The commercial fireworks at Keeneland's September yearling sale reached a new pitch in Week 1, as three colts—two by Not This Time and one by Nyquist—each brought $2 million and helped push the auction to a record 65 million-dollar yearlings across the opening four sessions. For handicappers used to following pedigrees from the sales ring to the starting gate, the prices on these colts signal just how aggressively the market is betting that the next wave of classic horses will be sired by today's proven dirt stallions.
Through the first four days of the 83rd edition of the sale, Keeneland reported gross receipts of $318,115,000 for 633 yearlings sold, a 3.41% increase over the comparable period last year, with the average rising nearly 10% to just over $502,000 and the median up to $360,000. Keeneland officials noted that 65 yearlings hammered for at least $1 million, eclipsing last year's record of 56 million-dollar horses and underscoring intense competition for perceived top-end runners. The session-topping price for the week was a $3.7 million colt by Into Mischief sold by Glennwood Farm to the team of M. V. Magnier and Peter Brant's White Birch Farm, a sale highlighted in releases from both Keeneland and Spendthrift Farm.Paulick ReportSpendthrift Farm Gun Runner also stamped the opening week, leading all sires by gross with roughly $37.8 million in sales for 42 yearlings and an average near $900,000 according to farm and sale reports.Paulick ReportThree Chimneys
The first of the $2 million Not This Time colts, cataloged as Hip 803, came from the same Glennwood Farm program that produced Justify and Vino Rosso, a connection that did not go unnoticed by buyers or the betting public following the sale closely.Paulick Report The colt is the first foal out of Curlin mare Spell On You, a half-sister to Triple Crown winner Justify and from the family of graded stakes winner The Lieutenant and stakes winner Stage Raider, positioning him squarely in a classic-oriented dirt family that handicappers will recognize when his name shows up in future past performances.BloodHorse Trainer Chad Summers signed the ticket as agent for Al Gold's Gold Square, the same partnership that campaigned Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, and told industry press that the colt had the look of a top-of-the-sale horse even though he appeared on Day 4 of Book 2.Paulick Report Glennwood's John Gunther described the colt as having the characteristic hip of Not This Time and admitted the final hammer far exceeded the reserve, a reminder of how aggressively the buying bench is chasing perceived top-class dirt colts.BloodHorse
The second $2 million Not This Time colt to light up the board brought a different angle that will resonate with bettors who remember the mare on the track: he is out of Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can, a longtime Airdrie Stud foundation mare. Consigned by Airdrie Stud and knocked down to Peter Fluor and K. C. Weiner's Speedway Stable, the colt is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Conclude and stakes winner Believe in Royalty, reinforcing a pattern of Oaks-grade stamina and mid-range speed that often translates into productive three-year-old campaigns on dirt.Paulick ReportBloodHorse Airdrie's Bret Jones told reporters that the colt was a “masculine” version of his dam and the “spitting image” of Believe You Can, while agent Marette Farrell, who signed the ticket, described him as the most physically impressive Not This Time progeny she had seen at the sale—comments that echo the visual impression buyers look for when projecting future graded-stakes dirt performers.BloodHorse
The third headline act was a Nyquist colt who further cemented his sire's commercial resurgence after Nyquist's first major runners began hitting the classics and Breeders' Cup trail.Keeneland Cataloged as a half-brother to stakes winner and Grade 3-placed Light Won Up, the colt is out of stakes winner Factorofwon and was consigned by Betz Thoroughbreds. The partnership of St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, Lane's End Racing, and Belladonna Racing went to $2 million to secure him, with St. Elias executive Monique Delk calling the colt “the whole package” thanks to his sire line and a particularly fluid walk, the kind of physical presence that often leads trainers to map out ambitious two- and three-year-old campaigns on dirt for their high-end prospects.Paulick ReportBloodHorse BloodHorse noted that this colt became the seventh Nyquist yearling to crack $1 million at this year's September sale and highlighted that Nyquist stood the 2026 season at Darley near Lexington for an advertised fee of $175,000, a stud fee level consistent with stallions whose progeny are expected to show up in major graded stakes where handicappers focus their serious play.BloodHorse
The St. Elias–West Point–Lane's End–Belladonna partnership was a consistent presence at the top of the buyer leaderboard throughout Week 1, finishing the first four sessions as leading purchaser with 16 yearlings bought for roughly $13.9 million and topping Thursday's session with five yearlings for about $5.5 million. Their spree included other seven-figure Not This Time colts and a series of high-end Nyquist and Into Mischief yearlings, reinforcing an acquisition strategy built around stallions whose progeny have already proven they can win major American dirt races.Thoroughbred Daily News Greg Goodman's Mt. Brilliant Farm added to the high-end action with three yearlings reaching seven figures, led by a Not This Time colt out of Unbridled's Song mare Miss Exclusive—herself from the family of top-level turf and dirt runners like Champs Elysees and Banks Hill—who brought $1.65 million from the same St. Elias partnership.Paulick Report For bettors looking ahead, these buying patterns matter: the connections consistently spending at the top of the market are often those willing to campaign horses aggressively in graded stakes where form lines cross and betting opportunities multiply.
Under the surface of the headline prices, the sale's structure tells an important story about stallion momentum and risk appetite that handicappers can fold into long-term pedigree notes. Opening Book 1 sessions saw 208 yearlings sell for $151.4 million, up more than $7 million year-over-year despite fewer horses changing hands, while the buyback rate hovered just under 29%, indicating that buyers were selective but willing to stretch for what they perceived as genuine top-shelf prospects.Thoroughbred Daily News In parallel coverage, sale officials acknowledged that the RNA rate for Week 1 blended around 30%, a few points higher than last year, underscoring that while the very top is frothy, sellers still have to meet a rational market in the middle tiers. Against that backdrop, Not This Time's status as a leading general sire—bolstered by runners like Napoleon Solo—helps explain why buyers were comfortable paying seven figures for his yearlings that fit the classic dirt profile, while Nyquist's Derby-winning resume and rising fee structure support similarly aggressive valuations for his best physicals.BloodHorse
From a racing standpoint, the colts sold for $2 million and up are unlikely to impact everyday handicapping in the next year, but their presence will be felt when they graduate to top barns and begin appearing in maiden specials at major tracks in late 2027 and beyond. Buyers like Gold Square and the St. Elias partnership have demonstrated a willingness to campaign their stars in traditional stakes routes—the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness trails and the Breeders' Cup—giving bettors clear targets to follow once these yearlings reach the track and stretch out over two turns. Past sale graduates such as Nyquist and Tapit Trice show that not every million-dollar colt becomes a champion, but those that do can shape betting markets for entire seasons, and the heavy demand for the progeny of stallions like Not This Time, Gun Runner, and Nyquist suggests that the next generation of headline horses will again emerge from the Keeneland September ring.Daily Racing FormThe Irish Field
