Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Belmont, October 11, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 66 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-09.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 31.8% from 66 racesOur top pick31.8%Expert consensus pick: 22.7% from 66 racesExpert consensus pick22.7%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.8%66
Expert consensus pick22.7%66
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Miss Twitter (2/1)
Place:5Majestic Moonlight (5/1)
Show:3Runyon Canyon (4/1)
Other contenders:1On Time Delivery (3/1), 2Legal Squeeze (9/2)
Rest of field:4Candidly (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531246
🎯 Longshots: 613524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Asset Light (7/2)
Place:5Turn N Burn (2/1)
Show:2Fairy Tale (9/5)
Other contenders:1Fantasy Road (7/2), 3Ethereal Quality (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 52143
🎯 Longshots: 52143
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Tap Rules (2/1)
Place:2Karsten (3/1)
Show:6Valentine Crusader (5/2)
Other contenders:1Galicat (4/1), 3Just Tipsy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Hurricane Kaz (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 354612
🎯 Longshots: 462351
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Dividend Recap (7/5)
Place:7Kiamba (3/1)
Show:1Consensus View (3/1)
Other contenders:4Lisa Joy (5/1), 2Alibi (6/1)
Rest of field:6Baby Sassicaia (30/1), 3Y'allreadyforthis (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 657142
🎯 Longshots: 5712463
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:2Rockabye (9/2)
Place:1Cornichiwa (4/1)
Show:8Breaker (5/1)
Other contenders:12Aerial Affair (8/1), 7Zomoroda (6/1), 11Amarius (10/1), 4Golden Ember (10/1)
Rest of field:10Mariner (12/1), 5Kershaw Folly (12/1), 9Peaceably (15/1), 6Call Me (30/1), 3Shook Up The World (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21812711
🎯 Longshots: 171228511491036
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #8, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:3Hot Property (2/1)
Place:7Bakuto (5/2)
Show:6Mike's Magic (5/1)
Other contenders:2Escape Hall (6/1), 8Sports Hero (6/1), 4E Z Bourbon (8/1)
Rest of field:1Mo Spice (20/1), 5Waitin'onasunnyday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 856743
🎯 Longshots: 37145268
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Credit Risk (3/1)
Place:7Spun Size (6/1)
Show:8Twirling Lulu (5/1)
Other contenders:6Clap Back (4/1), 3Ishkabibble (5/1), 1Our Preferred Pal (6/1)
Rest of field:4Mobelladream (6/1), 5Babcie (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 825763
🎯 Longshots: 25876134
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:2Sicilian Defense (7/2)
Place:9Printer's Alley (4/1)
Show:6Kuhner (9/2)
Other contenders:5Mozambique (5/1), 4Three Thirteen (9/2), 7Sharons Pharoah (8/1)
Rest of field:1Razorcat (8/1), 3Noble One (20/1), 8Lord Chatham (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134965
🎯 Longshots: 792615348
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $45,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:2Perretti (8/5)
Place:6Turbo Launch (5/1)
Show:4Authentic Legend (4/1)
Other contenders:5Cuban Cowboy (6/1), 3Notion In Motion (12/1), 10Oligarch (12/1), 9Prime Ranger (12/1)
Rest of field:8Pilot Knob (15/1), 7Dufoof (20/1), 11Endernite (20/1), 1Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3810654
🎯 Longshots: 2310947861151
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Miss Twitter (2/1) 27% · fair 3-1 underlay -27%
Place:1On Time Delivery (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:5Majestic Moonlight (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:3Runyon Canyon (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2, 2Legal Squeeze (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:4Candidly (6/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -75%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss Twitter — 26.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Miss Twitter26.6% ◀On Time Delivery — 20.0% win probability, morning line 3/1On Time Delivery20.0%Majestic Moonlight — 19.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Majestic Moonlight19.7%Runyon Canyon — 18.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Runyon Canyon18.1%Legal Squeeze — 11.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Legal Squeeze11.5%Candidly — 4.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Candidly4.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss Twitter26.6%2/1
On Time Delivery20.0%3/1
Majestic Moonlight19.7%5/1
Runyon Canyon18.1%4/1
Legal Squeeze11.5%4.5/1
Candidly4.1%6/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiss Twitter: model 26.6% vs market 26.2% (+0.5 points)Miss Twitter+0.5On Time Delivery: model 20.0% vs market 19.6% (+0.4 points)On Time Delivery+0.4Majestic Moonlight: model 19.7% vs market 13.1% (+6.6 points)Majestic Moonlight+6.6Runyon Canyon: model 18.1% vs market 15.7% (+2.4 points)Runyon Canyon+2.4Legal Squeeze: model 11.5% vs market 14.3% (-2.7 points)Legal Squeeze-2.7Candidly: model 4.1% vs market 11.2% (-7.1 points)Candidly-7.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miss Twitter26.6%26.2%+0.5
On Time Delivery20.0%19.6%+0.4
Majestic Moonlight19.7%13.1%+6.6
Runyon Canyon18.1%15.7%+2.4
Legal Squeeze11.5%14.3%-2.7
Candidly4.1%11.2%-7.1
🌧️ Off-track: 513246
🎯 Longshots: 613524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Asset Light (7/2) 35% · fair 2-1 overlay +88%
Place:3Ethereal Quality (6/1) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +94%
Show:5Turn N Burn (2/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -64%
Other contenders:2Fairy Tale (9/5) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -71%, 1Fantasy Road (7/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -54%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Asset Light — 34.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Asset Light34.9% ◀Ethereal Quality — 24.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Ethereal Quality24.5%Turn N Burn — 15.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Turn N Burn15.3%Fairy Tale — 13.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Fairy Tale13.8%Fantasy Road — 11.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Fantasy Road11.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Asset Light34.9%3.5/1
Ethereal Quality24.5%6/1
Turn N Burn15.3%2/1
Fairy Tale13.8%1.8/1
Fantasy Road11.5%3.5/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAsset Light: model 34.9% vs market 17.4% (+17.5 points)Asset Light+17.5Ethereal Quality: model 24.5% vs market 11.2% (+13.3 points)Ethereal Quality+13.3Turn N Burn: model 15.3% vs market 26.1% (-10.8 points)Turn N Burn-10.8Fairy Tale: model 13.8% vs market 28.0% (-14.1 points)Fairy Tale-14.1Fantasy Road: model 11.5% vs market 17.4% (-5.9 points)Fantasy Road-5.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Asset Light34.9%17.4%+17.5
Ethereal Quality24.5%11.2%+13.3
Turn N Burn15.3%26.1%-10.8
Fairy Tale13.8%28.0%-14.1
Fantasy Road11.5%17.4%-5.9
🌧️ Off-track: 52143
🎯 Longshots: 52143
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Tap Rules (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -29%
Place:2Karsten (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:6Valentine Crusader (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:1Galicat (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25%, 3Just Tipsy (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:5Hurricane Kaz (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -42%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tap Rules — 26.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Tap Rules26.2% ◀Karsten — 24.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Karsten24.7%Valentine Crusader — 21.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Valentine Crusader21.3%Galicat — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Galicat15.7%Just Tipsy — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Just Tipsy6.7%Hurricane Kaz — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Hurricane Kaz5.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tap Rules26.2%2/1
Karsten24.7%3/1
Valentine Crusader21.3%2.5/1
Galicat15.7%4/1
Just Tipsy6.7%8/1
Hurricane Kaz5.5%10/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTap Rules: model 26.2% vs market 26.2% (-0.0 points)Tap Rules-0.0Karsten: model 24.7% vs market 19.7% (+5.0 points)Karsten+5.0Valentine Crusader: model 21.3% vs market 22.5% (-1.2 points)Valentine Crusader-1.2Galicat: model 15.7% vs market 15.7% (-0.0 points)Galicat-0.0Just Tipsy: model 6.7% vs market 8.7% (-2.1 points)Just Tipsy-2.1Hurricane Kaz: model 5.5% vs market 7.2% (-1.7 points)Hurricane Kaz-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tap Rules26.2%26.2%-0.0
Karsten24.7%19.7%+5.0
Valentine Crusader21.3%22.5%-1.2
Galicat15.7%15.7%-0.0
Just Tipsy6.7%8.7%-2.1
Hurricane Kaz5.5%7.2%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 354612
🎯 Longshots: 462351
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:5Dividend Recap (7/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -39%
Place:7Kiamba (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:1Consensus View (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:4Lisa Joy (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 2Alibi (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:6Baby Sassicaia (30/1) 1% · fair 177-2 underlay -66%, 3Y'allreadyforthis (50/1) 1% · fair 122-1 underlay -59%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dividend Recap — 30.4% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Dividend Recap30.4% ◀Kiamba — 21.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Kiamba21.9%Consensus View — 21.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Consensus View21.8%Lisa Joy — 14.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Lisa Joy14.1%Alibi — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Alibi9.9%Baby Sassicaia — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Baby Sassicaia1.1%Y'Allreadyforthis — 0.8% win probability, morning line 50/1Y'Allreadyforthis0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dividend Recap30.4%1.4/1
Kiamba21.9%3/1
Consensus View21.8%3/1
Lisa Joy14.1%5/1
Alibi9.9%6/1
Baby Sassicaia1.1%30/1
Y'Allreadyforthis0.8%50/1
🌧️ Off-track: 657142
🎯 Longshots: 5712463
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:2Rockabye (9/2) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +116%
Place:8Breaker (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Show:1Cornichiwa (4/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -44%
Other contenders:12Aerial Affair (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 7Zomoroda (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 11Amarius (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -52%, 5Kershaw Folly (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%
Rest of field:4Golden Ember (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -62%, 10Mariner (12/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -62%, 9Peaceably (15/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -55%, 6Call Me (30/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -42%, 3Shook Up The World (20/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -67%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rockabye — 32.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Rockabye32.5% ◀Breaker — 14.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Breaker14.0%Cornichiwa — 12.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Cornichiwa12.2%Aerial Affair — 10.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Aerial Affair10.7%Zomoroda — 9.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Zomoroda9.1%Amarius — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Amarius4.6%Kershaw Folly — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Kershaw Folly3.7%Golden Ember — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Golden Ember3.7%Mariner — 3.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Mariner3.1%Peaceably — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Peaceably2.9%Call Me — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Call Me1.9%Shook Up The World — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Shook Up The World1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rockabye32.5%4.5/1
Breaker14.0%5/1
Cornichiwa12.2%4/1
Aerial Affair10.7%8/1
Zomoroda9.1%6/1
Amarius4.6%10/1
Kershaw Folly3.7%12/1
Golden Ember3.7%10/1
Mariner3.1%12/1
Peaceably2.9%15/1
Call Me1.9%30/1
Shook Up The World1.6%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRockabye: model 32.5% vs market 14.2% (+18.3 points)Rockabye+18.3Breaker: model 14.0% vs market 13.0% (+1.0 points)Breaker+1.0Cornichiwa: model 12.2% vs market 15.6% (-3.4 points)Cornichiwa-3.4Aerial Affair: model 10.7% vs market 8.7% (+2.0 points)Aerial Affair+2.0Zomoroda: model 9.1% vs market 11.2% (-2.0 points)Zomoroda-2.0Amarius: model 4.6% vs market 7.1% (-2.5 points)Amarius-2.5Kershaw Folly: model 3.7% vs market 6.0% (-2.3 points)Kershaw Folly-2.3Golden Ember: model 3.7% vs market 7.1% (-3.4 points)Golden Ember-3.4Mariner: model 3.1% vs market 6.0% (-2.9 points)Mariner-2.9Peaceably: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Peaceably-2.0Call Me: model 1.9% vs market 2.5% (-0.6 points)Call Me-0.6Shook Up The World: model 1.6% vs market 3.7% (-2.1 points)Shook Up The World-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rockabye32.5%14.2%+18.3
Breaker14.0%13.0%+1.0
Cornichiwa12.2%15.6%-3.4
Aerial Affair10.7%8.7%+2.0
Zomoroda9.1%11.2%-2.0
Amarius4.6%7.1%-2.5
Kershaw Folly3.7%6.0%-2.3
Golden Ember3.7%7.1%-3.4
Mariner3.1%6.0%-2.9
Peaceably2.9%4.9%-2.0
Call Me1.9%2.5%-0.6
Shook Up The World1.6%3.7%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 28112711
🎯 Longshots: 171228511491036
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:3Hot Property (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:7Bakuto (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:2Escape Hall (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32%
Other contenders:6Mike's Magic (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%, 8Sports Hero (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 4E Z Bourbon (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -46%
Rest of field:1Mo Spice (20/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -32%, 5Waitin'onasunnyday (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hot Property — 34.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Hot Property34.3% ◀Bakuto — 26.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bakuto26.5%Escape Hall — 10.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Escape Hall10.2%Mike'S Magic — 9.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Mike'S Magic9.9%Sports Hero — 7.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Sports Hero7.0%E Z Bourbon — 6.3% win probability, morning line 8/1E Z Bourbon6.3%Mo Spice — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Mo Spice3.3%Waitin'Onasunnyday — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Waitin'Onasunnyday2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hot Property34.3%2/1
Bakuto26.5%2.5/1
Escape Hall10.2%6/1
Mike'S Magic9.9%5/1
Sports Hero7.0%6/1
E Z Bourbon6.3%8/1
Mo Spice3.3%20/1
Waitin'Onasunnyday2.6%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHot Property: model 34.3% vs market 26.1% (+8.2 points)Hot Property+8.2Bakuto: model 26.5% vs market 22.4% (+4.1 points)Bakuto+4.1Escape Hall: model 10.2% vs market 11.2% (-1.0 points)Escape Hall-1.0Mike'S Magic: model 9.9% vs market 13.0% (-3.1 points)Mike'S Magic-3.1Sports Hero: model 7.0% vs market 11.2% (-4.2 points)Sports Hero-4.2E Z Bourbon: model 6.3% vs market 8.7% (-2.4 points)E Z Bourbon-2.4Mo Spice: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Mo Spice-0.4Waitin'Onasunnyday: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Waitin'Onasunnyday-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hot Property34.3%26.1%+8.2
Bakuto26.5%22.4%+4.1
Escape Hall10.2%11.2%-1.0
Mike'S Magic9.9%13.0%-3.1
Sports Hero7.0%11.2%-4.2
E Z Bourbon6.3%8.7%-2.4
Mo Spice3.3%3.7%-0.4
Waitin'Onasunnyday2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 856743
🎯 Longshots: 37145268
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Credit Risk (3/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +30%
Place:4Mobelladream (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:7Spun Size (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:3Ishkabibble (5/1) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 8Twirling Lulu (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -44%, 1Our Preferred Pal (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -37%
Rest of field:6Clap Back (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -62%, 5Babcie (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Credit Risk — 30.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Credit Risk30.3% ◀Mobelladream — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Mobelladream13.2%Spun Size — 12.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Spun Size12.4%Ishkabibble — 11.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Ishkabibble11.4%Twirling Lulu — 10.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Twirling Lulu10.1%Our Preferred Pal — 9.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Our Preferred Pal9.5%Clap Back — 8.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Clap Back8.6%Babcie — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Babcie4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Credit Risk30.3%3/1
Mobelladream13.2%6/1
Spun Size12.4%6/1
Ishkabibble11.4%5/1
Twirling Lulu10.1%5/1
Our Preferred Pal9.5%6/1
Clap Back8.6%4/1
Babcie4.4%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCredit Risk: model 30.3% vs market 19.4% (+10.9 points)Credit Risk+10.9Mobelladream: model 13.2% vs market 11.1% (+2.2 points)Mobelladream+2.2Spun Size: model 12.4% vs market 11.1% (+1.3 points)Spun Size+1.3Ishkabibble: model 11.4% vs market 12.9% (-1.5 points)Ishkabibble-1.5Twirling Lulu: model 10.1% vs market 12.9% (-2.8 points)Twirling Lulu-2.8Our Preferred Pal: model 9.5% vs market 11.1% (-1.5 points)Our Preferred Pal-1.5Clap Back: model 8.6% vs market 15.5% (-6.9 points)Clap Back-6.9Babcie: model 4.4% vs market 6.0% (-1.5 points)Babcie-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Credit Risk30.3%19.4%+10.9
Mobelladream13.2%11.1%+2.2
Spun Size12.4%11.1%+1.3
Ishkabibble11.4%12.9%-1.5
Twirling Lulu10.1%12.9%-2.8
Our Preferred Pal9.5%11.1%-1.5
Clap Back8.6%15.5%-6.9
Babcie4.4%6.0%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 852736
🎯 Longshots: 25876134
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Printer's Alley (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Place:2Sicilian Defense (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:6Kuhner (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:5Mozambique (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 7Sharons Pharoah (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 4Three Thirteen (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:1Razorcat (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%, 8Lord Chatham (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -50%, 3Noble One (20/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -43%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Printer'S Alley — 19.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Printer'S Alley19.7% ◀Sicilian Defense — 19.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sicilian Defense19.1%Kuhner — 15.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Kuhner15.3%Mozambique — 14.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Mozambique14.3%Sharons Pharoah — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Sharons Pharoah10.1%Three Thirteen — 9.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Three Thirteen9.9%Razorcat — 5.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Razorcat5.5%Lord Chatham — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Lord Chatham3.2%Noble One — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Noble One2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Printer'S Alley19.7%4/1
Sicilian Defense19.1%3.5/1
Kuhner15.3%4.5/1
Mozambique14.3%5/1
Sharons Pharoah10.1%8/1
Three Thirteen9.9%4.5/1
Razorcat5.5%8/1
Lord Chatham3.2%15/1
Noble One2.8%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPrinter'S Alley: model 19.7% vs market 15.6% (+4.1 points)Printer'S Alley+4.1Sicilian Defense: model 19.1% vs market 17.3% (+1.8 points)Sicilian Defense+1.8Kuhner: model 15.3% vs market 14.2% (+1.2 points)Kuhner+1.2Mozambique: model 14.3% vs market 13.0% (+1.3 points)Mozambique+1.3Sharons Pharoah: model 10.1% vs market 8.6% (+1.5 points)Sharons Pharoah+1.5Three Thirteen: model 9.9% vs market 14.2% (-4.2 points)Three Thirteen-4.2Razorcat: model 5.5% vs market 8.6% (-3.1 points)Razorcat-3.1Lord Chatham: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Lord Chatham-1.7Noble One: model 2.8% vs market 3.7% (-0.9 points)Noble One-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Printer'S Alley19.7%15.6%+4.1
Sicilian Defense19.1%17.3%+1.8
Kuhner15.3%14.2%+1.2
Mozambique14.3%13.0%+1.3
Sharons Pharoah10.1%8.6%+1.5
Three Thirteen9.9%14.2%-4.2
Razorcat5.5%8.6%-3.1
Lord Chatham3.2%4.9%-1.7
Noble One2.8%3.7%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 134965
🎯 Longshots: 792615348
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:2Perretti (8/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:4Authentic Legend (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:6Turbo Launch (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:5Cuban Cowboy (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 9Prime Ranger (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3Notion In Motion (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 11Endernite (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2
Rest of field:8Pilot Knob (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -56%, 10Oligarch (12/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -65%, 7Dufoof (20/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -61%, 1Klimt Master (50/1) 0% · fair 437-2 underlay -77%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Perretti — 32.7% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Perretti32.7% ◀Authentic Legend — 18.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Authentic Legend18.7%Turbo Launch — 17.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Turbo Launch17.8%Cuban Cowboy — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Cuban Cowboy7.7%Prime Ranger — 7.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Prime Ranger7.0%Notion In Motion — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Notion In Motion4.1%Endernite — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Endernite4.0%Pilot Knob — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Pilot Knob2.8%Oligarch — 2.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Oligarch2.8%Dufoof — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Dufoof1.9%Klimt Master — 0.5% win probability, morning line 50/1Klimt Master0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Perretti32.7%1.6/1
Authentic Legend18.7%4/1
Turbo Launch17.8%5/1
Cuban Cowboy7.7%6/1
Prime Ranger7.0%12/1
Notion In Motion4.1%12/1
Endernite4.0%20/1
Pilot Knob2.8%15/1
Oligarch2.8%12/1
Dufoof1.9%20/1
Klimt Master0.5%50/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPerretti: model 32.7% vs market 29.5% (+3.1 points)Perretti+3.1Authentic Legend: model 18.7% vs market 15.4% (+3.3 points)Authentic Legend+3.3Turbo Launch: model 17.8% vs market 12.8% (+5.0 points)Turbo Launch+5.0Cuban Cowboy: model 7.7% vs market 11.0% (-3.3 points)Cuban Cowboy-3.3Prime Ranger: model 7.0% vs market 5.9% (+1.1 points)Prime Ranger+1.1Notion In Motion: model 4.1% vs market 5.9% (-1.8 points)Notion In Motion-1.8Endernite: model 4.0% vs market 3.7% (+0.4 points)Endernite+0.4Pilot Knob: model 2.8% vs market 4.8% (-2.0 points)Pilot Knob-2.0Oligarch: model 2.8% vs market 5.9% (-3.1 points)Oligarch-3.1Dufoof: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Dufoof-1.8Klimt Master: model 0.5% vs market 1.5% (-1.1 points)Klimt Master-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Perretti32.7%29.5%+3.1
Authentic Legend18.7%15.4%+3.3
Turbo Launch17.8%12.8%+5.0
Cuban Cowboy7.7%11.0%-3.3
Prime Ranger7.0%5.9%+1.1
Notion In Motion4.1%5.9%-1.8
Endernite4.0%3.7%+0.4
Pilot Knob2.8%4.8%-2.0
Oligarch2.8%5.9%-3.1
Dufoof1.9%3.7%-1.8
Klimt Master0.5%1.5%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 3810651
🎯 Longshots: 2310947861151
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 66 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-09.

0%8%16%24%32%Our top pick: 25.8% from 66 racesOur top pick25.8%Expert consensus pick: 22.7% from 66 racesExpert consensus pick22.7%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick25.8%66
Expert consensus pick22.7%66
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Miss Twitter (2/1)
Place:3Runyon Canyon (4/1)
Show:1On Time Delivery (3/1)
Other contenders:5Majestic Moonlight (5/1), 2Legal Squeeze (9/2)
Rest of field:4Candidly (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531624
🎯 Longshots: 613524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Asset Light (7/2)
Place:3Ethereal Quality (6/1)
Show:5Turn N Burn (2/1)
Other contenders:2Fairy Tale (9/5), 1Fantasy Road (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 45213
🎯 Longshots: 52143
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Tap Rules (2/1)
Place:6Valentine Crusader (5/2)
Show:2Karsten (3/1)
Other contenders:1Galicat (4/1), 3Just Tipsy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Hurricane Kaz (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346152
🎯 Longshots: 462351
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:5Dividend Recap (7/5)
Place:2Alibi (6/1)
Show:1Consensus View (3/1)
Other contenders:7Kiamba (3/1), 4Lisa Joy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Y'allreadyforthis (50/1), 6Baby Sassicaia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512764
🎯 Longshots: 5712463
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Breaker (5/1)
Place:2Rockabye (9/2)
Show:12Aerial Affair (8/1)
Other contenders:6Call Me (30/1), 1Cornichiwa (4/1), 11Amarius (10/1), 4Golden Ember (10/1)
Rest of field:7Zomoroda (6/1), 10Mariner (12/1), 3Shook Up The World (20/1), 5Kershaw Folly (12/1), 9Peaceably (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 82126111
🎯 Longshots: 171228511491036
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #12, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:7Bakuto (5/2)
Place:3Hot Property (2/1)
Show:6Mike's Magic (5/1)
Other contenders:2Escape Hall (6/1), 8Sports Hero (6/1), 1Mo Spice (20/1)
Rest of field:4E Z Bourbon (8/1), 5Waitin'onasunnyday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 687532
🎯 Longshots: 37145268
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Credit Risk (3/1)
Place:5Babcie (12/1)
Show:7Spun Size (6/1)
Other contenders:8Twirling Lulu (5/1), 1Our Preferred Pal (6/1), 6Clap Back (4/1)
Rest of field:3Ishkabibble (5/1), 4Mobelladream (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 582763
🎯 Longshots: 25876134
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:2Sicilian Defense (7/2)
Place:9Printer's Alley (4/1)
Show:5Mozambique (5/1)
Other contenders:4Three Thirteen (9/2), 6Kuhner (9/2), 7Sharons Pharoah (8/1)
Rest of field:1Razorcat (8/1), 8Lord Chatham (15/1), 3Noble One (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 194365
🎯 Longshots: 792615348
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:2Perretti (8/5)
Place:4Authentic Legend (4/1)
Show:6Turbo Launch (5/1)
Other contenders:5Cuban Cowboy (6/1), 8Pilot Knob (15/1), 3Notion In Motion (12/1), 7Dufoof (20/1)
Rest of field:11Endernite (20/1), 9Prime Ranger (12/1), 10Oligarch (12/1), 1Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8310654
🎯 Longshots: 2310947861151
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #2, #12, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #7 ($1 straight; box #2-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #2 ($1 straight; box #9-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
43Y'Allreadyforthis50/1—2.9%+40.4%0.20%$0.20
91Klimt Master ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)50/1—2.7%+30.1%0.15%$0.15
97Dufoof ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—5.6%+14.1%0.18%$0.18
TOTAL across 3 plays:0.5%$0.53
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Miss Twitter (2/1)
Place:1On Time Delivery (3/1)
Show:3Runyon Canyon (4/1)
Other contenders:5Majestic Moonlight (5/1), 2Legal Squeeze (9/2)
Rest of field:4Candidly (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513624
🎯 Longshots: 613524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:5Turn N Burn (2/1)
Place:2Fairy Tale (9/5)
Show:4Asset Light (7/2)
Other contenders:1Fantasy Road (7/2), 3Ethereal Quality (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 52413
🎯 Longshots: 52143
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Tap Rules (2/1)
Place:2Karsten (3/1)
Show:6Valentine Crusader (5/2)
Other contenders:1Galicat (4/1), 3Just Tipsy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Hurricane Kaz (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436125
🎯 Longshots: 462351
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:5Dividend Recap (7/5)
Place:7Kiamba (3/1)
Show:1Consensus View (3/1)
Other contenders:2Alibi (6/1), 4Lisa Joy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Y'allreadyforthis (50/1), 6Baby Sassicaia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 571426
🎯 Longshots: 5712463
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Breaker (5/1)
Place:2Rockabye (9/2)
Show:12Aerial Affair (8/1)
Other contenders:1Cornichiwa (4/1), 7Zomoroda (6/1), 11Amarius (10/1), 4Golden Ember (10/1)
Rest of field:10Mariner (12/1), 5Kershaw Folly (12/1), 9Peaceably (15/1), 3Shook Up The World (20/1), 6Call Me (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 82121711
🎯 Longshots: 171228511491036
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #12, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:6Mike's Magic (5/1)
Place:7Bakuto (5/2)
Show:3Hot Property (2/1)
Other contenders:2Escape Hall (6/1), 8Sports Hero (6/1), 4E Z Bourbon (8/1)
Rest of field:1Mo Spice (20/1), 5Waitin'onasunnyday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678354
🎯 Longshots: 37145268
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Credit Risk (3/1)
Place:5Babcie (12/1)
Show:7Spun Size (6/1)
Other contenders:6Clap Back (4/1), 8Twirling Lulu (5/1), 3Ishkabibble (5/1)
Rest of field:1Our Preferred Pal (6/1), 4Mobelladream (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 258763
🎯 Longshots: 25876134
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Printer's Alley (4/1)
Place:5Mozambique (5/1)
Show:2Sicilian Defense (7/2)
Other contenders:6Kuhner (9/2), 7Sharons Pharoah (8/1), 4Three Thirteen (9/2)
Rest of field:1Razorcat (8/1), 3Noble One (20/1), 8Lord Chatham (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 914653
🎯 Longshots: 792615348
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:2Perretti (8/5)
Place:4Authentic Legend (4/1)
Show:6Turbo Launch (5/1)
Other contenders:5Cuban Cowboy (6/1), 3Notion In Motion (12/1), 10Oligarch (12/1), 9Prime Ranger (12/1)
Rest of field:8Pilot Knob (15/1), 7Dufoof (20/1), 11Endernite (20/1), 1Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3810654
🎯 Longshots: 2310947861151
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Miss Twitter (2/1)
Place:1On Time Delivery (3/1)
Show:5Majestic Moonlight (5/1)
Other contenders:3Runyon Canyon (4/1), 2Legal Squeeze (9/2)
Rest of field:4Candidly (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516324
🎯 Longshots: 613524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Asset Light (7/2)
Place:3Ethereal Quality (6/1)
Show:5Turn N Burn (2/1)
Other contenders:2Fairy Tale (9/5), 1Fantasy Road (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 45213
🎯 Longshots: 52143
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Tap Rules (2/1)
Place:6Valentine Crusader (5/2)
Show:2Karsten (3/1)
Other contenders:1Galicat (4/1), 3Just Tipsy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Hurricane Kaz (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436125
🎯 Longshots: 462351
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:5Dividend Recap (7/5)
Place:1Consensus View (3/1)
Show:2Alibi (6/1)
Other contenders:7Kiamba (3/1), 4Lisa Joy (5/1)
Rest of field:6Baby Sassicaia (30/1), 3Y'allreadyforthis (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517246
🎯 Longshots: 5712463
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:8Breaker (5/1)
Place:2Rockabye (9/2)
Show:12Aerial Affair (8/1)
Other contenders:1Cornichiwa (4/1), 7Zomoroda (6/1), 6Call Me (30/1), 11Amarius (10/1)
Rest of field:4Golden Ember (10/1), 10Mariner (12/1), 5Kershaw Folly (12/1), 3Shook Up The World (20/1), 9Peaceably (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8212176
🎯 Longshots: 171228511491036
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #12, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:7Bakuto (5/2)
Place:3Hot Property (2/1)
Show:6Mike's Magic (5/1)
Other contenders:2Escape Hall (6/1), 4E Z Bourbon (8/1), 8Sports Hero (6/1)
Rest of field:1Mo Spice (20/1), 5Waitin'onasunnyday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678534
🎯 Longshots: 37145268
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:2Credit Risk (3/1)
Place:7Spun Size (6/1)
Show:8Twirling Lulu (5/1)
Other contenders:1Our Preferred Pal (6/1), 6Clap Back (4/1), 3Ishkabibble (5/1)
Rest of field:5Babcie (12/1), 4Mobelladream (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 285763
🎯 Longshots: 25876134
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Printer's Alley (4/1)
Place:2Sicilian Defense (7/2)
Show:6Kuhner (9/2)
Other contenders:5Mozambique (5/1), 4Three Thirteen (9/2), 7Sharons Pharoah (8/1)
Rest of field:1Razorcat (8/1), 3Noble One (20/1), 8Lord Chatham (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 914635
🎯 Longshots: 792615348
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:2Perretti (8/5)
Place:4Authentic Legend (4/1)
Show:6Turbo Launch (5/1)
Other contenders:5Cuban Cowboy (6/1), 3Notion In Motion (12/1), 9Prime Ranger (12/1), 8Pilot Knob (15/1)
Rest of field:7Dufoof (20/1), 10Oligarch (12/1), 11Endernite (20/1), 1Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3810654
🎯 Longshots: 2310947861151
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6,#1,#5 (66%) / R2: #4,#3,#5 (75%) / R3: #4,#2,#6 (72%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#3,#5 (75%) / R3: #4,#2,#6 (72%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (74%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 40%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#2,#6 (72%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (74%) / R5: #2,#8,#1 (59%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #5,#7,#1 (74%) / R5: #2,#8,#1 (59%) / R6: #3,#7 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #6,#1,#5 (66%) / R2: #4,#3,#5 (75%) / R3: #4,#2,#6 (72%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (74%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #4,#2,#6 (72%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (74%) / R5: #2,#8,#1 (59%) / R6: #3,#7 (61%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AERIAL AFFAIRALIBIAMARIUSASSET LIGHTAUTHENTIC LEGEND
BABY SASSICAIABAKUTOBREAKERCALL MECANDIDLY
CONSENSUS VIEWCORNICHIWACREDIT RISKCUBAN COWBOYDIVIDEND RECAP
E Z BOURBONENDERNITEESCAPE HALLETHEREAL QUALITYFAIRY TALE
GALICATGOLDEN EMBERHOT PROPERTYHURRICANE KAZISHKABIBBLE
KARSTENKERSHAW FOLLYKIAMBAKLIMT MASTERKUHNER
LISA JOYLORD CHATHAMMAJESTIC MOONLIGHTMARINERMIKE'S MAGIC
MO SPICEMOBELLADREAMMOZAMBIQUENOBLE ONENOTION IN MOTION
ON TIME DELIVERYOUR PREFERRED PALPEACEABLYPERRETTIPILOT KNOB
PRINTER'S ALLEYRAZORCATROCKABYERUNYON CANYONSHARONS PHAROAH
SICILIAN DEFENSESPORTS HEROSPUN SIZETAP RULESTHREE THIRTEEN
TURN N BURNTWIRLING LULUVALENTINE CRUSADERWAITIN'ONASUNNYDAYY'ALLREADYFORTHIS

 


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