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Laurel Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the October 24, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%14%27%41%55%3%7%12%18%26%39%What we said — 3.1%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.4%What we said — 18.1%What we said — 26.0%What we said — 38.7%What we saidWhat happened — 3.5%What happened — 8.3%What happened — 13.5%What happened — 21.1%What happened — 30.3%What happened — 44.3%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.1%3.5%
7%7.4%8.3%
12%12.4%13.5%
18%18.1%21.1%
26%26.0%30.3%
39%38.7%44.3%

Race Day Overview

Laurel Park presents a 12-race Maryland Million card on Saturday, October 24, 2026, with first post at 11:15 a.m. ET. The program contains eight Maryland Million stakes and approximately $900,000 in total Maryland Million purses. The feature is Race 11, the $150,000 Maryland Million Classic at 1 1/8 miles.

The card includes five turf races and seven dirt races. The supplied program shows several large fields, including 15-horse fields in Races 8 and 10. Races 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11 are the principal stakes contests, while Races 1, 3, 8, and 12 are starter or claiming handicaps.

The most important form story is Barbadian Runner (Post 2), the defending Maryland Million Classic winner. He is 5-for-7 at 1 1/8 miles and was installed as the overwhelming morning-line favorite in the Classic, although the three-week turnaround is a meaningful handicapping consideration.

Thundering (Post 7) is the major favorite in the Maryland Million Turf after two stakes victories and a graded placing. Mopo (Post 10) is the leading name in the Maryland Million Ladies after a recent third-place finish at the same 1 1/16-mile distance.

The card also features the Jim McKay Maryland Million Handicapping Challenge, with qualifying opportunities for major handicapping contests.

Weather and Track Conditions

The available forecast calls for a sunny, dry Saturday in the Laurel Park area, with a projected high near 62 to 64 degrees, a morning low near 38 to 41 degrees, and essentially no precipitation expected. Forecast guidance also indicates a light northeast wind and zero measurable precipitation probability for the principal daytime period.

The forecast favors a fast dirt track and firm-to-good turf, subject to the usual race-day maintenance decisions. The supplied card lists turf races as T and dirt races as D, with no listed transfer to an alternate surface. No official race-morning surface downgrade or cancellation was identified in the available current information.

The dry weather should reduce the likelihood of a tiring or yielding turf course. On the dirt, horses with tactical speed and the ability to secure position before the first turn should receive the normal Laurel advantage, particularly in the six-furlong races.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Laurel's short sprint races generally reward early speed, clean breaks, and inside-to-middle tactical position. Posts 1 through 5 are not automatically advantageous if a horse lacks enough speed to avoid being buried, but posts 3 through 7 offer the best combination of forward position and room to maneuver.

In one-turn six-furlong races, outside posts are manageable for horses with speed, but wide trips become expensive when several runners leave sharply. In the two-turn dirt races, posts 1 through 4 can save ground, while posts 9 and outward need either tactical speed or a patient rider willing to drop back and make one run.

The two-turn turf races place a premium on position entering the first turn. Inside posts can save ground but carry the risk of traffic. Middle posts are often ideal for a horse with enough pace to secure a stalking position. Wide posts are most dangerous for need-the-lead runners because of the distance traveled before settling.

No reliable race-day rail or lane bias was available before the card. Bettors should watch the opening turf and dirt races for whether the inside is holding, whether speed is carrying, and whether the outer lanes are producing stronger finishes.

Race 1 — Post (11:15)/10:15/9:15/8:15 — 1870f | T | T | Hcp 16000s | BUN | Purse $60,000

Pace Analysis

This is a two-turn turf starter handicap with enough forwardly placed runners to create an honest but not extreme pace. Brighty (Post 10), Owhatanite (Post 8), and Our Ham Sandwich (Post 11) appear the most likely to secure prominent positions. Babble (Post 2) and Dominguez (Post 9) can sit just behind the first flight. The long distance favors a horse that relaxes rather than one that uses too much energy early.

Key Contenders

Brighty (Post 10) is the morning-line favorite and owns the most obvious class signal in the field. The wide draw is the principal concern, but the rider should have time to obtain position before the first turn. Brighty (Post 10) is the top selection if allowed to settle outside the main pace.

Owhatanite (Post 8) is the principal danger. The post is workable, and the horse should obtain a clean stalking trip without being committed to the lead. Owhatanite (Post 8) is especially appealing if the turf is firm and the early fractions are moderate.

Secondary Choices

Our Ham Sandwich (Post 11) has an outside draw but enough tactical positioning to avoid the worst of the trip. Our Ham Sandwich (Post 11) is a usable exacta horse at or near the morning line.

Babble (Post 2) can save ground and receive the best economical trip in the race. Babble (Post 2) needs to avoid getting shuffled back, but the inside post makes this runner a useful underneath horse.

Longshots

Italiano Kid (Post 1) receives the ground-saving draw and can improve if the pace becomes inefficient. All Fruits Ripe (Post 3) is a deep closer who needs a contested pace. Kitty's Son (Post 4) is a major outsider but benefits from an inside trip. Super Accelerate (Post 5) should be considered only for the bottom of larger exotics. Fiery Debut (Post 6) needs substantial improvement. Bad Boy Blaze (Post 7) has a workable post but a difficult class profile. Dominguez (Post 9) is a credible fringe contender who could outperform the 8-1 line. Latin Rebel (Post 12) faces the widest trip and is difficult to endorse unless the odds drift substantially.

Selections

Win: Brighty (Post 10)

Place: Owhatanite (Post 8)

Show: Our Ham Sandwich (Post 11)

The preferred wager is a win bet on Brighty (Post 10) at 3-1 or higher, with exactas using Owhatanite (Post 8), Our Ham Sandwich (Post 11), Babble (Post 2), and Dominguez (Post 9).

Race 2 — Post (11:43)/10:43/9:43/8:43 — 1320f | D | N | MdMlSprtB100k | BUN | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

This six-furlong Maryland Million sprint should develop a strong pace. Celtic Contender (Post 7), Haileysfirstnotion (Post 8), Suremeanttobe (Post 4), and Band Camp (Post 3) all have reasons to be forward. If the two favorites engage early, a stalking horse from the middle of the field could capitalize.

Key Contenders

Celtic Contender (Post 7) is the narrow top choice. The horse has a favorable outside-middle draw, allowing the rider to avoid early congestion while keeping the leaders within range. Celtic Contender (Post 7) is the best combination of speed, position, and projected trip.

Haileysfirstnotion (Post 8) is the principal rival. The outside post is beneficial in a field with several possible pace factors, and Haileysfirstnotion (Post 8) can either press or stalk. The concern is that the horse may be forced into a duel with Celtic Contender (Post 7).

Suremeanttobe (Post 4) is the most attractive alternative to the two favorites. The inside-middle post should produce a clean stalking trip, and Suremeanttobe (Post 4) becomes particularly interesting if the top pair overdo the pace.

Secondary Choices

Band Camp (Post 3) has enough speed to stay involved and may receive the best trip if the leaders focus on each other. And Sum (Post 1) can save ground but must avoid being outkicked when the field turns for home. S S Sinatra (Post 10) is a pace-dependent outsider with some appeal for trifectas.

Longshots

Top Manipulator (Post 2) needs a substantial form reversal. Bold Diversion (Post 5) is another pace participant who must improve sharply. Close The Gate (Post 6) has little margin for error but could add value underneath. All The Hardways (Post 9) is listed without a rider and should not be used unless a rider is officially named. Circle P (Post 11) is also listed without a rider and is difficult to recommend in the current form.

Selections

Win: Celtic Contender (Post 7)

Place: Suremeanttobe (Post 4)

Show: Haileysfirstnotion (Post 8)

Use Celtic Contender (Post 7) over Suremeanttobe (Post 4), Haileysfirstnotion (Post 8), and Band Camp (Post 3) in exactas. A small saver exacta should reverse Suremeanttobe (Post 4) and Celtic Contender (Post 7).

Race 3 — Post (12:18)/11:18/10:18/9:18 — 1540f | D | T | Hcp 12500s | BUN | Purse $50,000

Pace Analysis

Kerness K (Post 11) is the clear class and speed centerpiece. Do It For Michael (Post 8) and Master Schemer (Post 6) are the most likely challengers, while Daddy Yankee (Post 2) could secure an economical stalking position. The principal question is whether Kerness K (Post 11) gets an uncontested trip or is pressured into using speed from the outside.

Key Contenders

Kerness K (Post 11) is the obvious horse to beat and is listed at even money. The outside post is not ideal, but the horse appears to have a substantial class advantage over this group. Kerness K (Post 11) is the strongest single on the early portion of the card.

Do It For Michael (Post 8) is the logical upset candidate. The post gives the rider room to maneuver, and the horse should be close enough to take advantage of any regression from Kerness K (Post 11).

Master Schemer (Post 6) is the most logical third horse. Master Schemer (Post 6) should be forwardly placed and could benefit if the favorite is forced to work from the outside.

Secondary Choices

Daddy Yankee (Post 2) has the best inside-trip potential among the main alternatives. Backnthewoods (Post 10) is a wide-draw price horse who could pick up pieces if the leaders tire.

Longshots

Tetched (Post 1) can save ground but needs a major class improvement. Amazing Bernie (Post 3) is difficult to support on current credentials. Addy's Laddy T N T (Post 4) is another longshot needing a new top effort. Heldish (Post 5) could improve with a clean trip but is still a minor underneath candidate. Quincannon (Post 7) needs a pace collapse. Tiz No Clown (Post 9) has a closing chance only if the favorite and other speed horses compromise each other. Flying To Work (Post 12) has an unfavorable outside position and must improve significantly. Cap Com (Post 13) faces the toughest trip and should be used sparingly, if at all.

Selections

Win: Kerness K (Post 11)

Place: Do It For Michael (Post 8)

Show: Master Schemer (Post 6)

Kerness K (Post 11) is a logical single in the early Pick 5, but the price is short. The best value is an exacta saver with Do It For Michael (Post 8) over Kerness K (Post 11), Master Schemer (Post 6), and Daddy Yankee (Post 2).

Race 4 — Post (12:56)/11:56/10:56/9:56 — 1870f | T | N | MdMilLdysB125k | BUM | Purse $125,000

Pace Analysis

Mopo (Post 10) and Nick's Notion (Post 2) are the most prominent pace influences. Lendalfoot (Post 3) should be able to settle close to the leaders, while High View (Post 7) and Precious Avary (Post 8) may track from midpack. The race should be run at a controlled pace, placing a premium on tactical position and turn of foot.

Key Contenders

Mopo (Post 10) is the narrow top choice and has already demonstrated ability at this distance. The outside post creates some trip risk, but Mopo (Post 10) should have enough time to cross over or secure a stalking position. Mopo (Post 10) is the preferred win candidate if the odds remain near the listed price.

Nick's Notion (Post 2) is the main danger and owns the best ground-saving draw. Nick's Notion (Post 2) could dictate or sit just off the lead, making this horse dangerous if the turf favors speed.

Lendalfoot (Post 3) is a serious secondary contender. Lendalfoot (Post 3) should get a clean, efficient trip and is preferable to several higher-priced runners.

Secondary Choices

High View (Post 7) has enough tactical ability to remain within striking range. Precious Avary (Post 8) is another logical exotics horse, particularly if the leaders produce an honest pace. Beautiful Blome (Post 9) is an interesting outsider who could improve with a favorable stalking trip.

Longshots

Ecliptical Gina (Post 1) can save ground but needs a substantial class improvement. Old Bay (Post 4) is a pace-dependent longshot. Weekend Wife (Post 5) must improve sharply but has an inside draw. Juniper Juice (Post 6) is difficult to recommend on the listed line. Gold Digging Broad (Post 11) faces a wide trip and needs a significant form reversal.

Selections

Win: Mopo (Post 10)

Place: Nick's Notion (Post 2)

Show: Lendalfoot (Post 3)

Use Mopo (Post 10) and Nick's Notion (Post 2) in exactas, with Lendalfoot (Post 3), High View (Post 7), Precious Avary (Post 8), and Beautiful Blome (Post 9) underneath.

Race 5 — Post (1:35)/12:35/11:35/10:35 — 1320f | D | N | MdMilLassB100k | AOF | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

Whitten Way (Post 12), Olivia's Legacy (Post 6), Talking Foolish (Post 3), and Just A Smooch (Post 5) provide the primary speed. Whitten Way (Post 12) must work from the outside, while Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) has the best tactical position among the favorites. A contested but legitimate sprint pace is likely.

Key Contenders

Whitten Way (Post 12) is the clear morning-line favorite and the horse to beat. The outside draw is the main issue, but the rider can avoid traffic and keep the horse in the clear. Whitten Way (Post 12) is a win candidate, though the price should be monitored closely.

Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) is the strongest alternative. Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) has a more efficient post and should be placed close enough to exploit any wide trip by Whitten Way (Post 12).

Talking Foolish (Post 3) is a major contender at a more attractive price. The inside-middle draw should allow a ground-saving trip, and Talking Foolish (Post 3) can be dangerous if the front runners battle.

Secondary Choices

Just A Smooch (Post 5) is a reliable exotics candidate with enough speed to stay involved. Whose Notion (Post 11) has an outside post but can close into a quick pace. Belle Shot (Post 4) is an appealing underneath horse if the odds remain near 10-1.

Longshots

Mountain Mamba (Post 1) could save ground and outrun the price. Blo Your Mind (Post 2) has a favorable post but needs improvement. Legend's Girl (Post 7) is a deep outsider who requires a pace meltdown. Alta Vista Chapel (Post 8) has a difficult class assignment. Adding Dixie (Post 9) needs a career-best effort. Bourbon N Music (Post 10) is another longshot who may be compromised by the pace. Gypsy Lullaby (Post 13) has speed potential but the widest draw and a difficult setup.

Selections

Win: Olivia's Legacy (Post 6)

Place: Whitten Way (Post 12)

Show: Talking Foolish (Post 3)

The value play is Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) over Whitten Way (Post 12) in the exacta. Just A Smooch (Post 5), Talking Foolish (Post 3), and Belle Shot (Post 4) should be used underneath.

Race 6 — Post (2:10)/1:10/12:10/11:10 — 1210f | T | N | MdMilTfSpB100k | BUN | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

Whenigetotheaven (Post 8), Witty (Post 9), Had To Have Him (Post 4), and Cactus (Post 12) are the most likely pace participants. The two favorites occupy adjacent outside-middle posts and could engage early. If the pace becomes too aggressive, Tidewater (Post 3) and Jessica's Eyes (Post 6) may benefit.

Key Contenders

Witty (Post 9) is the top selection because the post gives the rider options and the horse should be able to remain close without being pinned. Witty (Post 9) is a strong win candidate if the turf remains firm.

Whenigetotheheaven (Post 8) is the main rival. The horse has the tactical speed to control the race or sit behind Had To Have Him (Post 4). Whenigetotheheaven (Post 8) is dangerous but vulnerable if forced into a prolonged duel with Witty (Post 9).

Had To Have Him (Post 4) is the most attractive secondary contender. The inside-middle post and likely stalking trip make Had To Have Him (Post 4) an excellent exacta horse.

Secondary Choices

Cactus (Post 12) has a wide post but may be the best late-running alternative. Tidewater (Post 3) should save ground and could pick up pieces. Jessica's Eyes (Post 6) has enough tactical speed to remain competitive.

Longshots

Boastfully Irish (Post 1) can improve with a ground-saving trip. Elon (Post 2) needs substantial improvement. Katie's Notion (Post 5) is a major outsider who must show more speed. World On Fire (Post 7) is another longshot with a difficult pace scenario. Blame The Tux (Post 10) could benefit from a hot pace but is not a primary win candidate. Notion In Motion (Post 11) is listed without a rider and should be excluded unless a rider is named.

Selections

Win: Witty (Post 9)

Place: Had To Have Him (Post 4)

Show: Whenigetotheheaven (Post 8)

The preferred structure is Witty (Post 9) over Had To Have Him (Post 4) and Whenigetotheheaven (Post 8), with Cactus (Post 12), Tidewater (Post 3), and Jessica's Eyes (Post 6) underneath.

Race 7 — Post (2:45)/1:45/12:45/11:45 — 1540f | D | N | MdMlDstfB100k | BUM | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2), Divine Seeker (Post 7), and Slewperstitus (Post 10) are the central pace factors. Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2) has the inside advantage, while Divine Seeker (Post 7) should be able to apply pressure without being trapped. The likely pace is moderate, favoring horses able to stay within three lengths of the lead.

Key Contenders

Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2) is the deserving favorite. The inside post is favorable, and the horse should be able to control the pace or establish a stalking position. Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2) is the top selection, though the even-money price leaves little room for error.

Divine Seeker (Post 7) is the most likely upsetter. The middle post is ideal, and the horse can keep the favorite honest without being committed to a wide trip. Divine Seeker (Post 7) is the best value alternative.

Slewperstitus (Post 10) has enough speed to be a factor, but the post may force a wide journey. Slewperstitus (Post 10) remains a logical contender for the lower half of exactas and trifectas.

Secondary Choices

Onyx Ten (Post 9) is a usable closer who could benefit from pressure. Doc's Miracle (Post 4) has a favorable inside position and can save ground. Irish Jig (Post 8) is a price horse with a chance to pick up minor awards.

Longshots

Divine Intentions (Post 1) can save ground but needs a large improvement. Celtic Harp (Post 3) has a good draw but lacks the apparent class of the favorites. Violet's Charm (Post 5) needs a new top. Rerun Table (Post 6) is another outsider who must improve. Kissedbyanangel (Post 11) faces a difficult outside setup.

Selections

Win: Divine Seeker (Post 7)

Place: Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2)

Show: Slewperstitus (Post 10)

Use Divine Seeker (Post 7) as the value win play. Exactas should key Divine Seeker (Post 7) and Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2) over Slewperstitus (Post 10), Onyx Ten (Post 9), and Doc's Miracle (Post 4).

Race 8 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1870f | T | T | Hcp 16000s | BUM | Purse $60,000

Pace Analysis

Gift Of Gab (Post 7), Set Ablaze (Post 14), Bay Street (Post 5), and Shine On Moon (Post 2) are the principal pace influences. The outside horses face a significant first-turn challenge, while Shine On Moon (Post 2) should be able to save ground. This race could favor a patient stalker if Gift Of Gab (Post 7) and Set Ablaze (Post 14) engage early.

Key Contenders

Gift Of Gab (Post 7) is the top choice. The post is excellent for a two-turn turf race, and Gift Of Gab (Post 7) should secure a forward position without spending too much energy. The horse is the most attractive combination of trip and price.

Set Ablaze (Post 14) is the major danger, but the far outside post is a serious concern. Set Ablaze (Post 14) will need to be rated early or accept a wide journey.

Bay Street (Post 5) has the best price among the primary contenders. Bay Street (Post 5) should receive a clean ground-saving trip and is an appealing exacta and trifecta horse.

Secondary Choices

Shine On Moon (Post 2) has the ideal post for saving ground and could be more effective if the pace slows. Happy This Day (Post 9) can close into the expected pace and is a useful midpriced alternative. Don't Tell Deren (Post 6) is another horse with enough tactical ability to remain involved.

Longshots

Belle Of Liberty (Post 1) is listed without a rider and should not be used unless a rider is assigned. Katarzyna (Post 3) needs improvement. Dona Luna (Post 4) is a deep outsider with a favorable post. Rylnnslookinglucky (Post 8) has a difficult class profile. Boys Go To Jupiter (Post 10) needs a pace collapse. Bourbon N Lace (Post 11) faces a wide trip and substantial class pressure. Fivecommatwo (Post 12) is an unlikely win candidate. Doesn't Hurt to Flirt (Post 13) could improve at a price but must overcome the draw.

Selections

Win: Gift Of Gab (Post 7)

Place: Bay Street (Post 5)

Show: Set Ablaze (Post 14)

Gift Of Gab (Post 7) is the preferred win bet at 2-1 or better. Use Bay Street (Post 5), Shine On Moon (Post 2), Happy This Day (Post 9), and Set Ablaze (Post 14) in exactas and trifectas.

Race 9 — Post (3:51)/2:51/1:51/12:51 — 1320f | D | N | MdMlNrsryB100k | AON | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

Walt's Notion (Post 9), Aruba Ariba (Post 10), Monster Mitch (Post 6), and Remembertheword (Post 11) are the key speed horses. The race could feature an honest pace, but Walt's Notion (Post 9) appears capable of controlling the tempo from a favorable outside-middle post.

Key Contenders

Walt's Notion (Post 9) is the horse to beat and the most likely winner. The post provides room to establish position, and the horse should be able to avoid the tight quarters faced by the inside runners. Walt's Notion (Post 9) is a logical Pick 5 single, although the 1-1 line offers little value.

Aruba Ariba (Post 10) is the principal challenger. Aruba Ariba (Post 10) should stay close to Walt's Notion (Post 9) and is the most likely horse to capitalize on any mistake by the favorite.

Monster Mitch (Post 6) is a credible alternative with a better price. Monster Mitch (Post 6) should be forwardly placed and could be dangerous if Walt's Notion (Post 9) receives too much pressure.

Secondary Choices

Remembertheword (Post 11) has outside speed and can stay involved. Derry Moon (Post 3) could save ground and improve with a clean trip. Futile Gesture (Post 4) is another logical underneath horse.

Longshots

Uncle K O (Post 1) has the best ground-saving possibility among the outsiders. El Pantera (Post 2) needs substantial improvement. Sip Of Manhattan (Post 7) is a pace-dependent closer. Eclipseness (Post 8) has a chance to improve but must overcome the favorite. Metallican (Post 12) has a difficult outside draw but could hit the ticket if the pace collapses.

Selections

Win: Walt's Notion (Post 9)

Place: Aruba Ariba (Post 10)

Show: Monster Mitch (Post 6)

Walt's Notion (Post 9) is a usable single for horizontal wagers. For vertical wagers, use Aruba Ariba (Post 10), Monster Mitch (Post 6), Remembertheword (Post 11), Derry Moon (Post 3), and Futile Gesture (Post 4).

Race 10 — Post (4:22)/3:22/2:22/1:22 — 1980f | T | N | MdMllTurfB125k | BUN | Purse $125,000

Pace Analysis

Thundering (Post 7) is the controlling speed and class horse. Alakan (Post 2), Hardspun Reason (Post 15), Pont Aven (Post 8), and Hanksdiviningrod (Post 6) should form the main stalking group. The major pace question is whether Hardspun Reason (Post 15) is used aggressively from the far outside, which could soften the favorite.

Key Contenders

Thundering (Post 7) is the clear selection. The horse brings two stakes victories and graded-level form, and the middle post should provide a clean trip. Thundering (Post 7) is one of the strongest win candidates on the card.

Alakan (Post 2) is the principal alternative. The inside post should allow Alakan (Post 2) to save ground, and the horse could be dangerous if Thundering (Post 7) fails to settle comfortably.

Hardspun Reason (Post 15) has ability but must overcome the far outside post. Hardspun Reason (Post 15) is more attractive underneath than as a win play unless the odds are substantially higher than the listed line.

Secondary Choices

Pont Aven (Post 8) is a logical stalker with a favorable post. Hanksdiviningrod (Post 6) should receive a ground-saving trip and has a chance to complete the exacta. Wicked Prankster (Post 11) is worth including because the horse returns to turf after a poor effort on dirt; previous turf efforts were substantially better.

Longshots

Crabs N Beer (Post 1) can save ground but needs a major class improvement. Magical Mondays (Post 3) is a price horse who could benefit from a slow pace. Virginia Fitz (Post 4) needs a new top. Zevon (Post 5) is an outsider but recently missed narrowly in a Laurel starter allowance, making the horse more usable than the odds suggest. Galatown Guy (Post 9) needs improvement. Live Stream (Post 10) is difficult to endorse on the listed form. Wicked Prankster (Post 11) has a legitimate rebound chance. Majestic Blue (Post 12) is a deep outsider. King's River (Post 13) faces a very difficult task. War Humor (Post 14) must overcome the outside position.

Selections

Win: Thundering (Post 7)

Place: Alakan (Post 2)

Show: Pont Aven (Post 8)

Thundering (Post 7) is the preferred Pick 5 anchor and should be keyed over Alakan (Post 2), Pont Aven (Post 8), Hanksdiviningrod (Post 6), Wicked Prankster (Post 11), and Zevon (Post 5).

Race 11 — Post (4:54)/3:54/2:54/1:54 — 1980f | D | N | MdMilClscB150k | BUN | Purse $150,000

Pace Analysis

Market Maven (Post 1), Barbadian Runner (Post 2), In The Dance (Post 5), and Sacred Thunder (Post 7) are the likely forward horses. Barbadian Runner (Post 2) does not need the lead and should have an ideal inside-stalking trip. If the favorite is fit on the short turnaround, the race may be decided by class rather than pace.

Key Contenders

Barbadian Runner (Post 2) is the clear horse to beat and the defending champion. The 1 1/8-mile distance is a major positive, with Barbadian Runner (Post 2) having won five of seven at the trip. The concern is the atypical three-week turnaround, but the horse's distance record and class advantage make Barbadian Runner (Post 2) the logical selection.

Market Maven (Post 1) is the most interesting alternative. The inside post should produce a ground-saving trip, and Market Maven (Post 1) could capitalize if Barbadian Runner (Post 2) regresses.

Derbyness (Post 9) is an appealing secondary horse if the listed 5-1 price is available. Derbyness (Post 9) has enough tactical speed to stay within range and could be the best price horse in the race.

Secondary Choices

Sacred Thunder (Post 7) should be included in all exotics because the post allows a clean stalking trip. Wickeddivine (Post 8) has enough ability to close into an honest pace. In The Dance (Post 5) could improve with a more efficient trip than the favorite and is usable underneath.

Longshots

Goodbye Note (Post 3) has an inside draw but needs a career-best effort. Omar Comin (Post 4) is a substantial outsider who may benefit from a pace collapse. Davyjonz (Post 6) needs to improve but can save ground. Roll On Jesse (Post 10) is a deep outsider who would need a major form reversal. Bill Of Rights (Post 11) has the widest post and is difficult to recommend unless the pace becomes exceptionally fast.

Selections

Win: Barbadian Runner (Post 2)

Place: Market Maven (Post 1)

Show: Derbyness (Post 9)

Barbadian Runner (Post 2) is the logical single in late Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers, but the short price makes Market Maven (Post 1) the better win-value alternative. Exactas should use Barbadian Runner (Post 2) and Market Maven (Post 1) over Derbyness (Post 9), Sacred Thunder (Post 7), Wickeddivine (Post 8), and In The Dance (Post 5).

Race 12 — Post (5:26)/4:26/3:26/2:26 — 1540f | D | T | Hcp 12500s | BUM | Purse $50,000

Pace Analysis

Yes Picnic (Post 4), On A Proud Note (Post 6), Marriedtothegame (Post 14), and Lady Zeta (Post 13) are the principal pace influences. The outside horses may be forced to use energy early, while Yes Picnic (Post 4) and On A Proud Note (Post 6) have the best chance to secure position economically.

Key Contenders

Yes Picnic (Post 4) is the top selection. The post is favorable, the horse should be close to the pace, and the 4-1 line offers a reasonable balance between probability and price.

On A Proud Note (Post 6) is the main rival. The horse should receive a forward trip and is a dependable exacta candidate. On A Proud Note (Post 6) is preferable to several shorter-priced horses because the post is efficient and the pace setup is favorable.

Marriedtothegame (Post 14) has ability but must overcome the far outside post. The horse is still a contender because the field is not especially deep, but the rider must avoid a wide first turn.

Secondary Choices

Spring Training (Post 8) is a logical alternative but is listed without a rider and should be monitored for an official replacement. Last Gift (Post 3) has the kind of inside post that can produce an improved effort. Sunflower State (Post 12) is a usable price horse with some late-running appeal. Lady Zeta (Post 13) can remain involved if the rider avoids a wide trip.

Longshots

Ade (Post 1) can save ground but needs substantial improvement. Hey Alexa (Post 2) is another outsider who must improve. Role's Mischief (Post 5) has a difficult task. Missy's Map (Post 7) needs a pace collapse. Over My Cents (Post 9) is a deep outsider. Always Forward (Post 10) faces a difficult class and pace assignment. Royal Seamstress (Post 11) could improve with a clean trip. Kinda Krazy (Post 15) has the widest post and is difficult to recommend.

Selections

Win: Yes Picnic (Post 4)

Place: On A Proud Note (Post 6)

Show: Marriedtothegame (Post 14)

Use Yes Picnic (Post 4) and On A Proud Note (Post 6) as the primary exacta combination. Add Last Gift (Post 3), Sunflower State (Post 12), Lady Zeta (Post 13), and Marriedtothegame (Post 14) for broader trifectas.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mychel J Sanchez receives several important mounts, including Brighty (Post 10) in Race 1, Suremeanttobe (Post 4) in Race 2, Divine Seeker (Post 7) in Race 7, Eclipseness (Post 8) in Race 9, and Market Maven (Post 1) in Race 11. The most strategically important assignments are Divine Seeker (Post 7) and Market Maven (Post 1), both of whom need efficient tactical trips against short-priced favorites.

Pascacio Lopez rides several major contenders, including Band Camp (Post 3), Mopo (Post 10), Whitten Way (Post 12), Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2), Walt's Notion (Post 9), and Thundering (Post 7). His strongest opportunities appear to be Mopo (Post 10), Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2), Walt's Notion (Post 9), and Thundering (Post 7), all of whom should be forwardly placed.

Xavier Perez has useful assignments on Do It For Michael (Post 8), Alta Vista Chapel (Post 8), Jessica's Eyes (Post 6), Don't Tell Deren (Post 6), and Aruba Ariba (Post 10). Aruba Ariba (Post 10) is the most attractive of those mounts, while Do It For Michael (Post 8) is a legitimate upset candidate.

Several horses are listed without riders: All The Hardways (Post 9) and Circle P (Post 11) in Race 2, Notion In Motion (Post 11) in Race 6, Belle Of Liberty (Post 1) in Race 8, and Spring Training (Post 8) in Race 12. Those horses should not be included in serious wagers until a rider is officially assigned.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jamie Ness has an especially strong presence with Kerness K (Post 11) in Race 3, Eclipseness (Post 8) and Metallican (Post 12) in Race 9, and Market Maven (Post 1) and In The Dance (Post 5) in Race 11. Kerness K (Post 11) is the dominant class horse in Race 3, while Market Maven (Post 1) is the most attractive value alternative to Barbadian Runner (Post 2).

Gary Capuano sends out Mopo (Post 10) in Race 4, Onyx Ten (Post 9) in Race 7, and Walt's Notion (Post 9) in Race 9. Mopo (Post 10) and Walt's Notion (Post 9) are the stable's most prominent win candidates, while Onyx Ten (Post 9) is more attractive for underneath use.

John Robb has Do It For Michael (Post 8) in Race 3, Alta Vista Chapel (Post 8) in Race 5, Jessica's Eyes (Post 6) in Race 6, Don't Tell Deren (Post 6) in Race 8, Aruba Ariba (Post 10) in Race 9, and Marriedtothegame (Post 14) in Race 12. The strongest runners from this group are Do It For Michael (Post 8), Aruba Ariba (Post 10), and Marriedtothegame (Post 14).

Timothy Keefe has Weekend Wife (Post 5) in Race 4, Blo Your Mind (Post 2) in Race 5, and Had To Have Him (Post 4) in Race 6. Had To Have Him (Post 4) is the most competitive of the trio and is a serious exacta candidate.

Graham Motion sends out Boastfully Irish (Post 1) in Race 6 and Alakan (Post 2) and Hardspun Reason (Post 15) in Race 10. Alakan (Post 2) is the best-positioned Motion runner, while Hardspun Reason (Post 15) must overcome the outside draw.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The strongest win candidates are Thundering (Post 7) in Race 10, Kerness K (Post 11) in Race 3, Walt's Notion (Post 9) in Race 9, and Barbadian Runner (Post 2) in Race 11. Thundering (Post 7) is the most trustworthy favorite because of class, distance, and current stakes form. Kerness K (Post 11) is the strongest single from a pure class standpoint.

The best value win candidates are Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) in Race 5, Divine Seeker (Post 7) in Race 7, Bay Street (Post 5) in Race 8, Market Maven (Post 1) in Race 11, and Yes Picnic (Post 4) in Race 12. Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) has the best trip advantage over the outside favorite, while Divine Seeker (Post 7) is the most attractive alternative to a very short-priced favorite.

A practical early Pick 5 structure is Race 1: 8, 10, 11; Race 2: 4, 7, 8; Race 3: 11; Race 4: 2, 3, 10; Race 5: 3, 5, 6, 12. The most economical version is to single Kerness K (Post 11) in Race 3 and keep Race 1 relatively narrow.

A late Pick 5 structure is Race 8: 2, 5, 7, 9, 14; Race 9: 6, 9, 10, 11; Race 10: 2, 7, 8, 11; Race 11: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9; Race 12: 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14. The aggressive version singles Thundering (Post 7) in Race 10 and uses Barbadian Runner (Post 2) as a single in Race 11.

The best exacta anchors are Brighty (Post 10) over Owhatanite (Post 8) in Race 1, Olivia's Legacy (Post 6) over Whitten Way (Post 12) in Race 5, Divine Seeker (Post 7) over Takethemoneyhoney (Post 2) in Race 7, Thundering (Post 7) over Alakan (Post 2) in Race 10, and Market Maven (Post 1) over Barbadian Runner (Post 2) in Race 11.

The best potential upset is Market Maven (Post 1) in the Classic. Barbadian Runner (Post 2) is clearly the horse to beat and has an exceptional record at the distance, but the short turnaround and extremely short price create the possibility of an underlaid favorite.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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