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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Belmont, October 31, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 179 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-29.

0%11%22%32%43%Our top pick: 34.6% from 179 racesOur top pick34.6%Expert consensus pick: 27.4% from 179 racesExpert consensus pick27.4%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.6%179
Expert consensus pick27.4%179
 
Race 1  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Broadcast (7/5)
Place:1Port In A Storm (5/1)
Show:6Mr Webster (6/1)
Other contenders:4This Time For Sure (8/1), 2Mapped (10/1), 7Road To Ravello (8/1)
Rest of field:8Obliterated (10/1), 3Stars On The Water (10/1), 5Loyal Prince (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 916472
🎯 Longshots: 946712835
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Fireinhereyes (4/1)
Place:3Plenty Of Mischief (9/2)
Show:2Lady Azul (8/1)
Other contenders:5Outlaw Annie (7/2), 8Bikini Changer (5/1), 7Gold Control (6/1)
Rest of field:4Jadugar (6/1), 6Mia's Warrior (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135287
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:5Roman Grace (7/2)
Place:1Army Gal (4/1)
Show:8Interstatelovesong (5/2)
Other contenders:4L'eclair (9/2), 3Next On Stage (6/1), 7Some Ride (8/1)
Rest of field:2Collective Bargain (12/1), 6Mermaid Magic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 581437
🎯 Longshots: 87541632
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Boomington (7/2)
Place:8Unlock The Value (4/1)
Show:2Morning Prayer (9/2)
Other contenders:4Athena's Fury (4/1), 1Power Of Women (5/1), 6She's Our Tiz (6/1)
Rest of field:7Annagenda (15/1), 5Miami Style (20/1), 9Velocity Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 384216
🎯 Longshots: 384216759
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:8Party In The Army (2/1)
Place:4Onebigbeautfulbill (3/1)
Show:3Vekinda (5/1)
Other contenders:7B Thedonald (6/1), 1What's Up Bro (6/1), 6Elysian Meadows (10/1)
Rest of field:5Truman's Commander (10/1), 2Master Freud (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 843716
🎯 Longshots: 86435271
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Borago (7/2)
Place:11Hyperborean Spirit (4/1)
Show:9Arinato (5/1)
Other contenders:1Lee's Onthe Loose (6/1), 4Miracle Michael (8/1), 2Gaynor (10/1), 5A Lot Of Gold (15/1)
Rest of field:8God Of Fire (10/1), 10Themistocles (15/1), 7Mend The Way (15/1), 6Unspoken (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3119142
🎯 Longshots: 3941181265107
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #11, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:1Iron Palace (5/2)
Place:10Criteria (6/1)
Show:9Outrunner (5/1)
Other contenders:2No Pressure (6/1), 8Cuando (10/1), 7After Taxes (10/1)
Rest of field:4Repentless (12/1), 5Commerce (10/1), 3Lyneham (8/1), 6Marchon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1910287
🎯 Longshots: 18471095326
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:3Bold Fortune (2/1)
Place:7Red State (3/1)
Show:9Khozeiress (6/1)
Other contenders:10Uncle Jim (8/1), 8Share The Ludt (12/1), 4Sully (12/1), 5Mischief Mania (10/1)
Rest of field:2Go Irish (15/1), 11Schlomo (20/1), 1Toscano (30/1), 6He's Got This (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3791058
🎯 Longshots: 3475102118916
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 3/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Program Trading (2/1)
Place:6Ole Crazy Bone (3/1)
Show:2Tiz Dashing (7/2)
Other contenders:7Cugino (6/1), 3Carson's Run (10/1), 9A Bourbon For Toby (15/1)
Rest of field:5West Hollywood (15/1), 8Carcano (15/1), 4Thundering (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162739
🎯 Longshots: 396187254
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Extravaganzoo (3/1)
Place:10Forecheck (7/2)
Show:9Golden Maiden (5/1)
Other contenders:2Belmont Street (6/1), 8Luck Penny (5/1), 7Under The Moon (12/1)
Rest of field:1Saint Dymphna (12/1), 6Gold Fashioned (10/1), 4Boomesherang (20/1), 5Blessednotbothered (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3109827
🎯 Longshots: 31092761845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $49,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:11Tampa Storm (4/1)
Place:1Violent Act (3/1)
Show:3Speightful Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:9Hurricane Kaz (8/1), 4Always Honest (15/1), 8Nordic Fyre (8/1), 7Let's Get Weird (10/1)
Rest of field:6War Profiteer (10/1), 10It's Banksy (6/1), 5Portadown Lad (20/1), 2Midas' Banker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11139810
🎯 Longshots: 1941168573102
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 176 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-29.

0%10%20%29%39%Our top pick: 31.2% from 176 racesOur top pick31.2%Expert consensus pick: 27.8% from 176 racesExpert consensus pick27.8%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.2%176
Expert consensus pick27.8%176
 
Race 1  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:9Broadcast (7/5) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:1Port In A Storm (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%
Show:6Mr Webster (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:4This Time For Sure (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 2Mapped (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 7Road To Ravello (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:8Obliterated (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -48%, 3Stars On The Water (10/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -64%, 5Loyal Prince (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -57%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Broadcast — 37.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Broadcast37.3% ◀Port In A Storm — 12.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Port In A Storm12.5%Mr Webster — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Mr Webster11.7%This Time For Sure — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1This Time For Sure10.1%Mapped — 8.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Mapped8.7%Road To Ravello — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Road To Ravello8.6%Obliterated — 4.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Obliterated4.9%Stars On The Water — 3.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Stars On The Water3.4%Loyal Prince — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Loyal Prince2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Broadcast37.3%1.4/1
Port In A Storm12.5%5/1
Mr Webster11.7%6/1
This Time For Sure10.1%8/1
Mapped8.7%10/1
Road To Ravello8.6%8/1
Obliterated4.9%10/1
Stars On The Water3.4%10/1
Loyal Prince2.8%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBroadcast: model 37.3% vs market 32.5% (+4.8 points)Broadcast+4.8Port In A Storm: model 12.5% vs market 13.0% (-0.5 points)Port In A Storm-0.5Mr Webster: model 11.7% vs market 11.1% (+0.6 points)Mr Webster+0.6This Time For Sure: model 10.1% vs market 8.7% (+1.4 points)This Time For Sure+1.4Mapped: model 8.7% vs market 7.1% (+1.6 points)Mapped+1.6Road To Ravello: model 8.6% vs market 8.7% (-0.1 points)Road To Ravello-0.1Obliterated: model 4.9% vs market 7.1% (-2.2 points)Obliterated-2.2Stars On The Water: model 3.4% vs market 7.1% (-3.6 points)Stars On The Water-3.6Loyal Prince: model 2.8% vs market 4.9% (-2.1 points)Loyal Prince-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Broadcast37.3%32.5%+4.8
Port In A Storm12.5%13.0%-0.5
Mr Webster11.7%11.1%+0.6
This Time For Sure10.1%8.7%+1.4
Mapped8.7%7.1%+1.6
Road To Ravello8.6%8.7%-0.1
Obliterated4.9%7.1%-2.2
Stars On The Water3.4%7.1%-3.6
Loyal Prince2.8%4.9%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 916472
🎯 Longshots: 946712835
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Fireinhereyes (4/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +89%
Place:2Lady Azul (8/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +71%
Show:3Plenty Of Mischief (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -43%
Other contenders:5Outlaw Annie (7/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -62%, 6Mia's Warrior (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 7Gold Control (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -49%
Rest of field:4Jadugar (6/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%, 8Bikini Changer (5/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -68%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fireinhereyes — 32.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Fireinhereyes32.0% ◀Lady Azul — 17.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Lady Azul17.6%Plenty Of Mischief — 11.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Plenty Of Mischief11.2%Outlaw Annie — 9.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Outlaw Annie9.8%Mia'S Warrior — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Mia'S Warrior9.1%Gold Control — 7.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Gold Control7.8%Jadugar — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Jadugar6.5%Bikini Changer — 6.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Bikini Changer6.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fireinhereyes32.0%4/1
Lady Azul17.6%8/1
Plenty Of Mischief11.2%4.5/1
Outlaw Annie9.8%3.5/1
Mia'S Warrior9.1%8/1
Gold Control7.8%6/1
Jadugar6.5%6/1
Bikini Changer6.0%5/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFireinhereyes: model 32.0% vs market 15.6% (+16.4 points)Fireinhereyes+16.4Lady Azul: model 17.6% vs market 8.7% (+8.9 points)Lady Azul+8.9Plenty Of Mischief: model 11.2% vs market 14.2% (-3.1 points)Plenty Of Mischief-3.1Outlaw Annie: model 9.8% vs market 17.4% (-7.6 points)Outlaw Annie-7.6Mia'S Warrior: model 9.1% vs market 8.7% (+0.5 points)Mia'S Warrior+0.5Gold Control: model 7.8% vs market 11.2% (-3.4 points)Gold Control-3.4Jadugar: model 6.5% vs market 11.2% (-4.7 points)Jadugar-4.7Bikini Changer: model 6.0% vs market 13.0% (-7.1 points)Bikini Changer-7.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fireinhereyes32.0%15.6%+16.4
Lady Azul17.6%8.7%+8.9
Plenty Of Mischief11.2%14.2%-3.1
Outlaw Annie9.8%17.4%-7.6
Mia'S Warrior9.1%8.7%+0.5
Gold Control7.8%11.2%-3.4
Jadugar6.5%11.2%-4.7
Bikini Changer6.0%13.0%-7.1
🌧️ Off-track: 153287
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:4L'eclair (9/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Place:8Interstatelovesong (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -40%
Show:1Army Gal (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:5Roman Grace (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -25%, 3Next On Stage (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -38%, 7Some Ride (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:2Collective Bargain (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -47%, 6Mermaid Magic (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -46%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

L'Eclair — 21.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1L'Eclair21.1% ◀Interstatelovesong — 19.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Interstatelovesong19.4%Army Gal — 18.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Army Gal18.2%Roman Grace — 17.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Roman Grace17.6%Next On Stage — 9.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Next On Stage9.3%Some Ride — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Some Ride6.7%Collective Bargain — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Collective Bargain4.2%Mermaid Magic — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Mermaid Magic3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
L'Eclair21.1%4.5/1
Interstatelovesong19.4%2.5/1
Army Gal18.2%4/1
Roman Grace17.6%3.5/1
Next On Stage9.3%6/1
Some Ride6.7%8/1
Collective Bargain4.2%12/1
Mermaid Magic3.5%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherL'Eclair: model 21.1% vs market 14.2% (+6.9 points)L'Eclair+6.9Interstatelovesong: model 19.4% vs market 22.3% (-2.9 points)Interstatelovesong-2.9Army Gal: model 18.2% vs market 15.6% (+2.7 points)Army Gal+2.7Roman Grace: model 17.6% vs market 17.3% (+0.3 points)Roman Grace+0.3Next On Stage: model 9.3% vs market 11.1% (-1.8 points)Next On Stage-1.8Some Ride: model 6.7% vs market 8.7% (-2.0 points)Some Ride-2.0Collective Bargain: model 4.2% vs market 6.0% (-1.8 points)Collective Bargain-1.8Mermaid Magic: model 3.5% vs market 4.9% (-1.4 points)Mermaid Magic-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
L'Eclair21.1%14.2%+6.9
Interstatelovesong19.4%22.3%-2.9
Army Gal18.2%15.6%+2.7
Roman Grace17.6%17.3%+0.3
Next On Stage9.3%11.1%-1.8
Some Ride6.7%8.7%-2.0
Collective Bargain4.2%6.0%-1.8
Mermaid Magic3.5%4.9%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 845137
🎯 Longshots: 87541632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:3Boomington (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:8Unlock The Value (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:4Athena's Fury (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:1Power Of Women (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 2Morning Prayer (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -25%, 6She's Our Tiz (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -25%
Rest of field:5Miami Style (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 7Annagenda (15/1) 2% · fair 113-2 underlay -73%, 9Velocity Girl (20/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -73%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Boomington — 22.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Boomington22.2% ◀Unlock The Value — 17.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Unlock The Value17.4%Athena'S Fury — 15.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Athena'S Fury15.0%Power Of Women — 14.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Power Of Women14.5%Morning Prayer — 14.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Morning Prayer14.2%She'S Our Tiz — 11.1% win probability, morning line 6/1She'S Our Tiz11.1%Miami Style — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Miami Style2.6%Annagenda — 1.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Annagenda1.7%Velocity Girl — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Velocity Girl1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Boomington22.2%3.5/1
Unlock The Value17.4%4/1
Athena'S Fury15.0%4/1
Power Of Women14.5%5/1
Morning Prayer14.2%4.5/1
She'S Our Tiz11.1%6/1
Miami Style2.6%20/1
Annagenda1.7%15/1
Velocity Girl1.3%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBoomington: model 22.2% vs market 17.5% (+4.7 points)Boomington+4.7Unlock The Value: model 17.4% vs market 15.7% (+1.6 points)Unlock The Value+1.6Athena'S Fury: model 15.0% vs market 15.7% (-0.8 points)Athena'S Fury-0.8Power Of Women: model 14.5% vs market 13.1% (+1.3 points)Power Of Women+1.3Morning Prayer: model 14.2% vs market 14.3% (-0.1 points)Morning Prayer-0.1She'S Our Tiz: model 11.1% vs market 11.2% (-0.2 points)She'S Our Tiz-0.2Miami Style: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Miami Style-1.1Annagenda: model 1.7% vs market 4.9% (-3.2 points)Annagenda-3.2Velocity Girl: model 1.3% vs market 3.7% (-2.4 points)Velocity Girl-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Boomington22.2%17.5%+4.7
Unlock The Value17.4%15.7%+1.6
Athena'S Fury15.0%15.7%-0.8
Power Of Women14.5%13.1%+1.3
Morning Prayer14.2%14.3%-0.1
She'S Our Tiz11.1%11.2%-0.2
Miami Style2.6%3.7%-1.1
Annagenda1.7%4.9%-3.2
Velocity Girl1.3%3.7%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 384216
🎯 Longshots: 384216759
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:8Party In The Army (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:3Vekinda (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:7B Thedonald (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:4Onebigbeautfulbill (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -54%, 6Elysian Meadows (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -25%, 1What's Up Bro (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:5Truman's Commander (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%, 2Master Freud (15/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -42%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Party In The Army — 30.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Party In The Army30.4% ◀Vekinda — 18.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Vekinda18.9%B Thedonald — 15.9% win probability, morning line 6/1B Thedonald15.9%Onebigbeautfulbill — 13.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Onebigbeautfulbill13.3%Elysian Meadows — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Elysian Meadows7.0%What'S Up Bro — 5.8% win probability, morning line 6/1What'S Up Bro5.8%Truman'S Commander — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Truman'S Commander5.0%Master Freud — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Master Freud3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Party In The Army30.4%2/1
Vekinda18.9%5/1
B Thedonald15.9%6/1
Onebigbeautfulbill13.3%3/1
Elysian Meadows7.0%10/1
What'S Up Bro5.8%6/1
Truman'S Commander5.0%10/1
Master Freud3.7%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherParty In The Army: model 30.4% vs market 26.0% (+4.4 points)Party In The Army+4.4Vekinda: model 18.9% vs market 13.0% (+5.9 points)Vekinda+5.9B Thedonald: model 15.9% vs market 11.2% (+4.7 points)B Thedonald+4.7Onebigbeautfulbill: model 13.3% vs market 19.5% (-6.2 points)Onebigbeautfulbill-6.2Elysian Meadows: model 7.0% vs market 7.1% (-0.1 points)Elysian Meadows-0.1What'S Up Bro: model 5.8% vs market 11.2% (-5.3 points)What'S Up Bro-5.3Truman'S Commander: model 5.0% vs market 7.1% (-2.1 points)Truman'S Commander-2.1Master Freud: model 3.7% vs market 4.9% (-1.2 points)Master Freud-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Party In The Army30.4%26.0%+4.4
Vekinda18.9%13.0%+5.9
B Thedonald15.9%11.2%+4.7
Onebigbeautfulbill13.3%19.5%-6.2
Elysian Meadows7.0%7.1%-0.1
What'S Up Bro5.8%11.2%-5.3
Truman'S Commander5.0%7.1%-2.1
Master Freud3.7%4.9%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 843716
🎯 Longshots: 86435271
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Borago (7/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +32%
Place:11Hyperborean Spirit (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:1Lee's Onthe Loose (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:9Arinato (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -36%, 4Miracle Michael (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 2Gaynor (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%, 5A Lot Of Gold (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:10Themistocles (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%, 8God Of Fire (10/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -69%, 7Mend The Way (15/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -59%, 6Unspoken (12/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -68%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Borago — 27.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Borago27.4% ◀Hyperborean Spirit — 16.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Hyperborean Spirit16.2%Lee'S Onthe Loose — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Lee'S Onthe Loose11.9%Arinato — 11.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Arinato11.3%Miracle Michael — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Miracle Michael10.1%Gaynor — 6.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Gaynor6.4%A Lot Of Gold — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1A Lot Of Gold4.5%Themistocles — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Themistocles3.8%God Of Fire — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1God Of Fire3.0%Mend The Way — 2.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Mend The Way2.6%Unspoken — 2.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Unspoken2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Borago27.4%3.5/1
Hyperborean Spirit16.2%4/1
Lee'S Onthe Loose11.9%6/1
Arinato11.3%5/1
Miracle Michael10.1%8/1
Gaynor6.4%10/1
A Lot Of Gold4.5%15/1
Themistocles3.8%15/1
God Of Fire3.0%10/1
Mend The Way2.6%15/1
Unspoken2.6%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBorago: model 27.4% vs market 17.2% (+10.2 points)Borago+10.2Hyperborean Spirit: model 16.2% vs market 15.5% (+0.7 points)Hyperborean Spirit+0.7Lee'S Onthe Loose: model 11.9% vs market 11.1% (+0.8 points)Lee'S Onthe Loose+0.8Arinato: model 11.3% vs market 12.9% (-1.6 points)Arinato-1.6Miracle Michael: model 10.1% vs market 8.6% (+1.5 points)Miracle Michael+1.5Gaynor: model 6.4% vs market 7.1% (-0.6 points)Gaynor-0.6A Lot Of Gold: model 4.5% vs market 4.8% (-0.4 points)A Lot Of Gold-0.4Themistocles: model 3.8% vs market 4.8% (-1.0 points)Themistocles-1.0God Of Fire: model 3.0% vs market 7.1% (-4.0 points)God Of Fire-4.0Mend The Way: model 2.6% vs market 4.8% (-2.2 points)Mend The Way-2.2Unspoken: model 2.6% vs market 6.0% (-3.3 points)Unspoken-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Borago27.4%17.2%+10.2
Hyperborean Spirit16.2%15.5%+0.7
Lee'S Onthe Loose11.9%11.1%+0.8
Arinato11.3%12.9%-1.6
Miracle Michael10.1%8.6%+1.5
Gaynor6.4%7.1%-0.6
A Lot Of Gold4.5%4.8%-0.4
Themistocles3.8%4.8%-1.0
God Of Fire3.0%7.1%-4.0
Mend The Way2.6%4.8%-2.2
Unspoken2.6%6.0%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 3119142
🎯 Longshots: 3941181265107
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #11, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:1Iron Palace (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Place:9Outrunner (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:2No Pressure (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:10Criteria (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 8Cuando (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 7After Taxes (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:3Lyneham (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%, 4Repentless (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 5Commerce (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%, 6Marchon (12/1) 1% · fair 129-1 underlay -91%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Iron Palace — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Iron Palace20.6% ◀Outrunner — 15.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Outrunner15.0%No Pressure — 14.8% win probability, morning line 6/1No Pressure14.8%Criteria — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Criteria13.2%Cuando — 8.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Cuando8.8%After Taxes — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1After Taxes8.4%Lyneham — 7.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Lyneham7.9%Repentless — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Repentless6.2%Commerce — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Commerce4.4%Marchon — 0.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Marchon0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Iron Palace20.6%2.5/1
Outrunner15.0%5/1
No Pressure14.8%6/1
Criteria13.2%6/1
Cuando8.8%10/1
After Taxes8.4%10/1
Lyneham7.9%8/1
Repentless6.2%12/1
Commerce4.4%10/1
Marchon0.8%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherIron Palace: model 20.6% vs market 22.4% (-1.8 points)Iron Palace-1.8Outrunner: model 15.0% vs market 13.1% (+1.9 points)Outrunner+1.9No Pressure: model 14.8% vs market 11.2% (+3.6 points)No Pressure+3.6Criteria: model 13.2% vs market 11.2% (+2.0 points)Criteria+2.0Cuando: model 8.8% vs market 7.1% (+1.7 points)Cuando+1.7After Taxes: model 8.4% vs market 7.1% (+1.3 points)After Taxes+1.3Lyneham: model 7.9% vs market 8.7% (-0.8 points)Lyneham-0.8Repentless: model 6.2% vs market 6.0% (+0.1 points)Repentless+0.1Commerce: model 4.4% vs market 7.1% (-2.7 points)Commerce-2.7Marchon: model 0.8% vs market 6.0% (-5.3 points)Marchon-5.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Iron Palace20.6%22.4%-1.8
Outrunner15.0%13.1%+1.9
No Pressure14.8%11.2%+3.6
Criteria13.2%11.2%+2.0
Cuando8.8%7.1%+1.7
After Taxes8.4%7.1%+1.3
Lyneham7.9%8.7%-0.8
Repentless6.2%6.0%+0.1
Commerce4.4%7.1%-2.7
Marchon0.8%6.0%-5.3
🌧️ Off-track: 1921038
🎯 Longshots: 18471095326
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:3Bold Fortune (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Place:7Red State (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:9Khozeiress (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:10Uncle Jim (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -29%, 8Share The Ludt (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 4Sully (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 5Mischief Mania (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%
Rest of field:2Go Irish (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -38%, 11Schlomo (20/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -33%, 1Toscano (30/1) 3% · fair 35-1, 6He's Got This (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bold Fortune — 25.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Bold Fortune25.9% ◀Red State — 25.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Red State25.4%Khozeiress — 10.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Khozeiress10.3%Uncle Jim — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Uncle Jim8.2%Share The Ludt — 6.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Share The Ludt6.4%Sully — 6.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Sully6.0%Mischief Mania — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Mischief Mania5.2%Go Irish — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Go Irish4.0%Schlomo — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Schlomo3.3%Toscano — 2.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Toscano2.8%He'S Got This — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1He'S Got This2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bold Fortune25.9%2/1
Red State25.4%3/1
Khozeiress10.3%6/1
Uncle Jim8.2%8/1
Share The Ludt6.4%12/1
Sully6.0%12/1
Mischief Mania5.2%10/1
Go Irish4.0%15/1
Schlomo3.3%20/1
Toscano2.8%30/1
He'S Got This2.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBold Fortune: model 25.9% vs market 26.2% (-0.3 points)Bold Fortune-0.3Red State: model 25.4% vs market 19.7% (+5.7 points)Red State+5.7Khozeiress: model 10.3% vs market 11.2% (-0.9 points)Khozeiress-0.9Uncle Jim: model 8.2% vs market 8.7% (-0.5 points)Uncle Jim-0.5Share The Ludt: model 6.4% vs market 6.0% (+0.3 points)Share The Ludt+0.3Sully: model 6.0% vs market 6.0% (-0.1 points)Sully-0.1Mischief Mania: model 5.2% vs market 7.1% (-1.9 points)Mischief Mania-1.9Go Irish: model 4.0% vs market 4.9% (-1.0 points)Go Irish-1.0Schlomo: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.5 points)Schlomo-0.5Toscano: model 2.8% vs market 2.5% (+0.2 points)Toscano+0.2He'S Got This: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)He'S Got This-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bold Fortune25.9%26.2%-0.3
Red State25.4%19.7%+5.7
Khozeiress10.3%11.2%-0.9
Uncle Jim8.2%8.7%-0.5
Share The Ludt6.4%6.0%+0.3
Sully6.0%6.0%-0.1
Mischief Mania5.2%7.1%-1.9
Go Irish4.0%4.9%-1.0
Schlomo3.3%3.7%-0.5
Toscano2.8%2.5%+0.2
He'S Got This2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 3791058
🎯 Longshots: 3475102118916
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 3/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:6Ole Crazy Bone (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:1Program Trading (2/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -54%
Show:7Cugino (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:2Tiz Dashing (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -48%, 3Carson's Run (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 9A Bourbon For Toby (15/1) 8% · fair 23-2 overlay +29%
Rest of field:5West Hollywood (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 8Carcano (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 4Thundering (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ole Crazy Bone — 24.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Ole Crazy Bone24.8% ◀Program Trading — 18.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Program Trading18.8%Cugino — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Cugino13.2%Tiz Dashing — 13.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Tiz Dashing13.0%Carson'S Run — 9.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Carson'S Run9.2%A Bourbon For Toby — 7.9% win probability, morning line 15/1A Bourbon For Toby7.9%West Hollywood — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1West Hollywood5.7%Carcano — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Carcano4.8%Thundering — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Thundering2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ole Crazy Bone24.8%3/1
Program Trading18.8%2/1
Cugino13.2%6/1
Tiz Dashing13.0%3.5/1
Carson'S Run9.2%10/1
A Bourbon For Toby7.9%15/1
West Hollywood5.7%15/1
Carcano4.8%15/1
Thundering2.6%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOle Crazy Bone: model 24.8% vs market 19.6% (+5.1 points)Ole Crazy Bone+5.1Program Trading: model 18.8% vs market 26.2% (-7.4 points)Program Trading-7.4Cugino: model 13.2% vs market 11.2% (+2.0 points)Cugino+2.0Tiz Dashing: model 13.0% vs market 17.4% (-4.5 points)Tiz Dashing-4.5Carson'S Run: model 9.2% vs market 7.1% (+2.1 points)Carson'S Run+2.1A Bourbon For Toby: model 7.9% vs market 4.9% (+3.0 points)A Bourbon For Toby+3.0West Hollywood: model 5.7% vs market 4.9% (+0.8 points)West Hollywood+0.8Carcano: model 4.8% vs market 4.9% (-0.1 points)Carcano-0.1Thundering: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Thundering-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ole Crazy Bone24.8%19.6%+5.1
Program Trading18.8%26.2%-7.4
Cugino13.2%11.2%+2.0
Tiz Dashing13.0%17.4%-4.5
Carson'S Run9.2%7.1%+2.1
A Bourbon For Toby7.9%4.9%+3.0
West Hollywood5.7%4.9%+0.8
Carcano4.8%4.9%-0.1
Thundering2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 612739
🎯 Longshots: 396187254
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:3Extravaganzoo (3/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +31%
Place:10Forecheck (7/2) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +26%
Show:9Golden Maiden (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -52%
Other contenders:8Luck Penny (5/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -55%, 2Belmont Street (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53%, 6Gold Fashioned (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%
Rest of field:7Under The Moon (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -28%, 1Saint Dymphna (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -30%, 4Boomesherang (20/1) 1% · fair 159-2 underlay -75%, 5Blessednotbothered (20/1) 1% · fair 213-2 underlay -81%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Extravaganzoo — 30.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Extravaganzoo30.4% ◀Forecheck — 26.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Forecheck26.5%Golden Maiden — 8.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Golden Maiden8.7%Luck Penny — 8.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Luck Penny8.2%Belmont Street — 7.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Belmont Street7.2%Gold Fashioned — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Gold Fashioned5.7%Under The Moon — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Under The Moon5.6%Saint Dymphna — 5.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Saint Dymphna5.5%Boomesherang — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Boomesherang1.2%Blessednotbothered — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Blessednotbothered0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Extravaganzoo30.4%3/1
Forecheck26.5%3.5/1
Golden Maiden8.7%5/1
Luck Penny8.2%5/1
Belmont Street7.2%6/1
Gold Fashioned5.7%10/1
Under The Moon5.6%12/1
Saint Dymphna5.5%12/1
Boomesherang1.2%20/1
Blessednotbothered0.9%20/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherExtravaganzoo: model 30.4% vs market 19.4% (+11.0 points)Extravaganzoo+11.0Forecheck: model 26.5% vs market 17.2% (+9.2 points)Forecheck+9.2Golden Maiden: model 8.7% vs market 12.9% (-4.2 points)Golden Maiden-4.2Luck Penny: model 8.2% vs market 12.9% (-4.7 points)Luck Penny-4.7Belmont Street: model 7.2% vs market 11.1% (-3.9 points)Belmont Street-3.9Gold Fashioned: model 5.7% vs market 7.1% (-1.3 points)Gold Fashioned-1.3Under The Moon: model 5.6% vs market 6.0% (-0.3 points)Under The Moon-0.3Saint Dymphna: model 5.5% vs market 6.0% (-0.4 points)Saint Dymphna-0.4Boomesherang: model 1.2% vs market 3.7% (-2.5 points)Boomesherang-2.5Blessednotbothered: model 0.9% vs market 3.7% (-2.8 points)Blessednotbothered-2.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Extravaganzoo30.4%19.4%+11.0
Forecheck26.5%17.2%+9.2
Golden Maiden8.7%12.9%-4.2
Luck Penny8.2%12.9%-4.7
Belmont Street7.2%11.1%-3.9
Gold Fashioned5.7%7.1%-1.3
Under The Moon5.6%6.0%-0.3
Saint Dymphna5.5%6.0%-0.4
Boomesherang1.2%3.7%-2.5
Blessednotbothered0.9%3.7%-2.8
🌧️ Off-track: 3109826
🎯 Longshots: 31092761845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #9, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Violent Act (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Place:11Tampa Storm (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:3Speightful Storm (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:9Hurricane Kaz (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 7Let's Get Weird (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 8Nordic Fyre (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36%, 10It's Banksy (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%
Rest of field:6War Profiteer (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 4Always Honest (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 5Portadown Lad (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 2Midas' Banker (30/1) 0% · fair 236-1 underlay -87%
Race 11 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Violent Act — 19.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Violent Act19.3% ◀Tampa Storm — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Tampa Storm16.1%Speightful Storm — 13.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Speightful Storm13.8%Hurricane Kaz — 12.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Hurricane Kaz12.0%Let'S Get Weird — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Let'S Get Weird8.0%Nordic Fyre — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Nordic Fyre7.5%It'S Banksy — 6.9% win probability, morning line 6/1It'S Banksy6.9%War Profiteer — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1War Profiteer6.1%Always Honest — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Always Honest5.7%Portadown Lad — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Portadown Lad4.1%Midas' Banker — 0.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Midas' Banker0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Violent Act19.3%3/1
Tampa Storm16.1%4/1
Speightful Storm13.8%6/1
Hurricane Kaz12.0%8/1
Let'S Get Weird8.0%10/1
Nordic Fyre7.5%8/1
It'S Banksy6.9%6/1
War Profiteer6.1%10/1
Always Honest5.7%15/1
Portadown Lad4.1%20/1
Midas' Banker0.4%30/1
Race 11 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherViolent Act: model 19.3% vs market 19.5% (-0.2 points)Violent Act-0.2Tampa Storm: model 16.1% vs market 15.6% (+0.5 points)Tampa Storm+0.5Speightful Storm: model 13.8% vs market 11.1% (+2.6 points)Speightful Storm+2.6Hurricane Kaz: model 12.0% vs market 8.7% (+3.4 points)Hurricane Kaz+3.4Let'S Get Weird: model 8.0% vs market 7.1% (+0.9 points)Let'S Get Weird+0.9Nordic Fyre: model 7.5% vs market 8.7% (-1.2 points)Nordic Fyre-1.2It'S Banksy: model 6.9% vs market 11.1% (-4.2 points)It'S Banksy-4.2War Profiteer: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)War Profiteer-1.0Always Honest: model 5.7% vs market 4.9% (+0.8 points)Always Honest+0.8Portadown Lad: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.4 points)Portadown Lad+0.4Midas' Banker: model 0.4% vs market 2.5% (-2.1 points)Midas' Banker-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Violent Act19.3%19.5%-0.2
Tampa Storm16.1%15.6%+0.5
Speightful Storm13.8%11.1%+2.6
Hurricane Kaz12.0%8.7%+3.4
Let'S Get Weird8.0%7.1%+0.9
Nordic Fyre7.5%8.7%-1.2
It'S Banksy6.9%11.1%-4.2
War Profiteer6.1%7.1%-1.0
Always Honest5.7%4.9%+0.8
Portadown Lad4.1%3.7%+0.4
Midas' Banker0.4%2.5%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 11139108
🎯 Longshots: 1941168573102
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 177 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-29.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 31.6% from 177 racesOur top pick31.6%Expert consensus pick: 27.1% from 177 racesExpert consensus pick27.1%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.6%177
Expert consensus pick27.1%177
 
Race 1  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:9Broadcast (7/5)
Place:1Port In A Storm (5/1)
Show:6Mr Webster (6/1)
Other contenders:4This Time For Sure (8/1), 2Mapped (10/1), 7Road To Ravello (8/1)
Rest of field:8Obliterated (10/1), 3Stars On The Water (10/1), 5Loyal Prince (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 916472
🎯 Longshots: 946712835
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Fireinhereyes (4/1)
Place:2Lady Azul (8/1)
Show:3Plenty Of Mischief (9/2)
Other contenders:5Outlaw Annie (7/2), 8Bikini Changer (5/1), 7Gold Control (6/1)
Rest of field:4Jadugar (6/1), 6Mia's Warrior (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153287
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:5Roman Grace (7/2)
Place:1Army Gal (4/1)
Show:8Interstatelovesong (5/2)
Other contenders:4L'eclair (9/2), 3Next On Stage (6/1), 7Some Ride (8/1)
Rest of field:2Collective Bargain (12/1), 6Mermaid Magic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851437
🎯 Longshots: 87541632
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:3Boomington (7/2)
Place:4Athena's Fury (4/1)
Show:1Power Of Women (5/1)
Other contenders:2Morning Prayer (9/2), 8Unlock The Value (4/1), 6She's Our Tiz (6/1)
Rest of field:5Miami Style (20/1), 7Annagenda (15/1), 9Velocity Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 348216
🎯 Longshots: 384216759
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:8Party In The Army (2/1)
Place:4Onebigbeautfulbill (3/1)
Show:3Vekinda (5/1)
Other contenders:1What's Up Bro (6/1), 6Elysian Meadows (10/1), 7B Thedonald (6/1)
Rest of field:5Truman's Commander (10/1), 2Master Freud (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 843176
🎯 Longshots: 86435271
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Borago (7/2)
Place:11Hyperborean Spirit (4/1)
Show:9Arinato (5/1)
Other contenders:1Lee's Onthe Loose (6/1), 4Miracle Michael (8/1), 5A Lot Of Gold (15/1), 2Gaynor (10/1)
Rest of field:10Themistocles (15/1), 8God Of Fire (10/1), 6Unspoken (12/1), 7Mend The Way (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3119142
🎯 Longshots: 3941181265107
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #11, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:1Iron Palace (5/2)
Place:10Criteria (6/1)
Show:8Cuando (10/1)
Other contenders:9Outrunner (5/1), 2No Pressure (6/1), 7After Taxes (10/1)
Rest of field:4Repentless (12/1), 5Commerce (10/1), 3Lyneham (8/1), 6Marchon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1109287
🎯 Longshots: 18471095326
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:3Bold Fortune (2/1)
Place:7Red State (3/1)
Show:9Khozeiress (6/1)
Other contenders:5Mischief Mania (10/1), 10Uncle Jim (8/1), 4Sully (12/1), 8Share The Ludt (12/1)
Rest of field:2Go Irish (15/1), 11Schlomo (20/1), 6He's Got This (20/1), 1Toscano (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3791054
🎯 Longshots: 3475102118916
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 3/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Program Trading (2/1)
Place:6Ole Crazy Bone (3/1)
Show:2Tiz Dashing (7/2)
Other contenders:7Cugino (6/1), 3Carson's Run (10/1), 5West Hollywood (15/1)
Rest of field:9A Bourbon For Toby (15/1), 8Carcano (15/1), 4Thundering (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162735
🎯 Longshots: 396187254
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:3Extravaganzoo (3/1)
Place:9Golden Maiden (5/1)
Show:10Forecheck (7/2)
Other contenders:2Belmont Street (6/1), 8Luck Penny (5/1), 1Saint Dymphna (12/1)
Rest of field:6Gold Fashioned (10/1), 7Under The Moon (12/1), 4Boomesherang (20/1), 5Blessednotbothered (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3109826
🎯 Longshots: 31092761845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Violent Act (3/1)
Place:9Hurricane Kaz (8/1)
Show:11Tampa Storm (4/1)
Other contenders:3Speightful Storm (6/1), 8Nordic Fyre (8/1), 6War Profiteer (10/1), 7Let's Get Weird (10/1)
Rest of field:10It's Banksy (6/1), 4Always Honest (15/1), 5Portadown Lad (20/1), 2Midas' Banker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11131098
🎯 Longshots: 1941168573102
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #9 over #1 ($1 straight; box #9-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #4, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #9 ($1 straight; box #3-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #11, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #10 ($1 straight; box #1-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #8, #10, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #3 over #10 ($1 straight; box #3-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #10, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 11AI Exacta: #11 over #1 ($1 straight; box #11-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #11, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
74Repentless12/1—8.2%+5.7%0.12%$0.12
115Portadown Lad ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-30.7%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.1%$0.12
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:9Broadcast (7/5)
Place:4This Time For Sure (8/1)
Show:6Mr Webster (6/1)
Other contenders:1Port In A Storm (5/1), 2Mapped (10/1), 8Obliterated (10/1)
Rest of field:7Road To Ravello (8/1), 5Loyal Prince (15/1), 3Stars On The Water (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 916427
🎯 Longshots: 946712835
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Fireinhereyes (4/1)
Place:3Plenty Of Mischief (9/2)
Show:5Outlaw Annie (7/2)
Other contenders:7Gold Control (6/1), 2Lady Azul (8/1), 4Jadugar (6/1)
Rest of field:8Bikini Changer (5/1), 6Mia's Warrior (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135784
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:8Interstatelovesong (5/2)
Place:5Roman Grace (7/2)
Show:1Army Gal (4/1)
Other contenders:7Some Ride (8/1), 3Next On Stage (6/1), 4L'eclair (9/2)
Rest of field:2Collective Bargain (12/1), 6Mermaid Magic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851437
🎯 Longshots: 87541632
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:3Boomington (7/2)
Place:4Athena's Fury (4/1)
Show:1Power Of Women (5/1)
Other contenders:8Unlock The Value (4/1), 2Morning Prayer (9/2), 6She's Our Tiz (6/1)
Rest of field:7Annagenda (15/1), 5Miami Style (20/1), 9Velocity Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 348216
🎯 Longshots: 384216759
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:8Party In The Army (2/1)
Place:4Onebigbeautfulbill (3/1)
Show:6Elysian Meadows (10/1)
Other contenders:3Vekinda (5/1), 1What's Up Bro (6/1), 7B Thedonald (6/1)
Rest of field:5Truman's Commander (10/1), 2Master Freud (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 843176
🎯 Longshots: 86435271
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Borago (7/2)
Place:9Arinato (5/1)
Show:4Miracle Michael (8/1)
Other contenders:11Hyperborean Spirit (4/1), 1Lee's Onthe Loose (6/1), 2Gaynor (10/1), 8God Of Fire (10/1)
Rest of field:10Themistocles (15/1), 6Unspoken (12/1), 5A Lot Of Gold (15/1), 7Mend The Way (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3119142
🎯 Longshots: 3941181265107
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:1Iron Palace (5/2)
Place:4Repentless (12/1)
Show:10Criteria (6/1)
Other contenders:2No Pressure (6/1), 9Outrunner (5/1), 8Cuando (10/1)
Rest of field:7After Taxes (10/1), 3Lyneham (8/1), 5Commerce (10/1), 6Marchon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1910248
🎯 Longshots: 18471095326
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:3Bold Fortune (2/1)
Place:7Red State (3/1)
Show:4Sully (12/1)
Other contenders:9Khozeiress (6/1), 8Share The Ludt (12/1), 5Mischief Mania (10/1), 10Uncle Jim (8/1)
Rest of field:2Go Irish (15/1), 11Schlomo (20/1), 1Toscano (30/1), 6He's Got This (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3794105
🎯 Longshots: 3475102118916
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 3/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Program Trading (2/1)
Place:2Tiz Dashing (7/2)
Show:3Carson's Run (10/1)
Other contenders:6Ole Crazy Bone (3/1), 7Cugino (6/1), 9A Bourbon For Toby (15/1)
Rest of field:5West Hollywood (15/1), 4Thundering (20/1), 8Carcano (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126739
🎯 Longshots: 396187254
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:9Golden Maiden (5/1)
Place:3Extravaganzoo (3/1)
Show:10Forecheck (7/2)
Other contenders:8Luck Penny (5/1), 2Belmont Street (6/1), 6Gold Fashioned (10/1)
Rest of field:7Under The Moon (12/1), 1Saint Dymphna (12/1), 4Boomesherang (20/1), 5Blessednotbothered (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3910826
🎯 Longshots: 31092761845
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #3, #10, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Violent Act (3/1)
Place:9Hurricane Kaz (8/1)
Show:3Speightful Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:6War Profiteer (10/1), 11Tampa Storm (4/1), 8Nordic Fyre (8/1), 7Let's Get Weird (10/1)
Rest of field:10It's Banksy (6/1), 4Always Honest (15/1), 5Portadown Lad (20/1), 2Midas' Banker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11139108
🎯 Longshots: 1941168573102
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:9Broadcast (7/5)
Place:6Mr Webster (6/1)
Show:2Mapped (10/1)
Other contenders:4This Time For Sure (8/1), 1Port In A Storm (5/1), 7Road To Ravello (8/1)
Rest of field:3Stars On The Water (10/1), 8Obliterated (10/1), 5Loyal Prince (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 961427
🎯 Longshots: 946712835
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Fireinhereyes (4/1)
Place:2Lady Azul (8/1)
Show:3Plenty Of Mischief (9/2)
Other contenders:5Outlaw Annie (7/2), 8Bikini Changer (5/1), 7Gold Control (6/1)
Rest of field:4Jadugar (6/1), 6Mia's Warrior (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153287
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:8Interstatelovesong (5/2)
Place:5Roman Grace (7/2)
Show:1Army Gal (4/1)
Other contenders:4L'eclair (9/2), 3Next On Stage (6/1), 7Some Ride (8/1)
Rest of field:2Collective Bargain (12/1), 6Mermaid Magic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851437
🎯 Longshots: 87541632
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:4Athena's Fury (4/1)
Place:3Boomington (7/2)
Show:1Power Of Women (5/1)
Other contenders:2Morning Prayer (9/2), 8Unlock The Value (4/1), 6She's Our Tiz (6/1)
Rest of field:5Miami Style (20/1), 7Annagenda (15/1), 9Velocity Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 348216
🎯 Longshots: 384216759
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:8Party In The Army (2/1)
Place:4Onebigbeautfulbill (3/1)
Show:3Vekinda (5/1)
Other contenders:7B Thedonald (6/1), 1What's Up Bro (6/1), 6Elysian Meadows (10/1)
Rest of field:5Truman's Commander (10/1), 2Master Freud (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 843716
🎯 Longshots: 86435271
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Borago (7/2)
Place:11Hyperborean Spirit (4/1)
Show:4Miracle Michael (8/1)
Other contenders:1Lee's Onthe Loose (6/1), 9Arinato (5/1), 5A Lot Of Gold (15/1), 2Gaynor (10/1)
Rest of field:10Themistocles (15/1), 8God Of Fire (10/1), 7Mend The Way (15/1), 6Unspoken (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3119142
🎯 Longshots: 3941181265107
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #11, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $105,000
Win:1Iron Palace (5/2)
Place:8Cuando (10/1)
Show:10Criteria (6/1)
Other contenders:2No Pressure (6/1), 9Outrunner (5/1), 4Repentless (12/1)
Rest of field:7After Taxes (10/1), 5Commerce (10/1), 3Lyneham (8/1), 6Marchon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1910287
🎯 Longshots: 18471095326
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:3Bold Fortune (2/1)
Place:7Red State (3/1)
Show:9Khozeiress (6/1)
Other contenders:4Sully (12/1), 10Uncle Jim (8/1), 8Share The Ludt (12/1), 6He's Got This (20/1)
Rest of field:5Mischief Mania (10/1), 1Toscano (30/1), 2Go Irish (15/1), 11Schlomo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3791054
🎯 Longshots: 3475102118916
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 3/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Program Trading (2/1)
Place:3Carson's Run (10/1)
Show:2Tiz Dashing (7/2)
Other contenders:6Ole Crazy Bone (3/1), 7Cugino (6/1), 5West Hollywood (15/1)
Rest of field:9A Bourbon For Toby (15/1), 4Thundering (20/1), 8Carcano (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162735
🎯 Longshots: 396187254
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:3Extravaganzoo (3/1)
Place:10Forecheck (7/2)
Show:2Belmont Street (6/1)
Other contenders:9Golden Maiden (5/1), 8Luck Penny (5/1), 6Gold Fashioned (10/1)
Rest of field:7Under The Moon (12/1), 1Saint Dymphna (12/1), 4Boomesherang (20/1), 5Blessednotbothered (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3109286
🎯 Longshots: 31092761845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Violent Act (3/1)
Place:11Tampa Storm (4/1)
Show:3Speightful Storm (6/1)
Other contenders:7Let's Get Weird (10/1), 9Hurricane Kaz (8/1), 4Always Honest (15/1), 8Nordic Fyre (8/1)
Rest of field:6War Profiteer (10/1), 10It's Banksy (6/1), 5Portadown Lad (20/1), 2Midas' Banker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11131098
🎯 Longshots: 1941168573102
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #9,#1,#6 (61%) / R2: #1,#2,#3 (61%) / R3: #4,#8,#1 (59%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#8,#1 (59%) / R4: #3,#8,#4 (55%) / R5: #8,#3,#7 (65%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#8,#4 (55%) / R5: #8,#3,#7 (65%) / R6: #3,#11,#1 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #3,#7,#9 (62%) / R9: #6,#1,#7 (57%) / R10: #3,#10,#9 (65%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #9,#1,#6 (61%) / R2: #1,#2,#3 (61%) / R3: #4,#8,#1 (59%) / R4: #3,#8,#4 (55%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#2,#3 (61%) / R3: #4,#8,#1 (59%) / R4: #3,#8,#4 (55%) / R5: #8,#3,#7 (65%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A BOURBON FOR TOBYA LOT OF GOLDAFTER TAXESALWAYS HONESTANNAGENDA
ARMY GALATHENA'S FURYB THEDONALDBELMONT STREETBIKINI CHANGER
BOLD FORTUNEBOOMESHERANGBOOMINGTONBORAGOBROADCAST
CARSON'S RUNCOLLECTIVE BARGAINCOMMERCECRITERIACUANDO
ELYSIAN MEADOWSEXTRAVAGANZOOFIREINHEREYESFORECHECKGAYNOR
GOD OF FIREGOLD CONTROLGOLD FASHIONEDGOLDEN MAIDENHE'S GOT THIS
HYPERBOREAN SPIRITINTERSTATELOVESONGIRON PALACEIT'S BANKSYJADUGAR
L'ECLAIRLADY AZULLEE'S ONTHE LOOSELET'S GET WEIRDLOYAL PRINCE
LYNEHAMMAPPEDMARCHONMASTER FREUDMEND THE WAY
MIA'S WARRIORMIAMI STYLEMIDAS' BANKERMIRACLE MICHAELMISCHIEF MANIA
MR WEBSTERNEXT ON STAGENO PRESSURENORDIC FYREOBLITERATED
ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILLOUTLAW ANNIEOUTRUNNERPARTY IN THE ARMYPLENTY OF MISCHIEF
PORTADOWN LADPOWER OF WOMENPROGRAM TRADINGRED STATEREPENTLESS
ROMAN GRACESAINT DYMPHNASCHLOMOSHARE THE LUDTSHE'S OUR TIZ
SPEIGHTFUL STORMSTARS ON THE WATERSULLYTAMPA STORMTHEMISTOCLES
THUNDERINGTIZ DASHINGTOSCANOTRUMAN'S COMMANDERUNCLE JIM
UNLOCK THE VALUEUNSPOKENVEKINDAVELOCITY GIRLVIOLENT ACT
WEST HOLLYWOODWHAT'S UP BRO

 


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