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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, November 5, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 323 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-03.

0%10%20%30%39%Our top pick: 31.6% from 323 racesOur top pick31.6%Morning-line favourite: 27.2% from 323 racesMorning-line favourite27.2%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.6%323
Morning-line favourite27.2%323
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $40,800
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Bourbon Curiosity (2/1)
Place:6Leo Springs (5/2)
Show:3Commander Storm (4/1)
Other contenders:5Heavenlyconveyance (7/2), 2Mister Banderas (6/1)
Rest of field:4Ga Mo Tak (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163524
🎯 Longshots: 164352
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Ekati Flatter (2/1)
Place:2Relentless Chick (5/2)
Show:1Momentario (7/2)
Other contenders:7Imperial Merlot (3/1), 5Secret Operation (15/1)
Rest of field:3Sugar Princess (12/1), 6Zoomaha (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 421753
🎯 Longshots: 4251376
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Mackadoo (2/1)
Place:2Justhappytobehere (7/2)
Show:7Nine Questions (7/2)
Other contenders:6Jailhouse Justice (5/1), 3Shiesty To Chase (5/1), 8Henry The Hank (5/1)
Rest of field:1For Mama (12/1), 5Looking Good Lewis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427638
🎯 Longshots: 74261385
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Aunt Leila's Sky (9/5)
Place:6Starry Eye Justice (5/2)
Show:1Over And Above (6/1)
Other contenders:3Luna Diva (8/1), 4Estrella Brillante (10/1), 7I'malittlethirsty (12/1)
Rest of field:2Jane Plain (12/1), 5Unbridled Sabbath (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 861347
🎯 Longshots: 83624157
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:2Joe The Tailor (2/1)
Place:6Neutron (9/2)
Show:3Countthecarats (5/1)
Other contenders:5Explosively (7/2), 7Morning Power (5/1)
Rest of field:4Versed (12/1), 1Huevos D'oro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256374
🎯 Longshots: 2465731
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Visual (5/2)
Place:5Officer Gambill (7/2)
Show:2Z's Fireball (6/1)
Other contenders:7Dotties Blue Money (5/1), 9Senor Justice (6/1), 8Lil Chance (8/1)
Rest of field:1Runaway Mike (10/1), 3Starspangled Louie (15/1), 6One More Show (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452798
🎯 Longshots: 485972136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Tarshea (7/5)
Place:8Sea Ride (5/1)
Show:6Nixon's Time (10/1)
Other contenders:3Channah Del Mar (8/1), 1Madelyn Attack (6/1), 7Wildest Problem (6/1)
Rest of field:4Silvertown (6/1), 5Caumsett (20/1), 9Deal'em And Weep (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 286174
🎯 Longshots: 263849175
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Audubon Bay (5/2)
Place:4Dream Fast (5/1)
Show:1Chisel (15/1)
Other contenders:2Standard Edition (6/1), 3Dewey Oxburger (4/1), 5Chabelo (8/1)
Rest of field:7Indy Kid (12/1), 6Concho's Prayer (15/1), 8Instinctually (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 942315
🎯 Longshots: 194573628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 231 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-11-03.

0%9%17%26%34%Our top pick: 27.3% from 231 racesOur top pick27.3%Morning-line favourite: 23.8% from 231 racesMorning-line favourite23.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick27.3%231
Morning-line favourite23.8%231
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $40,800
Win:1Bourbon Curiosity (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:6Leo Springs (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:5Heavenlyconveyance (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -39%
Other contenders:3Commander Storm (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -37%, 2Mister Banderas (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -27%
Rest of field:4Ga Mo Tak (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -44%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bourbon Curiosity — 27.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Bourbon Curiosity27.7% ◀Leo Springs — 27.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Leo Springs27.7%Heavenlyconveyance — 14.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Heavenlyconveyance14.8%Commander Storm — 13.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Commander Storm13.7%Mister Banderas — 10.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Mister Banderas10.9%Ga Mo Tak — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Ga Mo Tak5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bourbon Curiosity27.7%2/1
Leo Springs27.7%2.5/1
Heavenlyconveyance14.8%3.5/1
Commander Storm13.7%4/1
Mister Banderas10.9%6/1
Ga Mo Tak5.3%10/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBourbon Curiosity: model 27.7% vs market 26.1% (+1.6 points)Bourbon Curiosity+1.6Leo Springs: model 27.7% vs market 22.4% (+5.3 points)Leo Springs+5.3Heavenlyconveyance: model 14.8% vs market 17.4% (-2.7 points)Heavenlyconveyance-2.7Commander Storm: model 13.7% vs market 15.7% (-2.0 points)Commander Storm-2.0Mister Banderas: model 10.9% vs market 11.2% (-0.3 points)Mister Banderas-0.3Ga Mo Tak: model 5.3% vs market 7.1% (-1.8 points)Ga Mo Tak-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bourbon Curiosity27.7%26.1%+1.6
Leo Springs27.7%22.4%+5.3
Heavenlyconveyance14.8%17.4%-2.7
Commander Storm13.7%15.7%-2.0
Mister Banderas10.9%11.2%-0.3
Ga Mo Tak5.3%7.1%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 165324
🎯 Longshots: 164352
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:4Ekati Flatter (2/1) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:1Momentario (7/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:2Relentless Chick (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -36%
Other contenders:7Imperial Merlot (3/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -63%, 5Secret Operation (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2
Rest of field:3Sugar Princess (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59%, 6Zoomaha (12/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -63%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ekati Flatter — 35.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Ekati Flatter35.2% ◀Momentario — 21.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Momentario21.3%Relentless Chick — 20.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Relentless Chick20.5%Imperial Merlot — 10.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Imperial Merlot10.9%Secret Operation — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Secret Operation5.8%Sugar Princess — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Sugar Princess3.3%Zoomaha — 3.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Zoomaha3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ekati Flatter35.2%2/1
Momentario21.3%3.5/1
Relentless Chick20.5%2.5/1
Imperial Merlot10.9%3/1
Secret Operation5.8%15/1
Sugar Princess3.3%12/1
Zoomaha3.0%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEkati Flatter: model 35.2% vs market 25.5% (+9.7 points)Ekati Flatter+9.7Momentario: model 21.3% vs market 17.0% (+4.3 points)Momentario+4.3Relentless Chick: model 20.5% vs market 21.9% (-1.4 points)Relentless Chick-1.4Imperial Merlot: model 10.9% vs market 19.1% (-8.2 points)Imperial Merlot-8.2Secret Operation: model 5.8% vs market 4.8% (+1.0 points)Secret Operation+1.0Sugar Princess: model 3.3% vs market 5.9% (-2.6 points)Sugar Princess-2.6Zoomaha: model 3.0% vs market 5.9% (-2.9 points)Zoomaha-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ekati Flatter35.2%25.5%+9.7
Momentario21.3%17.0%+4.3
Relentless Chick20.5%21.9%-1.4
Imperial Merlot10.9%19.1%-8.2
Secret Operation5.8%4.8%+1.0
Sugar Princess3.3%5.9%-2.6
Zoomaha3.0%5.9%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 421736
🎯 Longshots: 4251376
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:2Justhappytobehere (7/2) 31% · fair 5-2 overlay +54%
Place:4Mackadoo (2/1) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -46%
Show:7Nine Questions (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:6Jailhouse Justice (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -29%, 3Shiesty To Chase (5/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -60%, 8Henry The Hank (5/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -75%
Rest of field:1For Mama (12/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -65%, 5Looking Good Lewis (20/1) 0% · fair 421-2 underlay -90%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Justhappytobehere — 30.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Justhappytobehere30.6% ◀Mackadoo — 21.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Mackadoo21.2%Nine Questions — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Nine Questions20.2%Jailhouse Justice — 12.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Jailhouse Justice12.5%Shiesty To Chase — 7.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Shiesty To Chase7.4%Henry The Hank — 4.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Henry The Hank4.8%For Mama — 2.8% win probability, morning line 12/1For Mama2.8%Looking Good Lewis — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Looking Good Lewis0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Justhappytobehere30.6%3.5/1
Mackadoo21.2%2/1
Nine Questions20.2%3.5/1
Jailhouse Justice12.5%5/1
Shiesty To Chase7.4%5/1
Henry The Hank4.8%5/1
For Mama2.8%12/1
Looking Good Lewis0.5%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJusthappytobehere: model 30.6% vs market 15.8% (+14.8 points)Justhappytobehere+14.8Mackadoo: model 21.2% vs market 23.8% (-2.6 points)Mackadoo-2.6Nine Questions: model 20.2% vs market 15.8% (+4.3 points)Nine Questions+4.3Jailhouse Justice: model 12.5% vs market 11.9% (+0.6 points)Jailhouse Justice+0.6Shiesty To Chase: model 7.4% vs market 11.9% (-4.5 points)Shiesty To Chase-4.5Henry The Hank: model 4.8% vs market 11.9% (-7.0 points)Henry The Hank-7.0For Mama: model 2.8% vs market 5.5% (-2.7 points)For Mama-2.7Looking Good Lewis: model 0.5% vs market 3.4% (-2.9 points)Looking Good Lewis-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Justhappytobehere30.6%15.8%+14.8
Mackadoo21.2%23.8%-2.6
Nine Questions20.2%15.8%+4.3
Jailhouse Justice12.5%11.9%+0.6
Shiesty To Chase7.4%11.9%-4.5
Henry The Hank4.8%11.9%-7.0
For Mama2.8%5.5%-2.7
Looking Good Lewis0.5%3.4%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 247638
🎯 Longshots: 74261385
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Aunt Leila's Sky (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -45%
Place:6Starry Eye Justice (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -32%
Show:1Over And Above (6/1) 19% · fair 4-1 overlay +45%
Other contenders:4Estrella Brillante (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 3Luna Diva (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 5Unbridled Sabbath (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:7I'malittlethirsty (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 2Jane Plain (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Aunt Leila'S Sky — 23.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Aunt Leila'S Sky23.5% ◀Starry Eye Justice — 21.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Starry Eye Justice21.4%Over And Above — 19.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Over And Above19.5%Estrella Brillante — 9.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Estrella Brillante9.7%Luna Diva — 9.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Luna Diva9.5%Unbridled Sabbath — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Unbridled Sabbath6.3%I'Malittlethirsty — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1I'Malittlethirsty6.1%Jane Plain — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Jane Plain4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Aunt Leila'S Sky23.5%1.8/1
Starry Eye Justice21.4%2.5/1
Over And Above19.5%6/1
Estrella Brillante9.7%10/1
Luna Diva9.5%8/1
Unbridled Sabbath6.3%12/1
I'Malittlethirsty6.1%12/1
Jane Plain4.0%12/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAunt Leila'S Sky: model 23.5% vs market 29.3% (-5.8 points)Aunt Leila'S Sky-5.8Starry Eye Justice: model 21.4% vs market 23.4% (-2.1 points)Starry Eye Justice-2.1Over And Above: model 19.5% vs market 11.7% (+7.8 points)Over And Above+7.8Estrella Brillante: model 9.7% vs market 7.5% (+2.2 points)Estrella Brillante+2.2Luna Diva: model 9.5% vs market 9.1% (+0.4 points)Luna Diva+0.4Unbridled Sabbath: model 6.3% vs market 6.3% (-0.0 points)Unbridled Sabbath-0.0I'Malittlethirsty: model 6.1% vs market 6.3% (-0.2 points)I'Malittlethirsty-0.2Jane Plain: model 4.0% vs market 6.3% (-2.3 points)Jane Plain-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Aunt Leila'S Sky23.5%29.3%-5.8
Starry Eye Justice21.4%23.4%-2.1
Over And Above19.5%11.7%+7.8
Estrella Brillante9.7%7.5%+2.2
Luna Diva9.5%9.1%+0.4
Unbridled Sabbath6.3%6.3%-0.0
I'Malittlethirsty6.1%6.3%-0.2
Jane Plain4.0%6.3%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 861345
🎯 Longshots: 83624157
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:2Joe The Tailor (2/1) 38% · fair 3-2
Place:3Countthecarats (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:6Neutron (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:5Explosively (7/2) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -55%, 7Morning Power (5/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -55%
Rest of field:4Versed (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 1Huevos D'oro (15/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -62%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Joe The Tailor — 38.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Joe The Tailor38.1% ◀Countthecarats — 17.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Countthecarats17.3%Neutron — 14.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Neutron14.9%Explosively — 11.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Explosively11.4%Morning Power — 8.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Morning Power8.3%Versed — 7.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Versed7.4%Huevos D'Oro — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Huevos D'Oro2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Joe The Tailor38.1%2/1
Countthecarats17.3%5/1
Neutron14.9%4.5/1
Explosively11.4%3.5/1
Morning Power8.3%5/1
Versed7.4%12/1
Huevos D'Oro2.5%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJoe The Tailor: model 38.1% vs market 27.5% (+10.6 points)Joe The Tailor+10.6Countthecarats: model 17.3% vs market 13.8% (+3.5 points)Countthecarats+3.5Neutron: model 14.9% vs market 15.0% (-0.1 points)Neutron-0.1Explosively: model 11.4% vs market 18.4% (-6.9 points)Explosively-6.9Morning Power: model 8.3% vs market 13.8% (-5.4 points)Morning Power-5.4Versed: model 7.4% vs market 6.4% (+1.0 points)Versed+1.0Huevos D'Oro: model 2.5% vs market 5.2% (-2.7 points)Huevos D'Oro-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Joe The Tailor38.1%27.5%+10.6
Countthecarats17.3%13.8%+3.5
Neutron14.9%15.0%-0.1
Explosively11.4%18.4%-6.9
Morning Power8.3%13.8%-5.4
Versed7.4%6.4%+1.0
Huevos D'Oro2.5%5.2%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 253674
🎯 Longshots: 2465731
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:4Visual (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:2Z's Fireball (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:5Officer Gambill (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:7Dotties Blue Money (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%, 8Lil Chance (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 1Runaway Mike (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:9Senor Justice (6/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -61%, 6One More Show (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -34%, 3Starspangled Louie (15/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -56%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Visual — 26.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Visual26.9% ◀Z'S Fireball — 16.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Z'S Fireball16.8%Officer Gambill — 14.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Officer Gambill14.9%Dotties Blue Money — 11.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Dotties Blue Money11.2%Lil Chance — 9.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Lil Chance9.6%Runaway Mike — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Runaway Mike7.4%Senor Justice — 6.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Senor Justice6.2%One More Show — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1One More Show4.2%Starspangled Louie — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Starspangled Louie2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Visual26.9%2.5/1
Z'S Fireball16.8%6/1
Officer Gambill14.9%3.5/1
Dotties Blue Money11.2%5/1
Lil Chance9.6%8/1
Runaway Mike7.4%10/1
Senor Justice6.2%6/1
One More Show4.2%15/1
Starspangled Louie2.8%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVisual: model 26.9% vs market 22.2% (+4.7 points)Visual+4.7Z'S Fireball: model 16.8% vs market 11.1% (+5.7 points)Z'S Fireball+5.7Officer Gambill: model 14.9% vs market 17.3% (-2.3 points)Officer Gambill-2.3Dotties Blue Money: model 11.2% vs market 12.9% (-1.8 points)Dotties Blue Money-1.8Lil Chance: model 9.6% vs market 8.6% (+1.0 points)Lil Chance+1.0Runaway Mike: model 7.4% vs market 7.1% (+0.3 points)Runaway Mike+0.3Senor Justice: model 6.2% vs market 11.1% (-4.9 points)Senor Justice-4.9One More Show: model 4.2% vs market 4.9% (-0.7 points)One More Show-0.7Starspangled Louie: model 2.8% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Starspangled Louie-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Visual26.9%22.2%+4.7
Z'S Fireball16.8%11.1%+5.7
Officer Gambill14.9%17.3%-2.3
Dotties Blue Money11.2%12.9%-1.8
Lil Chance9.6%8.6%+1.0
Runaway Mike7.4%7.1%+0.3
Senor Justice6.2%11.1%-4.9
One More Show4.2%4.9%-0.7
Starspangled Louie2.8%4.9%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 452789
🎯 Longshots: 485972136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:2Tarshea (7/5) 71% · fair 2-5 overlay +248%
Place:6Nixon's Time (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -27%
Show:8Sea Ride (5/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -73%
Other contenders:7Wildest Problem (6/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -70%, 3Channah Del Mar (8/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -66%, 1Madelyn Attack (6/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -82%
Rest of field:4Silvertown (6/1) 2% · fair 39-1 underlay -85%, 9Deal'em And Weep (20/1) 1% · fair 151-2 underlay -73%, 5Caumsett (20/1) 1% · fair 78-1 underlay -74%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tarshea — 71.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Tarshea71.3% ◀Nixon'S Time — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Nixon'S Time6.8%Sea Ride — 5.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Sea Ride5.1%Wildest Problem — 4.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Wildest Problem4.8%Channah Del Mar — 4.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Channah Del Mar4.0%Madelyn Attack — 2.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Madelyn Attack2.9%Silvertown — 2.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Silvertown2.5%Deal'Em And Weep — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Deal'Em And Weep1.3%Caumsett — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Caumsett1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tarshea71.3%1.4/1
Nixon'S Time6.8%10/1
Sea Ride5.1%5/1
Wildest Problem4.8%6/1
Channah Del Mar4.0%8/1
Madelyn Attack2.9%6/1
Silvertown2.5%6/1
Deal'Em And Weep1.3%20/1
Caumsett1.3%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTarshea: model 71.3% vs market 31.8% (+39.5 points)Tarshea+39.5Nixon'S Time: model 6.8% vs market 6.9% (-0.2 points)Nixon'S Time-0.2Sea Ride: model 5.1% vs market 12.7% (-7.6 points)Sea Ride-7.6Wildest Problem: model 4.8% vs market 10.9% (-6.1 points)Wildest Problem-6.1Channah Del Mar: model 4.0% vs market 8.5% (-4.4 points)Channah Del Mar-4.4Madelyn Attack: model 2.9% vs market 10.9% (-8.0 points)Madelyn Attack-8.0Silvertown: model 2.5% vs market 10.9% (-8.4 points)Silvertown-8.4Deal'Em And Weep: model 1.3% vs market 3.6% (-2.3 points)Deal'Em And Weep-2.3Caumsett: model 1.3% vs market 3.6% (-2.4 points)Caumsett-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tarshea71.3%31.8%+39.5
Nixon'S Time6.8%6.9%-0.2
Sea Ride5.1%12.7%-7.6
Wildest Problem4.8%10.9%-6.1
Channah Del Mar4.0%8.5%-4.4
Madelyn Attack2.9%10.9%-8.0
Silvertown2.5%10.9%-8.4
Deal'Em And Weep1.3%3.6%-2.3
Caumsett1.3%3.6%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 287143
🎯 Longshots: 263849175
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:9Audubon Bay (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:1Chisel (15/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +168%
Show:4Dream Fast (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:2Standard Edition (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2, 3Dewey Oxburger (4/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -55%, 5Chabelo (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:7Indy Kid (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 6Concho's Prayer (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -34%, 8Instinctually (8/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -69%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Audubon Bay — 23.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Audubon Bay23.1% ◀Chisel — 15.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Chisel15.1%Dream Fast — 15.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Dream Fast15.0%Standard Edition — 13.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Standard Edition13.7%Dewey Oxburger — 10.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Dewey Oxburger10.1%Chabelo — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Chabelo8.9%Indy Kid — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Indy Kid6.1%Concho'S Prayer — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Concho'S Prayer4.2%Instinctually — 3.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Instinctually3.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Audubon Bay23.1%2.5/1
Chisel15.1%15/1
Dream Fast15.0%5/1
Standard Edition13.7%6/1
Dewey Oxburger10.1%4/1
Chabelo8.9%8/1
Indy Kid6.1%12/1
Concho'S Prayer4.2%15/1
Instinctually3.8%8/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAudubon Bay: model 23.1% vs market 23.4% (-0.3 points)Audubon Bay-0.3Chisel: model 15.1% vs market 5.1% (+10.0 points)Chisel+10.0Dream Fast: model 15.0% vs market 13.7% (+1.4 points)Dream Fast+1.4Standard Edition: model 13.7% vs market 11.7% (+1.9 points)Standard Edition+1.9Dewey Oxburger: model 10.1% vs market 16.4% (-6.3 points)Dewey Oxburger-6.3Chabelo: model 8.9% vs market 9.1% (-0.2 points)Chabelo-0.2Indy Kid: model 6.1% vs market 6.3% (-0.2 points)Indy Kid-0.2Concho'S Prayer: model 4.2% vs market 5.1% (-0.9 points)Concho'S Prayer-0.9Instinctually: model 3.8% vs market 9.1% (-5.3 points)Instinctually-5.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Audubon Bay23.1%23.4%-0.3
Chisel15.1%5.1%+10.0
Dream Fast15.0%13.7%+1.4
Standard Edition13.7%11.7%+1.9
Dewey Oxburger10.1%16.4%-6.3
Chabelo8.9%9.1%-0.2
Indy Kid6.1%6.3%-0.2
Concho'S Prayer4.2%5.1%-0.9
Instinctually3.8%9.1%-5.3
🌧️ Off-track: 943251
🎯 Longshots: 194573628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $40,800
Win:1Bourbon Curiosity (2/1)
Place:6Leo Springs (5/2)
Show:5Heavenlyconveyance (7/2)
Other contenders:3Commander Storm (4/1), 2Mister Banderas (6/1)
Rest of field:4Ga Mo Tak (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 165324
🎯 Longshots: 164352
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:4Ekati Flatter (2/1)
Place:2Relentless Chick (5/2)
Show:1Momentario (7/2)
Other contenders:7Imperial Merlot (3/1), 3Sugar Princess (12/1)
Rest of field:5Secret Operation (15/1), 6Zoomaha (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 421736
🎯 Longshots: 4251376
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Mackadoo (2/1)
Place:2Justhappytobehere (7/2)
Show:7Nine Questions (7/2)
Other contenders:6Jailhouse Justice (5/1), 3Shiesty To Chase (5/1), 8Henry The Hank (5/1)
Rest of field:1For Mama (12/1), 5Looking Good Lewis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427638
🎯 Longshots: 74261385
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Aunt Leila's Sky (9/5)
Place:6Starry Eye Justice (5/2)
Show:1Over And Above (6/1)
Other contenders:3Luna Diva (8/1), 4Estrella Brillante (10/1), 2Jane Plain (12/1)
Rest of field:7I'malittlethirsty (12/1), 5Unbridled Sabbath (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 861342
🎯 Longshots: 83624157
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:2Joe The Tailor (2/1)
Place:5Explosively (7/2)
Show:6Neutron (9/2)
Other contenders:7Morning Power (5/1), 3Countthecarats (5/1)
Rest of field:4Versed (12/1), 1Huevos D'oro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256734
🎯 Longshots: 2465731
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:4Visual (5/2)
Place:2Z's Fireball (6/1)
Show:5Officer Gambill (7/2)
Other contenders:9Senor Justice (6/1), 7Dotties Blue Money (5/1), 8Lil Chance (8/1)
Rest of field:1Runaway Mike (10/1), 3Starspangled Louie (15/1), 6One More Show (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452798
🎯 Longshots: 485972136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:2Tarshea (7/5)
Place:8Sea Ride (5/1)
Show:6Nixon's Time (10/1)
Other contenders:4Silvertown (6/1), 3Channah Del Mar (8/1), 1Madelyn Attack (6/1)
Rest of field:7Wildest Problem (6/1), 5Caumsett (20/1), 9Deal'em And Weep (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 284173
🎯 Longshots: 263849175
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:9Audubon Bay (5/2)
Place:4Dream Fast (5/1)
Show:1Chisel (15/1)
Other contenders:3Dewey Oxburger (4/1), 2Standard Edition (6/1), 7Indy Kid (12/1)
Rest of field:5Chabelo (8/1), 6Concho's Prayer (15/1), 8Instinctually (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 934251
🎯 Longshots: 194573628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #8 over #6 ($1 straight; box #8-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #5, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #8 ($1 straight; box #2-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #8, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #4 ($1 straight; box #9-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #4, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
81Chisel15/1—12.5%+99.1%1.65%$1.65
TOTAL across 1 play:1.7%$1.65
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $40,800
Win:1Bourbon Curiosity (2/1)
Place:6Leo Springs (5/2)
Show:3Commander Storm (4/1)
Other contenders:5Heavenlyconveyance (7/2), 2Mister Banderas (6/1)
Rest of field:4Ga Mo Tak (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163524
🎯 Longshots: 164352
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:4Ekati Flatter (2/1)
Place:2Relentless Chick (5/2)
Show:1Momentario (7/2)
Other contenders:7Imperial Merlot (3/1), 6Zoomaha (12/1)
Rest of field:5Secret Operation (15/1), 3Sugar Princess (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 421763
🎯 Longshots: 4251376
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Mackadoo (2/1)
Place:2Justhappytobehere (7/2)
Show:7Nine Questions (7/2)
Other contenders:3Shiesty To Chase (5/1), 6Jailhouse Justice (5/1), 8Henry The Hank (5/1)
Rest of field:1For Mama (12/1), 5Looking Good Lewis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427368
🎯 Longshots: 74261385
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:6Starry Eye Justice (5/2)
Place:8Aunt Leila's Sky (9/5)
Show:2Jane Plain (12/1)
Other contenders:1Over And Above (6/1), 3Luna Diva (8/1), 4Estrella Brillante (10/1)
Rest of field:5Unbridled Sabbath (12/1), 7I'malittlethirsty (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 861234
🎯 Longshots: 83624157
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:2Joe The Tailor (2/1)
Place:6Neutron (9/2)
Show:7Morning Power (5/1)
Other contenders:5Explosively (7/2), 3Countthecarats (5/1)
Rest of field:4Versed (12/1), 1Huevos D'oro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256734
🎯 Longshots: 2465731
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:4Visual (5/2)
Place:7Dotties Blue Money (5/1)
Show:2Z's Fireball (6/1)
Other contenders:5Officer Gambill (7/2), 9Senor Justice (6/1), 8Lil Chance (8/1)
Rest of field:1Runaway Mike (10/1), 6One More Show (15/1), 3Starspangled Louie (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 457298
🎯 Longshots: 485972136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:2Tarshea (7/5)
Place:8Sea Ride (5/1)
Show:1Madelyn Attack (6/1)
Other contenders:3Channah Del Mar (8/1), 4Silvertown (6/1), 6Nixon's Time (10/1)
Rest of field:7Wildest Problem (6/1), 5Caumsett (20/1), 9Deal'em And Weep (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 281473
🎯 Longshots: 263849175
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:9Audubon Bay (5/2)
Place:1Chisel (15/1)
Show:3Dewey Oxburger (4/1)
Other contenders:4Dream Fast (5/1), 7Indy Kid (12/1), 2Standard Edition (6/1)
Rest of field:6Concho's Prayer (15/1), 5Chabelo (8/1), 8Instinctually (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 934271
🎯 Longshots: 194573628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $40,800
Win:1Bourbon Curiosity (2/1)
Place:6Leo Springs (5/2)
Show:3Commander Storm (4/1)
Other contenders:5Heavenlyconveyance (7/2), 2Mister Banderas (6/1)
Rest of field:4Ga Mo Tak (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163524
🎯 Longshots: 164352
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:4Ekati Flatter (2/1)
Place:1Momentario (7/2)
Show:2Relentless Chick (5/2)
Other contenders:7Imperial Merlot (3/1), 3Sugar Princess (12/1)
Rest of field:5Secret Operation (15/1), 6Zoomaha (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 421735
🎯 Longshots: 4251376
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Mackadoo (2/1)
Place:2Justhappytobehere (7/2)
Show:7Nine Questions (7/2)
Other contenders:3Shiesty To Chase (5/1), 6Jailhouse Justice (5/1), 1For Mama (12/1)
Rest of field:8Henry The Hank (5/1), 5Looking Good Lewis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427368
🎯 Longshots: 74261385
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Aunt Leila's Sky (9/5)
Place:1Over And Above (6/1)
Show:6Starry Eye Justice (5/2)
Other contenders:3Luna Diva (8/1), 4Estrella Brillante (10/1), 2Jane Plain (12/1)
Rest of field:5Unbridled Sabbath (12/1), 7I'malittlethirsty (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 861342
🎯 Longshots: 83624157
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:2Joe The Tailor (2/1)
Place:5Explosively (7/2)
Show:6Neutron (9/2)
Other contenders:3Countthecarats (5/1), 7Morning Power (5/1)
Rest of field:4Versed (12/1), 1Huevos D'oro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256374
🎯 Longshots: 2465731
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:4Visual (5/2)
Place:2Z's Fireball (6/1)
Show:7Dotties Blue Money (5/1)
Other contenders:5Officer Gambill (7/2), 9Senor Justice (6/1), 8Lil Chance (8/1)
Rest of field:1Runaway Mike (10/1), 6One More Show (15/1), 3Starspangled Louie (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452798
🎯 Longshots: 485972136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,000
Win:2Tarshea (7/5)
Place:8Sea Ride (5/1)
Show:3Channah Del Mar (8/1)
Other contenders:1Madelyn Attack (6/1), 6Nixon's Time (10/1), 4Silvertown (6/1)
Rest of field:5Caumsett (20/1), 7Wildest Problem (6/1), 9Deal'em And Weep (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 281437
🎯 Longshots: 263849175
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:9Audubon Bay (5/2)
Place:4Dream Fast (5/1)
Show:1Chisel (15/1)
Other contenders:2Standard Edition (6/1), 3Dewey Oxburger (4/1), 7Indy Kid (12/1)
Rest of field:5Chabelo (8/1), 8Instinctually (8/1), 6Concho's Prayer (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 943251
🎯 Longshots: 194573628
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #1,#6,#5 (70%) / R2: #4,#1,#2 (77%) / R3: #2,#4,#7 (72%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 39%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#1,#2 (77%) / R3: #2,#4,#7 (72%) / R4: #8,#6,#1 (64%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #2,#3,#6 (70%) / R6: #4,#2,#5 (59%) / R7: #2 (71%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #4,#2,#5 (59%) / R7: #2 (71%) / R8: #9,#1,#4 (53%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #8,#6,#1 (64%) / R5: #2,#3,#6 (70%) / R6: #4,#2,#5 (59%) / R7: #2 (71%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #2,#3,#6 (70%) / R6: #4,#2,#5 (59%) / R7: #2 (71%) / R8: #9,#1,#4 (53%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A FLARE FOR POLITICSAUDUBON BAYAUNT LEILA'S SKYBOURBON CURIOSITYCAUMSETT
CHANNAH DEL MARCHISELCOMMANDER STORMCONCHO'S PRAYERCOUNTTHECARATS
DEWEY OXBURGERDOTTIES BLUE MONEYDREAM FASTEKATI FLATTERESTRELLA BRILLANTE
FLYIN COWGIRLFOR MAMAGA MO TAKHEAVENLYCONVEYANCEHENRY THE HANK
I'MALITTLETHIRSTYIMPERIAL MERLOTINDY KIDINSTINCTUALLYJAILHOUSE JUSTICE
JOE THE TAILORJUSTHAPPYTOBEHERELAST GAME LADYLEO SPRINGSLIL CHANCE
LUNA DIVAMACKADOOMADELYN ATTACKMG FRESCAMISTER BANDERAS
MORNING POWERNEUTRONNINE QUESTIONSNIXON'S TIMEOFFICER GAMBILL
OUTLAW WOMANOVER AND ABOVERELENTLESS CHICKRUNAWAY MIKESEA RIDE
SENOR JUSTICESHIESTY TO CHASESILVERTOWNSTANDARD EDITIONSTARRY EYE JUSTICE
STREAKIN LITTLE JESSSUGAR PRINCESSTARSHEATHREE EYED CANDYUNBRIDLED SABBATH
VISUALWILDEST PROBLEMZ'S FIREBALLZOOMAHA

 


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