How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:32 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 4 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000 | |
| Win: | 12 – Peace Mission (5/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Shinobu (9/2) |
| Show: | 8 – Maddy Mania (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Validida (8/1), 9 – Stirrup (6/1), 3 – Alliemae (15/1), 6 – Racheli (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Kabin Eight (12/1), 11 – Fan's Choice (30/1), 10 – Sharply (30/1), 7 – Newhope (15/1), 4 – Aloha Kim (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-2-9-3-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-11-2-8-1-12-9-3-6-4-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Lockdownyourtown (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Heartbeat (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Storm Cloud Rising (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Hollybygolly (4/1), 5 – Belle Ofthe Dance (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Noroomformischief (10/1), 3 – Mom's Cheesecake (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-7-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Elewene (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Cruisin In Harmony (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Marblehead (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Valkyrie (7/2), 2 – Sweet Mary (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Sharpie Girl (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-4-2-6-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Arcoven (10/1) |
| Place: | 2 – T V Time Out (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Super Saiyajin (50/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Chancery (10/1), 5 – Ebitda (15/1), 6 – Flip Flop Freak (4/1), 7 – Taxi (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Runnin Out Of Time (9/2), 9 – Kashville (12/1), 10 – Honest Truth (6/1), 11 – Prestissimo (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-8-10-3-5-6-2-7-4-1-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Freaks Go (3/1) |
| Place: | 8 – Tizianna (4/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Quinn's Promise (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Quick To Charm (9/2), 6 – Brunia (9/2), 2 – Mcsniper (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Ashes And Diamonds (5/1), 5 – Rockin The Lane (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-4-6-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-5-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Fools Rush In (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Shock Value (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Love A Warrior (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Saveurequity (20/1), 5 – Topmost (8/1), 6 – Shacklebolt (15/1), 7 – Moonfire (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Old Crow Court (10/1), 9 – Kalapaki Point (15/1), 10 – Gin On The Rocks (20/1), 11 – Intoloun (30/1), 12 – Endrush (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-8-9-4-11-10-12-2-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Bold Strength (7/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Systemic Change (12/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Special Session (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Gearing Up (10/1), 3 – Kalahari Dreams (12/1), 9 – First Resort (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Hypnus (9/2), 4 – Master Controller (6/1), 6 – Show Of Force (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-1-7-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-7-3-5-9-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – National Eclipse (3/1) |
| Place: | 10 – The Best Distance (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Raising Kane (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Right On Right On (10/1), 2 – Company You Keep (6/1), 9 – Midnight Channel (12/1), 1 – Contrary Chieftain (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11 – Fast Solution (8/1), 7 – Mowins (10/1), 8 – Up To No Good (20/1), 3 – Vino Couragio (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-11-10-4-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-11-1-9-4-5-10-7-2-3-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Maddy Mania (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Shinobu (9/2) |
| Show: | 12 – Peace Mission (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Validida (8/1), 9 – Stirrup (6/1), 6 – Racheli (6/1), 5 – Kabin Eight (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Alliemae (15/1), 4 – Aloha Kim (20/1), 7 – Newhope (15/1), 11 – Fan's Choice (30/1), 10 – Sharply (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-2-9-6-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-11-2-8-1-12-9-3-6-4-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #12, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Lockdownyourtown (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Heartbeat (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Hollybygolly (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Storm Cloud Rising (6/1), 5 – Belle Ofthe Dance (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Noroomformischief (10/1), 3 – Mom's Cheesecake (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-4-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Elewene (8/5) |
| Place: | 4 – Valkyrie (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Cruisin In Harmony (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Marblehead (9/2), 6 – Sharpie Girl (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Sweet Mary (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-3-6-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Flip Flop Freak (4/1) |
| Place: | 2 – T V Time Out (5/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Runnin Out Of Time (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Honest Truth (6/1), 7 – Taxi (6/1), 11 – Prestissimo (8/1), 4 – Chancery (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 – Kashville (12/1), 1 – Arcoven (10/1), 5 – Ebitda (15/1), 3 – Super Saiyajin (50/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-8-10-7-11 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-8-10-3-5-6-2-7-4-1-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #8, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Freaks Go (3/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Quick To Charm (9/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Ashes And Diamonds (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Brunia (9/2), 2 – Mcsniper (6/1), 8 – Tizianna (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Quinn's Promise (10/1), 5 – Rockin The Lane (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-7-6-4-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-5-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Fools Rush In (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Love A Warrior (8/1) |
| Show: | 12 – Endrush (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Topmost (8/1), 7 – Moonfire (6/1), 8 – Old Crow Court (10/1), 2 – Shock Value (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Shacklebolt (15/1), 9 – Kalapaki Point (15/1), 10 – Gin On The Rocks (20/1), 4 – Saveurequity (20/1), 11 – Intoloun (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-12-5-7-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-8-9-4-11-10-12-2-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #12, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Bold Strength (7/5) |
| Place: | 9 – First Resort (6/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Special Session (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Hypnus (9/2), 4 – Master Controller (6/1), 3 – Kalahari Dreams (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Gearing Up (10/1), 7 – Systemic Change (12/1), 6 – Show Of Force (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-1-6-2-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-7-3-5-9-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 10 – The Best Distance (7/2) |
| Place: | 6 – National Eclipse (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Company You Keep (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 11 – Fast Solution (8/1), 5 – Raising Kane (8/1), 4 – Right On Right On (10/1), 1 – Contrary Chieftain (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Mowins (10/1), 9 – Midnight Channel (12/1), 8 – Up To No Good (20/1), 3 – Vino Couragio (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11-5-3-1-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-11-1-9-4-5-10-7-2-3-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #2, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Maddy Mania (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 12 – Peace Mission (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +26% |
| Show: | 1 – Shinobu (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -39% |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Stirrup (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -38%, 2 – Validida (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 5 – Kabin Eight (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 6 – Racheli (6/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -65% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Alliemae (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -31%, 4 – Aloha Kim (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -36%, 11 – Fan's Choice (30/1) 3% · fair 75-2, 10 – Sharply (30/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -27%, 7 – Newhope (15/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -68% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-9-2-5-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-11-2-8-1-12-9-3-6-4-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #12, #1, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Lockdownyourtown (8/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -46% |
| Place: | 6 – Hollybygolly (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 1 – Heartbeat (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -36% |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Storm Cloud Rising (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5 – Belle Ofthe Dance (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Noroomformischief (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 3 – Mom's Cheesecake (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-4-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Valkyrie (7/2) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +48% |
| Place: | 3 – Marblehead (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 5 – Elewene (8/5) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -69% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Cruisin In Harmony (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%, 6 – Sharpie Girl (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Sweet Mary (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Flip Flop Freak (4/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +71% |
| Place: | 8 – Runnin Out Of Time (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Show: | 2 – T V Time Out (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Honest Truth (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 7 – Taxi (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 11 – Prestissimo (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -48%, 4 – Chancery (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -57% |
| Rest of field: | 9 – Kashville (12/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -56%, 5 – Ebitda (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -52%, 1 – Arcoven (10/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -71%, 3 – Super Saiyajin (50/1) 2% · fair 49-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-2-10-7-11 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-8-10-3-5-6-2-7-4-1-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #2, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Freaks Go (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 1 – Quick To Charm (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Show: | 3 – Ashes And Diamonds (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1 |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Tizianna (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%, 2 – Mcsniper (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6 – Brunia (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -53% |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Quinn's Promise (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 5 – Rockin The Lane (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-7-6-4-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-5-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Fools Rush In (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -30% |
| Place: | 12 – Endrush (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 3 – Love A Warrior (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +34% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Moonfire (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 5 – Topmost (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 8 – Old Crow Court (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -27%, 2 – Shock Value (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Shacklebolt (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 9 – Kalapaki Point (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%, 4 – Saveurequity (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 10 – Gin On The Rocks (20/1) 4% · fair 26-1, 11 – Intoloun (30/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -34% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-12-3-7-5-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-8-9-4-11-10-12-2-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #12, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Bold Strength (7/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -49% |
| Place: | 9 – First Resort (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Show: | 8 – Special Session (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Hypnus (9/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 4 – Master Controller (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 7 – Systemic Change (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Kalahari Dreams (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 1 – Gearing Up (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26%, 6 – Show Of Force (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-6-1-5-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-7-3-5-9-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 10 – The Best Distance (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Place: | 6 – National Eclipse (3/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -53% |
| Show: | 2 – Company You Keep (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Mowins (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 11 – Fast Solution (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%, 5 – Raising Kane (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36%, 4 – Right On Right On (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2 |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Contrary Chieftain (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 9 – Midnight Channel (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 8 – Up To No Good (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 3 – Vino Couragio (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11-3-5-1-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-11-1-9-4-5-10-7-2-3-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #8 over #12 ($1 straight; box #8-#12 for cover) Trifecta: #12 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #1, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #6, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #1 over #12 ($1 straight; box #1-#12 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #8, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #6 over #10 ($1 straight; box #6-#10 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #10, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 4 | 3 – Super Saiyajin | 50/1 | — | 3.2% | +61.1% | 0.31% | $0.31 |
| 1 | 11 – Fan'S Choice | 30/1 | — | 4.4% | +35.0% | 0.29% | $0.29 |
| 1 | 4 – Aloha Kim | 20/1 | — | 5.3% | +12.0% | 0.15% | $0.15 |
| 1 | 10 – Sharply | 30/1 | — | 3.6% | +10.8% | 0.09% | $0.09 |
| TOTAL across 4 plays: | 0.8% | $0.84 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000 | |
| Win: | 12 - Peace Mission (5/1) |
| Place: | 8 - Maddy Mania (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Shinobu (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - Stirrup (6/1), 2 - Validida (8/1), 6 - Racheli (6/1), 5 - Kabin Eight (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Alliemae (15/1), 7 - Newhope (15/1), 11 - Fan's Choice (30/1), 4 - Aloha Kim (20/1), 10 - Sharply (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-12-9-2-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-11-2-8-1-12-9-3-6-4-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #8, #1, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Lockdownyourtown (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Heartbeat (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Hollybygolly (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Belle Ofthe Dance (8/1), 2 - Storm Cloud Rising (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Noroomformischief (10/1), 3 - Mom's Cheesecake (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-7-5-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Elewene (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Cruisin In Harmony (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Marblehead (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Valkyrie (7/2), 6 - Sharpie Girl (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Sweet Mary (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-4-6-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Arcoven (10/1) |
| Place: | 2 - T V Time Out (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Super Saiyajin (50/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Chancery (10/1), 5 - Ebitda (15/1), 6 - Flip Flop Freak (4/1), 7 - Taxi (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Runnin Out Of Time (9/2), 9 - Kashville (12/1), 10 - Honest Truth (6/1), 11 - Prestissimo (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-8-10-3-5-6-2-7-4-1-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Brunia (9/2) |
| Place: | 7 - Freaks Go (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Ashes And Diamonds (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Tizianna (4/1), 4 - Quinn's Promise (10/1), 1 - Quick To Charm (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Mcsniper (6/1), 5 - Rockin The Lane (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-8-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-5-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Fools Rush In (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Shock Value (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Love A Warrior (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Saveurequity (20/1), 5 - Topmost (8/1), 6 - Shacklebolt (15/1), 7 - Moonfire (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Old Crow Court (10/1), 9 - Kalapaki Point (15/1), 10 - Gin On The Rocks (20/1), 11 - Intoloun (30/1), 12 - Endrush (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-8-9-4-11-10-12-2-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Bold Strength (7/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Hypnus (9/2) |
| Show: | 9 - First Resort (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Systemic Change (12/1), 1 - Gearing Up (10/1), 8 - Special Session (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Master Controller (6/1), 3 - Kalahari Dreams (12/1), 6 - Show Of Force (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-5-1-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-7-3-5-9-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 10 - The Best Distance (7/2) |
| Place: | 6 - National Eclipse (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Raising Kane (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Right On Right On (10/1), 2 - Company You Keep (6/1), 1 - Contrary Chieftain (12/1), 7 - Mowins (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Up To No Good (20/1), 11 - Fast Solution (8/1), 9 - Midnight Channel (12/1), 3 - Vino Couragio (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-5-1-6-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-11-1-9-4-5-10-7-2-3-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000 | |
| Win: | 12 - Peace Mission (5/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Shinobu (9/2) |
| Show: | 8 - Maddy Mania (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Validida (8/1), 6 - Racheli (6/1), 9 - Stirrup (6/1), 5 - Kabin Eight (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11 - Fan's Choice (30/1), 3 - Alliemae (15/1), 7 - Newhope (15/1), 10 - Sharply (30/1), 4 - Aloha Kim (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-2-6-9-12-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-11-2-8-1-12-9-3-6-4-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Lockdownyourtown (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Heartbeat (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Belle Ofthe Dance (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Storm Cloud Rising (6/1), 6 - Hollybygolly (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Noroomformischief (10/1), 3 - Mom's Cheesecake (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-5-7-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Elewene (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Cruisin In Harmony (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Marblehead (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Valkyrie (7/2), 6 - Sharpie Girl (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Sweet Mary (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-4-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Arcoven (10/1) |
| Place: | 2 - T V Time Out (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Super Saiyajin (50/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Chancery (10/1), 5 - Ebitda (15/1), 6 - Flip Flop Freak (4/1), 7 - Taxi (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Runnin Out Of Time (9/2), 9 - Kashville (12/1), 10 - Honest Truth (6/1), 11 - Prestissimo (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-8-10-3-5-6-2-7-4-1-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Freaks Go (3/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Brunia (9/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Ashes And Diamonds (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Quick To Charm (9/2), 2 - Mcsniper (6/1), 8 - Tizianna (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Quinn's Promise (10/1), 5 - Rockin The Lane (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-8-4-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-5-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Fools Rush In (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Shock Value (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Love A Warrior (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Saveurequity (20/1), 5 - Topmost (8/1), 6 - Shacklebolt (15/1), 7 - Moonfire (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Old Crow Court (10/1), 9 - Kalapaki Point (15/1), 10 - Gin On The Rocks (20/1), 11 - Intoloun (30/1), 12 - Endrush (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-8-9-4-11-10-12-2-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Bold Strength (7/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Gearing Up (10/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Special Session (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - First Resort (6/1), 7 - Systemic Change (12/1), 5 - Hypnus (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Kalahari Dreams (12/1), 4 - Master Controller (6/1), 6 - Show Of Force (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-9-5-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-7-3-5-9-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #8, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - National Eclipse (3/1) |
| Place: | 10 - The Best Distance (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Contrary Chieftain (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Company You Keep (6/1), 5 - Raising Kane (8/1), 4 - Right On Right On (10/1), 11 - Fast Solution (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Mowins (10/1), 9 - Midnight Channel (12/1), 8 - Up To No Good (20/1), 3 - Vino Couragio (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-10-11-5-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-11-1-9-4-5-10-7-2-3-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #8,#12,#1 (54%) / R2: #7,#6,#1 (64%) / R3: #4,#3,#5 (66%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #7,#6,#1 (64%) / R3: #4,#3,#5 (66%) / R4: #6,#8,#2 (60%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #4,#3,#5 (66%) / R4: #6,#8,#2 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#3 (51%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #6,#8,#2 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#3 (51%) / R6: #1,#12,#3 (52%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #8,#12,#1 (54%) / R2: #7,#6,#1 (64%) / R3: #4,#3,#5 (66%) / R4: #6,#8,#2 (60%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #7,#6,#1 (64%) / R3: #4,#3,#5 (66%) / R4: #6,#8,#2 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#3 (51%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ALLIEMAE | ALOHA KIM | ARCOVEN | ASHES AND DIAMONDS | BELLE OFTHE DANCE |
| BRUNIA | CHANCERY | COMPANY YOU KEEP | CONTRARY CHIEFTAIN | CRUISIN IN HARMONY |
| ELEWENE | ENDRUSH | FAN'S CHOICE | FAST SOLUTION | FIRST RESORT |
| FOOLS RUSH IN | FREAKS GO | GEARING UP | GIN ON THE ROCKS | HEARTBEAT |
| HONEST TRUTH | HYPNUS | INTOLOUN | KABIN EIGHT | KALAHARI DREAMS |
| KASHVILLE | LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN | LOVE A WARRIOR | MADDY MANIA | MARBLEHEAD |
| MCSNIPER | MIDNIGHT CHANNEL | MOM'S CHEESECAKE | MOONFIRE | MOWINS |
| NEWHOPE | NOROOMFORMISCHIEF | OLD CROW COURT | PEACE MISSION | PRESTISSIMO |
| QUINN'S PROMISE | RACHELI | RAISING KANE | RIGHT ON RIGHT ON | ROCKIN THE LANE |
| SAVEUREQUITY | SHACKLEBOLT | SHARPIE GIRL | SHARPLY | SHINOBU |
| SHOW OF FORCE | SPECIAL SESSION | STIRRUP | STORM CLOUD RISING | SUPER SAIYAJIN |
| SYSTEMIC CHANGE | T V TIME OUT | TAXI | THE BEST DISTANCE | TIZIANNA |
| UP TO NO GOOD | VALIDIDA | VALKYRIE | VINO COURAGIO |
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