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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mahoning Valley, November 3, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mahoning Valley — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 63 graded races at Mahoning Valley, 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-29.

0%12%25%37%50%Our top pick: 39.7% from 63 racesOur top pick39.7%Morning-line favourite: 34.9% from 63 racesMorning-line favourite34.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick39.7%63
Morning-line favourite34.9%63
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $31,800
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Lluvia Fuerte (8/5)
Place:5Nina From Pasadena (4/1)
Show:6Baroness (5/1)
Other contenders:2Kellykoz (5/2), 3Captain Windy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Ohio Girl (15/1), 1Rags To Ruby (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452637
🎯 Longshots: 4256371
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,400
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Redacted (2/1)
Place:5Distant Galaxy (3/1)
Show:2Lil Trick (5/2)
Other contenders:3Call Shadd (4/1), 1Scaredy Catness (6/1)
Rest of field:4A Cab On The Rocks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652314
🎯 Longshots: 652314
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Cool Couple (5/2)
Place:5Controller (7/2)
Show:2K Kid (3/1)
Other contenders:4Heza Pistol (5/1), 1Knock Wood (6/1)
Rest of field:3Wetzel (10/1), 7Finally Friday (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625417
🎯 Longshots: 6257341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,400
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Siofra (3/1)
Place:5Secret Caller (4/1)
Show:7Shakeurskinnylegs (7/2)
Other contenders:6Amy's Star (6/1), 4Kozy Night (10/1), 3Tale Of The Lyon (8/1)
Rest of field:8Come On Arlene (12/1), 10Go Girl (8/1), 1Cause Of Love (20/1), 2Mystical Mobil (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 957643
🎯 Longshots: 49356178102
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Cannon (7/2)
Place:7Wise Words (9/2)
Show:4Nantucket (8/1)
Other contenders:5Have A Cigar (10/1), 3Twist 'n Twirl (5/1), 1Keen Surge (20/1), 11Wings Of God (10/1)
Rest of field:2Bandolero (6/1), 9Good Stuff (8/1), 10Lucky Destiny (12/1), 8Lobo Salvaje (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 674352
🎯 Longshots: 4561110971823
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4El Guty (5/2)
Place:6Strike Appeal (2/1)
Show:3Coalminer's Kitten (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mystic Power (6/1), 2Harbour Bridge (8/1), 8Fast Talkin Man (10/1)
Rest of field:7Sailor's Chance (15/1), 5Majestic Frontier (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463128
🎯 Longshots: 46327815
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:5Catpuccino (5/2)
Place:1Vesper Martini (3/1)
Show:7Bokeh (7/2)
Other contenders:4O. G. Moondancer (5/1), 3Dollar Dance (8/1)
Rest of field:2Power Vision (8/1), 6Double Sandy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5371426
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Kozem (5/2)
Place:6Lady Riley (7/2)
Show:2State Charmer (3/1)
Other contenders:1O Shaughesey (6/1), 3First Hill (5/1)
Rest of field:7My Maybelenne (8/1), 4Divine Fashion (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 562137
🎯 Longshots: 5264173
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mahoning Valley — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 63 graded races at Mahoning Valley, 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-29.

0%13%27%40%54%Our top pick: 42.9% from 63 racesOur top pick42.9%Morning-line favourite: 34.9% from 63 racesMorning-line favourite34.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick42.9%63
Morning-line favourite34.9%63
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $31,800
Win:4Lluvia Fuerte (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -37%
Place:6Baroness (5/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +64%
Show:5Nina From Pasadena (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:2Kellykoz (5/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -65%, 3Captain Windy (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:7Ohio Girl (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -35%, 1Rags To Ruby (20/1) 1% · fair 69-1 underlay -71%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lluvia Fuerte — 28.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Lluvia Fuerte28.1% ◀Baroness — 24.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Baroness24.7%Nina From Pasadena — 21.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Nina From Pasadena21.2%Kellykoz — 12.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Kellykoz12.3%Captain Windy — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Captain Windy8.1%Ohio Girl — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Ohio Girl4.2%Rags To Ruby — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Rags To Ruby1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lluvia Fuerte28.1%1.6/1
Baroness24.7%5/1
Nina From Pasadena21.2%4/1
Kellykoz12.3%2.5/1
Captain Windy8.1%8/1
Ohio Girl4.2%15/1
Rags To Ruby1.4%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLluvia Fuerte: model 28.1% vs market 30.6% (-2.4 points)Lluvia Fuerte-2.4Baroness: model 24.7% vs market 13.2% (+11.5 points)Baroness+11.5Nina From Pasadena: model 21.2% vs market 15.9% (+5.3 points)Nina From Pasadena+5.3Kellykoz: model 12.3% vs market 22.7% (-10.4 points)Kellykoz-10.4Captain Windy: model 8.1% vs market 8.8% (-0.8 points)Captain Windy-0.8Ohio Girl: model 4.2% vs market 5.0% (-0.8 points)Ohio Girl-0.8Rags To Ruby: model 1.4% vs market 3.8% (-2.4 points)Rags To Ruby-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lluvia Fuerte28.1%30.6%-2.4
Baroness24.7%13.2%+11.5
Nina From Pasadena21.2%15.9%+5.3
Kellykoz12.3%22.7%-10.4
Captain Windy8.1%8.8%-0.8
Ohio Girl4.2%5.0%-0.8
Rags To Ruby1.4%3.8%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 465237
🎯 Longshots: 4256371
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,400
Win:6Redacted (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:5Distant Galaxy (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:3Call Shadd (4/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:2Lil Trick (5/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -53%, 1Scaredy Catness (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Rest of field:4A Cab On The Rocks (20/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -65%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Redacted — 27.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Redacted27.4% ◀Distant Galaxy — 23.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Distant Galaxy23.7%Call Shadd — 19.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Call Shadd19.3%Lil Trick — 15.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Lil Trick15.9%Scaredy Catness — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Scaredy Catness11.9%A Cab On The Rocks — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1A Cab On The Rocks1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Redacted27.4%2/1
Distant Galaxy23.7%3/1
Call Shadd19.3%4/1
Lil Trick15.9%2.5/1
Scaredy Catness11.9%6/1
A Cab On The Rocks1.7%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRedacted: model 27.4% vs market 26.5% (+1.0 points)Redacted+1.0Distant Galaxy: model 23.7% vs market 19.8% (+3.9 points)Distant Galaxy+3.9Call Shadd: model 19.3% vs market 15.9% (+3.4 points)Call Shadd+3.4Lil Trick: model 15.9% vs market 22.7% (-6.8 points)Lil Trick-6.8Scaredy Catness: model 11.9% vs market 11.3% (+0.6 points)Scaredy Catness+0.6A Cab On The Rocks: model 1.7% vs market 3.8% (-2.1 points)A Cab On The Rocks-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Redacted27.4%26.5%+1.0
Distant Galaxy23.7%19.8%+3.9
Call Shadd19.3%15.9%+3.4
Lil Trick15.9%22.7%-6.8
Scaredy Catness11.9%11.3%+0.6
A Cab On The Rocks1.7%3.8%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 652314
🎯 Longshots: 652314
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:2K Kid (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:5Controller (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:6Cool Couple (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:4Heza Pistol (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -26%, 1Knock Wood (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3Wetzel (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 7Finally Friday (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -29%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

K Kid — 23.2% win probability, morning line 3/1K Kid23.2% ◀Controller — 22.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Controller22.2%Cool Couple — 16.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Cool Couple16.6%Heza Pistol — 12.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Heza Pistol12.9%Knock Wood — 8.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Knock Wood8.8%Wetzel — 8.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Wetzel8.2%Finally Friday — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Finally Friday8.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
K Kid23.2%3/1
Controller22.2%3.5/1
Cool Couple16.6%2.5/1
Heza Pistol12.9%5/1
Knock Wood8.8%6/1
Wetzel8.2%10/1
Finally Friday8.2%8/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherK Kid: model 23.2% vs market 19.7% (+3.5 points)K Kid+3.5Controller: model 22.2% vs market 17.5% (+4.7 points)Controller+4.7Cool Couple: model 16.6% vs market 22.5% (-5.9 points)Cool Couple-5.9Heza Pistol: model 12.9% vs market 13.1% (-0.2 points)Heza Pistol-0.2Knock Wood: model 8.8% vs market 11.3% (-2.5 points)Knock Wood-2.5Wetzel: model 8.2% vs market 7.2% (+1.0 points)Wetzel+1.0Finally Friday: model 8.2% vs market 8.8% (-0.6 points)Finally Friday-0.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
K Kid23.2%19.7%+3.5
Controller22.2%17.5%+4.7
Cool Couple16.6%22.5%-5.9
Heza Pistol12.9%13.1%-0.2
Knock Wood8.8%11.3%-2.5
Wetzel8.2%7.2%+1.0
Finally Friday8.2%8.8%-0.6
🌧️ Off-track: 256417
🎯 Longshots: 6257341
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,400
Win:9Siofra (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Place:5Secret Caller (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -28%
Show:6Amy's Star (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:7Shakeurskinnylegs (7/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -54%, 3Tale Of The Lyon (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 4Kozy Night (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:10Go Girl (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -52%, 1Cause Of Love (20/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 8Come On Arlene (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%, 2Mystical Mobil (20/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -59%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Siofra — 21.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Siofra21.1% ◀Secret Caller — 15.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Secret Caller15.2%Amy'S Star — 12.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Amy'S Star12.7%Shakeurskinnylegs — 11.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Shakeurskinnylegs11.6%Tale Of The Lyon — 10.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Tale Of The Lyon10.7%Kozy Night — 10.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Kozy Night10.1%Go Girl — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Go Girl5.6%Cause Of Love — 5.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Cause Of Love5.6%Come On Arlene — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Come On Arlene5.3%Mystical Mobil — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Mystical Mobil2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Siofra21.1%3/1
Secret Caller15.2%4/1
Amy'S Star12.7%6/1
Shakeurskinnylegs11.6%3.5/1
Tale Of The Lyon10.7%8/1
Kozy Night10.1%10/1
Go Girl5.6%8/1
Cause Of Love5.6%20/1
Come On Arlene5.3%12/1
Mystical Mobil2.0%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSiofra: model 21.1% vs market 19.2% (+1.9 points)Siofra+1.9Secret Caller: model 15.2% vs market 15.4% (-0.1 points)Secret Caller-0.1Amy'S Star: model 12.7% vs market 11.0% (+1.7 points)Amy'S Star+1.7Shakeurskinnylegs: model 11.6% vs market 17.1% (-5.5 points)Shakeurskinnylegs-5.5Tale Of The Lyon: model 10.7% vs market 8.5% (+2.2 points)Tale Of The Lyon+2.2Kozy Night: model 10.1% vs market 7.0% (+3.1 points)Kozy Night+3.1Go Girl: model 5.6% vs market 8.5% (-2.9 points)Go Girl-2.9Cause Of Love: model 5.6% vs market 3.7% (+1.9 points)Cause Of Love+1.9Come On Arlene: model 5.3% vs market 5.9% (-0.6 points)Come On Arlene-0.6Mystical Mobil: model 2.0% vs market 3.7% (-1.6 points)Mystical Mobil-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Siofra21.1%19.2%+1.9
Secret Caller15.2%15.4%-0.1
Amy'S Star12.7%11.0%+1.7
Shakeurskinnylegs11.6%17.1%-5.5
Tale Of The Lyon10.7%8.5%+2.2
Kozy Night10.1%7.0%+3.1
Go Girl5.6%8.5%-2.9
Cause Of Love5.6%3.7%+1.9
Come On Arlene5.3%5.9%-0.6
Mystical Mobil2.0%3.7%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 957634
🎯 Longshots: 49356178102
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,800
Win:6Cannon (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:7Wise Words (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:4Nantucket (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Other contenders:5Have A Cigar (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 9Good Stuff (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 10Lucky Destiny (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3Twist 'n Twirl (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -63%
Rest of field:2Bandolero (6/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -57%, 1Keen Surge (20/1) 7% · fair 14-1 overlay +42%, 11Wings Of God (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 8Lobo Salvaje (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -45%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cannon — 21.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Cannon21.5% ◀Wise Words — 17.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Wise Words17.9%Nantucket — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Nantucket8.9%Have A Cigar — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Have A Cigar7.7%Good Stuff — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Good Stuff7.6%Lucky Destiny — 7.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Lucky Destiny7.0%Twist 'N Twirl — 6.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Twist 'N Twirl6.8%Bandolero — 6.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Bandolero6.7%Keen Surge — 6.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Keen Surge6.6%Wings Of God — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Wings Of God5.7%Lobo Salvaje — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Lobo Salvaje3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cannon21.5%3.5/1
Wise Words17.9%4.5/1
Nantucket8.9%8/1
Have A Cigar7.7%10/1
Good Stuff7.6%8/1
Lucky Destiny7.0%12/1
Twist 'N Twirl6.8%5/1
Bandolero6.7%6/1
Keen Surge6.6%20/1
Wings Of God5.7%10/1
Lobo Salvaje3.5%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCannon: model 21.5% vs market 17.0% (+4.5 points)Cannon+4.5Wise Words: model 17.9% vs market 13.9% (+4.0 points)Wise Words+4.0Nantucket: model 8.9% vs market 8.5% (+0.3 points)Nantucket+0.3Have A Cigar: model 7.7% vs market 7.0% (+0.7 points)Have A Cigar+0.7Good Stuff: model 7.6% vs market 8.5% (-0.9 points)Good Stuff-0.9Lucky Destiny: model 7.0% vs market 5.9% (+1.1 points)Lucky Destiny+1.1Twist 'N Twirl: model 6.8% vs market 12.8% (-6.0 points)Twist 'N Twirl-6.0Bandolero: model 6.7% vs market 10.9% (-4.3 points)Bandolero-4.3Keen Surge: model 6.6% vs market 3.6% (+3.0 points)Keen Surge+3.0Wings Of God: model 5.7% vs market 7.0% (-1.2 points)Wings Of God-1.2Lobo Salvaje: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.2 points)Lobo Salvaje-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cannon21.5%17.0%+4.5
Wise Words17.9%13.9%+4.0
Nantucket8.9%8.5%+0.3
Have A Cigar7.7%7.0%+0.7
Good Stuff7.6%8.5%-0.9
Lucky Destiny7.0%5.9%+1.1
Twist 'N Twirl6.8%12.8%-6.0
Bandolero6.7%10.9%-4.3
Keen Surge6.6%3.6%+3.0
Wings Of God5.7%7.0%-1.2
Lobo Salvaje3.5%4.8%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 673249
🎯 Longshots: 4561110971823
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4El Guty (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:3Coalminer's Kitten (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Strike Appeal (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -60%
Other contenders:1Mystic Power (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 2Harbour Bridge (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -26%, 8Fast Talkin Man (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -53%
Rest of field:7Sailor's Chance (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%, 5Majestic Frontier (12/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -70%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

El Guty — 32.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1El Guty32.7% ◀Coalminer'S Kitten — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Coalminer'S Kitten20.4%Strike Appeal — 16.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Strike Appeal16.5%Mystic Power — 11.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Mystic Power11.5%Harbour Bridge — 8.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Harbour Bridge8.4%Fast Talkin Man — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Fast Talkin Man4.5%Sailor'S Chance — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Sailor'S Chance3.5%Majestic Frontier — 2.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Majestic Frontier2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
El Guty32.7%2.5/1
Coalminer'S Kitten20.4%4.5/1
Strike Appeal16.5%2/1
Mystic Power11.5%6/1
Harbour Bridge8.4%8/1
Fast Talkin Man4.5%10/1
Sailor'S Chance3.5%15/1
Majestic Frontier2.5%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEl Guty: model 32.7% vs market 22.2% (+10.4 points)El Guty+10.4Coalminer'S Kitten: model 20.4% vs market 14.1% (+6.2 points)Coalminer'S Kitten+6.2Strike Appeal: model 16.5% vs market 25.9% (-9.4 points)Strike Appeal-9.4Mystic Power: model 11.5% vs market 11.1% (+0.4 points)Mystic Power+0.4Harbour Bridge: model 8.4% vs market 8.6% (-0.2 points)Harbour Bridge-0.2Fast Talkin Man: model 4.5% vs market 7.1% (-2.6 points)Fast Talkin Man-2.6Sailor'S Chance: model 3.5% vs market 4.9% (-1.3 points)Sailor'S Chance-1.3Majestic Frontier: model 2.5% vs market 6.0% (-3.5 points)Majestic Frontier-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
El Guty32.7%22.2%+10.4
Coalminer'S Kitten20.4%14.1%+6.2
Strike Appeal16.5%25.9%-9.4
Mystic Power11.5%11.1%+0.4
Harbour Bridge8.4%8.6%-0.2
Fast Talkin Man4.5%7.1%-2.6
Sailor'S Chance3.5%4.9%-1.3
Majestic Frontier2.5%6.0%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 463128
🎯 Longshots: 46327815
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:7Bokeh (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:1Vesper Martini (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:5Catpuccino (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -37%
Other contenders:4O. G. Moondancer (5/1) 17% · fair 9-2, 3Dollar Dance (8/1) 11% · fair 15-2
Rest of field:2Power Vision (8/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -60%, 6Double Sandy (8/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -76%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bokeh — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bokeh21.7% ◀Vesper Martini — 21.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Vesper Martini21.6%Catpuccino — 20.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Catpuccino20.0%O. G. Moondancer — 17.5% win probability, morning line 5/1O. G. Moondancer17.5%Dollar Dance — 11.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Dollar Dance11.5%Power Vision — 4.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Power Vision4.7%Double Sandy — 2.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Double Sandy2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bokeh21.7%3.5/1
Vesper Martini21.6%3/1
Catpuccino20.0%2.5/1
O. G. Moondancer17.5%5/1
Dollar Dance11.5%8/1
Power Vision4.7%8/1
Double Sandy2.9%8/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBokeh: model 21.7% vs market 17.7% (+4.1 points)Bokeh+4.1Vesper Martini: model 21.6% vs market 19.9% (+1.8 points)Vesper Martini+1.8Catpuccino: model 20.0% vs market 22.7% (-2.7 points)Catpuccino-2.7O. G. Moondancer: model 17.5% vs market 13.2% (+4.2 points)O. G. Moondancer+4.2Dollar Dance: model 11.5% vs market 8.8% (+2.7 points)Dollar Dance+2.7Power Vision: model 4.7% vs market 8.8% (-4.1 points)Power Vision-4.1Double Sandy: model 2.9% vs market 8.8% (-5.9 points)Double Sandy-5.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bokeh21.7%17.7%+4.1
Vesper Martini21.6%19.9%+1.8
Catpuccino20.0%22.7%-2.7
O. G. Moondancer17.5%13.2%+4.2
Dollar Dance11.5%8.8%+2.7
Power Vision4.7%8.8%-4.1
Double Sandy2.9%8.8%-5.9
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5371426
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:5Kozem (5/2) 40% · fair 3-2 overlay +66%
Place:2State Charmer (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Show:6Lady Riley (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:1O Shaughesey (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 3First Hill (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -53%
Rest of field:7My Maybelenne (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 4Divine Fashion (10/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -55%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Kozem — 39.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Kozem39.9% ◀State Charmer — 16.2% win probability, morning line 3/1State Charmer16.2%Lady Riley — 15.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lady Riley15.0%O Shaughesey — 11.3% win probability, morning line 6/1O Shaughesey11.3%First Hill — 8.6% win probability, morning line 5/1First Hill8.6%My Maybelenne — 4.6% win probability, morning line 8/1My Maybelenne4.6%Divine Fashion — 4.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Divine Fashion4.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Kozem39.9%2.5/1
State Charmer16.2%3/1
Lady Riley15.0%3.5/1
O Shaughesey11.3%6/1
First Hill8.6%5/1
My Maybelenne4.6%8/1
Divine Fashion4.3%10/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKozem: model 39.9% vs market 22.5% (+17.4 points)Kozem+17.4State Charmer: model 16.2% vs market 19.7% (-3.4 points)State Charmer-3.4Lady Riley: model 15.0% vs market 17.5% (-2.5 points)Lady Riley-2.5O Shaughesey: model 11.3% vs market 11.3% (+0.0 points)O Shaughesey+0.0First Hill: model 8.6% vs market 13.1% (-4.5 points)First Hill-4.5My Maybelenne: model 4.6% vs market 8.8% (-4.1 points)My Maybelenne-4.1Divine Fashion: model 4.3% vs market 7.2% (-2.9 points)Divine Fashion-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Kozem39.9%22.5%+17.4
State Charmer16.2%19.7%-3.4
Lady Riley15.0%17.5%-2.5
O Shaughesey11.3%11.3%+0.0
First Hill8.6%13.1%-4.5
My Maybelenne4.6%8.8%-4.1
Divine Fashion4.3%7.2%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 526317
🎯 Longshots: 5264173
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Mahoning Valley — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 135 graded races at Mahoning Valley, 2026-03-30 to 2026-10-29.

0%11%23%34%45%Our top pick: 36.3% from 135 racesOur top pick36.3%Morning-line favourite: 34.1% from 135 racesMorning-line favourite34.1%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick36.3%135
Morning-line favourite34.1%135
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $31,800
Win:4Lluvia Fuerte (8/5)
Place:5Nina From Pasadena (4/1)
Show:2Kellykoz (5/2)
Other contenders:6Baroness (5/1), 3Captain Windy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Ohio Girl (15/1), 1Rags To Ruby (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425637
🎯 Longshots: 4256371
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,400
Win:6Redacted (2/1)
Place:2Lil Trick (5/2)
Show:3Call Shadd (4/1)
Other contenders:5Distant Galaxy (3/1), 1Scaredy Catness (6/1)
Rest of field:4A Cab On The Rocks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625314
🎯 Longshots: 652314
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:5Controller (7/2)
Place:6Cool Couple (5/2)
Show:2K Kid (3/1)
Other contenders:4Heza Pistol (5/1), 7Finally Friday (8/1)
Rest of field:1Knock Wood (6/1), 3Wetzel (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 652417
🎯 Longshots: 6257341
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,400
Win:9Siofra (3/1)
Place:7Shakeurskinnylegs (7/2)
Show:6Amy's Star (6/1)
Other contenders:5Secret Caller (4/1), 4Kozy Night (10/1), 3Tale Of The Lyon (8/1)
Rest of field:10Go Girl (8/1), 8Come On Arlene (12/1), 1Cause Of Love (20/1), 2Mystical Mobil (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 975643
🎯 Longshots: 49356178102
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,800
Win:6Cannon (7/2)
Place:7Wise Words (9/2)
Show:11Wings Of God (10/1)
Other contenders:5Have A Cigar (10/1), 4Nantucket (8/1), 3Twist 'n Twirl (5/1), 9Good Stuff (8/1)
Rest of field:2Bandolero (6/1), 10Lucky Destiny (12/1), 1Keen Surge (20/1), 8Lobo Salvaje (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 673249
🎯 Longshots: 4561110971823
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #11, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4El Guty (5/2)
Place:6Strike Appeal (2/1)
Show:3Coalminer's Kitten (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mystic Power (6/1), 2Harbour Bridge (8/1), 8Fast Talkin Man (10/1)
Rest of field:7Sailor's Chance (15/1), 5Majestic Frontier (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463128
🎯 Longshots: 46327815
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:5Catpuccino (5/2)
Place:1Vesper Martini (3/1)
Show:7Bokeh (7/2)
Other contenders:3Dollar Dance (8/1), 4O. G. Moondancer (5/1)
Rest of field:2Power Vision (8/1), 6Double Sandy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5371426
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:5Kozem (5/2)
Place:2State Charmer (3/1)
Show:6Lady Riley (7/2)
Other contenders:1O Shaughesey (6/1), 3First Hill (5/1)
Rest of field:7My Maybelenne (8/1), 4Divine Fashion (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 526317
🎯 Longshots: 5264173
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #9 over #5 ($1 straight; box #9-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #4, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #7, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.36 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
44Kozy Night10/1—10.8%+18.4%0.46%$0.46
51Keen Surge ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—4.1%+-14.5%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.5%$0.46
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $31,800
Win:5Nina From Pasadena (4/1)
Place:4Lluvia Fuerte (8/5)
Show:2Kellykoz (5/2)
Other contenders:6Baroness (5/1), 3Captain Windy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Ohio Girl (15/1), 1Rags To Ruby (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425637
🎯 Longshots: 4256371
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,400
Win:6Redacted (2/1)
Place:2Lil Trick (5/2)
Show:1Scaredy Catness (6/1)
Other contenders:3Call Shadd (4/1), 5Distant Galaxy (3/1)
Rest of field:4A Cab On The Rocks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625314
🎯 Longshots: 652314
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:7Finally Friday (8/1)
Place:5Controller (7/2)
Show:4Heza Pistol (5/1)
Other contenders:6Cool Couple (5/2), 2K Kid (3/1)
Rest of field:1Knock Wood (6/1), 3Wetzel (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 564271
🎯 Longshots: 6257341
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,400
Win:9Siofra (3/1)
Place:4Kozy Night (10/1)
Show:5Secret Caller (4/1)
Other contenders:7Shakeurskinnylegs (7/2), 2Mystical Mobil (20/1), 6Amy's Star (6/1)
Rest of field:8Come On Arlene (12/1), 3Tale Of The Lyon (8/1), 10Go Girl (8/1), 1Cause Of Love (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 975463
🎯 Longshots: 49356178102
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,800
Win:6Cannon (7/2)
Place:4Nantucket (8/1)
Show:11Wings Of God (10/1)
Other contenders:7Wise Words (9/2), 3Twist 'n Twirl (5/1), 2Bandolero (6/1), 5Have A Cigar (10/1)
Rest of field:9Good Stuff (8/1), 10Lucky Destiny (12/1), 1Keen Surge (20/1), 8Lobo Salvaje (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6734211
🎯 Longshots: 4561110971823
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #11, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4El Guty (5/2)
Place:3Coalminer's Kitten (9/2)
Show:6Strike Appeal (2/1)
Other contenders:1Mystic Power (6/1), 8Fast Talkin Man (10/1), 2Harbour Bridge (8/1)
Rest of field:7Sailor's Chance (15/1), 5Majestic Frontier (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 643128
🎯 Longshots: 46327815
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:5Catpuccino (5/2)
Place:1Vesper Martini (3/1)
Show:7Bokeh (7/2)
Other contenders:4O. G. Moondancer (5/1), 3Dollar Dance (8/1)
Rest of field:2Power Vision (8/1), 6Double Sandy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5371426
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:5Kozem (5/2)
Place:2State Charmer (3/1)
Show:3First Hill (5/1)
Other contenders:6Lady Riley (7/2), 1O Shaughesey (6/1)
Rest of field:7My Maybelenne (8/1), 4Divine Fashion (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 526317
🎯 Longshots: 5264173
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $31,800
Win:4Lluvia Fuerte (8/5)
Place:5Nina From Pasadena (4/1)
Show:2Kellykoz (5/2)
Other contenders:6Baroness (5/1), 3Captain Windy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Ohio Girl (15/1), 1Rags To Ruby (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 425637
🎯 Longshots: 4256371
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,400
Win:6Redacted (2/1)
Place:3Call Shadd (4/1)
Show:1Scaredy Catness (6/1)
Other contenders:2Lil Trick (5/2), 5Distant Galaxy (3/1)
Rest of field:4A Cab On The Rocks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625314
🎯 Longshots: 652314
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:6Cool Couple (5/2)
Place:5Controller (7/2)
Show:2K Kid (3/1)
Other contenders:4Heza Pistol (5/1), 7Finally Friday (8/1)
Rest of field:1Knock Wood (6/1), 3Wetzel (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625417
🎯 Longshots: 6257341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,400
Win:9Siofra (3/1)
Place:4Kozy Night (10/1)
Show:7Shakeurskinnylegs (7/2)
Other contenders:5Secret Caller (4/1), 6Amy's Star (6/1), 3Tale Of The Lyon (8/1)
Rest of field:1Cause Of Love (20/1), 10Go Girl (8/1), 8Come On Arlene (12/1), 2Mystical Mobil (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 975643
🎯 Longshots: 49356178102
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,800
Win:6Cannon (7/2)
Place:7Wise Words (9/2)
Show:3Twist 'n Twirl (5/1)
Other contenders:4Nantucket (8/1), 11Wings Of God (10/1), 2Bandolero (6/1), 5Have A Cigar (10/1)
Rest of field:1Keen Surge (20/1), 9Good Stuff (8/1), 10Lucky Destiny (12/1), 8Lobo Salvaje (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6734211
🎯 Longshots: 4561110971823
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4El Guty (5/2)
Place:6Strike Appeal (2/1)
Show:3Coalminer's Kitten (9/2)
Other contenders:1Mystic Power (6/1), 2Harbour Bridge (8/1), 8Fast Talkin Man (10/1)
Rest of field:7Sailor's Chance (15/1), 5Majestic Frontier (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463128
🎯 Longshots: 46327815
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:5Catpuccino (5/2)
Place:1Vesper Martini (3/1)
Show:7Bokeh (7/2)
Other contenders:4O. G. Moondancer (5/1), 3Dollar Dance (8/1)
Rest of field:2Power Vision (8/1), 6Double Sandy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5371426
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:5Kozem (5/2)
Place:2State Charmer (3/1)
Show:6Lady Riley (7/2)
Other contenders:1O Shaughesey (6/1), 4Divine Fashion (10/1)
Rest of field:3First Hill (5/1), 7My Maybelenne (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 526134
🎯 Longshots: 5264173
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#6,#5 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#3 (70%) / R3: #2,#5,#6 (62%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#5,#3 (70%) / R3: #2,#5,#6 (62%) / R4: #9,#5,#6 (49%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #6,#7,#4 (48%) / R6: #4,#3,#6 (70%) / R7: #7,#1,#5 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #4,#3,#6 (70%) / R7: #7,#1,#5 (63%) / R8: #5,#2,#6 (71%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#6,#5 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#3 (70%) / R3: #2,#5,#6 (62%) / R4: #9,#5,#6 (49%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #6,#7,#4 (48%) / R6: #4,#3,#6 (70%) / R7: #7,#1,#5 (63%) / R8: #5,#2,#6 (71%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A CAB ON THE ROCKSAMY'S STARBANDOLEROBARONESSBOKEH
CANNONCAPTAIN WINDYCATPUCCINOCAUSE OF LOVECOALMINER'S KITTEN
CONTROLLERCOOL COUPLEDISTANT GALAXYDIVINE FASHIONDOLLAR DANCE
EL GUTYFAST TALKIN MANFINALLY FRIDAYFIRST HILLGO GIRL
HARBOUR BRIDGEHAVE A CIGARHEZA PISTOLK KIDKEEN SURGE
KNOCK WOODKOZEMKOZY NIGHTLADY RILEYLIL TRICK
LOBO SALVAJELUCKY DESTINYMAJESTIC FRONTIERMY MAYBELENNEMYSTIC POWER
NANTUCKETNINA FROM PASADENAO SHAUGHESEYO. G. MOONDANCEROHIO GIRL
RAGS TO RUBYREDACTEDSAILOR'S CHANCESCAREDY CATNESSSECRET CALLER
SIOFRASTATE CHARMERSTRIKE APPEALTALE OF THE LYONTWIST 'N TWIRL
WETZELWINGS OF GODWISE WORDS

 


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