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Fairmount Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the October 17, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%14%27%41%55%3%7%12%18%26%39%What we said — 3.1%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.1%What we said — 25.9%What we said — 38.5%What we saidWhat happened — 3.4%What happened — 8.2%What happened — 13.7%What happened — 21.0%What happened — 30.3%What happened — 44.4%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.1%3.4%
7%7.4%8.2%
12%12.5%13.7%
18%18.1%21.0%
26%25.9%30.3%
39%38.5%44.4%

Race Day Overview

Fairmount Park presents an eight-race dirt program on Saturday, October 17, 2026, with distances ranging from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. The card is built around four allowance or optional-claiming events, including the $39,000 Race 4 and Race 5 features, and several lower-level claiming races.

The most important handicapping distinction is distance. Races 1, 2, and 5 require stamina over approximately 1 1/8 miles, while Races 3, 4, 7, and 8 are 6 1/2-furlong events. Race 6 is a short 6-furlong optional claimer where early position should be especially important.

The supplied card shows no scratches or rider changes. The strongest morning-line favorites are Indyville (Post 5) in Race 4, Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) in Race 5, Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) in Race 8, and Governing Party (Post 3) in Race 3.

A published Saturday longshot assessment specifically identifies I Need More Money (Post 2) in Race 3 as a major value candidate. The horse is listed at 12-1 and is reported to be dropping from a $20,000 optional-claiming event into a non-winners-of-three claiming condition. The same report notes a recent record of two wins and two seconds from four starts this year.

The surrounding national racing news is focused on Keeneland, British Champions Day, and Breeders' Cup preparations, with no major Fairmount-specific news appearing in the available racing coverage. The last day of operation was also reported locally as October 17, making this a particularly significant closing-day program for the venue.

Weather and Track Conditions

The available local forecast information calls for rain and temperatures near 53 degrees in the Fairmount area. Another local report describes a colder weekend pattern following storms, suggesting that the racing surface could begin damp and become more drying as the afternoon progresses.

The supplied card lists every race as dirt. No official same-day track condition or maintenance bulletin was located in the available results, so the principal weather scenario is a potentially wet or drying dirt track rather than a confirmed fast or muddy surface.

If the track is sealed after rain, inside speed and tactical position could be especially valuable. If the surface remains loose or tiring, the longer races may reward horses able to settle and finish rather than horses forced into an early duel.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Fairmount's one-mile dirt oval makes the first turn an important factor in races at 1 1/8 miles and 6 1/2 furlongs. Inside posts generally offer the shortest route, but the advantage is meaningful only when a horse can secure position without being shuffled back.

The one-mile start can place outside runners at a disadvantage if they are required to use speed to clear the field. That concern is strongest in Race 2, Race 5, and Race 7, where the field size and distance can make the first turn decisive.

At six furlongs, inside and middle posts are often preferable for horses possessing early speed. At 6 1/2 furlongs, middle posts can be ideal because they allow a horse to establish position without being trapped on the rail.

No statistically verified October 2026 post-position-bias sample was located. Therefore, post analysis is based on geometry, field size, distance, and the projected pace rather than a claimed recent bias.

RACE 1 — Post 2:30/(1:30)/12:30/11:30 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 4000n2y | BUN | Purse $10,000

Pace Analysis

This 1 1/8-mile claiming race appears likely to develop at a moderate pace. Boogie Bode (Post 3), Sponge Bath (Post 5), and Joyful Ghost (Post 4) are the logical horses to secure the first flight. Rocket Hotshot (Post 6) should be able to track from just behind them.

The key question is whether Boogie Bode (Post 3) and Sponge Bath (Post 5) concede the lead or engage one another early. A contested opening would help a patient runner such as As One Does (Post 1), while a controlled pace would favor the two short-priced horses.

Key Contenders

Boogie Bode (Post 3) is one of the two 2-1 co-favorites and owns the most advantageous combination of inside position and tactical speed. The post should allow Alvin Ortiz to save ground and determine whether to press or sit behind the leaders. The concern is value: a short price is difficult to justify in a low-level race without verified recent speed figures.

Sponge Bath (Post 5) has the same 2-1 morning-line status and may be the more dangerous pace horse. Frank Reyes should have options from the middle post, and the horse does not need to lose ground immediately. If Sponge Bath (Post 5) relaxes, the distance is manageable; if forced into a prolonged duel, the favorite becomes vulnerable.

Secondary Choices

Joyful Ghost (Post 4) is a logical alternative at 5-1. The post is favorable, and the horse should be close enough to capitalize if the favorites overdo the early pace. Joyful Ghost (Post 4) is the preferred exacta saver because the price is more attractive than the two favorites.

As One Does (Post 1) is another usable contender at 6-1. The rail is helpful at this distance if Alexander Bendezu can avoid being buried behind tiring horses. This horse becomes more appealing if the pace is slower than expected.

Longshots

Rocket Hotshot (Post 6) is an 8-1 possibility for the lower half of exotics. Reynier Arrieta should be able to obtain a stalking trip, but the horse needs to improve against the two favorites.

Andthethunderrolls (Post 2) is 20-1 and needs significant form improvement. The inside post is helpful, but the horse is more attractive underneath than on top.

Dillon Rocks (Post 9) is another 20-1 runner. The outside post is not ideal at this distance, and Javier Diego may have to use energy early simply to secure position.

Stronger Together (Post 7) and Electric Charge (Post 8) are both listed at 30-1. Their best use is in very large exacta or trifecta structures, particularly if the race becomes tiring and the short-priced horses fail to finish.

Selections

Win: Joyful Ghost (Post 4)

Place: Boogie Bode (Post 3)

Show: Sponge Bath (Post 5)

Betting Strategy

The value play is Joyful Ghost (Post 4) to win if the price remains near 5-1. Use Joyful Ghost (Post 4) over Boogie Bode (Post 3), Sponge Bath (Post 5), As One Does (Post 1), and Rocket Hotshot (Post 6) in exactas. A smaller saver can use Boogie Bode (Post 3) and Sponge Bath (Post 5) over Joyful Ghost (Post 4).

RACE 2 — Post 2:55/(1:55)/12:55/11:55 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 6250n5l | BUN | Purse $12,500

Pace Analysis

Nightwind (Post 1), Get Through (Post 2), Roussette (Post 5), and Mystic Power (Post 6) form the central pace group. The race should be more competitive early than Race 1 because several runners are positioned close to the rail and have enough speed to avoid being left behind.

Get Through (Post 2) is likely to attempt a forward trip from the inside. Nightwind (Post 1) may either protect the rail or concede the lead. Roussette (Post 5) and Mystic Power (Post 6) should benefit if the inside pair become involved in an early fight.

Key Contenders

Get Through (Post 2) is the 2-1 favorite and owns the best post for a horse expected to race prominently. The main risk is traffic. If the horse is ridden aggressively and fails to clear, the long distance may expose that early expenditure.

Nightwind (Post 1) is a solid 4-1 alternative. The rail is useful at 1 1/8 miles, and Brody Martinez should be able to save ground. Nightwind (Post 1) is particularly attractive if the track favors inside speed.

Mystic Power (Post 6) is also listed at 4-1 and may receive the cleanest trip among the primary contenders. Miguel Fernandez can keep the horse outside the first flight and avoid traffic. That tactical flexibility gives Mystic Power (Post 6) a slight edge over Roussette (Post 5) as a value contender.

Secondary Choices

Roussette (Post 5) has enough tactical speed to stay involved and is another 4-1 runner with a realistic chance. The horse should be used prominently in vertical wagers, although the presence of several other forward runners creates some pace risk.

Wicked Gus (Post 3) is 8-1 and could improve by saving ground behind the leaders. Alvin Ortiz's best route is to wait for an opening rather than launch a premature move.

Weslan (Post 8) is 9-1. The outside post creates a ground-loss concern, but the horse could benefit if the race becomes contentious. Weslan (Post 8) is more appealing underneath than as a win selection.

Longshots

City Of God (Post 4) is 10-1 and needs a more effective finishing effort than the market expects. The post is acceptable, and Javier Tavares should be able to secure a stalking trip.

Rumbling (Post 7) is 20-1. The horse is disadvantaged by the outside portion of the field and needs a significant form reversal. Include only in a deep trifecta or superfecta.

Selections

Win: Mystic Power (Post 6)

Place: Nightwind (Post 1)

Show: Get Through (Post 2)

Betting Strategy

Mystic Power (Post 6) is the preferred win value if the 4-1 morning line holds. Use Mystic Power (Post 6) over Nightwind (Post 1), Get Through (Post 2), Roussette (Post 5), and Wicked Gus (Post 3). In exactas, reverse the top two selections and use Get Through (Post 2) underneath because the favorite could control the race if not pressured.

RACE 3 — Post 3:20/(2:20)/1:20/12:20 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 15000n3l | BUN | Purse $14,000

Pace Analysis

The pace should be honest, with Governing Party (Post 3), R U Joking (Post 5), Big Walt (Post 6), and King Anthony (Post 7) all having reasons to race close. Governing Party (Post 3) is the likely controlling speed, while Big Walt (Post 6) and King Anthony (Post 7) should apply pressure from the outside.

If Governing Party (Post 3) gets an uncontested lead, the favorite will be difficult to beat. If Big Walt (Post 6) and King Anthony (Post 7) force a strong early tempo, the race opens for I Need More Money (Post 2) and R U Joking (Post 5).

Key Contenders

Governing Party (Post 3) is the 1-1 favorite and logically the horse to beat. The inside-middle post allows Johanis Aranguren to establish position without being committed immediately. The major negative is the price in a race containing several plausible alternatives.

Big Walt (Post 6) is listed at 3-1 and is the most credible threat to the favorite. Miguel Fernandez can track outside and avoid traffic, but the horse must avoid giving away too much ground around the turn.

R U Joking (Post 5) is 4-1 and fits the race from a pace and post standpoint. Alexander Bendezu should be able to sit just behind the leaders. This is the best alternative if Governing Party (Post 3) is overbet.

Secondary Choices

King Anthony (Post 7) is another 4-1 runner with enough speed to remain in contention. The outside post is not ideal, but Frank Reyes should be able to position the horse outside the main pace group. King Anthony (Post 7) is a legitimate exacta candidate.

I Need More Money (Post 2) is the principal value horse. The 12-1 morning line is attractive, and published handicapping analysis identifies the horse as a major longshot based on class relief and a strong 2026 record of two wins and two seconds from four starts. The inside post should allow a ground-saving trip, and the horse becomes particularly dangerous if the favorites engage early.

Longshots

Time To Toast (Post 1) is 15-1. The rail could help, but the horse must show more finishing ability against this level.

Nations Dream (Post 4) is 20-1 and appears difficult to recommend on top. The middle post is fine, but the horse needs a substantial improvement.

Selections

Win: I Need More Money (Post 2)

Place: Governing Party (Post 3)

Show: Big Walt (Post 6)

Betting Strategy

I Need More Money (Post 2) is the best win-value play of the first half of the card. Play the horse to win at 8-1 or higher. Key I Need More Money (Post 2) over Governing Party (Post 3), Big Walt (Post 6), R U Joking (Post 5), and King Anthony (Post 7) in exactas. Use Governing Party (Post 3) and Big Walt (Post 6) over I Need More Money (Post 2) as smaller saver combinations.

RACE 4 — Post 3:45/(2:45)/1:45/12:45 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 10000n1x | BUN | Purse $39,000

Pace Analysis

Indyville (Post 5) should be involved immediately, with Rhodiums Pride (Post 1), Sawyer Fox (Post 3), and Fever Nation (Post 6) capable of applying pressure. Strope (Post 4) may settle just behind the first flight.

The race appears to favor a horse that can sit second or third rather than one that must duel. Indyville (Post 5) has the ideal middle post for such a trip, but the 1-1 price leaves little room for error.

Key Contenders

Indyville (Post 5) is the clear morning-line favorite. The post is favorable, and Brody Martinez can keep the horse in the clear. The primary concern is whether the short price accurately reflects a significant advantage over several horses with comparable tactical profiles.

Rhodiums Pride (Post 1) is 4-1 and could benefit from the rail if able to break cleanly. Miguel Fernandez should have the opportunity to either control the pace or sit behind Indyville (Post 5).

Fever Nation (Post 6) is also 4-1. Frank Reyes should be able to keep the horse outside the speed and avoid being trapped. If the favorite encounters traffic or a demanding pace, Fever Nation (Post 6) is the most likely beneficiary.

Secondary Choices

Sawyer Fox (Post 3) is 5-1 and has the best chance among the mid-priced runners to make the exacta. Jane Elliott can save ground and wait for the leaders to weaken.

Strope (Post 4) is 6-1. The horse has a favorable post and should receive a clean stalking trip, but the runner must improve enough to defeat the two shorter-priced horses.

Longshots

Verrazanointhesky (Post 2) is 20-1. The inside post is helpful, but the horse appears to need a sharp improvement. Use only in deep exotic combinations.

Selections

Win: Fever Nation (Post 6)

Place: Indyville (Post 5)

Show: Rhodiums Pride (Post 1)

Betting Strategy

Fever Nation (Post 6) is the preferred upset if the horse remains near 4-1. Use Fever Nation (Post 6) and Indyville (Post 5) in exactas over Rhodiums Pride (Post 1), Sawyer Fox (Post 3), and Strope (Post 4). Avoid taking a short win price on Indyville (Post 5) unless the paddock appearance and early track bias strongly support the favorite.

RACE 5 — Post 4:10/(3:10)/2:10/1:10 — 1830f | D | AO | OClm 10000n1x | BUN | Purse $39,000

Pace Analysis

Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) is the likely pace setter, with Zee Fire (Post 1) positioned to either press or stalk. Somethintobelieven (Post 6) could be the main outside challenger, while Pontus (Post 5) may settle in the second flight.

The distance favors a horse capable of rationing speed. Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) has the best apparent tactical setup, but the presence of Zee Fire (Post 1) means the favorite may need to work early to preserve position.

Key Contenders

Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) is the 1-1 favorite and has the best post among the principal speed horses. Javier Tavares should be able to dictate terms if the horse breaks alertly. The main handicapping issue is whether the favorite can carry its speed through 1 1/8 miles under pressure.

Zee Fire (Post 1) is the 2-1 second choice and may receive the ideal trip if Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) takes the lead. Alexander Bendezu can save ground and wait for a seam. Zee Fire (Post 1) is the most likely winner if the favorite weakens late.

Somethintobelieven (Post 6) is 4-1 and represents the best alternative for a race that becomes tactical. Brody Martinez can keep the horse outside, but ground loss is the concern.

Secondary Choices

Pontus (Post 5) is 5-1 and has a legitimate chance to complete the exacta. Victor Santiago should be able to follow the principal speed and make one run.

Wayllen Richard (Post 3) is 12-1. The horse has a useful post and could benefit from a pace collapse, but the current class level demands improvement.

Longshots

Adam Five Oh (Post 2) is 15-1. The inside post helps, but the horse needs to demonstrate greater stamina and finishing power.

Selections

Win: Zee Fire (Post 1)

Place: Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4)

Show: Somethintobelieven (Post 6)

Betting Strategy

Zee Fire (Post 1) is the preferred play if the price stays above 2-1. Use Zee Fire (Post 1) over Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4), Somethintobelieven (Post 6), Pontus (Post 5), and Wayllen Richard (Post 3). Because Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) is likely to attract heavy support, the best value may come from exactas using Zee Fire (Post 1) on top.

RACE 6 — Post 4:35/(3:35)/2:35/1:35 — 1210f | D | AO | OClm 20000b | BUM | Purse $20,000

Pace Analysis

Nandina (Post 2), Chance Taker (Post 3), Icy River (Post 6), and Sally's Suprise (Post 8) are the likely forward runners. This is a compact six-furlong event, so a strong break and first-turn position should be decisive.

Nandina (Post 2) has the best chance to secure the rail or sit just behind the leader. Icy River (Post 6) and Sally's Suprise (Post 8) may be forced to use more energy to reach position.

Key Contenders

Nandina (Post 2) is the 2-1 favorite and has the most attractive combination of post and expected pace position. Alexander Bendezu should be able to place the horse prominently without spending too much energy.

Chance Taker (Post 3) is 4-1 and could receive a nearly identical trip. Victor Santiago's task will be to keep the horse close while avoiding a premature move.

Icy River (Post 6) is another 4-1 contender. Miguel Fernandez can track the inside pair, but the horse will need to produce a strong finish if the leaders establish a reasonable pace.

Secondary Choices

Sally's Suprise (Post 8) is 5-1 and could be dangerous if the outside post allows a clean break. The horse has enough speed to stay involved, but the wide route is a concern.

Smoked (Post 5) is 6-1 and may be the best price among the secondary runners. J E Felix should be able to secure a stalking position, and the horse could capitalize if the top two favorites hook up.

Longshots

Lit Miss Hat Trick (Post 1) is 15-1. The rail is a positive, but the horse must improve sharply.

Too Much Tuesday (Post 4) is also 15-1 and has a reasonable post, but the pace setup does not appear especially favorable.

Bee Bluff (Post 7) is 15-1 and faces the most difficult trip of the three longshots because of the outside position.

Selections

Win: Smoked (Post 5)

Place: Nandina (Post 2)

Show: Chance Taker (Post 3)

Betting Strategy

Smoked (Post 5) is the value play in a race where the two favorites may receive too much support. Play Smoked (Post 5) to win at 5-1 or higher and use the horse over Nandina (Post 2), Chance Taker (Post 3), Icy River (Post 6), and Sally's Suprise (Post 8). Use Nandina (Post 2) and Chance Taker (Post 3) over Smoked (Post 5) as saver exactas.

RACE 7 — Post 5:00/(4:00)/3:00/2:00 — 1320f | D | CO | OClm 30000 | BUN | Purse $35,000

Pace Analysis

Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) and Honor Point (Post 8) are the principal speed horses. Juilliard (Post 3), More Than Destiny (Post 1), and Sweet La Crema (Post 7) should be able to track the pace.

The main pace question involves Honor Point (Post 8). The horse has the outside post and may need to use speed early to avoid losing too much ground. Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) has the more efficient post and could obtain first run.

Key Contenders

Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) is listed at 2-1 and has the strongest tactical setup. Frank Reyes should be able to place the horse near the lead without requiring an all-out effort. The horse is the preferred favorite because the post is better than that of Honor Point (Post 8).

Honor Point (Post 8) is also 2-1 and owns enough ability to win, but the outside post creates a meaningful trip risk. Alexander Bendezu must avoid both a wide journey and an overly aggressive opening quarter.

Juilliard (Post 3) is 7-1 and is the most attractive secondary contender. Brody Martinez should be able to save ground behind the speed and receive first run if the favorites soften one another.

Secondary Choices

Sweet La Crema (Post 7) is 6-1 and should receive a clear outside trip. Victor Lara will need to time the move correctly, but the horse is well positioned to benefit from a pace that develops faster than expected.

More Than Destiny (Post 1) is 10-1. The rail is useful, although the horse could become trapped behind the main speed. Alvin Ortiz should be patient and look for a seam.

Longshots

Kazoom (Post 5) is 20-1. The post is acceptable, but the horse needs a substantial improvement to win.

Xavi (Post 6) is also 20-1. The outside-middle position is manageable, yet the horse must overcome the class and pace profile.

Miri A Coincidence (Post 2) is 30-1. The inside post gives the horse a chance to save ground, but the win case is limited.

Bureau (Post 9) is 30-1 and faces the most difficult post in the field. Javier Tavares would need to produce an unusually efficient ride to overcome the wide draw.

Selections

Win: Goodasiwonswas (Post 4)

Place: Juilliard (Post 3)

Show: Honor Point (Post 8)

Betting Strategy

Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) is the preferred win selection if the horse remains at or above 2-1. Use Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) over Juilliard (Post 3), Honor Point (Post 8), Sweet La Crema (Post 7), and More Than Destiny (Post 1). Juilliard (Post 3) is the value horse for exactas and should be used prominently underneath both favorites.

RACE 8 — Post 5:25/(4:25)/3:25/2:25 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 6250n3l | BUN | Purse $11,500

Pace Analysis

Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) is the likely controlling speed, with Slink (Post 3), Quality Storm (Post 1), and Frosted Warrior (Post 8) attempting to remain close. The favorite has enough tactical speed to avoid traffic, while Slink (Post 3) should receive a favorable inside-stalking trip.

This race could become difficult for the outside closers if the track is favoring speed. If the dirt is tiring from earlier rain, however, the pace could collapse late and bring in horses such as Tuff Heart (Post 9).

Key Contenders

Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) is the 1-1 favorite and has the most obvious speed and class profile in the field. Brody Martinez should be able to place the horse just off the lead and avoid the inside congestion. The price is short, but the horse is the most likely winner on the card.

Slink (Post 3) is the best alternative at 3-1. Alexander Bendezu can save ground and wait for the favorite to show vulnerability. Slink (Post 3) is the preferred horse to oppose the favorite if the odds become too short.

Frosted Warrior (Post 8) is 8-1 and is an appealing exotic candidate. J E Felix should have a clear path, although the horse may lose ground around the turn.

Secondary Choices

Quality Storm (Post 1) is 10-1. The rail is useful, and Victor Lara may be able to secure a ground-saving trip behind the speed. This horse is a legitimate price candidate for the lower half of exactas.

Averyz Day (Post 7) is 10-1. The outside post is not ideal, but the horse could benefit if the leaders tire.

Longshots

Lou Man (Post 2) is 15-1 and may save ground, but needs improvement.

Tuff Heart (Post 9) is 15-1 and has a possible late-running angle if the pace becomes too fast.

Steve (Post 4) and Freedom Empire (Post 5) are both 20-1. Steve (Post 4) has a better post for a stalking trip, while Freedom Empire (Post 5) needs a more substantial form reversal. Both belong only in deep exotics.

Selections

Win: Slink (Post 3)

Place: Grace Met Cupid (Post 6)

Show: Frosted Warrior (Post 8)

Betting Strategy

Slink (Post 3) is the value play against the 1-1 favorite. Play Slink (Post 3) to win at 3-1 or better and use Slink (Post 3) over Grace Met Cupid (Post 6), Frosted Warrior (Post 8), Quality Storm (Post 1), and Tuff Heart (Post 9). A saver exacta should use Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) over Slink (Post 3).

Jockey Notes and Insights

Alexander Bendezu has several important mounts, including As One Does (Post 1), R U Joking (Post 5), Zee Fire (Post 1), Nandina (Post 2), Honor Point (Post 8), and Slink (Post 3). His strongest opportunities appear to be Zee Fire (Post 1), Nandina (Post 2), and Slink (Post 3), all of whom possess favorable tactical setups.

Reynier Arrieta rides Rocket Hotshot (Post 6), Big Walt (Post 6), Strope (Post 4), Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4), Too Much Tuesday (Post 4), and Tuff Heart (Post 9). His most significant assignment is Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4), where pace management over 1 1/8 miles will be critical.

Frank Reyes has mounts on Sponge Bath (Post 5), Roussette (Post 5), King Anthony (Post 7), Fever Nation (Post 6), Pontus (Post 5), Goodasiwonswas (Post 4), and Quality Storm (Post 1). Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) and Fever Nation (Post 6) offer his best winning chances based on post and projected trip.

Brody Martinez rides Andthethunderrolls (Post 2), Nightwind (Post 1), Indyville (Post 5), Somethintobelieven (Post 6), Juilliard (Post 3), and Grace Met Cupid (Post 6). His best opportunities are likely Indyville (Post 5), Nightwind (Post 1), and Grace Met Cupid (Post 6), although the latter two favorites offer limited value.

Miguel Fernandez rides Mystic Power (Post 6), Big Walt (Post 6), Rhodiums Pride (Post 1), and Icy River (Post 6). Mystic Power (Post 6) is his most attractive combination of price and projected trip.

Javier Tavares rides City Of God (Post 4), I Need More Money (Post 2), Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4), and Bureau (Post 9). I Need More Money (Post 2) is the most important value mount because of the large morning-line price and the favorable ground-saving post.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jose G. Rodriguez has Rocket Hotshot (Post 6), Big Walt (Post 6), King Anthony (Post 7), and Quality Storm (Post 1). The stable's most competitive entries appear to be Big Walt (Post 6) and King Anthony (Post 7) in Race 3, where both have tactical pace.

Maximino Quinonez has Electric Charge (Post 8), Rumbling (Post 7), R U Joking (Post 5), Zee Fire (Post 1), and Lou Man (Post 2). Zee Fire (Post 1) is the stable's clearest win candidate and benefits from the rail in a long-distance race.

James M. Watkins sends out Boogie Bode (Post 3), Roussette (Post 5), and Too Much Tuesday (Post 4). Boogie Bode (Post 3) and Roussette (Post 5) are the more prominent runners, with Boogie Bode (Post 3) receiving the better post.

Eduardo Rodriguez has Sponge Bath (Post 5), Kazoom (Post 5), and Honor Point (Post 8). Honor Point (Post 8) is the most accomplished-looking entry but must overcome the outside post in Race 7.

Robert Pompell trains Adam Five Oh (Post 2) and Somethintobelieven (Post 6). Somethintobelieven (Post 6) is the more logical contender and could benefit from a contested pace.

Pat Clay has More Than Destiny (Post 1) and Juilliard (Post 3). Juilliard (Post 3) is the more appealing runner from a betting standpoint because of the better balance between price and projected trip.

Harry E. Lynch has I Need More Money (Post 2) and Lit Miss Hat Trick (Post 1). I Need More Money (Post 2) is the key value runner for the stable and has received positive attention from current longshot handicapping analysis.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best win-value candidates are I Need More Money (Post 2) in Race 3, Fever Nation (Post 6) in Race 4, Smoked (Post 5) in Race 6, and Slink (Post 3) in Race 8.

The strongest straight favorite is Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) in Race 8, but the 1-1 morning line offers little value. The best way to use Grace Met Cupid (Post 6) is in saver exactas rather than as a large straight win wager.

The most vulnerable short-priced favorite is Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) in Race 5. Zee Fire (Post 1) has the better value profile and can receive a ground-saving trip just behind the favorite.

A practical late Pick 4 is:

Race 5: Zee Fire (Post 1), Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4), Somethintobelieven (Post 6)

Race 6: Nandina (Post 2), Chance Taker (Post 3), Smoked (Post 5), Icy River (Post 6)

Race 7: Goodasiwonswas (Post 4), Juilliard (Post 3), Honor Point (Post 8)

Race 8: Slink (Post 3), Grace Met Cupid (Post 6), Frosted Warrior (Post 8)

For a smaller ticket, the suggested Pick 4 is Zee Fire (Post 1) and Tapinyourbluejeans (Post 4) with Nandina (Post 2) and Smoked (Post 5) with Goodasiwonswas (Post 4) and Juilliard (Post 3) with Slink (Post 3) and Grace Met Cupid (Post 6).

The most attractive exacta key is I Need More Money (Post 2) over Governing Party (Post 3), Big Walt (Post 6), R U Joking (Post 5), and King Anthony (Post 7). A second value structure is Smoked (Post 5) over Nandina (Post 2), Chance Taker (Post 3), Icy River (Post 6), and Sally's Suprise (Post 8).

The overall preferred sequence is I Need More Money (Post 2), Fever Nation (Post 6), Zee Fire (Post 1), Smoked (Post 5), Goodasiwonswas (Post 4), and Slink (Post 3).

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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