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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Fort Erie, September 29, 2026

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How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:55 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1742157%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)742057%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)724029%
Experimental Weight Set 2633050%
Experimental Weight Set 3742157%

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
FEX7Model Weight set 2#1 – Dreams And Schemes1 scratch(es)


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Fort Erie — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 55 graded races at Fort Erie, 2026-08-18 to 2026-09-22.

0%10%19%29%39%Our top pick: 30.9% from 55 racesOur top pick30.9%Morning-line favourite: 27.3% from 55 racesMorning-line favourite27.3%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick30.9%55
Morning-line favourite27.3%55
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Buttonwood Tree (2/1)
Place:1Onenightstandards (9/5)
Show:3Silent Miracle (9/2)
Other contenders:6Delian League (5/1), 4Fast And Ready (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mannix (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425631
🎯 Longshots: 152436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Star Scholar (5/2)
Place:5Globetrotting (3/1)
Show:2Bill Needle (7/2)
Other contenders:3Mymathes Correct (6/1), 4Boston Bay (2/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 51324
🎯 Longshots: 13542
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,250
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Mo Argento (2/1)
Place:2Silent Passion (9/5)
Show:5Rifling (3/1)
Other contenders:1Souper Cop (5/1), 4Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13254
🎯 Longshots: 23541
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $28,800
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Go Go Alexander (8/5)
Place:3Times A Breeze (7/2)
Show:4Ilikeitwhenitsnows (5/2)
Other contenders:1Back River (6/1), 7Catholic Jackie (10/1)
Rest of field:6Audax Minor (20/1), 5Princessonamission (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 257463
🎯 Longshots: 2675431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Let's Go Liam (8/5)
Place:1Arami's Speighster (5/2)
Show:4Sassagoula River (3/1)
Other contenders:3Smarter Still (6/1), 2Z Hub (12/1)
Rest of field:5Zimbawee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 562341
🎯 Longshots: 614253
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,750
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Dreaming Of Hope (7/5)
Place:2Because (8/5)
Show:4Really Thirsty (3/1)
Other contenders:3Onejabtoomany (10/1), 5Get Out The Vote (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 24135
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $26,550
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Dreams And Schemes (2/1)
Place:3Alta Calibre (5/2)
Show:6Knotty And Nice (7/2)
Other contenders:2Coach Caley (5/1), 8Hot Omelet (4/1), 4Candid Candace (8/1)
Rest of field:5Glitter Bay (12/1), 7Mi Tormenta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162348
🎯 Longshots: 43165287
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Onenightstandards (9/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:5Buttonwood Tree (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:3Silent Miracle (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Delian League (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -27%, 4Fast And Ready (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%
Rest of field:2Mannix (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -61%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Onenightstandards — 32.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Onenightstandards32.6% ◀Buttonwood Tree — 27.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Buttonwood Tree27.8%Silent Miracle — 16.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Silent Miracle16.7%Delian League — 12.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Delian League12.8%Fast And Ready — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Fast And Ready7.0%Mannix — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Mannix3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Onenightstandards32.6%1.8/1
Buttonwood Tree27.8%2/1
Silent Miracle16.7%4.5/1
Delian League12.8%5/1
Fast And Ready7.0%8/1
Mannix3.2%12/1
🌧️ Off-track: 426531
🎯 Longshots: 152436
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:1Star Scholar (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:5Globetrotting (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:2Bill Needle (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4Boston Bay (2/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -52%, 3Mymathes Correct (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Star Scholar — 26.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Star Scholar26.2% ◀Globetrotting — 24.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Globetrotting24.2%Bill Needle — 19.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bill Needle19.6%Boston Bay — 19.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Boston Bay19.4%Mymathes Correct — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Mymathes Correct10.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Star Scholar26.2%2.5/1
Globetrotting24.2%3/1
Bill Needle19.6%3.5/1
Boston Bay19.4%2/1
Mymathes Correct10.6%6/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStar Scholar: model 26.2% vs market 23.2% (+3.1 points)Star Scholar+3.1Globetrotting: model 24.2% vs market 20.3% (+3.9 points)Globetrotting+3.9Bill Needle: model 19.6% vs market 18.0% (+1.6 points)Bill Needle+1.6Boston Bay: model 19.4% vs market 27.0% (-7.6 points)Boston Bay-7.6Mymathes Correct: model 10.6% vs market 11.6% (-1.0 points)Mymathes Correct-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Star Scholar26.2%23.2%+3.1
Globetrotting24.2%20.3%+3.9
Bill Needle19.6%18.0%+1.6
Boston Bay19.4%27.0%-7.6
Mymathes Correct10.6%11.6%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 51324
🎯 Longshots: 13542
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,250
Win:2Silent Passion (9/5) 31% · fair 5-2
Place:3Mo Argento (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Show:5Rifling (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:1Souper Cop (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -31%, 4Palmilla's Bet (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Silent Passion — 30.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Silent Passion30.5% ◀Mo Argento — 27.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Mo Argento27.4%Rifling — 21.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Rifling21.4%Souper Cop — 12.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Souper Cop12.1%Palmilla'S Bet — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Palmilla'S Bet8.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Silent Passion30.5%1.8/1
Mo Argento27.4%2/1
Rifling21.4%3/1
Souper Cop12.1%5/1
Palmilla'S Bet8.6%8/1
🌧️ Off-track: 13524
🎯 Longshots: 23541
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $28,800
Win:2Go Go Alexander (8/5) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:4Ilikeitwhenitsnows (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38%
Show:3Times A Breeze (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:1Back River (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 7Catholic Jackie (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Rest of field:5Princessonamission (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 6Audax Minor (20/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Go Go Alexander — 32.0% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Go Go Alexander32.0% ◀Ilikeitwhenitsnows — 19.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Ilikeitwhenitsnows19.8%Times A Breeze — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Times A Breeze19.0%Back River — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Back River8.2%Catholic Jackie — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Catholic Jackie8.0%Princessonamission — 7.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Princessonamission7.3%Audax Minor — 5.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Audax Minor5.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Go Go Alexander32.0%1.6/1
Ilikeitwhenitsnows19.8%2.5/1
Times A Breeze19.0%3.5/1
Back River8.2%6/1
Catholic Jackie8.0%10/1
Princessonamission7.3%12/1
Audax Minor5.7%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 257463
🎯 Longshots: 2675431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:6Let's Go Liam (8/5) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:1Arami's Speighster (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28%
Show:4Sassagoula River (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:3Smarter Still (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 5Zimbawee (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:2Z Hub (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Let'S Go Liam — 35.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Let'S Go Liam35.1% ◀Arami'S Speighster — 22.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Arami'S Speighster22.5%Sassagoula River — 22.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Sassagoula River22.0%Smarter Still — 10.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Smarter Still10.8%Zimbawee — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Zimbawee5.1%Z Hub — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Z Hub4.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Let'S Go Liam35.1%1.6/1
Arami'S Speighster22.5%2.5/1
Sassagoula River22.0%3/1
Smarter Still10.8%6/1
Zimbawee5.1%10/1
Z Hub4.5%12/1
🌧️ Off-track: 562341
🎯 Longshots: 614253
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,750
Win:1Dreaming Of Hope (7/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:2Because (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -45%
Show:4Really Thirsty (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Other contenders:3Onejabtoomany (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 5Get Out The Vote (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dreaming Of Hope — 39.9% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Dreaming Of Hope39.9% ◀Because — 25.6% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Because25.6%Really Thirsty — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Really Thirsty19.4%Onejabtoomany — 10.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Onejabtoomany10.2%Get Out The Vote — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Get Out The Vote4.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dreaming Of Hope39.9%1.4/1
Because25.6%1.6/1
Really Thirsty19.4%3/1
Onejabtoomany10.2%10/1
Get Out The Vote4.9%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDreaming Of Hope: model 39.9% vs market 34.2% (+5.7 points)Dreaming Of Hope+5.7Because: model 25.6% vs market 31.5% (-6.0 points)Because-6.0Really Thirsty: model 19.4% vs market 20.5% (-1.1 points)Really Thirsty-1.1Onejabtoomany: model 10.2% vs market 7.5% (+2.8 points)Onejabtoomany+2.8Get Out The Vote: model 4.9% vs market 6.3% (-1.4 points)Get Out The Vote-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dreaming Of Hope39.9%34.2%+5.7
Because25.6%31.5%-6.0
Really Thirsty19.4%20.5%-1.1
Onejabtoomany10.2%7.5%+2.8
Get Out The Vote4.9%6.3%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 24135
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $26,550
Win:1Dreams And Schemes (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:3Alta Calibre (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:2Coach Caley (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:6Knotty And Nice (7/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -56%, 8Hot Omelet (4/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -54%, 4Candid Candace (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:5Glitter Bay (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 7Mi Tormenta (20/1) 2% · fair 60-1 underlay -67%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dreams And Schemes — 27.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Dreams And Schemes27.5% ◀Alta Calibre — 24.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Alta Calibre24.8%Coach Caley — 12.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Coach Caley12.0%Knotty And Nice — 11.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Knotty And Nice11.2%Hot Omelet — 10.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Hot Omelet10.3%Candid Candace — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Candid Candace7.6%Glitter Bay — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Glitter Bay4.9%Mi Tormenta — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Mi Tormenta1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dreams And Schemes27.5%2/1
Alta Calibre24.8%2.5/1
Coach Caley12.0%5/1
Knotty And Nice11.2%3.5/1
Hot Omelet10.3%4/1
Candid Candace7.6%8/1
Glitter Bay4.9%12/1
Mi Tormenta1.6%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDreams And Schemes: model 27.5% vs market 23.1% (+4.5 points)Dreams And Schemes+4.5Alta Calibre: model 24.8% vs market 19.8% (+5.0 points)Alta Calibre+5.0Coach Caley: model 12.0% vs market 11.5% (+0.5 points)Coach Caley+0.5Knotty And Nice: model 11.2% vs market 15.4% (-4.2 points)Knotty And Nice-4.2Hot Omelet: model 10.3% vs market 13.9% (-3.5 points)Hot Omelet-3.5Candid Candace: model 7.6% vs market 7.7% (-0.1 points)Candid Candace-0.1Glitter Bay: model 4.9% vs market 5.3% (-0.4 points)Glitter Bay-0.4Mi Tormenta: model 1.6% vs market 3.3% (-1.7 points)Mi Tormenta-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dreams And Schemes27.5%23.1%+4.5
Alta Calibre24.8%19.8%+5.0
Coach Caley12.0%11.5%+0.5
Knotty And Nice11.2%15.4%-4.2
Hot Omelet10.3%13.9%-3.5
Candid Candace7.6%7.7%-0.1
Glitter Bay4.9%5.3%-0.4
Mi Tormenta1.6%3.3%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 162345
🎯 Longshots: 43165287
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:5Buttonwood Tree (2/1)
Place:1Onenightstandards (9/5)
Show:3Silent Miracle (9/2)
Other contenders:6Delian League (5/1), 4Fast And Ready (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mannix (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425613
🎯 Longshots: 152436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:3Mymathes Correct (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:1Star Scholar (5/2)
Show:5Globetrotting (3/1)
Other contenders:4Boston Bay (2/1), 2Bill Needle (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 13524
🎯 Longshots: 13542
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,250
Win:3Mo Argento (2/1)
Place:2Silent Passion (9/5)
Show:5Rifling (3/1)
Other contenders:1Souper Cop (5/1), 4Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31254
🎯 Longshots: 23541
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $28,800
Win:2Go Go Alexander (8/5)
Place:3Times A Breeze (7/2)
Show:7Catholic Jackie (10/1)
Other contenders:1Back River (6/1), 4Ilikeitwhenitsnows (5/2)
Rest of field:6Audax Minor (20/1), 5Princessonamission (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 257341
🎯 Longshots: 2675431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:6Let's Go Liam (8/5)
Place:1Arami's Speighster (5/2)
Show:4Sassagoula River (3/1)
Other contenders:2Z Hub (12/1), 3Smarter Still (6/1)
Rest of field:5Zimbawee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 564213
🎯 Longshots: 614253
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,750
Win:1Dreaming Of Hope (7/5)
Place:2Because (8/5)
Show:4Really Thirsty (3/1)
Other contenders:3Onejabtoomany (10/1), 5Get Out The Vote (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12435
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $26,550
Win:6Knotty And Nice (7/2)
Place:1Dreams And Schemes (2/1)
Show:3Alta Calibre (5/2)
Other contenders:4Candid Candace (8/1), 8Hot Omelet (4/1), 5Glitter Bay (12/1)
Rest of field:2Coach Caley (5/1), 7Mi Tormenta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612348
🎯 Longshots: 43165287
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Onenightstandards (9/5)
Place:5Buttonwood Tree (2/1)
Show:3Silent Miracle (9/2)
Other contenders:6Delian League (5/1), 2Mannix (12/1)
Rest of field:4Fast And Ready (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425163
🎯 Longshots: 152436
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:3Mymathes Correct (6/1)
Place:5Globetrotting (3/1)
Show:4Boston Bay (2/1)
Other contenders:1Star Scholar (5/2), 2Bill Needle (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 35124
🎯 Longshots: 13542
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,250
Win:3Mo Argento (2/1)
Place:2Silent Passion (9/5)
Show:5Rifling (3/1)
Other contenders:1Souper Cop (5/1), 4Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32154
🎯 Longshots: 23541
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $28,800
Win:2Go Go Alexander (8/5)
Place:3Times A Breeze (7/2)
Show:4Ilikeitwhenitsnows (5/2)
Other contenders:6Audax Minor (20/1), 1Back River (6/1)
Rest of field:5Princessonamission (12/1), 7Catholic Jackie (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253467
🎯 Longshots: 2675431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:6Let's Go Liam (8/5)
Place:1Arami's Speighster (5/2)
Show:4Sassagoula River (3/1)
Other contenders:3Smarter Still (6/1), 2Z Hub (12/1)
Rest of field:5Zimbawee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 651432
🎯 Longshots: 614253
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,750
Win:1Dreaming Of Hope (7/5)
Place:2Because (8/5)
Show:4Really Thirsty (3/1)
Other contenders:3Onejabtoomany (10/1), 5Get Out The Vote (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12435
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $26,550
Win:8Hot Omelet (4/1)
Place:1Dreams And Schemes (2/1)
Show:6Knotty And Nice (7/2)
Other contenders:3Alta Calibre (5/2), 2Coach Caley (5/1), 4Candid Candace (8/1)
Rest of field:5Glitter Bay (12/1), 7Mi Tormenta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162384
🎯 Longshots: 43165287
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:5Buttonwood Tree (2/1)
Place:1Onenightstandards (9/5)
Show:3Silent Miracle (9/2)
Other contenders:6Delian League (5/1), 4Fast And Ready (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mannix (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425613
🎯 Longshots: 152436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:3Mymathes Correct (6/1)
Place:1Star Scholar (5/2)
Show:5Globetrotting (3/1)
Other contenders:4Boston Bay (2/1), 2Bill Needle (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 31524
🎯 Longshots: 13542
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,250
Win:3Mo Argento (2/1)
Place:2Silent Passion (9/5)
Show:5Rifling (3/1)
Other contenders:1Souper Cop (5/1), 4Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32154
🎯 Longshots: 23541
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $28,800
Win:2Go Go Alexander (8/5)
Place:3Times A Breeze (7/2)
Show:7Catholic Jackie (10/1)
Other contenders:4Ilikeitwhenitsnows (5/2), 1Back River (6/1)
Rest of field:6Audax Minor (20/1), 5Princessonamission (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 257346
🎯 Longshots: 2675431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:6Let's Go Liam (8/5)
Place:1Arami's Speighster (5/2)
Show:4Sassagoula River (3/1)
Other contenders:3Smarter Still (6/1), 2Z Hub (12/1)
Rest of field:5Zimbawee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 651432
🎯 Longshots: 614253
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $27,750
Win:1Dreaming Of Hope (7/5)
Place:2Because (8/5)
Show:4Really Thirsty (3/1)
Other contenders:3Onejabtoomany (10/1), 5Get Out The Vote (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12435
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $26,550
Win:6Knotty And Nice (7/2)
Place:3Alta Calibre (5/2)
Show:1Dreams And Schemes (2/1)
Other contenders:8Hot Omelet (4/1), 2Coach Caley (5/1), 4Candid Candace (8/1)
Rest of field:5Glitter Bay (12/1), 7Mi Tormenta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162348
🎯 Longshots: 43165287
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #1,#5 (60%) / R2: #1,#5,#2 (70%) / R3: #2,#3,#5 (79%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #2,#3,#5 (79%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (71%) / R5: #6,#1,#4 (80%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 45%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #2,#4,#3 (71%) / R5: #6,#1,#4 (80%) / R6: #1,#2 (65%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 37%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #6,#1,#4 (80%) / R6: #1,#2 (65%) / R7: #1,#3,#2 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #1,#5 (60%) / R2: #1,#5,#2 (70%) / R3: #2,#3,#5 (79%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (71%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #2,#3,#5 (79%) / R4: #2,#4,#3 (71%) / R5: #6,#1,#4 (80%) / R6: #1,#2 (65%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALTA CALIBREARAMI'S SPEIGHSTERAUDAX MINORBACK RIVERBECAUSE
BOSTON BAYBUTTONWOOD TREECANDID CANDACECATHOLIC JACKIECOACH CALEY
DREAMING OF HOPEDREAMS AND SCHEMESFAST AND READYGET OUT THE VOTEGLITTER BAY
GO GO ALEXANDERHOT OMELETILIKEITWHENITSNOWSKNOTTY AND NICELET'S GO LIAM
MI TORMENTAMO ARGENTOMYMATHES CORRECTONEJABTOOMANYONENIGHTSTANDARDS
PRINCESSONAMISSIONREALLY THIRSTYRIFLINGSASSAGOULA RIVERSILENT MIRACLE
SMARTER STILLSOUPER COPSTAR SCHOLARTIMES A BREEZEZ HUB

 


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