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Zia Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 18, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Zia Park presents a ten-race card of claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight events featuring predominantly New Mexico-bred horses. The program showcases competitive sprint action from five furlongs to six and a half furlongs, with a single route race at one mile in Race 6. Claiming levels range from $7,500 to $20,000, with starter optional claiming and allowance conditions filling out the higher-class races. The card begins at 12:05 PM CST and concludes at approximately 4:08 PM. Several scratches have been noted, including Quite Lovely and Turn On Arch from Race 2, and multiple entries from Race 8, so late scratches should be monitored closely.​

The New Mexico racing circuit continues its fall meet with familiar trainers and jockeys competing throughout the card. Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, Todd W. Fincher, and Dick Cappellucci remain the dominant trainers to watch, while veteran riders Luis A. Valenzuela, Francisco Amparan, and Alejandro Medellin handle multiple mounts across the program.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasters predict clear, sunny weather for Hobbs, New Mexico, with temperatures reaching a high of 88 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 64 degrees. Light southerly winds between 8-12 mph are expected throughout racing hours. No precipitation is anticipated, ensuring a fast main dirt track with ideal racing conditions.​

The track surface at Zia Park should be rated fast with consistent footing throughout the card. Recent racing programs indicate the dirt surface has been draining effectively and maintaining even consistency. Horses demonstrating tactical speed and breaking alertly will be favored in these optimal conditions. Speed figures should hold true to recent form with no adjustments needed for surface variations.​

Race 1: Claiming $7,500

Post Time

12:05 PM CST

Pace Analysis

This seven-horse claiming sprint at five furlongs presents a straightforward speed duel between Racer Rex and Tsunami Gold, both of whom possess natural early speed. The abbreviated distance leaves minimal time for rallying types to overcome early deficits. Moniker may press from the outside while the remaining horses appear compromised by lack of recent form or class. The honest early pace should set up fairly for any horse able to secure a tracking position within striking distance entering the stretch.​

Sweet River Baines represents a complicating factor as the 11-year-old gelding sometimes shows residual speed despite advanced age. The projected pace scenario favors horses with tactical positioning ability who can avoid the early battle while maintaining contact. The rail-to-midtrack posts hold advantages in sprint races at Zia Park, particularly at five furlongs where the run to the first turn is abbreviated.​

Key Contenders

Sweet River Baines emerges as a consensus selection despite the advanced age and lower claiming price. The 11-year-old gelding trained by Dick Cappellucci draws post 3 with Luis A. Fuentes aboard, a combination that succeeds at Zia Park. The Cappellucci barn ranks among the meet leaders in wins and win percentage, and any horse he sends out deserves respect regardless of claiming level. The weight allowance provides additional advantages, and Fuentes possesses the tactical skills to rate this veteran properly behind the early pace battle.​

Racer Rex from post 2 represents the primary speed with trainer Rafael S. Barraza and jockey Aldo Arboleda teaming up. The five-year-old gelding shows consistent gate speed and should secure the early lead or press from an ideal stalking position. The claiming price of $7,500 matches the conditions, and the horse has demonstrated ability to wire fields at this level when controlling uncontested fractions.​

Secondary Choices

General Thayer trained by Travis Wheeler draws post 4 with Alejandro Medellin riding. The six-year-old gelding receives the weight allowance and fits the class level. Medellin rides aggressively and will look to secure position early from the middle of the track. The Wheeler stable has been competitive throughout the meet, and this runner could improve with the class drop indicated by recent form.​

Moniker represents another Valdez-Cabral entry from post 7 with Francisco Amparan aboard. The five-year-old gelding shows moderate early speed and will need to overcome the outside post assignment in a seven-horse field. Amparan handles the tactical pace scenario well but may face challenging trips requiring wider journeys around both turns.​

Selections

Win: Sweet River Baines (3)

Place: Racer Rex (2)

Show: General Thayer (4)

Race 2: New Mexico Bred Claiming $7,500 Fillies and Mares

Post Time

12:32 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The six-furlong distance for fillies and mares originally featured eight entrants but has been reduced to six with the scratches of Quite Lovely and Turn On Arch. Shell Game typically shows early speed and will look to secure the lead from the rail post. Indian Excellence and Raise Our Flag also possess tactical speed, creating multiple pace scenarios depending on how aggressively each jockey rides early. The reduced field size favors horses with positional flexibility who can track the pace without expending excessive energy.​

The race shape suggests a moderate early pace with potential acceleration entering the final quarter mile. Fillies and mares at this claiming level often show inconsistent running styles, making pace predictions less reliable than open company races. The six-furlong distance provides sufficient time for horses with late tactical speed to rally if the early pace becomes contested.​

Key Contenders

Shell Game from post 1 trained by Edgar Moreno with jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez represents a logical pace-setting type. The seven-year-old mare draws the rail in a reduced field, providing rail-saving advantages throughout. The weight allowance helps, and the mare has shown ability to control fractions when setting the pace at this claiming level. The reduced field size from eight to six improves chances for horses breaking from inside posts.​

Raise Our Flag trained by Harold Garcia draws post 2 with Miguel A. Perez riding. The seven-year-old mare receives a weight allowance and shows tactical speed to press or sit just off the pace. The inside post position allows flexibility in race tactics, and the mare has competed successfully against similar New Mexico-bred fillies throughout her career.​

Secondary Choices

Indian Excellence from post 7 represents trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral with Fausto Henrique Da Silva aboard. The six-year-old mare carries full weight but shows consistent form in New Mexico-bred company. The outside post in a reduced six-horse field provides a clear early path, and Da Silva rates among the leading riders at the current meet. The Valdez-Cabral stable excels with fillies and mares at all claiming levels.​

Pretty Peppy trained by Filiberto Quiroz draws post 4 with Elvin Gonzalez riding. The five-year-old mare receives the weight allowance and breaks from a middle post offering tactical options. The Quiroz barn sends out three entries in this race, suggesting confidence in their string of New Mexico-bred fillies.​

Selections

Win: Shell Game (1)

Place: Indian Excellence (7)

Show: Raise Our Flag (2)

Race 3: Claiming $15,000 Fillies and Mares Non-Winners of Two

Post Time

12:59 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Seven fillies and mares contest six and a half furlongs in this non-winners of two claiming race. Power Nap from the rail typically shows early speed and will look to establish position from the break. Channel Launch also demonstrates tactical speed, while Ready to Dare has shown ability to press early. The pace scenario suggests moderate early fractions with potential acceleration through the middle stages. The six and a half furlong distance at Zia Park features a run down the backstretch that allows horses to establish their preferred positions before entering the far turn.​

The claiming price of $15,000 attracts higher-quality fillies and mares than lower-level claiming races, resulting in more reliable pace scenarios and running styles. Horses at this level generally possess established preferences and demonstrate consistency in their tactical approaches. The projected pace sets up fairly for versatile runners who can adapt to various race scenarios.​

Key Contenders

Ready to Dare trained by James E. Crotts draws post 4 with Luis A. Valenzuela aboard. The three-year-old filly receives weight allowances and breaks from an ideal middle post position. Valenzuela ranks among the leading riders at Zia Park and excels in route and two-turn races where his patient riding style maximizes horses' late-race energy. The filly shows improving form and the class level suits her current abilities.​

Power Nap represents trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral from the rail post with Francisco Amparan riding. The three-year-old filly receives similar weight allowances and draws a favorable post for speed horses. Amparan breaks horses alertly and will look to secure an early position saving ground on both turns. The Valdez-Cabral barn leads the meet in multiple statistical categories and any entry deserves respect.​

Secondary Choices

Channel Launch trained by Todd W. Fincher draws post 3 with Fausto Henrique Da Silva aboard. The five-year-old mare carries full weight but represents the meet's leading trainer. Fincher maintains a win percentage approaching 47 percent, significantly exceeding circuit averages. The trainer excels in developing horses and shows particular strength in allowance and claiming races. Any Fincher entry paired with regular rider Da Silva warrants serious consideration.​

Wild Steel from post 5 trained by Greg Green with Miguel A. Perez riding offers an alternative from the middle of the track. The three-year-old filly receives weight allowances and should benefit from a ground-saving trip if positioned properly early.​

Selections

Win: Ready To Dare (4)

Place: Channel Launch (3)

Show: Power Nap (1)

Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming $15,000

Post Time

1:26 PM CST

Pace Analysis

The starter optional claiming conditions at six and a half furlongs feature seven older geldings with varied running styles. Cat Gamer shows early speed and will look to control the pace from the rail. Dora's Storm and Rocks a Black Suit also possess tactical speed, creating potential for a contested early pace. Ham Sandwich receives a weight allowance and may benefit from the projected pace scenario if the speed horses engage early. The race shape favors horses with positional versatility who can secure tracking positions without expending excessive energy.​

Starter optional claiming races often produce competitive fields where horses have previously competed at various claiming levels. The conditions restrict entries to horses that have started for $7,500 or less in 2024-2025, creating a relatively even field in terms of class. The six and a half furlong distance provides sufficient time for pace dynamics to develop and for closers to make their moves in the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Cat Gamer trained by Terri Rust draws the rail post with Fausto Henrique Da Silva riding. The six-year-old gelding shows consistent early speed and should secure the lead or press from an ideal rail-saving position. Da Silva ranks among the leading riders at the current meet and handles pace-setting assignments effectively. The rail post at six and a half furlongs offers significant advantages for speed horses able to control the pace.​

Quarrymen from post 4 represents trainer Sebedeo R. Chacon with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. aboard. The four-year-old gelding breaks from a middle post offering tactical flexibility. Juarez demonstrates strong tactical skills and should rate this gelding properly behind or alongside the early pace. The middle post allows options to save ground or advance outside horses depending on how the race develops.​

Secondary Choices

Ham Sandwich trained by Jeffrey J. Trujillo draws post 5 with Erick Medellin riding. The four-year-old gelding receives a significant weight allowance and should improve with the class conditions. The lighter impost provides advantages in the later stages of the race when horses begin to tire. Medellin rides aggressively and will look to secure a favorable position early.​

Rocks a Black Suit from post 3 trained by Filiberto Quiroz with Alejandro Medellin aboard offers tactical speed from an inside post. The six-year-old gelding has competed at this level consistently and fits the starter optional claiming conditions.​

Selections

Win: Cat Gamer (1)

Place: Quarrymen (4)

Show: Ham Sandwich (5)

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight Two-Year-Olds

Post Time

1:53 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Seven two-year-old maidens contest six furlongs in this Lasix-free maiden special weight event. First-time starters dominate the field, making pace predictions more speculative than races featuring horses with established running styles. Beers On Me, Charming Smile, and Forty Seven represent well-regarded trainers who typically prepare their debut runners thoroughly. The Lasix-free condition adds another element of uncertainty as some horses may not handle the restriction as well as others. The race likely develops with moderate early pace as inexperienced runners sort out positions in the opening furlongs.​

The six-furlong distance provides an appropriate test for two-year-olds making their debuts at this time of year. Horses debuting in mid-November typically possess either late maturation or required extended time to develop physically. The race should produce a winner capable of advancing in subsequent starts, as most trainers at Zia Park prepare their maidens thoroughly before unveiling them.​

Key Contenders

Forty Seven trained by Justin R. Evans draws post 5 with Luis A. Valenzuela riding. The two-year-old colt breaks from a middle post offering tactical flexibility and carries the services of one of the meet's leading riders. Evans handles juveniles effectively and typically ensures proper preparation before debuts. Valenzuela's patient riding style suits inexperienced runners who may need time to settle into their stride.​

Lord Chatham from post 3 represents trainer Joel H. Marr with Ken S. Tohill aboard. The two-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside post and carries the services of a veteran rider experienced with debut runners. The Marr barn prepares horses thoroughly and any debut runner suggests sufficient ability demonstrated in morning training sessions.​

Secondary Choices

My Rembrandt trained by Dan L. McFarlane draws post 6 with Luis A. Fuentes riding. The two-year-old colt comes from a stable that succeeds with juveniles and pairs with an experienced jockey who handles first-time starters effectively. The outside post requires alertness but provides a clear early path for establishing position.​

Charming Smile from post 2 trained by Miguel L. Hernandez with Alejandro Medellin aboard breaks from an inside post offering ground-saving advantages. Medellin rides aggressively and will look to secure position early with this debut runner.​

Selections

Win: Forty Seven (5)

Place: Lord Chatham (3)

Show: My Rembrandt (6)

Race 6: New Mexico Bred Claiming $7,500 One Mile

Post Time

2:20 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Nine New Mexico-bred geldings contest one mile in this claiming race for horses that have not won a race at a mile or over since August 18. The extended distance dramatically alters pace dynamics compared to the sprint races that dominate the card. King Bryce, Valentino Who, and Maximum Bull show early speed and will likely contest the pace through moderate opening fractions. The one-mile distance at Zia Park features a relatively long run to the first turn, allowing horses time to settle into their preferred positions without immediate pressure.​

Route races at claiming levels often produce more reliable pace scenarios as horses with established running styles sort themselves out naturally. Closers and deep closers gain advantages when multiple speed horses engage early through quick fractions. The projected moderate-to-honest early pace should set up fairly for horses with versatile running styles who can track within striking distance through the middle stages.​

Key Contenders

King Bryce trained by Sherry Armstrong draws the rail post with Francisco Amparan riding. The five-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and benefits from the rail-saving trip in a route race. Amparan handles route races effectively and will look to save ground on both turns while maintaining contact with the pace. The Armstrong barn succeeds with New Mexico-bred horses at all levels and distances.​

Indy's Song from post 4 represents trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. aboard. The eight-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance despite his age and experience. Recent results show the gelding won at Zia Park on November 11, demonstrating current form and ability to handle the one-mile distance. The Valdez-Cabral stable dominates at the current meet, and any entry commands respect.​

Secondary Choices

Arch City trained by Simon J. Buechler draws post 8 with Luis A. Valenzuela riding. The eight-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and pairs with one of the circuit's leading riders. Valenzuela excels in route races where his patient riding style allows horses to conserve energy for late runs. The outside post requires a wider trip but provides a clear view of the pace development.​

Valentino Who from post 2 trained by Jose A. Gonzalez with Irwin J. Rosendo aboard offers early speed from an inside post. The five-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and should secure a forward position saving ground throughout the race.​

Selections

Win: Indy's Song (4)

Place: King Bryce (1)

Show: Arch City (8)

Race 7: New Mexico Bred Claiming $7,500 Non-Winners of Three

Post Time

2:47 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Eight New Mexico-bred geldings contest five furlongs in this claiming sprint for non-winners of three races. Royal Lineage and Shame On Whiskey show early speed and will likely engage through quick opening fractions. The abbreviated five-furlong distance leaves minimal room for tactical maneuvering and favors horses breaking alertly and securing forward positions immediately. Sapello Sicario may also show speed from post 3, potentially creating a three-horse pace battle through the opening quarter mile.​

The non-winners of three conditions attract competitive horses that have shown ability without achieving sustained success. These horses often possess physical limitations or behavioral issues preventing consistent winning form. The claiming price of $7,500 indicates relatively modest talent levels, though occasional horses dropping from higher conditions provide exceptions. The projected contested early pace should create opportunities for any horse able to track the leaders within striking distance.​

Key Contenders

Sapello Sicario trained by Miguel L. Hernandez draws post 3 with Alejandro Medellin riding. The three-year-old gelding receives significant weight allowances and breaks from a favorable inside post. Medellin rides aggressively and will look to secure position early from the middle of the track. The gelding shows early speed and should avoid the worst of any pace battle while maintaining contact with the leaders.​

Shame On Whiskey from post 5 represents trainer Casey T. Lambert with Luis A. Valenzuela aboard. The four-year-old gelding carries full weight but pairs with one of the meet's leading riders. Valenzuela handles pace-pressing assignments effectively and will rate this gelding properly behind or alongside the early speed. The middle post provides options for inside or outside tactical approaches.​

Secondary Choices

Royal Lineage trained by Alberto Amparan draws the rail post with Francisco

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