Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Parx Racing, October 21, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (3/1)
Place:3Little Lance (6/1)
Show:5Romantic Gamble (9/2)
Other contenders:2Lord Winsalot (5/1), 1Skinny Joey (6/1), 9Always Gambling (6/1)
Rest of field:10Capt. Candy (8/1), 7Omaha Eight (10/1), 6Mr. Mendelssohn (10/1), 8Z Storm Is Coming (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 435219
🎯 Longshots: 47108362159
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Weekend Honor (2/1)
Place:1Luv Queen E (9/2)
Show:2California Smoke (5/1)
Other contenders:10Miss Tifeye (6/1), 4Miskita (6/1), 3Cash The Check (6/1), 8Alyvia Mavis (8/1)
Rest of field:5Bective Abbey (10/1), 7Uptown Art (15/1), 12Sushi (20/1), 9Keystormrising (20/1), 11Little Carley (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6121043
🎯 Longshots: 658127121043911
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Show's Last Gift (5/2)
Place:3South Street Sally (3/1)
Show:1Edge Of Hope (5/1)
Other contenders:5Diamond Dash (5/1), 4Victoria's Song (9/2)
Rest of field:6Tristar Empress (12/1), 2Mochada (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731546
🎯 Longshots: 7153462
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Mo Attitude (2/1)
Place:5Chiquita's Way (5/2)
Show:2Spoonbill (3/1)
Other contenders:3Synoptic (5/1), 1Joyful Joyce (6/1)
Rest of field:6Panama Limited (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452316
🎯 Longshots: 452631
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:1Cowboy Mike (2/1)
Place:3Recker Point (7/2)
Show:5Thorsness (5/2)
Other contenders:7Silent Mode (5/1), 2Best Bet (6/1)
Rest of field:6Prince Colton (6/1), 4Nixon Joy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135726
🎯 Longshots: 1352746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Tariba Dream (5/2)
Place:5Got Game (4/1)
Show:4Racey Ruby (5/1)
Other contenders:8I Can Run (9/2), 7Jess's Moment (8/1), 3Lost Love (10/1)
Rest of field:6Magical Trick (10/1), 1Girvinized (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254873
🎯 Longshots: 25736814
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Point Barrow (5/2)
Place:6Vino Gray (4/1)
Show:1Quetzal Island (3/1)
Other contenders:2It's Authentic (8/1), 5Corn King (5/1), 8Captain Oats (6/1)
Rest of field:3Backside (15/1), 4Lecanto (15/1), 9Adios Buster (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716528
🎯 Longshots: 723165498
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:2Bellanova (9/2)
Place:6Kool Karoline (4/1)
Show:8Tiz Purple (7/2)
Other contenders:1Eake (5/1), 4Angie's Reward (8/1), 3Whatta World (10/1)
Rest of field:7Persian (12/1), 5Bailout Billy (6/1), 9Blue Moon Tide (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 268143
🎯 Longshots: 362748195
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4All American Rod (4/1)
Place:10Jackson Road (7/2)
Show:6Dot's Dollar (5/1)
Other contenders:8Great Escape (6/1), 3Beware Of Pride (10/1), 9Musical Maestro (8/1), 1Carbonite (15/1)
Rest of field:7Sophia's Prince (15/1), 11Big Brown Shoes (12/1), 2Backtrack (20/1), 5Jerry's Turn (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1046839
🎯 Longshots: 3101492761185
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Parx Racing — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 148 graded races at Parx Racing, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-19.

0%9%19%28%37%Our top pick: 29.7% from 148 racesOur top pick29.7%Morning-line favourite: 27.0% from 148 racesMorning-line favourite27.0%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick29.7%148
Morning-line favourite27.0%148
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:3Little Lance (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Show:1Skinny Joey (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:5Romantic Gamble (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -40%, 2Lord Winsalot (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%, 9Always Gambling (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%
Rest of field:10Capt. Candy (8/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -44%, 7Omaha Eight (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -58%, 6Mr. Mendelssohn (10/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -59%, 8Z Storm Is Coming (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -44%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cojelo Pa Ti — 23.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Cojelo Pa Ti23.2% ◀Little Lance — 14.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Little Lance14.3%Skinny Joey — 12.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Skinny Joey12.1%Romantic Gamble — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Romantic Gamble11.8%Lord Winsalot — 10.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Lord Winsalot10.7%Always Gambling — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Always Gambling9.8%Capt. Candy — 6.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Capt. Candy6.5%Omaha Eight — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Omaha Eight4.0%Mr. Mendelssohn — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Mr. Mendelssohn4.0%Z Storm Is Coming — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Z Storm Is Coming3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cojelo Pa Ti23.2%3/1
Little Lance14.3%6/1
Skinny Joey12.1%6/1
Romantic Gamble11.8%4.5/1
Lord Winsalot10.7%5/1
Always Gambling9.8%6/1
Capt. Candy6.5%8/1
Omaha Eight4.0%10/1
Mr. Mendelssohn4.0%10/1
Z Storm Is Coming3.6%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCojelo Pa Ti: model 23.2% vs market 18.1% (+5.1 points)Cojelo Pa Ti+5.1Little Lance: model 14.3% vs market 10.3% (+3.9 points)Little Lance+3.9Skinny Joey: model 12.1% vs market 10.3% (+1.8 points)Skinny Joey+1.8Romantic Gamble: model 11.8% vs market 13.2% (-1.3 points)Romantic Gamble-1.3Lord Winsalot: model 10.7% vs market 12.1% (-1.3 points)Lord Winsalot-1.3Always Gambling: model 9.8% vs market 10.3% (-0.5 points)Always Gambling-0.5Capt. Candy: model 6.5% vs market 8.0% (-1.5 points)Capt. Candy-1.5Omaha Eight: model 4.0% vs market 6.6% (-2.6 points)Omaha Eight-2.6Mr. Mendelssohn: model 4.0% vs market 6.6% (-2.6 points)Mr. Mendelssohn-2.6Z Storm Is Coming: model 3.6% vs market 4.5% (-0.9 points)Z Storm Is Coming-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cojelo Pa Ti23.2%18.1%+5.1
Little Lance14.3%10.3%+3.9
Skinny Joey12.1%10.3%+1.8
Romantic Gamble11.8%13.2%-1.3
Lord Winsalot10.7%12.1%-1.3
Always Gambling9.8%10.3%-0.5
Capt. Candy6.5%8.0%-1.5
Omaha Eight4.0%6.6%-2.6
Mr. Mendelssohn4.0%6.6%-2.6
Z Storm Is Coming3.6%4.5%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 453219
🎯 Longshots: 47108362159
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:6Weekend Honor (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38%
Place:1Luv Queen E (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:4Miskita (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:2California Smoke (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%, 10Miss Tifeye (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 8Alyvia Mavis (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 3Cash The Check (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:5Bective Abbey (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%, 12Sushi (20/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%, 7Uptown Art (15/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -64%, 9Keystormrising (20/1) 1% · fair 335-2 underlay -88%, 11Little Carley (20/1) 0% · fair 366-1 underlay -95%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Weekend Honor — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Weekend Honor23.6% ◀Luv Queen E — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Luv Queen E15.7%Miskita — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Miskita11.8%California Smoke — 11.1% win probability, morning line 5/1California Smoke11.1%Miss Tifeye — 10.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Miss Tifeye10.5%Alyvia Mavis — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Alyvia Mavis8.7%Cash The Check — 7.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Cash The Check7.6%Bective Abbey — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Bective Abbey5.1%Sushi — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Sushi2.5%Uptown Art — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Uptown Art2.4%Keystormrising — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Keystormrising0.6%Little Carley — 0.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Little Carley0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Weekend Honor23.6%2/1
Luv Queen E15.7%4.5/1
Miskita11.8%6/1
California Smoke11.1%5/1
Miss Tifeye10.5%6/1
Alyvia Mavis8.7%8/1
Cash The Check7.6%6/1
Bective Abbey5.1%10/1
Sushi2.5%20/1
Uptown Art2.4%15/1
Keystormrising0.6%20/1
Little Carley0.3%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 6124103
🎯 Longshots: 658127121043911
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:7Show's Last Gift (5/2) 56% · fair 4-5 overlay +217%
Place:3South Street Sally (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%
Show:4Victoria's Song (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -49%
Other contenders:1Edge Of Hope (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -51%, 5Diamond Dash (5/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -69%
Rest of field:6Tristar Empress (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 2Mochada (15/1) 1% · fair 333-2 underlay -91%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Show'S Last Gift — 55.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Show'S Last Gift55.9% ◀South Street Sally — 15.8% win probability, morning line 3/1South Street Sally15.8%Victoria'S Song — 10.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Victoria'S Song10.2%Edge Of Hope — 8.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Edge Of Hope8.9%Diamond Dash — 5.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Diamond Dash5.8%Tristar Empress — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Tristar Empress2.9%Mochada — 0.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Mochada0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Show'S Last Gift55.9%2.5/1
South Street Sally15.8%3/1
Victoria'S Song10.2%4.5/1
Edge Of Hope8.9%5/1
Diamond Dash5.8%5/1
Tristar Empress2.9%12/1
Mochada0.6%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShow'S Last Gift: model 55.9% vs market 24.0% (+31.9 points)Show'S Last Gift+31.9South Street Sally: model 15.8% vs market 21.0% (-5.2 points)South Street Sally-5.2Victoria'S Song: model 10.2% vs market 15.3% (-5.1 points)Victoria'S Song-5.1Edge Of Hope: model 8.9% vs market 14.0% (-5.1 points)Edge Of Hope-5.1Diamond Dash: model 5.8% vs market 14.0% (-8.2 points)Diamond Dash-8.2Tristar Empress: model 2.9% vs market 6.5% (-3.5 points)Tristar Empress-3.5Mochada: model 0.6% vs market 5.3% (-4.7 points)Mochada-4.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Show'S Last Gift55.9%24.0%+31.9
South Street Sally15.8%21.0%-5.2
Victoria'S Song10.2%15.3%-5.1
Edge Of Hope8.9%14.0%-5.1
Diamond Dash5.8%14.0%-8.2
Tristar Empress2.9%6.5%-3.5
Mochada0.6%5.3%-4.7
🌧️ Off-track: 734156
🎯 Longshots: 7153462
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000
Win:4Mo Attitude (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:2Spoonbill (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:5Chiquita's Way (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:3Synoptic (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 1Joyful Joyce (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%
Rest of field:6Panama Limited (8/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -71%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mo Attitude — 27.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Mo Attitude27.8% ◀Spoonbill — 24.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Spoonbill24.7%Chiquita'S Way — 21.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Chiquita'S Way21.6%Synoptic — 13.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Synoptic13.2%Joyful Joyce — 9.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Joyful Joyce9.2%Panama Limited — 3.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Panama Limited3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mo Attitude27.8%2/1
Spoonbill24.7%3/1
Chiquita'S Way21.6%2.5/1
Synoptic13.2%5/1
Joyful Joyce9.2%6/1
Panama Limited3.5%8/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMo Attitude: model 27.8% vs market 25.8% (+2.0 points)Mo Attitude+2.0Spoonbill: model 24.7% vs market 19.4% (+5.3 points)Spoonbill+5.3Chiquita'S Way: model 21.6% vs market 22.2% (-0.5 points)Chiquita'S Way-0.5Synoptic: model 13.2% vs market 12.9% (+0.3 points)Synoptic+0.3Joyful Joyce: model 9.2% vs market 11.1% (-1.9 points)Joyful Joyce-1.9Panama Limited: model 3.5% vs market 8.6% (-5.1 points)Panama Limited-5.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mo Attitude27.8%25.8%+2.0
Spoonbill24.7%19.4%+5.3
Chiquita'S Way21.6%22.2%-0.5
Synoptic13.2%12.9%+0.3
Joyful Joyce9.2%11.1%-1.9
Panama Limited3.5%8.6%-5.1
🌧️ Off-track: 425316
🎯 Longshots: 452631
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:1Cowboy Mike (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:3Recker Point (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:7Silent Mode (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:5Thorsness (5/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -60%, 2Best Bet (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:6Prince Colton (6/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%, 4Nixon Joy (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -56%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cowboy Mike — 29.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Cowboy Mike29.0% ◀Recker Point — 23.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Recker Point23.9%Silent Mode — 14.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Silent Mode14.1%Thorsness — 13.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Thorsness13.7%Best Bet — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Best Bet10.0%Prince Colton — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Prince Colton6.5%Nixon Joy — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Nixon Joy2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cowboy Mike29.0%2/1
Recker Point23.9%3.5/1
Silent Mode14.1%5/1
Thorsness13.7%2.5/1
Best Bet10.0%6/1
Prince Colton6.5%6/1
Nixon Joy2.8%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCowboy Mike: model 29.0% vs market 24.6% (+4.4 points)Cowboy Mike+4.4Recker Point: model 23.9% vs market 16.4% (+7.5 points)Recker Point+7.5Silent Mode: model 14.1% vs market 12.3% (+1.8 points)Silent Mode+1.8Thorsness: model 13.7% vs market 21.1% (-7.4 points)Thorsness-7.4Best Bet: model 10.0% vs market 10.5% (-0.5 points)Best Bet-0.5Prince Colton: model 6.5% vs market 10.5% (-4.0 points)Prince Colton-4.0Nixon Joy: model 2.8% vs market 4.6% (-1.8 points)Nixon Joy-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cowboy Mike29.0%24.6%+4.4
Recker Point23.9%16.4%+7.5
Silent Mode14.1%12.3%+1.8
Thorsness13.7%21.1%-7.4
Best Bet10.0%10.5%-0.5
Prince Colton6.5%10.5%-4.0
Nixon Joy2.8%4.6%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 135726
🎯 Longshots: 1352746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Tariba Dream (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:5Got Game (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:8I Can Run (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Racey Ruby (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 7Jess's Moment (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%, 6Magical Trick (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Rest of field:1Girvinized (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%, 3Lost Love (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -62%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tariba Dream — 26.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Tariba Dream26.3% ◀Got Game — 22.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Got Game22.3%I Can Run — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1I Can Run17.3%Racey Ruby — 15.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Racey Ruby15.4%Jess'S Moment — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Jess'S Moment6.0%Magical Trick — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Magical Trick5.2%Girvinized — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Girvinized3.9%Lost Love — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Lost Love3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tariba Dream26.3%2.5/1
Got Game22.3%4/1
I Can Run17.3%4.5/1
Racey Ruby15.4%5/1
Jess'S Moment6.0%8/1
Magical Trick5.2%10/1
Girvinized3.9%15/1
Lost Love3.7%10/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTariba Dream: model 26.3% vs market 24.0% (+2.3 points)Tariba Dream+2.3Got Game: model 22.3% vs market 16.8% (+5.5 points)Got Game+5.5I Can Run: model 17.3% vs market 15.3% (+2.0 points)I Can Run+2.0Racey Ruby: model 15.4% vs market 14.0% (+1.4 points)Racey Ruby+1.4Jess'S Moment: model 6.0% vs market 9.3% (-3.3 points)Jess'S Moment-3.3Magical Trick: model 5.2% vs market 7.6% (-2.5 points)Magical Trick-2.5Girvinized: model 3.9% vs market 5.3% (-1.3 points)Girvinized-1.3Lost Love: model 3.7% vs market 7.6% (-4.0 points)Lost Love-4.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tariba Dream26.3%24.0%+2.3
Got Game22.3%16.8%+5.5
I Can Run17.3%15.3%+2.0
Racey Ruby15.4%14.0%+1.4
Jess'S Moment6.0%9.3%-3.3
Magical Trick5.2%7.6%-2.5
Girvinized3.9%5.3%-1.3
Lost Love3.7%7.6%-4.0
🌧️ Off-track: 258476
🎯 Longshots: 25736814
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:6Vino Gray (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +42%
Place:7Point Barrow (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:1Quetzal Island (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%
Other contenders:2It's Authentic (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -29%, 8Captain Oats (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -54%, 5Corn King (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -63%
Rest of field:4Lecanto (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -42%, 3Backside (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%, 9Adios Buster (20/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -66%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Vino Gray — 26.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Vino Gray26.2% ◀Point Barrow — 26.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Point Barrow26.0%Quetzal Island — 16.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Quetzal Island16.8%It'S Authentic — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1It'S Authentic8.1%Captain Oats — 7.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Captain Oats7.1%Corn King — 6.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Corn King6.9%Lecanto — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Lecanto3.8%Backside — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Backside3.5%Adios Buster — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Adios Buster1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Vino Gray26.2%4/1
Point Barrow26.0%2.5/1
Quetzal Island16.8%3/1
It'S Authentic8.1%8/1
Captain Oats7.1%6/1
Corn King6.9%5/1
Lecanto3.8%15/1
Backside3.5%15/1
Adios Buster1.7%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVino Gray: model 26.2% vs market 15.0% (+11.2 points)Vino Gray+11.2Point Barrow: model 26.0% vs market 21.5% (+4.5 points)Point Barrow+4.5Quetzal Island: model 16.8% vs market 18.8% (-2.0 points)Quetzal Island-2.0It'S Authentic: model 8.1% vs market 8.4% (-0.2 points)It'S Authentic-0.2Captain Oats: model 7.1% vs market 10.7% (-3.7 points)Captain Oats-3.7Corn King: model 6.9% vs market 12.5% (-5.7 points)Corn King-5.7Lecanto: model 3.8% vs market 4.7% (-1.0 points)Lecanto-1.0Backside: model 3.5% vs market 4.7% (-1.2 points)Backside-1.2Adios Buster: model 1.7% vs market 3.6% (-1.9 points)Adios Buster-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Vino Gray26.2%15.0%+11.2
Point Barrow26.0%21.5%+4.5
Quetzal Island16.8%18.8%-2.0
It'S Authentic8.1%8.4%-0.2
Captain Oats7.1%10.7%-3.7
Corn King6.9%12.5%-5.7
Lecanto3.8%4.7%-1.0
Backside3.5%4.7%-1.2
Adios Buster1.7%3.6%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 761582
🎯 Longshots: 723165498
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000
Win:2Bellanova (9/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +64%
Place:6Kool Karoline (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:8Tiz Purple (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -34%
Other contenders:4Angie's Reward (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 1Eake (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -47%, 3Whatta World (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:7Persian (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%, 5Bailout Billy (6/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -72%, 9Blue Moon Tide (15/1) 2% · fair 62-1 underlay -76%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bellanova — 26.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Bellanova26.8% ◀Kool Karoline — 17.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Kool Karoline17.2%Tiz Purple — 15.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Tiz Purple15.9%Angie'S Reward — 10.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Angie'S Reward10.4%Eake — 9.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Eake9.6%Whatta World — 9.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Whatta World9.1%Persian — 5.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Persian5.1%Bailout Billy — 4.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Bailout Billy4.4%Blue Moon Tide — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Blue Moon Tide1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bellanova26.8%4.5/1
Kool Karoline17.2%4/1
Tiz Purple15.9%3.5/1
Angie'S Reward10.4%8/1
Eake9.6%5/1
Whatta World9.1%10/1
Persian5.1%12/1
Bailout Billy4.4%6/1
Blue Moon Tide1.6%15/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBellanova: model 26.8% vs market 14.5% (+12.3 points)Bellanova+12.3Kool Karoline: model 17.2% vs market 15.9% (+1.2 points)Kool Karoline+1.2Tiz Purple: model 15.9% vs market 17.7% (-1.8 points)Tiz Purple-1.8Angie'S Reward: model 10.4% vs market 8.9% (+1.6 points)Angie'S Reward+1.6Eake: model 9.6% vs market 13.3% (-3.7 points)Eake-3.7Whatta World: model 9.1% vs market 7.2% (+1.8 points)Whatta World+1.8Persian: model 5.1% vs market 6.1% (-1.0 points)Persian-1.0Bailout Billy: model 4.4% vs market 11.4% (-7.0 points)Bailout Billy-7.0Blue Moon Tide: model 1.6% vs market 5.0% (-3.4 points)Blue Moon Tide-3.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bellanova26.8%14.5%+12.3
Kool Karoline17.2%15.9%+1.2
Tiz Purple15.9%17.7%-1.8
Angie'S Reward10.4%8.9%+1.6
Eake9.6%13.3%-3.7
Whatta World9.1%7.2%+1.8
Persian5.1%6.1%-1.0
Bailout Billy4.4%11.4%-7.0
Blue Moon Tide1.6%5.0%-3.4
🌧️ Off-track: 286145
🎯 Longshots: 362748195
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:10Jackson Road (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:4All American Rod (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:6Dot's Dollar (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +33%
Other contenders:8Great Escape (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3Beware Of Pride (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%, 9Musical Maestro (8/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -58%, 1Carbonite (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%
Rest of field:11Big Brown Shoes (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 7Sophia's Prince (15/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -64%, 2Backtrack (20/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -57%, 5Jerry's Turn (20/1) 1% · fair 289-2 underlay -86%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Jackson Road — 23.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Jackson Road23.1% ◀All American Rod — 22.0% win probability, morning line 4/1All American Rod22.0%Dot'S Dollar — 21.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Dot'S Dollar21.0%Great Escape — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Great Escape11.8%Beware Of Pride — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Beware Of Pride5.3%Musical Maestro — 4.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Musical Maestro4.9%Carbonite — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Carbonite3.9%Big Brown Shoes — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Big Brown Shoes2.9%Sophia'S Prince — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Sophia'S Prince2.3%Backtrack — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Backtrack2.1%Jerry'S Turn — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Jerry'S Turn0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Jackson Road23.1%3.5/1
All American Rod22.0%4/1
Dot'S Dollar21.0%5/1
Great Escape11.8%6/1
Beware Of Pride5.3%10/1
Musical Maestro4.9%8/1
Carbonite3.9%15/1
Big Brown Shoes2.9%12/1
Sophia'S Prince2.3%15/1
Backtrack2.1%20/1
Jerry'S Turn0.7%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJackson Road: model 23.1% vs market 18.1% (+5.0 points)Jackson Road+5.0All American Rod: model 22.0% vs market 16.2% (+5.7 points)All American Rod+5.7Dot'S Dollar: model 21.0% vs market 13.5% (+7.5 points)Dot'S Dollar+7.5Great Escape: model 11.8% vs market 11.6% (+0.2 points)Great Escape+0.2Beware Of Pride: model 5.3% vs market 7.4% (-2.1 points)Beware Of Pride-2.1Musical Maestro: model 4.9% vs market 9.0% (-4.1 points)Musical Maestro-4.1Carbonite: model 3.9% vs market 5.1% (-1.2 points)Carbonite-1.2Big Brown Shoes: model 2.9% vs market 6.2% (-3.3 points)Big Brown Shoes-3.3Sophia'S Prince: model 2.3% vs market 5.1% (-2.8 points)Sophia'S Prince-2.8Backtrack: model 2.1% vs market 3.9% (-1.8 points)Backtrack-1.8Jerry'S Turn: model 0.7% vs market 3.9% (-3.2 points)Jerry'S Turn-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Jackson Road23.1%18.1%+5.0
All American Rod22.0%16.2%+5.7
Dot'S Dollar21.0%13.5%+7.5
Great Escape11.8%11.6%+0.2
Beware Of Pride5.3%7.4%-2.1
Musical Maestro4.9%9.0%-4.1
Carbonite3.9%5.1%-1.2
Big Brown Shoes2.9%6.2%-3.3
Sophia'S Prince2.3%5.1%-2.8
Backtrack2.1%3.9%-1.8
Jerry'S Turn0.7%3.9%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 1046893
🎯 Longshots: 3101492761185
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (3/1)
Place:3Little Lance (6/1)
Show:1Skinny Joey (6/1)
Other contenders:2Lord Winsalot (5/1), 9Always Gambling (6/1), 10Capt. Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Romantic Gamble (9/2), 7Omaha Eight (10/1), 6Mr. Mendelssohn (10/1), 8Z Storm Is Coming (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431259
🎯 Longshots: 47108362159
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1Luv Queen E (9/2)
Place:2California Smoke (5/1)
Show:6Weekend Honor (2/1)
Other contenders:10Miss Tifeye (6/1), 4Miskita (6/1), 8Alyvia Mavis (8/1), 3Cash The Check (6/1)
Rest of field:5Bective Abbey (10/1), 7Uptown Art (15/1), 12Sushi (20/1), 11Little Carley (20/1), 9Keystormrising (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6121043
🎯 Longshots: 658127121043911
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:7Show's Last Gift (5/2)
Place:3South Street Sally (3/1)
Show:4Victoria's Song (9/2)
Other contenders:1Edge Of Hope (5/1), 5Diamond Dash (5/1)
Rest of field:6Tristar Empress (12/1), 2Mochada (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734156
🎯 Longshots: 7153462
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000
Win:5Chiquita's Way (5/2)
Place:4Mo Attitude (2/1)
Show:2Spoonbill (3/1)
Other contenders:3Synoptic (5/1), 1Joyful Joyce (6/1)
Rest of field:6Panama Limited (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452316
🎯 Longshots: 452631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:1Cowboy Mike (2/1)
Place:3Recker Point (7/2)
Show:2Best Bet (6/1)
Other contenders:6Prince Colton (6/1), 5Thorsness (5/2)
Rest of field:7Silent Mode (5/1), 4Nixon Joy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153276
🎯 Longshots: 1352746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Got Game (4/1)
Place:2Tariba Dream (5/2)
Show:8I Can Run (9/2)
Other contenders:4Racey Ruby (5/1), 7Jess's Moment (8/1), 6Magical Trick (10/1)
Rest of field:1Girvinized (15/1), 3Lost Love (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 258476
🎯 Longshots: 25736814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7Point Barrow (5/2)
Place:6Vino Gray (4/1)
Show:1Quetzal Island (3/1)
Other contenders:8Captain Oats (6/1), 2It's Authentic (8/1), 4Lecanto (15/1)
Rest of field:5Corn King (5/1), 3Backside (15/1), 9Adios Buster (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716852
🎯 Longshots: 723165498
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000
Win:2Bellanova (9/2)
Place:6Kool Karoline (4/1)
Show:3Whatta World (10/1)
Other contenders:7Persian (12/1), 4Angie's Reward (8/1), 8Tiz Purple (7/2)
Rest of field:1Eake (5/1), 5Bailout Billy (6/1), 9Blue Moon Tide (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 628143
🎯 Longshots: 362748195
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:8Great Escape (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:10Jackson Road (7/2)
Show:4All American Rod (4/1)
Other contenders:6Dot's Dollar (5/1), 9Musical Maestro (8/1), 1Carbonite (15/1), 3Beware Of Pride (10/1)
Rest of field:11Big Brown Shoes (12/1), 7Sophia's Prince (15/1), 2Backtrack (20/1), 5Jerry's Turn (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1046893
🎯 Longshots: 3101492761185
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #10, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #4, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #2, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #7 over #6 ($1 straight; box #7-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #6, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #10 over #4 ($1 straight; box #10-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #8, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (3/1)
Place:3Little Lance (6/1)
Show:1Skinny Joey (6/1)
Other contenders:7Omaha Eight (10/1), 2Lord Winsalot (5/1), 10Capt. Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:5Romantic Gamble (9/2), 9Always Gambling (6/1), 6Mr. Mendelssohn (10/1), 8Z Storm Is Coming (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431259
🎯 Longshots: 47108362159
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:2California Smoke (5/1)
Place:6Weekend Honor (2/1)
Show:1Luv Queen E (9/2)
Other contenders:5Bective Abbey (10/1), 8Alyvia Mavis (8/1), 4Miskita (6/1), 3Cash The Check (6/1)
Rest of field:10Miss Tifeye (6/1), 7Uptown Art (15/1), 12Sushi (20/1), 9Keystormrising (20/1), 11Little Carley (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6214310
🎯 Longshots: 658127121043911
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:7Show's Last Gift (5/2)
Place:4Victoria's Song (9/2)
Show:1Edge Of Hope (5/1)
Other contenders:3South Street Sally (3/1), 5Diamond Dash (5/1)
Rest of field:6Tristar Empress (12/1), 2Mochada (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734156
🎯 Longshots: 7153462
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000
Win:4Mo Attitude (2/1)
Place:5Chiquita's Way (5/2)
Show:2Spoonbill (3/1)
Other contenders:3Synoptic (5/1), 1Joyful Joyce (6/1)
Rest of field:6Panama Limited (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452316
🎯 Longshots: 452631
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:1Cowboy Mike (2/1)
Place:3Recker Point (7/2)
Show:2Best Bet (6/1)
Other contenders:6Prince Colton (6/1), 5Thorsness (5/2)
Rest of field:7Silent Mode (5/1), 4Nixon Joy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153267
🎯 Longshots: 1352746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Tariba Dream (5/2)
Place:5Got Game (4/1)
Show:4Racey Ruby (5/1)
Other contenders:8I Can Run (9/2), 7Jess's Moment (8/1), 6Magical Trick (10/1)
Rest of field:3Lost Love (10/1), 1Girvinized (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254876
🎯 Longshots: 25736814
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7Point Barrow (5/2)
Place:6Vino Gray (4/1)
Show:1Quetzal Island (3/1)
Other contenders:8Captain Oats (6/1), 2It's Authentic (8/1), 5Corn King (5/1)
Rest of field:3Backside (15/1), 4Lecanto (15/1), 9Adios Buster (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716582
🎯 Longshots: 723165498
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000
Win:7Persian (12/1)
Place:2Bellanova (9/2)
Show:6Kool Karoline (4/1)
Other contenders:8Tiz Purple (7/2), 1Eake (5/1), 4Angie's Reward (8/1)
Rest of field:3Whatta World (10/1), 5Bailout Billy (6/1), 9Blue Moon Tide (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 826174
🎯 Longshots: 362748195
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:8Great Escape (6/1)
Place:4All American Rod (4/1)
Show:10Jackson Road (7/2)
Other contenders:6Dot's Dollar (5/1), 3Beware Of Pride (10/1), 1Carbonite (15/1), 9Musical Maestro (8/1)
Rest of field:2Backtrack (20/1), 7Sophia's Prince (15/1), 11Big Brown Shoes (12/1), 5Jerry's Turn (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1048693
🎯 Longshots: 3101492761185
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #10, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (3/1)
Place:3Little Lance (6/1)
Show:1Skinny Joey (6/1)
Other contenders:5Romantic Gamble (9/2), 2Lord Winsalot (5/1), 9Always Gambling (6/1)
Rest of field:10Capt. Candy (8/1), 7Omaha Eight (10/1), 6Mr. Mendelssohn (10/1), 8Z Storm Is Coming (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453219
🎯 Longshots: 47108362159
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:6Weekend Honor (2/1)
Place:1Luv Queen E (9/2)
Show:2California Smoke (5/1)
Other contenders:4Miskita (6/1), 3Cash The Check (6/1), 8Alyvia Mavis (8/1), 5Bective Abbey (10/1)
Rest of field:10Miss Tifeye (6/1), 7Uptown Art (15/1), 12Sushi (20/1), 9Keystormrising (20/1), 11Little Carley (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6124310
🎯 Longshots: 658127121043911
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:7Show's Last Gift (5/2)
Place:3South Street Sally (3/1)
Show:4Victoria's Song (9/2)
Other contenders:1Edge Of Hope (5/1), 5Diamond Dash (5/1)
Rest of field:6Tristar Empress (12/1), 2Mochada (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 734156
🎯 Longshots: 7153462
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $26,000
Win:5Chiquita's Way (5/2)
Place:4Mo Attitude (2/1)
Show:2Spoonbill (3/1)
Other contenders:3Synoptic (5/1), 1Joyful Joyce (6/1)
Rest of field:6Panama Limited (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452316
🎯 Longshots: 452631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:1Cowboy Mike (2/1)
Place:3Recker Point (7/2)
Show:2Best Bet (6/1)
Other contenders:6Prince Colton (6/1), 5Thorsness (5/2)
Rest of field:7Silent Mode (5/1), 4Nixon Joy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135276
🎯 Longshots: 1352746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Got Game (4/1)
Place:2Tariba Dream (5/2)
Show:4Racey Ruby (5/1)
Other contenders:8I Can Run (9/2), 7Jess's Moment (8/1), 1Girvinized (15/1)
Rest of field:3Lost Love (10/1), 6Magical Trick (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254873
🎯 Longshots: 25736814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7Point Barrow (5/2)
Place:6Vino Gray (4/1)
Show:1Quetzal Island (3/1)
Other contenders:8Captain Oats (6/1), 5Corn King (5/1), 3Backside (15/1)
Rest of field:2It's Authentic (8/1), 4Lecanto (15/1), 9Adios Buster (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716852
🎯 Longshots: 723165498
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000
Win:2Bellanova (9/2)
Place:6Kool Karoline (4/1)
Show:8Tiz Purple (7/2)
Other contenders:1Eake (5/1), 4Angie's Reward (8/1), 3Whatta World (10/1)
Rest of field:7Persian (12/1), 5Bailout Billy (6/1), 9Blue Moon Tide (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 286143
🎯 Longshots: 362748195
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:10Jackson Road (7/2)
Place:8Great Escape (6/1)
Show:4All American Rod (4/1)
Other contenders:6Dot's Dollar (5/1), 1Carbonite (15/1), 3Beware Of Pride (10/1), 9Musical Maestro (8/1)
Rest of field:11Big Brown Shoes (12/1), 7Sophia's Prince (15/1), 2Backtrack (20/1), 5Jerry's Turn (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1048693
🎯 Longshots: 3101492761185
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #8, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#1,#4 (51%) / R3: #7,#3 (72%) / R4: #4,#2,#5 (74%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #7,#3 (72%) / R4: #4,#2,#5 (74%) / R5: #1,#3,#7 (67%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #4,#2,#5 (74%) / R5: #1,#3,#7 (67%) / R6: #2,#5,#8 (66%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#3,#7 (67%) / R6: #2,#5,#8 (66%) / R7: #6,#7,#1 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #6,#1,#4 (51%) / R3: #7,#3 (72%) / R4: #4,#2,#5 (74%) / R5: #1,#3,#7 (67%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #7,#3 (72%) / R4: #4,#2,#5 (74%) / R5: #1,#3,#7 (67%) / R6: #2,#5,#8 (66%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADIOS BUSTERALL AMERICAN RODALWAYS GAMBLINGALYVIA MAVISANGIE'S REWARD
BACKTRACKBAILOUT BILLYBECTIVE ABBEYBELLANOVABEST BET
BIG BROWN SHOESBLUE MOON TIDECALIFORNIA SMOKECAPT. CANDYCAPTAIN OATS
CASH THE CHECKCHIQUITA'S WAYCOJELO PA TICORN KINGCOWBOY MIKE
DOT'S DOLLAREAKEEDGE OF HOPEGIRVINIZEDGOT GAME
I CAN RUNIT'S AUTHENTICJACKSON ROADJERRY'S TURNJESS'S MOMENT
KEYSTORMRISINGKOOL KAROLINELECANTOLITTLE CARLEYLITTLE LANCE
LOST LOVELUV QUEEN EMAGICAL TRICKMISKITAMISS TIFEYE
MOCHADAMR. MENDELSSOHNMUSICAL MAESTRONIXON JOYOMAHA EIGHT
PERSIANPOINT BARROWPRINCE COLTONQUETZAL ISLANDRACEY RUBY
ROMANTIC GAMBLESHOW'S LAST GIFTSILENT MODESKINNY JOEYSOPHIA'S PRINCE
SPOONBILLSUSHISYNOPTICTARIBA DREAMTHORSNESS
TRISTAR EMPRESSUPTOWN ARTVICTORIA'S SONGVINO GRAYWEEKEND HONOR
Z STORM IS COMING

 


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