How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:32 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 67% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 43% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 60% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Seasonal Love (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Gonzalo (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 – More Power (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Ray Of Lov (9/2), 5 – Twelve Nelson (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Sharon's Prince (5/1), 6 – Battle Warrior (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-6-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Richeztoo (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Rocketeer (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Close The Gate (3/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Yes I Will (5/1), 5 – Party On Rufus (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-4-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Cafe La Paix (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Bonfiglio (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Metatron (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Daw Samaa (6/1), 9 – Calling On Heaven (12/1), 11 – Nilambar (10/1), 8 – Lord Donegal (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – St Pete's Passion (10/1), 2 – Real Men Violin (20/1), 12 – Don't Copy Me (8/1), 7 – Master Nibbles (10/1), 5 – My Pal Bill (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-11-12-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-12-8-10-6-11-4-1-7-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Chelsea Wall (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Classic Ballad (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Miti Fast Flower (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Patient Fi (6/1), 2 – Buckin' Right (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – C C Girl (10/1), 7 – Winkiwinki (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-6-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Ironsides (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Sky's Not Falling (9/2) |
| Show: | 8 – Cloud Music (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Roscoe Pine (6/1), 1 – Chuck Adams (10/1), 6 – One Bid (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Kitten's Ploy (15/1), 2 – Power Wrench (20/1), 9 – Adios Buster (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-8-9-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-6-8-3-4-7-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Pink Rose (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Don't Listen (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Braquet (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Neolithica (6/1), 4 – Miss Raucus (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Shkhara Fire (6/1), 3 – Ada May (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-6-3-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-4-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Racey Ruby (7/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Americandreammaker (8/5) |
| Show: | 7 – Tongue Twister (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Ariana Valentina (10/1), 2 – Chilling Factor (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Forest Acclamation (20/1), 4 – Rose Of Sharon (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-1-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-2-6-7-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Chiquilla's Storm (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Sassy Sangria (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Velveteen (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Molly The Cat (6/1), 5 – Ivey My Love (5/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Irie And Mellow (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Gonzalo (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – More Power (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Seasonal Love (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Sharon's Prince (5/1), 5 – Twelve Nelson (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Ray Of Lov (9/2), 6 – Battle Warrior (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-5-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-6-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Close The Gate (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Rocketeer (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Richeztoo (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Yes I Will (5/1), 5 – Party On Rufus (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Cafe La Paix (9/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Metatron (5/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Bonfiglio (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Daw Samaa (6/1), 9 – Calling On Heaven (12/1), 12 – Don't Copy Me (8/1), 8 – Lord Donegal (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – St Pete's Passion (10/1), 11 – Nilambar (10/1), 2 – Real Men Violin (20/1), 5 – My Pal Bill (15/1), 7 – Master Nibbles (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-11-12-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-12-8-10-6-11-4-1-7-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Chelsea Wall (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Classic Ballad (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Miti Fast Flower (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Patient Fi (6/1), 2 – Buckin' Right (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Winkiwinki (8/1), 4 – C C Girl (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-4-1-3-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Ironsides (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Sky's Not Falling (9/2) |
| Show: | 8 – Cloud Music (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Roscoe Pine (6/1), 1 – Chuck Adams (10/1), 6 – One Bid (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Kitten's Ploy (15/1), 2 – Power Wrench (20/1), 9 – Adios Buster (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-9-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-6-8-3-4-7-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Pink Rose (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Don't Listen (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Braquet (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Neolithica (6/1), 7 – Shkhara Fire (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Miss Raucus (8/1), 3 – Ada May (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-6-7-4-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-4-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Racey Ruby (7/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Americandreammaker (8/5) |
| Show: | 7 – Tongue Twister (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Chilling Factor (10/1), 6 – Ariana Valentina (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Rose Of Sharon (20/1), 3 – Forest Acclamation (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-2-6-7-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Velveteen (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Sassy Sangria (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Ivey My Love (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Molly The Cat (6/1), 1 – Chiquilla's Storm (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Irie And Mellow (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Ray Of Lov (9/2) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +39% |
| Place: | 5 – Twelve Nelson (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2 |
| Show: | 2 – Gonzalo (2/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -64% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – More Power (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -47%, 7 – Seasonal Love (8/1) 11% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Sharon's Prince (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38%, 6 – Battle Warrior (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-5-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-6-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Rocketeer (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 4 – Close The Gate (3/2) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -50% |
| Show: | 2 – Richeztoo (9/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -46% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Yes I Will (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1, 5 – Party On Rufus (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Daw Samaa (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1 |
| Place: | 11 – Nilambar (10/1) 12% · fair 7-1 overlay +42% |
| Show: | 3 – Metatron (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Cafe La Paix (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -41%, 1 – Bonfiglio (7/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -62%, 9 – Calling On Heaven (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 8 – Lord Donegal (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37% |
| Rest of field: | 12 – Don't Copy Me (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%, 10 – St Pete's Passion (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -34%, 5 – My Pal Bill (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 2 – Real Men Violin (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1, 7 – Master Nibbles (10/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -69% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-11-12-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-12-8-10-6-11-4-1-7-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #11, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Chelsea Wall (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 3 – Classic Ballad (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -26% |
| Show: | 5 – Patient Fi (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Miti Fast Flower (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%, 7 – Winkiwinki (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Buckin' Right (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 4 – C C Girl (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -38% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-4-1-6-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Ironsides (3/2) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -45% |
| Place: | 3 – Sky's Not Falling (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 8 – Cloud Music (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Roscoe Pine (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 1 – Chuck Adams (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 6 – One Bid (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Kitten's Ploy (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -32%, 9 – Adios Buster (20/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -48%, 2 – Power Wrench (20/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -57% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-9-5-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-6-8-3-4-7-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Pink Rose (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38% |
| Place: | 1 – Don't Listen (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27% |
| Show: | 5 – Braquet (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Neolithica (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 4 – Miss Raucus (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1 |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Shkhara Fire (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -41%, 3 – Ada May (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-4-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Americandreammaker (8/5) 27% · fair 3-1 underlay -42% |
| Place: | 1 – Racey Ruby (7/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -58% |
| Show: | 7 – Tongue Twister (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Ariana Valentina (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +68%, 2 – Chilling Factor (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Rose Of Sharon (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1, 3 – Forest Acclamation (20/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -38% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-2-6-7-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Velveteen (9/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -30% |
| Place: | 2 – Sassy Sangria (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2 |
| Show: | 4 – Molly The Cat (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Ivey My Love (5/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -62%, 1 – Chiquilla's Storm (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Irie And Mellow (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #4, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #1, #3, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #8, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #5, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.36 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 3 | 2 – Real Men Violin | 20/1 | — | 8.5% | +66.9% | 0.84% | $0.84 |
| 3 | 9 – Calling On Heaven | 12/1 | — | 12.8% | +56.7% | 1.18% | $1.18 |
| TOTAL across 2 plays: | 2.0% | $2.02 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Seasonal Love (8/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Ray Of Lov (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Gonzalo (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Twelve Nelson (6/1), 4 - Sharon's Prince (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - More Power (3/1), 6 - Battle Warrior (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-5-2-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-6-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Close The Gate (3/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Richeztoo (9/5) |
| Show: | 3 - Rocketeer (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Yes I Will (5/1), 5 - Party On Rufus (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Cafe La Paix (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Bonfiglio (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Metatron (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Daw Samaa (6/1), 9 - Calling On Heaven (12/1), 10 - St Pete's Passion (10/1), 8 - Lord Donegal (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11 - Nilambar (10/1), 5 - My Pal Bill (15/1), 12 - Don't Copy Me (8/1), 2 - Real Men Violin (20/1), 7 - Master Nibbles (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-11-1-12-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-12-8-10-6-11-4-1-7-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Chelsea Wall (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 - Classic Ballad (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Miti Fast Flower (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Winkiwinki (8/1), 5 - Patient Fi (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Buckin' Right (8/1), 4 - C C Girl (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-6-2-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Ironsides (3/2) |
| Place: | 8 - Cloud Music (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Sky's Not Falling (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Roscoe Pine (6/1), 1 - Chuck Adams (10/1), 6 - One Bid (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Power Wrench (20/1), 9 - Adios Buster (20/1), 4 - Kitten's Ploy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-8-9-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-6-8-3-4-7-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Pink Rose (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Don't Listen (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Braquet (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Shkhara Fire (6/1), 4 - Miss Raucus (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Neolithica (6/1), 3 - Ada May (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-7-1-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-4-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Racey Ruby (7/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Americandreammaker (8/5) |
| Show: | 7 - Tongue Twister (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Ariana Valentina (10/1), 2 - Chilling Factor (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Forest Acclamation (20/1), 4 - Rose Of Sharon (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-1-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-2-6-7-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Chiquilla's Storm (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Sassy Sangria (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Velveteen (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Molly The Cat (6/1), 5 - Ivey My Love (5/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Irie And Mellow (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Gonzalo (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Seasonal Love (8/1) |
| Show: | 3 - More Power (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Ray Of Lov (9/2), 4 - Sharon's Prince (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Twelve Nelson (6/1), 6 - Battle Warrior (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-2-5-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-6-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Richeztoo (9/5) |
| Place: | 4 - Close The Gate (3/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Rocketeer (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Yes I Will (5/1), 5 - Party On Rufus (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-4-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Cafe La Paix (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Bonfiglio (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Metatron (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - Calling On Heaven (12/1), 6 - Daw Samaa (6/1), 11 - Nilambar (10/1), 8 - Lord Donegal (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 - St Pete's Passion (10/1), 12 - Don't Copy Me (8/1), 5 - My Pal Bill (15/1), 2 - Real Men Violin (20/1), 7 - Master Nibbles (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-11-12-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-12-8-10-6-11-4-1-7-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Chelsea Wall (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 - Classic Ballad (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Patient Fi (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Miti Fast Flower (4/1), 2 - Buckin' Right (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - C C Girl (10/1), 7 - Winkiwinki (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-6-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Ironsides (3/2) |
| Place: | 8 - Cloud Music (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Sky's Not Falling (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Roscoe Pine (6/1), 1 - Chuck Adams (10/1), 6 - One Bid (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Power Wrench (20/1), 4 - Kitten's Ploy (15/1), 9 - Adios Buster (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-3-8-9-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-6-8-3-4-7-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Pink Rose (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Don't Listen (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Braquet (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Neolithica (6/1), 7 - Shkhara Fire (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Miss Raucus (8/1), 3 - Ada May (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-6-2-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-4-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1-70 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Racey Ruby (7/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Americandreammaker (8/5) |
| Show: | 7 - Tongue Twister (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Ariana Valentina (10/1), 2 - Chilling Factor (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Forest Acclamation (20/1), 4 - Rose Of Sharon (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-1-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-2-6-7-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Chiquilla's Storm (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Sassy Sangria (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Velveteen (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Molly The Cat (6/1), 5 - Ivey My Love (5/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Irie And Mellow (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #3,#4,#2 (75%) / R3: #6,#11,#3 (38%) / R4: #1,#3,#5 (62%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #1,#3,#5 (62%) / R5: #5,#3,#8 (63%) / R6: #2,#1,#5 (59%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #5,#3,#8 (63%) / R6: #2,#1,#5 (59%) / R7: #5,#1,#7 (69%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #2,#1,#5 (59%) / R7: #5,#1,#7 (69%) / R8: #3,#2,#4 (66%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #1,#3,#5 (62%) / R5: #5,#3,#8 (63%) / R6: #2,#1,#5 (59%) / R7: #5,#1,#7 (69%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16% |
| Pick 4 R5-8 | R5: #5,#3,#8 (63%) / R6: #2,#1,#5 (59%) / R7: #5,#1,#7 (69%) / R8: #3,#2,#4 (66%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADA MAY | ADIOS BUSTER | AMERICANDREAMMAKER | ARIANA VALENTINA | BATTLE WARRIOR |
| BRAQUET | BUCKIN' RIGHT | C C GIRL | CAFE LA PAIX | CALLING ON HEAVEN |
| CHILLING FACTOR | CHIQUILLA'S STORM | CHUCK ADAMS | CLASSIC BALLAD | CLOSE THE GATE |
| DAW SAMAA | DON'T COPY ME | DON'T LISTEN | FOREST ACCLAMATION | GONZALO |
| IRONSIDES | IVEY MY LOVE | KITTEN'S PLOY | LORD DONEGAL | MASTER NIBBLES |
| MISS RAUCUS | MITI FAST FLOWER | MOLLY THE CAT | MORE POWER | MY PAL BILL |
| NILAMBAR | ONE BID | PARTY ON RUFUS | PATIENT FI | PINK ROSE |
| RACEY RUBY | RAY OF LOV | REAL MEN VIOLIN | RICHEZTOO | ROCKETEER |
| ROSE OF SHARON | SASSY SANGRIA | SEASONAL LOVE | SHARON'S PRINCE | SHKHARA FIRE |
| ST PETE'S PASSION | TONGUE TWISTER | TWELVE NELSON | VELVETEEN | WINKIWINKI |
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