents trainer L. Craig Cox. Forever Lasting (#7) offers longshot potential with Kevin Gonzalez.

Pace Analysis: The large field suggests a contested early pace, potentially setting up closers.

Race 6 – $20,000 Allowance (1 Mile)

The $20,000 Allowance represents the evening’s feature event and richest purse, contested at the classic one-mile distance on Mountaineer’s main track. This allowance event targets horses that have never won four races or have not won a race in 2025, creating a competitive field with varying levels of recent form and class.​

Race Conditions Analysis

The eligibility requirements create two distinct categories of entrants: horses seeking their fourth career victory and those returning from extended layoffs. The weight scale assigns 121 pounds to three-year-olds and 126 pounds to older horses, with a significant 3-pound allowance for non-winners at a mile or over since September 28, 2025. This weight break adds another layer of class consideration and creates value angles for recent non-winners.​

Detailed Horse Analysis

Sir Maximus (#1) – Solid Win Contender
The four-year-old gelding represents the powerhouse combination of trainer Jose Luna Silva and jockey DeShaun Parker [user race card]. Silva currently leads all Mountaineer trainers with 356 starts, 83 wins, and earnings exceeding $807,000. His 23% strike rate demonstrates exceptional current form. Parker brings unparalleled credentials as Mountaineer’s all-time leading jockey with over 6,000 career wins and 4,566 victories at this specific track. This gelding carries 123 pounds, indicating he qualifies for the 3-pound weight allowance.​

Brady (#2) – Experienced Route Runner
The six-year-old gelding pairs veteran jockey Jose Davila with trainer Lawrence Antus [user race card]. At 126 pounds, Brady represents the top weight in the field, suggesting recent competitive efforts. The combination brings tactical speed suitable for the mile distance, and the horse’s age indicates seasoned racing experience that could prove valuable in a competitive allowance field.​

Tizawhitefacecat (#3) – Tactical Speed Angle
This four-year-old gelding represents trainer Denis Cluley with leading rider Kevin Gonzalez [user race card]. Recent handicapping reports suggest strong confidence in Gonzalez mounts throughout evening cards at Mountaineer. The horse carries 123 pounds, indicating weight allowance eligibility, and the name suggests quality breeding that could translate to class advantage.​

Jerry’s Out (#4) – Three-Year-Old Appeal
The three-year-old colt trained by Juan Vazquez creates the evening’s most intriguing betting angle with jockey Michael Pagan. At just 111 pounds, Jerry’s Out receives a massive 15-pound weight advantage over top-weighted Brady [user race card]. This dramatic weight differential in route races often creates upset potential, particularly when combined with three-year-old improving form. The horse represents trainer Juan Vazquez, who despite recent regulatory challenges, maintains active racing operations.​

Bartulia (#5) – Class Dropper
The six-year-old gelding represents trainer Moises Valdez with accomplished rider Alejandro Gomez. At 123 pounds, Bartulia qualifies for the weight allowance, suggesting recent struggles that could indicate either declining form or a setup for improvement. Valdez operates multiple horses throughout the card, indicating stable activity and potential inside information angles.​

Gone Boy (#6) – Second Vazquez Runner
This three-year-old colt creates an entry with Jerry’s Out under trainer Juan Vazquez. With Luis Negron aboard at 118 pounds, Gone Boy offers another significant weight advantage while providing exotic wagering flexibility [user race card]. The combination of youth, weight relief, and potential trainer confidence makes this an intriguing longshot consideration.​

Pace Analysis

The one-mile distance at Mountaineer typically develops into tactical affairs with moderate early fractions. Brady and Tizawhitefacecat figure to provide early pace, while Sir Maximus can employ tactical flexibility under Parker’s expert handling. The two three-year-olds benefit from substantial weight relief that becomes magnified over the mile distance, potentially allowing them to sustain competitive pace throughout.​

Key Angles and Wagering Strategy

Primary Angle: The Jose Luna Silva and DeShaun Parker combination represents Mountaineer’s most dominant trainer-jockey partnership. Silva’s 23% current strike rate paired with Parker’s unmatched track knowledge creates the strongest single betting angle.​

Secondary Angle: Three-year-old weight advantages favor Jerry’s Out and Gone Boy significantly. In allowance company, young horses receiving 8-15 pounds from older rivals often provide substantial value, particularly at routes where weight differentials compound over distance.​

Value Angle: Tizawhitefacecat with Kevin Gonzalez offers solid place and show value while providing exotic wagering flexibility. Recent reports indicate strong confidence in Gonzalez mounts throughout evening programs.​

Upset Angle: Jerry’s Out’s 15-pound weight advantage over Brady creates legitimate upset potential despite trainer concerns. Three-year-olds receiving maximum weight relief in allowance company represent classic value opportunities.​

Recommended Wagering Approach

Win Betting: Sir Maximus offers solid win value with the Silva-Parker combination’s proven excellence. The horse represents quality, proven connections with ideal positioning for allowance success.​

Place/Show Strategy: Focus on the two three-year-olds for place betting, as their weight advantages create strong chances for minor awards even if they cannot sustain winning efforts.​

Exotic Combinations:

  • Exacta: Key Sir Maximus over Jerry’s Out, Gone Boy, and Tizawhitefacecat
  • Trifecta: Sir Maximus over ALL over Jerry’s Out, Gone Boy for coverage
  • Superfecta: Include all six horses with Sir Maximus on top

Suggested Tickets:

  • $5 Win: Sir Maximus (#1)
  • $2 Exacta: 1 over 4,6,3 ($6 total)
  • $1 Trifecta: 1 over ALL over 4,6 ($10 total)

The race presents excellent betting opportunities with clear class distinctions, significant weight differentials, and proven connections facing improving three-year-olds in Mountaineer’s richest event of the evening.

Race 7 – $14,000 Starter Optional Claiming (5.5 Furlongs)

A competitive sprint for horses with starter eligibility [user race card].

Key Contenders: Gates of Heaven (#3) with DeShaun Parker represents Eddie Clouston and brings sprint speed. Misterchilliwilli (#4) offers tactical ability with Brandon Tapara. Face Abarrio (#7) provides closing punch with Victor Severino.

Secondary Choices: Boudin (#1) with Yan Aviles offers early speed potential. Workislife (#2) brings three-year-old appeal with Kevin Gonzalez.

Pace Analysis: The sprint distance favors early speed types, particularly those with inside draws.

Race 8 – $8,000 Maiden Claiming (5.5 Furlongs)

The evening concludes with maiden claiming action for horses seeking their first career victory [user race card].

Key Contenders: Power of Justice (#4) with Bailey Weatherly brings proven connections. El Kozan (#6) with Luis Negron offers potential improvement. Big Shot Bob (#7) provides three-year-old appeal with Ricardo Barrios.

Secondary Choices: Cometothedarkside (#3) with DeShaun Parker commands respect. Ballot Box (#8) offers experience with Yan Aviles.

Pace Analysis: Maiden races can be unpredictable, but early speed often prevails in sprints.

Wagering Strategy: Spread in exotic wagers while focusing on experienced connections.

Jockey Analysis

DeShaun Parker stands out as the evening’s top rider with over 6,100 career wins and status as Mountaineer’s all-time leading jockey. Parker’s multiple mounts provide consistent opportunities across the card.​

Joe Stokes brings strong current form as one of the leading riders at the current meet with multiple quality mounts throughout the evening.​

Yan Aviles pairs frequently with trainer Eddie Clouston and shows consistent performance in claiming events.​

Edgar Paucar demonstrates solid ability at this track with consistent form throughout the meet.​

Trainer Analysis

Eddie Clouston dominates the evening’s entries with multiple runners across several races. As a four-time champion trainer at Mountaineer with over 2,000 career wins, Clouston’s runners command automatic respect. His horses have earned over $14 million and show consistent performance at all levels.​

Jose Luna Silva currently leads the trainer standings with 83 wins from 356 starts and earnings exceeding $807,000. His tactical approach and consistent performance make him a key angle throughout the card.​

Jami Poole brings multiple runners and has established herself among the most active and successful trainers at Mountaineer.​

Wagering Strategy

The fast track conditions despite light rain favor speed horses throughout the card. Focus on early speed horses in sprint races, particularly Races 2, 3, 7, and 8, while the two route races (1, 4, 5, and 6) may offer more tactical opportunities.​

Consider keying Eddie Clouston-trained horses in multiple wagers, as this trainer has shown exceptional consistency throughout the current meet. The combination of Clouston with jockeys Parker, Aviles, and Stokes creates powerful angles for exotic wagering.​

The Pick 3 covering the final three races (6-7-8) could provide value opportunities with multiple competitive races offering attractive payouts.​

Best Single-Race Plays: Focus on Clouston runners in Races 2, 3, 5, and 7 for win betting while using DeShaun Parker mounts as key horses in exotic combinations across the card.

Multi-Race Sequences: Consider Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers focusing on trainer Eddie Clouston and jockey DeShaun Parker combinations while including tactical speed horses in route events.

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