Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.

Charles Town Races presents an 8-race card tonight with challenging weather conditions expected to impact the racing surface and horse performance.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Heavy rain is forecast for tonight at Charles Town with temperatures around 49-60°F and northeast winds at 12 mph. The track surface will likely be muddy or sloppy by post time, favoring horses with proven wet track ability and those drawn to the inside for the rail advantage. Current conditions show 93% humidity and poor air quality, which may affect both horse and jockey performance.​

Race 1 Analysis – 7:00 PM

CLAIMING – 6 1/2 Furlongs

Key Contenders: Miss Menetes brings solid credentials but has been scratched multiple times recently due to veterinarian issues. A Cozy Thing shows as a 3-1 morning line favorite but also carries scratch concerns from recent Parx appearances. Magic Token steps down in class and draws the rail advantage with Moises Santaella, who has shown consistent form at the meet.​

Secondary Choices: Fair Trade represents trainer Kevin Joy, who has been productive recently with multiple wins. Turbo Millie gets competent handling from Justin Lewis and could benefit from a pace setup.​

Pace Analysis: This appears to be a moderate pace scenario with several speed horses likely to press early. The wet track conditions will favor stalkers who can save ground and make late moves.

Race 2 Analysis – 7:30 PM

STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 7 Furlongs

Key Contenders: Seven Natty Patty gets the services of Moises Santaella, who has been among the leading riders at the meet. Slewing brings experience but has veterinarian scratch history. Mama Marge represents quality trainer Lewis Craig Jr. and gets Sunday Diaz Jr., who has been productive lately.​

Longshot Consideration: Aim’s Jubilee carries significant weight allowance with Juan Belisario and could offer value at longer odds.

Pace Analysis: The longer distance favors horses with proven stamina. The muddy conditions will make rail positioning crucial for the entire field.

Race 3 Analysis – 7:57 PM

CLAIMING – 4 1/2 Furlongs

Key Contenders: Butterfly Effect has had stewards’ issues but shows potential in the sprint distance. Odds On Mischief and Funny Road both represent trainer Michael Jones Jr., who has been among the leading conditioners. Flying to Neptune gets handling from J.D. Acosta, a consistent performer at the meet.​

Pace Analysis: The short distance creates a speed duel scenario where early position will be critical, especially with potential off-track conditions affecting closing kick ability.

Race 4 Analysis – 8:25 PM

STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 6 1/2 Furlongs

Key Contenders: Fainor’s Filets gets Jose Montano, who has shown excellent strike rate when given live mounts. Melancia represents trainer Jamie Collyer with Justin Lewis aboard. Charge Nurse brings seasoned form with Anthony Mawing.​

Value Play: Never So Lucky (IRE) carries significant weight concessions and could provide exotic value despite trainer changes.

Pace Analysis: Mid-distance sprint that should set up well for stalkers who can navigate the potentially sloppy surface.

Race 5 Analysis – 8:53 PM

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT – 4 1/2 Furlongs (2-Year-Olds)

This West Virginia-bred 2-year-old maiden special weight represents one of the evening’s most intriguing contests, featuring nine juveniles making their racing debuts or seeking their first career victory.​

Elite Contender

Coach Siggy (#6) emerges as the standout choice based on the dominant trainer-jockey combination of Anthony Farrior and J.D. Acosta. Farrior leads all Charles Town trainers with 109 wins and maintains an exceptional 20.91% purse earnings percentage, demonstrating consistent quality in his stock. Acosta brings 53 wins from 425 starts for a solid 12.47% win rate and ranks fourth among all jockeys in total victories at the meet. This partnership represents proven success at the Charles Town circuit, making Coach Siggy a formidable favorite despite his debut status.​

The Farrior barn has shown particular strength with 2-year-olds throughout the meet, and his ability to have juveniles ready for their first start is well-documented. Acosta’s tactical ability and strong finish to races makes him ideally suited for maidens who may need guidance through their initial racing experience.​

Key Contenders

Direct to Heaven (#1) represents trainer Cynthia McKee, who sends out Victory Song (#8) in the same race, suggesting confidence in her 2-year-old stable. Sunday Diaz Jr. takes the mount, bringing 37 wins from 354 starts and experience with first-time starters. While Diaz’s -3.69 added wins suggests he’s been overbet recently, his 10.45% win rate keeps him competitive, especially when aboard debut horses for established trainers.​

The breeding of Direct to Heaven shows Redirect as the sire from the Jenny Redi Made mare, providing solid mid-Atlantic pedigree that often translates well to Charles Town’s sprint distances.​

Nostrana (#9) carries significant appeal as the lone entry for trainer Michael E. Jones Jr., who has been productive recently with a 3-for-9 record last week. Jones ranks among Charles Town’s leading trainers and has established himself as a multiple stakes-winning conditioner with strong juvenile programs. The 10-pound weight allowance courtesy of apprentice Warren Ebow III provides substantial tactical advantage in this competitive field, reducing the colt’s impost to just 112 pounds.​

Secondary Choices

Yolo Manolo (#3) and Seatherny (#5) both represent trainer Javier Contreras with different jockeys, indicating the trainer has options in this spot. Juan Mauricio Nunez rides Yolo Manolo but carries concerning statistics with -14.44 added wins, the lowest among all regular Charles Town riders. Wesley Ho aboard Seatherny offers more reliable form with 15 wins from 116 starts and better value metrics.​

Fiber Rocks (#2) gets veteran rider Larry Reynolds for trainer Timothy Grams, representing experience that could prove valuable in a maiden field. However, the lack of recent workout information makes this colt difficult to assess.​

Longshot Considerations

Mark of Greatness (#4) brings regulatory concerns from his recent Laurel Park appearance but shows potential if cleared for action. Julio Jorge takes the mount for trainer Tonya O’Neill, whose 2.17% win rate ranks among the meet’s lowest. Foolish Rabbit (#7) gets Victor Rodriguez for the same O’Neill barn, creating a scenario where the trainer is searching for the right combination.​

Pace Analysis

The 4 1/2-furlong distance creates a speed-favoring scenario where gate breaks and early positioning become critical factors. With nine 2-year-olds likely showing varying degrees of experience and gate awareness, expect a potentially chaotic start that rewards horses with natural speed and tactical riders. The muddy track conditions will emphasize the importance of staying close to the pace early, as late-running moves become more difficult on off-going surfaces.

Coach Siggy’s connections suggest natural speed coupled with tactical ability, while Nostrana’s weight advantage could prove decisive if the race develops into a sustained drive. Direct to Heaven’s rail position provides saving of ground but requires a clean break to avoid traffic issues.

Breeding Considerations

West Virginia-bred 2-year-olds often show precocious speed that translates well to Charles Town’s configuration. The maiden special weight conditions attract horses with solid pedigrees who may develop into stakes contenders later in their careers. Coach Siggy’s breeding suggests sprint speed, while the Redirect breeding in Direct to Heaven typically produces hardy, versatile types suited to multiple surfaces.

Wagering Analysis

The morning line will likely favor Coach Siggy due to the Farrior-Acosta combination, but value may exist underneath with Nostrana’s weight advantage and Jones’s recent hot streak. Direct to Heaven offers pace-pressing potential from the rail, while the Contreras-trained duo provides depth for exotic wagers.

Consider Coach Siggy on top in exactas and trifectas, using Nostrana, Direct to Heaven, and the Contreras pair underneath. The Pick 3 beginning with this race offers opportunity to key the top choice while spreading in the following allowance and sprint contests.

Race 5 Selections:

• Win: Coach Siggy
• Place: Nostrana
• Show: Direct to Heaven
• Exacta: 6 with 1,3,5,9
• Trifecta: 6 with 1,3,5,9 with 1,2,3,5,8,9

The combination of Farrior’s training ability and Acosta’s tactical skills makes Coach Siggy the logical choice, while Nostrana’s weight allowance and connections provide the strongest alternative in this competitive juvenile maiden.​​

Race 6 Analysis – 9:21 PM

ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 1 1/16 Miles

Key Contenders: Game Keeper brings route experience with Sunday Diaz Jr. aboard for trainer Michael Jones Jr. Prince of Chill represents Miguel Ramos with Javier Rivera. Magic Mover steps up from starter company but has trainer concerns.

Distance Angle: The route distance will favor horses with proven stamina, particularly important given the challenging track conditions expected.

Race 7 Analysis – 9:49 PM

ALLOWANCE – 4 1/2 Furlongs

This allowance sprint features horses that have never won three races, creating a competitive field of lightly raced and improving types suited to Charles Town’s configuration.​

Elite Contender

Guardian Prince (#2) emerges as the standout choice based on multiple converging factors that create a compelling betting proposition. The 4-year-old gelding shows exceptional recent form with a victory at Penn National in his last start, demonstrating his ability to win at this class level. His statistical profile reveals a dominant 25% win percentage, 50% place percentage, and impressive 77% show percentage, indicating consistent competitive performance.​

The Anthony Farrior training adds significant value, as Farrior leads all Charles Town conditioners with 109 wins and maintains a stellar 20.91% purse earnings percentage. Farrior’s 26% win rate with 58% in-the-money percentage at Charles Town creates the meet’s most reliable training operation. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount, bringing 22% wins from 48% in-the-money efforts, perfectly complementing Farrior’s preparation.​

Guardian Prince’s breeding by The Factor suggests natural speed suited to Charles Town’s demanding sprint distances, while his recent Penn National victory demonstrates current competitive fitness. The morning line odds of 2-1 appear generous given the statistical dominance and proven trainer-jockey combination.​

Key Contender

Prospective Love (#1) represents quality opposition with solid credentials for trainer Timothy Grams and veteran jockey Larry Reynolds. The 5-year-old gelding by Great Notion shows consistent form with earnings of $127,902 from 15 career starts, including 2 wins and 7 additional placings. His recent Charles Town efforts show competitive speed figures, particularly his third-place finish in his penultimate start at this track and distance.​

Reynolds brings 65 starts with 26% wins and 46% in-the-money percentage, while Grams maintains 116 starts with 22% wins and 44% in-the-money statistics. This combination has proven effective at Charles Town, particularly in allowance company. The morning line favorite status at 5-2 reflects respect for the consistent performance pattern.​

The Maryland breeding typically translates well to Charles Town conditions, and Prospective Love’s stalking style should benefit from the expected pace setup in this sprint field.​

Secondary Choices

Correlation (#7) brings intriguing upside potential for trainer Manolo Mangual and Sunday Diaz Jr.. The 3-year-old gelding shows strong recent Charles Town form with a victory and multiple placings at this track, demonstrating comfort with the surface and configuration. His career statistics of 22% wins from 44% in-the-money efforts suggest developing ability that could peak in this spot.​

Diaz Jr. contributes 12% wins from 40% in-the-money percentage, while Mangual adds 13% wins from 48% placings, creating a competent partnership. The 2-pound weight allowance provides tactical advantage, reducing Correlation’s impost to 120 pounds compared to older competitors carrying 122-124 pounds.​

Alpha Blue (#8) represents Anthony Farrior’s secondary option with Abnel Bocachica aboard. The 6-year-old gelding brings experience with 20% career wins from 60% in-the-money efforts, indicating consistent competitive ability. His recent Gulfstream Park form shows quality, while the return to Charles Town’s shorter distances should favor his tactical speed.​

Live Longshots

Vehemently (#6) carries appeal as a developing 3-year-old for trainer Stacey Viands with J.D. Acosta aboard. Viands maintains moderate statistics with 148 starts producing 15 wins (10.14%) but shows negative value at -4.45 added wins. However, Acosta’s 12% win rate from 39% in-the-money efforts provides tactical strength, particularly important in sprint scenarios requiring quick decisions.​

The 3-year-old’s higher assigned weight of 122 pounds creates a disadvantage, but his developing ability could overcome the impost if fitness peaks properly.​

Priority Lane (#3) represents the resurgent Kevin Joy barn with Victor Rodriguez. Joy has shown recent improvement with multiple wins in his last week of racing, while Rodriguez brings consistency with solid value metrics. The combination gets respect based on recent positive trends, though Priority Lane’s distance preferences may not align perfectly with the 4 1/2-furlong sprint.​

Pace Analysis

The short distance creates speed-favoring conditions where early position becomes critical for success. Guardian Prince’s tactical speed suggests ability to secure ideal stalking position behind the pace, while Prospective Love’s style indicates similar tactical approach. Correlation’s mid-pack running style could prove effective if the pace collapses, while Alpha Blue’s experience suggests ability to adapt to varying pace scenarios.

The muddy track conditions will emphasize horses with proven wet-track ability and those who can maintain traction through the turns. Guardian Prince’s recent form and Farrior’s preparation suggest readiness for challenging conditions.

Breeding and Class Considerations

The allowance conditions attract horses moving up from claiming ranks alongside those stepping down from stakes competition. Guardian Prince’s The Factor breeding provides speed and class, while Prospective Love’s Great Notion lineage offers durability and tactical speed. The “never won three races” restriction creates opportunities for lightly raced horses with upside potential.

Wagering Strategy

Guardian Prince offers the strongest combination of current form, superior connections, and tactical advantages. The 2-1 morning line appears generous given statistical dominance and recent victory. Prospective Love provides the primary alternative with consistent Charles Town form and quality connections.

Consider Guardian Prince for win betting while using Prospective Love, Correlation, and Alpha Blue in exacta and trifecta combinations. The late Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences beginning with this race offer opportunities to key Guardian Prince while spreading underneath in the final race maiden claiming event.

Track Bias Considerations

Charles Town’s 4 1/2-furlong configuration typically favors horses with natural early speed who can maintain their position through the turn. The muddy conditions will make rail-skimming trips valuable, while horses forced wide may face significant disadvantages. Guardian Prince’s style and connections suggest ability to secure ideal ground-saving trips.

Race 7 Selections:

• Win: Guardian Prince
• Place: Prospective Love
• Show: Correlation
• Exacta: 2 with 1,7,8
• Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,7,8 with 1,3,4,6,7,8

The combination of Anthony Farrior’s training excellence and Guardian Prince’s proven recent form creates the evening’s strongest betting proposition in this competitive allowance sprint.

Race 8 Analysis – 10:17 PM

MAIDEN CLAIMING – 7 Furlongs

Key Contenders: Dancing Dakotah has stewards’ issues but shows potential with Moises Santaella. Impetus Echo (GB) brings European breeding but has illness concerns. Xochil represents Kelly Deiter with Justin Lewis.

Closing Race Considerations: Late race dynamics often favor horses with fresh energy, especially important given the long program and weather conditions.

Jockey Notes

Moises Santaella continues his strong meet with 17.54% win percentage and excellent value metrics. Sunday Diaz Jr. has been hot recently with multiple wins and gets live mounts tonight. Victor Rodriguez brings consistency with solid added wins metrics. J.D. Acosta remains reliable with 12.47% win rate and quality mounts.​

Trainer Insights

Anthony Farrior leads the trainer standings with 109 wins and strong purse percentage. Kevin Joy has been particularly productive recently, going 5-for-10 in his last week. Michael Jones Jr. maintains consistent quality with multiple horses entered tonight. Ronney Brown provides depth with 84 wins on the meet.​

Wagering Strategy

The wet track conditions create opportunities for value plays on horses with muddy track experience. Focus on exacta and trifecta combinations using stalking types who can benefit from pace collapses. The Pick 6 carryover of $61,573 beginning in Race 3 presents a substantial opportunity. Consider keying proven wet track performers in multi-race wagers while using longshots underneath for value.​

Best Bets: Magic Token (Race 1), Mama Marge (Race 2), Charge Nurse (Race 4), Game Keeper (Race 6).

Value Plays: Never So Lucky IRE (Race 4), Xochil (Race 8), and any horse getting Santaella or Diaz Jr. at odds.