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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mountaineer Park, November 1, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 232 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-08-16 to 2026-10-27.

0%22%44%66%88%Our top pick: 70.3% from 232 racesOur top pick70.3%Morning-line favourite: 67.2% from 232 racesMorning-line favourite67.2%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick70.3%232
Morning-line favourite67.2%232
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Beautriz (2/1)
Place:2Rizz (3/1)
Show:6Zena Cat (7/1)
Other contenders:11Spirit To Inspire (9/2), 5Mazarn (6/1), 13Light My Flame (10/1), 4Heart Beats True (12/1)
Rest of field:7Gamay (9/1), 9Itza Kitty (15/1), 1Vai Gattina (10/1), 12Cole's Valentine (10/1), 14Slush Fund (12/1), 8Gambi (20/1), 10Salty Mama (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32116513
🎯 Longshots: 3241367119512114810
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Blue Ice (3/1)
Place:3Have A Happy (2/1)
Show:13Surprise D' Oro (7/2)
Other contenders:8Chizzy (6/1), 14Snookie Jones (4/1), 12Super Pachi (5/1), 7Can't Argue That (12/1)
Rest of field:9Mika's Way (7/1), 6Springtimeprincess (20/1), 5Mary Mcgee (10/1), 10Brahmastra (9/1), 2Gorda (15/1), 11Eurcool (12/1), 1Sway Me Over (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431314812
🎯 Longshots: 4837131451269210111
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #13, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Chiva Loca (2/1)
Place:1Melly B. Good (3/1)
Show:5It's Yesenia (7/2)
Other contenders:4Zenovia (7/1), 2Binational (12/1), 7La Misteriosa (10/1)
Rest of field:9Tiptoetappin (15/1), 3Monserrate O's (12/1), 8Halo Nashry (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615472
🎯 Longshots: 615492378
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7American Of Course (2/1)
Place:8Divine Cross (3/1)
Show:2Greyhound Station (9/1)
Other contenders:10Pasta Salad Rhonda (6/1), 9Miss M M (7/1), 1X Gene (12/1), 3Sweet Talia (10/1)
Rest of field:11Honestly (8/1), 6Vingativa (15/1), 4Lucky Phoenix (20/1), 5Shipshewana (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7810291
🎯 Longshots: 7218111093465
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Greatdayforhockey (2/1)
Place:7Judy Chop (3/1)
Show:6Hidden Favor (6/1)
Other contenders:8Robert Lee (9/1), 10Crime Lord (7/1), 2Playground Warrior (10/1)
Rest of field:1El Arracadas (15/1), 5Interval (20/1), 3Blown Away (12/1), 9Ticket To Paradise (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4768102
🎯 Longshots: 87146531029
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Easy Fast (2/1)
Place:5Golden Bandit (3/1)
Show:2Sudden Shift (7/1)
Other contenders:9Le Griffon (7/2), 7Rose's Pepino (12/1), 6Dr Jack Flyer (15/1)
Rest of field:4Solomons Gold (12/1), 1As One Does (10/1), 3Brown Liquor Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859276
🎯 Longshots: 586473129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Summersattheshore (2/1)
Place:4Mi Amore (7/2)
Show:7Marmara (3/1)
Other contenders:3Lamporghini (10/1), 5Legacy Trail (7/1), 6The Shoe Lady (12/1)
Rest of field:2General Ginny (12/1), 9Breezy Dance (20/1), 1Dialed Inna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 847536
🎯 Longshots: 386492751
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Quistmer (2/1)
Place:12Johnnyfrenchfri (3/1)
Show:6Collectorate (3/1)
Other contenders:3Todo Fino (6/1), 11Juba's Notion (5/1), 9Hoylake (10/1), 2Pure Panic (9/1)
Rest of field:10Dropkick Murphy (7/1), 4Standard Of Proof (12/1), 1Law Of The Jungle (20/1), 7Memphis Slim (15/1), 8Centsofwander (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 51261139
🎯 Longshots: 912254116371018
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mountaineer Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 151 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-09-06 to 2026-10-27.

0%12%24%36%48%Our top pick: 38.4% from 151 racesOur top pick38.4%Morning-line favourite: 34.4% from 151 racesMorning-line favourite34.4%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick38.4%151
Morning-line favourite34.4%151
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:3Beautriz (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Place:2Rizz (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38%
Show:6Zena Cat (7/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:5Mazarn (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 13Light My Flame (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -28%, 11Spirit To Inspire (9/2) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -68%, 4Heart Beats True (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2
Rest of field:7Gamay (9/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -40%, 9Itza Kitty (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%, 12Cole's Valentine (10/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -69%, 14Slush Fund (12/1) 2% · fair 117-2 underlay -79%, 1Vai Gattina (10/1) 1% · fair 66-1 underlay -85%, 10Salty Mama (20/1) 1% · fair 70-1 underlay -72%, 8Gambi (20/1) 1% · fair 241-2 underlay -83%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Beautriz — 26.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Beautriz26.1% ◀Rizz — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Rizz17.2%Zena Cat — 11.3% win probability, morning line 7/1Zena Cat11.3%Mazarn — 7.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Mazarn7.0%Light My Flame — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Light My Flame6.8%Spirit To Inspire — 6.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Spirit To Inspire6.6%Heart Beats True — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Heart Beats True6.5%Gamay — 6.3% win probability, morning line 9/1Gamay6.3%Itza Kitty — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Itza Kitty3.9%Cole'S Valentine — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Cole'S Valentine3.0%Slush Fund — 1.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Slush Fund1.7%Vai Gattina — 1.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Vai Gattina1.5%Salty Mama — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Salty Mama1.4%Gambi — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Gambi0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Beautriz26.1%2/1
Rizz17.2%3/1
Zena Cat11.3%7/1
Mazarn7.0%6/1
Light My Flame6.8%10/1
Spirit To Inspire6.6%4.5/1
Heart Beats True6.5%12/1
Gamay6.3%9/1
Itza Kitty3.9%15/1
Cole'S Valentine3.0%10/1
Slush Fund1.7%12/1
Vai Gattina1.5%10/1
Salty Mama1.4%20/1
Gambi0.8%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBeautriz: model 26.1% vs market 19.4% (+6.6 points)Beautriz+6.6Rizz: model 17.2% vs market 14.6% (+2.6 points)Rizz+2.6Zena Cat: model 11.3% vs market 7.3% (+4.0 points)Zena Cat+4.0Mazarn: model 7.0% vs market 8.3% (-1.3 points)Mazarn-1.3Light My Flame: model 6.8% vs market 5.3% (+1.5 points)Light My Flame+1.5Spirit To Inspire: model 6.6% vs market 10.6% (-4.0 points)Spirit To Inspire-4.0Heart Beats True: model 6.5% vs market 4.5% (+2.1 points)Heart Beats True+2.1Gamay: model 6.3% vs market 5.8% (+0.4 points)Gamay+0.4Itza Kitty: model 3.9% vs market 3.6% (+0.2 points)Itza Kitty+0.2Cole'S Valentine: model 3.0% vs market 5.3% (-2.3 points)Cole'S Valentine-2.3Slush Fund: model 1.7% vs market 4.5% (-2.8 points)Slush Fund-2.8Vai Gattina: model 1.5% vs market 5.3% (-3.8 points)Vai Gattina-3.8Salty Mama: model 1.4% vs market 2.8% (-1.4 points)Salty Mama-1.4Gambi: model 0.8% vs market 2.8% (-2.0 points)Gambi-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Beautriz26.1%19.4%+6.6
Rizz17.2%14.6%+2.6
Zena Cat11.3%7.3%+4.0
Mazarn7.0%8.3%-1.3
Light My Flame6.8%5.3%+1.5
Spirit To Inspire6.6%10.6%-4.0
Heart Beats True6.5%4.5%+2.1
Gamay6.3%5.8%+0.4
Itza Kitty3.9%3.6%+0.2
Cole'S Valentine3.0%5.3%-2.3
Slush Fund1.7%4.5%-2.8
Vai Gattina1.5%5.3%-3.8
Salty Mama1.4%2.8%-1.4
Gambi0.8%2.8%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 3211657
🎯 Longshots: 3241367119512114810
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4Blue Ice (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:3Have A Happy (2/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -64%
Show:13Surprise D' Oro (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -49%
Other contenders:8Chizzy (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -25%, 14Snookie Jones (4/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -70%, 7Can't Argue That (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 9Mika's Way (7/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -55%
Rest of field:12Super Pachi (5/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -73%, 5Mary Mcgee (10/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -60%, 6Springtimeprincess (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -43%, 11Eurcool (12/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -73%, 1Sway Me Over (20/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -55%, 2Gorda (15/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -69%, 10Brahmastra (9/1) 1% · fair 151-2 underlay -88%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Blue Ice — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Blue Ice21.7% ◀Have A Happy — 15.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Have A Happy15.2%Surprise D' Oro — 12.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Surprise D' Oro12.7%Chizzy — 11.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Chizzy11.1%Snookie Jones — 6.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Snookie Jones6.9%Can'T Argue That — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Can'T Argue That6.8%Mika'S Way — 6.1% win probability, morning line 7/1Mika'S Way6.1%Super Pachi — 5.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Super Pachi5.2%Mary Mcgee — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Mary Mcgee3.9%Springtimeprincess — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Springtimeprincess2.7%Eurcool — 2.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Eurcool2.2%Sway Me Over — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Sway Me Over2.2%Gorda — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Gorda2.0%Brahmastra — 1.3% win probability, morning line 9/1Brahmastra1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Blue Ice21.7%3/1
Have A Happy15.2%2/1
Surprise D' Oro12.7%3.5/1
Chizzy11.1%6/1
Snookie Jones6.9%4/1
Can'T Argue That6.8%12/1
Mika'S Way6.1%7/1
Super Pachi5.2%5/1
Mary Mcgee3.9%10/1
Springtimeprincess2.7%20/1
Eurcool2.2%12/1
Sway Me Over2.2%20/1
Gorda2.0%15/1
Brahmastra1.3%9/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBlue Ice: model 21.7% vs market 12.9% (+8.9 points)Blue Ice+8.9Have A Happy: model 15.2% vs market 17.2% (-2.0 points)Have A Happy-2.0Surprise D' Oro: model 12.7% vs market 11.4% (+1.3 points)Surprise D' Oro+1.3Chizzy: model 11.1% vs market 7.4% (+3.7 points)Chizzy+3.7Snookie Jones: model 6.9% vs market 10.3% (-3.4 points)Snookie Jones-3.4Can'T Argue That: model 6.8% vs market 4.0% (+2.9 points)Can'T Argue That+2.9Mika'S Way: model 6.1% vs market 6.4% (-0.3 points)Mika'S Way-0.3Super Pachi: model 5.2% vs market 8.6% (-3.4 points)Super Pachi-3.4Mary Mcgee: model 3.9% vs market 4.7% (-0.8 points)Mary Mcgee-0.8Springtimeprincess: model 2.7% vs market 2.5% (+0.3 points)Springtimeprincess+0.3Eurcool: model 2.2% vs market 4.0% (-1.7 points)Eurcool-1.7Sway Me Over: model 2.2% vs market 2.5% (-0.2 points)Sway Me Over-0.2Gorda: model 2.0% vs market 3.2% (-1.2 points)Gorda-1.2Brahmastra: model 1.3% vs market 5.1% (-3.8 points)Brahmastra-3.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Blue Ice21.7%12.9%+8.9
Have A Happy15.2%17.2%-2.0
Surprise D' Oro12.7%11.4%+1.3
Chizzy11.1%7.4%+3.7
Snookie Jones6.9%10.3%-3.4
Can'T Argue That6.8%4.0%+2.9
Mika'S Way6.1%6.4%-0.3
Super Pachi5.2%8.6%-3.4
Mary Mcgee3.9%4.7%-0.8
Springtimeprincess2.7%2.5%+0.3
Eurcool2.2%4.0%-1.7
Sway Me Over2.2%2.5%-0.2
Gorda2.0%3.2%-1.2
Brahmastra1.3%5.1%-3.8
🌧️ Off-track: 431381412
🎯 Longshots: 4837131451269210111
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #13, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:6Chiva Loca (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:1Melly B. Good (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -31%
Show:5It's Yesenia (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -31%
Other contenders:4Zenovia (7/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 2Binational (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 3Monserrate O's (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:7La Misteriosa (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -58%, 9Tiptoetappin (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%, 8Halo Nashry (20/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -52%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Chiva Loca — 29.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Chiva Loca29.0% ◀Melly B. Good — 18.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Melly B. Good18.8%It'S Yesenia — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1It'S Yesenia16.4%Zenovia — 12.9% win probability, morning line 7/1Zenovia12.9%Binational — 8.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Binational8.2%Monserrate O'S — 4.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Monserrate O'S4.6%La Misteriosa — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1La Misteriosa4.0%Tiptoetappin — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Tiptoetappin3.8%Halo Nashry — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Halo Nashry2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Chiva Loca29.0%2/1
Melly B. Good18.8%3/1
It'S Yesenia16.4%3.5/1
Zenovia12.9%7/1
Binational8.2%12/1
Monserrate O'S4.6%12/1
La Misteriosa4.0%10/1
Tiptoetappin3.8%15/1
Halo Nashry2.3%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 615427
🎯 Longshots: 615492378
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7American Of Course (2/1) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +84%
Place:8Divine Cross (3/1) 17% · fair 9-2 underlay -37%
Show:10Pasta Salad Rhonda (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%
Other contenders:9Miss M M (7/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -52%, 2Greyhound Station (9/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -50%, 1X Gene (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 3Sweet Talia (10/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -63%
Rest of field:11Honestly (8/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -76%, 6Vingativa (15/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -74%, 4Lucky Phoenix (20/1) 2% · fair 123-2 underlay -67%, 5Shipshewana (20/1) 1% · fair 75-1 underlay -73%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

American Of Course — 47.9% win probability, morning line 2/1American Of Course47.9% ◀Divine Cross — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Divine Cross17.5%Pasta Salad Rhonda — 7.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Pasta Salad Rhonda7.0%Miss M M — 6.4% win probability, morning line 7/1Miss M M6.4%Greyhound Station — 5.3% win probability, morning line 9/1Greyhound Station5.3%X Gene — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1X Gene4.9%Sweet Talia — 3.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Sweet Talia3.6%Honestly — 2.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Honestly2.9%Vingativa — 1.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Vingativa1.7%Lucky Phoenix — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Lucky Phoenix1.6%Shipshewana — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Shipshewana1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
American Of Course47.9%2/1
Divine Cross17.5%3/1
Pasta Salad Rhonda7.0%6/1
Miss M M6.4%7/1
Greyhound Station5.3%9/1
X Gene4.9%12/1
Sweet Talia3.6%10/1
Honestly2.9%8/1
Vingativa1.7%15/1
Lucky Phoenix1.6%20/1
Shipshewana1.3%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAmerican Of Course: model 47.9% vs market 24.0% (+23.9 points)American Of Course+23.9Divine Cross: model 17.5% vs market 18.0% (-0.5 points)Divine Cross-0.5Pasta Salad Rhonda: model 7.0% vs market 10.3% (-3.3 points)Pasta Salad Rhonda-3.3Miss M M: model 6.4% vs market 9.0% (-2.7 points)Miss M M-2.7Greyhound Station: model 5.3% vs market 7.2% (-1.9 points)Greyhound Station-1.9X Gene: model 4.9% vs market 5.5% (-0.6 points)X Gene-0.6Sweet Talia: model 3.6% vs market 6.6% (-2.9 points)Sweet Talia-2.9Honestly: model 2.9% vs market 8.0% (-5.1 points)Honestly-5.1Vingativa: model 1.7% vs market 4.5% (-2.8 points)Vingativa-2.8Lucky Phoenix: model 1.6% vs market 3.4% (-1.8 points)Lucky Phoenix-1.8Shipshewana: model 1.3% vs market 3.4% (-2.1 points)Shipshewana-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
American Of Course47.9%24.0%+23.9
Divine Cross17.5%18.0%-0.5
Pasta Salad Rhonda7.0%10.3%-3.3
Miss M M6.4%9.0%-2.7
Greyhound Station5.3%7.2%-1.9
X Gene4.9%5.5%-0.6
Sweet Talia3.6%6.6%-2.9
Honestly2.9%8.0%-5.1
Vingativa1.7%4.5%-2.8
Lucky Phoenix1.6%3.4%-1.8
Shipshewana1.3%3.4%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 78109112
🎯 Longshots: 7218111093465
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:6Hidden Favor (6/1) 19% · fair 4-1 overlay +44%
Place:7Judy Chop (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -33%
Show:4Greatdayforhockey (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -56%
Other contenders:10Crime Lord (7/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Robert Lee (9/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 5Interval (20/1) 7% · fair 14-1 overlay +43%
Rest of field:1El Arracadas (15/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 3Blown Away (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 2Playground Warrior (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%, 9Ticket To Paradise (20/1) 1% · fair 369-2 underlay -89%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hidden Favor — 19.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Hidden Favor19.4% ◀Judy Chop — 18.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Judy Chop18.3%Greatdayforhockey — 18.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Greatdayforhockey18.1%Crime Lord — 10.0% win probability, morning line 7/1Crime Lord10.0%Robert Lee — 9.5% win probability, morning line 9/1Robert Lee9.5%Interval — 6.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Interval6.7%El Arracadas — 6.2% win probability, morning line 15/1El Arracadas6.2%Blown Away — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Blown Away6.2%Playground Warrior — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Playground Warrior5.0%Ticket To Paradise — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Ticket To Paradise0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hidden Favor19.4%6/1
Judy Chop18.3%3/1
Greatdayforhockey18.1%2/1
Crime Lord10.0%7/1
Robert Lee9.5%9/1
Interval6.7%20/1
El Arracadas6.2%15/1
Blown Away6.2%12/1
Playground Warrior5.0%10/1
Ticket To Paradise0.5%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHidden Favor: model 19.4% vs market 11.2% (+8.2 points)Hidden Favor+8.2Judy Chop: model 18.3% vs market 19.6% (-1.3 points)Judy Chop-1.3Greatdayforhockey: model 18.1% vs market 26.1% (-8.0 points)Greatdayforhockey-8.0Crime Lord: model 10.0% vs market 9.8% (+0.2 points)Crime Lord+0.2Robert Lee: model 9.5% vs market 7.8% (+1.6 points)Robert Lee+1.6Interval: model 6.7% vs market 3.7% (+3.0 points)Interval+3.0El Arracadas: model 6.2% vs market 4.9% (+1.4 points)El Arracadas+1.4Blown Away: model 6.2% vs market 6.0% (+0.2 points)Blown Away+0.2Playground Warrior: model 5.0% vs market 7.1% (-2.1 points)Playground Warrior-2.1Ticket To Paradise: model 0.5% vs market 3.7% (-3.2 points)Ticket To Paradise-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hidden Favor19.4%11.2%+8.2
Judy Chop18.3%19.6%-1.3
Greatdayforhockey18.1%26.1%-8.0
Crime Lord10.0%9.8%+0.2
Robert Lee9.5%7.8%+1.6
Interval6.7%3.7%+3.0
El Arracadas6.2%4.9%+1.4
Blown Away6.2%6.0%+0.2
Playground Warrior5.0%7.1%-2.1
Ticket To Paradise0.5%3.7%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 4761082
🎯 Longshots: 87146531029
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:8Easy Fast (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:5Golden Bandit (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38%
Show:2Sudden Shift (7/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +28%
Other contenders:4Solomons Gold (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 9Le Griffon (7/2) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -76%, 1As One Does (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:6Dr Jack Flyer (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 3Brown Liquor Man (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2, 7Rose's Pepino (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Easy Fast — 34.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Easy Fast34.3% ◀Golden Bandit — 17.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Golden Bandit17.1%Sudden Shift — 15.4% win probability, morning line 7/1Sudden Shift15.4%Solomons Gold — 7.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Solomons Gold7.0%Le Griffon — 6.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Le Griffon6.5%As One Does — 6.3% win probability, morning line 10/1As One Does6.3%Dr Jack Flyer — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Dr Jack Flyer5.4%Brown Liquor Man — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Brown Liquor Man4.1%Rose'S Pepino — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Rose'S Pepino4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Easy Fast34.3%2/1
Golden Bandit17.1%3/1
Sudden Shift15.4%7/1
Solomons Gold7.0%12/1
Le Griffon6.5%3.5/1
As One Does6.3%10/1
Dr Jack Flyer5.4%15/1
Brown Liquor Man4.1%20/1
Rose'S Pepino4.0%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEasy Fast: model 34.3% vs market 25.9% (+8.3 points)Easy Fast+8.3Golden Bandit: model 17.1% vs market 19.4% (-2.4 points)Golden Bandit-2.4Sudden Shift: model 15.4% vs market 9.7% (+5.7 points)Sudden Shift+5.7Solomons Gold: model 7.0% vs market 6.0% (+1.0 points)Solomons Gold+1.0Le Griffon: model 6.5% vs market 17.3% (-10.8 points)Le Griffon-10.8As One Does: model 6.3% vs market 7.1% (-0.8 points)As One Does-0.8Dr Jack Flyer: model 5.4% vs market 4.9% (+0.6 points)Dr Jack Flyer+0.6Brown Liquor Man: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.4 points)Brown Liquor Man+0.4Rose'S Pepino: model 4.0% vs market 6.0% (-2.0 points)Rose'S Pepino-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Easy Fast34.3%25.9%+8.3
Golden Bandit17.1%19.4%-2.4
Sudden Shift15.4%9.7%+5.7
Solomons Gold7.0%6.0%+1.0
Le Griffon6.5%17.3%-10.8
As One Does6.3%7.1%-0.8
Dr Jack Flyer5.4%4.9%+0.6
Brown Liquor Man4.1%3.7%+0.4
Rose'S Pepino4.0%6.0%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 859214
🎯 Longshots: 586473129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:8Summersattheshore (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33%
Place:7Marmara (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:4Mi Amore (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:3Lamporghini (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +62%, 5Legacy Trail (7/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6The Shoe Lady (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:2General Ginny (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -40%, 9Breezy Dance (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -35%, 1Dialed Inna (15/1) 1% · fair 72-1 underlay -79%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Summersattheshore — 25.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Summersattheshore25.2% ◀Marmara — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Marmara19.0%Mi Amore — 14.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mi Amore14.1%Lamporghini — 14.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Lamporghini14.0%Legacy Trail — 11.1% win probability, morning line 7/1Legacy Trail11.1%The Shoe Lady — 7.4% win probability, morning line 12/1The Shoe Lady7.4%General Ginny — 4.7% win probability, morning line 12/1General Ginny4.7%Breezy Dance — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Breezy Dance3.1%Dialed Inna — 1.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Dialed Inna1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Summersattheshore25.2%2/1
Marmara19.0%3/1
Mi Amore14.1%3.5/1
Lamporghini14.0%10/1
Legacy Trail11.1%7/1
The Shoe Lady7.4%12/1
General Ginny4.7%12/1
Breezy Dance3.1%20/1
Dialed Inna1.4%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSummersattheshore: model 25.2% vs market 25.9% (-0.7 points)Summersattheshore-0.7Marmara: model 19.0% vs market 19.4% (-0.5 points)Marmara-0.5Mi Amore: model 14.1% vs market 17.3% (-3.2 points)Mi Amore-3.2Lamporghini: model 14.0% vs market 7.1% (+6.9 points)Lamporghini+6.9Legacy Trail: model 11.1% vs market 9.7% (+1.3 points)Legacy Trail+1.3The Shoe Lady: model 7.4% vs market 6.0% (+1.4 points)The Shoe Lady+1.4General Ginny: model 4.7% vs market 6.0% (-1.2 points)General Ginny-1.2Breezy Dance: model 3.1% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Breezy Dance-0.6Dialed Inna: model 1.4% vs market 4.9% (-3.5 points)Dialed Inna-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Summersattheshore25.2%25.9%-0.7
Marmara19.0%19.4%-0.5
Mi Amore14.1%17.3%-3.2
Lamporghini14.0%7.1%+6.9
Legacy Trail11.1%9.7%+1.3
The Shoe Lady7.4%6.0%+1.4
General Ginny4.7%6.0%-1.2
Breezy Dance3.1%3.7%-0.6
Dialed Inna1.4%4.9%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 874536
🎯 Longshots: 386492751
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:12Johnnyfrenchfri (3/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -48%
Place:5Quistmer (2/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -69%
Show:6Collectorate (3/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -58%
Other contenders:11Juba's Notion (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 3Todo Fino (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -27%, 9Hoylake (10/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 10Dropkick Murphy (7/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -40%
Rest of field:2Pure Panic (9/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -29%, 4Standard Of Proof (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -29%, 1Law Of The Jungle (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%, 7Memphis Slim (15/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -66%, 8Centsofwander (20/1) 2% · fair 117-2 underlay -66%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Johnnyfrenchfri — 14.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Johnnyfrenchfri14.7% ◀Quistmer — 13.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Quistmer13.4%Collectorate — 12.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Collectorate12.2%Juba'S Notion — 11.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Juba'S Notion11.5%Todo Fino — 10.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Todo Fino10.8%Hoylake — 9.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Hoylake9.4%Dropkick Murphy — 7.8% win probability, morning line 7/1Dropkick Murphy7.8%Pure Panic — 7.3% win probability, morning line 9/1Pure Panic7.3%Standard Of Proof — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Standard Of Proof5.6%Law Of The Jungle — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Law Of The Jungle3.3%Memphis Slim — 2.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Memphis Slim2.2%Centsofwander — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Centsofwander1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Johnnyfrenchfri14.7%3/1
Quistmer13.4%2/1
Collectorate12.2%3/1
Juba'S Notion11.5%5/1
Todo Fino10.8%6/1
Hoylake9.4%10/1
Dropkick Murphy7.8%7/1
Pure Panic7.3%9/1
Standard Of Proof5.6%12/1
Law Of The Jungle3.3%20/1
Memphis Slim2.2%15/1
Centsofwander1.7%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJohnnyfrenchfri: model 14.7% vs market 14.8% (-0.1 points)Johnnyfrenchfri-0.1Quistmer: model 13.4% vs market 19.7% (-6.3 points)Quistmer-6.3Collectorate: model 12.2% vs market 14.8% (-2.6 points)Collectorate-2.6Juba'S Notion: model 11.5% vs market 9.8% (+1.7 points)Juba'S Notion+1.7Todo Fino: model 10.8% vs market 8.4% (+2.3 points)Todo Fino+2.3Hoylake: model 9.4% vs market 5.4% (+4.0 points)Hoylake+4.0Dropkick Murphy: model 7.8% vs market 7.4% (+0.5 points)Dropkick Murphy+0.5Pure Panic: model 7.3% vs market 5.9% (+1.4 points)Pure Panic+1.4Standard Of Proof: model 5.6% vs market 4.5% (+1.1 points)Standard Of Proof+1.1Law Of The Jungle: model 3.3% vs market 2.8% (+0.5 points)Law Of The Jungle+0.5Memphis Slim: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Memphis Slim-1.5Centsofwander: model 1.7% vs market 2.8% (-1.1 points)Centsofwander-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Johnnyfrenchfri14.7%14.8%-0.1
Quistmer13.4%19.7%-6.3
Collectorate12.2%14.8%-2.6
Juba'S Notion11.5%9.8%+1.7
Todo Fino10.8%8.4%+2.3
Hoylake9.4%5.4%+4.0
Dropkick Murphy7.8%7.4%+0.5
Pure Panic7.3%5.9%+1.4
Standard Of Proof5.6%4.5%+1.1
Law Of The Jungle3.3%2.8%+0.5
Memphis Slim2.2%3.7%-1.5
Centsofwander1.7%2.8%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 512611310
🎯 Longshots: 912254116371018
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #5, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 564 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-04-13 to 2026-10-27.

0%21%42%63%85%Our top pick: 67.7% from 564 racesOur top pick67.7%Morning-line favourite: 65.1% from 564 racesMorning-line favourite65.1%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick67.7%564
Morning-line favourite65.1%564
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:3Beautriz (2/1)
Place:2Rizz (3/1)
Show:11Spirit To Inspire (9/2)
Other contenders:6Zena Cat (7/1), 4Heart Beats True (12/1), 13Light My Flame (10/1), 7Gamay (9/1)
Rest of field:5Mazarn (6/1), 9Itza Kitty (15/1), 1Vai Gattina (10/1), 12Cole's Valentine (10/1), 14Slush Fund (12/1), 10Salty Mama (20/1), 8Gambi (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3211657
🎯 Longshots: 3241367119512114810
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #11, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4Blue Ice (3/1)
Place:13Surprise D' Oro (7/2)
Show:8Chizzy (6/1)
Other contenders:3Have A Happy (2/1), 14Snookie Jones (4/1), 12Super Pachi (5/1), 7Can't Argue That (12/1)
Rest of field:9Mika's Way (7/1), 5Mary Mcgee (10/1), 6Springtimeprincess (20/1), 10Brahmastra (9/1), 2Gorda (15/1), 1Sway Me Over (20/1), 11Eurcool (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341314812
🎯 Longshots: 4837131451269210111
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #13, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:6Chiva Loca (2/1)
Place:1Melly B. Good (3/1)
Show:5It's Yesenia (7/2)
Other contenders:7La Misteriosa (10/1), 9Tiptoetappin (15/1), 4Zenovia (7/1)
Rest of field:2Binational (12/1), 3Monserrate O's (12/1), 8Halo Nashry (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615472
🎯 Longshots: 615492378
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7American Of Course (2/1)
Place:8Divine Cross (3/1)
Show:2Greyhound Station (9/1)
Other contenders:1X Gene (12/1), 9Miss M M (7/1), 10Pasta Salad Rhonda (6/1), 11Honestly (8/1)
Rest of field:3Sweet Talia (10/1), 4Lucky Phoenix (20/1), 6Vingativa (15/1), 5Shipshewana (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 78109211
🎯 Longshots: 7218111093465
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7Judy Chop (3/1)
Place:4Greatdayforhockey (2/1)
Show:6Hidden Favor (6/1)
Other contenders:8Robert Lee (9/1), 10Crime Lord (7/1), 1El Arracadas (15/1)
Rest of field:9Ticket To Paradise (20/1), 5Interval (20/1), 3Blown Away (12/1), 2Playground Warrior (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4768102
🎯 Longshots: 87146531029
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:8Easy Fast (2/1)
Place:2Sudden Shift (7/1)
Show:5Golden Bandit (3/1)
Other contenders:4Solomons Gold (12/1), 9Le Griffon (7/2), 1As One Does (10/1)
Rest of field:7Rose's Pepino (12/1), 6Dr Jack Flyer (15/1), 3Brown Liquor Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859214
🎯 Longshots: 586473129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:8Summersattheshore (2/1)
Place:4Mi Amore (7/2)
Show:7Marmara (3/1)
Other contenders:3Lamporghini (10/1), 5Legacy Trail (7/1), 6The Shoe Lady (12/1)
Rest of field:9Breezy Dance (20/1), 2General Ginny (12/1), 1Dialed Inna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 874536
🎯 Longshots: 386492751
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:11Juba's Notion (5/1)
Place:12Johnnyfrenchfri (3/1)
Show:5Quistmer (2/1)
Other contenders:6Collectorate (3/1), 2Pure Panic (9/1), 3Todo Fino (6/1), 9Hoylake (10/1)
Rest of field:10Dropkick Murphy (7/1), 4Standard Of Proof (12/1), 7Memphis Slim (15/1), 1Law Of The Jungle (20/1), 8Centsofwander (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512611310
🎯 Longshots: 912254116371018
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #12, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #6, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #13, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #7 over #8 ($1 straight; box #7-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #8, #2, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #8, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #5 ($1 straight; box #8-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #4, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #12 ($1 straight; box #5-#12 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #12, #11, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
14Heart Beats True12/1—9.8%+19.8%0.41%$0.41
73Lamporghini10/1—10.9%+14.8%0.37%$0.37
89Hoylake10/1—10.7%+13.0%0.33%$0.33
66Dr Jack Flyer15/1—6.8%+6.2%0.10%$0.10
TOTAL across 4 plays:1.2%$1.21
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:3Beautriz (2/1)
Place:2Rizz (3/1)
Show:4Heart Beats True (12/1)
Other contenders:6Zena Cat (7/1), 11Spirit To Inspire (9/2), 5Mazarn (6/1), 13Light My Flame (10/1)
Rest of field:12Cole's Valentine (10/1), 7Gamay (9/1), 9Itza Kitty (15/1), 1Vai Gattina (10/1), 14Slush Fund (12/1), 8Gambi (20/1), 10Salty Mama (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3211654
🎯 Longshots: 3241367119512114810
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:8Chizzy (6/1)
Place:13Surprise D' Oro (7/2)
Show:4Blue Ice (3/1)
Other contenders:3Have A Happy (2/1), 14Snookie Jones (4/1), 7Can't Argue That (12/1), 12Super Pachi (5/1)
Rest of field:9Mika's Way (7/1), 5Mary Mcgee (10/1), 1Sway Me Over (20/1), 6Springtimeprincess (20/1), 2Gorda (15/1), 10Brahmastra (9/1), 11Eurcool (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 313481412
🎯 Longshots: 4837131451269210111
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #13, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:6Chiva Loca (2/1)
Place:5It's Yesenia (7/2)
Show:1Melly B. Good (3/1)
Other contenders:4Zenovia (7/1), 2Binational (12/1), 3Monserrate O's (12/1)
Rest of field:9Tiptoetappin (15/1), 7La Misteriosa (10/1), 8Halo Nashry (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615472
🎯 Longshots: 615492378
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7American Of Course (2/1)
Place:2Greyhound Station (9/1)
Show:8Divine Cross (3/1)
Other contenders:1X Gene (12/1), 10Pasta Salad Rhonda (6/1), 9Miss M M (7/1), 11Honestly (8/1)
Rest of field:4Lucky Phoenix (20/1), 3Sweet Talia (10/1), 6Vingativa (15/1), 5Shipshewana (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 78210911
🎯 Longshots: 7218111093465
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:8Robert Lee (9/1)
Place:1El Arracadas (15/1)
Show:3Blown Away (12/1)
Other contenders:5Interval (20/1), 6Hidden Favor (6/1), 7Judy Chop (3/1)
Rest of field:4Greatdayforhockey (2/1), 10Crime Lord (7/1), 2Playground Warrior (10/1), 9Ticket To Paradise (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4786103
🎯 Longshots: 87146531029
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:2Sudden Shift (7/1)
Place:8Easy Fast (2/1)
Show:5Golden Bandit (3/1)
Other contenders:6Dr Jack Flyer (15/1), 9Le Griffon (7/2), 4Solomons Gold (12/1)
Rest of field:3Brown Liquor Man (20/1), 1As One Does (10/1), 7Rose's Pepino (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 852961
🎯 Longshots: 586473129
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:8Summersattheshore (2/1)
Place:9Breezy Dance (20/1)
Show:7Marmara (3/1)
Other contenders:3Lamporghini (10/1), 4Mi Amore (7/2), 5Legacy Trail (7/1)
Rest of field:6The Shoe Lady (12/1), 2General Ginny (12/1), 1Dialed Inna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 874539
🎯 Longshots: 386492751
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:11Juba's Notion (5/1)
Place:12Johnnyfrenchfri (3/1)
Show:5Quistmer (2/1)
Other contenders:9Hoylake (10/1), 10Dropkick Murphy (7/1), 2Pure Panic (9/1), 6Collectorate (3/1)
Rest of field:3Todo Fino (6/1), 7Memphis Slim (15/1), 4Standard Of Proof (12/1), 1Law Of The Jungle (20/1), 8Centsofwander (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512116310
🎯 Longshots: 912254116371018
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #12, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:3Beautriz (2/1)
Place:2Rizz (3/1)
Show:6Zena Cat (7/1)
Other contenders:11Spirit To Inspire (9/2), 4Heart Beats True (12/1), 13Light My Flame (10/1), 5Mazarn (6/1)
Rest of field:7Gamay (9/1), 9Itza Kitty (15/1), 1Vai Gattina (10/1), 12Cole's Valentine (10/1), 8Gambi (20/1), 14Slush Fund (12/1), 10Salty Mama (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32116513
🎯 Longshots: 3241367119512114810
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4Blue Ice (3/1)
Place:3Have A Happy (2/1)
Show:13Surprise D' Oro (7/2)
Other contenders:8Chizzy (6/1), 14Snookie Jones (4/1), 12Super Pachi (5/1), 7Can't Argue That (12/1)
Rest of field:9Mika's Way (7/1), 6Springtimeprincess (20/1), 1Sway Me Over (20/1), 5Mary Mcgee (10/1), 10Brahmastra (9/1), 2Gorda (15/1), 11Eurcool (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341314812
🎯 Longshots: 4837131451269210111
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #13, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:6Chiva Loca (2/1)
Place:1Melly B. Good (3/1)
Show:5It's Yesenia (7/2)
Other contenders:7La Misteriosa (10/1), 4Zenovia (7/1), 9Tiptoetappin (15/1)
Rest of field:2Binational (12/1), 3Monserrate O's (12/1), 8Halo Nashry (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615472
🎯 Longshots: 615492378
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7American Of Course (2/1)
Place:8Divine Cross (3/1)
Show:2Greyhound Station (9/1)
Other contenders:10Pasta Salad Rhonda (6/1), 1X Gene (12/1), 9Miss M M (7/1), 3Sweet Talia (10/1)
Rest of field:11Honestly (8/1), 5Shipshewana (20/1), 6Vingativa (15/1), 4Lucky Phoenix (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 78102911
🎯 Longshots: 7218111093465
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:6Hidden Favor (6/1)
Place:8Robert Lee (9/1)
Show:7Judy Chop (3/1)
Other contenders:4Greatdayforhockey (2/1), 10Crime Lord (7/1), 1El Arracadas (15/1)
Rest of field:5Interval (20/1), 2Playground Warrior (10/1), 3Blown Away (12/1), 9Ticket To Paradise (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4768102
🎯 Longshots: 87146531029
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:8Easy Fast (2/1)
Place:5Golden Bandit (3/1)
Show:2Sudden Shift (7/1)
Other contenders:9Le Griffon (7/2), 6Dr Jack Flyer (15/1), 7Rose's Pepino (12/1)
Rest of field:4Solomons Gold (12/1), 1As One Does (10/1), 3Brown Liquor Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859217
🎯 Longshots: 586473129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:8Summersattheshore (2/1)
Place:4Mi Amore (7/2)
Show:3Lamporghini (10/1)
Other contenders:7Marmara (3/1), 5Legacy Trail (7/1), 6The Shoe Lady (12/1)
Rest of field:9Breezy Dance (20/1), 2General Ginny (12/1), 1Dialed Inna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 847536
🎯 Longshots: 386492751
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:5Quistmer (2/1)
Place:12Johnnyfrenchfri (3/1)
Show:11Juba's Notion (5/1)
Other contenders:2Pure Panic (9/1), 6Collectorate (3/1), 3Todo Fino (6/1), 9Hoylake (10/1)
Rest of field:4Standard Of Proof (12/1), 10Dropkick Murphy (7/1), 1Law Of The Jungle (20/1), 7Memphis Slim (15/1), 8Centsofwander (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 51261132
🎯 Longshots: 912254116371018
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #11, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#3,#13 (50%) / R3: #6,#1,#5 (64%) / R4: #7,#8 (65%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#1,#5 (64%) / R4: #7,#8 (65%) / R5: #6,#7,#4 (56%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #7,#8 (65%) / R5: #6,#7,#4 (56%) / R6: #8,#5,#2 (67%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #6,#7,#4 (56%) / R6: #8,#5,#2 (67%) / R7: #8,#7,#4 (58%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #6,#1,#5 (64%) / R4: #7,#8 (65%) / R5: #6,#7,#4 (56%) / R6: #8,#5,#2 (67%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #7,#8 (65%) / R5: #6,#7,#4 (56%) / R6: #8,#5,#2 (67%) / R7: #8,#7,#4 (58%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AMERICAN OF COURSEAS ONE DOESBEAUTRIZBINATIONALBLOWN AWAY
BRAHMASTRABREEZY DANCEBROWN LIQUOR MANCAN'T ARGUE THATCENTSOFWANDER
CHIZZYCOLE'S VALENTINECOLLECTORATECRIME LORDDIALED INNA
DR JACK FLYERDROPKICK MURPHYEASY FASTEL ARRACADASEURCOOL
GAMBIGENERAL GINNYGOLDEN BANDITGORDAGREATDAYFORHOCKEY
HALO NASHRYHAVE A HAPPYHEART BEATS TRUEHIDDEN FAVORHONESTLY
INTERVALIT'S YESENIAITZA KITTYJOHNNYFRENCHFRIJUBA'S NOTION
LA MISTERIOSALAMPORGHINILAW OF THE JUNGLELE GRIFFONLEGACY TRAIL
LUCKY PHOENIXMARMARAMARY MCGEEMAZARNMELLY B. GOOD
MI AMOREMIKA'S WAYMISS M MMONSERRATE O'SPASTA SALAD RHONDA
PURE PANICQUISTMERRIZZROBERT LEEROSE'S PEPINO
SHIPSHEWANASLUSH FUNDSNOOKIE JONESSOLOMONS GOLDSPIRIT TO INSPIRE
STANDARD OF PROOFSUDDEN SHIFTSUMMERSATTHESHORESUPER PACHISURPRISE D' ORO
SWEET TALIATHE SHOE LADYTICKET TO PARADISETIPTOETAPPINTODO FINO
VINGATIVAX GENEZENA CATZENOVIA

 


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