Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Fairmount Park, September 22, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks

How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 7:51 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1721129%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)822225%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)823125%
Experimental Weight Set 2831138%
Experimental Weight Set 3832138%

Kelly Edge Plays: 7 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 1 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
FPK4Model Algo 1#6 – Ghaly Posse1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 4 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. That agreement is the strongest single signal we have measured: across 1,389 graded races, the races where they agreed won 39.8% of the time against 28.6% where they did not — a wider gap than between any two of our own algorithms.

Today's agreement races — FP 1, 5, 6, 7.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500
Win:3Richochet Rick (1/2)
Place:1Incorporated (5/1)
Show:7Tap The Prize (9/2)
Other contenders:2Last Call Geno (10/1), 8Dan B (15/1), 4Allkindsoftrouble (20/1)
Rest of field:5American Blend (30/1), 6Stormystormynight (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-2-8-4-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-7-2-1-8-4-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Izzy's Monster (7/5)
Place:5What's Crackin (5/2)
Show:8Retail Therapy (5/1)
Other contenders:2Deal'em And Weep (9/1), 1Hot Dame (12/1), 6Wicked Sky (8/1)
Rest of field:3Scrapbook (20/1), 9Heavenly Hash (30/1), 4Grazen Gator (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-8-3-9
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-8-2-6-3-4-9
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:6Spicy Cantaloupe (9/5)
Place:5Sweet Skylar (8/5)
Show:1Code Of Conduct (5/2)
Other contenders:7Lucky Monica (12/1), 3Tizswiftysmusic (20/1)
Rest of field:2Fear The Queen (20/1), 4True Effect (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-6-5-7-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-6-1-4-7-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000
Win:6Ghaly Posse (9/5)
Place:4Julynne (2/1)
Show:5Ghaaleb's City (5/2)
Other contenders:2Arose For Lyla (7/1), 1Wildcat Bobbie (8/1)
Rest of field:3Cantoo (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-2-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-4-5-1-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Honor Point (3/2)
Place:1Jack Sixpack (3/1)
Show:4More Than Destiny (5/2)
Other contenders:3Sweet La Crema (4/1), 5Cool Memory (12/1)
Rest of field:6Adios Kid (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-5-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 2-4-1-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500
Win:3Illini Red (4/5)
Place:7Tahoe Run (7/1)
Show:1Onthewayjimmy (8/1)
Other contenders:6Irish Spark (9/1), 4Dream Gold (6/1), 5Even The Wind (12/1)
Rest of field:8Grayhop (10/1), 2Nella (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-6-7-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-6-8-5-2-7-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,400
Win:4Grace Met Cupid (2/5)
Place:5Averyz Day (6/1)
Show:9Last Moon (7/1)
Other contenders:6Gibran (9/1), 7Nathaniel's Hope (20/1), 2Frosted Warrior (20/1)
Rest of field:1Stunning Bruno (30/1), 3After My Brother (30/1), 8Awesome Drew (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-4-5-2-3
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-5-9-7-2-1-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:1Sound Of Victory (7/2)
Place:2Camp Daddy (7/2)
Show:5Category Ten (3/1)
Other contenders:3Jack Sprat (5/1), 9Zee Fire (9/1), 4Double Thunder (12/1)
Rest of field:8Beyond Best (15/1), 10Personal Jet (10/1), 7Wicked Gus (20/1), 6Gun It And Run It (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-9-8-10-6
🎯 Longshots: 9-5-2-1-10-4-8-3-7-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500
Win:3Richochet Rick (1/2) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -82%
Place:1Incorporated (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +30%
Show:7Tap The Prize (9/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:2Last Call Geno (10/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +81%, 8Dan B (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 4Allkindsoftrouble (20/1) 5% · fair 41-2
Rest of field:6Stormystormynight (30/1) 4% · fair 22-1 overlay +36%, 5American Blend (30/1) 3% · fair 34-1
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Richochet Rick — 27.0% win probability, morning line 0.5/1Richochet Rick27.0% ◀Incorporated — 20.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Incorporated20.6%Tap The Prize — 19.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Tap The Prize19.5%Last Call Geno — 15.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Last Call Geno15.3%Dan B — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Dan B5.8%Allkindsoftrouble — 4.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Allkindsoftrouble4.6%Stormystormynight — 4.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Stormystormynight4.3%American Blend — 2.9% win probability, morning line 30/1American Blend2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Richochet Rick27.0%0.5/1
Incorporated20.6%5/1
Tap The Prize19.5%4.5/1
Last Call Geno15.3%10/1
Dan B5.8%15/1
Allkindsoftrouble4.6%20/1
Stormystormynight4.3%30/1
American Blend2.9%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRichochet Rick: model 27.0% vs market 52.1% (-25.1 points)Richochet Rick-25.1Incorporated: model 20.6% vs market 13.0% (+7.6 points)Incorporated+7.6Tap The Prize: model 19.5% vs market 14.2% (+5.3 points)Tap The Prize+5.3Last Call Geno: model 15.3% vs market 7.1% (+8.2 points)Last Call Geno+8.2Dan B: model 5.8% vs market 4.9% (+0.9 points)Dan B+0.9Allkindsoftrouble: model 4.6% vs market 3.7% (+0.9 points)Allkindsoftrouble+0.9Stormystormynight: model 4.3% vs market 2.5% (+1.8 points)Stormystormynight+1.8American Blend: model 2.9% vs market 2.5% (+0.4 points)American Blend+0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Richochet Rick27.0%52.1%-25.1
Incorporated20.6%13.0%+7.6
Tap The Prize19.5%14.2%+5.3
Last Call Geno15.3%7.1%+8.2
Dan B5.8%4.9%+0.9
Allkindsoftrouble4.6%3.7%+0.9
Stormystormynight4.3%2.5%+1.8
American Blend2.9%2.5%+0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-2-8-4-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-7-2-1-8-4-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Izzy's Monster (7/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -58%
Place:8Retail Therapy (5/1) 21% · fair 7-2 overlay +34%
Show:5What's Crackin (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:2Deal'em And Weep (9/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 6Wicked Sky (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 1Hot Dame (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Rest of field:3Scrapbook (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 9Heavenly Hash (30/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 4Grazen Gator (30/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -48%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Izzy'S Monster — 22.9% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Izzy'S Monster22.9% ◀Retail Therapy — 21.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Retail Therapy21.2%What'S Crackin — 19.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1What'S Crackin19.9%Deal'Em And Weep — 10.5% win probability, morning line 9/1Deal'Em And Weep10.5%Wicked Sky — 9.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Wicked Sky9.6%Hot Dame — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Hot Dame6.8%Scrapbook — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Scrapbook3.8%Heavenly Hash — 3.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Heavenly Hash3.8%Grazen Gator — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Grazen Gator1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Izzy'S Monster22.9%1.4/1
Retail Therapy21.2%5/1
What'S Crackin19.9%2.5/1
Deal'Em And Weep10.5%9/1
Wicked Sky9.6%8/1
Hot Dame6.8%12/1
Scrapbook3.8%20/1
Heavenly Hash3.8%30/1
Grazen Gator1.7%30/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherIzzy'S Monster: model 22.9% vs market 32.8% (-10.0 points)Izzy'S Monster-10.0Retail Therapy: model 21.2% vs market 13.1% (+8.0 points)Retail Therapy+8.0What'S Crackin: model 19.9% vs market 22.5% (-2.7 points)What'S Crackin-2.7Deal'Em And Weep: model 10.5% vs market 7.9% (+2.6 points)Deal'Em And Weep+2.6Wicked Sky: model 9.6% vs market 8.8% (+0.8 points)Wicked Sky+0.8Hot Dame: model 6.8% vs market 6.1% (+0.7 points)Hot Dame+0.7Scrapbook: model 3.8% vs market 3.8% (+0.1 points)Scrapbook+0.1Heavenly Hash: model 3.8% vs market 2.5% (+1.3 points)Heavenly Hash+1.3Grazen Gator: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Grazen Gator-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Izzy'S Monster22.9%32.8%-10.0
Retail Therapy21.2%13.1%+8.0
What'S Crackin19.9%22.5%-2.7
Deal'Em And Weep10.5%7.9%+2.6
Wicked Sky9.6%8.8%+0.8
Hot Dame6.8%6.1%+0.7
Scrapbook3.8%3.8%+0.1
Heavenly Hash3.8%2.5%+1.3
Grazen Gator1.7%2.5%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-8-3-9
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-8-2-6-3-4-9
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:1Code Of Conduct (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:6Spicy Cantaloupe (9/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -36%
Show:5Sweet Skylar (8/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:7Lucky Monica (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3Tizswiftysmusic (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2
Rest of field:4True Effect (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29%, 2Fear The Queen (20/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -27%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Code Of Conduct — 29.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Code Of Conduct29.8% ◀Spicy Cantaloupe — 26.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Spicy Cantaloupe26.2%Sweet Skylar — 23.7% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Sweet Skylar23.7%Lucky Monica — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Lucky Monica6.9%Tizswiftysmusic — 5.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Tizswiftysmusic5.4%True Effect — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1True Effect4.5%Fear The Queen — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Fear The Queen3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Code Of Conduct29.8%2.5/1
Spicy Cantaloupe26.2%1.8/1
Sweet Skylar23.7%1.6/1
Lucky Monica6.9%12/1
Tizswiftysmusic5.4%20/1
True Effect4.5%15/1
Fear The Queen3.5%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCode Of Conduct: model 29.8% vs market 22.6% (+7.1 points)Code Of Conduct+7.1Spicy Cantaloupe: model 26.2% vs market 28.3% (-2.1 points)Spicy Cantaloupe-2.1Sweet Skylar: model 23.7% vs market 30.5% (-6.7 points)Sweet Skylar-6.7Lucky Monica: model 6.9% vs market 6.1% (+0.8 points)Lucky Monica+0.8Tizswiftysmusic: model 5.4% vs market 3.8% (+1.6 points)Tizswiftysmusic+1.6True Effect: model 4.5% vs market 5.0% (-0.4 points)True Effect-0.4Fear The Queen: model 3.5% vs market 3.8% (-0.3 points)Fear The Queen-0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Code Of Conduct29.8%22.6%+7.1
Spicy Cantaloupe26.2%28.3%-2.1
Sweet Skylar23.7%30.5%-6.7
Lucky Monica6.9%6.1%+0.8
Tizswiftysmusic5.4%3.8%+1.6
True Effect4.5%5.0%-0.4
Fear The Queen3.5%3.8%-0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-6-5-7-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-6-1-4-7-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000
Win:6Ghaly Posse (9/5) 31% · fair 5-2
Place:4Julynne (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -35%
Show:5Ghaaleb's City (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28%
Other contenders:2Arose For Lyla (7/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 1Wildcat Bobbie (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3Cantoo (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -26%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ghaly Posse — 30.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Ghaly Posse30.5% ◀Julynne — 24.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Julynne24.6%Ghaaleb'S City — 22.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Ghaaleb'S City22.3%Arose For Lyla — 11.1% win probability, morning line 7/1Arose For Lyla11.1%Wildcat Bobbie — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Wildcat Bobbie6.8%Cantoo — 4.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Cantoo4.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ghaly Posse30.5%1.8/1
Julynne24.6%2/1
Ghaaleb'S City22.3%2.5/1
Arose For Lyla11.1%7/1
Wildcat Bobbie6.8%8/1
Cantoo4.7%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-2-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-4-5-1-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Honor Point (3/2) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -40%
Place:1Jack Sixpack (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:3Sweet La Crema (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4More Than Destiny (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -49%, 5Cool Memory (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:6Adios Kid (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Honor Point — 28.5% win probability, morning line 1.5/1Honor Point28.5% ◀Jack Sixpack — 21.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Jack Sixpack21.1%Sweet La Crema — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Sweet La Crema20.4%More Than Destiny — 17.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1More Than Destiny17.1%Cool Memory — 8.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Cool Memory8.9%Adios Kid — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Adios Kid4.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Honor Point28.5%1.5/1
Jack Sixpack21.1%3/1
Sweet La Crema20.4%4/1
More Than Destiny17.1%2.5/1
Cool Memory8.9%12/1
Adios Kid4.1%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHonor Point: model 28.5% vs market 31.7% (-3.2 points)Honor Point-3.2Jack Sixpack: model 21.1% vs market 19.8% (+1.3 points)Jack Sixpack+1.3Sweet La Crema: model 20.4% vs market 15.9% (+4.5 points)Sweet La Crema+4.5More Than Destiny: model 17.1% vs market 22.7% (-5.6 points)More Than Destiny-5.6Cool Memory: model 8.9% vs market 6.1% (+2.8 points)Cool Memory+2.8Adios Kid: model 4.1% vs market 3.8% (+0.3 points)Adios Kid+0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Honor Point28.5%31.7%-3.2
Jack Sixpack21.1%19.8%+1.3
Sweet La Crema20.4%15.9%+4.5
More Than Destiny17.1%22.7%-5.6
Cool Memory8.9%6.1%+2.8
Adios Kid4.1%3.8%+0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-5-4-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 2-4-1-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500
Win:3Illini Red (4/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -66%
Place:7Tahoe Run (7/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:1Onthewayjimmy (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:8Grayhop (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 4Dream Gold (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%, 6Irish Spark (9/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:5Even The Wind (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 2Nella (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Illini Red — 29.9% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Illini Red29.9% ◀Tahoe Run — 13.4% win probability, morning line 7/1Tahoe Run13.4%Onthewayjimmy — 12.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Onthewayjimmy12.8%Grayhop — 10.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Grayhop10.1%Dream Gold — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Dream Gold9.9%Irish Spark — 9.8% win probability, morning line 9/1Irish Spark9.8%Even The Wind — 8.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Even The Wind8.4%Nella — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Nella5.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Illini Red29.9%0.8/1
Tahoe Run13.4%7/1
Onthewayjimmy12.8%8/1
Grayhop10.1%10/1
Dream Gold9.9%6/1
Irish Spark9.8%9/1
Even The Wind8.4%12/1
Nella5.7%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherIllini Red: model 29.9% vs market 43.9% (-14.0 points)Illini Red-14.0Tahoe Run: model 13.4% vs market 9.9% (+3.5 points)Tahoe Run+3.5Onthewayjimmy: model 12.8% vs market 8.8% (+4.0 points)Onthewayjimmy+4.0Grayhop: model 10.1% vs market 7.2% (+3.0 points)Grayhop+3.0Dream Gold: model 9.9% vs market 11.3% (-1.4 points)Dream Gold-1.4Irish Spark: model 9.8% vs market 7.9% (+1.9 points)Irish Spark+1.9Even The Wind: model 8.4% vs market 6.1% (+2.3 points)Even The Wind+2.3Nella: model 5.7% vs market 4.9% (+0.7 points)Nella+0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Illini Red29.9%43.9%-14.0
Tahoe Run13.4%9.9%+3.5
Onthewayjimmy12.8%8.8%+4.0
Grayhop10.1%7.2%+3.0
Dream Gold9.9%11.3%-1.4
Irish Spark9.8%7.9%+1.9
Even The Wind8.4%6.1%+2.3
Nella5.7%4.9%+0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-6-7-3-2
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-6-8-5-2-7-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,400
Win:4Grace Met Cupid (2/5) 37% · fair 3-2 underlay -76%
Place:9Last Moon (7/1) 16% · fair 5-1 overlay +36%
Show:5Averyz Day (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:6Gibran (9/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 7Nathaniel's Hope (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +28%, 2Frosted Warrior (20/1) 5% · fair 37-2
Rest of field:3After My Brother (30/1) 3% · fair 57-2, 8Awesome Drew (30/1) 3% · fair 59-2, 1Stunning Bruno (30/1) 3% · fair 75-2
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Grace Met Cupid — 37.3% win probability, morning line 0.4/1Grace Met Cupid37.3% ◀Last Moon — 16.3% win probability, morning line 7/1Last Moon16.3%Averyz Day — 14.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Averyz Day14.6%Gibran — 11.4% win probability, morning line 9/1Gibran11.4%Nathaniel'S Hope — 6.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Nathaniel'S Hope6.0%Frosted Warrior — 5.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Frosted Warrior5.1%After My Brother — 3.4% win probability, morning line 30/1After My Brother3.4%Awesome Drew — 3.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Awesome Drew3.3%Stunning Bruno — 2.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Stunning Bruno2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Grace Met Cupid37.3%0.4/1
Last Moon16.3%7/1
Averyz Day14.6%6/1
Gibran11.4%9/1
Nathaniel'S Hope6.0%20/1
Frosted Warrior5.1%20/1
After My Brother3.4%30/1
Awesome Drew3.3%30/1
Stunning Bruno2.6%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGrace Met Cupid: model 37.3% vs market 56.1% (-18.7 points)Grace Met Cupid-18.7Last Moon: model 16.3% vs market 9.8% (+6.5 points)Last Moon+6.5Averyz Day: model 14.6% vs market 11.2% (+3.4 points)Averyz Day+3.4Gibran: model 11.4% vs market 7.8% (+3.6 points)Gibran+3.6Nathaniel'S Hope: model 6.0% vs market 3.7% (+2.3 points)Nathaniel'S Hope+2.3Frosted Warrior: model 5.1% vs market 3.7% (+1.3 points)Frosted Warrior+1.3After My Brother: model 3.4% vs market 2.5% (+0.8 points)After My Brother+0.8Awesome Drew: model 3.3% vs market 2.5% (+0.8 points)Awesome Drew+0.8Stunning Bruno: model 2.6% vs market 2.5% (+0.1 points)Stunning Bruno+0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Grace Met Cupid37.3%56.1%-18.7
Last Moon16.3%9.8%+6.5
Averyz Day14.6%11.2%+3.4
Gibran11.4%7.8%+3.6
Nathaniel'S Hope6.0%3.7%+2.3
Frosted Warrior5.1%3.7%+1.3
After My Brother3.4%2.5%+0.8
Awesome Drew3.3%2.5%+0.8
Stunning Bruno2.6%2.5%+0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-3-5-4-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-5-9-7-2-1-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:1Sound Of Victory (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Place:2Camp Daddy (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%
Show:5Category Ten (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%
Other contenders:9Zee Fire (9/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +29%, 3Jack Sprat (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -36%, 10Personal Jet (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1
Rest of field:4Double Thunder (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 8Beyond Best (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 7Wicked Gus (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%, 6Gun It And Run It (30/1) 2% · fair 48-1 underlay -37%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sound Of Victory — 17.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sound Of Victory17.8% ◀Camp Daddy — 16.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Camp Daddy16.9%Category Ten — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Category Ten15.7%Zee Fire — 12.5% win probability, morning line 9/1Zee Fire12.5%Jack Sprat — 11.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Jack Sprat11.3%Personal Jet — 7.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Personal Jet7.8%Double Thunder — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Double Thunder6.9%Beyond Best — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Beyond Best5.8%Wicked Gus — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Wicked Gus3.3%Gun It And Run It — 2.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Gun It And Run It2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sound Of Victory17.8%3.5/1
Camp Daddy16.9%3.5/1
Category Ten15.7%3/1
Zee Fire12.5%9/1
Jack Sprat11.3%5/1
Personal Jet7.8%10/1
Double Thunder6.9%12/1
Beyond Best5.8%15/1
Wicked Gus3.3%20/1
Gun It And Run It2.0%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSound Of Victory: model 17.8% vs market 17.5% (+0.3 points)Sound Of Victory+0.3Camp Daddy: model 16.9% vs market 17.5% (-0.6 points)Camp Daddy-0.6Category Ten: model 15.7% vs market 19.7% (-4.0 points)Category Ten-4.0Zee Fire: model 12.5% vs market 7.9% (+4.6 points)Zee Fire+4.6Jack Sprat: model 11.3% vs market 13.1% (-1.8 points)Jack Sprat-1.8Personal Jet: model 7.8% vs market 7.2% (+0.6 points)Personal Jet+0.6Double Thunder: model 6.9% vs market 6.1% (+0.8 points)Double Thunder+0.8Beyond Best: model 5.8% vs market 4.9% (+0.9 points)Beyond Best+0.9Wicked Gus: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Wicked Gus-0.4Gun It And Run It: model 2.0% vs market 2.5% (-0.5 points)Gun It And Run It-0.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sound Of Victory17.8%17.5%+0.3
Camp Daddy16.9%17.5%-0.6
Category Ten15.7%19.7%-4.0
Zee Fire12.5%7.9%+4.6
Jack Sprat11.3%13.1%-1.8
Personal Jet7.8%7.2%+0.6
Double Thunder6.9%6.1%+0.8
Beyond Best5.8%4.9%+0.9
Wicked Gus3.3%3.7%-0.4
Gun It And Run It2.0%2.5%-0.5
🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-6-9-10-8
🎯 Longshots: 9-5-2-1-10-4-8-3-7-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500
Win:3Richochet Rick (1/2)
Place:2Last Call Geno (10/1)
Show:7Tap The Prize (9/2)
Other contenders:1Incorporated (5/1), 4Allkindsoftrouble (20/1), 8Dan B (15/1)
Rest of field:5American Blend (30/1), 6Stormystormynight (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-1-4-8-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-7-2-1-8-4-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Izzy's Monster (7/5)
Place:8Retail Therapy (5/1)
Show:5What's Crackin (5/2)
Other contenders:1Hot Dame (12/1), 2Deal'em And Weep (9/1), 6Wicked Sky (8/1)
Rest of field:4Grazen Gator (30/1), 9Heavenly Hash (30/1), 3Scrapbook (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-8-6-3-9
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-8-2-6-3-4-9
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:5Sweet Skylar (8/5)
Place:6Spicy Cantaloupe (9/5)
Show:1Code Of Conduct (5/2)
Other contenders:7Lucky Monica (12/1), 2Fear The Queen (20/1)
Rest of field:3Tizswiftysmusic (20/1), 4True Effect (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-6-3-7-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-6-1-4-7-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000
Win:4Julynne (2/1)
Place:6Ghaly Posse (9/5)
Show:5Ghaaleb's City (5/2)
Other contenders:2Arose For Lyla (7/1), 1Wildcat Bobbie (8/1)
Rest of field:3Cantoo (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-2-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-4-5-1-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Honor Point (3/2)
Place:1Jack Sixpack (3/1)
Show:3Sweet La Crema (4/1)
Other contenders:4More Than Destiny (5/2), 5Cool Memory (12/1)
Rest of field:6Adios Kid (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-4-6-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 2-4-1-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500
Win:3Illini Red (4/5)
Place:1Onthewayjimmy (8/1)
Show:5Even The Wind (12/1)
Other contenders:6Irish Spark (9/1), 7Tahoe Run (7/1), 8Grayhop (10/1)
Rest of field:4Dream Gold (6/1), 2Nella (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-6-7-4-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-6-8-5-2-7-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,400
Win:4Grace Met Cupid (2/5)
Place:5Averyz Day (6/1)
Show:9Last Moon (7/1)
Other contenders:6Gibran (9/1), 2Frosted Warrior (20/1), 1Stunning Bruno (30/1)
Rest of field:3After My Brother (30/1), 7Nathaniel's Hope (20/1), 8Awesome Drew (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-7-5-2-3
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-5-9-7-2-1-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:2Camp Daddy (7/2)
Place:5Category Ten (3/1)
Show:3Jack Sprat (5/1)
Other contenders:1Sound Of Victory (7/2), 9Zee Fire (9/1), 4Double Thunder (12/1)
Rest of field:10Personal Jet (10/1), 7Wicked Gus (20/1), 8Beyond Best (15/1), 6Gun It And Run It (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-2-9-4-10
🎯 Longshots: 9-5-2-1-10-4-8-3-7-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #8, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #4, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #9, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob ?)    Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
77Nathaniel'S Hope20/1—7.7%+64.7%0.81%$0.81
71Stunning Bruno30/1—4.7%+48.5%0.40%$0.40
18Dan B15/1—8.7%+41.2%0.69%$0.69
78Awesome Drew30/1—4.1%+29.4%0.25%$0.25
14Allkindsoftrouble20/1—6.1%+28.9%0.36%$0.36
87Wicked Gus20/1—5.7%+20.3%0.25%$0.25
72Frosted Warrior20/1—5.6%+18.0%0.22%$0.22
TOTAL across 7 plays:3.0%$2.99
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500
Win:4Allkindsoftrouble (20/1)
Place:1Incorporated (5/1)
Show:7Tap The Prize (9/2)
Other contenders:3Richochet Rick (1/2), 2Last Call Geno (10/1), 8Dan B (15/1)
Rest of field:6Stormystormynight (30/1), 5American Blend (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-7-2-3-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-7-2-1-8-4-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Izzy's Monster (7/5)
Place:5What's Crackin (5/2)
Show:8Retail Therapy (5/1)
Other contenders:1Hot Dame (12/1), 2Deal'em And Weep (9/1), 6Wicked Sky (8/1)
Rest of field:3Scrapbook (20/1), 4Grazen Gator (30/1), 9Heavenly Hash (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-8-6-3-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-8-2-6-3-4-9
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:5Sweet Skylar (8/5)
Place:6Spicy Cantaloupe (9/5)
Show:1Code Of Conduct (5/2)
Other contenders:7Lucky Monica (12/1), 3Tizswiftysmusic (20/1)
Rest of field:2Fear The Queen (20/1), 4True Effect (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-6-3-7-2
🎯 Longshots: 5-6-1-4-7-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000
Win:6Ghaly Posse (9/5)
Place:4Julynne (2/1)
Show:5Ghaaleb's City (5/2)
Other contenders:2Arose For Lyla (7/1), 1Wildcat Bobbie (8/1)
Rest of field:3Cantoo (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-2-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-4-5-1-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Honor Point (3/2)
Place:1Jack Sixpack (3/1)
Show:3Sweet La Crema (4/1)
Other contenders:4More Than Destiny (5/2), 5Cool Memory (12/1)
Rest of field:6Adios Kid (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-1-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 2-4-1-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500
Win:3Illini Red (4/5)
Place:7Tahoe Run (7/1)
Show:1Onthewayjimmy (8/1)
Other contenders:8Grayhop (10/1), 5Even The Wind (12/1), 6Irish Spark (9/1)
Rest of field:4Dream Gold (6/1), 2Nella (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-7-4-6-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-6-8-5-2-7-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,400
Win:4Grace Met Cupid (2/5)
Place:6Gibran (9/1)
Show:2Frosted Warrior (20/1)
Other contenders:5Averyz Day (6/1), 9Last Moon (7/1), 1Stunning Bruno (30/1)
Rest of field:7Nathaniel's Hope (20/1), 3After My Brother (30/1), 8Awesome Drew (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-5-7-9
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-5-9-7-2-1-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:1Sound Of Victory (7/2)
Place:2Camp Daddy (7/2)
Show:3Jack Sprat (5/1)
Other contenders:8Beyond Best (15/1), 9Zee Fire (9/1), 5Category Ten (3/1)
Rest of field:7Wicked Gus (20/1), 10Personal Jet (10/1), 4Double Thunder (12/1), 6Gun It And Run It (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-8-9-10
🎯 Longshots: 9-5-2-1-10-4-8-3-7-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500
Win:3Richochet Rick (1/2)
Place:7Tap The Prize (9/2)
Show:1Incorporated (5/1)
Other contenders:2Last Call Geno (10/1), 4Allkindsoftrouble (20/1), 8Dan B (15/1)
Rest of field:6Stormystormynight (30/1), 5American Blend (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-2-4-3-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-7-2-1-8-4-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Izzy's Monster (7/5)
Place:8Retail Therapy (5/1)
Show:5What's Crackin (5/2)
Other contenders:1Hot Dame (12/1), 2Deal'em And Weep (9/1), 6Wicked Sky (8/1)
Rest of field:4Grazen Gator (30/1), 3Scrapbook (20/1), 9Heavenly Hash (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-8-6-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-5-8-2-6-3-4-9
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:5Sweet Skylar (8/5)
Place:6Spicy Cantaloupe (9/5)
Show:1Code Of Conduct (5/2)
Other contenders:7Lucky Monica (12/1), 4True Effect (15/1)
Rest of field:3Tizswiftysmusic (20/1), 2Fear The Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-6-3-7-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-6-1-4-7-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000
Win:6Ghaly Posse (9/5)
Place:4Julynne (2/1)
Show:5Ghaaleb's City (5/2)
Other contenders:2Arose For Lyla (7/1), 1Wildcat Bobbie (8/1)
Rest of field:3Cantoo (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-2-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-4-5-1-3-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Honor Point (3/2)
Place:1Jack Sixpack (3/1)
Show:3Sweet La Crema (4/1)
Other contenders:4More Than Destiny (5/2), 5Cool Memory (12/1)
Rest of field:6Adios Kid (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-4-1-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 2-4-1-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500
Win:3Illini Red (4/5)
Place:5Even The Wind (12/1)
Show:1Onthewayjimmy (8/1)
Other contenders:7Tahoe Run (7/1), 4Dream Gold (6/1), 8Grayhop (10/1)
Rest of field:6Irish Spark (9/1), 2Nella (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-4-7-6-8
🎯 Longshots: 3-1-6-8-5-2-7-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,400
Win:4Grace Met Cupid (2/5)
Place:9Last Moon (7/1)
Show:5Averyz Day (6/1)
Other contenders:6Gibran (9/1), 1Stunning Bruno (30/1), 2Frosted Warrior (20/1)
Rest of field:7Nathaniel's Hope (20/1), 3After My Brother (30/1), 8Awesome Drew (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-7-5-9-1
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-5-9-7-2-1-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:1Sound Of Victory (7/2)
Place:2Camp Daddy (7/2)
Show:5Category Ten (3/1)
Other contenders:3Jack Sprat (5/1), 9Zee Fire (9/1), 4Double Thunder (12/1)
Rest of field:10Personal Jet (10/1), 7Wicked Gus (20/1), 8Beyond Best (15/1), 6Gun It And Run It (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-9-4-10
🎯 Longshots: 9-5-2-1-10-4-8-3-7-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R2: #7,#8,#5 (64%) / R3: #1,#6,#5 (80%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #7,#8,#5 (64%) / R3: #1,#6,#5 (80%) / R4: #6,#4,#5 (77%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 39%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #1,#6,#5 (80%) / R4: #6,#4,#5 (77%) / R5: #2,#1,#3 (70%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 43%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #6,#4,#5 (77%) / R5: #2,#1,#3 (70%) / R6: #3,#7,#1 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R2: #7,#8,#5 (64%) / R3: #1,#6,#5 (80%) / R4: #6,#4,#5 (77%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #7,#8,#5 (64%) / R3: #1,#6,#5 (80%) / R4: #6,#4,#5 (77%) / R5: #2,#1,#3 (70%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADIOS KIDAFTER MY BROTHERALLKINDSOFTROUBLEAMERICAN BLENDAROSE FOR LYLA
AWESOME DREWBEYOND BESTCAMP DADDYCANTOOCATEGORY TEN
COOL MEMORYDAN BDEAL'EM AND WEEPDOUBLE THUNDERDREAM GOLD
FEAR THE QUEENFROSTED WARRIORGHAALEB'S CITYGHALY POSSEGIBRAN
GRAYHOPGRAZEN GATORGUN IT AND RUN ITHEAVENLY HASHHONOR POINT
ILLINI REDINCORPORATEDIRISH SPARKIZZY'S MONSTERJACK SIXPACK
JULYNNELAST CALL GENOLAST MOONLUCKY MONICAMORE THAN DESTINY
NELLAONTHEWAYJIMMYPERSONAL JETRETAIL THERAPYRICHOCHET RICK
SOUND OF VICTORYSPICY CANTALOUPESTORMYSTORMYNIGHTSTUNNING BRUNOSWEET LA CREMA
TAHOE RUNTAP THE PRIZETIZSWIFTYSMUSICTRUE EFFECTWHAT'S CRACKIN
WICKED SKYWILDCAT BOBBIEZEE FIRE

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback