Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Remington Park, October 22, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 245 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-08-21 to 2026-10-17.

0%11%22%34%45%Our top pick: 35.9% from 245 racesOur top pick35.9%Morning-line favourite: 33.1% from 245 racesMorning-line favourite33.1%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.9%245
Morning-line favourite33.1%245
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Trust Daddy (5/2)
Place:3Order Of Merit (3/1)
Show:6Good Lovin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Seeking Sawyer (5/1), 4Texas Holdem (8/1)
Rest of field:5Golden Rebal (8/1), 7Prince Rama (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136274
🎯 Longshots: 3145627
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Banchero (2/1)
Place:7Twoshai S G A (3/1)
Show:2Sagebrush Runner (4/1)
Other contenders:4Buy Me Another (6/1), 1Da American Heart (8/1)
Rest of field:5By The Glenside (8/1), 6Da Mr. Dalleo Up (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372415
🎯 Longshots: 3724156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Skyforge (8/5)
Place:1By The Bottle (3/1)
Show:4Aransas Pass (5/1)
Other contenders:3Free Drop Nana (7/2), 2Pretty Dang Fast (6/1)
Rest of field:6Party Trick (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513426
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Metric Man (9/5)
Place:5Mo Town Gold (9/2)
Show:4Photoshopped (5/2)
Other contenders:2Code Mandalore (4/1), 1Red Hot Shot (5/1)
Rest of field:3Gospel Don (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645213
🎯 Longshots: 645231
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:6Infuriata (3/1)
Show:7Aloha Tracy (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mi Bella Reina (8/1), 2Mogold Forme (10/1), 10Chocolate Praline (6/1)
Rest of field:8Top Shelf Shake (15/1), 3Az Silencer (15/1), 9Little Mary (20/1), 4Saver's Joy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5671102
🎯 Longshots: 56781210349
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Crystal Claire (5/2)
Place:3Super Enticing (7/2)
Show:8Shelley's Money (5/1)
Other contenders:4Avalon Girl (6/1), 6Princess Kaiulani (9/2), 5Norma Jean Bling (8/1)
Rest of field:2Maya D (10/1), 1Fayette Blue (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738645
🎯 Longshots: 73546812
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Gift Of Grace (5/2)
Place:5West Code Lady (6/1)
Show:6Sweep The West (4/1)
Other contenders:7Bailey Sioux (7/2), 4Code Aurie (15/1), 8Red Flat Pumps (6/1)
Rest of field:1West Texas Ruby (10/1), 2Caman Up (12/1), 3Chicks Night Out (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 956784
🎯 Longshots: 459713628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Brilliant Plan (5/2)
Place:6It's All Right (2/1)
Show:2Berry Mischievous (9/2)
Other contenders:3Papa Ken (5/1), 5Sinner's Sin (4/1)
Rest of field:1Aaron (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462531
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Little Trouble (3/1)
Place:8Marcus Gift (6/1)
Show:1Brilliant Spin (7/2)
Other contenders:10Don'task Don'ttell (4/1), 9Mongolian Memory (8/1), 2Illustrator (8/1)
Rest of field:3Manor Born (15/1), 4Blessed Vision (15/1), 5Bourbon Life (15/1), 7Fifty Cent Dollars (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6811092
🎯 Longshots: 92863107451
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #1, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 170 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-17.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 35.3% from 170 racesOur top pick35.3%Morning-line favourite: 32.9% from 170 racesMorning-line favourite32.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.3%170
Morning-line favourite32.9%170
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000
Win:3Order Of Merit (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:6Good Lovin (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:1Trust Daddy (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:4Texas Holdem (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 2Seeking Sawyer (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%
Rest of field:5Golden Rebal (8/1) 8% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%, 7Prince Rama (6/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -57%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Order Of Merit — 23.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Order Of Merit23.6% ◀Good Lovin — 22.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Good Lovin22.3%Trust Daddy — 20.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Trust Daddy20.0%Texas Holdem — 10.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Texas Holdem10.0%Seeking Sawyer — 10.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Seeking Sawyer10.0%Golden Rebal — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Golden Rebal7.5%Prince Rama — 6.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Prince Rama6.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Order Of Merit23.6%3/1
Good Lovin22.3%4/1
Trust Daddy20.0%2.5/1
Texas Holdem10.0%8/1
Seeking Sawyer10.0%5/1
Golden Rebal7.5%8/1
Prince Rama6.7%6/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOrder Of Merit: model 23.6% vs market 19.7% (+3.8 points)Order Of Merit+3.8Good Lovin: model 22.3% vs market 15.8% (+6.5 points)Good Lovin+6.5Trust Daddy: model 20.0% vs market 22.5% (-2.6 points)Trust Daddy-2.6Texas Holdem: model 10.0% vs market 8.8% (+1.2 points)Texas Holdem+1.2Seeking Sawyer: model 10.0% vs market 13.1% (-3.2 points)Seeking Sawyer-3.2Golden Rebal: model 7.5% vs market 8.8% (-1.3 points)Golden Rebal-1.3Prince Rama: model 6.7% vs market 11.3% (-4.6 points)Prince Rama-4.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Order Of Merit23.6%19.7%+3.8
Good Lovin22.3%15.8%+6.5
Trust Daddy20.0%22.5%-2.6
Texas Holdem10.0%8.8%+1.2
Seeking Sawyer10.0%13.1%-3.2
Golden Rebal7.5%8.8%-1.3
Prince Rama6.7%11.3%-4.6
🌧️ Off-track: 316247
🎯 Longshots: 3145627
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:7Twoshai S G A (3/1) 33% · fair 2-1 overlay +48%
Place:3Banchero (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -29%
Show:2Sagebrush Runner (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Buy Me Another (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -38%, 5By The Glenside (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:1Da American Heart (8/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -67%, 6Da Mr. Dalleo Up (8/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -83%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Twoshai S G A — 33.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Twoshai S G A33.0% ◀Banchero — 26.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Banchero26.1%Sagebrush Runner — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Sagebrush Runner16.4%Buy Me Another — 9.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Buy Me Another9.4%By The Glenside — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1By The Glenside9.1%Da American Heart — 3.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Da American Heart3.9%Da Mr. Dalleo Up — 2.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Da Mr. Dalleo Up2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Twoshai S G A33.0%3/1
Banchero26.1%2/1
Sagebrush Runner16.4%4/1
Buy Me Another9.4%6/1
By The Glenside9.1%8/1
Da American Heart3.9%8/1
Da Mr. Dalleo Up2.1%8/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTwoshai S G A: model 33.0% vs market 19.8% (+13.1 points)Twoshai S G A+13.1Banchero: model 26.1% vs market 26.5% (-0.3 points)Banchero-0.3Sagebrush Runner: model 16.4% vs market 15.9% (+0.5 points)Sagebrush Runner+0.5Buy Me Another: model 9.4% vs market 11.3% (-2.0 points)Buy Me Another-2.0By The Glenside: model 9.1% vs market 8.8% (+0.3 points)By The Glenside+0.3Da American Heart: model 3.9% vs market 8.8% (-4.9 points)Da American Heart-4.9Da Mr. Dalleo Up: model 2.1% vs market 8.8% (-6.7 points)Da Mr. Dalleo Up-6.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Twoshai S G A33.0%19.8%+13.1
Banchero26.1%26.5%-0.3
Sagebrush Runner16.4%15.9%+0.5
Buy Me Another9.4%11.3%-2.0
By The Glenside9.1%8.8%+0.3
Da American Heart3.9%8.8%-4.9
Da Mr. Dalleo Up2.1%8.8%-6.7
🌧️ Off-track: 732451
🎯 Longshots: 3724156
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Skyforge (8/5) 45% · fair 1-1 overlay +30%
Place:1By The Bottle (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:3Free Drop Nana (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:4Aransas Pass (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30%, 2Pretty Dang Fast (6/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -66%
Rest of field:6Party Trick (8/1) 2% · fair 117-2 underlay -86%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Skyforge — 44.9% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Skyforge44.9% ◀By The Bottle — 23.4% win probability, morning line 3/1By The Bottle23.4%Free Drop Nana — 12.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Free Drop Nana12.6%Aransas Pass — 12.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Aransas Pass12.2%Pretty Dang Fast — 5.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Pretty Dang Fast5.3%Party Trick — 1.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Party Trick1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Skyforge44.9%1.6/1
By The Bottle23.4%3/1
Free Drop Nana12.6%3.5/1
Aransas Pass12.2%5/1
Pretty Dang Fast5.3%6/1
Party Trick1.7%8/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSkyforge: model 44.9% vs market 30.1% (+14.7 points)Skyforge+14.7By The Bottle: model 23.4% vs market 19.6% (+3.8 points)By The Bottle+3.8Free Drop Nana: model 12.6% vs market 17.4% (-4.8 points)Free Drop Nana-4.8Aransas Pass: model 12.2% vs market 13.0% (-0.8 points)Aransas Pass-0.8Pretty Dang Fast: model 5.3% vs market 11.2% (-5.9 points)Pretty Dang Fast-5.9Party Trick: model 1.7% vs market 8.7% (-7.0 points)Party Trick-7.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Skyforge44.9%30.1%+14.7
By The Bottle23.4%19.6%+3.8
Free Drop Nana12.6%17.4%-4.8
Aransas Pass12.2%13.0%-0.8
Pretty Dang Fast5.3%11.2%-5.9
Party Trick1.7%8.7%-7.0
🌧️ Off-track: 513426
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Metric Man (9/5) 45% · fair 1-1 overlay +47%
Place:5Mo Town Gold (9/2) 23% · fair 7-2 overlay +32%
Show:4Photoshopped (5/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -62%
Other contenders:2Code Mandalore (4/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -52%, 1Red Hot Shot (5/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -77%
Rest of field:3Gospel Don (10/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -60%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Metric Man — 45.0% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Metric Man45.0% ◀Mo Town Gold — 22.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Mo Town Gold22.7%Photoshopped — 13.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Photoshopped13.2%Code Mandalore — 10.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Code Mandalore10.8%Red Hot Shot — 4.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Red Hot Shot4.4%Gospel Don — 3.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Gospel Don3.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Metric Man45.0%1.8/1
Mo Town Gold22.7%4.5/1
Photoshopped13.2%2.5/1
Code Mandalore10.8%4/1
Red Hot Shot4.4%5/1
Gospel Don3.8%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMetric Man: model 45.0% vs market 27.9% (+17.2 points)Metric Man+17.2Mo Town Gold: model 22.7% vs market 14.2% (+8.5 points)Mo Town Gold+8.5Photoshopped: model 13.2% vs market 22.3% (-9.1 points)Photoshopped-9.1Code Mandalore: model 10.8% vs market 15.6% (-4.8 points)Code Mandalore-4.8Red Hot Shot: model 4.4% vs market 13.0% (-8.6 points)Red Hot Shot-8.6Gospel Don: model 3.8% vs market 7.1% (-3.3 points)Gospel Don-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Metric Man45.0%27.9%+17.2
Mo Town Gold22.7%14.2%+8.5
Photoshopped13.2%22.3%-9.1
Code Mandalore10.8%15.6%-4.8
Red Hot Shot4.4%13.0%-8.6
Gospel Don3.8%7.1%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 645213
🎯 Longshots: 645231
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Lead By Example (5/2) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:6Infuriata (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:7Aloha Tracy (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:1Mi Bella Reina (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 2Mogold Forme (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 10Chocolate Praline (6/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -68%
Rest of field:8Top Shelf Shake (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -53%, 3Az Silencer (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%, 9Little Mary (20/1) 1% · fair 68-1 underlay -71%, 4Saver's Joy (20/1) 1% · fair 84-1 underlay -76%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lead By Example — 31.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Lead By Example31.6% ◀Infuriata — 21.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Infuriata21.0%Aloha Tracy — 18.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Aloha Tracy18.6%Mi Bella Reina — 9.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Mi Bella Reina9.5%Mogold Forme — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Mogold Forme6.1%Chocolate Praline — 5.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Chocolate Praline5.0%Top Shelf Shake — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Top Shelf Shake3.1%Az Silencer — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Az Silencer2.4%Little Mary — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Little Mary1.4%Saver'S Joy — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Saver'S Joy1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lead By Example31.6%2.5/1
Infuriata21.0%3/1
Aloha Tracy18.6%4.5/1
Mi Bella Reina9.5%8/1
Mogold Forme6.1%10/1
Chocolate Praline5.0%6/1
Top Shelf Shake3.1%15/1
Az Silencer2.4%15/1
Little Mary1.4%20/1
Saver'S Joy1.2%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLead By Example: model 31.6% vs market 22.3% (+9.3 points)Lead By Example+9.3Infuriata: model 21.0% vs market 19.5% (+1.5 points)Infuriata+1.5Aloha Tracy: model 18.6% vs market 14.2% (+4.5 points)Aloha Tracy+4.5Mi Bella Reina: model 9.5% vs market 8.7% (+0.8 points)Mi Bella Reina+0.8Mogold Forme: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)Mogold Forme-1.0Chocolate Praline: model 5.0% vs market 11.1% (-6.1 points)Chocolate Praline-6.1Top Shelf Shake: model 3.1% vs market 4.9% (-1.8 points)Top Shelf Shake-1.8Az Silencer: model 2.4% vs market 4.9% (-2.4 points)Az Silencer-2.4Little Mary: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Little Mary-2.3Saver'S Joy: model 1.2% vs market 3.7% (-2.5 points)Saver'S Joy-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lead By Example31.6%22.3%+9.3
Infuriata21.0%19.5%+1.5
Aloha Tracy18.6%14.2%+4.5
Mi Bella Reina9.5%8.7%+0.8
Mogold Forme6.1%7.1%-1.0
Chocolate Praline5.0%11.1%-6.1
Top Shelf Shake3.1%4.9%-1.8
Az Silencer2.4%4.9%-2.4
Little Mary1.4%3.7%-2.3
Saver'S Joy1.2%3.7%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 5671012
🎯 Longshots: 56781210349
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:7Crystal Claire (5/2) 36% · fair 2-1 overlay +42%
Place:3Super Enticing (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:6Princess Kaiulani (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:4Avalon Girl (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 8Shelley's Money (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -39%, 5Norma Jean Bling (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -52%
Rest of field:1Fayette Blue (12/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -65%, 2Maya D (10/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -73%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Crystal Claire — 36.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Crystal Claire36.3% ◀Super Enticing — 18.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Super Enticing18.2%Princess Kaiulani — 11.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Princess Kaiulani11.9%Avalon Girl — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Avalon Girl11.8%Shelley'S Money — 10.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Shelley'S Money10.8%Norma Jean Bling — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Norma Jean Bling5.6%Fayette Blue — 2.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Fayette Blue2.8%Maya D — 2.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Maya D2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Crystal Claire36.3%2.5/1
Super Enticing18.2%3.5/1
Princess Kaiulani11.9%4.5/1
Avalon Girl11.8%6/1
Shelley'S Money10.8%5/1
Norma Jean Bling5.6%8/1
Fayette Blue2.8%12/1
Maya D2.6%10/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCrystal Claire: model 36.3% vs market 22.4% (+13.9 points)Crystal Claire+13.9Super Enticing: model 18.2% vs market 17.4% (+0.8 points)Super Enticing+0.8Princess Kaiulani: model 11.9% vs market 14.2% (-2.4 points)Princess Kaiulani-2.4Avalon Girl: model 11.8% vs market 11.2% (+0.6 points)Avalon Girl+0.6Shelley'S Money: model 10.8% vs market 13.0% (-2.2 points)Shelley'S Money-2.2Norma Jean Bling: model 5.6% vs market 8.7% (-3.1 points)Norma Jean Bling-3.1Fayette Blue: model 2.8% vs market 6.0% (-3.2 points)Fayette Blue-3.2Maya D: model 2.6% vs market 7.1% (-4.5 points)Maya D-4.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Crystal Claire36.3%22.4%+13.9
Super Enticing18.2%17.4%+0.8
Princess Kaiulani11.9%14.2%-2.4
Avalon Girl11.8%11.2%+0.6
Shelley'S Money10.8%13.0%-2.2
Norma Jean Bling5.6%8.7%-3.1
Fayette Blue2.8%6.0%-3.2
Maya D2.6%7.1%-4.5
🌧️ Off-track: 736845
🎯 Longshots: 73546812
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Sweep The West (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:9Gift Of Grace (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -30%
Show:7Bailey Sioux (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:5West Code Lady (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 4Code Aurie (15/1) 9% · fair 10-1 overlay +47%, 1West Texas Ruby (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:3Chicks Night Out (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 8Red Flat Pumps (6/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -74%, 2Caman Up (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sweep The West — 23.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Sweep The West23.1% ◀Gift Of Grace — 21.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gift Of Grace21.9%Bailey Sioux — 14.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bailey Sioux14.8%West Code Lady — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1West Code Lady11.9%Code Aurie — 8.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Code Aurie8.9%West Texas Ruby — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1West Texas Ruby6.1%Chicks Night Out — 5.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Chicks Night Out5.3%Red Flat Pumps — 4.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Red Flat Pumps4.1%Caman Up — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Caman Up3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sweep The West23.1%4/1
Gift Of Grace21.9%2.5/1
Bailey Sioux14.8%3.5/1
West Code Lady11.9%6/1
Code Aurie8.9%15/1
West Texas Ruby6.1%10/1
Chicks Night Out5.3%15/1
Red Flat Pumps4.1%6/1
Caman Up3.7%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSweep The West: model 23.1% vs market 15.5% (+7.6 points)Sweep The West+7.6Gift Of Grace: model 21.9% vs market 22.2% (-0.3 points)Gift Of Grace-0.3Bailey Sioux: model 14.8% vs market 17.3% (-2.4 points)Bailey Sioux-2.4West Code Lady: model 11.9% vs market 11.1% (+0.8 points)West Code Lady+0.8Code Aurie: model 8.9% vs market 4.9% (+4.1 points)Code Aurie+4.1West Texas Ruby: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)West Texas Ruby-1.0Chicks Night Out: model 5.3% vs market 4.9% (+0.5 points)Chicks Night Out+0.5Red Flat Pumps: model 4.1% vs market 11.1% (-7.0 points)Red Flat Pumps-7.0Caman Up: model 3.7% vs market 6.0% (-2.3 points)Caman Up-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sweep The West23.1%15.5%+7.6
Gift Of Grace21.9%22.2%-0.3
Bailey Sioux14.8%17.3%-2.4
West Code Lady11.9%11.1%+0.8
Code Aurie8.9%4.9%+4.1
West Texas Ruby6.1%7.1%-1.0
Chicks Night Out5.3%4.9%+0.5
Red Flat Pumps4.1%11.1%-7.0
Caman Up3.7%6.0%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 967581
🎯 Longshots: 459713628
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Brilliant Plan (5/2) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:6It's All Right (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -57%
Show:5Sinner's Sin (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:3Papa Ken (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 2Berry Mischievous (9/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -29%
Rest of field:1Aaron (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Brilliant Plan — 31.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Brilliant Plan31.8% ◀It'S All Right — 17.7% win probability, morning line 2/1It'S All Right17.7%Sinner'S Sin — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Sinner'S Sin15.1%Papa Ken — 14.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Papa Ken14.9%Berry Mischievous — 13.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Berry Mischievous13.7%Aaron — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Aaron6.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Brilliant Plan31.8%2.5/1
It'S All Right17.7%2/1
Sinner'S Sin15.1%4/1
Papa Ken14.9%5/1
Berry Mischievous13.7%4.5/1
Aaron6.8%8/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBrilliant Plan: model 31.8% vs market 22.3% (+9.4 points)Brilliant Plan+9.4It'S All Right: model 17.7% vs market 26.1% (-8.3 points)It'S All Right-8.3Sinner'S Sin: model 15.1% vs market 15.6% (-0.5 points)Sinner'S Sin-0.5Papa Ken: model 14.9% vs market 13.0% (+1.8 points)Papa Ken+1.8Berry Mischievous: model 13.7% vs market 14.2% (-0.5 points)Berry Mischievous-0.5Aaron: model 6.8% vs market 8.7% (-1.9 points)Aaron-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Brilliant Plan31.8%22.3%+9.4
It'S All Right17.7%26.1%-8.3
Sinner'S Sin15.1%15.6%-0.5
Papa Ken14.9%13.0%+1.8
Berry Mischievous13.7%14.2%-0.5
Aaron6.8%8.7%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 465231
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:6Little Trouble (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -37%
Place:8Marcus Gift (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:2Illustrator (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +43%
Other contenders:9Mongolian Memory (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +41%, 10Don'task Don'ttell (4/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -52%, 1Brilliant Spin (7/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -61%
Rest of field:3Manor Born (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 4Blessed Vision (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -33%, 5Bourbon Life (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -52%, 7Fifty Cent Dollars (15/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -56%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Little Trouble — 17.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Little Trouble17.4% ◀Marcus Gift — 15.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Marcus Gift15.9%Illustrator — 15.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Illustrator15.2%Mongolian Memory — 15.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Mongolian Memory15.0%Don'Task Don'Ttell — 10.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Don'Task Don'Ttell10.7%Brilliant Spin — 10.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Brilliant Spin10.1%Manor Born — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Manor Born5.6%Blessed Vision — 4.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Blessed Vision4.3%Bourbon Life — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Bourbon Life3.1%Fifty Cent Dollars — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Fifty Cent Dollars2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Little Trouble17.4%3/1
Marcus Gift15.9%6/1
Illustrator15.2%8/1
Mongolian Memory15.0%8/1
Don'Task Don'Ttell10.7%4/1
Brilliant Spin10.1%3.5/1
Manor Born5.6%15/1
Blessed Vision4.3%15/1
Bourbon Life3.1%15/1
Fifty Cent Dollars2.9%15/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLittle Trouble: model 17.4% vs market 19.4% (-2.0 points)Little Trouble-2.0Marcus Gift: model 15.9% vs market 11.1% (+4.8 points)Marcus Gift+4.8Illustrator: model 15.2% vs market 8.6% (+6.5 points)Illustrator+6.5Mongolian Memory: model 15.0% vs market 8.6% (+6.3 points)Mongolian Memory+6.3Don'Task Don'Ttell: model 10.7% vs market 15.5% (-4.8 points)Don'Task Don'Ttell-4.8Brilliant Spin: model 10.1% vs market 17.3% (-7.2 points)Brilliant Spin-7.2Manor Born: model 5.6% vs market 4.9% (+0.7 points)Manor Born+0.7Blessed Vision: model 4.3% vs market 4.9% (-0.6 points)Blessed Vision-0.6Bourbon Life: model 3.1% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Bourbon Life-1.7Fifty Cent Dollars: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Fifty Cent Dollars-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Little Trouble17.4%19.4%-2.0
Marcus Gift15.9%11.1%+4.8
Illustrator15.2%8.6%+6.5
Mongolian Memory15.0%8.6%+6.3
Don'Task Don'Ttell10.7%15.5%-4.8
Brilliant Spin10.1%17.3%-7.2
Manor Born5.6%4.9%+0.7
Blessed Vision4.3%4.9%-0.6
Bourbon Life3.1%4.9%-1.7
Fifty Cent Dollars2.9%4.9%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 6811029
🎯 Longshots: 92863107451
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Remington Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 46 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-08-21 to 2026-10-17.

0%12%24%37%49%Our top pick: 39.1% from 46 racesOur top pick39.1%Expert consensus pick: 32.6% from 46 racesExpert consensus pick32.6%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick39.1%46
Expert consensus pick32.6%46
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000
Win:1Trust Daddy (5/2)
Place:3Order Of Merit (3/1)
Show:6Good Lovin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Seeking Sawyer (5/1), 4Texas Holdem (8/1)
Rest of field:7Prince Rama (6/1), 5Golden Rebal (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136274
🎯 Longshots: 3145627
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:3Banchero (2/1)
Place:7Twoshai S G A (3/1)
Show:2Sagebrush Runner (4/1)
Other contenders:4Buy Me Another (6/1), 6Da Mr. Dalleo Up (8/1)
Rest of field:1Da American Heart (8/1), 5By The Glenside (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372461
🎯 Longshots: 3724156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Skyforge (8/5)
Place:1By The Bottle (3/1)
Show:4Aransas Pass (5/1)
Other contenders:3Free Drop Nana (7/2), 2Pretty Dang Fast (6/1)
Rest of field:6Party Trick (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513426
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Metric Man (9/5)
Place:5Mo Town Gold (9/2)
Show:2Code Mandalore (4/1)
Other contenders:4Photoshopped (5/2), 1Red Hot Shot (5/1)
Rest of field:3Gospel Don (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642513
🎯 Longshots: 645231
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:6Infuriata (3/1)
Show:7Aloha Tracy (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mi Bella Reina (8/1), 10Chocolate Praline (6/1), 8Top Shelf Shake (15/1)
Rest of field:9Little Mary (20/1), 3Az Silencer (15/1), 2Mogold Forme (10/1), 4Saver's Joy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5671018
🎯 Longshots: 56781210349
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:7Crystal Claire (5/2)
Place:8Shelley's Money (5/1)
Show:3Super Enticing (7/2)
Other contenders:4Avalon Girl (6/1), 6Princess Kaiulani (9/2), 1Fayette Blue (12/1)
Rest of field:5Norma Jean Bling (8/1), 2Maya D (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738465
🎯 Longshots: 73546812
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Sweep The West (4/1)
Place:5West Code Lady (6/1)
Show:9Gift Of Grace (5/2)
Other contenders:7Bailey Sioux (7/2), 4Code Aurie (15/1), 3Chicks Night Out (15/1)
Rest of field:1West Texas Ruby (10/1), 8Red Flat Pumps (6/1), 2Caman Up (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 967581
🎯 Longshots: 459713628
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Brilliant Plan (5/2)
Place:6It's All Right (2/1)
Show:5Sinner's Sin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Berry Mischievous (9/2), 3Papa Ken (5/1)
Rest of field:1Aaron (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 465231
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:9Mongolian Memory (8/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:8Marcus Gift (6/1)
Show:2Illustrator (8/1)
Other contenders:10Don'task Don'ttell (4/1), 6Little Trouble (3/1), 1Brilliant Spin (7/2)
Rest of field:3Manor Born (15/1), 5Bourbon Life (15/1), 7Fifty Cent Dollars (15/1), 4Blessed Vision (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110892
🎯 Longshots: 92863107451
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #9 over #5 ($1 straight; box #9-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #9, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #8 over #6 ($1 straight; box #8-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.34 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
74Code Aurie15/1—7.3%+16.0%0.27%$0.27
TOTAL across 1 play:0.3%$0.27
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000
Win:1Trust Daddy (5/2)
Place:3Order Of Merit (3/1)
Show:6Good Lovin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Seeking Sawyer (5/1), 4Texas Holdem (8/1)
Rest of field:5Golden Rebal (8/1), 7Prince Rama (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136247
🎯 Longshots: 3145627
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:3Banchero (2/1)
Place:2Sagebrush Runner (4/1)
Show:7Twoshai S G A (3/1)
Other contenders:4Buy Me Another (6/1), 1Da American Heart (8/1)
Rest of field:5By The Glenside (8/1), 6Da Mr. Dalleo Up (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372415
🎯 Longshots: 3724156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Skyforge (8/5)
Place:1By The Bottle (3/1)
Show:4Aransas Pass (5/1)
Other contenders:3Free Drop Nana (7/2), 2Pretty Dang Fast (6/1)
Rest of field:6Party Trick (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513426
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Metric Man (9/5)
Place:5Mo Town Gold (9/2)
Show:2Code Mandalore (4/1)
Other contenders:4Photoshopped (5/2), 1Red Hot Shot (5/1)
Rest of field:3Gospel Don (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645213
🎯 Longshots: 645231
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:7Aloha Tracy (9/2)
Show:6Infuriata (3/1)
Other contenders:8Top Shelf Shake (15/1), 1Mi Bella Reina (8/1), 10Chocolate Praline (6/1)
Rest of field:2Mogold Forme (10/1), 3Az Silencer (15/1), 4Saver's Joy (20/1), 9Little Mary (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5671018
🎯 Longshots: 56781210349
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:7Crystal Claire (5/2)
Place:8Shelley's Money (5/1)
Show:3Super Enticing (7/2)
Other contenders:4Avalon Girl (6/1), 6Princess Kaiulani (9/2), 1Fayette Blue (12/1)
Rest of field:5Norma Jean Bling (8/1), 2Maya D (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738645
🎯 Longshots: 73546812
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Sweep The West (4/1)
Place:9Gift Of Grace (5/2)
Show:4Code Aurie (15/1)
Other contenders:5West Code Lady (6/1), 7Bailey Sioux (7/2), 8Red Flat Pumps (6/1)
Rest of field:3Chicks Night Out (15/1), 1West Texas Ruby (10/1), 2Caman Up (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 967584
🎯 Longshots: 459713628
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Brilliant Plan (5/2)
Place:6It's All Right (2/1)
Show:2Berry Mischievous (9/2)
Other contenders:3Papa Ken (5/1), 5Sinner's Sin (4/1)
Rest of field:1Aaron (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462531
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:9Mongolian Memory (8/1)
Place:6Little Trouble (3/1)
Show:1Brilliant Spin (7/2)
Other contenders:8Marcus Gift (6/1), 2Illustrator (8/1), 10Don'task Don'ttell (4/1)
Rest of field:3Manor Born (15/1), 7Fifty Cent Dollars (15/1), 5Bourbon Life (15/1), 4Blessed Vision (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110982
🎯 Longshots: 92863107451
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000
Win:1Trust Daddy (5/2)
Place:3Order Of Merit (3/1)
Show:6Good Lovin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Seeking Sawyer (5/1), 5Golden Rebal (8/1)
Rest of field:4Texas Holdem (8/1), 7Prince Rama (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 136257
🎯 Longshots: 3145627
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:3Banchero (2/1)
Place:7Twoshai S G A (3/1)
Show:2Sagebrush Runner (4/1)
Other contenders:4Buy Me Another (6/1), 1Da American Heart (8/1)
Rest of field:5By The Glenside (8/1), 6Da Mr. Dalleo Up (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372415
🎯 Longshots: 3724156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Skyforge (8/5)
Place:1By The Bottle (3/1)
Show:3Free Drop Nana (7/2)
Other contenders:4Aransas Pass (5/1), 2Pretty Dang Fast (6/1)
Rest of field:6Party Trick (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513426
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Metric Man (9/5)
Place:5Mo Town Gold (9/2)
Show:2Code Mandalore (4/1)
Other contenders:4Photoshopped (5/2), 1Red Hot Shot (5/1)
Rest of field:3Gospel Don (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645213
🎯 Longshots: 645231
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:6Infuriata (3/1)
Show:7Aloha Tracy (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mi Bella Reina (8/1), 10Chocolate Praline (6/1), 2Mogold Forme (10/1)
Rest of field:3Az Silencer (15/1), 8Top Shelf Shake (15/1), 9Little Mary (20/1), 4Saver's Joy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5671012
🎯 Longshots: 56781210349
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:7Crystal Claire (5/2)
Place:3Super Enticing (7/2)
Show:8Shelley's Money (5/1)
Other contenders:4Avalon Girl (6/1), 6Princess Kaiulani (9/2), 5Norma Jean Bling (8/1)
Rest of field:2Maya D (10/1), 1Fayette Blue (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738645
🎯 Longshots: 73546812
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:6Sweep The West (4/1)
Place:9Gift Of Grace (5/2)
Show:5West Code Lady (6/1)
Other contenders:7Bailey Sioux (7/2), 4Code Aurie (15/1), 3Chicks Night Out (15/1)
Rest of field:1West Texas Ruby (10/1), 8Red Flat Pumps (6/1), 2Caman Up (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 967581
🎯 Longshots: 459713628
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Brilliant Plan (5/2)
Place:6It's All Right (2/1)
Show:5Sinner's Sin (4/1)
Other contenders:2Berry Mischievous (9/2), 3Papa Ken (5/1)
Rest of field:1Aaron (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 465231
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:9Mongolian Memory (8/1)
Place:6Little Trouble (3/1)
Show:2Illustrator (8/1)
Other contenders:1Brilliant Spin (7/2), 8Marcus Gift (6/1), 3Manor Born (15/1)
Rest of field:10Don'task Don'ttell (4/1), 4Blessed Vision (15/1), 5Bourbon Life (15/1), 7Fifty Cent Dollars (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110982
🎯 Longshots: 92863107451
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#6,#1 (66%) / R2: #7,#3,#2 (76%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #7,#3,#2 (76%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#5 (68%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#5 (68%) / R5: #5,#6,#7 (71%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #6,#5 (68%) / R5: #5,#6,#7 (71%) / R6: #7,#3,#6 (66%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#6,#1 (66%) / R2: #7,#3,#2 (76%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#5 (68%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #7,#3,#2 (76%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#5 (68%) / R5: #5,#6,#7 (71%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AARONALOHA TRACYARANSAS PASSAVALON GIRLAZ SILENCER
BANCHEROBERRY MISCHIEVOUSBLESSED VISIONBOURBON LIFEBRILLIANT PLAN
BUY ME ANOTHERBY THE BOTTLEBY THE GLENSIDECAMAN UPCHICKS NIGHT OUT
CODE AURIECODE MANDALORECRYSTAL CLAIREDA AMERICAN HEARTDA MR. DALLEO UP
FAYETTE BLUEFIFTY CENT DOLLARSFREE DROP NANAGIFT OF GRACEGOLDEN REBAL
GOSPEL DONILLUSTRATORINFURIATAIT'S ALL RIGHTLEAD BY EXAMPLE
LITTLE TROUBLEMANOR BORNMARCUS GIFTMAYA DMETRIC MAN
MO TOWN GOLDMOGOLD FORMEMONGOLIAN MEMORYNORMA JEAN BLINGORDER OF MERIT
PARTY TRICKPHOTOSHOPPEDPRETTY DANG FASTPRINCE RAMAPRINCESS KAIULANI
RED HOT SHOTSAGEBRUSH RUNNERSAVER'S JOYSEEKING SAWYERSHELLEY'S MONEY
SKYFORGESUPER ENTICINGSWEEP THE WESTTEXAS HOLDEMTOP SHELF SHAKE
TWOSHAI S G AWEST CODE LADYWEST TEXAS RUBY

 


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