Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Grants Pass, October 4, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Designated Runner (3/1)
Place:4Simply Smiles (7/2)
Show:3Scotlynn Rae (8/1)
Other contenders:5Riveralation (10/1), 7Omache Girl (6/1), 6Denada (10/1)
Rest of field:2Rockyscents (8/1), 8Sweet Shoppe (4/1), 9Adapted Memory (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 841357
🎯 Longshots: 319264578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Sir Argento (5/2)
Place:4It's Time (4/1)
Show:5Tavernelle (3/1)
Other contenders:6Rise Up And Go (6/1), 1Chancellors Boom (8/1), 2Ophir Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:3Sound Cloud (15/1), 8Senor At War (15/1), 9Classy Penguin (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 756123
🎯 Longshots: 715243986
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Here's The Thing (4/1)
Place:8Shesalilrunaway (7/2)
Show:4Bacalar (5/2)
Other contenders:7Bourbon Tiger (5/1), 1Tenacious Candy (9/2), 3Hey Wilmaaa (10/1)
Rest of field:2Golden Pinup (10/1), 6Standforgrit (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 541732
🎯 Longshots: 45386721
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Naval Harbor (7/2)
Place:1Missed Call (4/1)
Show:6Bob's Sniper (6/1)
Other contenders:5Pulpits Power (9/2), 4Western Sierra (8/1), 9Too Tall To Call (8/1)
Rest of field:7Brexton (10/1), 8Pick A Lane Frank (12/1), 3Mr Memphis (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261549
🎯 Longshots: 214978356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Irish Corn (3/1)
Place:8Draw The Foul (7/2)
Show:1Fordy G (6/1)
Other contenders:4Smiling Goodbye (6/1), 2Ain't No Sissy (4/1), 3Winds Of Freedom (10/1)
Rest of field:7Mattawa N That (12/1), 5Littlequeenofmean (15/1), 9Om Fire (20/1), 10Debt Monger (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 698423
🎯 Longshots: 36784295110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $8,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Time Ticker (2/1)
Place:6Golden River (4/1)
Show:7Riding By (7/2)
Other contenders:1Rhodium Runner (8/1), 5No Ordinary Tiger (6/1), 8Twirling Derby (10/1)
Rest of field:3Fortyshadesoftiger (12/1), 4Y Vee R (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 526418
🎯 Longshots: 21386745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:1Designated Runner (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -34%
Place:4Simply Smiles (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -36%
Show:3Scotlynn Rae (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:8Sweet Shoppe (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -48%, 5Riveralation (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +27%, 7Omache Girl (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%
Rest of field:2Rockyscents (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -25%, 6Denada (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 9Adapted Memory (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Designated Runner — 18.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Designated Runner18.0% ◀Simply Smiles — 15.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Simply Smiles15.4%Scotlynn Rae — 11.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Scotlynn Rae11.8%Sweet Shoppe — 11.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Sweet Shoppe11.6%Riveralation — 11.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Riveralation11.3%Omache Girl — 10.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Omache Girl10.9%Rockyscents — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Rockyscents8.6%Denada — 7.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Denada7.6%Adapted Memory — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Adapted Memory4.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Designated Runner18.0%3/1
Simply Smiles15.4%3.5/1
Scotlynn Rae11.8%8/1
Sweet Shoppe11.6%4/1
Riveralation11.3%10/1
Omache Girl10.9%6/1
Rockyscents8.6%8/1
Denada7.6%10/1
Adapted Memory4.9%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDesignated Runner: model 18.0% vs market 19.5% (-1.5 points)Designated Runner-1.5Simply Smiles: model 15.4% vs market 17.3% (-2.0 points)Simply Smiles-2.0Scotlynn Rae: model 11.8% vs market 8.7% (+3.1 points)Scotlynn Rae+3.1Sweet Shoppe: model 11.6% vs market 15.6% (-4.0 points)Sweet Shoppe-4.0Riveralation: model 11.3% vs market 7.1% (+4.2 points)Riveralation+4.2Omache Girl: model 10.9% vs market 11.1% (-0.2 points)Omache Girl-0.2Rockyscents: model 8.6% vs market 8.7% (-0.1 points)Rockyscents-0.1Denada: model 7.6% vs market 7.1% (+0.5 points)Denada+0.5Adapted Memory: model 4.9% vs market 4.9% (+0.1 points)Adapted Memory+0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Designated Runner18.0%19.5%-1.5
Simply Smiles15.4%17.3%-2.0
Scotlynn Rae11.8%8.7%+3.1
Sweet Shoppe11.6%15.6%-4.0
Riveralation11.3%7.1%+4.2
Omache Girl10.9%11.1%-0.2
Rockyscents8.6%8.7%-0.1
Denada7.6%7.1%+0.5
Adapted Memory4.9%4.9%+0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 843572
🎯 Longshots: 319264578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:5Tavernelle (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:7Sir Argento (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Show:6Rise Up And Go (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4It's Time (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%, 1Chancellors Boom (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -39%, 3Sound Cloud (15/1) 6% · fair 29-2
Rest of field:2Ophir Gold (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -44%, 9Classy Penguin (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%, 8Senor At War (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tavernelle — 21.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Tavernelle21.6% ◀Sir Argento — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sir Argento20.6%Rise Up And Go — 16.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Rise Up And Go16.3%It'S Time — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1It'S Time15.1%Chancellors Boom — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Chancellors Boom7.0%Sound Cloud — 6.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Sound Cloud6.4%Ophir Gold — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Ophir Gold5.3%Classy Penguin — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Classy Penguin4.5%Senor At War — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Senor At War3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tavernelle21.6%3/1
Sir Argento20.6%2.5/1
Rise Up And Go16.3%6/1
It'S Time15.1%4/1
Chancellors Boom7.0%8/1
Sound Cloud6.4%15/1
Ophir Gold5.3%10/1
Classy Penguin4.5%12/1
Senor At War3.2%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTavernelle: model 21.6% vs market 19.5% (+2.1 points)Tavernelle+2.1Sir Argento: model 20.6% vs market 22.3% (-1.7 points)Sir Argento-1.7Rise Up And Go: model 16.3% vs market 11.1% (+5.1 points)Rise Up And Go+5.1It'S Time: model 15.1% vs market 15.6% (-0.5 points)It'S Time-0.5Chancellors Boom: model 7.0% vs market 8.7% (-1.6 points)Chancellors Boom-1.6Sound Cloud: model 6.4% vs market 4.9% (+1.5 points)Sound Cloud+1.5Ophir Gold: model 5.3% vs market 7.1% (-1.8 points)Ophir Gold-1.8Classy Penguin: model 4.5% vs market 6.0% (-1.5 points)Classy Penguin-1.5Senor At War: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Senor At War-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tavernelle21.6%19.5%+2.1
Sir Argento20.6%22.3%-1.7
Rise Up And Go16.3%11.1%+5.1
It'S Time15.1%15.6%-0.5
Chancellors Boom7.0%8.7%-1.6
Sound Cloud6.4%4.9%+1.5
Ophir Gold5.3%7.1%-1.8
Classy Penguin4.5%6.0%-1.5
Senor At War3.2%4.9%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 576132
🎯 Longshots: 715243986
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:8Shesalilrunaway (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:5Here's The Thing (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:4Bacalar (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -48%
Other contenders:1Tenacious Candy (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%, 7Bourbon Tiger (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30%, 2Golden Pinup (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:3Hey Wilmaaa (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -51%, 6Standforgrit (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shesalilrunaway — 23.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Shesalilrunaway23.6% ◀Here'S The Thing — 21.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Here'S The Thing21.3%Bacalar — 17.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bacalar17.2%Tenacious Candy — 12.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Tenacious Candy12.3%Bourbon Tiger — 12.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Bourbon Tiger12.3%Golden Pinup — 5.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Golden Pinup5.9%Hey Wilmaaa — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Hey Wilmaaa4.6%Standforgrit — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Standforgrit2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shesalilrunaway23.6%3.5/1
Here'S The Thing21.3%4/1
Bacalar17.2%2.5/1
Tenacious Candy12.3%4.5/1
Bourbon Tiger12.3%5/1
Golden Pinup5.9%10/1
Hey Wilmaaa4.6%10/1
Standforgrit2.6%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShesalilrunaway: model 23.6% vs market 17.3% (+6.3 points)Shesalilrunaway+6.3Here'S The Thing: model 21.3% vs market 15.6% (+5.8 points)Here'S The Thing+5.8Bacalar: model 17.2% vs market 22.2% (-5.0 points)Bacalar-5.0Tenacious Candy: model 12.3% vs market 14.1% (-1.8 points)Tenacious Candy-1.8Bourbon Tiger: model 12.3% vs market 13.0% (-0.6 points)Bourbon Tiger-0.6Golden Pinup: model 5.9% vs market 7.1% (-1.1 points)Golden Pinup-1.1Hey Wilmaaa: model 4.6% vs market 7.1% (-2.4 points)Hey Wilmaaa-2.4Standforgrit: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Standforgrit-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shesalilrunaway23.6%17.3%+6.3
Here'S The Thing21.3%15.6%+5.8
Bacalar17.2%22.2%-5.0
Tenacious Candy12.3%14.1%-1.8
Bourbon Tiger12.3%13.0%-0.6
Golden Pinup5.9%7.1%-1.1
Hey Wilmaaa4.6%7.1%-2.4
Standforgrit2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 541236
🎯 Longshots: 45386721
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:2Naval Harbor (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:1Missed Call (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Show:6Bob's Sniper (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:5Pulpits Power (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -40%, 7Brexton (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 9Too Tall To Call (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:8Pick A Lane Frank (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 4Western Sierra (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47%, 3Mr Memphis (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -62%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Naval Harbor — 21.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Naval Harbor21.9% ◀Missed Call — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Missed Call15.1%Bob'S Sniper — 15.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Bob'S Sniper15.1%Pulpits Power — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Pulpits Power11.8%Brexton — 9.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Brexton9.6%Too Tall To Call — 9.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Too Tall To Call9.3%Pick A Lane Frank — 7.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Pick A Lane Frank7.2%Western Sierra — 6.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Western Sierra6.2%Mr Memphis — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Mr Memphis3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Naval Harbor21.9%3.5/1
Missed Call15.1%4/1
Bob'S Sniper15.1%6/1
Pulpits Power11.8%4.5/1
Brexton9.6%10/1
Too Tall To Call9.3%8/1
Pick A Lane Frank7.2%12/1
Western Sierra6.2%8/1
Mr Memphis3.7%10/1
🌧️ Off-track: 621579
🎯 Longshots: 214978356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8Draw The Foul (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:6Irish Corn (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%
Show:2Ain't No Sissy (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:1Fordy G (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 4Smiling Goodbye (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -25%, 3Winds Of Freedom (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:7Mattawa N That (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 5Littlequeenofmean (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%, 10Debt Monger (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -39%, 9Om Fire (20/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -55%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Draw The Foul — 24.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Draw The Foul24.9% ◀Irish Corn — 16.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Irish Corn16.5%Ain'T No Sissy — 14.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Ain'T No Sissy14.2%Fordy G — 13.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Fordy G13.5%Smiling Goodbye — 11.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Smiling Goodbye11.1%Winds Of Freedom — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Winds Of Freedom6.1%Mattawa N That — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Mattawa N That4.9%Littlequeenofmean — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Littlequeenofmean3.6%Debt Monger — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Debt Monger3.0%Om Fire — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Om Fire2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Draw The Foul24.9%3.5/1
Irish Corn16.5%3/1
Ain'T No Sissy14.2%4/1
Fordy G13.5%6/1
Smiling Goodbye11.1%6/1
Winds Of Freedom6.1%10/1
Mattawa N That4.9%12/1
Littlequeenofmean3.6%15/1
Debt Monger3.0%20/1
Om Fire2.2%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDraw The Foul: model 24.9% vs market 17.3% (+7.6 points)Draw The Foul+7.6Irish Corn: model 16.5% vs market 19.5% (-2.9 points)Irish Corn-2.9Ain'T No Sissy: model 14.2% vs market 15.6% (-1.4 points)Ain'T No Sissy-1.4Fordy G: model 13.5% vs market 11.1% (+2.3 points)Fordy G+2.3Smiling Goodbye: model 11.1% vs market 11.1% (-0.0 points)Smiling Goodbye-0.0Winds Of Freedom: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)Winds Of Freedom-1.0Mattawa N That: model 4.9% vs market 6.0% (-1.1 points)Mattawa N That-1.1Littlequeenofmean: model 3.6% vs market 4.9% (-1.2 points)Littlequeenofmean-1.2Debt Monger: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.8 points)Debt Monger-0.8Om Fire: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Om Fire-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Draw The Foul24.9%17.3%+7.6
Irish Corn16.5%19.5%-2.9
Ain'T No Sissy14.2%15.6%-1.4
Fordy G13.5%11.1%+2.3
Smiling Goodbye11.1%11.1%-0.0
Winds Of Freedom6.1%7.1%-1.0
Mattawa N That4.9%6.0%-1.1
Littlequeenofmean3.6%4.9%-1.2
Debt Monger3.0%3.7%-0.8
Om Fire2.2%3.7%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 6982410
🎯 Longshots: 36784295110
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Time Ticker (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:6Golden River (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:7Riding By (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:5No Ordinary Tiger (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -54%, 3Fortyshadesoftiger (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 8Twirling Derby (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:1Rhodium Runner (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -46%, 4Y Vee R (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -40%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Time Ticker — 29.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Time Ticker29.5% ◀Golden River — 20.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Golden River20.6%Riding By — 18.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Riding By18.5%No Ordinary Tiger — 7.1% win probability, morning line 6/1No Ordinary Tiger7.1%Fortyshadesoftiger — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Fortyshadesoftiger6.8%Twirling Derby — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Twirling Derby6.5%Rhodium Runner — 6.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Rhodium Runner6.4%Y Vee R — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Y Vee R4.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Time Ticker29.5%2/1
Golden River20.6%4/1
Riding By18.5%3.5/1
No Ordinary Tiger7.1%6/1
Fortyshadesoftiger6.8%12/1
Twirling Derby6.5%10/1
Rhodium Runner6.4%8/1
Y Vee R4.8%12/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTime Ticker: model 29.5% vs market 26.6% (+2.9 points)Time Ticker+2.9Golden River: model 20.6% vs market 15.9% (+4.6 points)Golden River+4.6Riding By: model 18.5% vs market 17.7% (+0.8 points)Riding By+0.8No Ordinary Tiger: model 7.1% vs market 11.4% (-4.3 points)No Ordinary Tiger-4.3Fortyshadesoftiger: model 6.8% vs market 6.1% (+0.6 points)Fortyshadesoftiger+0.6Twirling Derby: model 6.5% vs market 7.2% (-0.8 points)Twirling Derby-0.8Rhodium Runner: model 6.4% vs market 8.9% (-2.5 points)Rhodium Runner-2.5Y Vee R: model 4.8% vs market 6.1% (-1.3 points)Y Vee R-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Time Ticker29.5%26.6%+2.9
Golden River20.6%15.9%+4.6
Riding By18.5%17.7%+0.8
No Ordinary Tiger7.1%11.4%-4.3
Fortyshadesoftiger6.8%6.1%+0.6
Twirling Derby6.5%7.2%-0.8
Rhodium Runner6.4%8.9%-2.5
Y Vee R4.8%6.1%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 541638
🎯 Longshots: 21386745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Grants Pass — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 57 graded races at Grants Pass, 2026-06-21 to 2026-09-28.

$0$2$4$7$9Our top pick: $6.99 from 17 racesOur top pick$6.99Morning-line favourite: $4.78 from 21 racesMorning-line favourite$4.78

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$6.9917
Morning-line favourite$4.7821
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:1Designated Runner (3/1)
Place:4Simply Smiles (7/2)
Show:3Scotlynn Rae (8/1)
Other contenders:7Omache Girl (6/1), 2Rockyscents (8/1), 8Sweet Shoppe (4/1)
Rest of field:9Adapted Memory (15/1), 5Riveralation (10/1), 6Denada (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 184372
🎯 Longshots: 319264578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:7Sir Argento (5/2)
Place:5Tavernelle (3/1)
Show:4It's Time (4/1)
Other contenders:6Rise Up And Go (6/1), 9Classy Penguin (12/1), 2Ophir Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:1Chancellors Boom (8/1), 3Sound Cloud (15/1), 8Senor At War (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 756942
🎯 Longshots: 715243986
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5Here's The Thing (4/1)
Place:7Bourbon Tiger (5/1)
Show:4Bacalar (5/2)
Other contenders:8Shesalilrunaway (7/2), 3Hey Wilmaaa (10/1), 1Tenacious Candy (9/2)
Rest of field:6Standforgrit (20/1), 2Golden Pinup (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 547316
🎯 Longshots: 45386721
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:5Pulpits Power (9/2)
Place:1Missed Call (4/1)
Show:2Naval Harbor (7/2)
Other contenders:9Too Tall To Call (8/1), 6Bob's Sniper (6/1), 4Western Sierra (8/1)
Rest of field:7Brexton (10/1), 3Mr Memphis (10/1), 8Pick A Lane Frank (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 521964
🎯 Longshots: 214978356
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Ain't No Sissy (4/1)
Place:4Smiling Goodbye (6/1)
Show:6Irish Corn (3/1)
Other contenders:3Winds Of Freedom (10/1), 8Draw The Foul (7/2), 1Fordy G (6/1)
Rest of field:7Mattawa N That (12/1), 5Littlequeenofmean (15/1), 9Om Fire (20/1), 10Debt Monger (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 269483
🎯 Longshots: 36784295110
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Time Ticker (2/1)
Place:6Golden River (4/1)
Show:7Riding By (7/2)
Other contenders:5No Ordinary Tiger (6/1), 1Rhodium Runner (8/1), 3Fortyshadesoftiger (12/1)
Rest of field:8Twirling Derby (10/1), 4Y Vee R (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256143
🎯 Longshots: 21386745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #4, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.41 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
25Riveralation10/1—11.4%+22.4%0.56%$0.56
TOTAL across 1 play:0.6%$0.56
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:1Designated Runner (3/1)
Place:4Simply Smiles (7/2)
Show:3Scotlynn Rae (8/1)
Other contenders:2Rockyscents (8/1), 9Adapted Memory (15/1), 8Sweet Shoppe (4/1)
Rest of field:7Omache Girl (6/1), 5Riveralation (10/1), 6Denada (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 148327
🎯 Longshots: 319264578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:7Sir Argento (5/2)
Place:5Tavernelle (3/1)
Show:4It's Time (4/1)
Other contenders:9Classy Penguin (12/1), 6Rise Up And Go (6/1), 2Ophir Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:1Chancellors Boom (8/1), 3Sound Cloud (15/1), 8Senor At War (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754962
🎯 Longshots: 715243986
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5Here's The Thing (4/1)
Place:4Bacalar (5/2)
Show:8Shesalilrunaway (7/2)
Other contenders:7Bourbon Tiger (5/1), 3Hey Wilmaaa (10/1), 1Tenacious Candy (9/2)
Rest of field:2Golden Pinup (10/1), 6Standforgrit (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 547318
🎯 Longshots: 45386721
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:9Too Tall To Call (8/1)
Place:2Naval Harbor (7/2)
Show:1Missed Call (4/1)
Other contenders:5Pulpits Power (9/2), 4Western Sierra (8/1), 8Pick A Lane Frank (12/1)
Rest of field:6Bob's Sniper (6/1), 7Brexton (10/1), 3Mr Memphis (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 921546
🎯 Longshots: 214978356
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:4Smiling Goodbye (6/1)
Place:2Ain't No Sissy (4/1)
Show:8Draw The Foul (7/2)
Other contenders:6Irish Corn (3/1), 3Winds Of Freedom (10/1), 5Littlequeenofmean (15/1)
Rest of field:7Mattawa N That (12/1), 1Fordy G (6/1), 9Om Fire (20/1), 10Debt Monger (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 648239
🎯 Longshots: 36784295110
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Time Ticker (2/1)
Place:6Golden River (4/1)
Show:7Riding By (7/2)
Other contenders:5No Ordinary Tiger (6/1), 3Fortyshadesoftiger (12/1), 4Y Vee R (12/1)
Rest of field:8Twirling Derby (10/1), 1Rhodium Runner (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 265743
🎯 Longshots: 21386745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:1Designated Runner (3/1)
Place:2Rockyscents (8/1)
Show:4Simply Smiles (7/2)
Other contenders:3Scotlynn Rae (8/1), 7Omache Girl (6/1), 5Riveralation (10/1)
Rest of field:8Sweet Shoppe (4/1), 9Adapted Memory (15/1), 6Denada (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124387
🎯 Longshots: 319264578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $7,200
Win:7Sir Argento (5/2)
Place:5Tavernelle (3/1)
Show:4It's Time (4/1)
Other contenders:6Rise Up And Go (6/1), 1Chancellors Boom (8/1), 2Ophir Gold (10/1)
Rest of field:9Classy Penguin (12/1), 3Sound Cloud (15/1), 8Senor At War (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754612
🎯 Longshots: 715243986
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5Here's The Thing (4/1)
Place:4Bacalar (5/2)
Show:7Bourbon Tiger (5/1)
Other contenders:8Shesalilrunaway (7/2), 1Tenacious Candy (9/2), 3Hey Wilmaaa (10/1)
Rest of field:2Golden Pinup (10/1), 6Standforgrit (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 547138
🎯 Longshots: 45386721
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:1Missed Call (4/1)
Place:2Naval Harbor (7/2)
Show:5Pulpits Power (9/2)
Other contenders:6Bob's Sniper (6/1), 4Western Sierra (8/1), 9Too Tall To Call (8/1)
Rest of field:7Brexton (10/1), 3Mr Memphis (10/1), 8Pick A Lane Frank (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 216549
🎯 Longshots: 214978356
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Ain't No Sissy (4/1)
Place:6Irish Corn (3/1)
Show:4Smiling Goodbye (6/1)
Other contenders:1Fordy G (6/1), 8Draw The Foul (7/2), 3Winds Of Freedom (10/1)
Rest of field:7Mattawa N That (12/1), 5Littlequeenofmean (15/1), 9Om Fire (20/1), 10Debt Monger (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 624983
🎯 Longshots: 36784295110
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:2Time Ticker (2/1)
Place:6Golden River (4/1)
Show:7Riding By (7/2)
Other contenders:5No Ordinary Tiger (6/1), 1Rhodium Runner (8/1), 8Twirling Derby (10/1)
Rest of field:4Y Vee R (12/1), 3Fortyshadesoftiger (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256178
🎯 Longshots: 21386745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#4,#3 (45%) / R3: #5,#7,#6 (58%) / R4: #8,#5,#4 (62%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#7,#6 (58%) / R4: #8,#5,#4 (62%) / R5: #2,#1,#6 (52%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #8,#5,#4 (62%) / R5: #2,#1,#6 (52%) / R6: #8,#6,#2 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#4,#3 (45%) / R3: #5,#7,#6 (58%) / R4: #8,#5,#4 (62%) / R5: #2,#1,#6 (52%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 9%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #5,#7,#6 (58%) / R4: #8,#5,#4 (62%) / R5: #2,#1,#6 (52%) / R6: #8,#6,#2 (56%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADAPTED MEMORYAIN'T NO SISSYBACALARBOB'S SNIPERBOURBON TIGER
CHANCELLORS BOOMCLASSY PENGUINCPR IM A EAGLECPR MYFAVORITEWAGONDA BROS CARTEL
DASH TO THE FLASH TDEBT MONGERDENADADESIGNATED RUNNERDRAW THE FOUL
FIVEBARSDARKBEAUTYFOOSES FLYERFORDY GFORTYSHADESOFTIGERGOLDEN PINUP
HERE'S THE THINGHEY WILMAAAHUNNY MOONIRISH CORNIT'S TIME
LITTLEQUEENOFMEANMATTAWA N THATMISSED CALLMOON SHADOW 12MR MEMPHIS
NAVAL HARBORNO ORDINARY TIGEROM FIREOMACHE GIRLONE SWEET LIPPY
PAINT BIG DREAMSPICK A LANE FRANKPULPITS POWERRHODIUM RUNNERRIDING BY
RIVERALATIONROCKYSCENTSSCOTLYNN RAESENOR AT WARSHESALILRUNAWAY
SIR ARGENTOSMILING GOODBYESOUND CLOUDSTANDFORGRITSWEET SHOPPE
TENACIOUS CANDYTF ONE DASHN LAJOLLATIME TICKERTOO TALL TO CALLTWIRLING DERBY
WINDS OF FREEDOMY VEE R

 


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