Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming, 1105Y, Dirt
Win: 3 Sweet River Baines – 75% confidencePlace: 1 Blazing To Gold – 63% confidence
Show: 6 Tsunami Gold – 38% confidence🥇
Alternative: 7 Moniker – 25% confidence
The favorite returns from a layoff with multiple wins at this track, showing strong form in her most recent outing. Her main challenger posted a recent placing at Zia Park and has proven effective at this distance. Analysts favor the top two while noting that a longshot scored impressively last time at big odds. The distance suits several contenders who have demonstrated early speed.
Race 2 – Claiming, 1323Y, Dirt
Win: 1 Shell Game – 88% confidence
Place: 5 Turn On Arch – 88% confidence
Show: 6 Quite Lovely – 38% confidence🥇
Alternative: 4 Pretty Peppy – 38% confidence🥉
The top selection won impressively over course and distance when returning from a break and has proven to be a track specialist with multiple victories. Her closest competitor placed second in that same race and could challenge again with tactical speed to set or press the pace. Both fillies return on short rest and hold significant form advantages over the field.
Race 3 – Claiming, 1433Y, Dirt WIN + EXACTA
Win: 4 Ready To Dare – 63% confidence🥇
Place: 3 Channel Launch – 63% confidence🥈
Show: 1 Power Nap – 38% confidence
Alternative: 7 Garavani – 25% confidence
Recent form suggests a competitive race among the top three selections. The likely favorite has been competing well in this company and appears suited to the conditions. A returning contender showed ability in previous starts despite finishing behind the leaders. Another returning from a lengthy layoff brings solid recent form from another track.
Race 4 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1433Y, Dirt WIN
Win: 4 Quarrymen – 88% confidence🥇
Place: 1 Cat Gamer – 88% confidence🥉
Show: 5 Ham Sandwich – 25% confidence
Alternative: 3 Rocks A Black Suit – 25% confidence
The top selection cannot be discounted after winning consecutive starts at two different tracks, including a recent victory at Zia Park. The main challenger returns from a spell after showing midpack form when last seen. Form suggests these two hold clear advantages, with both returning from layoffs and seeking to find their best stride.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 1323Y, Dirt
Win: 1 Beers On Me – 63% confidence🥉
Place: 5 Forty Seven – 75% confidence🥇
Show: 2 Charming Smile – 38% confidence
Alternative: 3 Lord Chatham – 38% confidence🥈
A competitive maiden where the top selection drops from tougher circuits and has been racing against higher quality competition, including stakes company. His stablemate narrowly missed last time when heavily backed and holds two placings from three recent starts. Both represent the same barn and have shown consistent form at this level. The jockey riding the favorite has been exceptionally strong at the meet.
Race 6 – Claiming, 8F, Dirt
Win: 4 Indy’s Song – 88% confidence🥉
Place: 5 Grifter – 38% confidence
Show: 2 Valentino Who – 25% confidence🥈
Alternative: 8 Arch City – 13% confidence
The clear choice placed on his most recent start at this track when resuming and has won all previous races when favored. The mile distance represents an unknown but his tactical speed should prove beneficial in a race lacking pace. Several competitors return from lengthy layoffs, adding uncertainty to the outcome. A recent near-miss suggests one challenger could threaten if the favorite falters.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1105Y, Dirt
Win: 1 Royal Lineage – 63% confidence🥈
Place: 3 Sapello Sicario – 63% confidence
Show: 6 Comfort J Byrd – 50% confidence🥇
Alternative: 7 Juana Rumble – 38% confidence
Analysts are split on the top two selections in this sprint. One comes off a placing at this track when returning as the favorite, though draws the challenging rail position. The other just won at Zia Park when fresh, bringing momentum into this assignment. A third contender finished close to the favorite last time and has shown consistency at the track with previous success.
Race 8 – Claiming, 1433Y, Dirt
Win: 1 Fast Service – 75% confidenceAlternative: 6 Hank Hill – 38% confidence🥉
Place: 2 Blue Ocean Rave – 50% confidence
Show: 9 Danzing Miner – 38% confidence
The favorite returns quickly after competing in California for much of his career, though his initial Zia Park start proved disappointing. A closer type has proven capable of strong finishes at this level and showed good form when last seen. Both the top selections run back on short rest. A recent maiden winner could factor into the outcome with improved class placement.
Race 9 – Claiming, 1323Y, Dirt
Win: 3 Marked Cash – 75% confidence
Place: 8 Be A Pro – 38% confidence🥇
Show: 2 Lime Chilton – 38% confidence
Alternative: 6 El Huarache Prieto – 38% confidence🥉
The top selection drops to claiming company for the first time after running fourth in an allowance race when returning from a layoff. The class relief should prove beneficial. A returning runner has shown ability in his first three career starts. Another making his claiming debut won a maiden special weight at this track previously and could benefit from the drop in class after a lengthy absence.
Race 10 – Allowance, 1105Y, Dirt
Win: 3 Diabolical Storm – 50% confidence🥈
Place: 5 Mister Wu – 50% confidence🥉Show: 4 Flags Finale – 63% confidence
Alternative: 1 Holottalute – 13% confidence
Analysts are evenly divided on the top two selections. One has been competitive at this level with multiple placings at Zia Park but has been unable to secure a victory. The other returns from a lengthy spell following a win and is perfect in two starts at this track. A third runner placed in his recent return and fits well at this level. The sprint distance and New Mexico breeding restrictions define this competitive allowance event.
Exotic Betting Analysis and Value Plays
Pick Pony analysts identify several wagering opportunities across the Zia Park card based on consensus patterns and value propositions.
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4): The sequence begins with a competitive sprint where the favorite draws strong support but faces a capable challenger. Race 2 appears most solid with a dominant winner returning quickly. Race 3 offers the most uncertainty with three viable contenders. Race 4 anchors with a confident top selection on a winning streak. Consider structures using: Race 1 (3,1), Race 2 (1), Race 3 (4,3,1), Race 4 (4,1).
Middle Pick 4 (Races 4-7): This sequence offers potential value beginning with a strong favorite in Race 4. The maiden race in Race 5 shows quality depth requiring wider coverage. Race 6 presents a standout while Race 7 remains contentious between two main rivals. Suggested tickets: Race 4 (4), Race 5 (1,5), Race 6 (4), Race 7 (1,3,6).
Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10): The closing sequence features competitive racing throughout. Race 7 splits opinion between two capable sprinters. Race 8 shows vulnerability in the favorite after a disappointing local debut. Race 9 introduces first-time claimers seeking class relief. The finale remains divided between two quality allowance runners. Structure: Race 7 (1,3), Race 8 (1,2,9), Race 9 (3,8,2), Race 10 (3,5,4).
Exacta Opportunities: Race 2 (1 with 5), Race 4 (4 with 1,3,5), Race 6 (4 with 5,2,8). These races feature clear top selections with identifiable challengers at value prices.
Trifecta Value: Race 5 offers trifecta potential using the top four selections. The quality maiden field combined with horses stepping down from tougher circuits creates betting depth. Consider boxed trifectas using (1,5,2,3) or keyed structures with 1 or 5 on top.
Daily Double: Race 5 into Race 6 connects a competitive maiden with a race featuring a standout. Play 1,5 in Race 5 with 4 in Race 6 for value. The Pick 5 starting in Race 6 carries a carryover, making it an attractive target for structured sequences focusing on the favorite in Race 6 while spreading in other legs.
Superfecta: Race 7 provides superfecta value given the tight competition among four main contenders. Box (1,3,6,7) or use race favorites on top in keyed combinations for reduced cost tickets.
Late Daily Double: Race 9 into Race 10 connects two claiming-to-allowance races with multiple first-time starters at their respective levels. The uncertainty creates value in doubles using multiple horses from each race.
Analysts recommend focusing on races where confident top selections can anchor tickets while spreading in contentious events. Short-field races offer boxing opportunities while competitive fields require selective keying strategies.
