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Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Del Mar, November 16, 2025.

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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs – 12:30 PM – Purse: $33,000 BOXED EXACTA

Win: Charmz Away (2) – 83% confidence🥈
Place: Irish Element (6) – 75% confidence
Show: Fire Mountain (3) – 58% confidence🥇
Alternative: Go Trigger Cut (4) – 50% confidence

This weak California-bred maiden claiming sprint has Charmz Away as the overwhelming consensus choice despite the eight-month layoff. His proven Del Mar form and class advantage in this spot combined with the no-claim waiver make him the horse to beat. Irish Element brings the best speed figures though most came on turf, while Fire Mountain adds first-time starter intrigue with solid breeding. Go Trigger Cut offers second-out improvement potential, and Warren's Hot Rod provides a live longshot alternative as a first-time starter for Craig Lewis.​

Race 2 – Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs – 1:00 PM – Purse: $34,000

Win: Stanford Dropout (7) – 67% confidence
Place: Marcos Performance (6) – 92% confidence🥈
Show: Chase N Ryan (1) – 58% confidence🥇
Alternative: My Moroni (2) – 42% confidence🥉

This competitive two-year-old claiming sprint features Stanford Dropout returning off freshening with the field's best last-out Beyer of 59. Marcos Performance drops significantly in class with proven figures and versatility, making him a strong place contender. Chase N Ryan exits an impressive maiden score over a next-out winner and appears well-placed. My Moroni brings a two-race win streak seeking a third consecutive victory. The pace should be honest with multiple speed types engaged early.​

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile – 1:30 PM – Purse: $63,000

Win: John Metcalfe (5) – 67% confidence🥈
Place: Booked Clubhouse (6) – 58% confidence
Show: Rocky Colavito (4) – 42% confidence
Alternative: Scatalotadingdong (7) – 25% confidence🥉

The surface switch from turf to dirt for this two-turn route may not significantly impact the outcome. John Metcalfe gets a much better post draw and showed impressive improvement off freshening when finishing clear second. His pedigree suggests wet track affinity with enough gate speed to secure favorable position. Booked Clubhouse moves to dirt bred to handle routing over main track. Rocky Colavito stretches out second time with back-to-back bullet drills suggesting readiness. The distance will favor horses with tactical speed and stamina.​

Race 4 – Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs – 2:00 PM – Purse: $25,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: Pokerknightatvees (3) – 50% confidence🥇
Place: Last Call Zondlo (6) – 92% confidence🥉
Show: Western Freedom (7) – 50% confidence🥈
Alternative: Don't Fly Stand By (5) – 42% confidence

This claiming sprint presents interesting tactical dynamics with class-dropping Pokerknightatvees firing a best-of-22 bullet before his last disappointing effort. Last Call Zondlo figures prominently in the pace scenario with ability to control uncontested fractions in a field lacking significant early speed. Western Freedom steps up off recent claim for Mark Glatt who shows solid stats with new acquisitions. The setup may favor tactical speed with the front-runner holding natural advantage. Don't Fly Stand By adds closing dimension.​

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs – 2:30 PM – Purse: $61,000 BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: Brilliantly (4) – 67% confidence🥉
Place: Artisma (9) – 50% confidence🥈
Show: Mawu (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Magnificat (5) – 50% confidence🥇

The Bob Baffert factor dominates with two lightly-raced three-year-old fillies returning from layoffs showing sharp training patterns. Stakes-placed Mawu adds Lasix off 10-month layoff with Hernandez aboard while stablemate Brilliantly has flashed speed in both career tries with exceptional works. Artisma brings recency edge with consecutive runner-up finishes in fast allowance races and benefits from outside post for pressing trip. Magnificat also possesses recency advantage with quick dirt Beyers at par for this level. All four top contenders show strong off-track pedigrees.​

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs – 3:00 PM – Purse: $33,000 WIN + EXACTA

Win: Final Table Lady (6) – 50% confidence🥇
Place: Cotta Ride (5) – 42% confidence🥈
Show: Gracies Gem (8) – 67% confidence
Alternative: Tammy Baby (2) – 50% confidence

This wide-open maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies features limited form throughout creating opportunity for value plays. Final Table Lady has hit the board three times and drops for first-time tag suggesting connections believe she's ready. Longshot Cotta Ride offers intriguing second-time starter angle with surface switch to dirt, blinkers added, and bred to love off-going. Gracies Gem debuts for red-hot Papaprodromou barn with solid works and Rispoli aboard. Tammy Baby drops significantly after failing to repeat encouraging debut runner-up finish. The competitive nature suggests spreading in exotics.​

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs – 3:30 PM – Purse: $61,000

Win: Mr. Disrespectful (4) – 58% confidence
Place: Berlin Wall (7) – 92% confidence🥇
Show: Strongerthanbefore (6) – 42% confidence🥉
Alternative: Piper's Causeway (2) – 33% confidence

This California-bred allowance sprint features quick and contentious early pace setting up for stalkers and closers. Ultra-consistent Mr. Disrespectful removes blinkers and shortens up on barn change for Dollase with Hernandez taking the call after firing sharp bullet. Berlin Wall has run well in all four career starts, draws much better today, and appears sitting on peak effort third off the bench. Strongerthanbefore bounces back from wide trip with much-improved post and blinkers added. Kerry Gold provides exotic value with best late pace figure despite 1-for-25 record past two years. The pace battle should set up late runners.​

Race 8 – Desi Arnaz Stakes – 7 Furlongs – 4:00 PM – Purse: $100,000 BOXED EXACTA

Win: Himika (3) – 75% confidence🥈
Place: Revera (4) – 92% confidence🥇
Show: Bourbon And Ginger (2) – 42% confidence
Alternative: Cosmic Heat (6) – 42% confidence🥉

This rescheduled 100k stakes for two-year-old fillies features dominant Himika seeking repeat after decisive Anoakia Stakes victory over today's returning rivals. The Baffert trainee possesses 3-for-4 sprint record including two stakes wins and looked sharp bouncing off track Wednesday. Runner-up Revera benefits significantly from redraw moving from rail to post 4, positioning her outside her main rival in post 3. She prefers Del Mar and can apply pressure. Bourbon and Ginger looms as live longshot at 15-1 returning to dirt where she won Del Mar debut with sharp recent work and hot rider Demuro aboard. The tactical advantage from post position could prove decisive in the rematch.​

Race 9 – Starter Allowance – 1 Mile – 4:30 PM – Purse: $28,000

Win: Four O Six Creed (7) – 58% confidence
Place: Joint Venture (3) – 58% confidence🥈
Show: Big Juanito (4) – 58% confidence
Alternative: Trusty Rusty (11) – 33% confidence

This 16k starter allowance at one mile presents competitive field with multiple viable contenders. Four O Six Creed extends to route off back-to-back starter allowance sprint wins showing sharp current form with 6-1-4-0 wet track record. Joint Venture returns from two-month freshening after consecutive claiming wins including fast race over Del Mar surface. Big Juanito drops to perfect level after being overmatched with proven late-running ability at the distance. Also Eligible Trusty Rusty provides late threat in speed-laden field if he draws in. Maniatic IRE adds intrigue after being claimed by hot Papaprodromou barn who wheels back quickly while protecting. The pace should be moderate with tactical options available.​​

Early Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3): Key Charmz Away over Stanford Dropout and Marcos Performance with John Metcalfe and Booked Clubhouse. Investment: $12 for $2 ticket.

Middle Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7): This sequence offers excellent value potential through the competitive maiden claiming race. Use: Race 4 – Pokerknightatvees, Last Call Zondlo; Race 5 – Brilliantly, Mawu, Artisma; Race 6 – ALL; Race 7 – Mr. Disrespectful, Berlin Wall, Strongerthanbefore. Investment: $108 for 50-cent ticket.

Late Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9): The two contest races bookend the Desi Arnaz Stakes creating attractive Pick 3 potential. Use: Race 7 – Mr. Disrespectful, Berlin Wall, Strongerthanbefore; Race 8 – Himika, Revera; Race 9 – Four O Six Creed, Joint Venture, Big Juanito, Maniatic IRE. Investment: $48 for $1 ticket.

Race 1 Warren's Hot Rod Longshot: At projected 15-1 odds, Warren's Hot Rod offers intriguing value as first-time starter for Craig Lewis who gets 31 percent with second-time dirt sprint starters. Small win bet investment: $10 to win.​

Race 4 Exacta Box: Pokerknightatvees with Last Call Zondlo. These two dominate handicapper selections with complementary running styles. Investment: $4 for $2 exacta box.

Race 5 Baffert Exacta: Key Brilliantly over Mawu, Artisma, Magnificat. The Baffert duo shows sharp works and fresh legs advantage with Prat taking call on Brilliantly. Investment: $12 for $2 exacta.

Race 6 Wide Open Trifecta: Box Final Table Lady, Cotta Ride, Gracies Gem, Tammy Baby. The competitive maiden claiming nature with limited form creates excellent trifecta value opportunity. Investment: $24 for $1 trifecta box.

Race 7 Trifecta Box: Mr. Disrespectful, Berlin Wall, Strongerthanbefore. All three benefit from pace scenario and possess strong recent form with improved post positions. Investment: $12 for $2 trifecta box.

Race 8 Exacta Box with Longshot: Himika with Revera in exacta box, then add Bourbon and Ginger to trifecta. Despite Himika's dominance, Revera's improved post position creates upset potential while 15-1 Bourbon and Ginger returns to preferred dirt surface with hot rider. Investment: $4 for $2 exacta box; $12 for $2 trifecta box adding Bourbon and Ginger.

Race 9 Superfecta: Box Four O Six Creed, Joint Venture, Big Juanito, Maniatic IRE. The competitive starter allowance nature and value prices create excellent superfecta potential with multiple viable contenders. Investment: $24 for $1 superfecta box.

Best Bet of the Day: Pokerknightatvees in Race 4 offers best combination of class drop, tactical speed, sharp recent work, and trainer pattern going second off claim. Multiple handicappers including In The Money rate him as best bet.​

Longshot Special: Bourbon and Ginger in Race 8 at projected 15-1 odds returns to dirt where she won her Del Mar debut. The rescheduled race timing, surface switch from turf, and hot rider Demuro create value in short field stakes. California Pick 4 Longshots specifically highlights this selection.​

Value Play: Veritas Aequitas in Race 9 at projected 15-1 odds brings fresh Pacific Northwest form to competitive starter allowance. Frank Scatoni rates him as top pick while connections show confidence with recent work over Del Mar surface for new barn enjoying excellent year.​

Late Daily Double (Races 8-9): Box Himika and Revera in Race 8 with Four O Six Creed, Joint Venture, Big Juanito, and Maniatic IRE in Race 9. Investment: $16 for $2 daily double.

Rolling Exotic Strategy: Target the 50-cent Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) with singles on Charmz Away and Stanford Dropout, then spread through the competitive route maiden and claiming sprint before using four in Race 5. Investment: $32 for 50-cent ticket using 1x2x3x2x4.

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