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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Santa Anita Park, October 31, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $29,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2See Through It (2/1)
Place:3Hard To Figure (7/2)
Show:5Sendit Mo (3/1)
Other contenders:6Ima Track Star (6/1), 4B Grayson (8/1), 8Hey Brother (10/1)
Rest of field:1Zombo Bombo (15/1), 7Soi Ngern (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 235648
🎯 Longshots: 25831476
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6D'yquem (7/5)
Place:3Royal Pearl (2/1)
Show:5Rosaura (7/2)
Other contenders:4Nineteen Forty Two (6/1), 2Endless Smoke (12/1)
Rest of field:1Lucille B (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Early Encore (2/5)
Place:5Golden Club (5/1)
Show:2Angel's Ember (6/1)
Other contenders:3Empire Of Ash (15/1), 7Cupid Cowboy (20/1), 8Fumano's Fire (20/1)
Rest of field:4The Moe Show (20/1), 6Believer (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152378
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Dr. Filkins (7/5)
Place:7Chaotic Neutral (5/1)
Show:1Chalky's Gold (10/1)
Other contenders:9Low Key Cool (7/2), 8One Last Strike (6/1), 10Duke Of Orleans (12/1)
Rest of field:2Bello Rosso (20/1), 6Wasting Aces (20/1), 3Mordred's Revenge (30/1), 4Gato Volador (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5798110
🎯 Longshots: 51091827643
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10Dirty Words (2/1)
Place:2Doo Wop Don (4/1)
Show:4Midnite Musket (4/1)
Other contenders:5Tapalo (10/1), 3Check's On The Way (6/1), 9Alpine Thunder (12/1), 7Wizard Of Westwood (15/1)
Rest of field:1Kahuna Magic (30/1), 12Come Out Fighting (20/1), 6Arkadelphia (30/1), 11Ya'll Come (30/1), 8Joey Brackets (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1024359
🎯 Longshots: 105241273916118
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10Doing Time (2/1)
Place:5Milken Cookies (5/2)
Show:1Gray Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:7Papa Santos (8/1), 2Shapoval (8/1), 3Hammerbarn (12/1)
Rest of field:6Joe Vittori (20/1), 9Henie In Black (15/1), 4Desert Hawk (30/1), 8Wicked Spud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1051723
🎯 Longshots: 10527619348
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Swift Appeal (5/2)
Place:10Calvin Graham (5/1)
Show:9High Hull Gill (8/1)
Other contenders:1Freddie Blassie (6/1), 4One Punch Wonder (8/1), 11M C Dreams (6/1), 2Beat The Man (10/1)
Rest of field:5Trojans Forever (12/1), 7So Cal Notte (15/1), 8Ryne Sandberg (20/1), 6Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31091114
🎯 Longshots: 3101119425786
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3May Day Ready (5/1)
Place:5Bojaca Blessing (5/1)
Show:1Miss Nightfall (3/1)
Other contenders:7Ambaya (4/1), 10Baltic Fire (8/1), 4Little Jamie (10/1), 6Raw Ability (12/1)
Rest of field:9Mo' Em Down (15/1), 11Lady In Paris (15/1), 2As Catch Can (20/1), 8Princesa Moche (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3157104
🎯 Longshots: 5611074391182
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:8Ember Royale (6/5)
Place:7Free Closer (7/2)
Show:6Daytona Diamond (9/2)
Other contenders:5Manee (10/1), 2Beautiful Dawn (15/1), 11Palo Alto Baby (15/1), 4Ms Grainger Danger (30/1)
Rest of field:9Stay Bossy (30/1), 1You Trust Me (30/1), 3Lihue Princess (30/1), 10Tashie (30/1), 12Strident Miss (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8765211
🎯 Longshots: 876521191341012
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Magnify (3/1)
Place:5Prince Dolce (4/1)
Show:11Poor Connection (9/2)
Other contenders:3Stylishlyacclaimed (6/1), 7Sir Rocket (6/1), 10None Above The Law (8/1), 4In The Tank (10/1)
Rest of field:9Cali Cat (20/1), 2Uncle Happy (30/1), 6Tribal (20/1), 8Midnight Mammoth (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 15113710
🎯 Longshots: 5131147106928
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:3Hard To Figure (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:2See Through It (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -44%
Show:5Sendit Mo (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -45%
Other contenders:6Ima Track Star (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Zombo Bombo (15/1) 9% · fair 21-2 overlay +43%, 4B Grayson (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:8Hey Brother (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 7Soi Ngern (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hard To Figure — 22.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Hard To Figure22.4% ◀See Through It — 21.9% win probability, morning line 2/1See Through It21.9%Sendit Mo — 15.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Sendit Mo15.6%Ima Track Star — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Ima Track Star11.7%Zombo Bombo — 8.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Zombo Bombo8.7%B Grayson — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1B Grayson8.0%Hey Brother — 7.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Hey Brother7.9%Soi Ngern — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Soi Ngern3.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hard To Figure22.4%3.5/1
See Through It21.9%2/1
Sendit Mo15.6%3/1
Ima Track Star11.7%6/1
Zombo Bombo8.7%15/1
B Grayson8.0%8/1
Hey Brother7.9%10/1
Soi Ngern3.8%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHard To Figure: model 22.4% vs market 17.4% (+5.0 points)Hard To Figure+5.0See Through It: model 21.9% vs market 26.1% (-4.2 points)See Through It-4.2Sendit Mo: model 15.6% vs market 19.6% (-4.0 points)Sendit Mo-4.0Ima Track Star: model 11.7% vs market 11.2% (+0.5 points)Ima Track Star+0.5Zombo Bombo: model 8.7% vs market 4.9% (+3.8 points)Zombo Bombo+3.8B Grayson: model 8.0% vs market 8.7% (-0.8 points)B Grayson-0.8Hey Brother: model 7.9% vs market 7.1% (+0.8 points)Hey Brother+0.8Soi Ngern: model 3.8% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Soi Ngern-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hard To Figure22.4%17.4%+5.0
See Through It21.9%26.1%-4.2
Sendit Mo15.6%19.6%-4.0
Ima Track Star11.7%11.2%+0.5
Zombo Bombo8.7%4.9%+3.8
B Grayson8.0%8.7%-0.8
Hey Brother7.9%7.1%+0.8
Soi Ngern3.8%4.9%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 235648
🎯 Longshots: 25831476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Royal Pearl (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:6D'yquem (7/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -39%
Show:5Rosaura (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -43%
Other contenders:4Nineteen Forty Two (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 2Endless Smoke (12/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -36%
Rest of field:1Lucille B (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Royal Pearl — 33.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Royal Pearl33.9% ◀D'Yquem — 30.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1D'Yquem30.3%Rosaura — 14.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Rosaura14.0%Nineteen Forty Two — 12.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Nineteen Forty Two12.3%Endless Smoke — 5.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Endless Smoke5.1%Lucille B — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Lucille B4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Royal Pearl33.9%2/1
D'Yquem30.3%1.4/1
Rosaura14.0%3.5/1
Nineteen Forty Two12.3%6/1
Endless Smoke5.1%12/1
Lucille B4.4%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRoyal Pearl: model 33.9% vs market 26.3% (+7.6 points)Royal Pearl+7.6D'Yquem: model 30.3% vs market 32.8% (-2.6 points)D'Yquem-2.6Rosaura: model 14.0% vs market 17.5% (-3.5 points)Rosaura-3.5Nineteen Forty Two: model 12.3% vs market 11.3% (+1.1 points)Nineteen Forty Two+1.1Endless Smoke: model 5.1% vs market 6.1% (-1.0 points)Endless Smoke-1.0Lucille B: model 4.4% vs market 6.1% (-1.6 points)Lucille B-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Royal Pearl33.9%26.3%+7.6
D'Yquem30.3%32.8%-2.6
Rosaura14.0%17.5%-3.5
Nineteen Forty Two12.3%11.3%+1.1
Endless Smoke5.1%6.1%-1.0
Lucille B4.4%6.1%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Early Encore (2/5) 50% · fair 1-1 underlay -60%
Place:5Golden Club (5/1) 23% · fair 7-2 overlay +50%
Show:2Angel's Ember (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:3Empire Of Ash (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 7Cupid Cowboy (20/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -36%, 8Fumano's Fire (20/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -58%
Rest of field:6Believer (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 4The Moe Show (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Early Encore — 49.9% win probability, morning line 0.4/1Early Encore49.9% ◀Golden Club — 23.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Golden Club23.0%Angel'S Ember — 12.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Angel'S Ember12.0%Empire Of Ash — 6.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Empire Of Ash6.0%Cupid Cowboy — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Cupid Cowboy3.1%Fumano'S Fire — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Fumano'S Fire2.1%Believer — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Believer1.9%The Moe Show — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1The Moe Show1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Early Encore49.9%0.4/1
Golden Club23.0%5/1
Angel'S Ember12.0%6/1
Empire Of Ash6.0%15/1
Cupid Cowboy3.1%20/1
Fumano'S Fire2.1%20/1
Believer1.9%20/1
The Moe Show1.9%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEarly Encore: model 49.9% vs market 55.9% (-6.0 points)Early Encore-6.0Golden Club: model 23.0% vs market 13.1% (+10.0 points)Golden Club+10.0Angel'S Ember: model 12.0% vs market 11.2% (+0.8 points)Angel'S Ember+0.8Empire Of Ash: model 6.0% vs market 4.9% (+1.1 points)Empire Of Ash+1.1Cupid Cowboy: model 3.1% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Cupid Cowboy-0.6Fumano'S Fire: model 2.1% vs market 3.7% (-1.7 points)Fumano'S Fire-1.7Believer: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Believer-1.8The Moe Show: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)The Moe Show-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Early Encore49.9%55.9%-6.0
Golden Club23.0%13.1%+10.0
Angel'S Ember12.0%11.2%+0.8
Empire Of Ash6.0%4.9%+1.1
Cupid Cowboy3.1%3.7%-0.6
Fumano'S Fire2.1%3.7%-1.7
Believer1.9%3.7%-1.8
The Moe Show1.9%3.7%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 152378
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Dr. Filkins (7/5) 44% · fair 3-2
Place:7Chaotic Neutral (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Show:1Chalky's Gold (10/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +59%
Other contenders:8One Last Strike (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 9Low Key Cool (7/2) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -77%, 10Duke Of Orleans (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:2Bello Rosso (20/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -26%, 6Wasting Aces (20/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -57%, 3Mordred's Revenge (30/1) 1% · fair 67-1 underlay -55%, 4Gato Volador (30/1) 1% · fair 205-2 underlay -71%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dr. Filkins — 43.7% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Dr. Filkins43.7% ◀Chaotic Neutral — 14.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Chaotic Neutral14.1%Chalky'S Gold — 13.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Chalky'S Gold13.8%One Last Strike — 10.3% win probability, morning line 6/1One Last Strike10.3%Low Key Cool — 6.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Low Key Cool6.1%Duke Of Orleans — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Duke Of Orleans4.0%Bello Rosso — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Bello Rosso3.6%Wasting Aces — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Wasting Aces2.1%Mordred'S Revenge — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Mordred'S Revenge1.5%Gato Volador — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Gato Volador1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dr. Filkins43.7%1.4/1
Chaotic Neutral14.1%5/1
Chalky'S Gold13.8%10/1
One Last Strike10.3%6/1
Low Key Cool6.1%3.5/1
Duke Of Orleans4.0%12/1
Bello Rosso3.6%20/1
Wasting Aces2.1%20/1
Mordred'S Revenge1.5%30/1
Gato Volador1.0%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDr. Filkins: model 43.7% vs market 32.7% (+11.1 points)Dr. Filkins+11.1Chaotic Neutral: model 14.1% vs market 13.1% (+1.0 points)Chaotic Neutral+1.0Chalky'S Gold: model 13.8% vs market 7.1% (+6.6 points)Chalky'S Gold+6.6One Last Strike: model 10.3% vs market 11.2% (-0.9 points)One Last Strike-0.9Low Key Cool: model 6.1% vs market 17.4% (-11.3 points)Low Key Cool-11.3Duke Of Orleans: model 4.0% vs market 6.0% (-2.1 points)Duke Of Orleans-2.1Bello Rosso: model 3.6% vs market 3.7% (-0.2 points)Bello Rosso-0.2Wasting Aces: model 2.1% vs market 3.7% (-1.6 points)Wasting Aces-1.6Mordred'S Revenge: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.1 points)Mordred'S Revenge-1.1Gato Volador: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.6 points)Gato Volador-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dr. Filkins43.7%32.7%+11.1
Chaotic Neutral14.1%13.1%+1.0
Chalky'S Gold13.8%7.1%+6.6
One Last Strike10.3%11.2%-0.9
Low Key Cool6.1%17.4%-11.3
Duke Of Orleans4.0%6.0%-2.1
Bello Rosso3.6%3.7%-0.2
Wasting Aces2.1%3.7%-1.6
Mordred'S Revenge1.5%2.5%-1.1
Gato Volador1.0%2.5%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 5798110
🎯 Longshots: 51091827643
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:2Doo Wop Don (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +38%
Place:10Dirty Words (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -44%
Show:5Tapalo (10/1) 12% · fair 7-1 overlay +41%
Other contenders:4Midnite Musket (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -46%, 3Check's On The Way (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 9Alpine Thunder (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 7Wizard Of Westwood (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Rest of field:12Come Out Fighting (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41%, 1Kahuna Magic (30/1) 3% · fair 36-1, 11Ya'll Come (30/1) 1% · fair 133-2 underlay -55%, 6Arkadelphia (30/1) 1% · fair 78-1 underlay -61%, 8Joey Brackets (30/1) 1% · fair 377-2 underlay -84%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Doo Wop Don — 25.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Doo Wop Don25.7% ◀Dirty Words — 21.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Dirty Words21.9%Tapalo — 12.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Tapalo12.3%Midnite Musket — 12.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Midnite Musket12.0%Check'S On The Way — 7.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Check'S On The Way7.0%Alpine Thunder — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Alpine Thunder6.5%Wizard Of Westwood — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Wizard Of Westwood5.7%Come Out Fighting — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Come Out Fighting2.9%Kahuna Magic — 2.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Kahuna Magic2.7%Ya'Ll Come — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Ya'Ll Come1.5%Arkadelphia — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Arkadelphia1.3%Joey Brackets — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Joey Brackets0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Doo Wop Don25.7%4/1
Dirty Words21.9%2/1
Tapalo12.3%10/1
Midnite Musket12.0%4/1
Check'S On The Way7.0%6/1
Alpine Thunder6.5%12/1
Wizard Of Westwood5.7%15/1
Come Out Fighting2.9%20/1
Kahuna Magic2.7%30/1
Ya'Ll Come1.5%30/1
Arkadelphia1.3%30/1
Joey Brackets0.5%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDoo Wop Don: model 25.7% vs market 15.6% (+10.1 points)Doo Wop Don+10.1Dirty Words: model 21.9% vs market 26.0% (-4.1 points)Dirty Words-4.1Tapalo: model 12.3% vs market 7.1% (+5.3 points)Tapalo+5.3Midnite Musket: model 12.0% vs market 15.6% (-3.6 points)Midnite Musket-3.6Check'S On The Way: model 7.0% vs market 11.1% (-4.1 points)Check'S On The Way-4.1Alpine Thunder: model 6.5% vs market 6.0% (+0.5 points)Alpine Thunder+0.5Wizard Of Westwood: model 5.7% vs market 4.9% (+0.9 points)Wizard Of Westwood+0.9Come Out Fighting: model 2.9% vs market 3.7% (-0.8 points)Come Out Fighting-0.8Kahuna Magic: model 2.7% vs market 2.5% (+0.2 points)Kahuna Magic+0.2Ya'Ll Come: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Ya'Ll Come-1.0Arkadelphia: model 1.3% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Arkadelphia-1.2Joey Brackets: model 0.5% vs market 2.5% (-2.0 points)Joey Brackets-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Doo Wop Don25.7%15.6%+10.1
Dirty Words21.9%26.0%-4.1
Tapalo12.3%7.1%+5.3
Midnite Musket12.0%15.6%-3.6
Check'S On The Way7.0%11.1%-4.1
Alpine Thunder6.5%6.0%+0.5
Wizard Of Westwood5.7%4.9%+0.9
Come Out Fighting2.9%3.7%-0.8
Kahuna Magic2.7%2.5%+0.2
Ya'Ll Come1.5%2.5%-1.0
Arkadelphia1.3%2.5%-1.2
Joey Brackets0.5%2.5%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 1024359
🎯 Longshots: 105241273916118
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:10Doing Time (2/1) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:5Milken Cookies (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:1Gray Thunder (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Shapoval (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 3Hammerbarn (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 7Papa Santos (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:9Henie In Black (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -47%, 6Joe Vittori (20/1) 2% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%, 4Desert Hawk (30/1) 2% · fair 62-1 underlay -51%, 8Wicked Spud (30/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -65%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Doing Time — 31.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Doing Time31.1% ◀Milken Cookies — 24.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Milken Cookies24.8%Gray Thunder — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Gray Thunder14.6%Shapoval — 7.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Shapoval7.7%Hammerbarn — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Hammerbarn6.9%Papa Santos — 6.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Papa Santos6.2%Henie In Black — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Henie In Black3.4%Joe Vittori — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Joe Vittori2.5%Desert Hawk — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Desert Hawk1.6%Wicked Spud — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Wicked Spud1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Doing Time31.1%2/1
Milken Cookies24.8%2.5/1
Gray Thunder14.6%4.5/1
Shapoval7.7%8/1
Hammerbarn6.9%12/1
Papa Santos6.2%8/1
Henie In Black3.4%15/1
Joe Vittori2.5%20/1
Desert Hawk1.6%30/1
Wicked Spud1.2%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDoing Time: model 31.1% vs market 26.2% (+4.9 points)Doing Time+4.9Milken Cookies: model 24.8% vs market 22.4% (+2.4 points)Milken Cookies+2.4Gray Thunder: model 14.6% vs market 14.3% (+0.4 points)Gray Thunder+0.4Shapoval: model 7.7% vs market 8.7% (-1.1 points)Shapoval-1.1Hammerbarn: model 6.9% vs market 6.0% (+0.9 points)Hammerbarn+0.9Papa Santos: model 6.2% vs market 8.7% (-2.5 points)Papa Santos-2.5Henie In Black: model 3.4% vs market 4.9% (-1.5 points)Henie In Black-1.5Joe Vittori: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.2 points)Joe Vittori-1.2Desert Hawk: model 1.6% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Desert Hawk-0.9Wicked Spud: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Wicked Spud-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Doing Time31.1%26.2%+4.9
Milken Cookies24.8%22.4%+2.4
Gray Thunder14.6%14.3%+0.4
Shapoval7.7%8.7%-1.1
Hammerbarn6.9%6.0%+0.9
Papa Santos6.2%8.7%-2.5
Henie In Black3.4%4.9%-1.5
Joe Vittori2.5%3.7%-1.2
Desert Hawk1.6%2.5%-0.9
Wicked Spud1.2%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 1051273
🎯 Longshots: 10527619348
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Swift Appeal (5/2) 54% · fair 4-5 overlay +198%
Place:9High Hull Gill (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +26%
Show:10Calvin Graham (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -62%
Other contenders:1Freddie Blassie (6/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -70%, 4One Punch Wonder (8/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -66%, 2Beat The Man (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -62%, 5Trojans Forever (12/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -61%
Rest of field:11M C Dreams (6/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -81%, 7So Cal Notte (15/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -58%, 8Ryne Sandberg (20/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -54%, 6Fully Favorable (30/1) 1% · fair 79-1 underlay -62%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Swift Appeal — 54.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Swift Appeal54.4% ◀High Hull Gill — 13.6% win probability, morning line 8/1High Hull Gill13.6%Calvin Graham — 7.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Calvin Graham7.0%Freddie Blassie — 4.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Freddie Blassie4.7%One Punch Wonder — 4.1% win probability, morning line 8/1One Punch Wonder4.1%Beat The Man — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Beat The Man3.7%Trojans Forever — 3.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Trojans Forever3.1%M C Dreams — 3.1% win probability, morning line 6/1M C Dreams3.1%So Cal Notte — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1So Cal Notte2.7%Ryne Sandberg — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Ryne Sandberg2.3%Fully Favorable — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Fully Favorable1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Swift Appeal54.4%2.5/1
High Hull Gill13.6%8/1
Calvin Graham7.0%5/1
Freddie Blassie4.7%6/1
One Punch Wonder4.1%8/1
Beat The Man3.7%10/1
Trojans Forever3.1%12/1
M C Dreams3.1%6/1
So Cal Notte2.7%15/1
Ryne Sandberg2.3%20/1
Fully Favorable1.2%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSwift Appeal: model 54.4% vs market 22.5% (+31.9 points)Swift Appeal+31.9High Hull Gill: model 13.6% vs market 8.7% (+4.8 points)High Hull Gill+4.8Calvin Graham: model 7.0% vs market 13.1% (-6.1 points)Calvin Graham-6.1Freddie Blassie: model 4.7% vs market 11.2% (-6.5 points)Freddie Blassie-6.5One Punch Wonder: model 4.1% vs market 8.7% (-4.7 points)One Punch Wonder-4.7Beat The Man: model 3.7% vs market 7.2% (-3.5 points)Beat The Man-3.5Trojans Forever: model 3.1% vs market 6.1% (-2.9 points)Trojans Forever-2.9M C Dreams: model 3.1% vs market 11.2% (-8.1 points)M C Dreams-8.1So Cal Notte: model 2.7% vs market 4.9% (-2.2 points)So Cal Notte-2.2Ryne Sandberg: model 2.3% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Ryne Sandberg-1.5Fully Favorable: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Fully Favorable-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Swift Appeal54.4%22.5%+31.9
High Hull Gill13.6%8.7%+4.8
Calvin Graham7.0%13.1%-6.1
Freddie Blassie4.7%11.2%-6.5
One Punch Wonder4.1%8.7%-4.7
Beat The Man3.7%7.2%-3.5
Trojans Forever3.1%6.1%-2.9
M C Dreams3.1%11.2%-8.1
So Cal Notte2.7%4.9%-2.2
Ryne Sandberg2.3%3.7%-1.5
Fully Favorable1.2%2.5%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 31091114
🎯 Longshots: 3101119425786
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Bojaca Blessing (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Place:7Ambaya (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%
Show:10Baltic Fire (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:1Miss Nightfall (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -59%, 4Little Jamie (10/1) 12% · fair 15-2 overlay +36%, 3May Day Ready (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%, 6Raw Ability (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:9Mo' Em Down (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 11Lady In Paris (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%, 8Princesa Moche (20/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -45%, 2As Catch Can (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bojaca Blessing — 16.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Bojaca Blessing16.8% ◀Ambaya — 13.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Ambaya13.3%Baltic Fire — 12.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Baltic Fire12.6%Miss Nightfall — 12.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Miss Nightfall12.1%Little Jamie — 11.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Little Jamie11.9%May Day Ready — 10.8% win probability, morning line 5/1May Day Ready10.8%Raw Ability — 8.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Raw Ability8.6%Mo' Em Down — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Mo' Em Down4.8%Lady In Paris — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Lady In Paris3.8%Princesa Moche — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Princesa Moche2.7%As Catch Can — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1As Catch Can2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bojaca Blessing16.8%5/1
Ambaya13.3%4/1
Baltic Fire12.6%8/1
Miss Nightfall12.1%3/1
Little Jamie11.9%10/1
May Day Ready10.8%5/1
Raw Ability8.6%12/1
Mo' Em Down4.8%15/1
Lady In Paris3.8%15/1
Princesa Moche2.7%20/1
As Catch Can2.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBojaca Blessing: model 16.8% vs market 13.0% (+3.8 points)Bojaca Blessing+3.8Ambaya: model 13.3% vs market 15.6% (-2.3 points)Ambaya-2.3Baltic Fire: model 12.6% vs market 8.7% (+3.9 points)Baltic Fire+3.9Miss Nightfall: model 12.1% vs market 19.5% (-7.4 points)Miss Nightfall-7.4Little Jamie: model 11.9% vs market 7.1% (+4.9 points)Little Jamie+4.9May Day Ready: model 10.8% vs market 13.0% (-2.2 points)May Day Ready-2.2Raw Ability: model 8.6% vs market 6.0% (+2.6 points)Raw Ability+2.6Mo' Em Down: model 4.8% vs market 4.9% (-0.1 points)Mo' Em Down-0.1Lady In Paris: model 3.8% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Lady In Paris-1.1Princesa Moche: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Princesa Moche-1.0As Catch Can: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)As Catch Can-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bojaca Blessing16.8%13.0%+3.8
Ambaya13.3%15.6%-2.3
Baltic Fire12.6%8.7%+3.9
Miss Nightfall12.1%19.5%-7.4
Little Jamie11.9%7.1%+4.9
May Day Ready10.8%13.0%-2.2
Raw Ability8.6%6.0%+2.6
Mo' Em Down4.8%4.9%-0.1
Lady In Paris3.8%4.9%-1.1
Princesa Moche2.7%3.7%-1.0
As Catch Can2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 5173104
🎯 Longshots: 5611074391182
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:8Ember Royale (6/5) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -39%
Place:7Free Closer (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Daytona Diamond (9/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5Manee (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 11Palo Alto Baby (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 2Beautiful Dawn (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 9Stay Bossy (30/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -40%
Rest of field:4Ms Grainger Danger (30/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -44%, 3Lihue Princess (30/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -48%, 1You Trust Me (30/1) 2% · fair 59-1 underlay -49%, 10Tashie (30/1) 2% · fair 59-1 underlay -49%, 12Strident Miss (30/1) 1% · fair 159-2 underlay -62%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ember Royale — 33.7% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Ember Royale33.7% ◀Free Closer — 19.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Free Closer19.6%Daytona Diamond — 19.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Daytona Diamond19.1%Manee — 7.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Manee7.3%Palo Alto Baby — 5.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Palo Alto Baby5.3%Beautiful Dawn — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Beautiful Dawn5.0%Stay Bossy — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Stay Bossy1.9%Ms Grainger Danger — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Ms Grainger Danger1.8%Lihue Princess — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Lihue Princess1.7%You Trust Me — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1You Trust Me1.7%Tashie — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Tashie1.7%Strident Miss — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Strident Miss1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ember Royale33.7%1.2/1
Free Closer19.6%3.5/1
Daytona Diamond19.1%4.5/1
Manee7.3%10/1
Palo Alto Baby5.3%15/1
Beautiful Dawn5.0%15/1
Stay Bossy1.9%30/1
Ms Grainger Danger1.8%30/1
Lihue Princess1.7%30/1
You Trust Me1.7%30/1
Tashie1.7%30/1
Strident Miss1.2%30/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEmber Royale: model 33.7% vs market 35.8% (-2.2 points)Ember Royale-2.2Free Closer: model 19.6% vs market 17.5% (+2.1 points)Free Closer+2.1Daytona Diamond: model 19.1% vs market 14.3% (+4.8 points)Daytona Diamond+4.8Manee: model 7.3% vs market 7.2% (+0.1 points)Manee+0.1Palo Alto Baby: model 5.3% vs market 4.9% (+0.4 points)Palo Alto Baby+0.4Beautiful Dawn: model 5.0% vs market 4.9% (+0.1 points)Beautiful Dawn+0.1Stay Bossy: model 1.9% vs market 2.5% (-0.6 points)Stay Bossy-0.6Ms Grainger Danger: model 1.8% vs market 2.5% (-0.7 points)Ms Grainger Danger-0.7Lihue Princess: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Lihue Princess-0.9You Trust Me: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)You Trust Me-0.9Tashie: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Tashie-0.9Strident Miss: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Strident Miss-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ember Royale33.7%35.8%-2.2
Free Closer19.6%17.5%+2.1
Daytona Diamond19.1%14.3%+4.8
Manee7.3%7.2%+0.1
Palo Alto Baby5.3%4.9%+0.4
Beautiful Dawn5.0%4.9%+0.1
Stay Bossy1.9%2.5%-0.6
Ms Grainger Danger1.8%2.5%-0.7
Lihue Princess1.7%2.5%-0.9
You Trust Me1.7%2.5%-0.9
Tashie1.7%2.5%-0.9
Strident Miss1.2%2.5%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 8765112
🎯 Longshots: 876521191341012
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5Prince Dolce (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:11Poor Connection (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:1Magnify (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -47%
Other contenders:3Stylishlyacclaimed (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2, 7Sir Rocket (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%, 10None Above The Law (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%, 4In The Tank (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -52%
Rest of field:9Cali Cat (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 6Tribal (20/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -33%, 2Uncle Happy (30/1) 3% · fair 75-2, 8Midnight Mammoth (30/1) 2% · fair 57-1 underlay -48%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Prince Dolce — 21.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Prince Dolce21.8% ◀Poor Connection — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Poor Connection16.1%Magnify — 15.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Magnify15.0%Stylishlyacclaimed — 13.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Stylishlyacclaimed13.5%Sir Rocket — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Sir Rocket9.8%None Above The Law — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1None Above The Law8.0%In The Tank — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1In The Tank4.6%Cali Cat — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Cali Cat3.6%Tribal — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Tribal3.2%Uncle Happy — 2.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Uncle Happy2.6%Midnight Mammoth — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Midnight Mammoth1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Prince Dolce21.8%4/1
Poor Connection16.1%4.5/1
Magnify15.0%3/1
Stylishlyacclaimed13.5%6/1
Sir Rocket9.8%6/1
None Above The Law8.0%8/1
In The Tank4.6%10/1
Cali Cat3.6%20/1
Tribal3.2%20/1
Uncle Happy2.6%30/1
Midnight Mammoth1.7%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPrince Dolce: model 21.8% vs market 15.6% (+6.2 points)Prince Dolce+6.2Poor Connection: model 16.1% vs market 14.2% (+1.9 points)Poor Connection+1.9Magnify: model 15.0% vs market 19.5% (-4.5 points)Magnify-4.5Stylishlyacclaimed: model 13.5% vs market 11.2% (+2.3 points)Stylishlyacclaimed+2.3Sir Rocket: model 9.8% vs market 11.2% (-1.4 points)Sir Rocket-1.4None Above The Law: model 8.0% vs market 8.7% (-0.7 points)None Above The Law-0.7In The Tank: model 4.6% vs market 7.1% (-2.5 points)In The Tank-2.5Cali Cat: model 3.6% vs market 3.7% (-0.1 points)Cali Cat-0.1Tribal: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.5 points)Tribal-0.5Uncle Happy: model 2.6% vs market 2.5% (+0.1 points)Uncle Happy+0.1Midnight Mammoth: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.8 points)Midnight Mammoth-0.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Prince Dolce21.8%15.6%+6.2
Poor Connection16.1%14.2%+1.9
Magnify15.0%19.5%-4.5
Stylishlyacclaimed13.5%11.2%+2.3
Sir Rocket9.8%11.2%-1.4
None Above The Law8.0%8.7%-0.7
In The Tank4.6%7.1%-2.5
Cali Cat3.6%3.7%-0.1
Tribal3.2%3.7%-0.5
Uncle Happy2.6%2.5%+0.1
Midnight Mammoth1.7%2.5%-0.8
🌧️ Off-track: 51113710
🎯 Longshots: 5131147106928
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Santa Anita Park — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 423 graded races at Santa Anita Park, 2026-04-02 to 2026-10-25.

$0$2$3$5$7Our top pick: $5.48 from 125 racesOur top pick$5.48Morning-line favourite: $4.68 from 152 racesMorning-line favourite$4.68

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.48125
Morning-line favourite$4.68152
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:3Hard To Figure (7/2)
Place:2See Through It (2/1)
Show:5Sendit Mo (3/1)
Other contenders:6Ima Track Star (6/1), 4B Grayson (8/1), 8Hey Brother (10/1)
Rest of field:1Zombo Bombo (15/1), 7Soi Ngern (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253648
🎯 Longshots: 25831476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:6D'yquem (7/5)
Place:3Royal Pearl (2/1)
Show:5Rosaura (7/2)
Other contenders:4Nineteen Forty Two (6/1), 1Lucille B (12/1)
Rest of field:2Endless Smoke (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635412
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Early Encore (2/5)
Place:5Golden Club (5/1)
Show:2Angel's Ember (6/1)
Other contenders:3Empire Of Ash (15/1), 7Cupid Cowboy (20/1), 8Fumano's Fire (20/1)
Rest of field:4The Moe Show (20/1), 6Believer (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152378
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Dr. Filkins (7/5)
Place:7Chaotic Neutral (5/1)
Show:9Low Key Cool (7/2)
Other contenders:1Chalky's Gold (10/1), 10Duke Of Orleans (12/1), 8One Last Strike (6/1)
Rest of field:2Bello Rosso (20/1), 6Wasting Aces (20/1), 3Mordred's Revenge (30/1), 4Gato Volador (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5978110
🎯 Longshots: 51091827643
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:6Arkadelphia (30/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Doo Wop Don (4/1)
Show:10Dirty Words (2/1)
Other contenders:4Midnite Musket (4/1), 5Tapalo (10/1), 3Check's On The Way (6/1), 7Wizard Of Westwood (15/1)
Rest of field:12Come Out Fighting (20/1), 9Alpine Thunder (12/1), 1Kahuna Magic (30/1), 11Ya'll Come (30/1), 8Joey Brackets (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1024356
🎯 Longshots: 105241273916118
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #10, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Milken Cookies (5/2)
Place:10Doing Time (2/1)
Show:2Shapoval (8/1)
Other contenders:1Gray Thunder (9/2), 3Hammerbarn (12/1), 7Papa Santos (8/1)
Rest of field:6Joe Vittori (20/1), 9Henie In Black (15/1), 4Desert Hawk (30/1), 8Wicked Spud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1051273
🎯 Longshots: 10527619348
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Swift Appeal (5/2)
Place:9High Hull Gill (8/1)
Show:10Calvin Graham (5/1)
Other contenders:1Freddie Blassie (6/1), 6Fully Favorable (30/1), 11M C Dreams (6/1), 4One Punch Wonder (8/1)
Rest of field:2Beat The Man (10/1), 5Trojans Forever (12/1), 7So Cal Notte (15/1), 8Ryne Sandberg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31091114
🎯 Longshots: 3101119425786
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:3May Day Ready (5/1)
Place:5Bojaca Blessing (5/1)
Show:7Ambaya (4/1)
Other contenders:10Baltic Fire (8/1), 1Miss Nightfall (3/1), 4Little Jamie (10/1), 9Mo' Em Down (15/1)
Rest of field:6Raw Ability (12/1), 2As Catch Can (20/1), 8Princesa Moche (20/1), 11Lady In Paris (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1735104
🎯 Longshots: 5611074391182
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:8Ember Royale (6/5)
Place:7Free Closer (7/2)
Show:6Daytona Diamond (9/2)
Other contenders:2Beautiful Dawn (15/1), 11Palo Alto Baby (15/1), 5Manee (10/1), 4Ms Grainger Danger (30/1)
Rest of field:3Lihue Princess (30/1), 9Stay Bossy (30/1), 10Tashie (30/1), 1You Trust Me (30/1), 12Strident Miss (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8765211
🎯 Longshots: 876521191341012
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Magnify (3/1)
Place:5Prince Dolce (4/1)
Show:11Poor Connection (9/2)
Other contenders:3Stylishlyacclaimed (6/1), 7Sir Rocket (6/1), 10None Above The Law (8/1), 4In The Tank (10/1)
Rest of field:2Uncle Happy (30/1), 9Cali Cat (20/1), 8Midnight Mammoth (30/1), 6Tribal (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 15113710
🎯 Longshots: 5131147106928
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #9 ($1 straight; box #5-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #10 over #2 ($1 straight; box #10-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #10, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #10 over #5 ($1 straight; box #10-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #10 ($1 straight; box #3-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #9, #10, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #10, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #6, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #5, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.42 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
92Beautiful Dawn15/1—7.1%+13.2%0.22%$0.22
33Empire Of Ash15/1—6.5%+4.5%0.08%$0.08
43Mordred'S Revenge ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-18.9%0.00%$0.00
91You Trust Me ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-20.3%0.00%$0.00
42Bello Rosso ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.6%+-24.7%0.00%$0.00
51Kahuna Magic ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.4%+-26.0%0.00%$0.00
99Stay Bossy ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.3%+-29.0%0.00%$0.00
94Ms Grainger Danger ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-32.5%0.00%$0.00
511Ya'Ll Come ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.1%+-33.4%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 9 plays:0.3%$0.30
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:5Sendit Mo (3/1)
Place:3Hard To Figure (7/2)
Show:8Hey Brother (10/1)
Other contenders:2See Through It (2/1), 6Ima Track Star (6/1), 4B Grayson (8/1)
Rest of field:1Zombo Bombo (15/1), 7Soi Ngern (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 532684
🎯 Longshots: 25831476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:6D'yquem (7/5)
Place:3Royal Pearl (2/1)
Show:5Rosaura (7/2)
Other contenders:4Nineteen Forty Two (6/1), 1Lucille B (12/1)
Rest of field:2Endless Smoke (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635412
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Early Encore (2/5)
Place:2Angel's Ember (6/1)
Show:5Golden Club (5/1)
Other contenders:3Empire Of Ash (15/1), 6Believer (20/1), 4The Moe Show (20/1)
Rest of field:8Fumano's Fire (20/1), 7Cupid Cowboy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152364
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Dr. Filkins (7/5)
Place:8One Last Strike (6/1)
Show:9Low Key Cool (7/2)
Other contenders:1Chalky's Gold (10/1), 7Chaotic Neutral (5/1), 10Duke Of Orleans (12/1)
Rest of field:2Bello Rosso (20/1), 3Mordred's Revenge (30/1), 6Wasting Aces (20/1), 4Gato Volador (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5978110
🎯 Longshots: 51091827643
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:2Doo Wop Don (4/1)
Place:10Dirty Words (2/1)
Show:4Midnite Musket (4/1)
Other contenders:3Check's On The Way (6/1), 5Tapalo (10/1), 12Come Out Fighting (20/1), 6Arkadelphia (30/1)
Rest of field:9Alpine Thunder (12/1), 7Wizard Of Westwood (15/1), 11Ya'll Come (30/1), 1Kahuna Magic (30/1), 8Joey Brackets (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1024359
🎯 Longshots: 105241273916118
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:10Doing Time (2/1)
Place:7Papa Santos (8/1)
Show:5Milken Cookies (5/2)
Other contenders:1Gray Thunder (9/2), 2Shapoval (8/1), 3Hammerbarn (12/1)
Rest of field:9Henie In Black (15/1), 6Joe Vittori (20/1), 4Desert Hawk (30/1), 8Wicked Spud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1051723
🎯 Longshots: 10527619348
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Swift Appeal (5/2)
Place:10Calvin Graham (5/1)
Show:9High Hull Gill (8/1)
Other contenders:1Freddie Blassie (6/1), 2Beat The Man (10/1), 11M C Dreams (6/1), 4One Punch Wonder (8/1)
Rest of field:5Trojans Forever (12/1), 7So Cal Notte (15/1), 8Ryne Sandberg (20/1), 6Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31019114
🎯 Longshots: 3101119425786
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:1Miss Nightfall (3/1)
Place:10Baltic Fire (8/1)
Show:5Bojaca Blessing (5/1)
Other contenders:7Ambaya (4/1), 4Little Jamie (10/1), 3May Day Ready (5/1), 6Raw Ability (12/1)
Rest of field:9Mo' Em Down (15/1), 2As Catch Can (20/1), 11Lady In Paris (15/1), 8Princesa Moche (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1753104
🎯 Longshots: 5611074391182
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #10, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:8Ember Royale (6/5)
Place:7Free Closer (7/2)
Show:11Palo Alto Baby (15/1)
Other contenders:6Daytona Diamond (9/2), 5Manee (10/1), 2Beautiful Dawn (15/1), 9Stay Bossy (30/1)
Rest of field:1You Trust Me (30/1), 3Lihue Princess (30/1), 4Ms Grainger Danger (30/1), 10Tashie (30/1), 12Strident Miss (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8765112
🎯 Longshots: 876521191341012
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #11, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Magnify (3/1)
Place:4In The Tank (10/1)
Show:5Prince Dolce (4/1)
Other contenders:7Sir Rocket (6/1), 11Poor Connection (9/2), 3Stylishlyacclaimed (6/1), 10None Above The Law (8/1)
Rest of field:9Cali Cat (20/1), 6Tribal (20/1), 2Uncle Happy (30/1), 8Midnight Mammoth (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1511734
🎯 Longshots: 5131147106928
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $29,000
Win:3Hard To Figure (7/2)
Place:5Sendit Mo (3/1)
Show:2See Through It (2/1)
Other contenders:6Ima Track Star (6/1), 4B Grayson (8/1), 8Hey Brother (10/1)
Rest of field:1Zombo Bombo (15/1), 7Soi Ngern (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 235648
🎯 Longshots: 25831476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:6D'yquem (7/5)
Place:3Royal Pearl (2/1)
Show:5Rosaura (7/2)
Other contenders:4Nineteen Forty Two (6/1), 2Endless Smoke (12/1)
Rest of field:1Lucille B (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:1Early Encore (2/5)
Place:5Golden Club (5/1)
Show:2Angel's Ember (6/1)
Other contenders:3Empire Of Ash (15/1), 7Cupid Cowboy (20/1), 6Believer (20/1)
Rest of field:4The Moe Show (20/1), 8Fumano's Fire (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152376
🎯 Longshots: 15328746
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:5Dr. Filkins (7/5)
Place:1Chalky's Gold (10/1)
Show:7Chaotic Neutral (5/1)
Other contenders:9Low Key Cool (7/2), 8One Last Strike (6/1), 10Duke Of Orleans (12/1)
Rest of field:2Bello Rosso (20/1), 3Mordred's Revenge (30/1), 6Wasting Aces (20/1), 4Gato Volador (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5978110
🎯 Longshots: 51091827643
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:2Doo Wop Don (4/1)
Place:10Dirty Words (2/1)
Show:4Midnite Musket (4/1)
Other contenders:3Check's On The Way (6/1), 5Tapalo (10/1), 9Alpine Thunder (12/1), 7Wizard Of Westwood (15/1)
Rest of field:6Arkadelphia (30/1), 1Kahuna Magic (30/1), 12Come Out Fighting (20/1), 11Ya'll Come (30/1), 8Joey Brackets (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1024359
🎯 Longshots: 105241273916118
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $35,000
Win:10Doing Time (2/1)
Place:5Milken Cookies (5/2)
Show:1Gray Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:3Hammerbarn (12/1), 2Shapoval (8/1), 7Papa Santos (8/1)
Rest of field:6Joe Vittori (20/1), 8Wicked Spud (30/1), 9Henie In Black (15/1), 4Desert Hawk (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1051273
🎯 Longshots: 10527619348
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:3Swift Appeal (5/2)
Place:9High Hull Gill (8/1)
Show:10Calvin Graham (5/1)
Other contenders:1Freddie Blassie (6/1), 6Fully Favorable (30/1), 4One Punch Wonder (8/1), 2Beat The Man (10/1)
Rest of field:11M C Dreams (6/1), 5Trojans Forever (12/1), 7So Cal Notte (15/1), 8Ryne Sandberg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 39101114
🎯 Longshots: 3101119425786
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:3May Day Ready (5/1)
Place:10Baltic Fire (8/1)
Show:5Bojaca Blessing (5/1)
Other contenders:4Little Jamie (10/1), 7Ambaya (4/1), 1Miss Nightfall (3/1), 9Mo' Em Down (15/1)
Rest of field:6Raw Ability (12/1), 2As Catch Can (20/1), 8Princesa Moche (20/1), 11Lady In Paris (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1375104
🎯 Longshots: 5611074391182
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $175,000
Win:8Ember Royale (6/5)
Place:6Daytona Diamond (9/2)
Show:7Free Closer (7/2)
Other contenders:2Beautiful Dawn (15/1), 11Palo Alto Baby (15/1), 5Manee (10/1), 4Ms Grainger Danger (30/1)
Rest of field:10Tashie (30/1), 1You Trust Me (30/1), 9Stay Bossy (30/1), 3Lihue Princess (30/1), 12Strident Miss (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8675211
🎯 Longshots: 876521191341012
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1Magnify (3/1)
Place:3Stylishlyacclaimed (6/1)
Show:5Prince Dolce (4/1)
Other contenders:11Poor Connection (9/2), 7Sir Rocket (6/1), 10None Above The Law (8/1), 4In The Tank (10/1)
Rest of field:2Uncle Happy (30/1), 6Tribal (20/1), 9Cali Cat (20/1), 8Midnight Mammoth (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 15113710
🎯 Longshots: 5131147106928
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#2,#5 (60%) / R2: #3,#6 (64%) / R3: #1,#5 (73%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#6 (64%) / R3: #1,#5 (73%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (72%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #1,#5 (73%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (72%) / R5: #2,#10,#5 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #2,#10,#5 (60%) / R6: #10,#5,#1 (71%) / R7: #3,#9 (68%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#2,#5 (60%) / R2: #3,#6 (64%) / R3: #1,#5 (73%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (72%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#6 (64%) / R3: #1,#5 (73%) / R4: #5,#7,#1 (72%) / R5: #2,#10,#5 (60%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALPINE THUNDERAMBAYAANGEL'S EMBERARKADELPHIAAS CATCH CAN
BALTIC FIREBEAT THE MANBEAUTIFUL DAWNBELIEVERBELLO ROSSO
CALI CATCALVIN GRAHAMCHALKY'S GOLDCHAOTIC NEUTRALCHECK'S ON THE WAY
CUPID COWBOYD'YQUEMDAYTONA DIAMONDDESERT HAWKDIRTY WORDS
DOO WOP DONDR. FILKINSDUKE OF ORLEANSEARLY ENCOREEMBER ROYALE
ENDLESS SMOKEFREDDIE BLASSIEFREE CLOSERFULLY FAVORABLEFUMANO'S FIRE
GOLDEN CLUBGRAY THUNDERHAMMERBARNHARD TO FIGUREHENIE IN BLACK
HIGH HULL GILLIMA TRACK STARIN THE TANKJOE VITTORIJOEY BRACKETS
LADY IN PARISLIHUE PRINCESSLITTLE JAMIELOW KEY COOLLUCILLE B
MAGNIFYMANEEMAY DAY READYMIDNIGHT MAMMOTHMIDNITE MUSKET
MISS NIGHTFALLMO' EM DOWNMORDRED'S REVENGEMS GRAINGER DANGERNINETEEN FORTY TWO
ONE LAST STRIKEONE PUNCH WONDERPALO ALTO BABYPAPA SANTOSPOOR CONNECTION
PRINCESA MOCHERAW ABILITYROSAURAROYAL PEARLRYNE SANDBERG
SENDIT MOSHAPOVALSIR ROCKETSO CAL NOTTESOI NGERN
STRIDENT MISSSTYLISHLYACCLAIMEDSWIFT APPEALTAPALOTASHIE
TRIBALTROJANS FOREVERUNCLE HAPPYWASTING ACESWICKED SPUD
YA'LL COMEYOU TRUST MEZOMBO BOMBO

 


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