Hawthorne – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for October 30, 2025

Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.

Hawthorne presents an 11-race thoroughbred card on Thursday, October 30, 2025, with first post at 1:43 PM CDT. This marks the final Thursday of the meet, featuring competitive fields across claiming, allowance, and maiden events. The card offers solid betting opportunities with field sizes ranging from 8 to 14 horses, providing excellent wagering value.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Weather conditions in the Chicago area show temperatures around 50-60°F for late October, with partly cloudy to overcast skies expected. Based on recent racing at Hawthorne, the dirt track is expected to be rated Fast, while the turf course should be Good, providing consistent racing surfaces. Wind conditions are typically moderate for this time of year in the Chicago area.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (6F Dirt, $9,750)

Key Contenders: D’Argonaut (#1) shows promise as a Rodriguez Eduardo trainee with Orlando Mojica aboard. The Eduardo Rodriguez barn has been competitive this meet. Tour De’Port (#2) brings experience as a 5-year-old mare but has been racing at lower levels.​

Secondary Choices: Wave of Memories (#4) with Emmanuel Giles provides value with recent form improvements. Enticing Option (#5) under Frank Reyes could factor at longer odds.

Pace Analysis: Expect moderate early pace with D’Argonaut and Atraxa (#8) providing tactical speed. The 6-furlong distance favors speed horses with some late kick.

Wagering Angles: D’Argonaut offers solid win value, while boxing the top 4 choices in exacta provides coverage.

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming 2YO Fillies (5.5F Dirt, $15,000)

Key Contenders: This competitive 12-horse field of juvenile fillies presents multiple angles. Allison Road (#1) with Israel Hernandez from the Hugh Robertson barn shows promise. Espada (#5) and Good Nellie (#6) provide additional value.

Longshots: Battle Wing (#11) at longer odds could provide surprise value in this wide-open maiden event.

Pace Analysis: Expect contested early pace with multiple speed types. The shorter distance favors early speed and tactical positioning.

Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming (5.5F Turf, $34,000)

This is a competitive allowance optional claiming event for 3-year-olds and up which have never won $15,000 twice other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred races, or which have never won four races, with a claiming option at $50,000. The 5½-furlong turf sprint distance favors horses with tactical speed and good turf form. With 11 runners, this provides excellent wagering opportunities across multiple pools.​

Top Contenders

Dark Vintage (IRE) (#9) – 4/1 Morning Line Favorite
This 4-year-old colt by Dark Angel brings European breeding and turf experience to Chris Block’s barn. The horse previously raced in England with decent form on turf courses, including a third-place finish in a Listed race at York. Luis Colon takes the mount, and the European breeding gives this runner a significant edge on the turf surface. The 4/1 morning line odds suggest the betting public recognizes his class advantage.​

One Timer (#11) – 7/2 Second Choice
This 6-year-old gelding represents excellent value as the second betting choice for Larry Rivelli’s barn. Rivelli has established himself as one of the premier trainers in the Midwest, with a 26% career win rate and 56% win-place-show percentage. The trainer’s philosophy of placing horses in spots where they “can’t lose” suggests confidence in this runner’s chances. Jareth Loveberry, currently second in the Hawthorne jockey standings, provides tactical riding.​

Sine Qua Non (#5) – 6/1
This 4-year-old gelding by Yoshida brings solid credentials for James DiVito with Orlando Mojica aboard. Mojica leads the current meet with 60 wins from 253 starts and a 24% win rate. The combination of the meet’s leading jockey on a horse bred for turf racing makes this a serious contender at attractive odds.​

Secondary Contenders

Big Vince (#4) – 6/1
This 3-year-old gelding has shown recent winning form for Larry Rivelli, capturing two victories at Turfway Park earlier this year. His breeding by Caravaggio suggests turf ability, and Walter Rodriguez provides competent handling. Rivelli’s success rate and the horse’s recent victories make this a solid play at 6/1 odds.​

Leading the Charge (#1) – 8/1
This 8-year-old gelding brings experience to Chris Block’s barn with Olaf Hernandez riding. While age may be a concern, his experience and proven turf form provide upset potential at attractive odds.​

Thealligatorhunter (#10) – 8/1
This 7-year-old gelding for Tim Padilla with Alonso Quinonez provides longshot value with tactical speed capabilities.​

Pace Analysis

The turf sprint distance typically develops with moderate early pace, favoring horses with tactical positioning. Dark Vintage (IRE) and Sine Qua Non appear most likely to press forward early, while One Timer and Big Vince can employ stalking tactics. The 5½-furlong distance leaves little room for extended rallies, making early positioning crucial.​

Key Angles

Trainer Angle: Larry Rivelli enters two horses (Big Vince #4 and One Timer #11), suggesting barn confidence. Rivelli’s 26% win rate and strategic placement philosophy make both runners dangerous.​

Jockey Angle: Orlando Mojica’s meet-leading statistics (24% win rate) on Sine Qua Non provide significant value.​

Class Angle: Dark Vintage (IRE)’s European racing experience and Listed race form give him a class edge over this field.​

Form Angle: Big Vince’s two recent wins at Turfway Park show current form and turf adaptability.​

Wagering Strategy

Win Bet: One Timer (#11) at 7/2 offers the best value combination of trainer, jockey, and recent barn success.​

Place/Show: Dark Vintage (IRE) (#9) provides safety in the place/show pools despite short odds.​

Exacta: Box One Timer (#11) with Dark Vintage (IRE) (#9) and Sine Qua Non (#5) for coverage of the most likely combinations.

Trifecta: Key One Timer (#11) and Dark Vintage (IRE) (#9) on top, with Big Vince (#4), Sine Qua Non (#5), and Leading the Charge (#1) filling out the bottom.

Final Selections

Win: One Timer (#11)
Place: Dark Vintage (IRE) (#9)
Show: Sine Qua Non (#5)

The combination of Larry Rivelli’s training expertise, Jareth Loveberry’s riding, and the horse’s proven ability at this level makes One Timer the value play in this competitive turf sprint.

Race 4 – Claiming (1M70Y Dirt, $12,250)

Key Contenders: Ricky Bobby (#1) brings consistency for Coty Rosin with Israel Hernandez aboard. Basscoat (#4) shows class advantage dropping in level. Euclid Avenue (#6) provides value with recent form improvements.

Route Analysis: The mile-plus distance requires stamina and tactical positioning. Expect moderate pace with strong late runs.

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming F&M (5.5F Turf, $34,000)

This allowance optional claiming event is restricted to fillies and mares 3-years-old and up which have never won $15,000 twice other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred races, or which have never won five races, with a claiming option at $50,000. The 5½-furlong turf sprint distance on Hawthorne’s inner turf course favors tactical speed and horses with proven turf form. With 10 fillies and mares entered, this presents excellent wagering opportunities across multiple pools.​

Top Contenders

Gray Lightning (#7) – 3/1 Morning Line Favorite
This 4-year-old filly by Social Inclusion represents the most formidable threat in this field for trainer Armando Hernandez with Orlando Mojica aboard. Gray Lightning captured a victory at Hawthorne on August 7th, defeating Mary’s Boon by a head in a stakes race. Her form shows consistent competitiveness at this level, with multiple wins in 2024 including victories at Philadelphia Park. The combination of the meet’s leading jockey (Mojica with 60 wins, 24% win rate) and her proven class at Hawthorne makes her the deserved favorite.​

Sweet Music (#6) – 4/1 Second Choice
This 3-year-old filly by Commissioner has been absolutely dominant in her recent starts, winning three consecutive races through September 2025. Her victories at Thistledown, Canterbury Park (twice), and a recent score show improving form and versatility across different surfaces. Trained by Joel Berndt with Israel Hernandez riding, this combination provides solid credentials. Hernandez maintains a 17% career win rate with over 3,200 starts. The hot form and class relief make this filly extremely dangerous.​

Grace Darling (IRE) (#9) – 5/1
This 5-year-old mare by Kingman brings European turf breeding to trainer Joel Berndt. Her pedigree suggests natural turf ability, being sired by Kingman out of a Dark Angel mare. Most significantly, Grace Darling captured a recent victory at Hawthorne on October 5th, showing she has adapted well to the local turf course. The European breeding combined with recent winning form at the track provides strong value at 5/1 odds.​

Secondary Contenders

Secret Operation (#4) – 6/1
This 5-year-old mare by Belomor showed her turf ability with a victory at Hawthorne on June 21st in a turf sprint. Trained by Michael Slager, who owns and trains the mare, she has shown consistent form at this level throughout 2025. Uriel Lopez takes the mount on a mare who clearly handles the Hawthorne turf course well.​

Mary’s Boon (#3) – 7/1
This 5-year-old mare by Central Banker has been competitive all year for Hugh Robertson, capturing two victories in 2025 including a win at Hawthorne in May and June. Her recent form shows consistency, finishing third behind Gray Lightning in their last meeting. Jareth Loveberry, currently second in the jockey standings, provides tactical riding.​

R Katiebug (#5) – 8/1
This 5-year-old mare represents Michele Boyce’s barn and has shown consistent form throughout 2025. While not a recent winner, her form shows she belongs at this level and could provide upset value at longer odds.​

Pace Analysis

The turf sprint distance typically develops with moderate early fractions, favoring horses with tactical positioning and a strong finishing kick. Gray Lightning and Sweet Music appear most likely to press the early pace, while Grace Darling and Secret Operation can employ stalking tactics. The 5½-furlong distance on turf leaves room for late rallies but requires good positioning entering the stretch.​

Key Angles

Hot Form Angle: Sweet Music’s three consecutive victories, including dominant performances at Canterbury Park, represent the strongest recent form in the field.​

Track Familiarity: Both Gray Lightning and Grace Darling have proven they can handle Hawthorne’s turf course with recent victories.​

Trainer Angle: Joel Berndt saddles two contenders (Sweet Music #6 and Grace Darling #9), suggesting confidence in his string’s current form.​

Jockey Angle: Orlando Mojica’s meet-leading statistics provide significant confidence on Gray Lightning.​

Breeding Angle: Grace Darling’s European turf breeding by Kingman provides natural grass credentials.​

Wagering Strategy

Win Bet: Sweet Music (#6) at 4/1 offers the best value combination of hot form and class relief.​

Place/Show: Gray Lightning (#7) provides safety in the place/show pools despite being the favorite.​

Exacta: Box Sweet Music (#6) with Gray Lightning (#7) and Grace Darling (IRE) (#9) for coverage of the most likely finishing combinations.

Trifecta: Key Sweet Music (#6) and Gray Lightning (#7) on top, with Grace Darling (IRE) (#9), Secret Operation (#4), and Mary’s Boon (#3) filling out the bottom positions.

Daily Double: Use Sweet Music and Gray Lightning in Race 5 with multiple horses in Race 6 for value coverage.

Final Selections

Win: Sweet Music (#6)
Place: Gray Lightning (#7)
Show: Grace Darling (IRE) (#9)

Sweet Music’s three-race winning streak, including impressive margin victories, combined with her versatility across different surfaces makes her the value play against the favorite. Her recent form suggests she’s peaking at the right time for this allowance level competition. The European breeding of Grace Darling provides excellent show value for those seeking coverage in the lower pools.

​Race 6 Analysis – Claiming (1 Mile Turf, $13,500)

Post Time: 4:05 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This claiming race for 3-year-olds and 4-year-olds and upward which have never won three races features a $12,500 claiming price. The one-mile turf distance requires stamina and tactical positioning, with the race contested over Hawthorne’s outer turf course. With 11 runners entered, this presents multiple wagering opportunities.​

Top Contenders

Slava Ukraini (#7) – 3/1
This 5-year-old gelding by Cross Traffic has shown competitive form recently for Rigo Rosas with Israel Hernandez riding. Most notably, Slava Ukraini finished second at Hawthorne on October 12th, paying $18.60 to place behind Wicked Suprise. His recent form shows consistency at this level, and the combination with Hernandez provides tactical riding.​

New Year Surprise (#6) – 4/1
This 7-year-old horse brings experience and should handle the mile distance well for trainer Dino DiZeo with Javier Tavares aboard. The age and experience factor could prove decisive in this competitive field.​

Man On Attack (#8) – 5/1
This 5-year-old gelding showed good form in his recent Hawthorne appearance, finishing third behind Slava Ukraini on October 12th and paying $3.00 to show. Trained by Shane Childers with Santiago Gonzalez riding, he represents solid value at longer odds.​

Race 7 Analysis – Claiming (6½F Dirt, $11,250)

Post Time: 4:38 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This claiming race for 3-year-olds and upward which have never won three races or which have not won since June 30, 2025, features a $5,000 claiming price. The 6½-furlong dirt sprint distance favors horses with tactical speed. With 14 runners, this is the largest field of the day.​

Top Contenders

Shaman Sez (#8) – 5/2
This 4-year-old gelding represents Hugh Robertson’s barn with Orlando Mojica aboard. The combination of the meet’s leading jockey (24% win rate) with Robertson’s consistent training makes this the deserved favorite.​

Red Moscato (#7) – 4/1
This 4-year-old gelding for Elias Lopez with Frank Reyes provides solid value in this competitive claiming sprint.​

Hawaiian Hide Away (#2) – 6/1
This 5-year-old gelding brings experience for R. Terry Young with Luis Colon aboard. The experience factor in a claiming race with younger horses could prove advantageous.​

Race 8 Analysis – Claiming (5½F Turf, $12,250)

Post Time: 5:08 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This claiming race for 3-year-olds and upward features a $5,000 claiming price on the turf course. The 5½-furlong turf sprint requires tactical speed and proven grass form. With 12 runners, this provides excellent wagering opportunities.​

Top Contenders

Joe the Tailor (#11) – 3/1
This 4-year-old gelding represents value for Armando Hernandez with Orlando Mojica riding. Mojica’s meet-leading statistics combined with the trainer’s turf expertise makes this a strong play.​

Devils Red (#9) – 4/1
This 5-year-old gelding for David Reid with Israel Hernandez aboard brings proven turf form to this sprint. Hernandez’s tactical riding style suits turf racing well.​

Vitale (#7) – 5/1
This 6-year-old gelding for Pat Clay with Olaf Hernandez provides experience and value at longer odds.

​Race 9 Analysis – Allowance F&M (6F Dirt, $33,000)

Post Time: 5:38 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This allowance race is restricted to fillies and mares 3-years-old and up which have never won $12,000 once other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred allowance races, or which have never won two races. The 6-furlong dirt sprint distance at Hawthorne favors horses with tactical speed and strong finishing kicks. With 10 fillies entered, this presents a competitive field with multiple legitimate contenders and solid wagering opportunities.​

Top Contenders

Smoked (#1) – 5/2 Morning Line Favorite
This 3-year-old filly by Adios Charlie represents the strongest credentials in this field for Larry Rivelli with Julio Felix aboard. Smoked has proven she can win at this level with victories at Fairmount Park (April 29th and April 3rd) and a score at Hawthorne on July 15th. Her most recent outing on September 22nd at Presque Isle Downs resulted in a solid second-place finish, showing she maintains her competitive form. Rivelli’s 26% career win rate and strategic placement philosophy suggest confidence in this filly’s chances. The combination of proven class and recent form makes her the deserved favorite.​

Kelly’s Girl (#9) – 7/2 Second Choice
This 3-year-old filly by Three Hour Nap has been competitive throughout 2025 for Hugh Robertson’s barn. Most significantly, Kelly’s Girl captured a victory at Hawthorne on August 7th, paying $5.00 for the win in allowance company. Her recent form shows consistent efforts in allowance races, including competitive finishes in September and October. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount on a filly who has proven she can handle Hawthorne’s main track.​

Mama’s Memories (#6) – 4/1
This 3-year-old filly by Ghaaleb brings significant value with Orlando Mojica aboard. Mojica leads the current Hawthorne meet with 60 wins from 253 starts (24% win rate). Trained by Steve Manley, this filly represents the combination of the meet’s hottest jockey with a barn that clearly believes in her chances at this level.​

Secondary Contenders

Tre Dita (#3) – 6/1
This 3-year-old filly by Adios Charlie provides Larry Rivelli with a second strong entry. Jareth Loveberry, currently second in the jockey standings with 42 wins, provides tactical riding. Her recent third-place finish at Hawthorne on October 16th shows she belongs in this company. The combination of proven trainer, quality jockey, and recent competitive form makes her a serious threat.​

Dream Nap (#2) – 8/1
This 4-year-old filly represents Hugh Robertson’s barn with Israel Hernandez riding. Robertson’s consistent success at placing horses in competitive spots, combined with Hernandez’s tactical riding ability, makes this a solid value play.​

Spicy Delight (#5) – 10/1
This 4-year-old filly with Eduardo Gallardo provides longshot value for Steve Fridley’s barn. At longer odds, she could provide upset potential in a competitive field.​

Pace Analysis

The 6-furlong distance typically develops with moderate early fractions, favoring horses with tactical positioning and strong closing kicks. Smoked and Mama’s Memories appear most likely to press forward early, while Kelly’s Girl and Tre Dita can employ stalking tactics. The distance allows for legitimate late rallies but requires good positioning entering the stretch drive.​

Key Angles

Trainer Dominance: Larry Rivelli enters two quality fillies (Smoked #1 and Tre Dita #3), suggesting exceptional confidence in his string’s current form. His 26% career win rate makes both dangerous.​

Track Familiarity: Both Smoked and Kelly’s Girl have proven they can win at Hawthorne, providing significant advantages over horses making their local debuts.​

Jockey Excellence: Orlando Mojica’s meet-leading statistics on Mama’s Memories provide compelling value at 4/1 odds.​

Recent Form: Kelly’s Girl’s August victory at Hawthorne demonstrates her ability to handle this exact track and distance combination.​

Barn Confidence: Hugh Robertson enters two fillies (Dream Nap #2 and Kelly’s Girl #9), indicating belief in his current stable strength.​

Wagering Strategy

Win Bet: Kelly’s Girl (#9) at 7/2 offers excellent value combining proven Hawthorne success with solid recent form.​

Place/Show: Smoked (#1) provides safety in the place/show pools despite being the favorite.​

Exacta: Box Kelly’s Girl (#9) with Smoked (#1) and Mama’s Memories (#6) for coverage of the most likely combinations.

Trifecta: Key Kelly’s Girl (#9) and Smoked (#1) on top, with Mama’s Memories (#6), Tre Dita (#3), and Dream Nap (#2) filling out the bottom positions.

Pick 3/4: Use Kelly’s Girl and Smoked in the late Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequences for value coverage.

Final Selections

Win: Kelly’s Girl (#9)
Place: Smoked (#1)
Show: Mama’s Memories (#6)

Kelly’s Girl’s proven ability at Hawthorne, combined with her recent competitive form in allowance company, makes her the value selection against a favorite who, while talented, has not raced since September. The local track advantage and Hugh Robertson’s consistent barn management provide the edge needed to capture this competitive fillies and mares allowance race.

Race 10 Analysis – Claiming (6F Dirt, $9,750)

Post Time: 6:08 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This claiming race for 3-year-olds and upward which have not won two races since July 30, 2025, features a $4,000 claiming price. The 6-furlong dirt sprint distance favors horses with tactical speed. With 10 runners, this provides solid wagering value.​

Top Contenders

Charlie Lightning (#6) – 5/2
This 5-year-old gelding brings proven form for Rhonda Thurman with Victor Santiago aboard. The combination suggests confidence at this claiming level.​

Racarino (#4) – 4/1
This 7-year-old gelding for Armando Hernandez with Luis Colon riding represents solid value with experience.​

Idea Man (#7) – 6/1
This 8-year-old gelding brings extensive experience for Ralph Martinez with Orlando Mojica aboard. Mojica’s meet-leading statistics provide significant confidence.​

Race 11 Analysis – Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 Miles Dirt, $15,000)

Post Time: 6:38 PM CDT

Race Conditions and Overview

This starter optional claiming event for 3-year-olds and upward which have started for $5,000 or less in 2023-2025, or claiming price $10,000. The 1 1/16-mile distance requires stamina and tactical positioning. With 10 runners, this concludes the evening’s card.​

Top Contenders

Words of Wisdom (#2) – 2/1 Favorite
This 6-year-old gelding by Tapit brings exceptional credentials to Tony Rengstorf’s barn with Israel Hernandez riding. Words of Wisdom captured victories at Canterbury Park on July 4th and August 14th, showing excellent recent form. The horse finished second in his most recent start on September 11th, maintaining competitive form. His breeding by Tapit out of Wedding Toast provides stamina for the longer distance.​

Prince Rama (#1) – 3/1
This 7-year-old gelding also represents Tony Rengstorf’s barn with Alexis Centeno aboard. Having both the favorite and second choice from the same barn suggests exceptional confidence in the stable’s current form.​

Double Thunder (#4) – 5/1
This 6-year-old gelding for R. Terry Young with Frank Reyes provides value in this competitive route race.​

Final Race 11 Selection

Win: Words of Wisdom (#2) – The combination of proven recent form, excellent breeding for the distance, and Tony Rengstorf’s successful barn management makes this gelding the clear choice to close out the evening’s card.​

These remaining five races offer excellent wagering opportunities, particularly with the meet’s leading jockeys Orlando Mojica and Israel Hernandez having multiple quality mounts throughout these events.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Orlando Mojica leads the current meet standings with 60 wins from 253 starts (24% win rate) and over $1.2 million in earnings. Mojica rides in multiple races today and represents excellent value on competitive mounts.​

Jareth Loveberry sits second with 42 wins from 212 starts (20% win rate). His tactical riding style suits Hawthorne’s configuration well.​

Santiago Gonzalez brings consistency with 51 wins from 295 starts (17% win rate). His aggressive early positioning often pays dividends in claiming races.​

Israel Hernandez shows solid form with 32 wins from 210 starts (15% win rate). His patient riding style works well in route races.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Eduardo Rodriguez operates a stable barn with multiple entries today, indicating confidence in his string. His tactical approach with different horse types shows versatility.

Hugh Robertson consistently places horses in competitive spots and shows strong form management throughout the meet.

Larry Rivelli demonstrates solid barn management with horses showing improvement patterns when dropped in class or distance.

Michele Boyce shows particular strength with female horses and turf runners.

Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Pick 4 Strategy: Focus on races 8-11 for the late Pick 4, targeting value horses with solid recent form.

Daily Double Opportunities: Race 1-2 provides early double value, while Race 10-11 offers late double potential.

Exacta Value: In larger fields (Races 2, 7, 8), boxing 4-5 horses provides solid coverage at reasonable cost.

Trifecta Plays: Focus on races with 10+ horses where longshots can fill out the bottom of trifectas.

Best Single: Orlando Mojica rides offer the strongest single-race value given his current form and quality mounts.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback