Posted inAnalysis Reports

Finger Lakes Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 28, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%15%29%44%59%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.3%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.7%What we said — 38.2%What we saidWhat happened — 2.7%What happened — 7.3%What happened — 13.8%What happened — 21.8%What happened — 30.3%What happened — 47.5%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.3%2.7%
7%7.4%7.3%
13%12.5%13.8%
18%18.0%21.8%
26%25.7%30.3%
38%38.2%47.5%

Race Day Overview — Finger Lakes Racetrack, September 28, 2026

Finger Lakes Racetrack in Canandaigua, New York hosts an eight-race Monday card with first post at 12:55 PM Eastern. The card is headlined by a pair of allowance events carrying the two largest purses on the program and features a full slate of claiming and maiden action across distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles on the main dirt track. The condition book leans heavily toward horses who have been active at the Finger Lakes meet, and sharp handicappers will want to pay close attention to class movement, pace scenarios, and the well-represented barn of M. Anthony Ferraro, who has horses entered in five of the eight races today.

The overall quality of the card is consistent with late-September racing at Finger Lakes, a track that traditionally draws horses from the New York-Pennsylvania circuit who are making final starts before the end of the regional meet. Connections will be trying to find spots before the Finger Lakes season winds down, which can produce both sharp efforts from well-placed horses and flat performances from animals that have seen too much racing. Workouts leading up to today's card and recent form will carry extra weight in the analysis.

Notable barns to watch include M. Anthony Ferraro, who sends out multiple entries across the card and has consistently ranked among the top trainers at this meet. Chris Englehart brings Frostelle (5) into Race 1 at a short price, and Paul Barrow has horses in two different races. The jockey colony at Finger Lakes in late September remains competitive, with Kevin Navarro, L.E. Perez, Joel Cruz, and Keiber J. Coa among the leading riders appearing frequently on today's card.

Weather and Track Conditions

Finger Lakes sits in the Finger Lakes wine country of western New York, and late September typically brings variable conditions as the region transitions into autumn. Forecasts for the Canandaigua area on September 28 point to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-50s to low 60s Fahrenheit at post time, with a modest northwest wind of 10 to 15 miles per hour. Overnight and early-morning rainfall earlier in the week has largely cleared, and the track surface is expected to be rated fast or, at worst, good heading into the afternoon card.

A fast track at Finger Lakes historically favors horses with early speed and those who can secure a ground-saving trip along the rail. If the surface firmed up overnight following earlier precipitation, there is potential for sharp early fractions in the sprint races, which may set up pace scenarios that benefit closers more than the morning line suggests. However, Finger Lakes tends to play as a speed-favoring track under normal conditions, and that conventional bias should be respected unless the track superintendent adjusts the surface or early race results indicate otherwise.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Finger Lakes is a one-mile oval with a conventional configuration that, under fast conditions, generally rewards early speed. The track has shown a persistent rail bias in sprint races throughout much of the 2026 meet, meaning horses who break cleanly from inside posts and secure the lead or a stalking position in the first flight tend to outperform their speed figures. This is especially relevant in the 1,320-foot (six-furlong) sprints on the card today, where posts 1 through 3 have produced a disproportionate number of winners at the meet.

In the route races — particularly the 1,760-foot and 1,830-foot events — post position becomes somewhat less critical because horses have a longer run to the first turn to find position. However, inside posts still carry a tactical advantage at Finger Lakes routes because the first turn arrives relatively quickly, and horses caught three or four wide early can use significant energy before the race is a quarter of a mile old.

Outside posts (5 through 9) in today's larger fields can be overcome by horses with natural early speed who can angle in quickly, but horses who are classified as closers drawn wide will need a contested early pace to have any chance. In the maiden and claiming events with larger fields, this creates genuine wagering value on inside closers who might otherwise be overlooked.

The track surface in the rail path is worth watching carefully in the early races. If the inside is coming up dead, jockeys will visibly be angling off the rail, and that adjustment should shift attention toward stalkers and closers with the ability to make their runs in the middle of the track.

RACE 1 — Post (12:55)/11:55/10:55/9:55 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 26500n2l | BUN | Purse $26,500

This is the best race on the card by purse and condition. Six horses go six furlongs in an allowance event for non-winners of two lifetime, and the field features genuine class with two co-favorites at 2-1. The Ferraro barn is double-represented with White Sport Coat (4) and Speedstre (3), and Chris Englehart's Frostelle (5) has earned significant support at matching morning line odds. This sets up as a genuine three-way battle between horses with legitimate credentials at this level.

Pace Analysis

The early pace scenario is critical here. Speedstre (3) has shown early speed in prior starts and will likely push to the front from the inside draw, with Hamilton's Reason (1) also a potential early factor from the rail. White Sport Coat (4) has demonstrated the ability to sit just off the pace and make a sustained run through the stretch. Frostelle (5) appears to be a closer based on running style, meaning the setup of this race will play a large role in her chances. If Speedstre (3) sets honest fractions through the first three furlongs, the race sets up well for White Sport Coat (4) and potentially Frostelle (5) to run past tired horses in the final furlong. A slow, contested pace would hurt the closers and favor whoever establishes the front.

Key Contenders

White Sport Coat (4) is the horse to beat in this spot. Trained by M. Anthony Ferraro, one of Finger Lakes' most accomplished trainers, White Sport Coat (4) was placed here at co-favorite odds for a reason. Ferraro is adept at placing horses at exactly the right level and in the right spot on the condition book, and his decision to enter White Sport Coat (4) alongside his other runner Speedstre (3) suggests confidence in both. Keiber J. Coa gets the mount, and Coa has been one of the more reliable finishers in the Finger Lakes jockey colony this meet. Look for White Sport Coat (4) to break alertly, find a comfortable spot in second or third, and kick home when asked.

Frostelle (5) draws nearly equal respect at 2-1 and represents the powerful Chris Englehart barn, which has an outstanding win percentage at Finger Lakes over the past several seasons. Andre Shivnarine Worrie takes the mount, and Englehart has shown a consistent ability to have horses fit and ready for big efforts at this level. Frostelle (5) will need a pace to run into, but if Speedstre (3) goes to the front with honest fractions, the outside post should not be prohibitive over six furlongs.

Secondary Choices

Missionattheglen (2) at 4-1 is trained by Michael LeCesse and is handled by Kevin Navarro. LeCesse has quietly assembled a solid record at Finger Lakes this meet, and Navarro is a capable jockey who has shown good judgment in placing horses at the right time. Missionattheglen (2) likely has the class to be involved at the top of the stretch if the pace scenario unfolds correctly.

Speedstre (3) at 4-1 is the likely pace-setter and deserves respect as part of any multi-race wager despite the conflicting interests of the barn's other entry. As the probable front-runner, Speedstre (3) has the opportunity to steal this race if he can get soft early fractions, but the presence of multiple other speed horses makes a wire-to-wire performance a significant challenge.

Longshots

Hamilton's Reason (1) at 5-1 is trained by Debra A. Breed and ridden by C. Russell. From the rail, Hamilton's Reason (1) has a tactical advantage if he can break cleanly and save ground. At 5-1, there is some value if the pace sets up and the rail is live. Allofasuddenlee (6) at 12-1 is trained by David M. Rivera and ridden by Jose Baez. A horse at this price in a six-horse allowance field is unlikely to have the class to factor, but if the field bunches in the stretch, Allofasuddenlee (6) is worth a minor consideration in exotic tickets.

Selections

Win: White Sport Coat (4) Place: Frostelle (5) Show: Missionattheglen (2)

RACE 2 — Post (1:24)/12:24/11:24/10:24 — 1320f | D | M | Md 11000 | BUM | Purse $17,000

Seven maiden claimers go six furlongs for $11,000, and this is a wide-open affair where the top two morning line choices — Jayme's Turn (4) at 2-1 and Joyful Dancer (5) at 3-1 — share the bottom of the field with legitimate credentials but neither is a lock. Finding an alternate win candidate is entirely feasible here, and the race structure rewards creative exotic wagering.

Pace Analysis

With seven horses in the field, the pace dynamics depend largely on whether Jayme's Turn (4) and the early types break with intent. If two or three horses press for the lead through the first quarter, the pace could set up for a closer. Joyful Dancer (5) trained by Paul Barrow and ridden by Kevin Navarro is likely to be forwardly placed, and Scarlett Queen (3) may also have early speed tendencies. A modest pace would benefit Jayme's Turn (4), who appears to be the more tactical type based on the combination of trainer Linda Rice and jockey O. Gomez.

Key Contenders

Jayme's Turn (4) is the morning line favorite at 2-1, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by O. Gomez. Rice is a respected trainer who has sent out winners at multiple levels on the New York circuit, and when she ships a horse to a maiden claimer at Finger Lakes, the intent is clear. This horse is expected to be fit, ready, and placed with a purpose. Gomez is a competent rider who will give Jayme's Turn (4) every opportunity to run to his potential.

Joyful Dancer (5) at 3-1 is trained by Paul Barrow and ridden by Kevin Navarro. Barrow has multiple horses entered today, suggesting his barn is in good current form, and Navarro is one of the more active and productive jockeys on the Finger Lakes circuit. Joyful Dancer (5) represents a genuine threat and may be the horse that sets up the pace while having enough in reserve to hold on at the wire.

Secondary Choices

Scarlett Queen (3) at 4-1 is trained by John A. Grabowski and ridden by Luis Pena. Grabowski is a regional conditioner who knows this circuit well, and at co-morning line odds with All Fun N Games (1), Scarlett Queen (3) deserves serious consideration. Pena is a serviceable rider, and a clean trip from post 3 could be very helpful.

All Fun N Games (1) at 4-1 is trained by Kelly Lynn Deiter and ridden by Keiber J. Coa. Rail position is valuable at Finger Lakes in sprint races, and Coa riding the 1 hole gives All Fun N Games (1) the best possible chance at a ground-saving trip. Deiter is a competent regional trainer, and at 4-1, this horse represents a playable option in a wide-open maiden field.

Longshots

Froghollowsummer (2) at 5-1 is trained by Lisa A. Reed and ridden by Steven Fret. Reed has been active at the Finger Lakes meet and occasionally produces sharp efforts from horses at longer odds. Froghollowsummer (2) is worth using in small exotic tickets but is not an outright win recommendation.

Rahfee Tonalist (6) at 10-1 is trained by Richard Shaffer and ridden by Jeremias Flores. Longshots in maiden claimers at this level at Finger Lakes occasionally spring upsets, and Rahfee Tonalist (6) has enough room on the morning line to offer genuine value if things fall right. Shaffer is a small-operation trainer who occasionally finds a spot where his horses are ready.

Ezra's Jet (7) at 15-1 comes from the barn of Ralph D'Alessandro with Wladimir Rengifo aboard. At 15-1, Ezra's Jet (7) is a deep longshot who would need significant trouble in running for the favorites to find his way into the exacta, but in a seven-horse maiden claimer, chaos can happen.

Selections

Win: Jayme's Turn (4) Place: Joyful Dancer (5) Show: All Fun N Games (1)

RACE 3 — Post (1:53)/12:53/11:53/10:53 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 11000n2l | BUM | Purse $17,500

Seven horses contest a six-furlong claiming race for horses that have not won two races. The Ferraro barn again has a double entry with Dancin Jane (4) and Big Jackie (5), and Tenacious Child (3) is the 2-1 morning line favorite from the barn of Linda Rice. This race has a clear favorite dynamic but also offers some interesting longshot angles.

Pace Analysis

Tenacious Child (3) figures to be a major factor depending on running style, and Good Mission (1) from the Paul Barrow barn may be among the early movers from the inside post. With seven horses and multiple potential pace contributors, this six-furlong race could set up contested early fractions that benefit closers. Dancin Jane (4) and Big Jackie (5) from the Ferraro barn may have different running styles that complement each other if the pace scenario develops correctly for one or the other.

Key Contenders

Tenacious Child (3) at 2-1 is the clear morning line favorite, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by O. Gomez. Rice's consistent ability to place horses correctly in the condition book is well established. Tenacious Child (3) is likely in good form based on the support at 2-1, and Gomez will be in position to make a decisive move when it matters most.

Dancin Jane (4) at 4-1 is trained by Michael Ferraro and ridden by L.E. Perez. The Ferraro barn's ability to win with multiple entries in the same race at Finger Lakes is well documented. Dancin Jane (4) gets a strong rider in Perez, who ranks among the most active jockeys on the card today and has good awareness of pace in mid-distance sprint races.

Secondary Choices

Good Mission (1) at 3-1 is trained by Paul Barrow and ridden by Jeremias Flores. From the rail at 3-1, Good Mission (1) has tactical options that outside horses do not. Barrow has shown good current form with multiple entries today, and Good Mission (1) is a legitimate alternative to the morning line favorite.

Big Jackie (5) at 4-1 is the second Ferraro entry, ridden by Sofia Vives. When a trainer enters two horses at the same morning line odds, both deserve consideration. Vives is a less prominent rider on this circuit but has the ability to execute a front-running or stalking trip if Big Jackie (5) has the early speed to make position.

Longshots

Going For Glory (7) at 6-1 is trained by William H. Bartlett and ridden by C. Russell. At 6-1 in a seven-horse claimer, Going For Glory (7) is the most interesting longshot angle on the board. From the outside post, Going For Glory (7) will need to overcome the extra ground, but Russell is a capable jockey who can navigate a seven-horse sprint.

Bustling Town (2) at 8-1 is trained by Harold James Bond and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez. Bond is a regional conditioner with limited recent action at Finger Lakes, and Bustling Town (2) at 8-1 is a deep value play for small exotic ticket inclusion only.

Princess Azara (6) at 12-1 is trained by Tamara Housel and ridden by J.M. Rohena. Princess Azara (6) is a significant longshot but is worth a minimal inclusion on large exotic tickets in case the chalk falters.

Selections

Win: Tenacious Child (3) Place: Good Mission (1) Show: Dancin Jane (4)

RACE 4 — Post (2:22)/1:22/12:22/11:22 — 1760f | D | AO | OClm 10000n2x | BUN | Purse $25,000

Six horses go one mile and 110 yards in the second-richest race on the card. This is an optional claiming event for older horses that have not won two races while competing against a claiming price, which typically attracts a better class of horse than a straight claimer at this level. Seams Like Destiny (3) is the 2-1 morning line choice, and Ferraro again sends out a double with Zeebear (1) and Freedsdale (5).

Pace Analysis

The 1,760-foot route distance opens up more tactical possibilities than the sprint races earlier on the card. Zeebear (1) from the inside post could be a front-runner or presser, and Seams Like Destiny (3) may have the class to sit off the pace and make a sustained run through the final three furlongs. Raw Courage (6) at 10-1 from the outside post is likely to be chasing from the back of the pack. If the pace is modest through the first half mile, the class of Seams Like Destiny (3) may dominate. If Zeebear (1) goes hard early, the race could be an upset candidate's playground.

Key Contenders

Seams Like Destiny (3) at 2-1 is trained by Troy Smith and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez. Smith has a quiet but effective operation at Finger Lakes, and Seams Like Destiny (3) drew the morning line favorite nod for good reason at a class level that suits. Gutierrez has been active on this card and is comfortable with both front-running and stalking assignments. In a six-horse optional claimer at 1,760 feet, Seams Like Destiny (3) has the profile of a horse that can grind out a victory if the pace is honestly run.

Zeebear (1) at 3-1 is trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and ridden by L.E. Perez. Rail position at one mile at Finger Lakes is valuable, particularly in a small field where the front-runner can control fractions. Ferraro's track record in optional claiming events is strong, and Zeebear (1) at 3-1 is a horse that must be included in any sensible multi-race sequence.

Secondary Choices

Az U Chase Me (2) at 4-1 is trained by Stacy Torelli and ridden by Steven Fret. Torelli is a female trainer who has developed a solid reputation on the upstate New York circuit, and Az U Chase Me (2) at 4-1 is a live secondary threat. From post 2, Az U Chase Me (2) has easy access to the rail in a small field.

Freedsdale (5) at 4-1 is the second Ferraro entry with Keiber J. Coa aboard. Similar to the earlier races with Ferraro doubles, both entries deserve consideration. Coa on Freedsdale (5) from post 5 in a route race may be asked to come from slightly further back, which is fine in a pace-honest scenario.

Longshots

Nostalgia's Smile (4) at 6-1 is trained by Timothy P. Murphy and ridden by M.A. Davila Jr. Murphy is a regional conditioner with an uneven record at Finger Lakes, and Nostalgia's Smile (4) at 6-1 is a potential sleeper if the two co-favorites and the Ferraro double all have troubled trips.

Raw Courage (6) at 10-1 is trained by Aadil S. Khan and ridden by J.M. Rohena. From the outside post in a six-horse route, Raw Courage (6) faces significant challenges, and the 10-1 morning line reflects limited recent form. Raw Courage (6) can be left off most tickets without concern.

Selections

Win: Seams Like Destiny (3) Place: Zeebear (1) Show: Az U Chase Me (2)

RACE 5 — Post (2:51)/1:51/12:51/11:51 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 5000n2l | BUN | Purse $13,700

Nine horses contest a one-mile and an eighth claiming race for horses that have not won two races. This is the largest field on the card and one of the most challenging races to handicap. Multiple 4-1 co-choices share the morning line, and several intriguing angles exist throughout the field.

Pace Analysis

With nine horses going 1,830 feet at the $5,000 claiming level, the pace will be set early and tested repeatedly. Fast Amendment (7) and American Halite (2) may be among the speed horses in a field with multiple legitimate pace candidates. The longer route distance at 1,830 feet — one mile and an eighth — historically tests bottom-level claimers at Finger Lakes, and horses with stamina that have run well at route distances deserve extra credit here. A hot early pace over nine furlongs at this level could produce a dramatic late-running effort from a horse with a modest morning line, making this race a prime candidate for longshot inclusion in exactas and trifectas.

Key Contenders

Fast Amendment (7) at 4-1 is trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and ridden by J.M. Rohena. Ferraro's consistent presence throughout this card — now appearing in Race 5 — underscores the strength of the operation. Fast Amendment (7) at 4-1 from post 7 in a nine-horse route field will need a clean break and a reasonable run to position to have his best chance. Rohena is a capable jockey on this circuit, and Ferraro's horses are rarely without a legitimate chance at this claiming level.

Beck's Dreamer (6) at 4-1 is trained by James Acquilano and ridden by M.A. Davila Jr. Acquilano has multiple horses on the card today, and Beck's Dreamer (6) appearing at a shared morning line favorite price suggests this horse has recent form that makes him live. Davila is a reliable jockey who handles mid-field trips effectively in routes.

Secondary Choices

American Halite (2) at 4-1 is trained by Ilmar Loaiza and ridden by Steven Fret. From post 2 in a nine-horse field, American Halite (2) has an excellent post position for a route race, and at 4-1, the morning line suggests handlers are confident. Fret has been active on today's card and is a jockey who understands Finger Lakes pace dynamics.

Flat Cap (5) at 5-1 is trained by Jose Merced and ridden by L.E. Perez. Merced sends out two horses in this race — Flat Cap (5) and Doha Desert (3) — and the presence of Perez on Flat Cap (5) suggests this is the stable's preferred runner. Perez has been among the more active jockeys on the card, and at 5-1 with a credible trainer, Flat Cap (5) is a live secondary choice.

Longshots

Luceo Non Uro (8) at 6-1 is trained by Katlynn Gutterson and ridden by Wladimir Rengifo. Gutterson has horses in multiple races today, and Luceo Non Uro (8) at 6-1 in a nine-horse route is one of the more interesting value plays on the card. If the pace is honest and the field strings out, a horse sitting mid-pack with a healthy closing kick could make a big move in the final quarter mile.

The Brown Egg (1) at 8-1 is trained by Lisa A. Reed and ridden by Joel Cruz. Reed is active today and had Froghollowsummer (2) earlier in the card. Cruz is a capable jockey, and The Brown Egg (1) at 8-1 from the inside rail in a nine-horse route is worth including in tri and super tickets.

Doha Desert (3) at 12-1 is trained by Jose Merced and ridden by Ramon M. Mulero. As the second Merced entry at a much longer price, Doha Desert (3) is a throwout on win wagers but a minimal inclusion on deep exotic tickets in case of chaos.

Cruising Cat (4) at 20-1 is trained by Matthew Clarke and ridden by O. Gomez. Clarke has two horses in this race — Cruising Cat (4) and Addyson's Dream (9). The presence of Clarke's second runner, Addyson's Dream (9) at 15-1, suggests Cruising Cat (4) at 20-1 is the barn's secondary option. Both can be left off most tickets.

Addyson's Dream (9) at 15-1 is trained by Matthew Clarke and ridden by Laird O. Bailey. From the outside post in a nine-horse route, Addyson's Dream (9) faces significant challenges and is primarily a deep exotic inclusion.

Selections

Win: Fast Amendment (7) Place: Beck's Dreamer (6) Show: Luceo Non Uro (8)

RACE 6 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1320f | D | M | Md 5000 | BUN | Purse $13,500

Eight maiden claimers go six furlongs for the $5,000 tag in what is historically one of the most difficult races to handicap on any Finger Lakes card. War Runner (4) is the morning line favorite at 3-1 from the Acquilano barn, and three co-choices sit at 4-1. This is a race where the morning line is bunched enough that finding value requires looking at specific angles rather than defaulting to the top choice.

Pace Analysis

Eight horses in a six-furlong sprint at the maiden $5,000 claiming level can produce chaotic early fractions if multiple speed horses battle for the lead. War Runner (4), Shea D Voting (1), Solo Street (3), and Im Gunna (7) may all have early speed tendencies based on their connections and post positions. A contested pace could set up a potential closer, but at this low level, the quality of closing kick is often suspect. The race may come down to who gets the cleanest break and most comfortable early position.

Key Contenders

War Runner (4) at 3-1 is trained by James Acquilano and ridden by Joel Cruz. Acquilano has multiple runners on today's card, and War Runner (4) at 3-1 is the clear morning line favorite in this maiden $5,000 event. Cruz is one of the more dependable jockeys on the card, and a rail-skimming trip from post 4 in an eight-horse sprint is workable. This horse gets the recommendation.

Solo Street (3) at 4-1 is trained by Jonathan B. Buckley and ridden by Kevin Navarro. Buckley's barn has been active at Finger Lakes, and the assignment of Navarro — one of the meet's top jockeys — suggests Solo Street (3) has legitimate credentials. From post 3, Solo Street (3) is positioned to find a comfortable pace stalking position early in the race.

Secondary Choices

Shea D Voting (1) at 4-1 is trained by Linda K. Dixon and ridden by Jacqueline A. Davis. Rail position in a maiden sprint has real value, and Shea D Voting (1) at 4-1 deserves serious attention. Dixon is a Finger Lakes regional conditioner, and Davis taking the call suggests familiarity with the horse's tendencies.

Im Gunna (7) at 4-1 is trained by Troy Smith and ridden by Andre Shivnarine Worrie. Smith had Seams Like Destiny (3) earlier in the card, and Im Gunna (7) at 4-1 in a maiden $5,000 is another live option from a barn that appears in good form today. Worrie is an active rider who can navigate an eight-horse sprint field from the outside post.

Longshots

Speightful Sam (5) at 6-1 is trained by M. Anthony Ferraro and ridden by C. Russell. Given Ferraro's prolific presence throughout today's card, Speightful Sam (5) at 6-1 is a horse that cannot be fully dismissed. Russell is capable, and a post 5 draw in an eight-horse sprint is not prohibitive.

Maximum Warrior (8) at 10-1 is trained by James Acquilano and ridden by O. Gomez. Acquilano sends out the morning line co-favorite War Runner (4) but also has Maximum Warrior (8) at 10-1 in the same race. Gomez on Maximum Warrior (8) from the outside post is a live longshot angle worth including in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Ten Run Rule (6) at 20-1 is trained by Glenroy Brown and ridden by Emanuel De Diego. Brown is a small-operation trainer, and Ten Run Rule (6) at 20-1 is a deep throwout on most tickets.

Last Vintage (2) at 20-1 is trained by Eduardo Maver and ridden by Jose Ventura. Last Vintage (2) at 20-1 with a less prominent rider faces a tough assignment and is left off all tickets.

Selections

Win: War Runner (4) Place: Solo Street (3) Show: Shea D Voting (1)

RACE 7 — Post (3:49)/2:49/1:49/12:49 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 7500b | BUN | Purse $16,200

Nine horses contest a one-mile and an eighth claiming event for the $7,500 tag, and this is arguably the most competitive race of the day with legitimate depth throughout the field. Hey Toby (7) is the 3-1 morning line favorite, with Fiery Heart (9), Mad Magic (2), and Wild Banker (6) all receiving significant support.

Pace Analysis

Nine horses going 1,830 feet at the $7,500 claiming level will produce a pace scenario that tests every runner's stamina. Mr. Einstein (1) and Tony O (3) may be among the early movers, and the inside posts will have an advantage early in the race if horses break cleanly. Hey Toby (7) has the profile of a horse that can work from a stalking position and make a sustained move in the final turn. Fiery Heart (9) from the outside post faces the most difficult early trip in a nine-horse route field. The critical pace question is whether multiple horses press early, setting up a genuine stretch duel that benefits closers.

Key Contenders

Hey Toby (7) at 3-1 is trained by Gregory E. Charlerie and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez. Charlerie has a steady operation at Finger Lakes, and Hey Toby (7) at 3-1 is the morning line favorite for good reason. Gutierrez has been active throughout this card and gets the call on the morning line top choice. In a nine-horse route, Hey Toby (7)'s ability to work from a stalking position and inherit the lead through the stretch is a significant advantage over horses that need to make up serious ground.

Fiery Heart (9) at 4-1 is trained by Jonathan B. Buckley and ridden by Kevin Navarro. Despite the outside post disadvantage in a nine-horse route, Fiery Heart (9) at 4-1 with Navarro aboard is a serious contender. Buckley's barn has been active today, and the assignment of Navarro — the most prominent jockey in the Finger Lakes colony this meet — suggests this horse is ready to fire a big effort.

Secondary Choices

Mad Magic (2) at 4-1 is trained by Michael Ferraro and ridden by L.E. Perez. From post 2 in a nine-horse route, Mad Magic (2) has an excellent post position and the support of the meet's most active training barn. Ferraro's record in route races at Finger Lakes is strong, and Mad Magic (2) at 4-1 with a powerful post draw is a legitimate alternative to the top two choices.

Wild Banker (6) at 6-1 is trained by David Oyola and ridden by M.A. Davila Jr. Oyola is a regional trainer with occasional winners at this level, and Wild Banker (6) at 6-1 is an intriguing value play. From post 6 in a nine-horse route, Wild Banker (6) will need to find a comfortable mid-field position to have a chance in the stretch.

Longshots

Tapizar's Temper (8) at 8-1 is trained by Rachel Sells and ridden by O.K. Hernandez. Sells also has Winston D (5) in Race 8, suggesting the barn is in active current form. Tapizar's Temper (8) at 8-1 is a genuine value play in exactas and trifectas.

Tony O (3) at 8-1 is trained by Katlynn Gutterson and ridden by Emanuel De Diego. Gutterson has horses in multiple races today, and Tony O (3) at 8-1 from post 3 could be a pace-setter who hangs on with a soft lead. Worth including in tri tickets.

Retail Man (5) at 10-1 is trained by Matthew Clarke and ridden by O. Gomez. Clarke again sends out a runner in a route race, and Retail Man (5) at 10-1 is a deep longshot with Gomez aboard. Gomez can navigate a large field, but the 10-1 price reflects limited recent form.

Makar (4) at 12-1 is trained by Ilmar Loaiza and ridden by Wladimir Rengifo. Loaiza had American Halite (2) in Race 5, and Makar (4) at 12-1 is a secondary option for deep exotic inclusion.

Mr. Einstein (1) at 20-1 is trained by Nirka Huertas and ridden by Joel Cruz. From the rail in a nine-horse route, Mr. Einstein (1) at 20-1 could be a pace factor if he breaks well, but the long odds reflect limited expectations. Minimal exotic inclusion only.

Selections

Win: Hey Toby (7) Place: Fiery Heart (9) Show: Mad Magic (2)

RACE 8 — Post (4:18)/3:18/2:18/1:18 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n3l | BUN | Purse $13,800

The card closes with nine horses going six furlongs in a claiming race for horses that have not won three races. Valiant Warrior (7) is the 3-1 morning line favorite from the Debra A. Breed barn, and several interesting alternatives populate this field including Winston D (5) and Last Drink (8) at 4-1.

Pace Analysis

Nine horses over six furlongs in a claiming event at this level can produce a scrambled early pace if multiple speed horses contest the lead. Disco Dancer (2), Montauk Surf (3), and Burning Munny (9) may be among the early types depending on individual running styles. Valiant Warrior (7) at 3-1 with O. Gomez appears to be more of a tactical horse than a pure speed type, meaning Valiant Warrior (7) benefits from a contested early pace that sets up a sustained run through the final three furlongs. If the race is contested early, the morning line favorite is well positioned.

Key Contenders

Valiant Warrior (7) at 3-1 is trained by Debra A. Breed and ridden by O. Gomez. Breed had Hamilton's Reason (1) in Race 1 with C. Russell, and she sends out Valiant Warrior (7) as her feature runner at the end of the card. Gomez aboard the 3-1 morning line favorite in the closing race is a strong combination, and Valiant Warrior (7) has the profile of a horse that can run down tired leaders in the final furlong of a six-furlong sprint at this level.

Winston D (5) at 4-1 is trained by Rachel Sells and ridden by L.E. Perez. Sells had Tapizar's Temper (8) in Race 7, and the double-entry suggests the barn is in active and confident current form. Perez is among the busiest jockeys on the card today and understands how to place horses in optimal striking position. Winston D (5) at 4-1 from post 5 is an excellent alternative to the favorite.

Secondary Choices

Last Drink (8) at 4-1 is trained by Richard Shaffer and ridden by Jeremias Flores. Shaffer appeared earlier with Rahfee Tonalist (6) in Race 2, and Last Drink (8) at 4-1 is a live secondary option from a barn that has shown interest throughout today's card. Flores has been active on this card, and from post 8 in a nine-horse sprint, Last Drink (8) will need a clean break.

Montauk Surf (3) at 5-1 is trained by Paul Barrow and ridden by Kevin Navarro. Barrow has been well represented throughout today's card, and the assignment of Navarro on Montauk Surf (3) at 5-1 makes this horse a legitimate secondary selection. A post 3 draw in a sprint race is manageable, and Navarro's ability to find position early is well established.

Longshots

Disco Dancer (2) at 6-1 is trained by Matthew Clarke and ridden by Emanuel De Diego. Clarke has been active throughout the card, and Disco Dancer (2) at 6-1 from post 2 in a sprint is an interesting pace angle. If Disco Dancer (2) can break cleanly and get to the front with a soft early tempo, there is a real upset possibility.

Lily's Army (4) at 12-1 is trained by Katlynn Gutterson and ridden by Steven Fret. Gutterson has had multiple horses throughout the card, and Lily's Army (4) at 12-1 is a deep value inclusion in trifectas and superfectas.

Burning Munny (9) at 15-1 is trained by Thalia Areche and ridden by N.R. Alvarado. From the outside post in a nine-horse sprint, Burning Munny (9) faces the most difficult early trip in the field. Deep exotic inclusion only.

Not My Type (1) at 20-1 is trained by Michael T. Sabine and ridden by Ben S. Joseph. A 20-1 morning line choice in a closing-race maiden claimer is unlikely to factor, and Not My Type (1) can be omitted from most tickets.

Dignified Response (6) at 20-1 is trained by Dewight J. Wadams and ridden by J.M. Rohena. Similar to Not My Type (1), Dignified Response (6) at 20-1 faces long odds for good reason and is a throwout on all win and most exotic wagers.

Selections

Win: Valiant Warrior (7) Place: Winston D (5) Show: Montauk Surf (3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Kevin Navarro is one of the signature riders at Finger Lakes this meet and appears on four horses today across Races 1, 2, 6, 7, and 8. Navarro's ability to find tactical position in sprint races while also being effective in route events makes him a jockey whose horses demand serious consideration regardless of morning line odds. His mounts include Missionattheglen (2) in Race 1, Joyful Dancer (5) in Race 2, Solo Street (3) in Race 6, Fiery Heart (9) in Race 7, and Montauk Surf (3) in Race 8. Navarro has shown a consistent ability to get horses into position through the first turn without using excessive energy, which is particularly important in the route races on today's card.

L.E. Perez is the single busiest jockey on the card with rides in five races. Perez has mounts on Zeebear (1) in Race 4, Flat Cap (5) in Race 5, Mad Magic (2) in Race 7, Winston D (5) in Race 8, and Dancin Jane (4) in Race 3. Perez's high volume of rides today reflects his standing in the Finger Lakes jockey colony, and bettors should note that Perez on a Ferraro horse — such as Zeebear (1) and Mad Magic (2) — is a particularly reliable combination in claiming and optional claiming events.

O. Gomez appears throughout the card on Jayme's Turn (4) in Race 2, Tenacious Child (3) in Race 3, Retail Man (5) in Race 7, Valiant Warrior (7) in Race 8, and Cruising Cat (4) in Race 5. Gomez is a journeyman rider who can execute both stalking and closing trips effectively. His assignment on the morning line favorites in Races 2 and 3 — Jayme's Turn (4) and Tenacious Child (3) — reflects the confidence of trainers Linda Rice in both cases, suggesting Gomez has a strong working relationship with Rice's operation at this meet.

Joel Cruz has mounts in multiple races including The Brown Egg (1) in Race 5, War Runner (4) in Race 6, and Mr. Einstein (1) in Race 7. Cruz has been a reliable finisher in the top three at Finger Lakes this season and is a particularly effective rider in sprint races, where his ability to rate a horse just off the pace without losing contact can be the difference in a competitive field.

Keiber J. Coa appears on White Sport Coat (4) in Race 1, All Fun N Games (1) in Race 2, and Freedsdale (5) in Race 4. Coa is a skilled rider who has demonstrated an ability to win with horses at multiple class levels. His presence on the 2-1 morning line co-favorite White Sport Coat (4) in Race 1 is the most significant assignment of his day, and the combination of Coa with a Ferraro horse at a prime odds number is worth premium attention.

Reylu Gutierrez is aboard Bustling Town (2) in Race 3, Seams Like Destiny (3) in Race 4, and Hey Toby (7) in Race 7. Gutierrez's assignment on the 2-1 morning line favorite Seams Like Destiny (3) in Race 4 and the 3-1 morning line choice Hey Toby (7) in Race 7 gives him two prime opportunities to add wins to his afternoon total.

Steven Fret has a full book with mounts on Froghollowsummer (2) in Race 2, Az U Chase Me (2) in Race 4, American Halite (2) in Race 5, and Lily's Army (4) in Race 8. Fret is a capable mid-tier jockey at Finger Lakes who occasionally produces big upsets from overlooked horses.

Trainer Notes and Insights

M. Anthony Ferraro is unquestionably the dominant trainer story on today's card. Ferraro has representatives in Races 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, with double entries in several of those races. In Race 1, he sends out both Speedstre (3) and White Sport Coat (4). In Race 3, both Dancin Jane (4) and Big Jackie (5) represent his barn. In Race 4, Zeebear (1) and Freedsdale (5) give him two shots at the biggest purse on the card outside of Race 1. In Race 5, Fast Amendment (7) rounds out his route entries, and Speightful Sam (5) in Race 6 gives him a presence in the maiden claiming event as well. Ferraro's win percentage at Finger Lakes this meet has consistently ranked at or near the top of the standings, and his double-entry strategy — placing two horses in a race at similar odds — is a known pattern that allows his jockeys to cover multiple tactical scenarios. When Ferraro enters two horses at the same morning line, the one with the more prominent rider is typically, though not always, the intended best bet.

Paul Barrow sends out horses in Race 2 with Joyful Dancer (5), Race 3 with Good Mission (1), Race 7 with no entry, and Race 8 with Montauk Surf (3). Barrow's multiple-race presence suggests his barn is in a productive current cycle, and each of his entries deserves attention at fair odds. Joyful Dancer (5) at 3-1 in Race 2 and Good Mission (1) at 3-1 in Race 3 are both live options.

Linda Rice has two entries today, Jayme's Turn (4) in Race 2 and Tenacious Child (3) in Race 3, both as morning line favorites with O. Gomez in the irons. Rice is a well-regarded conditioner who knows how to place horses at appropriate levels, and both entries deserve maximum respect given the consistent trainer-jockey angle.

James Acquilano has three horses entered today — Beck's Dreamer (6) in Race 5, War Runner (4) in Race 6, and Maximum Warrior (8) also in Race 6. The double entry in Race 6 with War Runner (4) as the morning line favorite and Maximum Warrior (8) as a 10-1 secondary option mirrors the Ferraro pattern. The preferred runner appears to be War Runner (4) given Joel Cruz's assignment.

Matthew Clarke has runners in Race 5 with Cruising Cat (4) and Addyson's Dream (9), Race 7 with Retail Man (5), and Race 8 with Disco Dancer (2). Clarke's willingness to run horses throughout a card suggests the barn has a large, active stable but not necessarily horses with superior current form.

Katlynn Gutterson appears with Luceo Non Uro (8) in Race 5, Tony O (3) in Race 7, and Lily's Army (4) in Race 8. The multiple entries suggest an active barn, and Luceo Non Uro (8) at 6-1 in Race 5 is the most interesting value play among Gutterson's runners.

Chris Englehart, whose Frostelle (5) is the co-favorite in Race 1, is a well-established trainer whose horses at Finger Lakes have routinely performed at or above expectations. Englehart's ability to have horses fit for their second or third start of a campaign is a well-known positive angle, and if Frostelle (5) is returning from a freshening, the late closing style in a pace-honest six-furlong sprint could produce a winning effort.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most structured approach to wagering this Finger Lakes card involves targeting the three races with the clearest form and value — Race 1, Race 4, and Race 7 — as the cornerstones of a multi-race sequence while using wider coverage in the more unpredictable maiden and bottom-level claiming events.

The Race 1 allowance sets up as the foundation bet of the day. White Sport Coat (4) at 2-1 is a prime candidate for a single in the win pool and as the anchor in a Race 1 through Race 3 Pick 3. Pairing White Sport Coat (4) with Frostelle (5) in the exacta at estimated odds of 4-1 to 5-1 represents genuine value, and the $2 exacta box of White Sport Coat (4) and Frostelle (5) with Missionattheglen (2) included as a saver creates a ticket with excellent risk-reward structure.

For the Race 2 through Race 4 Pick 3, using Jayme's Turn (4) and Joyful Dancer (5) in Race 2, Tenacious Child (3) and Good Mission (1) in Race 3, and Seams Like Destiny (3) and Zeebear (1) in Race 4 creates a $1 Pick 3 ticket that costs $8 and covers the most likely outcomes across three consecutive races. If the morning line favorites run true to form, this ticket should cash at a reasonable price given the combination of chalk and secondary choices.

The Race 7 nine-horse route at the $7,500 claiming level is a prime trifecta race. Using Hey Toby (7) on top with Fiery Heart (9) and Mad Magic (2) in second, and adding Wild Banker (6) and Tapizar's Temper (8) in third represents a $12 trifecta box that should return significant value given the competitive nature of the field. Hey Toby (7) to win, Fiery Heart (9) and Mad Magic (2) to place, and the field for show is an alternative trifecta key that provides broader coverage at a reasonable ticket price.

The Race 5 through Race 8 Pick 4 is the best late-card multi-race wager on the program. Using Fast Amendment (7) and Beck's Dreamer (6) in Race 5, War Runner (4) and Solo Street (3) in Race 6, Hey Toby (7) and Fiery Heart (9) in Race 7, and Valiant Warrior (7) and Winston D (5) in Race 8 creates a $1 Pick 4 ticket at $16 that covers eight total combinations. This ticket structure allows for one or two upsets without the entire ticket washing out.

For value in the win pool, Luceo Non Uro (8) at 6-1 in Race 5 represents the best single-race value play on the card. The Gutterson barn has been active, the 6-1 price in a nine-horse route allows for a positive expected-value wager, and the outside post in a route race is manageable if the horse has natural ability to close. A small win wager on Luceo Non Uro (8) as a longshot win play, combined with inclusion in the Race 5 exacta beneath Fast Amendment (7) and Beck's Dreamer (6), creates a layered approach to the race.

The best exacta of the day is Race 1, keying White Sport Coat (4) over Frostelle (5) and Missionattheglen (2). The best trifecta of the day is Race 7 using Hey Toby (7) on top. The best win single on the card is White Sport Coat (4) in Race 1. The best value play of the day is Luceo Non Uro (8) in Race 5 at 6-1. The best Pick 3 key race is Race 4 using Seams Like Destiny (3) as a single anchor between Race 3 and Race 5.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback