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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, September 23, 2026

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How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:36 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1731043%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)711214%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)630150%
Experimental Weight Set 2731043%
Experimental Weight Set 3840150%

Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
IND4Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#1 – Bourbiana1 scratch(es)
IND8Model Algo 1#4 – Sweet Jannaelise1 scratch(es)
IND8Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#4 – Sweet Jannaelise1 scratch(es)
IND8Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#8 – Si O Si1 scratch(es)
IND8Model Weight set 2#8 – Si O Si1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Longshot ⭐: IND Race 1 — Bergen (SCRATCHED)

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 6 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. That agreement is the strongest single signal we have measured: across 1,389 graded races, the races where they agreed won 39.8% of the time against 28.6% where they did not — a wider gap than between any two of our own algorithms.

Today's agreement races — IND 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Latigo (2/1)
Place:6Healing Waters (4/1)
Show:4Commander Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:2Bergen (10/1), 5Rigoberto (8/1)
Rest of field:7Dreaming Smart (6/1), 1Maximus C (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 137624
🎯 Longshots: 3526471
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Sakra's Quest (5/2)
Place:4Cloudy Star (8/5)
Show:2Stanka (4/1)
Other contenders:5Littleransomsfire (5/1), 6Sweet Saint (10/1)
Rest of field:1Molly's Potion (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132546
🎯 Longshots: 436125
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Grandfather Sir (3/1)
Place:4Victory On Ice (7/2)
Show:7Trick Shot Tommy (4/1)
Other contenders:1Uncle Tuff (5/1), 8Chief Of Change (6/1), 10Bignetti (8/1)
Rest of field:6Speight's Promise (12/1), 9Play Action (10/1), 3Suspenders (20/1), 2C R George (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5471810
🎯 Longshots: 58732101496
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Bourbiana (2/1)
Place:10Abha (2/1)
Show:7High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Other contenders:4Cinquante Cinq (3/1), 9Princess Huxley (6/1), 8Speightsy Rival (15/1)
Rest of field:3Party To The Max (12/1), 2Royal Scarlett (15/1), 6What B (20/1), 5Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9511074
🎯 Longshots: 10128367495
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:7Molly's Town (8/5)
Place:2Hawkeye (7/2)
Show:5Cupid's Runaway (9/2)
Other contenders:3Mondavila (6/1), 1Scotty's On Edge (10/1)
Rest of field:4Oil Man (8/1), 6Willy's In Charge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 275314
🎯 Longshots: 7146253
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $38,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Koger Lane (7/2)
Place:3I Forgot It (3/1)
Show:6Country Embrace (5/1)
Other contenders:1Tap Bonnet (5/1), 2Tiz Wine Time (12/1), 7Jolly Justice (12/1)
Rest of field:9Maximum Spirit (12/1), 5Pink Picture (8/1), 4Rafaella (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675814
🎯 Longshots: 375689412
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:3The Kid Pataky (2/1)
Place:2Hot Middles (5/2)
Show:7Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Other contenders:6Relentless Chick (6/1), 1Bits Of Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:4Ekati Flatter (8/1), 5City Prayers (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127564
🎯 Longshots: 2314756
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:11Get Even Kid (2/1)
Place:4Sweet Jannaelise (7/2)
Show:8Si O Si (3/1)
Other contenders:1Inclusive Justice (9/2), 7Midnight Caper (6/1), 5Goody Two Socks (10/1), 9Skippinjustice (8/1)
Rest of field:2Flowered (15/1), 3Gonnagetchagetcha (20/1), 6Prettyontheprarie (20/1), 10Tamarac Square (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 258361
🎯 Longshots: 5118394127610
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 56 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-21.

0%16%32%49%65%Our top pick: 51.8% from 56 racesOur top pick51.8%Morning-line favourite: 46.4% from 56 racesMorning-line favourite46.4%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick51.8%56
Morning-line favourite46.4%56
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:3Latigo (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:6Healing Waters (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:4Commander Storm (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:2Bergen (10/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +58%, 5Rigoberto (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Rest of field:7Dreaming Smart (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 1Maximus C (5/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -70%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Latigo — 27.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Latigo27.6% ◀Healing Waters — 17.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Healing Waters17.9%Commander Storm — 15.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Commander Storm15.7%Bergen — 13.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Bergen13.7%Rigoberto — 10.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Rigoberto10.8%Dreaming Smart — 8.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Dreaming Smart8.6%Maximus C — 5.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Maximus C5.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Latigo27.6%2/1
Healing Waters17.9%4/1
Commander Storm15.7%6/1
Bergen13.7%10/1
Rigoberto10.8%8/1
Dreaming Smart8.6%6/1
Maximus C5.7%5/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLatigo: model 27.6% vs market 28.1% (-0.5 points)Latigo-0.5Healing Waters: model 17.9% vs market 16.8% (+1.0 points)Healing Waters+1.0Commander Storm: model 15.7% vs market 12.0% (+3.7 points)Commander Storm+3.7Bergen: model 13.7% vs market 7.7% (+6.0 points)Bergen+6.0Rigoberto: model 10.8% vs market 9.4% (+1.5 points)Rigoberto+1.5Dreaming Smart: model 8.6% vs market 12.0% (-3.4 points)Dreaming Smart-3.4Maximus C: model 5.7% vs market 14.0% (-8.4 points)Maximus C-8.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Latigo27.6%28.1%-0.5
Healing Waters17.9%16.8%+1.0
Commander Storm15.7%12.0%+3.7
Bergen13.7%7.7%+6.0
Rigoberto10.8%9.4%+1.5
Dreaming Smart8.6%12.0%-3.4
Maximus C5.7%14.0%-8.4
🌧️ Off-track: 173624
🎯 Longshots: 3526471
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Cloudy Star (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -37%
Place:3Sakra's Quest (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:2Stanka (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Littleransomsfire (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 6Sweet Saint (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:1Molly's Potion (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cloudy Star — 28.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Cloudy Star28.1% ◀Sakra'S Quest — 26.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sakra'S Quest26.1%Stanka — 17.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Stanka17.2%Littleransomsfire — 13.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Littleransomsfire13.9%Sweet Saint — 8.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Sweet Saint8.7%Molly'S Potion — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Molly'S Potion6.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cloudy Star28.1%1.6/1
Sakra'S Quest26.1%2.5/1
Stanka17.2%4/1
Littleransomsfire13.9%5/1
Sweet Saint8.7%10/1
Molly'S Potion6.0%8/1
🌧️ Off-track: 132546
🎯 Longshots: 436125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Grandfather Sir (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:8Chief Of Change (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:7Trick Shot Tommy (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:4Victory On Ice (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -41%, 1Uncle Tuff (5/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -49%, 10Bignetti (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:9Play Action (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 6Speight's Promise (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -49%, 3Suspenders (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49%, 2C R George (30/1) 1% · fair 109-1 underlay -73%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Grandfather Sir — 23.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Grandfather Sir23.8% ◀Chief Of Change — 16.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Chief Of Change16.5%Trick Shot Tommy — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Trick Shot Tommy15.1%Victory On Ice — 14.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Victory On Ice14.5%Uncle Tuff — 9.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Uncle Tuff9.3%Bignetti — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Bignetti7.6%Play Action — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Play Action5.8%Speight'S Promise — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Speight'S Promise4.1%Suspenders — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Suspenders2.5%C R George — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1C R George0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Grandfather Sir23.8%3/1
Chief Of Change16.5%6/1
Trick Shot Tommy15.1%4/1
Victory On Ice14.5%3.5/1
Uncle Tuff9.3%5/1
Bignetti7.6%8/1
Play Action5.8%10/1
Speight'S Promise4.1%12/1
Suspenders2.5%20/1
C R George0.9%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGrandfather Sir: model 23.8% vs market 18.6% (+5.1 points)Grandfather Sir+5.1Chief Of Change: model 16.5% vs market 10.7% (+5.8 points)Chief Of Change+5.8Trick Shot Tommy: model 15.1% vs market 14.9% (+0.2 points)Trick Shot Tommy+0.2Victory On Ice: model 14.5% vs market 16.6% (-2.1 points)Victory On Ice-2.1Uncle Tuff: model 9.3% vs market 12.4% (-3.1 points)Uncle Tuff-3.1Bignetti: model 7.6% vs market 8.3% (-0.7 points)Bignetti-0.7Play Action: model 5.8% vs market 6.8% (-1.0 points)Play Action-1.0Speight'S Promise: model 4.1% vs market 5.7% (-1.6 points)Speight'S Promise-1.6Suspenders: model 2.5% vs market 3.6% (-1.1 points)Suspenders-1.1C R George: model 0.9% vs market 2.4% (-1.5 points)C R George-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Grandfather Sir23.8%18.6%+5.1
Chief Of Change16.5%10.7%+5.8
Trick Shot Tommy15.1%14.9%+0.2
Victory On Ice14.5%16.6%-2.1
Uncle Tuff9.3%12.4%-3.1
Bignetti7.6%8.3%-0.7
Play Action5.8%6.8%-1.0
Speight'S Promise4.1%5.7%-1.6
Suspenders2.5%3.6%-1.1
C R George0.9%2.4%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 5874110
🎯 Longshots: 58732101496
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:10Abha (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:1Bourbiana (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38%
Show:7High Street Pizzaz (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:4Cinquante Cinq (3/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -68%, 9Princess Huxley (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 8Speightsy Rival (15/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:3Party To The Max (12/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -58%, 2Royal Scarlett (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%, 6What B (20/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -64%, 5Catnip Hill (30/1) 1% · fair 132-1 underlay -77%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Abha — 27.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Abha27.8% ◀Bourbiana — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Bourbiana23.6%High Street Pizzaz — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1High Street Pizzaz15.1%Cinquante Cinq — 9.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Cinquante Cinq9.7%Princess Huxley — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Princess Huxley7.7%Speightsy Rival — 7.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Speightsy Rival7.1%Party To The Max — 3.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Party To The Max3.4%Royal Scarlett — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Royal Scarlett3.2%What B — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1What B1.8%Catnip Hill — 0.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Catnip Hill0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Abha27.8%2/1
Bourbiana23.6%2/1
High Street Pizzaz15.1%4/1
Cinquante Cinq9.7%3/1
Princess Huxley7.7%6/1
Speightsy Rival7.1%15/1
Party To The Max3.4%12/1
Royal Scarlett3.2%15/1
What B1.8%20/1
Catnip Hill0.8%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAbha: model 27.8% vs market 21.6% (+6.2 points)Abha+6.2Bourbiana: model 23.6% vs market 21.6% (+2.0 points)Bourbiana+2.0High Street Pizzaz: model 15.1% vs market 13.0% (+2.1 points)High Street Pizzaz+2.1Cinquante Cinq: model 9.7% vs market 16.2% (-6.6 points)Cinquante Cinq-6.6Princess Huxley: model 7.7% vs market 9.3% (-1.6 points)Princess Huxley-1.6Speightsy Rival: model 7.1% vs market 4.1% (+3.0 points)Speightsy Rival+3.0Party To The Max: model 3.4% vs market 5.0% (-1.6 points)Party To The Max-1.6Royal Scarlett: model 3.2% vs market 4.1% (-0.9 points)Royal Scarlett-0.9What B: model 1.8% vs market 3.1% (-1.3 points)What B-1.3Catnip Hill: model 0.8% vs market 2.1% (-1.3 points)Catnip Hill-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Abha27.8%21.6%+6.2
Bourbiana23.6%21.6%+2.0
High Street Pizzaz15.1%13.0%+2.1
Cinquante Cinq9.7%16.2%-6.6
Princess Huxley7.7%9.3%-1.6
Speightsy Rival7.1%4.1%+3.0
Party To The Max3.4%5.0%-1.6
Royal Scarlett3.2%4.1%-0.9
What B1.8%3.1%-1.3
Catnip Hill0.8%2.1%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 9511074
🎯 Longshots: 10128367495
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:7Molly's Town (8/5) 39% · fair 3-2
Place:2Hawkeye (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -33%
Show:5Cupid's Runaway (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:3Mondavila (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 1Scotty's On Edge (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:4Oil Man (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -45%, 6Willy's In Charge (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Molly'S Town — 39.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Molly'S Town39.1% ◀Hawkeye — 16.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Hawkeye16.1%Cupid'S Runaway — 13.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Cupid'S Runaway13.9%Mondavila — 10.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Mondavila10.7%Scotty'S On Edge — 7.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Scotty'S On Edge7.5%Oil Man — 6.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Oil Man6.4%Willy'S In Charge — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Willy'S In Charge6.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Molly'S Town39.1%1.6/1
Hawkeye16.1%3.5/1
Cupid'S Runaway13.9%4.5/1
Mondavila10.7%6/1
Scotty'S On Edge7.5%10/1
Oil Man6.4%8/1
Willy'S In Charge6.3%12/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMolly'S Town: model 39.1% vs market 31.8% (+7.4 points)Molly'S Town+7.4Hawkeye: model 16.1% vs market 18.4% (-2.2 points)Hawkeye-2.2Cupid'S Runaway: model 13.9% vs market 15.0% (-1.1 points)Cupid'S Runaway-1.1Mondavila: model 10.7% vs market 11.8% (-1.1 points)Mondavila-1.1Scotty'S On Edge: model 7.5% vs market 7.5% (-0.0 points)Scotty'S On Edge-0.0Oil Man: model 6.4% vs market 9.2% (-2.8 points)Oil Man-2.8Willy'S In Charge: model 6.3% vs market 6.4% (-0.1 points)Willy'S In Charge-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Molly'S Town39.1%31.8%+7.4
Hawkeye16.1%18.4%-2.2
Cupid'S Runaway13.9%15.0%-1.1
Mondavila10.7%11.8%-1.1
Scotty'S On Edge7.5%7.5%-0.0
Oil Man6.4%9.2%-2.8
Willy'S In Charge6.3%6.4%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 215734
🎯 Longshots: 7146253
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:8Koger Lane (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:3I Forgot It (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:6Country Embrace (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:1Tap Bonnet (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -46%, 7Jolly Justice (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 5Pink Picture (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -45%
Rest of field:4Rafaella (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 9Maximum Spirit (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -26%, 2Tiz Wine Time (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Koger Lane — 23.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Koger Lane23.1% ◀I Forgot It — 21.0% win probability, morning line 3/1I Forgot It21.0%Country Embrace — 15.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Country Embrace15.4%Tap Bonnet — 9.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Tap Bonnet9.8%Jolly Justice — 7.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Jolly Justice7.2%Pink Picture — 6.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Pink Picture6.4%Rafaella — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Rafaella6.1%Maximum Spirit — 5.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Maximum Spirit5.8%Tiz Wine Time — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Tiz Wine Time5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Koger Lane23.1%3.5/1
I Forgot It21.0%3/1
Country Embrace15.4%5/1
Tap Bonnet9.8%5/1
Jolly Justice7.2%12/1
Pink Picture6.4%8/1
Rafaella6.1%10/1
Maximum Spirit5.8%12/1
Tiz Wine Time5.3%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKoger Lane: model 23.1% vs market 17.9% (+5.1 points)Koger Lane+5.1I Forgot It: model 21.0% vs market 20.2% (+0.8 points)I Forgot It+0.8Country Embrace: model 15.4% vs market 13.5% (+1.9 points)Country Embrace+1.9Tap Bonnet: model 9.8% vs market 13.5% (-3.7 points)Tap Bonnet-3.7Jolly Justice: model 7.2% vs market 6.2% (+1.0 points)Jolly Justice+1.0Pink Picture: model 6.4% vs market 9.0% (-2.5 points)Pink Picture-2.5Rafaella: model 6.1% vs market 7.3% (-1.3 points)Rafaella-1.3Maximum Spirit: model 5.8% vs market 6.2% (-0.4 points)Maximum Spirit-0.4Tiz Wine Time: model 5.3% vs market 6.2% (-0.9 points)Tiz Wine Time-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Koger Lane23.1%17.9%+5.1
I Forgot It21.0%20.2%+0.8
Country Embrace15.4%13.5%+1.9
Tap Bonnet9.8%13.5%-3.7
Jolly Justice7.2%6.2%+1.0
Pink Picture6.4%9.0%-2.5
Rafaella6.1%7.3%-1.3
Maximum Spirit5.8%6.2%-0.4
Tiz Wine Time5.3%6.2%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 765184
🎯 Longshots: 375689412
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:2Hot Middles (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Place:7Werk It Wendy (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:6Relentless Chick (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +34%
Other contenders:3The Kid Pataky (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -56%, 4Ekati Flatter (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Rest of field:1Bits Of Candy (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 5City Prayers (10/1) 5% · fair 17-1 underlay -42%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hot Middles — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hot Middles20.6% ◀Werk It Wendy — 19.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Werk It Wendy19.3%Relentless Chick — 18.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Relentless Chick18.2%The Kid Pataky — 17.9% win probability, morning line 2/1The Kid Pataky17.9%Ekati Flatter — 10.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Ekati Flatter10.9%Bits Of Candy — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Bits Of Candy7.6%City Prayers — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1City Prayers5.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hot Middles20.6%2.5/1
Werk It Wendy19.3%3.5/1
Relentless Chick18.2%6/1
The Kid Pataky17.9%2/1
Ekati Flatter10.9%8/1
Bits Of Candy7.6%8/1
City Prayers5.5%10/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHot Middles: model 20.6% vs market 22.0% (-1.4 points)Hot Middles-1.4Werk It Wendy: model 19.3% vs market 17.1% (+2.1 points)Werk It Wendy+2.1Relentless Chick: model 18.2% vs market 11.0% (+7.2 points)Relentless Chick+7.2The Kid Pataky: model 17.9% vs market 25.7% (-7.8 points)The Kid Pataky-7.8Ekati Flatter: model 10.9% vs market 8.6% (+2.3 points)Ekati Flatter+2.3Bits Of Candy: model 7.6% vs market 8.6% (-0.9 points)Bits Of Candy-0.9City Prayers: model 5.5% vs market 7.0% (-1.5 points)City Prayers-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hot Middles20.6%22.0%-1.4
Werk It Wendy19.3%17.1%+2.1
Relentless Chick18.2%11.0%+7.2
The Kid Pataky17.9%25.7%-7.8
Ekati Flatter10.9%8.6%+2.3
Bits Of Candy7.6%8.6%-0.9
City Prayers5.5%7.0%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 517264
🎯 Longshots: 2314756
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:11Get Even Kid (2/1) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -48%
Place:8Si O Si (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Show:4Sweet Jannaelise (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:5Goody Two Socks (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 1Inclusive Justice (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -50%, 7Midnight Caper (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 9Skippinjustice (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:3Gonnagetchagetcha (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -35%, 6Prettyontheprarie (20/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -63%, 2Flowered (15/1) 2% · fair 123-2 underlay -76%, 10Tamarac Square (25/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -66%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Get Even Kid — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Get Even Kid20.6% ◀Si O Si — 19.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Si O Si19.6%Sweet Jannaelise — 14.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sweet Jannaelise14.5%Goody Two Socks — 10.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Goody Two Socks10.1%Inclusive Justice — 10.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Inclusive Justice10.0%Midnight Caper — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Midnight Caper9.6%Skippinjustice — 7.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Skippinjustice7.7%Gonnagetchagetcha — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Gonnagetchagetcha3.1%Prettyontheprarie — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Prettyontheprarie1.8%Flowered — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Flowered1.6%Tamarac Square — 1.4% win probability, morning line 25/1Tamarac Square1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Get Even Kid20.6%2/1
Si O Si19.6%3/1
Sweet Jannaelise14.5%3.5/1
Goody Two Socks10.1%10/1
Inclusive Justice10.0%4.5/1
Midnight Caper9.6%6/1
Skippinjustice7.7%8/1
Gonnagetchagetcha3.1%20/1
Prettyontheprarie1.8%20/1
Flowered1.6%15/1
Tamarac Square1.4%25/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGet Even Kid: model 20.6% vs market 21.8% (-1.2 points)Get Even Kid-1.2Si O Si: model 19.6% vs market 16.4% (+3.3 points)Si O Si+3.3Sweet Jannaelise: model 14.5% vs market 14.5% (-0.0 points)Sweet Jannaelise-0.0Goody Two Socks: model 10.1% vs market 5.9% (+4.1 points)Goody Two Socks+4.1Inclusive Justice: model 10.0% vs market 11.9% (-1.9 points)Inclusive Justice-1.9Midnight Caper: model 9.6% vs market 9.3% (+0.3 points)Midnight Caper+0.3Skippinjustice: model 7.7% vs market 7.3% (+0.4 points)Skippinjustice+0.4Gonnagetchagetcha: model 3.1% vs market 3.1% (+0.0 points)Gonnagetchagetcha+0.0Prettyontheprarie: model 1.8% vs market 3.1% (-1.3 points)Prettyontheprarie-1.3Flowered: model 1.6% vs market 4.1% (-2.5 points)Flowered-2.5Tamarac Square: model 1.4% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Tamarac Square-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Get Even Kid20.6%21.8%-1.2
Si O Si19.6%16.4%+3.3
Sweet Jannaelise14.5%14.5%-0.0
Goody Two Socks10.1%5.9%+4.1
Inclusive Justice10.0%11.9%-1.9
Midnight Caper9.6%9.3%+0.3
Skippinjustice7.7%7.3%+0.4
Gonnagetchagetcha3.1%3.1%+0.0
Prettyontheprarie1.8%3.1%-1.3
Flowered1.6%4.1%-2.5
Tamarac Square1.4%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 258361
🎯 Longshots: 5118394127610
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #8, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:3Latigo (2/1)
Place:6Healing Waters (4/1)
Show:4Commander Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:2Bergen (10/1), 5Rigoberto (8/1)
Rest of field:7Dreaming Smart (6/1), 1Maximus C (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136427
🎯 Longshots: 3526471
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Cloudy Star (8/5)
Place:3Sakra's Quest (5/2)
Show:2Stanka (4/1)
Other contenders:5Littleransomsfire (5/1), 1Molly's Potion (8/1)
Rest of field:6Sweet Saint (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314256
🎯 Longshots: 436125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Uncle Tuff (5/1)
Place:2C R George (30/1)
Show:3Suspenders (20/1)
Other contenders:4Victory On Ice (7/2), 5Grandfather Sir (3/1), 6Speight's Promise (12/1)
Rest of field:7Trick Shot Tommy (4/1), 8Chief Of Change (6/1), 9Play Action (10/1), 10Bignetti (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 58732101496
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:7High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Place:1Bourbiana (2/1)
Show:10Abha (2/1)
Other contenders:2Royal Scarlett (15/1), 9Princess Huxley (6/1), 4Cinquante Cinq (3/1)
Rest of field:8Speightsy Rival (15/1), 3Party To The Max (12/1), 6What B (20/1), 5Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9711054
🎯 Longshots: 10128367495
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:7Molly's Town (8/5)
Place:2Hawkeye (7/2)
Show:3Mondavila (6/1)
Other contenders:1Scotty's On Edge (10/1), 5Cupid's Runaway (9/2)
Rest of field:4Oil Man (8/1), 6Willy's In Charge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723154
🎯 Longshots: 7146253
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:8Koger Lane (7/2)
Place:1Tap Bonnet (5/1)
Show:7Jolly Justice (12/1)
Other contenders:6Country Embrace (5/1), 3I Forgot It (3/1), 2Tiz Wine Time (12/1)
Rest of field:5Pink Picture (8/1), 9Maximum Spirit (12/1), 4Rafaella (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 768514
🎯 Longshots: 375689412
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:2Hot Middles (5/2)
Place:3The Kid Pataky (2/1)
Show:7Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Other contenders:4Ekati Flatter (8/1), 6Relentless Chick (6/1)
Rest of field:1Bits Of Candy (8/1), 5City Prayers (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 271465
🎯 Longshots: 2314756
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:11Get Even Kid (2/1)
Place:4Sweet Jannaelise (7/2)
Show:5Goody Two Socks (10/1)
Other contenders:8Si O Si (3/1), 1Inclusive Justice (9/2), 7Midnight Caper (6/1), 9Skippinjustice (8/1)
Rest of field:2Flowered (15/1), 6Prettyontheprarie (20/1), 3Gonnagetchagetcha (20/1), 10Tamarac Square (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 258361
🎯 Longshots: 5118394127610
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #10 ($1 straight; box #1-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #10, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #11 over #8 ($1 straight; box #11-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #11, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
48Speightsy Rival15/1—9.2%+44.3%0.74%$0.74
12Bergen10/1—12.6%+36.6%0.92%$0.92
TOTAL across 2 plays:1.7%$1.65
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:3Latigo (2/1)
Place:4Commander Storm (6/1)
Show:6Healing Waters (4/1)
Other contenders:2Bergen (10/1), 5Rigoberto (8/1)
Rest of field:1Maximus C (5/1), 7Dreaming Smart (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314627
🎯 Longshots: 3526471
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Cloudy Star (8/5)
Place:3Sakra's Quest (5/2)
Show:2Stanka (4/1)
Other contenders:6Sweet Saint (10/1), 5Littleransomsfire (5/1)
Rest of field:1Molly's Potion (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342156
🎯 Longshots: 436125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Uncle Tuff (5/1)
Place:2C R George (30/1)
Show:3Suspenders (20/1)
Other contenders:4Victory On Ice (7/2), 5Grandfather Sir (3/1), 6Speight's Promise (12/1)
Rest of field:7Trick Shot Tommy (4/1), 8Chief Of Change (6/1), 9Play Action (10/1), 10Bignetti (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 58732101496
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:7High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Place:1Bourbiana (2/1)
Show:10Abha (2/1)
Other contenders:9Princess Huxley (6/1), 4Cinquante Cinq (3/1), 2Royal Scarlett (15/1)
Rest of field:8Speightsy Rival (15/1), 3Party To The Max (12/1), 6What B (20/1), 5Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7911045
🎯 Longshots: 10128367495
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:7Molly's Town (8/5)
Place:2Hawkeye (7/2)
Show:3Mondavila (6/1)
Other contenders:5Cupid's Runaway (9/2), 6Willy's In Charge (12/1)
Rest of field:4Oil Man (8/1), 1Scotty's On Edge (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723561
🎯 Longshots: 7146253
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:3I Forgot It (3/1)
Place:8Koger Lane (7/2)
Show:6Country Embrace (5/1)
Other contenders:1Tap Bonnet (5/1), 7Jolly Justice (12/1), 9Maximum Spirit (12/1)
Rest of field:5Pink Picture (8/1), 4Rafaella (10/1), 2Tiz Wine Time (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 867315
🎯 Longshots: 375689412
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:2Hot Middles (5/2)
Place:3The Kid Pataky (2/1)
Show:7Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Other contenders:6Relentless Chick (6/1), 1Bits Of Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:4Ekati Flatter (8/1), 5City Prayers (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 276154
🎯 Longshots: 2314756
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:11Get Even Kid (2/1)
Place:8Si O Si (3/1)
Show:4Sweet Jannaelise (7/2)
Other contenders:1Inclusive Justice (9/2), 7Midnight Caper (6/1), 5Goody Two Socks (10/1), 9Skippinjustice (8/1)
Rest of field:6Prettyontheprarie (20/1), 3Gonnagetchagetcha (20/1), 2Flowered (15/1), 10Tamarac Square (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2851131
🎯 Longshots: 5118394127610
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #8, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:3Latigo (2/1)
Place:2Bergen (10/1)
Show:4Commander Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:6Healing Waters (4/1), 5Rigoberto (8/1)
Rest of field:7Dreaming Smart (6/1), 1Maximus C (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312647
🎯 Longshots: 3526471
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Cloudy Star (8/5)
Place:3Sakra's Quest (5/2)
Show:2Stanka (4/1)
Other contenders:5Littleransomsfire (5/1), 1Molly's Potion (8/1)
Rest of field:6Sweet Saint (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342156
🎯 Longshots: 436125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Uncle Tuff (5/1)
Place:2C R George (30/1)
Show:3Suspenders (20/1)
Other contenders:4Victory On Ice (7/2), 5Grandfather Sir (3/1), 6Speight's Promise (12/1)
Rest of field:7Trick Shot Tommy (4/1), 8Chief Of Change (6/1), 9Play Action (10/1), 10Bignetti (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 58732101496
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1Bourbiana (2/1)
Place:10Abha (2/1)
Show:4Cinquante Cinq (3/1)
Other contenders:7High Street Pizzaz (4/1), 8Speightsy Rival (15/1), 2Royal Scarlett (15/1)
Rest of field:9Princess Huxley (6/1), 3Party To The Max (12/1), 6What B (20/1), 5Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1910475
🎯 Longshots: 10128367495
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:7Molly's Town (8/5)
Place:2Hawkeye (7/2)
Show:3Mondavila (6/1)
Other contenders:5Cupid's Runaway (9/2), 1Scotty's On Edge (10/1)
Rest of field:4Oil Man (8/1), 6Willy's In Charge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723514
🎯 Longshots: 7146253
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $38,000
Win:8Koger Lane (7/2)
Place:3I Forgot It (3/1)
Show:1Tap Bonnet (5/1)
Other contenders:6Country Embrace (5/1), 7Jolly Justice (12/1), 2Tiz Wine Time (12/1)
Rest of field:9Maximum Spirit (12/1), 5Pink Picture (8/1), 4Rafaella (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 867154
🎯 Longshots: 375689412
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $55,000
Win:2Hot Middles (5/2)
Place:3The Kid Pataky (2/1)
Show:7Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Other contenders:6Relentless Chick (6/1), 4Ekati Flatter (8/1)
Rest of field:1Bits Of Candy (8/1), 5City Prayers (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 276154
🎯 Longshots: 2314756
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $43,000
Win:4Sweet Jannaelise (7/2)
Place:11Get Even Kid (2/1)
Show:8Si O Si (3/1)
Other contenders:1Inclusive Justice (9/2), 5Goody Two Socks (10/1), 7Midnight Caper (6/1), 9Skippinjustice (8/1)
Rest of field:3Gonnagetchagetcha (20/1), 6Prettyontheprarie (20/1), 2Flowered (15/1), 10Tamarac Square (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2853111
🎯 Longshots: 5118394127610
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #11, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#6,#4 (61%) / R2: #4,#3,#2 (71%) / R3: #5,#8,#7 (55%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#3,#2 (71%) / R3: #5,#8,#7 (55%) / R4: #10,#1,#7 (66%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#8,#7 (55%) / R4: #10,#1,#7 (66%) / R5: #7,#2,#5 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #10,#1,#7 (66%) / R5: #7,#2,#5 (69%) / R6: #8,#3,#6 (59%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#6,#4 (61%) / R2: #4,#3,#2 (71%) / R3: #5,#8,#7 (55%) / R4: #10,#1,#7 (66%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #4,#3,#2 (71%) / R3: #5,#8,#7 (55%) / R4: #10,#1,#7 (66%) / R5: #7,#2,#5 (69%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ABHABERGENBIGNETTIBITS OF CANDYBOURBIANA
CATNIP HILLCHIEF OF CHANGECINQUANTE CINQCITY PRAYERSCLOUDY STAR
COUNTRY EMBRACECUPID'S RUNAWAYDREAMING SMARTEKATI FLATTEREYE FOR THE WIN
GET EVEN KIDGONNAGETCHAGETCHAGOODY TWO SOCKSGRANDFATHER SIRHAWKEYE
HIGH STREET PIZZAZHOT MIDDLESI FORGOT ITINCLUSIVE JUSTICEJESS OFF THE WAGON
KOGER LANELATIGOLETS KICK ITLITTLERANSOMSFIREMAXIMUM SPIRIT
MIDNIGHT CAPERMO ZOOMO SMOLLY'S POTIONMOLLY'S TOWNMONDAVILA
OIL MANPAINT ME OKPARTY TO THE MAXPINK PICTUREPLAY ACTION
PRINCESS HUXLEYR DIFFERENT OPTIONRAFAELLARELENTLESS CHICKRIGOBERTO
RUBYS FIRST KISSSAKRA'S QUESTSCOTTY'S ON EDGESI O SISKIPPINJUSTICE
SPEIGHTSY RIVALSTANKASUSPENDERSSWEET JANNAELISESWEET SAINT
TAP BONNETTHE KID PATAKYTIZ WINE TIMETRICK SHOT TOMMYUNCLE TUFF
WERK IT WENDYWHAT BWILLY'S IN CHARGE

 


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