How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:40 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 1 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700 | |
| Win: | 3 – Morning Cup (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Permafrost (5/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Club Mesquite (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Big Commerce (7/2), 2 – Rockin Boots (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Mr Negativity (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – My Maybelenne (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Brumbodoppelganger (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – She's Mad (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Lady Riley (5/1), 1 – Pops Reward (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Maritime Millie (10/1), 7 – Somavia (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-4-2-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-5-7-3-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Probably (8/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Secreto Uno (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Brasa (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Big Furn (3/1), 1 – D D's Legacy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Spicy Nice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-3-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-5-1-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,300 | |
| Win: | 8 – Hidden Vase (1/1) |
| Place: | 4 – K K's First Dance (20/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Summers With Sonya (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Dixie Surprise (9/2), 6 – Pickmeupatmidnight (20/1), 5 – Breathtaking Folly (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Onenite Ofmischief (10/1), 3 – Gun Ruler (15/1), 1 – Stroll With Class (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-6-8-7-5-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-2-9-7-3-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $40,855 | |
| Win: | 8 – Stone Man (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Macho Forty Five (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Cash's Pal (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Tough Tommy (8/1), 4 – Five Charlie (6/1), 7 – Steely Eye (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Sailorman (10/1), 5 – Uncle Singh (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-8-2-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-8-7-6-2-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Holiday House (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 – Here Comes Braylon (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Fifty Four Yarder (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Jester Sang (8/1), 1 – Run For Gold (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Romance (10/1), 4 – Brahms Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-6-5-7-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 10 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,030 | |
| Win: | 2 – Overqualified (5/2) |
| Place: | 8 – Bye Bye Time (3/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Crimson Tapestry (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Banished (8/1), 1 – Our Lockets Rocket (8/1), 5 – Dotsero (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Mizz Relevant (20/1), 4 – Sober Someday (12/1), 6 – Wicked Hot Foot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-8-9-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-8-9-1-4-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #9, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 11 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Miracle Ball (4/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Sipping Firewater (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Singing Emma (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Beautifly Troubl'd (10/1), 6 – Mischievous Bria (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – My Angel Marie (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-1-4-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 12 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Amorosa (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Glengarry (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Wearacap (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Wildatlanticstorm (9/2), 6 – Dawson's Storm (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Palace Guard (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-3-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 13 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Jack's Time (4/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Specialsortastorm (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Tee Off Time (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Iowa Club (6/1), 3 – Quietline (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Kind Soul (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700 | |
| Win: | 4 – Permafrost (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Morning Cup (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Club Mesquite (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Big Commerce (7/2), 1 – Mr Negativity (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Rockin Boots (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-1-2-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – My Maybelenne (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Lady Riley (5/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Brumbodoppelganger (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – She's Mad (9/2), 1 – Pops Reward (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Somavia (8/1), 3 – Maritime Millie (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-5-4-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-5-7-3-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Probably (8/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Secreto Uno (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Big Furn (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – D D's Legacy (6/1), 6 – Brasa (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Spicy Nice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-5-1-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,300 | |
| Win: | 8 – Hidden Vase (1/1) |
| Place: | 9 – Summers With Sonya (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Dixie Surprise (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Breathtaking Folly (8/1), 2 – Onenite Ofmischief (10/1), 4 – K K's First Dance (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Gun Ruler (15/1), 6 – Pickmeupatmidnight (20/1), 1 – Stroll With Class (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-6-7-5-3-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-2-9-7-3-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $40,855 | |
| Win: | 8 – Stone Man (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Cash's Pal (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Macho Forty Five (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Five Charlie (6/1), 3 – Tough Tommy (8/1), 6 – Sailorman (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Steely Eye (20/1), 5 – Uncle Singh (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-6-5-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-8-7-6-2-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Holiday House (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 – Here Comes Braylon (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Fifty Four Yarder (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Jester Sang (8/1), 1 – Run For Gold (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Romance (10/1), 4 – Brahms Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-6-7-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 10 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,030 | |
| Win: | 2 – Overqualified (5/2) |
| Place: | 9 – Crimson Tapestry (7/2) |
| Show: | 8 – Bye Bye Time (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Banished (8/1), 1 – Our Lockets Rocket (8/1), 5 – Dotsero (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Sober Someday (12/1), 7 – Mizz Relevant (20/1), 6 – Wicked Hot Foot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-8-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-8-9-1-4-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 11 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Miracle Ball (4/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Sipping Firewater (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Singing Emma (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Mischievous Bria (8/1), 4 – Beautifly Troubl'd (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – My Angel Marie (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-4-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 12 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Amorosa (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Glengarry (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Wearacap (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Wildatlanticstorm (9/2), 6 – Dawson's Storm (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Palace Guard (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-1-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 13 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Jack's Time (4/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Specialsortastorm (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Tee Off Time (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Iowa Club (6/1), 3 – Quietline (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Kind Soul (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700 | |
| Win: | 4 – Permafrost (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 5 – Club Mesquite (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2 |
| Show: | 6 – Big Commerce (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Morning Cup (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -60%, 1 – Mr Negativity (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Rockin Boots (10/1) 9% · fair 19-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-2-5-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – My Maybelenne (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33% |
| Place: | 2 – Lady Riley (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 4 – She's Mad (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Pops Reward (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 5 – Brumbodoppelganger (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -59% |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Somavia (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 3 – Maritime Millie (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-5-7-3-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Probably (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -43% |
| Place: | 5 – Big Furn (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 3 – Secreto Uno (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – D D's Legacy (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 6 – Brasa (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Spicy Nice (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-1-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-5-1-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,300 | |
| Win: | 8 – Hidden Vase (1/1) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -62% |
| Place: | 7 – Dixie Surprise (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 9 – Summers With Sonya (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Breathtaking Folly (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 2 – Onenite Ofmischief (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 3 – Gun Ruler (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40% |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Pickmeupatmidnight (20/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -27%, 4 – K K's First Dance (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -29%, 1 – Stroll With Class (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-6-7-5-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-2-9-7-3-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $40,855 | |
| Win: | 8 – Stone Man (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -44% |
| Place: | 1 – Cash's Pal (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -41% |
| Show: | 2 – Macho Forty Five (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Five Charlie (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 3 – Tough Tommy (8/1) 11% · fair 15-2, 6 – Sailorman (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Steely Eye (20/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 5 – Uncle Singh (20/1) 4% · fair 45-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-3-6-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-8-7-6-2-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Holiday House (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -39% |
| Place: | 3 – Fifty Four Yarder (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 6 – Here Comes Braylon (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -39% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Jester Sang (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +41%, 1 – Run For Gold (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32% |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Romance (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 4 – Brahms Image (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-7-6-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 10 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,030 | |
| Win: | 9 – Crimson Tapestry (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 2 – Overqualified (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -44% |
| Show: | 8 – Bye Bye Time (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Banished (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5 – Dotsero (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 1 – Our Lockets Rocket (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Sober Someday (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 7 – Mizz Relevant (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 6 – Wicked Hot Foot (20/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -28% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-2-8-3-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-8-9-1-4-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 11 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Miracle Ball (4/5) 33% · fair 2-1 underlay -61% |
| Place: | 5 – Sipping Firewater (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -26% |
| Show: | 1 – Singing Emma (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Mischievous Bria (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 4 – Beautifly Troubl'd (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – My Angel Marie (15/1) 8% · fair 11-1 overlay +38% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-1-4-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 12 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Amorosa (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 5 – Glengarry (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -45% |
| Show: | 1 – Wearacap (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Wildatlanticstorm (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1, 6 – Dawson's Storm (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Palace Guard (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-2-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 13 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 – Jack's Time (4/5) 36% · fair 2-1 underlay -56% |
| Place: | 6 – Specialsortastorm (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Show: | 3 – Quietline (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +42% |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Tee Off Time (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1, 1 – Iowa Club (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Kind Soul (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -33% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-2-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #8 over #9 ($1 straight; box #8-#9 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #9, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #8 over #1 ($1 straight; box #8-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 9 | AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 10 | AI Exacta: #2 over #8 ($1 straight; box #2-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #8, #9, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 11 | AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 12 | AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 13 | AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.34 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 7 | 4 – K K'S First Dance | 20/1 | — | 6.4% | +25.4% | 0.32% | $0.32 |
| TOTAL across 1 play: | 0.3% | $0.32 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700 | |
| Win: | 5 - Club Mesquite (4/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Permafrost (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Morning Cup (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Big Commerce (7/2), 1 - Mr Negativity (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Rockin Boots (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-4-6-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - My Maybelenne (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - She's Mad (9/2) |
| Show: | 5 - Brumbodoppelganger (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Lady Riley (5/1), 1 - Pops Reward (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Maritime Millie (10/1), 7 - Somavia (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-2-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-5-7-3-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Probably (8/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Secreto Uno (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Big Furn (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - D D's Legacy (6/1), 6 - Brasa (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Spicy Nice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-5-1-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,300 | |
| Win: | 9 - Summers With Sonya (4/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Pickmeupatmidnight (20/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Dixie Surprise (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Breathtaking Folly (8/1), 8 - Hidden Vase (1/1), 2 - Onenite Ofmischief (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - K K's First Dance (20/1), 3 - Gun Ruler (15/1), 1 - Stroll With Class (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-6-7-5-2-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-2-9-7-3-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $40,855 | |
| Win: | 1 - Cash's Pal (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Macho Forty Five (7/2) |
| Show: | 8 - Stone Man (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Sailorman (10/1), 3 - Tough Tommy (8/1), 4 - Five Charlie (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Uncle Singh (20/1), 7 - Steely Eye (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-8-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-8-7-6-2-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Holiday House (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Here Comes Braylon (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Fifty Four Yarder (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Jester Sang (8/1), 1 - Run For Gold (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Red Romance (10/1), 4 - Brahms Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-3-2-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 10 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,030 | |
| Win: | 9 - Crimson Tapestry (7/2) |
| Place: | 8 - Bye Bye Time (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Overqualified (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Banished (8/1), 1 - Our Lockets Rocket (8/1), 5 - Dotsero (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Sober Someday (12/1), 6 - Wicked Hot Foot (20/1), 7 - Mizz Relevant (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-8-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-8-9-1-4-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 11 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Miracle Ball (4/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Sipping Firewater (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Singing Emma (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Beautifly Troubl'd (10/1), 6 - Mischievous Bria (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - My Angel Marie (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-1-2-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 12 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 - Amorosa (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Glengarry (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Wearacap (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Dawson's Storm (6/1), 3 - Wildatlanticstorm (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Palace Guard (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 13 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 - Jack's Time (4/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Tee Off Time (5/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Specialsortastorm (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Iowa Club (6/1), 3 - Quietline (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Kind Soul (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700 | |
| Win: | 3 - Morning Cup (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Club Mesquite (4/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Permafrost (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Big Commerce (7/2), 2 - Rockin Boots (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Mr Negativity (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-4-6-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - My Maybelenne (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Brumbodoppelganger (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Pops Reward (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - She's Mad (9/2), 2 - Lady Riley (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Somavia (8/1), 3 - Maritime Millie (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-4-2-1-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-5-7-3-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Probably (8/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Secreto Uno (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Big Furn (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Brasa (8/1), 1 - D D's Legacy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Spicy Nice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-6-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-5-1-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,300 | |
| Win: | 8 - Hidden Vase (1/1) |
| Place: | 9 - Summers With Sonya (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Dixie Surprise (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Breathtaking Folly (8/1), 2 - Onenite Ofmischief (10/1), 6 - Pickmeupatmidnight (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Gun Ruler (15/1), 4 - K K's First Dance (20/1), 1 - Stroll With Class (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-8-7-5-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-2-9-7-3-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $40,855 | |
| Win: | 8 - Stone Man (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Cash's Pal (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Macho Forty Five (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Five Charlie (6/1), 3 - Tough Tommy (8/1), 6 - Sailorman (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Steely Eye (20/1), 5 - Uncle Singh (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-8-2-3-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-8-7-6-2-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Holiday House (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Here Comes Braylon (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Fifty Four Yarder (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Jester Sang (8/1), 1 - Run For Gold (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Brahms Image (12/1), 2 - Red Romance (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-6-5-7-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 10 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,030 | |
| Win: | 2 - Overqualified (5/2) |
| Place: | 8 - Bye Bye Time (3/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Crimson Tapestry (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Our Lockets Rocket (8/1), 3 - Banished (8/1), 5 - Dotsero (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Sober Someday (12/1), 7 - Mizz Relevant (20/1), 6 - Wicked Hot Foot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-8-9-1-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-8-9-1-4-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #9, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 11 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Miracle Ball (4/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Sipping Firewater (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Singing Emma (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Beautifly Troubl'd (10/1), 6 - Mischievous Bria (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - My Angel Marie (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-1-4-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-2-4-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 12 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 - Amorosa (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Glengarry (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Wearacap (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Wildatlanticstorm (9/2), 6 - Dawson's Storm (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Palace Guard (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-3-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 13 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,589 | |
| Win: | 4 - Jack's Time (4/5) |
| Place: | 6 - Specialsortastorm (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Tee Off Time (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Iowa Club (6/1), 3 - Quietline (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Kind Soul (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-1-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-5-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #6,#2,#4 (56%) / R6: #4,#5,#3 (66%) / R7: #8,#7,#9 (66%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #4,#5,#3 (66%) / R7: #8,#7,#9 (66%) / R8: #8,#1,#2 (58%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 3 R10-12 | R10: #9,#2,#8 (55%) / R11: #3,#5,#1 (69%) / R12: #4,#5,#1 (63%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24% |
| Pick 3 R11-13 | R11: #3,#5,#1 (69%) / R12: #4,#5,#1 (63%) / R13: #4,#6,#3 (66%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #4,#5,#6 (63%) / R5: #6,#2,#4 (56%) / R6: #4,#5,#3 (66%) / R7: #8,#7,#9 (66%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15% |
| Pick 4 R10-13 | R10: #9,#2,#8 (55%) / R11: #3,#5,#1 (69%) / R12: #4,#5,#1 (63%) / R13: #4,#6,#3 (66%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16% |
| AJS FAVORITE IA | AMOROSA | BANISHED | BEAUTIFLY TROUBL'D | BIG COMMERCE |
| BIG RED FRED | BRAHMS IMAGE | BRASA | BREATHTAKING FOLLY | BRUMBODOPPELGANGER |
| CALL A RUNAWAY | CASH'S PAL | CLUB MESQUITE | COWBOY 123 | CRIMSON TAPESTRY |
| DAWSON'S STORM | DIXIE SURPRISE | DOTSERO | ENCHANTEDMEDICINEMAN | FIFTY FOUR YARDER |
| FIVE CHARLIE | GLENGARRY | GUN RULER | HAYLEYS EAGLE | HERE COMES BRAYLON |
| HOLIDAY HOUSE | HOLLIEWOOD | IOWA CLUB | JACK'S TIME | JESTER SANG |
| KIND SOUL | KISS N IVORY | LADY RILEY | MACHO FORTY FIVE | MARITIME MILLIE |
| MIRACLE BALL | MISCHIEVOUS BRIA | MIZZ RELEVANT | MORNING CUP | MR CHAINBLULIGHTNING |
| MY ANGEL MARIE | MY MAYBELENNE | ONENITE OFMISCHIEF | OUR LOCKETS ROCKET | OVERQUALIFIED |
| PERMAFROST | PERSONALITI | PICKMEUPATMIDNIGHT | POPS REWARD | PRIMED AND READY |
| QUIETLINE | RC JULIET | REBELUTIONARY | RED ROMANCE | RELENTLESS EFFORT |
| ROYAL SPEED JESS | RUN FOR GOLD | SAILORMAN | SECRETO UNO | SHE'S MAD |
| SIPPING FIREWATER | SOBER SOMEDAY | SOMAVIA | SPECIALSORTASTORM | SPICY NICE |
| STONE MAN | STROLL WITH CLASS | SUMMERS WITH SONYA | TEE OFF TIME | TH GOLLY CHILI |
| TOUGH TOMMY | TRS SNOT NOSE KID | UNCLE SINGH | WEARACAP | WHOSE DA BOSS |
| WILDATLANTICSTORM | ZZ RELENTLESS |
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