Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – EQB, October 11, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Uriel's Decree (3/1)
Place:8Bandari (4/1)
Show:6New Friend (7/2)
Other contenders:5Fight And Pray (6/1), 10Rotenberg (8/1), 1Dharmak (12/1)
Rest of field:3Redbad (8/1), 9Save Our Soul (15/1), 7Slew Vinbiz (20/1), 4Macario (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5928610
🎯 Longshots: 28610135947
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $35,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Zevi's Zone (2/1)
Place:7Sticky Mcshnickens (5/2)
Show:3Governor Dutton (7/2)
Other contenders:1Titans Edge (4/1), 2Deuxieme Chance (10/1)
Rest of field:4Sharpazano (10/1), 6Gray Astray (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357214
🎯 Longshots: 5724136
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Redland Rebels (2/1)
Place:2Name It (5/2)
Show:5Quizler (4/1)
Other contenders:3Junction Road (8/1), 8Saratoga Flash (5/1), 4Khozalite (12/1)
Rest of field:6Navy Cross (15/1), 7Ciborio (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851647
🎯 Longshots: 14235678
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:2Uriel's Decree (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:8Bandari (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25%
Show:10Rotenberg (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:6New Friend (7/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -54%, 3Redbad (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 5Fight And Pray (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32%
Rest of field:1Dharmak (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 9Save Our Soul (15/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -49%, 7Slew Vinbiz (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -43%, 4Macario (20/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -47%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Uriel'S Decree — 23.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Uriel'S Decree23.5% ◀Bandari — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Bandari15.7%Rotenberg — 13.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Rotenberg13.4%New Friend — 11.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1New Friend11.6%Redbad — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Redbad11.0%Fight And Pray — 10.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Fight And Pray10.2%Dharmak — 6.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Dharmak6.0%Save Our Soul — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Save Our Soul3.3%Slew Vinbiz — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Slew Vinbiz2.8%Macario — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Macario2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Uriel'S Decree23.5%3/1
Bandari15.7%4/1
Rotenberg13.4%8/1
New Friend11.6%3.5/1
Redbad11.0%8/1
Fight And Pray10.2%6/1
Dharmak6.0%12/1
Save Our Soul3.3%15/1
Slew Vinbiz2.8%20/1
Macario2.6%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUriel'S Decree: model 23.5% vs market 19.7% (+3.8 points)Uriel'S Decree+3.8Bandari: model 15.7% vs market 15.7% (+0.0 points)Bandari+0.0Rotenberg: model 13.4% vs market 8.7% (+4.7 points)Rotenberg+4.7New Friend: model 11.6% vs market 17.5% (-5.9 points)New Friend-5.9Redbad: model 11.0% vs market 8.7% (+2.3 points)Redbad+2.3Fight And Pray: model 10.2% vs market 11.2% (-1.0 points)Fight And Pray-1.0Dharmak: model 6.0% vs market 6.0% (-0.1 points)Dharmak-0.1Save Our Soul: model 3.3% vs market 4.9% (-1.6 points)Save Our Soul-1.6Slew Vinbiz: model 2.8% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Slew Vinbiz-1.0Macario: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.2 points)Macario-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Uriel'S Decree23.5%19.7%+3.8
Bandari15.7%15.7%+0.0
Rotenberg13.4%8.7%+4.7
New Friend11.6%17.5%-5.9
Redbad11.0%8.7%+2.3
Fight And Pray10.2%11.2%-1.0
Dharmak6.0%6.0%-0.1
Save Our Soul3.3%4.9%-1.6
Slew Vinbiz2.8%3.7%-1.0
Macario2.6%3.7%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 5928106
🎯 Longshots: 28610135947
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #10, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:7Sticky Mcshnickens (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:5Zevi's Zone (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -42%
Show:1Titans Edge (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:3Governor Dutton (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -46%, 2Deuxieme Chance (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:4Sharpazano (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%, 6Gray Astray (15/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -42%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sticky Mcshnickens — 29.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sticky Mcshnickens29.8% ◀Zevi'S Zone — 22.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Zevi'S Zone22.4%Titans Edge — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Titans Edge17.3%Governor Dutton — 13.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Governor Dutton13.5%Deuxieme Chance — 8.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Deuxieme Chance8.9%Sharpazano — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Sharpazano4.4%Gray Astray — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Gray Astray3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sticky Mcshnickens29.8%2.5/1
Zevi'S Zone22.4%2/1
Titans Edge17.3%4/1
Governor Dutton13.5%3.5/1
Deuxieme Chance8.9%10/1
Sharpazano4.4%10/1
Gray Astray3.7%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSticky Mcshnickens: model 29.8% vs market 22.2% (+7.6 points)Sticky Mcshnickens+7.6Zevi'S Zone: model 22.4% vs market 25.9% (-3.5 points)Zevi'S Zone-3.5Titans Edge: model 17.3% vs market 15.6% (+1.7 points)Titans Edge+1.7Governor Dutton: model 13.5% vs market 17.3% (-3.8 points)Governor Dutton-3.8Deuxieme Chance: model 8.9% vs market 7.1% (+1.8 points)Deuxieme Chance+1.8Sharpazano: model 4.4% vs market 7.1% (-2.7 points)Sharpazano-2.7Gray Astray: model 3.7% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Gray Astray-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sticky Mcshnickens29.8%22.2%+7.6
Zevi'S Zone22.4%25.9%-3.5
Titans Edge17.3%15.6%+1.7
Governor Dutton13.5%17.3%-3.8
Deuxieme Chance8.9%7.1%+1.8
Sharpazano4.4%7.1%-2.7
Gray Astray3.7%4.9%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 357241
🎯 Longshots: 5724136
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:1Redland Rebels (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Place:2Name It (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:5Quizler (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:8Saratoga Flash (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 4Khozalite (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 3Junction Road (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:6Navy Cross (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 7Ciborio (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Redland Rebels — 26.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Redland Rebels26.0% ◀Name It — 24.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Name It24.7%Quizler — 16.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Quizler16.9%Saratoga Flash — 11.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Saratoga Flash11.6%Khozalite — 8.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Khozalite8.0%Junction Road — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Junction Road6.8%Navy Cross — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Navy Cross3.3%Ciborio — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Ciborio2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Redland Rebels26.0%2/1
Name It24.7%2.5/1
Quizler16.9%4/1
Saratoga Flash11.6%5/1
Khozalite8.0%12/1
Junction Road6.8%8/1
Navy Cross3.3%15/1
Ciborio2.7%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 856147
🎯 Longshots: 14235678
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:8Bandari (4/1)
Place:2Uriel's Decree (3/1)
Show:6New Friend (7/2)
Other contenders:10Rotenberg (8/1), 9Save Our Soul (15/1), 5Fight And Pray (6/1)
Rest of field:1Dharmak (12/1), 3Redbad (8/1), 7Slew Vinbiz (20/1), 4Macario (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5982610
🎯 Longshots: 28610135947
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #6, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Zevi's Zone (2/1)
Place:7Sticky Mcshnickens (5/2)
Show:3Governor Dutton (7/2)
Other contenders:1Titans Edge (4/1), 4Sharpazano (10/1)
Rest of field:2Deuxieme Chance (10/1), 6Gray Astray (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357124
🎯 Longshots: 5724136
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:1Redland Rebels (2/1)
Place:5Quizler (4/1)
Show:4Khozalite (12/1)
Other contenders:2Name It (5/2), 8Saratoga Flash (5/1), 3Junction Road (8/1)
Rest of field:6Navy Cross (15/1), 7Ciborio (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851462
🎯 Longshots: 14235678
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #8 ($1 straight; box #2-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #8, #6, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #7 ($1 straight; box #5-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:2Uriel's Decree (3/1)
Place:6New Friend (7/2)
Show:8Bandari (4/1)
Other contenders:10Rotenberg (8/1), 5Fight And Pray (6/1), 3Redbad (8/1)
Rest of field:1Dharmak (12/1), 7Slew Vinbiz (20/1), 9Save Our Soul (15/1), 4Macario (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5268109
🎯 Longshots: 28610135947
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Zevi's Zone (2/1)
Place:7Sticky Mcshnickens (5/2)
Show:1Titans Edge (4/1)
Other contenders:3Governor Dutton (7/2), 6Gray Astray (15/1)
Rest of field:2Deuxieme Chance (10/1), 4Sharpazano (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357126
🎯 Longshots: 5724136
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:1Redland Rebels (2/1)
Place:2Name It (5/2)
Show:5Quizler (4/1)
Other contenders:4Khozalite (12/1), 8Saratoga Flash (5/1), 3Junction Road (8/1)
Rest of field:6Navy Cross (15/1), 7Ciborio (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 158462
🎯 Longshots: 14235678
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:2Uriel's Decree (3/1)
Place:8Bandari (4/1)
Show:6New Friend (7/2)
Other contenders:10Rotenberg (8/1), 5Fight And Pray (6/1), 1Dharmak (12/1)
Rest of field:3Redbad (8/1), 9Save Our Soul (15/1), 7Slew Vinbiz (20/1), 4Macario (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5928610
🎯 Longshots: 28610135947
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #6, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Zevi's Zone (2/1)
Place:7Sticky Mcshnickens (5/2)
Show:3Governor Dutton (7/2)
Other contenders:1Titans Edge (4/1), 4Sharpazano (10/1)
Rest of field:2Deuxieme Chance (10/1), 6Gray Astray (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357142
🎯 Longshots: 5724136
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:1Redland Rebels (2/1)
Place:2Name It (5/2)
Show:5Quizler (4/1)
Other contenders:8Saratoga Flash (5/1), 3Junction Road (8/1), 4Khozalite (12/1)
Rest of field:7Ciborio (20/1), 6Navy Cross (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 815642
🎯 Longshots: 14235678
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #2,#8,#10 (53%) / R2: #7,#5,#1 (70%) / R3: #1,#2,#5 (68%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
BANDARICIBORIODEUXIEME CHANCEDHARMAKFIGHT AND PRAY
GRAY ASTRAYJUNCTION ROADKHOZALITEMACARIONAME IT
NEW FRIENDQUIZLERREDBADREDLAND REBELSROTENBERG
SAVE OUR SOULSHARPAZANOSLEW VINBIZSTICKY MCSHNICKENSTITANS EDGE
ZEVI'S ZONE

 


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