Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Woodbine, October 11, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Will Win (2/1)
Place:6Aterya (6/1)
Show:7Named Firey (5/2)
Other contenders:5Dwight (7/2), 3Makinmommaproud (8/1)
Rest of field:2Stormover The Nile (10/1), 4Stella Point (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516732
🎯 Longshots: 1675234
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Audi's World (4/5)
Place:4Kairos Moment (4/1)
Show:6Celestial Heart (8/1)
Other contenders:8Prime Rate (6/1), 5Messy Riding (12/1), 2High Beam (10/1)
Rest of field:7Proudly Canadian (20/1), 3Metro King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652314
🎯 Longshots: 15672843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:1Peja Du (2/1)
Place:7British Artillery (5/2)
Show:6Quiet Intent (7/2)
Other contenders:4Lasting Silence (6/1), 2Little Red Domi (8/1), 8Alley Oop Johnny (12/1)
Rest of field:5True Shot (20/1), 3Prince Of Thieves (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 657124
🎯 Longshots: 21768435
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Kekoa (5/2)
Place:1Webslinger (2/1)
Show:4Eyes On The King (5/1)
Other contenders:6Magical Factor (7/2), 3Sedburys Ghost (4/1)
Rest of field:5Fearless Soldier (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162543
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:2Zucchero (2/1)
Place:7Timeframe (3/1)
Show:5Mac Gowan (6/1)
Other contenders:9Padraig (4/1), 6Bee Me (8/1), 3Digital Security (12/1)
Rest of field:8Scuderia (10/1), 4Gus's Drumbeet (20/1), 1Bank On Big Winner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 728563
🎯 Longshots: 826375491
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3True North Star (3/1)
Place:6Kingslayer (7/2)
Show:7Ruby Rosso (6/1)
Other contenders:9Time For Action (8/1), 12Merckx (12/1), 1Samaritan Trail (15/1), 4Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mona (10/1), 8Jazzy Scoops (20/1), 11Colonels Influence (15/1), 10Worthy Park (20/1), 5Arkin (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 367914
🎯 Longshots: 361249781211105
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:3Quipster (2/1)
Place:2Odenkirk (3/1)
Show:4Uncle Dodo (5/2)
Other contenders:1Verge (7/2), 5Unbridled Freedom (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21534
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:7Lamirada (1/1)
Place:1Cattrall (5/2)
Show:6Hope Is A Breeze (6/1)
Other contenders:5Epic Affair (8/1), 4Traction Park (8/1)
Rest of field:2From Time To Time (10/1), 3Madeleine Swann (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361547
🎯 Longshots: 7154263
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:6Hard Right (2/1)
Place:4Very Special (5/2)
Show:3Auntie's Bambino (9/2)
Other contenders:2Smokin Empire (6/1), 5Hello Stranger (20/1), 9Mo' Script (10/1)
Rest of field:8Silver Coast (12/1), 1Comet's Edge (12/1), 7Forever Frosty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 356247
🎯 Longshots: 465239871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:6Lady Rainicorn (2/1)
Place:2Closing Appeal (7/2)
Show:7Olivia's Melody (4/1)
Other contenders:8Butterfly Billie (6/1), 1Tan Toast (8/1), 3Greenwich Pike (12/1)
Rest of field:4Malibu Betty (10/1), 9Reload Baba (20/1), 5Bling D'money Home (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365472
🎯 Longshots: 163294785
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Woodbine — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 171 graded races at Woodbine, 2026-09-06 to 2026-10-09.

0%10%20%30%39%Our top pick: 31.6% from 171 racesOur top pick31.6%Morning-line favourite: 28.7% from 171 racesMorning-line favourite28.7%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.6%171
Morning-line favourite28.7%171
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:1Will Win (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:6Aterya (6/1) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +71%
Show:7Named Firey (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:5Dwight (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -44%, 3Makinmommaproud (8/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -64%
Rest of field:2Stormover The Nile (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -56%, 4Stella Point (20/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -61%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Will Win — 33.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Will Win33.8% ◀Aterya — 22.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Aterya22.1%Named Firey — 19.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Named Firey19.9%Dwight — 13.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Dwight13.9%Makinmommaproud — 4.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Makinmommaproud4.3%Stormover The Nile — 4.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Stormover The Nile4.2%Stella Point — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Stella Point1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Will Win33.8%2/1
Aterya22.1%6/1
Named Firey19.9%2.5/1
Dwight13.9%3.5/1
Makinmommaproud4.3%8/1
Stormover The Nile4.2%10/1
Stella Point1.9%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWill Win: model 33.8% vs market 27.0% (+6.7 points)Will Win+6.7Aterya: model 22.1% vs market 11.6% (+10.6 points)Aterya+10.6Named Firey: model 19.9% vs market 23.2% (-3.3 points)Named Firey-3.3Dwight: model 13.9% vs market 18.0% (-4.1 points)Dwight-4.1Makinmommaproud: model 4.3% vs market 9.0% (-4.7 points)Makinmommaproud-4.7Stormover The Nile: model 4.2% vs market 7.4% (-3.2 points)Stormover The Nile-3.2Stella Point: model 1.9% vs market 3.9% (-2.0 points)Stella Point-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Will Win33.8%27.0%+6.7
Aterya22.1%11.6%+10.6
Named Firey19.9%23.2%-3.3
Dwight13.9%18.0%-4.1
Makinmommaproud4.3%9.0%-4.7
Stormover The Nile4.2%7.4%-3.2
Stella Point1.9%3.9%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 561732
🎯 Longshots: 1675234
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:1Audi's World (4/5) 52% · fair 5-5
Place:4Kairos Moment (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Show:5Messy Riding (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Other contenders:6Celestial Heart (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -44%, 8Prime Rate (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -62%, 2High Beam (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -38%
Rest of field:7Proudly Canadian (20/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 3Metro King (20/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -50%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Audi'S World — 51.8% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Audi'S World51.8% ◀Kairos Moment — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Kairos Moment15.1%Messy Riding — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Messy Riding6.8%Celestial Heart — 6.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Celestial Heart6.5%Prime Rate — 6.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Prime Rate6.0%High Beam — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1High Beam5.8%Proudly Canadian — 5.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Proudly Canadian5.5%Metro King — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Metro King2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Audi'S World51.8%0.8/1
Kairos Moment15.1%4/1
Messy Riding6.8%12/1
Celestial Heart6.5%8/1
Prime Rate6.0%6/1
High Beam5.8%10/1
Proudly Canadian5.5%20/1
Metro King2.4%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAudi'S World: model 51.8% vs market 43.7% (+8.2 points)Audi'S World+8.2Kairos Moment: model 15.1% vs market 15.7% (-0.6 points)Kairos Moment-0.6Messy Riding: model 6.8% vs market 6.0% (+0.8 points)Messy Riding+0.8Celestial Heart: model 6.5% vs market 8.7% (-2.2 points)Celestial Heart-2.2Prime Rate: model 6.0% vs market 11.2% (-5.3 points)Prime Rate-5.3High Beam: model 5.8% vs market 7.1% (-1.3 points)High Beam-1.3Proudly Canadian: model 5.5% vs market 3.7% (+1.8 points)Proudly Canadian+1.8Metro King: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Metro King-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Audi'S World51.8%43.7%+8.2
Kairos Moment15.1%15.7%-0.6
Messy Riding6.8%6.0%+0.8
Celestial Heart6.5%8.7%-2.2
Prime Rate6.0%11.2%-5.3
High Beam5.8%7.1%-1.3
Proudly Canadian5.5%3.7%+1.8
Metro King2.4%3.7%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 652314
🎯 Longshots: 15672843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:1Peja Du (2/1) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -46%
Place:7British Artillery (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Show:6Quiet Intent (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:4Lasting Silence (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +33%, 2Little Red Domi (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Alley Oop Johnny (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:3Prince Of Thieves (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 5True Shot (20/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -50%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Peja Du — 21.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Peja Du21.2% ◀British Artillery — 20.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1British Artillery20.5%Quiet Intent — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Quiet Intent18.6%Lasting Silence — 18.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Lasting Silence18.2%Little Red Domi — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Little Red Domi10.2%Alley Oop Johnny — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Alley Oop Johnny6.3%Prince Of Thieves — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Prince Of Thieves2.6%True Shot — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1True Shot2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Peja Du21.2%2/1
British Artillery20.5%2.5/1
Quiet Intent18.6%3.5/1
Lasting Silence18.2%6/1
Little Red Domi10.2%8/1
Alley Oop Johnny6.3%12/1
Prince Of Thieves2.6%20/1
True Shot2.4%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPeja Du: model 21.2% vs market 26.3% (-5.1 points)Peja Du-5.1British Artillery: model 20.5% vs market 22.5% (-2.0 points)British Artillery-2.0Quiet Intent: model 18.6% vs market 17.5% (+1.1 points)Quiet Intent+1.1Lasting Silence: model 18.2% vs market 11.3% (+6.9 points)Lasting Silence+6.9Little Red Domi: model 10.2% vs market 8.8% (+1.4 points)Little Red Domi+1.4Alley Oop Johnny: model 6.3% vs market 6.1% (+0.2 points)Alley Oop Johnny+0.2Prince Of Thieves: model 2.6% vs market 3.8% (-1.1 points)Prince Of Thieves-1.1True Shot: model 2.4% vs market 3.8% (-1.3 points)True Shot-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Peja Du21.2%26.3%-5.1
British Artillery20.5%22.5%-2.0
Quiet Intent18.6%17.5%+1.1
Lasting Silence18.2%11.3%+6.9
Little Red Domi10.2%8.8%+1.4
Alley Oop Johnny6.3%6.1%+0.2
Prince Of Thieves2.6%3.8%-1.1
True Shot2.4%3.8%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 657124
🎯 Longshots: 21768435
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:1Webslinger (2/1) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:2Kekoa (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -26%
Show:6Magical Factor (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:4Eyes On The King (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 3Sedburys Ghost (4/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -72%
Rest of field:5Fearless Soldier (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Webslinger — 34.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Webslinger34.5% ◀Kekoa — 22.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Kekoa22.9%Magical Factor — 17.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Magical Factor17.8%Eyes On The King — 14.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Eyes On The King14.9%Sedburys Ghost — 6.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Sedburys Ghost6.6%Fearless Soldier — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Fearless Soldier3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Webslinger34.5%2/1
Kekoa22.9%2.5/1
Magical Factor17.8%3.5/1
Eyes On The King14.9%5/1
Sedburys Ghost6.6%4/1
Fearless Soldier3.2%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWebslinger: model 34.5% vs market 26.2% (+8.3 points)Webslinger+8.3Kekoa: model 22.9% vs market 22.5% (+0.4 points)Kekoa+0.4Magical Factor: model 17.8% vs market 17.5% (+0.3 points)Magical Factor+0.3Eyes On The King: model 14.9% vs market 13.1% (+1.8 points)Eyes On The King+1.8Sedburys Ghost: model 6.6% vs market 15.7% (-9.1 points)Sedburys Ghost-9.1Fearless Soldier: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Fearless Soldier-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Webslinger34.5%26.2%+8.3
Kekoa22.9%22.5%+0.4
Magical Factor17.8%17.5%+0.3
Eyes On The King14.9%13.1%+1.8
Sedburys Ghost6.6%15.7%-9.1
Fearless Soldier3.2%4.9%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 162543
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:2Zucchero (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -42%
Place:5Mac Gowan (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:7Timeframe (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -43%
Other contenders:9Padraig (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -28%, 3Digital Security (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 6Bee Me (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:8Scuderia (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 4Gus's Drumbeet (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 1Bank On Big Winner (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Zucchero — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Zucchero22.6% ◀Mac Gowan — 16.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Mac Gowan16.1%Timeframe — 16.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Timeframe16.0%Padraig — 15.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Padraig15.3%Digital Security — 8.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Digital Security8.1%Bee Me — 7.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Bee Me7.7%Scuderia — 7.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Scuderia7.5%Gus'S Drumbeet — 3.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Gus'S Drumbeet3.9%Bank On Big Winner — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Bank On Big Winner2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Zucchero22.6%2/1
Mac Gowan16.1%6/1
Timeframe16.0%3/1
Padraig15.3%4/1
Digital Security8.1%12/1
Bee Me7.7%8/1
Scuderia7.5%10/1
Gus'S Drumbeet3.9%20/1
Bank On Big Winner2.9%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherZucchero: model 22.6% vs market 25.6% (-3.0 points)Zucchero-3.0Mac Gowan: model 16.1% vs market 11.0% (+5.1 points)Mac Gowan+5.1Timeframe: model 16.0% vs market 19.2% (-3.3 points)Timeframe-3.3Padraig: model 15.3% vs market 15.4% (-0.0 points)Padraig-0.0Digital Security: model 8.1% vs market 5.9% (+2.2 points)Digital Security+2.2Bee Me: model 7.7% vs market 8.5% (-0.8 points)Bee Me-0.8Scuderia: model 7.5% vs market 7.0% (+0.5 points)Scuderia+0.5Gus'S Drumbeet: model 3.9% vs market 3.7% (+0.2 points)Gus'S Drumbeet+0.2Bank On Big Winner: model 2.9% vs market 3.7% (-0.8 points)Bank On Big Winner-0.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Zucchero22.6%25.6%-3.0
Mac Gowan16.1%11.0%+5.1
Timeframe16.0%19.2%-3.3
Padraig15.3%15.4%-0.0
Digital Security8.1%5.9%+2.2
Bee Me7.7%8.5%-0.8
Scuderia7.5%7.0%+0.5
Gus'S Drumbeet3.9%3.7%+0.2
Bank On Big Winner2.9%3.7%-0.8
🌧️ Off-track: 728536
🎯 Longshots: 826375491
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3True North Star (3/1) 36% · fair 3-2 overlay +72%
Place:9Time For Action (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Show:6Kingslayer (7/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -67%
Other contenders:7Ruby Rosso (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%, 4Rose (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -33%, 1Samaritan Trail (15/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 12Merckx (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2
Rest of field:2Mona (10/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -63%, 8Jazzy Scoops (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%, 10Worthy Park (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -34%, 11Colonels Influence (15/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -62%, 5Arkin (20/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -61%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

True North Star — 36.5% win probability, morning line 3/1True North Star36.5% ◀Time For Action — 11.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Time For Action11.3%Kingslayer — 8.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Kingslayer8.5%Ruby Rosso — 7.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Ruby Rosso7.9%Rose — 7.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Rose7.8%Samaritan Trail — 7.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Samaritan Trail7.1%Merckx — 6.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Merckx6.4%Mona — 3.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Mona3.6%Jazzy Scoops — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Jazzy Scoops3.3%Worthy Park — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Worthy Park3.2%Colonels Influence — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Colonels Influence2.5%Arkin — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Arkin1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
True North Star36.5%3/1
Time For Action11.3%8/1
Kingslayer8.5%3.5/1
Ruby Rosso7.9%6/1
Rose7.8%8/1
Samaritan Trail7.1%15/1
Merckx6.4%12/1
Mona3.6%10/1
Jazzy Scoops3.3%20/1
Worthy Park3.2%20/1
Colonels Influence2.5%15/1
Arkin1.9%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTrue North Star: model 36.5% vs market 19.6% (+16.8 points)True North Star+16.8Time For Action: model 11.3% vs market 8.7% (+2.6 points)Time For Action+2.6Kingslayer: model 8.5% vs market 17.5% (-8.9 points)Kingslayer-8.9Ruby Rosso: model 7.9% vs market 11.2% (-3.3 points)Ruby Rosso-3.3Rose: model 7.8% vs market 8.7% (-1.0 points)Rose-1.0Samaritan Trail: model 7.1% vs market 4.9% (+2.2 points)Samaritan Trail+2.2Merckx: model 6.4% vs market 6.0% (+0.4 points)Merckx+0.4Mona: model 3.6% vs market 7.1% (-3.5 points)Mona-3.5Jazzy Scoops: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Jazzy Scoops-0.4Worthy Park: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.5 points)Worthy Park-0.5Colonels Influence: model 2.5% vs market 4.9% (-2.4 points)Colonels Influence-2.4Arkin: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Arkin-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
True North Star36.5%19.6%+16.8
Time For Action11.3%8.7%+2.6
Kingslayer8.5%17.5%-8.9
Ruby Rosso7.9%11.2%-3.3
Rose7.8%8.7%-1.0
Samaritan Trail7.1%4.9%+2.2
Merckx6.4%6.0%+0.4
Mona3.6%7.1%-3.5
Jazzy Scoops3.3%3.7%-0.4
Worthy Park3.2%3.7%-0.5
Colonels Influence2.5%4.9%-2.4
Arkin1.9%3.7%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 396741
🎯 Longshots: 361249781211105
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:2Odenkirk (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:4Uncle Dodo (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -27%
Show:1Verge (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:3Quipster (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -58%, 5Unbridled Freedom (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Odenkirk — 29.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Odenkirk29.1% ◀Uncle Dodo — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Uncle Dodo22.6%Verge — 20.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Verge20.4%Quipster — 17.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Quipster17.2%Unbridled Freedom — 10.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Unbridled Freedom10.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Odenkirk29.1%3/1
Uncle Dodo22.6%2.5/1
Verge20.4%3.5/1
Quipster17.2%2/1
Unbridled Freedom10.8%6/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOdenkirk: model 29.1% vs market 20.3% (+8.8 points)Odenkirk+8.8Uncle Dodo: model 22.6% vs market 23.2% (-0.6 points)Uncle Dodo-0.6Verge: model 20.4% vs market 18.0% (+2.4 points)Verge+2.4Quipster: model 17.2% vs market 27.0% (-9.8 points)Quipster-9.8Unbridled Freedom: model 10.8% vs market 11.6% (-0.8 points)Unbridled Freedom-0.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Odenkirk29.1%20.3%+8.8
Uncle Dodo22.6%23.2%-0.6
Verge20.4%18.0%+2.4
Quipster17.2%27.0%-9.8
Unbridled Freedom10.8%11.6%-0.8
🌧️ Off-track: 21543
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:7Lamirada (1/1) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -48%
Place:1Cattrall (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:6Hope Is A Breeze (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:5Epic Affair (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 4Traction Park (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:2From Time To Time (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -45%, 3Madeleine Swann (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lamirada — 34.3% win probability, morning line 1/1Lamirada34.3% ◀Cattrall — 24.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Cattrall24.5%Hope Is A Breeze — 15.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Hope Is A Breeze15.9%Epic Affair — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Epic Affair10.6%Traction Park — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Traction Park6.9%From Time To Time — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1From Time To Time5.2%Madeleine Swann — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Madeleine Swann2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lamirada34.3%1/1
Cattrall24.5%2.5/1
Hope Is A Breeze15.9%6/1
Epic Affair10.6%8/1
Traction Park6.9%8/1
From Time To Time5.2%10/1
Madeleine Swann2.7%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLamirada: model 34.3% vs market 38.8% (-4.5 points)Lamirada-4.5Cattrall: model 24.5% vs market 22.2% (+2.4 points)Cattrall+2.4Hope Is A Breeze: model 15.9% vs market 11.1% (+4.8 points)Hope Is A Breeze+4.8Epic Affair: model 10.6% vs market 8.6% (+2.0 points)Epic Affair+2.0Traction Park: model 6.9% vs market 8.6% (-1.7 points)Traction Park-1.7From Time To Time: model 5.2% vs market 7.1% (-1.9 points)From Time To Time-1.9Madeleine Swann: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Madeleine Swann-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lamirada34.3%38.8%-4.5
Cattrall24.5%22.2%+2.4
Hope Is A Breeze15.9%11.1%+4.8
Epic Affair10.6%8.6%+2.0
Traction Park6.9%8.6%-1.7
From Time To Time5.2%7.1%-1.9
Madeleine Swann2.7%3.7%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 361542
🎯 Longshots: 7154263
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:6Hard Right (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4Very Special (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Show:3Auntie's Bambino (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:2Smokin Empire (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 5Hello Stranger (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2, 8Silver Coast (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:7Forever Frosty (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 9Mo' Script (10/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -65%, 1Comet's Edge (12/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -72%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hard Right — 29.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Hard Right29.8% ◀Very Special — 29.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Very Special29.3%Auntie'S Bambino — 13.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Auntie'S Bambino13.1%Smokin Empire — 10.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Smokin Empire10.3%Hello Stranger — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Hello Stranger4.1%Silver Coast — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Silver Coast4.0%Forever Frosty — 3.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Forever Frosty3.7%Mo' Script — 3.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Mo' Script3.4%Comet'S Edge — 2.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Comet'S Edge2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hard Right29.8%2/1
Very Special29.3%2.5/1
Auntie'S Bambino13.1%4.5/1
Smokin Empire10.3%6/1
Hello Stranger4.1%20/1
Silver Coast4.0%12/1
Forever Frosty3.7%20/1
Mo' Script3.4%10/1
Comet'S Edge2.3%12/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHard Right: model 29.8% vs market 26.0% (+3.8 points)Hard Right+3.8Very Special: model 29.3% vs market 22.3% (+7.1 points)Very Special+7.1Auntie'S Bambino: model 13.1% vs market 14.2% (-1.1 points)Auntie'S Bambino-1.1Smokin Empire: model 10.3% vs market 11.1% (-0.8 points)Smokin Empire-0.8Hello Stranger: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.3 points)Hello Stranger+0.3Silver Coast: model 4.0% vs market 6.0% (-2.0 points)Silver Coast-2.0Forever Frosty: model 3.7% vs market 3.7% (+0.0 points)Forever Frosty+0.0Mo' Script: model 3.4% vs market 7.1% (-3.7 points)Mo' Script-3.7Comet'S Edge: model 2.3% vs market 6.0% (-3.7 points)Comet'S Edge-3.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hard Right29.8%26.0%+3.8
Very Special29.3%22.3%+7.1
Auntie'S Bambino13.1%14.2%-1.1
Smokin Empire10.3%11.1%-0.8
Hello Stranger4.1%3.7%+0.3
Silver Coast4.0%6.0%-2.0
Forever Frosty3.7%3.7%+0.0
Mo' Script3.4%7.1%-3.7
Comet'S Edge2.3%6.0%-3.7
🌧️ Off-track: 532674
🎯 Longshots: 465239871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:6Lady Rainicorn (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:2Closing Appeal (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:7Olivia's Melody (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:8Butterfly Billie (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Tan Toast (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 3Greenwich Pike (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:4Malibu Betty (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -57%, 9Reload Baba (20/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -40%, 5Bling D'money Home (20/1) 2% · fair 53-1 underlay -62%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lady Rainicorn — 28.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Lady Rainicorn28.1% ◀Closing Appeal — 21.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Closing Appeal21.9%Olivia'S Melody — 13.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Olivia'S Melody13.3%Butterfly Billie — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Butterfly Billie11.7%Tan Toast — 9.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Tan Toast9.8%Greenwich Pike — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Greenwich Pike6.2%Malibu Betty — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Malibu Betty4.1%Reload Baba — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Reload Baba2.9%Bling D'Money Home — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Bling D'Money Home1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lady Rainicorn28.1%2/1
Closing Appeal21.9%3.5/1
Olivia'S Melody13.3%4/1
Butterfly Billie11.7%6/1
Tan Toast9.8%8/1
Greenwich Pike6.2%12/1
Malibu Betty4.1%10/1
Reload Baba2.9%20/1
Bling D'Money Home1.9%20/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLady Rainicorn: model 28.1% vs market 26.2% (+1.9 points)Lady Rainicorn+1.9Closing Appeal: model 21.9% vs market 17.5% (+4.5 points)Closing Appeal+4.5Olivia'S Melody: model 13.3% vs market 15.7% (-2.4 points)Olivia'S Melody-2.4Butterfly Billie: model 11.7% vs market 11.2% (+0.5 points)Butterfly Billie+0.5Tan Toast: model 9.8% vs market 8.7% (+1.1 points)Tan Toast+1.1Greenwich Pike: model 6.2% vs market 6.0% (+0.1 points)Greenwich Pike+0.1Malibu Betty: model 4.1% vs market 7.1% (-3.0 points)Malibu Betty-3.0Reload Baba: model 2.9% vs market 3.7% (-0.9 points)Reload Baba-0.9Bling D'Money Home: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.9 points)Bling D'Money Home-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lady Rainicorn28.1%26.2%+1.9
Closing Appeal21.9%17.5%+4.5
Olivia'S Melody13.3%15.7%-2.4
Butterfly Billie11.7%11.2%+0.5
Tan Toast9.8%8.7%+1.1
Greenwich Pike6.2%6.0%+0.1
Malibu Betty4.1%7.1%-3.0
Reload Baba2.9%3.7%-0.9
Bling D'Money Home1.9%3.7%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 365497
🎯 Longshots: 163294785
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:1Will Win (2/1)
Place:5Dwight (7/2)
Show:6Aterya (6/1)
Other contenders:7Named Firey (5/2), 3Makinmommaproud (8/1)
Rest of field:4Stella Point (20/1), 2Stormover The Nile (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516734
🎯 Longshots: 1675234
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:1Audi's World (4/5)
Place:5Messy Riding (12/1)
Show:4Kairos Moment (4/1)
Other contenders:7Proudly Canadian (20/1), 2High Beam (10/1), 6Celestial Heart (8/1)
Rest of field:8Prime Rate (6/1), 3Metro King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652134
🎯 Longshots: 15672843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:1Peja Du (2/1)
Place:6Quiet Intent (7/2)
Show:7British Artillery (5/2)
Other contenders:2Little Red Domi (8/1), 4Lasting Silence (6/1), 3Prince Of Thieves (20/1)
Rest of field:5True Shot (20/1), 8Alley Oop Johnny (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 657124
🎯 Longshots: 21768435
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:1Webslinger (2/1)
Place:2Kekoa (5/2)
Show:4Eyes On The King (5/1)
Other contenders:6Magical Factor (7/2), 3Sedburys Ghost (4/1)
Rest of field:5Fearless Soldier (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162543
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:5Mac Gowan (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:7Timeframe (3/1)
Show:2Zucchero (2/1)
Other contenders:9Padraig (4/1), 6Bee Me (8/1), 3Digital Security (12/1)
Rest of field:4Gus's Drumbeet (20/1), 8Scuderia (10/1), 1Bank On Big Winner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725863
🎯 Longshots: 826375491
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:12Merckx (12/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:3True North Star (3/1)
Show:1Samaritan Trail (15/1)
Other contenders:6Kingslayer (7/2), 9Time For Action (8/1), 4Rose (8/1), 8Jazzy Scoops (20/1)
Rest of field:7Ruby Rosso (6/1), 10Worthy Park (20/1), 5Arkin (20/1), 2Mona (10/1), 11Colonels Influence (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3161294
🎯 Longshots: 361249781211105
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:3Quipster (2/1)
Place:4Uncle Dodo (5/2)
Show:2Odenkirk (3/1)
Other contenders:1Verge (7/2), 5Unbridled Freedom (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21534
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:7Lamirada (1/1)
Place:1Cattrall (5/2)
Show:6Hope Is A Breeze (6/1)
Other contenders:5Epic Affair (8/1), 4Traction Park (8/1)
Rest of field:2From Time To Time (10/1), 3Madeleine Swann (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163547
🎯 Longshots: 7154263
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:4Very Special (5/2)
Place:2Smokin Empire (6/1)
Show:6Hard Right (2/1)
Other contenders:3Auntie's Bambino (9/2), 5Hello Stranger (20/1), 7Forever Frosty (20/1)
Rest of field:9Mo' Script (10/1), 8Silver Coast (12/1), 1Comet's Edge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 426537
🎯 Longshots: 465239871
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:6Lady Rainicorn (2/1)
Place:2Closing Appeal (7/2)
Show:3Greenwich Pike (12/1)
Other contenders:1Tan Toast (8/1), 7Olivia's Melody (4/1), 8Butterfly Billie (6/1)
Rest of field:9Reload Baba (20/1), 4Malibu Betty (10/1), 5Bling D'money Home (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365247
🎯 Longshots: 163294785
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #5, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #12, #6, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
61Samaritan Trail15/1—9.5%+37.8%0.63%$0.63
95Hello Stranger ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.4%+24.9%0.31%$0.31
612Merckx12/1—9.6%+17.6%0.37%$0.37
TOTAL across 3 plays:1.3%$1.31
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:1Will Win (2/1)
Place:7Named Firey (5/2)
Show:5Dwight (7/2)
Other contenders:6Aterya (6/1), 3Makinmommaproud (8/1)
Rest of field:2Stormover The Nile (10/1), 4Stella Point (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516732
🎯 Longshots: 1675234
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:5Messy Riding (12/1)
Place:1Audi's World (4/5)
Show:4Kairos Moment (4/1)
Other contenders:2High Beam (10/1), 6Celestial Heart (8/1), 8Prime Rate (6/1)
Rest of field:7Proudly Canadian (20/1), 3Metro King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 561248
🎯 Longshots: 15672843
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:1Peja Du (2/1)
Place:7British Artillery (5/2)
Show:6Quiet Intent (7/2)
Other contenders:2Little Red Domi (8/1), 4Lasting Silence (6/1), 8Alley Oop Johnny (12/1)
Rest of field:3Prince Of Thieves (20/1), 5True Shot (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 617524
🎯 Longshots: 21768435
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:6Magical Factor (7/2)
Place:2Kekoa (5/2)
Show:3Sedburys Ghost (4/1)
Other contenders:4Eyes On The King (5/1), 1Webslinger (2/1)
Rest of field:5Fearless Soldier (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 621534
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:5Mac Gowan (6/1)
Place:2Zucchero (2/1)
Show:7Timeframe (3/1)
Other contenders:9Padraig (4/1), 3Digital Security (12/1), 6Bee Me (8/1)
Rest of field:8Scuderia (10/1), 4Gus's Drumbeet (20/1), 1Bank On Big Winner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 752893
🎯 Longshots: 826375491
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:12Merckx (12/1)
Place:3True North Star (3/1)
Show:6Kingslayer (7/2)
Other contenders:7Ruby Rosso (6/1), 1Samaritan Trail (15/1), 4Rose (8/1), 9Time For Action (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mona (10/1), 8Jazzy Scoops (20/1), 10Worthy Park (20/1), 11Colonels Influence (15/1), 5Arkin (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3126714
🎯 Longshots: 361249781211105
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #3, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:4Uncle Dodo (5/2)
Place:2Odenkirk (3/1)
Show:3Quipster (2/1)
Other contenders:1Verge (7/2), 5Unbridled Freedom (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21453
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:6Hope Is A Breeze (6/1)
Place:1Cattrall (5/2)
Show:7Lamirada (1/1)
Other contenders:5Epic Affair (8/1), 4Traction Park (8/1)
Rest of field:2From Time To Time (10/1), 3Madeleine Swann (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615437
🎯 Longshots: 7154263
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:4Very Special (5/2)
Place:6Hard Right (2/1)
Show:2Smokin Empire (6/1)
Other contenders:3Auntie's Bambino (9/2), 5Hello Stranger (20/1), 9Mo' Script (10/1)
Rest of field:8Silver Coast (12/1), 1Comet's Edge (12/1), 7Forever Frosty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436259
🎯 Longshots: 465239871
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:6Lady Rainicorn (2/1)
Place:2Closing Appeal (7/2)
Show:1Tan Toast (8/1)
Other contenders:7Olivia's Melody (4/1), 8Butterfly Billie (6/1), 3Greenwich Pike (12/1)
Rest of field:9Reload Baba (20/1), 4Malibu Betty (10/1), 5Bling D'money Home (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 632178
🎯 Longshots: 163294785
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:1Will Win (2/1)
Place:7Named Firey (5/2)
Show:6Aterya (6/1)
Other contenders:5Dwight (7/2), 3Makinmommaproud (8/1)
Rest of field:2Stormover The Nile (10/1), 4Stella Point (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516732
🎯 Longshots: 1675234
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:1Audi's World (4/5)
Place:4Kairos Moment (4/1)
Show:6Celestial Heart (8/1)
Other contenders:5Messy Riding (12/1), 2High Beam (10/1), 8Prime Rate (6/1)
Rest of field:7Proudly Canadian (20/1), 3Metro King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 651243
🎯 Longshots: 15672843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:1Peja Du (2/1)
Place:4Lasting Silence (6/1)
Show:7British Artillery (5/2)
Other contenders:6Quiet Intent (7/2), 2Little Red Domi (8/1), 8Alley Oop Johnny (12/1)
Rest of field:3Prince Of Thieves (20/1), 5True Shot (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675142
🎯 Longshots: 21768435
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:1Webslinger (2/1)
Place:2Kekoa (5/2)
Show:6Magical Factor (7/2)
Other contenders:4Eyes On The King (5/1), 3Sedburys Ghost (4/1)
Rest of field:5Fearless Soldier (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162453
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:7Timeframe (3/1)
Place:5Mac Gowan (6/1)
Show:2Zucchero (2/1)
Other contenders:9Padraig (4/1), 3Digital Security (12/1), 8Scuderia (10/1)
Rest of field:6Bee Me (8/1), 4Gus's Drumbeet (20/1), 1Bank On Big Winner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 752836
🎯 Longshots: 826375491
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3True North Star (3/1)
Place:12Merckx (12/1)
Show:6Kingslayer (7/2)
Other contenders:9Time For Action (8/1), 1Samaritan Trail (15/1), 7Ruby Rosso (6/1), 4Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:2Mona (10/1), 8Jazzy Scoops (20/1), 10Worthy Park (20/1), 5Arkin (20/1), 11Colonels Influence (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 369174
🎯 Longshots: 361249781211105
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #12, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:3Quipster (2/1)
Place:4Uncle Dodo (5/2)
Show:2Odenkirk (3/1)
Other contenders:1Verge (7/2), 5Unbridled Freedom (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21534
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $125,000
Win:7Lamirada (1/1)
Place:1Cattrall (5/2)
Show:6Hope Is A Breeze (6/1)
Other contenders:5Epic Affair (8/1), 2From Time To Time (10/1)
Rest of field:3Madeleine Swann (20/1), 4Traction Park (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 167534
🎯 Longshots: 7154263
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:4Very Special (5/2)
Place:6Hard Right (2/1)
Show:2Smokin Empire (6/1)
Other contenders:3Auntie's Bambino (9/2), 5Hello Stranger (20/1), 7Forever Frosty (20/1)
Rest of field:8Silver Coast (12/1), 9Mo' Script (10/1), 1Comet's Edge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462357
🎯 Longshots: 465239871
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:2Closing Appeal (7/2)
Place:6Lady Rainicorn (2/1)
Show:3Greenwich Pike (12/1)
Other contenders:1Tan Toast (8/1), 7Olivia's Melody (4/1), 8Butterfly Billie (6/1)
Rest of field:4Malibu Betty (10/1), 9Reload Baba (20/1), 5Bling D'money Home (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362517
🎯 Longshots: 163294785
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #1,#6,#7 (76%) / R2: #1,#4 (67%) / R3: #1,#7,#6 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#4 (67%) / R3: #1,#7,#6 (60%) / R4: #1,#2,#6 (75%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #2,#4,#1 (72%) / R8: #7,#1,#6 (75%) / R9: #6,#4,#3 (72%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 39%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #7,#1,#6 (75%) / R9: #6,#4,#3 (72%) / R10: #6,#2,#7 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #1,#6,#7 (76%) / R2: #1,#4 (67%) / R3: #1,#7,#6 (60%) / R4: #1,#2,#6 (75%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#4 (67%) / R3: #1,#7,#6 (60%) / R4: #1,#2,#6 (75%) / R5: #2,#5,#7 (55%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALLEY OOP JOHNNYARKINATERYAAUDI'S WORLDAUNTIE'S BAMBINO
BEE MEBLING D'MONEY HOMEBRITISH ARTILLERYBUTTERFLY BILLIECATTRALL
CLOSING APPEALCOLONELS INFLUENCECOMET'S EDGEDIGITAL SECURITYDWIGHT
EYES ON THE KINGFEARLESS SOLDIERFOREVER FROSTYFROM TIME TO TIMEGREENWICH PIKE
HARD RIGHTHELLO STRANGERHIGH BEAMHOPE IS A BREEZEJAZZY SCOOPS
KEKOAKINGSLAYERLADY RAINICORNLAMIRADALASTING SILENCE
MAC GOWANMADELEINE SWANNMAGICAL FACTORMAKINMOMMAPROUDMALIBU BETTY
MESSY RIDINGMETRO KINGMO' SCRIPTMONANAMED FIREY
OLIVIA'S MELODYPADRAIGPEJA DUPRIME RATEPRINCE OF THIEVES
QUIET INTENTQUIPSTERRELOAD BABAROSERUBY ROSSO
SCUDERIASEDBURYS GHOSTSILVER COASTSMOKIN EMPIRESTELLA POINT
TAN TOASTTIME FOR ACTIONTIMEFRAMETRACTION PARKTRUE NORTH STAR
UNBRIDLED FREEDOMUNCLE DODOVERGEVERY SPECIALWEBSLINGER
WORTHY PARKZUCCHERO

 


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