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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Delaware Park, September 23, 2026

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How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:36 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1841250%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)860275%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)851162%
Experimental Weight Set 2841150%
Experimental Weight Set 3841250%

Kelly Edge Plays: 2 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Delaware Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 114 graded races at Delaware Park, 2026-08-15 to 2026-09-19.

0%13%25%38%50%Our top pick: 40.4% from 114 racesOur top pick40.4%Morning-line favourite: 35.1% from 114 racesMorning-line favourite35.1%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick40.4%114
Morning-line favourite35.1%114
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Fratellone (8/5)
Place:6Lucky Larry (7/2)
Show:8Drop Me A Dime (4/1)
Other contenders:5Booted Up (10/1), 1Moral Power (8/1), 2Soo Handsome (8/1)
Rest of field:3Daytona Moonshine (10/1), 7Zaino (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 275368
🎯 Longshots: 43512678
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Kwan (2/1)
Place:1Hey Sara Yougotit (3/1)
Show:2Misseleanor (4/1)
Other contenders:3Happy Encounter (8/1), 4Nance's Notion (8/1)
Rest of field:7Smokie Mist (8/1), 5Its My Decision (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612347
🎯 Longshots: 6135472
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Collection Day (5/2)
Place:1Good As He Gets (7/2)
Show:8Kerness (6/1)
Other contenders:7Final Drama (9/2), 2Uninvited Guest (8/1), 6Morning Thoughts (10/1)
Rest of field:3Waldrip (15/1), 4Midnight Onyx (12/1), 9Bold Ambition (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 358246
🎯 Longshots: 563241978
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1She's A Canny Lass (7/2)
Place:10Mom Esterina (5/2)
Show:6Kazillion (8/1)
Other contenders:5G G's Treasure (8/1), 9Mi Amol (8/1), 7Love In The Hills (8/1), 8Julies Mandolin (20/1)
Rest of field:2Code Name Maisie (20/1), 3Lend Creedence (20/1), 11Lorelai (15/1), 4Hart Of Coupella (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 321598
🎯 Longshots: 1068517311249
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Megan's Honor (2/1)
Place:1Nano Man (4/1)
Show:2Federal Exchange (3/1)
Other contenders:3Rob The Rich (8/1), 8Aaraj (12/1), 6Harbor Of Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:4Trophy Room (15/1), 7Mr. Squeaky Wheels (12/1), 9City Panda (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 128564
🎯 Longshots: 532467891
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5James (8/5)
Place:4When We Do We Do (2/1)
Show:6Wholelotoftrouble (7/2)
Other contenders:3Yauprissy (6/1), 1Hands Up Style (8/1)
Rest of field:2Oath And Honour (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543126
🎯 Longshots: 543261
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $26,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Delray (9/5)
Place:1Bourbon N Lace (5/2)
Show:2Ginger Girl (7/2)
Other contenders:6Dynamic Actress (8/1), 5Luminous Secret (6/1)
Rest of field:4Miss Interpatation (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514632
🎯 Longshots: 314625
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Three Polks (2/1)
Place:6Combat Hoofs (3/1)
Show:3Miss Neo (5/1)
Other contenders:4Cloud In The Wind (8/1), 1Magnolia Wind (10/1)
Rest of field:5Infastuation (6/1), 2Mabee Luckynwild (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372451
🎯 Longshots: 7612435
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:4Fratellone (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -37%
Place:8Drop Me A Dime (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Lucky Larry (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:1Moral Power (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +26%, 5Booted Up (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 3Daytona Moonshine (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:7Zaino (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 2Soo Handsome (8/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -74%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fratellone — 28.4% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Fratellone28.4% ◀Drop Me A Dime — 19.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Drop Me A Dime19.7%Lucky Larry — 15.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lucky Larry15.3%Moral Power — 13.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Moral Power13.6%Booted Up — 7.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Booted Up7.8%Daytona Moonshine — 7.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Daytona Moonshine7.2%Zaino — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Zaino4.9%Soo Handsome — 3.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Soo Handsome3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fratellone28.4%1.6/1
Drop Me A Dime19.7%4/1
Lucky Larry15.3%3.5/1
Moral Power13.6%8/1
Booted Up7.8%10/1
Daytona Moonshine7.2%10/1
Zaino4.9%15/1
Soo Handsome3.2%8/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFratellone: model 28.4% vs market 30.2% (-1.8 points)Fratellone-1.8Drop Me A Dime: model 19.7% vs market 15.7% (+4.0 points)Drop Me A Dime+4.0Lucky Larry: model 15.3% vs market 17.5% (-2.2 points)Lucky Larry-2.2Moral Power: model 13.6% vs market 8.7% (+4.9 points)Moral Power+4.9Booted Up: model 7.8% vs market 7.1% (+0.6 points)Booted Up+0.6Daytona Moonshine: model 7.2% vs market 7.1% (+0.1 points)Daytona Moonshine+0.1Zaino: model 4.9% vs market 4.9% (-0.1 points)Zaino-0.1Soo Handsome: model 3.2% vs market 8.7% (-5.5 points)Soo Handsome-5.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fratellone28.4%30.2%-1.8
Drop Me A Dime19.7%15.7%+4.0
Lucky Larry15.3%17.5%-2.2
Moral Power13.6%8.7%+4.9
Booted Up7.8%7.1%+0.6
Daytona Moonshine7.2%7.1%+0.1
Zaino4.9%4.9%-0.1
Soo Handsome3.2%8.7%-5.5
🌧️ Off-track: 725361
🎯 Longshots: 43512678
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:6Kwan (2/1) 39% · fair 3-2 overlay +30%
Place:1Hey Sara Yougotit (3/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -56%
Show:3Happy Encounter (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:2Misseleanor (4/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -54%, 7Smokie Mist (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:4Nance's Notion (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 5Its My Decision (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Kwan — 39.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Kwan39.4% ◀Hey Sara Yougotit — 12.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Hey Sara Yougotit12.7%Happy Encounter — 11.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Happy Encounter11.3%Misseleanor — 10.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Misseleanor10.3%Smokie Mist — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Smokie Mist10.1%Nance'S Notion — 9.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Nance'S Notion9.4%Its My Decision — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Its My Decision6.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Kwan39.4%2/1
Hey Sara Yougotit12.7%3/1
Happy Encounter11.3%8/1
Misseleanor10.3%4/1
Smokie Mist10.1%8/1
Nance'S Notion9.4%8/1
Its My Decision6.8%10/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKwan: model 39.4% vs market 27.6% (+11.8 points)Kwan+11.8Hey Sara Yougotit: model 12.7% vs market 20.7% (-8.0 points)Hey Sara Yougotit-8.0Happy Encounter: model 11.3% vs market 9.2% (+2.1 points)Happy Encounter+2.1Misseleanor: model 10.3% vs market 16.6% (-6.3 points)Misseleanor-6.3Smokie Mist: model 10.1% vs market 9.2% (+0.9 points)Smokie Mist+0.9Nance'S Notion: model 9.4% vs market 9.2% (+0.2 points)Nance'S Notion+0.2Its My Decision: model 6.8% vs market 7.5% (-0.7 points)Its My Decision-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Kwan39.4%27.6%+11.8
Hey Sara Yougotit12.7%20.7%-8.0
Happy Encounter11.3%9.2%+2.1
Misseleanor10.3%16.6%-6.3
Smokie Mist10.1%9.2%+0.9
Nance'S Notion9.4%9.2%+0.2
Its My Decision6.8%7.5%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 613274
🎯 Longshots: 6135472
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:5Collection Day (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:1Good As He Gets (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%
Show:8Kerness (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Uninvited Guest (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +27%, 7Final Drama (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -56%, 6Morning Thoughts (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:9Bold Ambition (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -31%, 3Waldrip (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 4Midnight Onyx (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -47%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Collection Day — 26.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Collection Day26.1% ◀Good As He Gets — 14.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Good As He Gets14.9%Kerness — 14.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Kerness14.1%Uninvited Guest — 13.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Uninvited Guest13.7%Final Drama — 8.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Final Drama8.9%Morning Thoughts — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Morning Thoughts7.4%Bold Ambition — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Bold Ambition5.4%Waldrip — 5.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Waldrip5.2%Midnight Onyx — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Midnight Onyx4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Collection Day26.1%2.5/1
Good As He Gets14.9%3.5/1
Kerness14.1%6/1
Uninvited Guest13.7%8/1
Final Drama8.9%4.5/1
Morning Thoughts7.4%10/1
Bold Ambition5.4%12/1
Waldrip5.2%15/1
Midnight Onyx4.2%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCollection Day: model 26.1% vs market 22.8% (+3.3 points)Collection Day+3.3Good As He Gets: model 14.9% vs market 17.8% (-2.8 points)Good As He Gets-2.8Kerness: model 14.1% vs market 11.4% (+2.7 points)Kerness+2.7Uninvited Guest: model 13.7% vs market 8.9% (+4.8 points)Uninvited Guest+4.8Final Drama: model 8.9% vs market 14.5% (-5.7 points)Final Drama-5.7Morning Thoughts: model 7.4% vs market 7.3% (+0.1 points)Morning Thoughts+0.1Bold Ambition: model 5.4% vs market 6.1% (-0.7 points)Bold Ambition-0.7Waldrip: model 5.2% vs market 5.0% (+0.2 points)Waldrip+0.2Midnight Onyx: model 4.2% vs market 6.1% (-1.9 points)Midnight Onyx-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Collection Day26.1%22.8%+3.3
Good As He Gets14.9%17.8%-2.8
Kerness14.1%11.4%+2.7
Uninvited Guest13.7%8.9%+4.8
Final Drama8.9%14.5%-5.7
Morning Thoughts7.4%7.3%+0.1
Bold Ambition5.4%6.1%-0.7
Waldrip5.2%5.0%+0.2
Midnight Onyx4.2%6.1%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 382456
🎯 Longshots: 563241978
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:10Mom Esterina (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:1She's A Canny Lass (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:7Love In The Hills (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:6Kazillion (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 9Mi Amol (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 5G G's Treasure (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%, 2Code Name Maisie (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1
Rest of field:8Julies Mandolin (20/1) 4% · fair 26-1, 11Lorelai (15/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -42%, 3Lend Creedence (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -36%, 4Hart Of Coupella (20/1) 1% · fair 72-1 underlay -72%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mom Esterina — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Mom Esterina23.6% ◀She'S A Canny Lass — 21.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1She'S A Canny Lass21.9%Love In The Hills — 11.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Love In The Hills11.7%Kazillion — 11.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Kazillion11.3%Mi Amol — 9.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Mi Amol9.0%G G'S Treasure — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1G G'S Treasure6.8%Code Name Maisie — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Code Name Maisie3.8%Julies Mandolin — 3.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Julies Mandolin3.7%Lorelai — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Lorelai3.7%Lend Creedence — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Lend Creedence3.1%Hart Of Coupella — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Hart Of Coupella1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mom Esterina23.6%2.5/1
She'S A Canny Lass21.9%3.5/1
Love In The Hills11.7%8/1
Kazillion11.3%8/1
Mi Amol9.0%8/1
G G'S Treasure6.8%8/1
Code Name Maisie3.8%20/1
Julies Mandolin3.7%20/1
Lorelai3.7%15/1
Lend Creedence3.1%20/1
Hart Of Coupella1.4%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 321958
🎯 Longshots: 1068517311249
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Megan's Honor (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:2Federal Exchange (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -26%
Show:1Nano Man (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25%
Other contenders:3Rob The Rich (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 6Harbor Of Gold (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 7Mr. Squeaky Wheels (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:8Aaraj (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 4Trophy Room (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -44%, 9City Panda (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Megan'S Honor — 27.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Megan'S Honor27.4% ◀Federal Exchange — 19.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Federal Exchange19.8%Nano Man — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Nano Man15.7%Rob The Rich — 10.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Rob The Rich10.8%Harbor Of Gold — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Harbor Of Gold7.0%Mr. Squeaky Wheels — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Mr. Squeaky Wheels6.2%Aaraj — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Aaraj6.2%Trophy Room — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Trophy Room3.6%City Panda — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1City Panda3.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Megan'S Honor27.4%2/1
Federal Exchange19.8%3/1
Nano Man15.7%4/1
Rob The Rich10.8%8/1
Harbor Of Gold7.0%10/1
Mr. Squeaky Wheels6.2%12/1
Aaraj6.2%12/1
Trophy Room3.6%15/1
City Panda3.4%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 218643
🎯 Longshots: 532467891
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4When We Do We Do (2/1) 38% · fair 3-2
Place:5James (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -43%
Show:6Wholelotoftrouble (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -48%
Other contenders:3Yauprissy (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Hands Up Style (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -45%
Rest of field:2Oath And Honour (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

When We Do We Do — 38.0% win probability, morning line 2/1When We Do We Do38.0% ◀James — 26.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1James26.1%Wholelotoftrouble — 13.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Wholelotoftrouble13.0%Yauprissy — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Yauprissy11.9%Hands Up Style — 6.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Hands Up Style6.5%Oath And Honour — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Oath And Honour4.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
When We Do We Do38.0%2/1
James26.1%1.6/1
Wholelotoftrouble13.0%3.5/1
Yauprissy11.9%6/1
Hands Up Style6.5%8/1
Oath And Honour4.5%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWhen We Do We Do: model 38.0% vs market 26.2% (+11.8 points)When We Do We Do+11.8James: model 26.1% vs market 30.3% (-4.1 points)James-4.1Wholelotoftrouble: model 13.0% vs market 17.5% (-4.5 points)Wholelotoftrouble-4.5Yauprissy: model 11.9% vs market 11.2% (+0.7 points)Yauprissy+0.7Hands Up Style: model 6.5% vs market 8.7% (-2.3 points)Hands Up Style-2.3Oath And Honour: model 4.5% vs market 6.1% (-1.6 points)Oath And Honour-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
When We Do We Do38.0%26.2%+11.8
James26.1%30.3%-4.1
Wholelotoftrouble13.0%17.5%-4.5
Yauprissy11.9%11.2%+0.7
Hands Up Style6.5%8.7%-2.3
Oath And Honour4.5%6.1%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 453126
🎯 Longshots: 543261
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $26,000
Win:3Delray (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -43%
Place:1Bourbon N Lace (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -41%
Show:2Ginger Girl (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:5Luminous Secret (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2, 6Dynamic Actress (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +26%
Rest of field:4Miss Interpatation (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Delray — 24.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Delray24.1% ◀Bourbon N Lace — 19.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bourbon N Lace19.0%Ginger Girl — 18.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Ginger Girl18.8%Luminous Secret — 15.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Luminous Secret15.7%Dynamic Actress — 13.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Dynamic Actress13.6%Miss Interpatation — 8.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Miss Interpatation8.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Delray24.1%1.8/1
Bourbon N Lace19.0%2.5/1
Ginger Girl18.8%3.5/1
Luminous Secret15.7%6/1
Dynamic Actress13.6%8/1
Miss Interpatation8.8%8/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDelray: model 24.1% vs market 29.0% (-4.9 points)Delray-4.9Bourbon N Lace: model 19.0% vs market 23.2% (-4.2 points)Bourbon N Lace-4.2Ginger Girl: model 18.8% vs market 18.1% (+0.8 points)Ginger Girl+0.8Luminous Secret: model 15.7% vs market 11.6% (+4.1 points)Luminous Secret+4.1Dynamic Actress: model 13.6% vs market 9.0% (+4.6 points)Dynamic Actress+4.6Miss Interpatation: model 8.8% vs market 9.0% (-0.3 points)Miss Interpatation-0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Delray24.1%29.0%-4.9
Bourbon N Lace19.0%23.2%-4.2
Ginger Girl18.8%18.1%+0.8
Luminous Secret15.7%11.6%+4.1
Dynamic Actress13.6%9.0%+4.6
Miss Interpatation8.8%9.0%-0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 514623
🎯 Longshots: 314625
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:7Three Polks (2/1) 50% · fair 5-5 overlay +104%
Place:6Combat Hoofs (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -29%
Show:3Miss Neo (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:4Cloud In The Wind (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%, 5Infastuation (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%
Rest of field:1Magnolia Wind (10/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -56%, 2Mabee Luckynwild (8/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -65%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Three Polks — 50.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Three Polks50.5% ◀Combat Hoofs — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Combat Hoofs19.0%Miss Neo — 10.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Miss Neo10.4%Cloud In The Wind — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Cloud In The Wind6.8%Infastuation — 4.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Infastuation4.9%Magnolia Wind — 4.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Magnolia Wind4.2%Mabee Luckynwild — 4.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Mabee Luckynwild4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Three Polks50.5%2/1
Combat Hoofs19.0%3/1
Miss Neo10.4%5/1
Cloud In The Wind6.8%8/1
Infastuation4.9%6/1
Magnolia Wind4.2%10/1
Mabee Luckynwild4.2%8/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherThree Polks: model 50.5% vs market 27.6% (+22.8 points)Three Polks+22.8Combat Hoofs: model 19.0% vs market 20.7% (-1.7 points)Combat Hoofs-1.7Miss Neo: model 10.4% vs market 13.8% (-3.5 points)Miss Neo-3.5Cloud In The Wind: model 6.8% vs market 9.2% (-2.4 points)Cloud In The Wind-2.4Infastuation: model 4.9% vs market 11.8% (-6.9 points)Infastuation-6.9Magnolia Wind: model 4.2% vs market 7.5% (-3.3 points)Magnolia Wind-3.3Mabee Luckynwild: model 4.2% vs market 9.2% (-5.0 points)Mabee Luckynwild-5.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Three Polks50.5%27.6%+22.8
Combat Hoofs19.0%20.7%-1.7
Miss Neo10.4%13.8%-3.5
Cloud In The Wind6.8%9.2%-2.4
Infastuation4.9%11.8%-6.9
Magnolia Wind4.2%7.5%-3.3
Mabee Luckynwild4.2%9.2%-5.0
🌧️ Off-track: 237451
🎯 Longshots: 7612435
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:4Fratellone (8/5)
Place:8Drop Me A Dime (4/1)
Show:6Lucky Larry (7/2)
Other contenders:5Booted Up (10/1), 3Daytona Moonshine (10/1), 7Zaino (15/1)
Rest of field:1Moral Power (8/1), 2Soo Handsome (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 572364
🎯 Longshots: 43512678
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:1Hey Sara Yougotit (3/1)
Place:6Kwan (2/1)
Show:3Happy Encounter (8/1)
Other contenders:7Smokie Mist (8/1), 5Its My Decision (10/1)
Rest of field:2Misseleanor (4/1), 4Nance's Notion (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163752
🎯 Longshots: 6135472
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:5Collection Day (5/2)
Place:1Good As He Gets (7/2)
Show:8Kerness (6/1)
Other contenders:7Final Drama (9/2), 4Midnight Onyx (12/1), 6Morning Thoughts (10/1)
Rest of field:9Bold Ambition (12/1), 3Waldrip (15/1), 2Uninvited Guest (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583416
🎯 Longshots: 563241978
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:10Mom Esterina (5/2)
Place:1She's A Canny Lass (7/2)
Show:5G G's Treasure (8/1)
Other contenders:6Kazillion (8/1), 8Julies Mandolin (20/1), 3Lend Creedence (20/1), 11Lorelai (15/1)
Rest of field:2Code Name Maisie (20/1), 7Love In The Hills (8/1), 9Mi Amol (8/1), 4Hart Of Coupella (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3101528
🎯 Longshots: 1068517311249
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Megan's Honor (2/1)
Place:2Federal Exchange (3/1)
Show:1Nano Man (4/1)
Other contenders:7Mr. Squeaky Wheels (12/1), 3Rob The Rich (8/1), 6Harbor Of Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:8Aaraj (12/1), 9City Panda (15/1), 4Trophy Room (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 251863
🎯 Longshots: 532467891
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Hands Up Style (8/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Oath And Honour (12/1)
Show:3Yauprissy (6/1)
Other contenders:4When We Do We Do (2/1), 5James (8/5)
Rest of field:6Wholelotoftrouble (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 543261
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $26,000
Win:3Delray (9/5)
Place:1Bourbon N Lace (5/2)
Show:2Ginger Girl (7/2)
Other contenders:5Luminous Secret (6/1), 6Dynamic Actress (8/1)
Rest of field:4Miss Interpatation (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514362
🎯 Longshots: 314625
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:7Three Polks (2/1)
Place:6Combat Hoofs (3/1)
Show:1Magnolia Wind (10/1)
Other contenders:4Cloud In The Wind (8/1), 3Miss Neo (5/1)
Rest of field:5Infastuation (6/1), 2Mabee Luckynwild (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734215
🎯 Longshots: 7612435
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #10 over #1 ($1 straight; box #10-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #1, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #6 ($1 straight; box #7-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #6, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.36 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
48Julies Mandolin ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—7.2%+47.2%0.59%$0.59
54Trophy Room15/1—7.9%+24.6%0.41%$0.41
42Code Name Maisie ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—5.7%+18.8%0.24%$0.24
33Waldrip15/1—7.1%+12.9%0.22%$0.22
TOTAL across 4 plays:1.5%$1.45
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:5Booted Up (10/1)
Place:4Fratellone (8/5)
Show:6Lucky Larry (7/2)
Other contenders:8Drop Me A Dime (4/1), 7Zaino (15/1), 3Daytona Moonshine (10/1)
Rest of field:1Moral Power (8/1), 2Soo Handsome (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 547623
🎯 Longshots: 43512678
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:6Kwan (2/1)
Place:1Hey Sara Yougotit (3/1)
Show:2Misseleanor (4/1)
Other contenders:3Happy Encounter (8/1), 4Nance's Notion (8/1)
Rest of field:7Smokie Mist (8/1), 5Its My Decision (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612347
🎯 Longshots: 6135472
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:5Collection Day (5/2)
Place:1Good As He Gets (7/2)
Show:8Kerness (6/1)
Other contenders:7Final Drama (9/2), 3Waldrip (15/1), 6Morning Thoughts (10/1)
Rest of field:2Uninvited Guest (8/1), 9Bold Ambition (12/1), 4Midnight Onyx (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583172
🎯 Longshots: 563241978
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:10Mom Esterina (5/2)
Place:1She's A Canny Lass (7/2)
Show:6Kazillion (8/1)
Other contenders:5G G's Treasure (8/1), 7Love In The Hills (8/1), 9Mi Amol (8/1), 2Code Name Maisie (20/1)
Rest of field:8Julies Mandolin (20/1), 11Lorelai (15/1), 3Lend Creedence (20/1), 4Hart Of Coupella (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1103562
🎯 Longshots: 1068517311249
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Megan's Honor (2/1)
Place:1Nano Man (4/1)
Show:2Federal Exchange (3/1)
Other contenders:4Trophy Room (15/1), 8Aaraj (12/1), 7Mr. Squeaky Wheels (12/1)
Rest of field:6Harbor Of Gold (10/1), 3Rob The Rich (8/1), 9City Panda (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512846
🎯 Longshots: 532467891
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Hands Up Style (8/1)
Place:2Oath And Honour (12/1)
Show:3Yauprissy (6/1)
Other contenders:4When We Do We Do (2/1), 5James (8/5)
Rest of field:6Wholelotoftrouble (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 543261
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $26,000
Win:3Delray (9/5)
Place:1Bourbon N Lace (5/2)
Show:5Luminous Secret (6/1)
Other contenders:2Ginger Girl (7/2), 4Miss Interpatation (8/1)
Rest of field:6Dynamic Actress (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 351462
🎯 Longshots: 314625
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:7Three Polks (2/1)
Place:4Cloud In The Wind (8/1)
Show:1Magnolia Wind (10/1)
Other contenders:6Combat Hoofs (3/1), 3Miss Neo (5/1)
Rest of field:2Mabee Luckynwild (8/1), 5Infastuation (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 741325
🎯 Longshots: 7612435
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:4Fratellone (8/5)
Place:6Lucky Larry (7/2)
Show:8Drop Me A Dime (4/1)
Other contenders:5Booted Up (10/1), 3Daytona Moonshine (10/1), 7Zaino (15/1)
Rest of field:2Soo Handsome (8/1), 1Moral Power (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456723
🎯 Longshots: 43512678
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:1Hey Sara Yougotit (3/1)
Place:6Kwan (2/1)
Show:3Happy Encounter (8/1)
Other contenders:2Misseleanor (4/1), 5Its My Decision (10/1)
Rest of field:7Smokie Mist (8/1), 4Nance's Notion (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163257
🎯 Longshots: 6135472
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:5Collection Day (5/2)
Place:1Good As He Gets (7/2)
Show:8Kerness (6/1)
Other contenders:7Final Drama (9/2), 3Waldrip (15/1), 6Morning Thoughts (10/1)
Rest of field:9Bold Ambition (12/1), 2Uninvited Guest (8/1), 4Midnight Onyx (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583176
🎯 Longshots: 563241978
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:10Mom Esterina (5/2)
Place:1She's A Canny Lass (7/2)
Show:6Kazillion (8/1)
Other contenders:5G G's Treasure (8/1), 7Love In The Hills (8/1), 2Code Name Maisie (20/1), 11Lorelai (15/1)
Rest of field:9Mi Amol (8/1), 3Lend Creedence (20/1), 8Julies Mandolin (20/1), 4Hart Of Coupella (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3110526
🎯 Longshots: 1068517311249
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:5Megan's Honor (2/1)
Place:1Nano Man (4/1)
Show:2Federal Exchange (3/1)
Other contenders:4Trophy Room (15/1), 3Rob The Rich (8/1), 7Mr. Squeaky Wheels (12/1)
Rest of field:8Aaraj (12/1), 9City Panda (15/1), 6Harbor Of Gold (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152843
🎯 Longshots: 532467891
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Hands Up Style (8/1)
Place:2Oath And Honour (12/1)
Show:3Yauprissy (6/1)
Other contenders:4When We Do We Do (2/1), 5James (8/5)
Rest of field:6Wholelotoftrouble (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 123456
🎯 Longshots: 543261
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $26,000
Win:3Delray (9/5)
Place:1Bourbon N Lace (5/2)
Show:2Ginger Girl (7/2)
Other contenders:5Luminous Secret (6/1), 6Dynamic Actress (8/1)
Rest of field:4Miss Interpatation (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153264
🎯 Longshots: 314625
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:7Three Polks (2/1)
Place:6Combat Hoofs (3/1)
Show:1Magnolia Wind (10/1)
Other contenders:3Miss Neo (5/1), 4Cloud In The Wind (8/1)
Rest of field:5Infastuation (6/1), 2Mabee Luckynwild (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731452
🎯 Longshots: 7612435
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#8,#6 (63%) / R2: #6,#1,#3 (63%) / R3: #5,#1,#8 (55%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #10,#1,#7 (57%) / R5: #5,#2,#1 (63%) / R6: #4,#5 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #5,#2,#1 (63%) / R6: #4,#5 (64%) / R7: #3,#1,#2 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #4,#5 (64%) / R7: #3,#1,#2 (62%) / R8: #7,#6 (70%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #10,#1,#7 (57%) / R5: #5,#2,#1 (63%) / R6: #4,#5 (64%) / R7: #3,#1,#2 (62%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #5,#2,#1 (63%) / R6: #4,#5 (64%) / R7: #3,#1,#2 (62%) / R8: #7,#6 (70%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AARAJBOLD AMBITIONBOOTED UPBOURBON N LACECITY PANDA
CODE NAME MAISIECOLLECTION DAYCOMBAT HOOFSDAYTONA MOONSHINEDELRAY
DYNAMIC ACTRESSFEDERAL EXCHANGEFINAL DRAMAFRATELLONEG G'S TREASURE
GOOD AS HE GETSHANDS UP STYLEHAPPY ENCOUNTERHARBOR OF GOLDHART OF COUPELLA
INFASTUATIONITS MY DECISIONJAMESJULIES MANDOLINKAZILLION
KWANLEND CREEDENCELORELAILOVE IN THE HILLSLUCKY LARRY
MABEE LUCKYNWILDMAGNOLIA WINDMEGAN'S HONORMI AMOLMIDNIGHT ONYX
MISS NEOMISSELEANORMOM ESTERINAMORAL POWERMORNING THOUGHTS
NANCE'S NOTIONNANO MANOATH AND HONOURROB THE RICHSHE'S A CANNY LASS
SOO HANDSOMETHREE POLKSTROPHY ROOMUNINVITED GUESTWALDRIP
WHOLELOTOFTROUBLEYAUPRISSYZAINO

 


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