Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Woodbine, October 18, 2026


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Joe West (8/5)
Place:3Eubank (5/2)
Show:4Flyonbye (3/1)
Other contenders:1Tiho Srce (8/1), 6Mighty Tanner (6/1)
Rest of field:5Lawyer Mason (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 234615
🎯 Longshots: 231456
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Beautiful Things (9/5)
Place:2Holy Anita (2/1)
Show:7Deanna (7/2)
Other contenders:3Lotta Gems (6/1), 4Bellalina (8/1)
Rest of field:6C C's Dream (15/1), 5Red High Heels (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127346
🎯 Longshots: 1247365
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:8Tuckamore (2/1)
Place:1Alpha Bond (5/2)
Show:7Jack Sparrow (8/1)
Other contenders:3Attackoffrac (9/2), 4Wasteland (10/1), 2My Jaxson Storm (6/1)
Rest of field:5Northern King (12/1), 6Friday's Grace (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 813742
🎯 Longshots: 81734256
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:2Secured Assets (6/1)
Place:1Street Legend (2/1)
Show:5Townline Bertie (5/2)
Other contenders:6Shogun Sam (3/1), 7Morrisseau (8/1)
Rest of field:4Start Running (8/1), 3G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152674
🎯 Longshots: 1562743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3Happy To Be Here (9/5)
Place:1Auntie's Bambino (5/2)
Show:6Starship Salute (3/1)
Other contenders:4Lohan (6/1), 5Chasing Memories (20/1)
Rest of field:2Fightin To Survive (20/1), 7Stormover The Nile (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 316475
🎯 Longshots: 3165742
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Yoshii (2/1)
Place:4Cyclone Taylor (5/2)
Show:1Adir (9/2)
Other contenders:8You Mule (6/1), 3Gone With Duwyn (12/1), 7Copa De Plata (8/1)
Rest of field:6Mor Joe's Spirit (12/1), 5Prince Almasty (20/1), 9Extraordinary One (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241873
🎯 Longshots: 243761958
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Fancy Pearls (1/1)
Place:6Sugar Bunny (5/1)
Show:3Seraphim (3/1)
Other contenders:7Quality Ami (6/1), 1Golden Sunset (10/1)
Rest of field:2Radar Woman (12/1), 4Strictly Jamaican (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 563712
🎯 Longshots: 5316724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Souper Survivor (6/5)
Place:2Marvellous Marvin (2/1)
Show:4Magical Trickster (4/1)
Other contenders:5Signature Winner (6/1), 1It Wasn't A Bluff (8/1)
Rest of field:6Slovan (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 324156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:3Sarayu (9/5)
Place:2Stunningly Perfect (2/1)
Show:5Tweeternity (9/2)
Other contenders:4Tea Biscuit (6/1), 6Champagne Sunday (8/1)
Rest of field:1Whitemudwest (10/1), 7Matoaka (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 325461
🎯 Longshots: 3216547
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 3/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $65,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Exude (5/2)
Place:5Twowaycrossing (6/1)
Show:4Call Me Sue (3/1)
Other contenders:6Zabo (8/1), 7Breaking Alone (4/1), 8Offlee Naughty (8/1)
Rest of field:1Sluggernaut (8/1), 3One More Brew (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245768
🎯 Longshots: 23861475
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Joe West (8/5) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:3Eubank (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -27%
Show:4Flyonbye (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Other contenders:1Tiho Srce (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 6Mighty Tanner (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%
Rest of field:5Lawyer Mason (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -32%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Joe West — 32.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Joe West32.1% ◀Eubank — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Eubank22.6%Flyonbye — 19.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Flyonbye19.3%Tiho Srce — 12.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Tiho Srce12.3%Mighty Tanner — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Mighty Tanner8.2%Lawyer Mason — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Lawyer Mason5.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Joe West32.1%1.6/1
Eubank22.6%2.5/1
Flyonbye19.3%3/1
Tiho Srce12.3%8/1
Mighty Tanner8.2%6/1
Lawyer Mason5.4%12/1
🌧️ Off-track: 234615
🎯 Longshots: 231456
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:1Beautiful Things (9/5) 46% · fair 1-1 overlay +53%
Place:7Deanna (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:3Lotta Gems (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:2Holy Anita (2/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -78%, 4Bellalina (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:6C C's Dream (15/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -75%, 5Red High Heels (20/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -67%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Beautiful Things — 45.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Beautiful Things45.9% ◀Deanna — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Deanna19.4%Lotta Gems — 14.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Lotta Gems14.8%Holy Anita — 9.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Holy Anita9.9%Bellalina — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Bellalina6.6%C C'S Dream — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1C C'S Dream1.6%Red High Heels — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Red High Heels1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Beautiful Things45.9%1.8/1
Deanna19.4%3.5/1
Lotta Gems14.8%6/1
Holy Anita9.9%2/1
Bellalina6.6%8/1
C C'S Dream1.6%15/1
Red High Heels1.6%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBeautiful Things: model 45.9% vs market 28.0% (+18.0 points)Beautiful Things+18.0Deanna: model 19.4% vs market 17.4% (+2.0 points)Deanna+2.0Lotta Gems: model 14.8% vs market 11.2% (+3.7 points)Lotta Gems+3.7Holy Anita: model 9.9% vs market 26.1% (-16.2 points)Holy Anita-16.2Bellalina: model 6.6% vs market 8.7% (-2.1 points)Bellalina-2.1C C'S Dream: model 1.6% vs market 4.9% (-3.3 points)C C'S Dream-3.3Red High Heels: model 1.6% vs market 3.7% (-2.1 points)Red High Heels-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Beautiful Things45.9%28.0%+18.0
Deanna19.4%17.4%+2.0
Lotta Gems14.8%11.2%+3.7
Holy Anita9.9%26.1%-16.2
Bellalina6.6%8.7%-2.1
C C'S Dream1.6%4.9%-3.3
Red High Heels1.6%3.7%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 127346
🎯 Longshots: 1247365
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:8Tuckamore (2/1) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:1Alpha Bond (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -33%
Show:7Jack Sparrow (8/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +64%
Other contenders:3Attackoffrac (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -58%, 4Wasteland (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 2My Jaxson Storm (6/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -64%
Rest of field:5Northern King (12/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -59%, 6Friday's Grace (20/1) 1% · fair 129-1 underlay -84%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tuckamore — 35.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Tuckamore35.8% ◀Alpha Bond — 21.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Alpha Bond21.3%Jack Sparrow — 17.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Jack Sparrow17.0%Attackoffrac — 8.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Attackoffrac8.6%Wasteland — 7.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Wasteland7.6%My Jaxson Storm — 5.7% win probability, morning line 6/1My Jaxson Storm5.7%Northern King — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Northern King3.3%Friday'S Grace — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Friday'S Grace0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tuckamore35.8%2/1
Alpha Bond21.3%2.5/1
Jack Sparrow17.0%8/1
Attackoffrac8.6%4.5/1
Wasteland7.6%10/1
My Jaxson Storm5.7%6/1
Northern King3.3%12/1
Friday'S Grace0.8%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTuckamore: model 35.8% vs market 26.2% (+9.6 points)Tuckamore+9.6Alpha Bond: model 21.3% vs market 22.5% (-1.2 points)Alpha Bond-1.2Jack Sparrow: model 17.0% vs market 8.7% (+8.2 points)Jack Sparrow+8.2Attackoffrac: model 8.6% vs market 14.3% (-5.7 points)Attackoffrac-5.7Wasteland: model 7.6% vs market 7.2% (+0.4 points)Wasteland+0.4My Jaxson Storm: model 5.7% vs market 11.2% (-5.6 points)My Jaxson Storm-5.6Northern King: model 3.3% vs market 6.1% (-2.7 points)Northern King-2.7Friday'S Grace: model 0.8% vs market 3.7% (-3.0 points)Friday'S Grace-3.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tuckamore35.8%26.2%+9.6
Alpha Bond21.3%22.5%-1.2
Jack Sparrow17.0%8.7%+8.2
Attackoffrac8.6%14.3%-5.7
Wasteland7.6%7.2%+0.4
My Jaxson Storm5.7%11.2%-5.6
Northern King3.3%6.1%-2.7
Friday'S Grace0.8%3.7%-3.0
🌧️ Off-track: 813724
🎯 Longshots: 81734256
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:2Secured Assets (6/1) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +314%
Place:5Townline Bertie (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -26%
Show:1Street Legend (2/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -72%
Other contenders:6Shogun Sam (3/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -66%, 7Morrisseau (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -40%
Rest of field:4Start Running (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%, 3G Note Jeff (20/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -63%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Secured Assets — 40.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Secured Assets40.9% ◀Townline Bertie — 22.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Townline Bertie22.8%Street Legend — 12.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Street Legend12.3%Shogun Sam — 10.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Shogun Sam10.2%Morrisseau — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Morrisseau7.0%Start Running — 4.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Start Running4.9%G Note Jeff — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1G Note Jeff1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Secured Assets40.9%6/1
Townline Bertie22.8%2.5/1
Street Legend12.3%2/1
Shogun Sam10.2%3/1
Morrisseau7.0%8/1
Start Running4.9%8/1
G Note Jeff1.8%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSecured Assets: model 40.9% vs market 11.1% (+29.7 points)Secured Assets+29.7Townline Bertie: model 22.8% vs market 22.3% (+0.5 points)Townline Bertie+0.5Street Legend: model 12.3% vs market 26.0% (-13.7 points)Street Legend-13.7Shogun Sam: model 10.2% vs market 19.5% (-9.3 points)Shogun Sam-9.3Morrisseau: model 7.0% vs market 8.7% (-1.6 points)Morrisseau-1.6Start Running: model 4.9% vs market 8.7% (-3.8 points)Start Running-3.8G Note Jeff: model 1.8% vs market 3.7% (-1.9 points)G Note Jeff-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Secured Assets40.9%11.1%+29.7
Townline Bertie22.8%22.3%+0.5
Street Legend12.3%26.0%-13.7
Shogun Sam10.2%19.5%-9.3
Morrisseau7.0%8.7%-1.6
Start Running4.9%8.7%-3.8
G Note Jeff1.8%3.7%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 251674
🎯 Longshots: 1562743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3Happy To Be Here (9/5) 41% · fair 3-2
Place:1Auntie's Bambino (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38%
Show:6Starship Salute (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:4Lohan (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Chasing Memories (20/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -33%
Rest of field:2Fightin To Survive (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%, 7Stormover The Nile (8/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -80%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Happy To Be Here — 40.7% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Happy To Be Here40.7% ◀Auntie'S Bambino — 19.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Auntie'S Bambino19.9%Starship Salute — 18.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Starship Salute18.9%Lohan — 12.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Lohan12.1%Chasing Memories — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Chasing Memories3.3%Fightin To Survive — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Fightin To Survive2.7%Stormover The Nile — 2.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Stormover The Nile2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Happy To Be Here40.7%1.8/1
Auntie'S Bambino19.9%2.5/1
Starship Salute18.9%3/1
Lohan12.1%6/1
Chasing Memories3.3%20/1
Fightin To Survive2.7%20/1
Stormover The Nile2.4%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHappy To Be Here: model 40.7% vs market 28.8% (+11.9 points)Happy To Be Here+11.9Auntie'S Bambino: model 19.9% vs market 23.0% (-3.1 points)Auntie'S Bambino-3.1Starship Salute: model 18.9% vs market 20.1% (-1.2 points)Starship Salute-1.2Lohan: model 12.1% vs market 11.5% (+0.6 points)Lohan+0.6Chasing Memories: model 3.3% vs market 3.8% (-0.6 points)Chasing Memories-0.6Fightin To Survive: model 2.7% vs market 3.8% (-1.1 points)Fightin To Survive-1.1Stormover The Nile: model 2.4% vs market 8.9% (-6.5 points)Stormover The Nile-6.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Happy To Be Here40.7%28.8%+11.9
Auntie'S Bambino19.9%23.0%-3.1
Starship Salute18.9%20.1%-1.2
Lohan12.1%11.5%+0.6
Chasing Memories3.3%3.8%-0.6
Fightin To Survive2.7%3.8%-1.1
Stormover The Nile2.4%8.9%-6.5
🌧️ Off-track: 316475
🎯 Longshots: 3165742
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Yoshii (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4Cyclone Taylor (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -39%
Show:1Adir (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:8You Mule (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 3Gone With Duwyn (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 6Mor Joe's Spirit (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Rest of field:7Copa De Plata (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%, 5Prince Almasty (20/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -56%, 9Extraordinary One (20/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -69%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Yoshii — 30.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Yoshii30.3% ◀Cyclone Taylor — 19.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Cyclone Taylor19.6%Adir — 14.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Adir14.7%You Mule — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1You Mule9.6%Gone With Duwyn — 8.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Gone With Duwyn8.4%Mor Joe'S Spirit — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Mor Joe'S Spirit6.9%Copa De Plata — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Copa De Plata6.7%Prince Almasty — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Prince Almasty2.2%Extraordinary One — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Extraordinary One1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Yoshii30.3%2/1
Cyclone Taylor19.6%2.5/1
Adir14.7%4.5/1
You Mule9.6%6/1
Gone With Duwyn8.4%12/1
Mor Joe'S Spirit6.9%12/1
Copa De Plata6.7%8/1
Prince Almasty2.2%20/1
Extraordinary One1.5%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherYoshii: model 30.3% vs market 25.6% (+4.7 points)Yoshii+4.7Cyclone Taylor: model 19.6% vs market 21.9% (-2.3 points)Cyclone Taylor-2.3Adir: model 14.7% vs market 13.9% (+0.8 points)Adir+0.8You Mule: model 9.6% vs market 11.0% (-1.4 points)You Mule-1.4Gone With Duwyn: model 8.4% vs market 5.9% (+2.5 points)Gone With Duwyn+2.5Mor Joe'S Spirit: model 6.9% vs market 5.9% (+1.0 points)Mor Joe'S Spirit+1.0Copa De Plata: model 6.7% vs market 8.5% (-1.8 points)Copa De Plata-1.8Prince Almasty: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Prince Almasty-1.5Extraordinary One: model 1.5% vs market 3.7% (-2.1 points)Extraordinary One-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Yoshii30.3%25.6%+4.7
Cyclone Taylor19.6%21.9%-2.3
Adir14.7%13.9%+0.8
You Mule9.6%11.0%-1.4
Gone With Duwyn8.4%5.9%+2.5
Mor Joe'S Spirit6.9%5.9%+1.0
Copa De Plata6.7%8.5%-1.8
Prince Almasty2.2%3.7%-1.5
Extraordinary One1.5%3.7%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 241873
🎯 Longshots: 243761958
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Fancy Pearls (1/1) 50% · fair 5-5
Place:6Sugar Bunny (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:1Golden Sunset (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:7Quality Ami (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%, 3Seraphim (3/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -73%
Rest of field:2Radar Woman (12/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -71%, 4Strictly Jamaican (20/1) 1% · fair 187-2 underlay -79%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fancy Pearls — 50.2% win probability, morning line 1/1Fancy Pearls50.2% ◀Sugar Bunny — 17.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Sugar Bunny17.2%Golden Sunset — 10.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Golden Sunset10.9%Quality Ami — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Quality Ami9.9%Seraphim — 8.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Seraphim8.3%Radar Woman — 2.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Radar Woman2.3%Strictly Jamaican — 1.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Strictly Jamaican1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fancy Pearls50.2%1/1
Sugar Bunny17.2%5/1
Golden Sunset10.9%10/1
Quality Ami9.9%6/1
Seraphim8.3%3/1
Radar Woman2.3%12/1
Strictly Jamaican1.1%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFancy Pearls: model 50.2% vs market 39.2% (+11.0 points)Fancy Pearls+11.0Sugar Bunny: model 17.2% vs market 13.1% (+4.1 points)Sugar Bunny+4.1Golden Sunset: model 10.9% vs market 7.1% (+3.8 points)Golden Sunset+3.8Quality Ami: model 9.9% vs market 11.2% (-1.3 points)Quality Ami-1.3Seraphim: model 8.3% vs market 19.6% (-11.3 points)Seraphim-11.3Radar Woman: model 2.3% vs market 6.0% (-3.7 points)Radar Woman-3.7Strictly Jamaican: model 1.1% vs market 3.7% (-2.7 points)Strictly Jamaican-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fancy Pearls50.2%39.2%+11.0
Sugar Bunny17.2%13.1%+4.1
Golden Sunset10.9%7.1%+3.8
Quality Ami9.9%11.2%-1.3
Seraphim8.3%19.6%-11.3
Radar Woman2.3%6.0%-3.7
Strictly Jamaican1.1%3.7%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 536712
🎯 Longshots: 5316724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Souper Survivor (6/5) 41% · fair 3-2
Place:4Magical Trickster (4/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +33%
Show:2Marvellous Marvin (2/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -53%
Other contenders:5Signature Winner (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -45%, 1It Wasn't A Bluff (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:6Slovan (20/1) 1% · fair 160-1 underlay -88%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Souper Survivor — 41.1% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Souper Survivor41.1% ◀Magical Trickster — 24.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Magical Trickster24.9%Marvellous Marvin — 19.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Marvellous Marvin19.0%Signature Winner — 8.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Signature Winner8.4%It Wasn'T A Bluff — 5.9% win probability, morning line 8/1It Wasn'T A Bluff5.9%Slovan — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Slovan0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Souper Survivor41.1%1.2/1
Magical Trickster24.9%4/1
Marvellous Marvin19.0%2/1
Signature Winner8.4%6/1
It Wasn'T A Bluff5.9%8/1
Slovan0.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSouper Survivor: model 41.1% vs market 35.3% (+5.8 points)Souper Survivor+5.8Magical Trickster: model 24.9% vs market 15.5% (+9.4 points)Magical Trickster+9.4Marvellous Marvin: model 19.0% vs market 25.9% (-6.8 points)Marvellous Marvin-6.8Signature Winner: model 8.4% vs market 11.1% (-2.7 points)Signature Winner-2.7It Wasn'T A Bluff: model 5.9% vs market 8.6% (-2.7 points)It Wasn'T A Bluff-2.7Slovan: model 0.6% vs market 3.7% (-3.1 points)Slovan-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Souper Survivor41.1%35.3%+5.8
Magical Trickster24.9%15.5%+9.4
Marvellous Marvin19.0%25.9%-6.8
Signature Winner8.4%11.1%-2.7
It Wasn'T A Bluff5.9%8.6%-2.7
Slovan0.6%3.7%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 324156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Sarayu (9/5) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:2Stunningly Perfect (2/1) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -47%
Show:5Tweeternity (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Tea Biscuit (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 6Champagne Sunday (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%
Rest of field:1Whitemudwest (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -44%, 7Matoaka (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sarayu — 31.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Sarayu31.9% ◀Stunningly Perfect — 21.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Stunningly Perfect21.0%Tweeternity — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Tweeternity16.1%Tea Biscuit — 15.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Tea Biscuit15.0%Champagne Sunday — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Champagne Sunday8.2%Whitemudwest — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Whitemudwest5.3%Matoaka — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Matoaka2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sarayu31.9%1.8/1
Stunningly Perfect21.0%2/1
Tweeternity16.1%4.5/1
Tea Biscuit15.0%6/1
Champagne Sunday8.2%8/1
Whitemudwest5.3%10/1
Matoaka2.5%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSarayu: model 31.9% vs market 28.2% (+3.6 points)Sarayu+3.6Stunningly Perfect: model 21.0% vs market 26.4% (-5.3 points)Stunningly Perfect-5.3Tweeternity: model 16.1% vs market 14.4% (+1.7 points)Tweeternity+1.7Tea Biscuit: model 15.0% vs market 11.3% (+3.7 points)Tea Biscuit+3.7Champagne Sunday: model 8.2% vs market 8.8% (-0.6 points)Champagne Sunday-0.6Whitemudwest: model 5.3% vs market 7.2% (-1.9 points)Whitemudwest-1.9Matoaka: model 2.5% vs market 3.8% (-1.3 points)Matoaka-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sarayu31.9%28.2%+3.6
Stunningly Perfect21.0%26.4%-5.3
Tweeternity16.1%14.4%+1.7
Tea Biscuit15.0%11.3%+3.7
Champagne Sunday8.2%8.8%-0.6
Whitemudwest5.3%7.2%-1.9
Matoaka2.5%3.8%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 325461
🎯 Longshots: 3216547
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 3/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $65,000
Win:2Exude (5/2) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:4Call Me Sue (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -51%
Show:8Offlee Naughty (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:5Twowaycrossing (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 6Zabo (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 7Breaking Alone (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -63%
Rest of field:1Sluggernaut (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -37%, 3One More Brew (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Exude — 31.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Exude31.2% ◀Call Me Sue — 13.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Call Me Sue13.9%Offlee Naughty — 13.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Offlee Naughty13.2%Twowaycrossing — 12.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Twowaycrossing12.8%Zabo — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Zabo9.1%Breaking Alone — 8.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Breaking Alone8.5%Sluggernaut — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Sluggernaut7.2%One More Brew — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1One More Brew4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Exude31.2%2.5/1
Call Me Sue13.9%3/1
Offlee Naughty13.2%8/1
Twowaycrossing12.8%6/1
Zabo9.1%8/1
Breaking Alone8.5%4/1
Sluggernaut7.2%8/1
One More Brew4.0%20/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherExude: model 31.2% vs market 22.7% (+8.5 points)Exude+8.5Call Me Sue: model 13.9% vs market 19.8% (-5.9 points)Call Me Sue-5.9Offlee Naughty: model 13.2% vs market 8.8% (+4.4 points)Offlee Naughty+4.4Twowaycrossing: model 12.8% vs market 11.3% (+1.4 points)Twowaycrossing+1.4Zabo: model 9.1% vs market 8.8% (+0.3 points)Zabo+0.3Breaking Alone: model 8.5% vs market 15.9% (-7.3 points)Breaking Alone-7.3Sluggernaut: model 7.2% vs market 8.8% (-1.6 points)Sluggernaut-1.6One More Brew: model 4.0% vs market 3.8% (+0.2 points)One More Brew+0.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Exude31.2%22.7%+8.5
Call Me Sue13.9%19.8%-5.9
Offlee Naughty13.2%8.8%+4.4
Twowaycrossing12.8%11.3%+1.4
Zabo9.1%8.8%+0.3
Breaking Alone8.5%15.9%-7.3
Sluggernaut7.2%8.8%-1.6
One More Brew4.0%3.8%+0.2
🌧️ Off-track: 247586
🎯 Longshots: 23861475
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Joe West (8/5)
Place:4Flyonbye (3/1)
Show:3Eubank (5/2)
Other contenders:1Tiho Srce (8/1), 5Lawyer Mason (12/1)
Rest of field:6Mighty Tanner (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 234615
🎯 Longshots: 231456
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:1Beautiful Things (9/5)
Place:2Holy Anita (2/1)
Show:7Deanna (7/2)
Other contenders:3Lotta Gems (6/1), 4Bellalina (8/1)
Rest of field:6C C's Dream (15/1), 5Red High Heels (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127346
🎯 Longshots: 1247365
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:7Jack Sparrow (8/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:8Tuckamore (2/1)
Show:1Alpha Bond (5/2)
Other contenders:5Northern King (12/1), 3Attackoffrac (9/2), 4Wasteland (10/1)
Rest of field:2My Jaxson Storm (6/1), 6Friday's Grace (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 817324
🎯 Longshots: 81734256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:2Secured Assets (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:5Townline Bertie (5/2)
Show:7Morrisseau (8/1)
Other contenders:1Street Legend (2/1), 6Shogun Sam (3/1)
Rest of field:4Start Running (8/1), 3G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512674
🎯 Longshots: 1562743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3Happy To Be Here (9/5)
Place:6Starship Salute (3/1)
Show:4Lohan (6/1)
Other contenders:1Auntie's Bambino (5/2), 2Fightin To Survive (20/1)
Rest of field:7Stormover The Nile (8/1), 5Chasing Memories (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361472
🎯 Longshots: 3165742
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Yoshii (2/1)
Place:4Cyclone Taylor (5/2)
Show:1Adir (9/2)
Other contenders:8You Mule (6/1), 6Mor Joe's Spirit (12/1), 3Gone With Duwyn (12/1)
Rest of field:7Copa De Plata (8/1), 5Prince Almasty (20/1), 9Extraordinary One (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241876
🎯 Longshots: 243761958
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Fancy Pearls (1/1)
Place:6Sugar Bunny (5/1)
Show:7Quality Ami (6/1)
Other contenders:1Golden Sunset (10/1), 3Seraphim (3/1)
Rest of field:2Radar Woman (12/1), 4Strictly Jamaican (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 563712
🎯 Longshots: 5316724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Souper Survivor (6/5)
Place:2Marvellous Marvin (2/1)
Show:5Signature Winner (6/1)
Other contenders:4Magical Trickster (4/1), 1It Wasn't A Bluff (8/1)
Rest of field:6Slovan (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 324156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Sarayu (9/5)
Place:2Stunningly Perfect (2/1)
Show:1Whitemudwest (10/1)
Other contenders:4Tea Biscuit (6/1), 6Champagne Sunday (8/1)
Rest of field:5Tweeternity (9/2), 7Matoaka (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 3216547
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 3/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $65,000
Win:2Exude (5/2)
Place:8Offlee Naughty (8/1)
Show:6Zabo (8/1)
Other contenders:4Call Me Sue (3/1), 5Twowaycrossing (6/1), 7Breaking Alone (4/1)
Rest of field:3One More Brew (20/1), 1Sluggernaut (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 247586
🎯 Longshots: 23861475
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #8 over #1 ($1 straight; box #8-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
Race 9AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
55Chasing Memories ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—6.2%+21.5%0.27%$0.27
TOTAL across 1 play:0.3%$0.27
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:4Flyonbye (3/1)
Place:2Joe West (8/5)
Show:3Eubank (5/2)
Other contenders:6Mighty Tanner (6/1), 1Tiho Srce (8/1)
Rest of field:5Lawyer Mason (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 234615
🎯 Longshots: 231456
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:1Beautiful Things (9/5)
Place:2Holy Anita (2/1)
Show:3Lotta Gems (6/1)
Other contenders:7Deanna (7/2), 4Bellalina (8/1)
Rest of field:6C C's Dream (15/1), 5Red High Heels (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127346
🎯 Longshots: 1247365
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:8Tuckamore (2/1)
Place:7Jack Sparrow (8/1)
Show:1Alpha Bond (5/2)
Other contenders:3Attackoffrac (9/2), 4Wasteland (10/1), 2My Jaxson Storm (6/1)
Rest of field:5Northern King (12/1), 6Friday's Grace (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 813724
🎯 Longshots: 81734256
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Townline Bertie (5/2)
Place:1Street Legend (2/1)
Show:2Secured Assets (6/1)
Other contenders:6Shogun Sam (3/1), 7Morrisseau (8/1)
Rest of field:4Start Running (8/1), 3G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 156274
🎯 Longshots: 1562743
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3Happy To Be Here (9/5)
Place:1Auntie's Bambino (5/2)
Show:4Lohan (6/1)
Other contenders:6Starship Salute (3/1), 2Fightin To Survive (20/1)
Rest of field:5Chasing Memories (20/1), 7Stormover The Nile (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 316472
🎯 Longshots: 3165742
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:1Adir (9/2)
Place:2Yoshii (2/1)
Show:4Cyclone Taylor (5/2)
Other contenders:6Mor Joe's Spirit (12/1), 3Gone With Duwyn (12/1), 8You Mule (6/1)
Rest of field:7Copa De Plata (8/1), 5Prince Almasty (20/1), 9Extraordinary One (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241876
🎯 Longshots: 243761958
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Fancy Pearls (1/1)
Place:6Sugar Bunny (5/1)
Show:3Seraphim (3/1)
Other contenders:7Quality Ami (6/1), 1Golden Sunset (10/1)
Rest of field:2Radar Woman (12/1), 4Strictly Jamaican (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536712
🎯 Longshots: 5316724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Souper Survivor (6/5)
Place:2Marvellous Marvin (2/1)
Show:4Magical Trickster (4/1)
Other contenders:5Signature Winner (6/1), 1It Wasn't A Bluff (8/1)
Rest of field:6Slovan (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 324156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Sarayu (9/5)
Place:4Tea Biscuit (6/1)
Show:2Stunningly Perfect (2/1)
Other contenders:1Whitemudwest (10/1), 5Tweeternity (9/2)
Rest of field:6Champagne Sunday (8/1), 7Matoaka (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 3216547
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 3/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $65,000
Win:2Exude (5/2)
Place:4Call Me Sue (3/1)
Show:6Zabo (8/1)
Other contenders:8Offlee Naughty (8/1), 3One More Brew (20/1), 1Sluggernaut (8/1)
Rest of field:7Breaking Alone (4/1), 5Twowaycrossing (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 247685
🎯 Longshots: 23861475
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Joe West (8/5)
Place:4Flyonbye (3/1)
Show:3Eubank (5/2)
Other contenders:1Tiho Srce (8/1), 6Mighty Tanner (6/1)
Rest of field:5Lawyer Mason (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 234615
🎯 Longshots: 231456
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:1Beautiful Things (9/5)
Place:2Holy Anita (2/1)
Show:3Lotta Gems (6/1)
Other contenders:7Deanna (7/2), 4Bellalina (8/1)
Rest of field:6C C's Dream (15/1), 5Red High Heels (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127346
🎯 Longshots: 1247365
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:8Tuckamore (2/1)
Place:1Alpha Bond (5/2)
Show:7Jack Sparrow (8/1)
Other contenders:3Attackoffrac (9/2), 4Wasteland (10/1), 2My Jaxson Storm (6/1)
Rest of field:5Northern King (12/1), 6Friday's Grace (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 813724
🎯 Longshots: 81734256
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:2Secured Assets (6/1)
Place:5Townline Bertie (5/2)
Show:1Street Legend (2/1)
Other contenders:7Morrisseau (8/1), 6Shogun Sam (3/1)
Rest of field:4Start Running (8/1), 3G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512674
🎯 Longshots: 1562743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:3Happy To Be Here (9/5)
Place:1Auntie's Bambino (5/2)
Show:4Lohan (6/1)
Other contenders:6Starship Salute (3/1), 2Fightin To Survive (20/1)
Rest of field:5Chasing Memories (20/1), 7Stormover The Nile (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 316472
🎯 Longshots: 3165742
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Yoshii (2/1)
Place:1Adir (9/2)
Show:4Cyclone Taylor (5/2)
Other contenders:8You Mule (6/1), 6Mor Joe's Spirit (12/1), 3Gone With Duwyn (12/1)
Rest of field:7Copa De Plata (8/1), 5Prince Almasty (20/1), 9Extraordinary One (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241876
🎯 Longshots: 243761958
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:5Fancy Pearls (1/1)
Place:6Sugar Bunny (5/1)
Show:7Quality Ami (6/1)
Other contenders:1Golden Sunset (10/1), 3Seraphim (3/1)
Rest of field:2Radar Woman (12/1), 4Strictly Jamaican (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536712
🎯 Longshots: 5316724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:3Souper Survivor (6/5)
Place:2Marvellous Marvin (2/1)
Show:4Magical Trickster (4/1)
Other contenders:5Signature Winner (6/1), 1It Wasn't A Bluff (8/1)
Rest of field:6Slovan (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324516
🎯 Longshots: 324156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:2Stunningly Perfect (2/1)
Place:3Sarayu (9/5)
Show:4Tea Biscuit (6/1)
Other contenders:5Tweeternity (9/2), 6Champagne Sunday (8/1)
Rest of field:1Whitemudwest (10/1), 7Matoaka (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 325461
🎯 Longshots: 3216547
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 3/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $65,000
Win:2Exude (5/2)
Place:4Call Me Sue (3/1)
Show:6Zabo (8/1)
Other contenders:8Offlee Naughty (8/1), 3One More Brew (20/1), 7Breaking Alone (4/1)
Rest of field:5Twowaycrossing (6/1), 1Sluggernaut (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 247568
🎯 Longshots: 23861475
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#7 (65%) / R3: #8,#1,#7 (74%) / R4: #2,#5 (64%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #8,#1,#7 (74%) / R4: #2,#5 (64%) / R5: #3,#1 (61%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #2,#4,#1 (65%) / R7: #5,#6 (67%) / R8: #3,#4 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #5,#6 (67%) / R8: #3,#4 (66%) / R9: #3,#2,#5 (69%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#7 (65%) / R3: #8,#1,#7 (74%) / R4: #2,#5 (64%) / R5: #3,#1 (61%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #3,#1 (61%) / R6: #2,#4,#1 (65%) / R7: #5,#6 (67%) / R8: #3,#4 (66%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADIRALPHA BONDATTACKOFFRACAUNTIE'S BAMBINOBEAUTIFUL THINGS
BREAKING ALONEC C'S DREAMCALL ME SUECHAMPAGNE SUNDAYCHASING MEMORIES
CYCLONE TAYLORDEANNAEUBANKEXTRAORDINARY ONEEXUDE
FIGHTIN TO SURVIVEFLYONBYEFRIDAY'S GRACEG NOTE JEFFGOLDEN SUNSET
HAPPY TO BE HEREHOLY ANITAIT WASN'T A BLUFFJACK SPARROWJOE WEST
LOHANLOTTA GEMSMAGICAL TRICKSTERMARVELLOUS MARVINMATOAKA
MOR JOE'S SPIRITMORRISSEAUMY JAXSON STORMNORTHERN KINGOFFLEE NAUGHTY
PRINCE ALMASTYQUALITY AMIRADAR WOMANRED HIGH HEELSSARAYU
SERAPHIMSHOGUN SAMSIGNATURE WINNERSLOVANSLUGGERNAUT
STARSHIP SALUTESTART RUNNINGSTORMOVER THE NILESTREET LEGENDSTRICTLY JAMAICAN
SUGAR BUNNYTEA BISCUITTIHO SRCETOWNLINE BERTIETUCKAMORE
TWOWAYCROSSINGWASTELANDWHITEMUDWESTYOSHIIYOU MULE

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback