Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Los Alamitos, October 4, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Wild King (7/5)
Place:6Scoop Of Chocolate (5/1)
Show:3Gold Proof (5/2)
Other contenders:5Effort (6/1), 1Bail Me Out Patty (6/1)
Rest of field:4Rachel's Gig (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263514
🎯 Longshots: 243615
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Bet The Om (9/5)
Place:3Mandela Effect (7/2)
Show:2Careful Colin (5/1)
Other contenders:1Pine Run (5/2), 4Easy Breezy (6/1)
Rest of field:7Fuego Del Sol (20/1), 5Warmhearted (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634215
🎯 Longshots: 6731524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Wild King (7/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:3Gold Proof (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -44%
Show:6Scoop Of Chocolate (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:1Bail Me Out Patty (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Effort (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:4Rachel's Gig (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Wild King — 39.6% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Wild King39.6% ◀Gold Proof — 18.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gold Proof18.3%Scoop Of Chocolate — 13.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Scoop Of Chocolate13.4%Bail Me Out Patty — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Bail Me Out Patty11.7%Effort — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Effort9.8%Rachel'S Gig — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Rachel'S Gig7.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Wild King39.6%1.4/1
Gold Proof18.3%2.5/1
Scoop Of Chocolate13.4%5/1
Bail Me Out Patty11.7%6/1
Effort9.8%6/1
Rachel'S Gig7.3%8/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWild King: model 39.6% vs market 32.9% (+6.7 points)Wild King+6.7Gold Proof: model 18.3% vs market 22.6% (-4.3 points)Gold Proof-4.3Scoop Of Chocolate: model 13.4% vs market 13.2% (+0.2 points)Scoop Of Chocolate+0.2Bail Me Out Patty: model 11.7% vs market 11.3% (+0.4 points)Bail Me Out Patty+0.4Effort: model 9.8% vs market 11.3% (-1.5 points)Effort-1.5Rachel'S Gig: model 7.3% vs market 8.8% (-1.4 points)Rachel'S Gig-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Wild King39.6%32.9%+6.7
Gold Proof18.3%22.6%-4.3
Scoop Of Chocolate13.4%13.2%+0.2
Bail Me Out Patty11.7%11.3%+0.4
Effort9.8%11.3%-1.5
Rachel'S Gig7.3%8.8%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 236154
🎯 Longshots: 243615
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:6Bet The Om (9/5) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:3Mandela Effect (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:2Careful Colin (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:1Pine Run (5/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -64%, 4Easy Breezy (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -59%
Rest of field:7Fuego Del Sol (20/1) 4% · fair 45-2, 5Warmhearted (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bet The Om — 37.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Bet The Om37.2% ◀Mandela Effect — 20.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mandela Effect20.1%Careful Colin — 15.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Careful Colin15.3%Pine Run — 12.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Pine Run12.6%Easy Breezy — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Easy Breezy6.5%Fuego Del Sol — 4.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Fuego Del Sol4.2%Warmhearted — 4.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Warmhearted4.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bet The Om37.2%1.8/1
Mandela Effect20.1%3.5/1
Careful Colin15.3%5/1
Pine Run12.6%2.5/1
Easy Breezy6.5%6/1
Fuego Del Sol4.2%20/1
Warmhearted4.1%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBet The Om: model 37.2% vs market 27.8% (+9.4 points)Bet The Om+9.4Mandela Effect: model 20.1% vs market 17.3% (+2.8 points)Mandela Effect+2.8Careful Colin: model 15.3% vs market 13.0% (+2.3 points)Careful Colin+2.3Pine Run: model 12.6% vs market 22.2% (-9.6 points)Pine Run-9.6Easy Breezy: model 6.5% vs market 11.1% (-4.7 points)Easy Breezy-4.7Fuego Del Sol: model 4.2% vs market 3.7% (+0.5 points)Fuego Del Sol+0.5Warmhearted: model 4.1% vs market 4.9% (-0.7 points)Warmhearted-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bet The Om37.2%27.8%+9.4
Mandela Effect20.1%17.3%+2.8
Careful Colin15.3%13.0%+2.3
Pine Run12.6%22.2%-9.6
Easy Breezy6.5%11.1%-4.7
Fuego Del Sol4.2%3.7%+0.5
Warmhearted4.1%4.9%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 463215
🎯 Longshots: 6731524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Wild King (7/5)
Place:6Scoop Of Chocolate (5/1)
Show:3Gold Proof (5/2)
Other contenders:4Rachel's Gig (8/1), 5Effort (6/1)
Rest of field:1Bail Me Out Patty (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263451
🎯 Longshots: 243615
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:6Bet The Om (9/5)
Place:3Mandela Effect (7/2)
Show:1Pine Run (5/2)
Other contenders:2Careful Colin (5/1), 4Easy Breezy (6/1)
Rest of field:7Fuego Del Sol (20/1), 5Warmhearted (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631427
🎯 Longshots: 6731524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.42 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
57Fuego Del Sol20/1—5.3%+9.6%0.12%$0.12
TOTAL across 1 play:0.1%$0.12
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Wild King (7/5)
Place:6Scoop Of Chocolate (5/1)
Show:3Gold Proof (5/2)
Other contenders:4Rachel's Gig (8/1), 1Bail Me Out Patty (6/1)
Rest of field:5Effort (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263415
🎯 Longshots: 243615
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:6Bet The Om (9/5)
Place:3Mandela Effect (7/2)
Show:1Pine Run (5/2)
Other contenders:2Careful Colin (5/1), 4Easy Breezy (6/1)
Rest of field:7Fuego Del Sol (20/1), 5Warmhearted (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631245
🎯 Longshots: 6731524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Wild King (7/5)
Place:6Scoop Of Chocolate (5/1)
Show:3Gold Proof (5/2)
Other contenders:4Rachel's Gig (8/1), 5Effort (6/1)
Rest of field:1Bail Me Out Patty (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263451
🎯 Longshots: 243615
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:6Bet The Om (9/5)
Place:3Mandela Effect (7/2)
Show:4Easy Breezy (6/1)
Other contenders:2Careful Colin (5/1), 1Pine Run (5/2)
Rest of field:7Fuego Del Sol (20/1), 5Warmhearted (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 643217
🎯 Longshots: 6731524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALOHA DREAMINBAIL ME OUT PATTYBET THE OMBLAME IT ON ABBYBLESSED ANGEL
BUCKY'S BOYCAREFUL COLINCROSSED THE LINEDADDYGAVEITTOMEDARLING JULIA
EASY BREEZYEFFORTELICIT FAVORITEENDEEFREE RUNN
FUN TO RUNGIFTED DIVAGOLD PROOFGUNZ LOADEDINTEREST FREE
IT IS WRITTENJESS ON CANVASKICKINGITKYATHOSLEGAL FICTION
MANDELA EFFECTMIZUKI HUNTINGPEEPAPELAOSSECRETMONGOOSEPINE RUN
POLITICAL COMMENTPOP ROXRACHEL'S GIGROSE BOWLRUMBA
SCORCHING HOTSKILLEESOCIAL GENIUSSOMEDAY LADYSOO BRONX
THE DUDE ABIDESTOULOUSE DETRACTWISTED HUMORVAL EMPIREWARMHEARTED
WILLOW COVE

 


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