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Mahoning Valley presents an eight-race card today with claiming races, maiden claiming, allowance optional claiming, and starter allowance events. The track surface is listed as Fast despite the inclement weather, though conditions could deteriorate as rain continues throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions show overcast skies with intermittent rain and temperatures hovering around 50°F. Winds from the northeast at 10-15 mph are contributing to challenging racing conditions. The track’s sand-based surface historically drains well during winter racing, which may help maintain racing despite the precipitation.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $17,500 Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post time: 12:15 PM
Matthew’s Patriot (6G) emerges as the morning line favorite stepping down in class with jockey Jose Bracho aboard. The gelding has shown competitive form at this claiming level and benefits from the class relief. Gottomakeithappen (4G) represents trainer Gary Johnson and jockey Mauro Cedillo, offering tactical speed from the inside post. Overload (5G) adds depth to this competitive field.
Pace analysis suggests early pressure between Matthew’s Patriot and Gottomakeithappen, potentially setting up a late rally scenario. The wet conditions favor horses with proven ability on off tracks.
Race 2 – $17,400 Fillies and Mares Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post time: 12:43 PM
She’s So Sexy (4F) draws attention as the probable favorite with regular rider Jose Bracho continuing their partnership. The filly steps up from recent efforts but has shown ability at this claiming level. Lil Breezzy (3F) represents the Eddie Clouston barn and could benefit from the weight allowance for three-year-olds.
The compact field of six creates opportunities for pace positioning. Early speed figures to be contested among the top three qualifiers.
Race 3 – $10,500 Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post time: 1:11 PM
First Act (3G) appears prominently positioned for trainer Timothy Hamm with jockey Rocco Bowen. The three-year-old gelding has shown promise in recent efforts and benefits from the maiden claiming conditions. Game Maker (IRE) brings international breeding to this competitive maiden field.
Pace dynamics suggest a moderately contested early pace with opportunities for closers in the stretch run.
Race 4 – $27,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (5½ Furlongs)
The fourth race presents the most competitive allowance event of the afternoon, featuring six horses in an allowance optional claiming format with a $25,000 claiming tag. The 5½-furlong sprint distance on a potentially deteriorating track surface creates tactical challenges for connections navigating the wet conditions.
Race Conditions and Class Analysis
This allowance optional claiming event targets horses that have never won three races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio-bred events, or have never won four races. The $25,000 claiming option provides trainers flexibility while competing for the substantial $27,500 purse, with the winner earning approximately $17,325.
Probable Betting Lines and Market Analysis
Early betting markets establish You Bet A Fortune as the 2/1 morning line favorite, followed by Saint Goar at 3/1, Pay Zone at 7/2, Shadowy at 4/1, Mighty Les at 6/1, and Sergeant Gump as the 10/1 longshot. These odds reflect recent form patterns and class evaluations by track handicappers.
Detailed Contender Analysis
You Bet A Fortune (PP 2) – The morning line favorite represents trainer Jay Bernardini and jockey Erik Barbaran in this competitive field. The four-year-old son of Unbridled Energy steps down in class from recent efforts and could benefit from the tactical relief. His recent form shows some inconsistency, but the class drop and proven connections suggest bounce-back potential. The inside draw provides tactical options in the sprint format.
Saint Goar (PP 3) – This seven-year-old veteran brings extensive experience with 43 career starts, more than any other horse in this field. Trainer Julie Pappada teams with jockey Victor Severino for this allowance optional claiming assignment. The gelding won over course and distance in his last start, demonstrating current form and track familiarity. His seasoned racing style and proven ability at this level make him a legitimate threat despite carrying full weight at 126 pounds.
Shadowy (PP 6) – The Timothy Hamm-trained gelding represents one of the most successful trainer-jockey combinations at the current meet. Jockey Rocco Bowen recently captured his sixth stakes victory of 2025, including the $75,000 Catlaunch Stakes aboard Villian for trainer Hamm. This partnership’s recent success creates confidence for Shadowy’s chances in this allowance field. The four-year-old carries 126 pounds but benefits from proven tactical speed suitable for the sprint distance.
Pay Zone (PP 5) – Trainer Anthony Farrior sends out this five-year-old gelding with jockey Luis Raul Rivera providing the tactical guidance. The horse drops in grade from recent efforts and may show improvement in this class relief situation. His form cycle suggests potential for a forward move, particularly if the pace develops favorably for his running style.
Mighty Les (PP 4) – This four-year-old represents trainer Raquel Castro with Fernando Salazar Becerra handling the riding assignment. Recent form shows competitive efforts in similar company, and the gelding benefits from the 2-pound weight allowance for non-winners since September 30. His tactical speed could prove valuable in the short sprint format.
Sergeant Gump (PP 1) – The longest shot on the morning line at 10/1 odds represents trainer Anna Decker with David Haldar riding. The four-year-old son of Texas Red faces a challenging assignment from the rail but could provide upset value if the pace collapses. Recent scratches due to gate issues suggest some behavioral concerns that could affect performance.
Pace Analysis and Tactical Considerations
The 5½-furlong distance typically produces contested early fractions, particularly with multiple horses possessing tactical speed capabilities. You Bet A Fortune and Shadowy figure to press the early pace from their favorable post positions. Saint Goar’s veteran experience allows for tactical positioning throughout the race, while Pay Zone and Mighty Les could benefit from a contested early pace scenario.
The wet track conditions favor horses with proven ability on off surfaces and those with early tactical speed to avoid traffic complications. The short sprint distance minimizes the impact of track bias but emphasizes the importance of clean trips and tactical positioning.
Key Wagering Angles
The Hamm-Bowen combination with Shadowy presents the most compelling angle given their recent success rate and proven chemistry. Saint Goar’s course-and-distance victory in his last start provides concrete evidence of current form and track suitability. You Bet A Fortune’s class drop offers potential value despite his favoritism in the early betting markets.
Exacta combinations featuring Shadowy over Saint Goar and Pay Zone provide solid value opportunities. The trifecta wheel using Shadowy on top with Saint Goar, You Bet A Fortune, and Pay Zone underneath creates multiple winning combinations at attractive odds.
Final Assessment and Selections
Win Selection: Shadowy – The Hamm-Bowen partnership’s recent success, combined with tactical speed suitable for the sprint distance and wet conditions, makes this four-year-old the top selection.
Place/Show Protection: Saint Goar – Veteran experience, course-and-distance form, and proven ability at this class level provide strong place potential.
Value Overlay: Pay Zone – The class drop and tactical style could produce a forward move at attractive odds for exotic wagering sequences.
The competitive nature of this allowance field creates opportunities for enhanced payoffs in multiple exotic wagering formats, particularly given the challenging weather conditions that could produce unexpected results.
Race 5 – $17,500 Ohio-Bred Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post time: 2:07 PM
This competitive field of eleven Ohio-bred horses presents multiple contending options. Serendipitous (6G) brings proven claiming form with trainer Jeffrey Radosevich. Crafted (4C) represents an interesting colt stepping up in competition.
The large field creates pace complications and betting opportunities across multiple horses with similar ability levels.
Race 6 – $13,000 Claiming Route (1 Mile)
Post time: 2:35 PM
The route distance changes the dynamics significantly. Fun Lovin Criminal (5G) has shown route competency and represents trainer Anthony Farrior. Harvard (7G) brings veteran experience to the distance.
Route races often develop different pace scenarios, with positioning becoming crucial in the final quarter-mile.
Race 7 – $23,700 Ohio-Bred Fillies and Mares Starter Allowance (5½ Furlongs)
This seventh race represents one of the most competitive events on the card, featuring a high-quality field of seven registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares competing in a starter allowance format. The race targets horses that have started for claiming prices of $8,000 or less in 2024-2025, creating an excellent betting race with substantial purse distribution favoring the connections.
Race Conditions and Purse Structure
The starter allowance conditions provide an attractive competitive framework with the winner earning $14,931, second place $4,740, third $2,370, and fourth $1,659. The race restricts entries to registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares, with three-year-olds carrying 123 pounds and older horses at 126 pounds, though non-winners since September 30 receive a valuable 2-pound allowance.
Professional Handicapping Assessment
Leading handicapping services identify The Devil’s Dream as the standout selection with the highest rating of 74, noting she “has strong form and looks well-placed to succeed”. Shez Shacked Up emerges as the primary challenger, described as coming “off a good run and could challenge,” while Saltmakeshersweet provides additional depth as a horse that “drops in class and may improve”.
Detailed Contender Analysis
The Devil’s Dream (PP 4) – This six-year-old mare represents the powerful Gary Johnson stable with jockey Mauro Cedillo providing tactical guidance. Rated 74, she brings the highest speed figures to this field and demonstrates consistent performance at this class level. Her recent form shows victories on March 18 and December 3, 2024, including a impressive win over today’s rival Shez Shacked Up. Johnson’s exceptional current form at Mahoning Valley, including recent victories and high-percentage success rate, enhances her winning probability significantly.
Shez Shacked Up (PP 7) – The seven-year-old mare represents trainer Jeffrey Skerrett with jockey Luis Alberto Batista handling the riding assignment. Rated 70, she brings proven class and demonstrates consistent competitive ability in this starter allowance company. Her recent form includes a victory on March 18, 2025, and multiple competitive efforts against similar competition. The Skerrett barn brings proven success with starter allowance horses, and Batista’s tactical awareness provides additional advantages.
Saltmakeshersweet (PP 2) – This four-year-old filly represents trainer Gary Johnson with jockey Yan Aviles providing the tactical guidance. Rated 63, she drops in class from recent efforts and shows potential for improvement in this starter allowance framework. Johnson’s current hot streak at the meet creates additional confidence for his second entry in this competitive field. The class drop combined with proven connections makes her a legitimate threat despite the lower rating.
Whiskey Diamond (PP 6) – Rated 72, this five-year-old mare brings solid credentials to trainer George Bush with jockey David Haldar riding. Her form cycle shows competitive efforts in similar company, and the combination has shown ability to compete effectively at this class level. Morning line odds of 4/1 suggest betting value if the form holds up.
Boogie Boogee (PP 5) – The seven-year-old mare represents trainer Emily Szczepanski with jockey Joam Toledo providing riding services. Rated 70, she “placed last start at Thistledown and should run fitter for past attempts” according to recent handicapping analysis. Her experience and proven ability create exotic wagering potential at attractive odds.
Fanciful (PP 3) – This four-year-old filly rated 67 represents trainer Kathy Jarvis with jockey Jann Hernandez riding. Her form shows competitive efforts in similar company, though she faces a challenging assignment against this quality field.
Shakeurskinnylegs (PP 1) – The five-year-old mare represents trainer Jeffrey Skerrett with jockey German Terraza riding. Rated 53, she provides the longest odds in the field but brings course experience and Skerrett’s proven ability with starter allowance horses.
Pace Analysis and Tactical Considerations
The 5½-furlong distance typically produces contested early fractions, particularly with multiple horses possessing tactical speed capabilities. The Devil’s Dream and Saltmakeshersweet figure to press the early pace from their mid-pack post positions, while Shez Shacked Up demonstrates tactical versatility from the outside post. The wet track conditions favor horses with early tactical speed and proven off-track ability.
Key Trainer and Jockey Angles
Gary Johnson’s dominance at the current Mahoning Valley meet creates the strongest angle in this race, with the trainer recording multiple recent victories and demonstrating exceptional form with fillies and mares. His dual entry strategy with The Devil’s Dream and Saltmakeshersweet provides tactical flexibility and betting opportunities.
Jeffrey Skerrett brings proven success with starter allowance horses and fields two legitimate contenders in Shez Shacked Up and Shakeurskinnylegs. His recent success rate creates confidence for both entries despite different class levels.
Mauro Cedillo provides proven tactical riding and demonstrates strong chemistry with Johnson-trained horses, enhancing The Devil’s Dream’s winning chances significantly.
Wagering Strategy and Value Assessment
Win Selection: The Devil’s Dream – Superior rating, proven trainer form, and favorable class positioning make her the standout choice despite probable favoritism.
Value Overlay: Saltmakeshersweet – Johnson’s second entry offers potential value with the class drop and proven connections at attractive odds.
Exotic Play: Shez Shacked Up – Proven class and Skerrett’s success create strong place potential for exacta and trifecta combinations.
Exacta Strategy: Key The Devil’s Dream on top with Saltmakeshersweet, Shez Shacked Up, and Whiskey Diamond underneath for comprehensive coverage.
Trifecta Approach: Use The Devil’s Dream and Saltmakeshersweet as primary keys with Shez Shacked Up, Whiskey Diamond, and Boogie Boogee filling out the bottom positions.
The combination of superior ratings, proven trainer form, and favorable class relief makes this race an excellent betting opportunity with Johnson’s dual entry strategy providing multiple pathways to success.
Race 8 – $17,600 Starter Allowance (6 Furlongs)
Post time: 3:31 PM
Real Naughty (5G) emerges as a contender with solid recent form at this starter allowance level. Illini (4G) represents trainer Destin Heath and provides competitive speed figures.
The finale presents opportunities for players seeking value in competitive starter allowance company.
Jockey Analysis
Jose Bracho continues his productive relationship with trainer Jeffrey Radosevich and appears on multiple competitive mounts throughout the card. Mauro Cedillo brings consistent riding and tactical awareness to his assignments. Rocco Bowen represents trainer Timothy Hamm on several promising horses.
Trainer Insights
Gary Johnson saddles multiple horses across the card, indicating confidence in his stable’s current form. Timothy Hamm’s entries show consistent preparation patterns. Jeffrey Radosevich maintains competitive claiming horses at appropriate levels.
Wagering Strategies
Given the challenging weather conditions, focus on horses with proven wet-track ability and tactical speed. Daily double combinations connecting Race 1 (Matthew’s Patriot) with Race 2 (She’s So Sexy) offer solid value. The Pick 3 covering Races 2-4 presents opportunities with She’s So Sexy, First Act, and Shadowy forming a competitive sequence.
Exacta boxes in competitive claiming races provide betting value, particularly in Race 5 with the large field creating enhanced payoff potential. Weather conditions suggest favoring horses with early tactical speed over pure closers throughout the afternoon card.
