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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.
Race 1 – Allowance (9:45 PM ET)
This allowance event features two-year-old fillies going six furlongs with a purse of $35,000. Keystone State emerges as the standout choice at 5/2 morning line odds with Angel Cruz aboard for trainer Cathal Lynch. The filly shows perfect statistics with a 100% win rate from one start and demonstrates strong predictive metrics with 29% win probability and 94% show percentage.
Song To Remember offers solid value at 3/1 odds with Jomar Torres riding for Todd Beattie. The filly shows a 33% career win rate with consistent form including a victory at Penn National over five furlongs. Angie’s Reward represents another threat at 4/1 odds with Angel Rodriguez aboard for Brandon Kulp, combining a perfect record from one start with strong trainer statistics.
The pace setup appears moderate with multiple horses showing different running styles. Weather conditions favor early positioning, making Keystone State and Angie’s Reward attractive options given their tactical advantages.
Race 2 – Claiming (10:14 PM ET)
This claiming race extends to one mile and 70 yards for three-year-olds and up with a purse of $17,800. Malibu Warrior opens as the 5/2 favorite stepping down in class after recent disappointing efforts. The horse brings proven ability and should benefit from the class relief in this competitive field.
Myluckeyvalentine at 3/1 odds comes off a recent victory and represents solid value with proven form. Uncle Arlys at 7/2 brings tactical speed that could prove decisive on a potentially tiring surface. Doctor’s Orders offers closing punch at 4/1 odds if the early pace becomes contested.
The extended distance favors horses with proven stamina, making Malibu Warrior and Myluckeyvalentine the primary focus. Weather conditions may impact the surface, potentially favoring horses with early positioning.
Race 3 – Claiming (10:43 PM ET)
This six-furlong claiming event features ten three-year-olds and up with a purse of $17,800. She’sarollingstone enters as the 3/1 favorite after narrowly missing in her last start and appears primed for improvement. Me Darlin Kathleen at 4/1 brings strong course form and represents solid value.
Cupid Missed offers compelling odds at 5/1 after a recent victory, while Waterloo Rose at 6/1 with Angel Cruz provides additional value. The pace appears honest with multiple speed types likely to engage early, creating opportunities for both pressers and closers.
Longshot considerations include Quit Quay, Bonita Lassie, and Pretty Lily, all at 8/1 odds and capable of improvement with proper trip development. The competitive nature of this field suggests focusing on exacta and trifecta combinations.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming (11:12 PM ET)
Race 4 at Penn National features an allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds and up going six furlongs on the main track with a purse of $36,000. Post time is scheduled for 7:12 PM ET in this competitive field of eight horses.
Key Contenders
Quick Tempo emerges as the clear class of the field with impressive statistics showing a 55% win rate from 29 career starts and earnings of $441,939. The Jamie Ness trainee with Martin Chuan aboard draws the rail at 5/2 morning line odds and shows consistent speed figures with a “Fast Leads” running style. His recent form shows a win at 5.5 furlongs followed by a sixth-place finish, indicating readiness for this distance. The combination of Ness and Chuan represents solid connections with Ness showing a 22% win rate and 57% in-the-money percentage.
Dr. Steve offers the most value among the primary contenders at 2/1 morning line odds with Andrew Wolfsont riding for trainer Flint Stites. The gelding shows a strong 32% win rate from 25 career starts with earnings of $257,239 and demonstrates “Fast Leader” tendencies. His recent form includes a second-place finish at Penn National over six furlongs, suggesting he fits this condition perfectly. Wolfsont brings a 17% win rate and 52% in-the-money percentage to the partnership.
Yahoo Omar represents another legitimate threat at 4/1 morning line odds with Julio Hernandez aboard for trainer Andrew Simoff. The gelding shows a 33% win rate from 18 career starts with $153,100 in earnings and “Fast Leads” running style. His recent Delaware form includes a second at 5.5 furlongs and wins at shorter distances, indicating tactical speed that could prove decisive. Hernandez brings strong statistics with a 22% win rate and 53% in-the-money percentage.
Secondary Choices
Party At Sam’s draws attention at 9/2 morning line odds with Andy Hernandez riding for Michael Moore. The gelding shows solid consistency with a 20% win rate from 30 starts and $266,150 in earnings. His recent form includes third-place finishes at Parx and Penn National, indicating competitive ability in this class. The “Mid Pack Leads” style suggests tactical flexibility that could benefit from pace dynamics.
Debit Card offers value at 8/1 morning line odds despite showing the strongest overall winning percentage at 30% from 27 career starts. Ricardo Chiappe takes the mount for trainer Flint Stites with the gelding showing $424,539 in career earnings. His “Fastest Closer” running style could prove advantageous if the early pace becomes contested, though recent form shows mixed results.
Longshot Considerations
Kiss Them Deadly at 8/1 morning line odds brings recent winning form with Vladimir Diaz aboard for trainer Alisa Sarson. The gelding shows a 21% win rate from 19 starts and just won at Penn National over five furlongs. The step up in distance presents questions, but the recent victory demonstrates current form.
Bolt Of Aurum rounds out the field at 7/1 morning line odds with Eliseo Ruiz riding for Jorge Duarte Jr. Despite modest recent form, the gelding shows $224,922 in career earnings and could improve with the class relief.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup appears contested with multiple speed horses including Quick Tempo, Dr. Steve, and Yahoo Omar all showing “Fast Leads” or “Fast Leader” running styles. This creates an advantage for closers like Debit Card if the early pace becomes hot and unsustainable. The six-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position early without compromising their closing kick.
Weather conditions may favor horses with early speed positioning, as a potentially tiring track surface could make late rallies more difficult. The presence of multiple speed horses suggests an honest pace that should set up well for both pressers and closers with proper trip development.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The trainer angle favors Jamie Ness with Quick Tempo, as his 22% win rate and 57% in-the-money percentage represent the strongest statistics among the connections. Flint Stites trains both Dr. Steve and Debit Card, giving the barn multiple chances in a competitive field.
The jockey statistics favor Julio Hernandez aboard Yahoo Omar with his 22% win rate leading all riders in the field. Martin Chuan brings 15% win rate with Quick Tempo, while Andrew Wolfsont shows 17% aboard Dr. Steve.
Primary wagering strategy should focus on Quick Tempo as the morning line favorite with the strongest overall profile. Dr. Steve offers excellent value at 2/1 odds given his recent form and connections. Yahoo Omar provides solid overlay potential at 4/1 with strong rider statistics and tactical speed.
Exacta combinations should center on Quick Tempo over Dr. Steve and Yahoo Omar, with reverses covering both scenarios. The trifecta should include Party At Sam’s and Debit Card as value plays underneath the top choices. Weather conditions and pace scenario favor the speed horses, making early position crucial for success in this competitive allowance field.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming (11:41 PM ET)
This maiden event for two-year-old geldings at 5.5 furlongs presents Fine Diamond at 3/1 as the morning line choice. Rochester Castle at 7/2 and Mysterioso at 4/1 provide competitive alternatives with Showmance at 5/1 completing the primary contenders.
The field includes several first-time starters, creating uncertainty and potential value opportunities. Constantine at 10/1 represents significant overlay value with experience advantages over the newcomers. Weather conditions may favor horses with early speed positioning given the short distance.
Race 6 – Allowance (8:10 PM ET)
Race 6 at Penn National features an allowance event for three-year-olds and up geldings and colts going six furlongs on the main track with a purse of $35,000. This competitive field of eight horses presents several intriguing betting angles with a mix of speed and closing types that should create an honest pace scenario.
Key Contenders
Brother Rice emerges as the morning line favorite at 3/2 odds with Julio Hernandez aboard for trainer Elisha Perez. The gelding shows impressive recent form with a 30% win rate from 10 career starts and $82,230 in earnings. His “Fast Closer” running style perfectly suits the projected pace scenario with multiple speed horses entered. Recent performances include a third at Penn National over six furlongs followed by another third and a win, demonstrating consistent competitive ability. The Hernandez-Perez combination brings strong statistics with Hernandez showing a 22% win rate and 53% in-the-money percentage.
Bermuda Run represents excellent value at 5/2 morning line odds with David Cora riding for Timothy Kreiser. The gelding shows the strongest overall earnings profile with $377,825 from 38 career starts and a “Fastest Stalker” running style that positions him perfectly behind the early speed. Recent form includes a win at Parx Racing over six furlongs followed by consistent placing efforts at Penn National. His 35% win probability and 95% show percentage lead the field in predictive metrics. The Cora-Kreiser partnership brings solid credentials with Cora showing an 18% win rate and 53% in-the-money percentage.
Tropandhagen offers compelling value at 3/1 morning line odds with Silvestre Gonzalez aboard for Paulina Sinnefia. The gelding demonstrates strong recent form with a win at Penn National over six furlongs in his last start. His “Fast Closer” style matches Brother Rice’s tactical approach, creating potential for a strong finishing kick. Career statistics show a 19% win rate from 16 starts with $143,280 in earnings. The combination shows promise with Gonzalez bringing a 15% win rate and solid placement statistics.
Secondary Choices
Bronx Boys draws attention at 7/2 morning line odds with Angel Rodriguez riding for Brandon Kulp. The gelding shows consistent form with $249,530 in career earnings from 24 starts and a “Fast Leads” running style. Recent performances include a third at Penn National in a one-mile race followed by placing efforts over six furlongs. The Rodriguez-Kulp combination brings impressive statistics with Rodriguez showing a 24% win rate and 60% in-the-money percentage, while Kulp maintains a 29% win rate.
Backside Buzz represents solid value at 4/1 morning line odds with Jean Aguilar aboard for Michael Catalano Jr. The gelding shows the highest career earnings at $547,290 from 31 starts, indicating consistent quality throughout his career. His “Fast Leads” style suggests early positioning advantages, though recent form at Parx and Penn National shows mixed results.
Longshot Considerations
Mo Says at 11/1 morning line odds offers intriguing value with Ricardo Chiappe riding for Bruce Kravets. Despite limited career experience with only two starts producing one win and one place finish, the gelding shows a 50% win rate and 100% show percentage. His “Slowest Leader” designation could prove advantageous if the early pace becomes contested.
Going At It and Mo Money Mo Money both carry longshot odds at 11/1 and 14/1 respectively. Going At It shows recent form with a second-place finish at Penn National, while Mo Money Mo Money brings versatility with experience at multiple tracks.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup appears contested with multiple “Fast Leads” types including Bronx Boys, Going At It, and Backside Buzz all likely to engage early. This creates excellent opportunities for the closers Brother Rice and Tropandhagen, along with stalker Bermuda Run who can secure ideal position behind the early leaders.
The six-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without compromising their closing kick. Weather conditions may impact the track surface, potentially favoring horses with early speed positioning if the surface becomes tiring.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
The trainer statistics strongly favor Brandon Kulp with Bronx Boys, showing a 29% win rate and 65% in-the-money percentage. Elisha Perez brings solid credentials with Brother Rice at 31% win rate and 52% placement percentage.
Jockey statistics favor Angel Rodriguez aboard Bronx Boys with a 24% win rate leading all riders in the field. Julio Hernandez with Brother Rice shows 22% win rate, while David Cora brings 18% aboard Bermuda Run.
Primary wagering strategy should focus on Brother Rice as the class horse with proven closing ability and strong connections. Bermuda Run offers excellent value at 5/2 odds given his superior earnings and tactical advantage. Tropandhagen provides solid overlay potential at 3/1 with recent winning form.
Exacta combinations should center on Brother Rice and Bermuda Run in either order, with Tropandhagen as a value play. The trifecta should include Bronx Boys given his strong connections and tactical speed. The superfecta recommendation of 6-2-3-5 (Bermuda Run, Bronx Boys, Brother Rice, Backside Buzz) offers solid profit potential based on the pace dynamics and class levels.
Weather conditions and pace scenario favor the closers and stalkers, making Brother Rice, Bermuda Run, and Tropandhagen the primary focus for serious handicappers in this competitive allowance field.
Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming (8:39 PM ET)
This $20,000 starter optional claiming race features three-year-old and up fillies going six furlongs. Vanaka emerges as a contender at 3/1 odds with Angel Cruz aboard for Lynn Ashby, showing solid form with multiple placings from nine starts.
Rozzyroo at 7/2 brings recent Penn National form with consistent effort patterns, while the field presents several horses with competitive records at this claiming level. The pace appears moderate with tactical positioning crucial for success.
The claiming nature of this race creates opportunities for trainer moves and class adjustments, making recent form and connections particularly important in handicapping.
Race 8 – Claiming ($17,000)
Limited information is available for this claiming race, but Equibase suggests a $2 show bet on the #1 horse, indicating some confidence in that runner’s ability to hit the board. The race appears to feature older horses in competitive claiming company.
Without complete entries, focus should be on horses with recent form at Penn National and proven ability at this claiming level. Weather conditions will continue to play a role in surface preparation and running styles.
Race 9 – Claiming ($12,000)
This claiming race for three-year-old and up fillies and mares goes one mile with a purse of $12,000. Mary’s Reward stands out at 3/1 morning line odds with Angel Rodriguez aboard for Brandon Kulp, showing strong recent form with a victory at Penn National over six furlongs.
The Feisty One at 5/2 with Francisco Martinez brings consistent form and “Fast Stalker” running style that should position her well behind the early pace. Unbounded Movement offers value at 4/1 odds with solid place consistency from twelve starts.
The mile distance creates stamina demands that favor horses with proven route form. The Rodriguez-Kulp combination shows strong statistics with Rodriguez posting a 28% win rate and Kulp maintaining 38% trainer success. The pace setup appears contested with multiple lead types, creating opportunities for stalkers and closers.
Padrino’s Gold at 7/2 and other longshot alternatives provide trifecta and superfecta value if the favorites falter. The competitive claiming level suggests focusing on recent form and trainer patterns rather than class advantages.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel Cruz continues to show solid form at regional tracks with consistent placement rates. Cruz maintains strong statistics with 51 wins and a 19.17% win rate, making him a reliable choice in claiming company. His mount Waterloo Rose in Race 3 represents solid value.
Jomar Torres brings 16% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage to his mount Fine Diamond in Race 5. Torres shows particular effectiveness with closers and should benefit from the projected pace scenario.
Ricardo Chiappe rides for trainer George Albright in Race 5, representing a solid trainer-jockey combination with 36 starts producing a 14% win rate and 39% place percentage.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bernard Houghton saddles both Fine Diamond and Showmance in Race 5, giving the barn multiple opportunities in the competitive maiden event. Houghton’s horses typically show improvement in second and third starts.
George Albright trains both Pergamon and Constantine in Race 5, demonstrating confidence in his two-year-old program. Albright’s 23 starts have produced a 17% win rate and 48% in-the-money percentage, indicating solid preparation methods.
The trainer statistics suggest focusing on horses making second or third career starts, as regional trainers often need time to develop their young horses properly.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The evening’s best value opportunities center on Race 2 with the Malibu Warrior-Myluckeyvalentine exacta combination offering solid potential returns. Race 3 provides trifecta value using She’sarollingstone with Me Darlin Kathleen and Cupid Missed in multiple combinations.
Race 5 presents the strongest value play with Constantine at 9/1 representing significant overlay odds based on the horse’s experience and earnings record. The maiden race offers excellent trifecta opportunities using Fine Diamond, Constantine, and Rochester Castle in various combinations.
Weather conditions favor horses with tactical speed and those proven on wet surfaces. The claiming races provide the most reliable wagering opportunities, while the maiden race offers higher risk-reward scenarios. Focus on exacta and trifecta plays rather than win betting given the competitive nature of the card and uncertain track conditions.
