Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Albuquerque Downs, September 20, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:3 – Just Jane (5/2)
Place:9 – Never Surrender (9/2)
Show:10 – B D One (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Louie's Mark (8/1), 1 – Equal Opportunity (8/1), 6 – Remarkable Me (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – C'mon Bren (20/1), 8 – Bryn's Lil Homme (12/1), 4 – H M Holy Bad Boy (20/1), 7 – Day Ruler (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-9-10-2-1-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-4-10-9-2-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:6 – Crimson Crusader (7/2)
Place:7 – Haywire (5/2)
Show:5 – Letsdothetwist (9/2)
Other contenders:4 – Jennys Tamale (8/1), 1 – Runaway Q (10/1), 10 – Mark's Waltz (8/1)
Rest of field:8 – Marko Loco (20/1), 9 – Boom Boom Go (12/1), 2 – Cuervita (20/1), 3 – Break The Curse (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-5-4-1-10
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-10-2-1-6-5-8-9-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:6 – Pepper Mill (5/2)
Place:5 – Chandon (7/2)
Show:1 – Practical Dream (9/2)
Other contenders:7 – Whiskey High (3/1), 4 – Tiz The Spirit (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Honky Tonk Honey (8/1), 2 – Pink Pacific (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-2-6-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-2-7-5-1-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,800
Win:7 – Halo Rando (5/2)
Place:4 – Take Action (3/1)
Show:5 – Ferrari Red (7/2)
Other contenders:6 – Shudder (9/2), 1 – Crossrighthands (10/1), 2 – Nine Lives Elmer (8/1)
Rest of field:3 – Lord Hennessy (12/1), 8 – Dance Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-3-5-6-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-1-2-3-5-6-8
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:3 – Just Jane (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:9 – Never Surrender (9/2) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +28%
Show:10 – B D One (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -43%
Other contenders:1 – Equal Opportunity (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 2 – Louie's Mark (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 5 – C'mon Bren (20/1) 6% · fair 29-2 overlay +36%
Rest of field:6 – Remarkable Me (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43%, 8 – Bryn's Lil Homme (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -45%, 4 – H M Holy Bad Boy (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 7 – Day Ruler (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%
🌧️ Off-track: 3-9-10-1-2-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-4-10-9-2-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:5 – Letsdothetwist (9/2) 23% · fair 7-2 overlay +38%
Place:7 – Haywire (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -43%
Show:4 – Jennys Tamale (8/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +68%
Other contenders:6 – Crimson Crusader (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -51%, 10 – Mark's Waltz (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 9 – Boom Boom Go (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2
Rest of field:2 – Cuervita (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1, 1 – Runaway Q (10/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -55%, 3 – Break The Curse (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%, 8 – Marko Loco (20/1) 2% · fair 63-1 underlay -68%
🌧️ Off-track: 5-7-4-6-10-9
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-10-2-1-6-5-8-9-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:6 – Pepper Mill (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Place:7 – Whiskey High (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -31%
Show:5 – Chandon (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:1 – Practical Dream (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2, 4 – Tiz The Spirit (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Rest of field:3 – Honky Tonk Honey (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 2 – Pink Pacific (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-2-1-4-6
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-2-7-5-1-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,800
Win:7 – Halo Rando (5/2) 36% · fair 2-1 overlay +42%
Place:4 – Take Action (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -32%
Show:6 – Shudder (9/2) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:1 – Crossrighthands (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +29%, 5 – Ferrari Red (7/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -65%, 3 – Lord Hennessy (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%
Rest of field:2 – Nine Lives Elmer (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 8 – Dance Man (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-7-6-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-1-2-3-5-6-8
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:1 – Equal Opportunity (8/1)
Place:2 – Louie's Mark (8/1)
Show:3 – Just Jane (5/2)
Other contenders:4 – H M Holy Bad Boy (20/1), 5 – C'mon Bren (20/1), 6 – Remarkable Me (10/1)
Rest of field:7 – Day Ruler (20/1), 8 – Bryn's Lil Homme (12/1), 9 – Never Surrender (9/2), 10 – B D One (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-4-10-9-2-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:1 – Runaway Q (10/1)
Place:4 – Jennys Tamale (8/1)
Show:7 – Haywire (5/2)
Other contenders:6 – Crimson Crusader (7/2), 10 – Mark's Waltz (8/1), 9 – Boom Boom Go (12/1)
Rest of field:5 – Letsdothetwist (9/2), 3 – Break The Curse (20/1), 8 – Marko Loco (20/1), 2 – Cuervita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-7-6-10-9
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-10-2-1-6-5-8-9-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:1 – Practical Dream (9/2)
Place:6 – Pepper Mill (5/2)
Show:5 – Chandon (7/2)
Other contenders:7 – Whiskey High (3/1), 4 – Tiz The Spirit (6/1)
Rest of field:2 – Pink Pacific (15/1), 3 – Honky Tonk Honey (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-6-2-3-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-2-7-5-1-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,800
Win:6 – Shudder (9/2)
Place:1 – Crossrighthands (10/1)
Show:7 – Halo Rando (5/2)
Other contenders:8 – Dance Man (20/1), 4 – Take Action (3/1), 3 – Lord Hennessy (12/1)
Rest of field:5 – Ferrari Red (7/2), 2 – Nine Lives Elmer (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-7-8-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-1-2-3-5-6-8
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structures

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #9 ($1 straight; box #3-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #6, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #7 over #4 ($1 straight; box #7-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Plays
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic)    Morning-line reliability: +0.40 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
78 – Marko Loco20/16.7%+34.3%0.43%$0.43
98 – Dance Man20/15.9%+21.4%0.27%$0.27
65 – C'Mon Bren20/15.6%+14.8%0.18%$0.18
TOTAL across 3 plays:0.9%$0.88
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:1 - Equal Opportunity (8/1)
Place:2 - Louie's Mark (8/1)
Show:3 - Just Jane (5/2)
Other contenders:4 - H M Holy Bad Boy (20/1), 5 - C'mon Bren (20/1), 6 - Remarkable Me (10/1)
Rest of field:7 - Day Ruler (20/1), 8 - Bryn's Lil Homme (12/1), 9 - Never Surrender (9/2), 10 - B D One (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-4-10-9-2-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:7 - Haywire (5/2)
Place:6 - Crimson Crusader (7/2)
Show:1 - Runaway Q (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Jennys Tamale (8/1), 5 - Letsdothetwist (9/2), 10 - Mark's Waltz (8/1)
Rest of field:9 - Boom Boom Go (12/1), 3 - Break The Curse (20/1), 8 - Marko Loco (20/1), 2 - Cuervita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-1-4-5-10
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-10-2-1-6-5-8-9-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5 - Chandon (7/2)
Place:1 - Practical Dream (9/2)
Show:7 - Whiskey High (3/1)
Other contenders:6 - Pepper Mill (5/2), 4 - Tiz The Spirit (6/1)
Rest of field:3 - Honky Tonk Honey (8/1), 2 - Pink Pacific (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-6-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-2-7-5-1-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,800
Win:7 - Halo Rando (5/2)
Place:6 - Shudder (9/2)
Show:4 - Take Action (3/1)
Other contenders:5 - Ferrari Red (7/2), 1 - Crossrighthands (10/1), 3 - Lord Hennessy (12/1)
Rest of field:2 - Nine Lives Elmer (8/1), 8 - Dance Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-4-5-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-1-2-3-5-6-8
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:1 - Equal Opportunity (8/1)
Place:2 - Louie's Mark (8/1)
Show:3 - Just Jane (5/2)
Other contenders:4 - H M Holy Bad Boy (20/1), 5 - C'mon Bren (20/1), 6 - Remarkable Me (10/1)
Rest of field:7 - Day Ruler (20/1), 8 - Bryn's Lil Homme (12/1), 9 - Never Surrender (9/2), 10 - B D One (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-5-4-10-9-2-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $10,000
Win:7 - Haywire (5/2)
Place:6 - Crimson Crusader (7/2)
Show:1 - Runaway Q (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Jennys Tamale (8/1), 5 - Letsdothetwist (9/2), 10 - Mark's Waltz (8/1)
Rest of field:9 - Boom Boom Go (12/1), 8 - Marko Loco (20/1), 3 - Break The Curse (20/1), 2 - Cuervita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-1-4-5-10
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-10-2-1-6-5-8-9-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:6 - Pepper Mill (5/2)
Place:5 - Chandon (7/2)
Show:1 - Practical Dream (9/2)
Other contenders:7 - Whiskey High (3/1), 4 - Tiz The Spirit (6/1)
Rest of field:3 - Honky Tonk Honey (8/1), 2 - Pink Pacific (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-5-1-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-2-7-5-1-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,800
Win:7 - Halo Rando (5/2)
Place:4 - Take Action (3/1)
Show:6 - Shudder (9/2)
Other contenders:5 - Ferrari Red (7/2), 1 - Crossrighthands (10/1), 2 - Nine Lives Elmer (8/1)
Rest of field:8 - Dance Man (20/1), 3 - Lord Hennessy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-6-5-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-1-2-3-5-6-8
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R6-8R6: #3,#9,#10 (59%) / R7: #5,#7,#4 (59%) / R8: #6,#7,#5 (58%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #5,#7,#4 (59%) / R8: #6,#7,#5 (58%) / R9: #7,#4,#6 (66%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #3,#9,#10 (59%) / R7: #5,#7,#4 (59%) / R8: #6,#7,#5 (58%) / R9: #7,#4,#6 (66%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Index - Horses Running In This Card
A CARTELS DREAMA CLASSY RULERA FLASHIN CORONAALL ABOUT EVEAPOLLITICAL JACKIE
BAMBI CARTELBF DADDYS OUTRAGEBF FLYRAGEOUSBOOM BOOM GOBREAK THE CURSE
BRYN'S LIL HOMMEC'MON BRENCHANDONCONFLICTCQ FEATURED FIRST
CROSSRIGHTHANDSCUERVITADANCE MANDAY RULERDON CHUY JR
ELSICARIO WALKEDAWAYEQUAL OPPORTUNITYEYE AM CANDYEYEM OUT OF HEREFERRARI RED
FIRESIDE CHATGETOUTOFTHEWAYBABYGHOST DREAMSH M HOLY BAD BOYHALO RANDO
HAYWIREHOME TOWN ROLLHONKY TONK HONEYHS DANGER WEAPONI CANT STOP NOW
JENNYS TAMALEJESS A PILOTOJESS OBEDJLB THE RED EYEJOSHS WILDFIRE
JUST JANEKAMA PATRIOTKING ADROCKLETSDOTHETWISTLORD HENNESSY
MAGICAL MARFAMARK'S WALTZMARKO LOCOMEXICAN MOONFLASHMISTER LIGHTS OUT
NIGHTINSHININGARMORNINE LIVES ELMERPEPPER MILLPINK PACIFICPITCHINS TRAIN B
REMARKABLE MERR FAMOUS TACHARUNAWAY QRZ RICHYSECRET CRUSH BB
SIT DOWN SHUT UPSTACEYS HEAVENSENTTAKE ACTIONTHEADOROTITOS MEMORY
TWIST 'N SPORTULTIMATE DECISIONVALIANT POLITICIANVIVA LE VENUSWHIRLAWAY ILEXUS
ZEE QUEEN

 


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