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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mountaineer Park, November 8, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 254 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-08-16 to 2026-11-04.

0%21%43%64%86%Our top pick: 68.5% from 254 racesOur top pick68.5%Morning-line favourite: 65.7% from 254 racesMorning-line favourite65.7%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick68.5%254
Morning-line favourite65.7%254
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Prima Donna (1/1)
Place:8Karma Wins (4/1)
Show:6Amazon Time (6/1)
Other contenders:5Smart Little Lass (10/1), 7Whatthecatdraggdin (8/1), 9Bien Charlie (15/1)
Rest of field:4Offthe Beaten Path (12/1), 3Aintnofearoverhere (20/1), 2Cupids Cavalier (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186574
🎯 Longshots: 156438279
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Wild Tapit (2/1)
Place:9Lil Breezzy (7/2)
Show:7Rock Star Parking (3/1)
Other contenders:4True Class (7/1), 3Pop Chart (10/1), 1Worth Considering (12/1)
Rest of field:8The Shoe Lady (15/1), 2Seems To Whisper (12/1), 6Goodbye Indy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 579431
🎯 Longshots: 597843126
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10Dominant Caitlin (2/1)
Place:7Gone A Lil West (3/1)
Show:8This Is Gloria (9/1)
Other contenders:3Invidia Del Coco (6/1), 2Prettyrunner (7/1), 5Thirtyninered (12/1)
Rest of field:1Brand New Dance (15/1), 9Raven's Honor (10/1), 4Greta T (20/1), 6Keydini (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1073825
🎯 Longshots: 10873215946
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Speaker's Lobby (2/1)
Place:10He's A Daredevil (6/1)
Show:11Chasing Gray (3/1)
Other contenders:5Be Lucky Again (3/1), 8State Of Attack (7/1), 9Finding Candy (9/1), 4Wilding Lane (10/1)
Rest of field:12Senor Ruben (10/1), 7Biscotti (20/1), 2Klimtster (12/1), 1Why Me Lord (15/1), 3Principote (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61151089
🎯 Longshots: 910116512178243
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #11, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:13Natalia's Rap (5/1)
Place:7Frosted Eclair (3/1)
Show:11Hialeah Hottie (4/1)
Other contenders:1Principia (2/1), 4Lady Hamilton (6/1), 3Denali Rae (9/1), 12Life Of Saturdays (10/1)
Rest of field:6Markswoman (15/1), 10Stolen Kisses (10/1), 2Kingston Time (7/1), 9Cana Gris (12/1), 8Gotham Gray (20/1), 5Secret Seduction (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 71311143
🎯 Longshots: 13117613121049825
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #11, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9All I Do (2/1)
Place:10Poetic Amy (3/1)
Show:6Retail Therapy (9/1)
Other contenders:2Peaches Point (6/1), 8Political Spin (12/1), 3Power Party (7/1)
Rest of field:4Lunarchy (10/1), 1Honestly (20/1), 7Morning Line News (15/1), 5Q Bond (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9106238
🎯 Longshots: 69108123475
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Prince Jeremy (7/5)
Place:4Joker Went Wild (4/1)
Show:8Dembe Zuma (3/1)
Other contenders:6Mexicali Mike (6/1), 3Vindicato (12/1), 1Dave Did It (10/1)
Rest of field:2Mo Snow (15/1), 7K's Red Bull (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 548631
🎯 Longshots: 54681327
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:14Nightwind (2/1)
Place:11Major Contender (5/2)
Show:3Mr Hoover (2/1)
Other contenders:2Ready For Action (3/1), 9Zippy Gizmo (10/1), 8Tempus (7/1), 4Ambulante (6/1)
Rest of field:12Dr Jack Flyer (5/1), 13Reverend Jack (8/1), 7Mackenzie's Novva (9/1), 5Try Try Again (12/1), 1Trap Line (20/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 10Gold Buckle (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 141132128
🎯 Longshots: 1411913384271256110
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #11, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mountaineer Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 171 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-09-06 to 2026-11-04.

0%11%23%34%45%Our top pick: 36.3% from 171 racesOur top pick36.3%Morning-line favourite: 32.7% from 171 racesMorning-line favourite32.7%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick36.3%171
Morning-line favourite32.7%171
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Prima Donna (1/1) 63% · fair 3-5 overlay +71%
Place:6Amazon Time (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -37%
Show:8Karma Wins (4/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -65%
Other contenders:3Aintnofearoverhere (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1, 4Offthe Beaten Path (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -55%, 2Cupids Cavalier (20/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -28%
Rest of field:7Whatthecatdraggdin (8/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -76%, 5Smart Little Lass (10/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -71%, 9Bien Charlie (15/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -61%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Prima Donna — 63.1% win probability, morning line 1/1Prima Donna63.1% ◀Amazon Time — 9.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Amazon Time9.5%Karma Wins — 8.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Karma Wins8.1%Aintnofearoverhere — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Aintnofearoverhere4.0%Offthe Beaten Path — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Offthe Beaten Path3.6%Cupids Cavalier — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Cupids Cavalier3.5%Whatthecatdraggdin — 2.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Whatthecatdraggdin2.9%Smart Little Lass — 2.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Smart Little Lass2.8%Bien Charlie — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Bien Charlie2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Prima Donna63.1%1/1
Amazon Time9.5%6/1
Karma Wins8.1%4/1
Aintnofearoverhere4.0%20/1
Offthe Beaten Path3.6%12/1
Cupids Cavalier3.5%20/1
Whatthecatdraggdin2.9%8/1
Smart Little Lass2.8%10/1
Bien Charlie2.5%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPrima Donna: model 63.1% vs market 39.1% (+24.0 points)Prima Donna+24.0Amazon Time: model 9.5% vs market 11.2% (-1.6 points)Amazon Time-1.6Karma Wins: model 8.1% vs market 15.6% (-7.6 points)Karma Wins-7.6Aintnofearoverhere: model 4.0% vs market 3.7% (+0.3 points)Aintnofearoverhere+0.3Offthe Beaten Path: model 3.6% vs market 6.0% (-2.4 points)Offthe Beaten Path-2.4Cupids Cavalier: model 3.5% vs market 3.7% (-0.3 points)Cupids Cavalier-0.3Whatthecatdraggdin: model 2.9% vs market 8.7% (-5.8 points)Whatthecatdraggdin-5.8Smart Little Lass: model 2.8% vs market 7.1% (-4.3 points)Smart Little Lass-4.3Bien Charlie: model 2.5% vs market 4.9% (-2.3 points)Bien Charlie-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Prima Donna63.1%39.1%+24.0
Amazon Time9.5%11.2%-1.6
Karma Wins8.1%15.6%-7.6
Aintnofearoverhere4.0%3.7%+0.3
Offthe Beaten Path3.6%6.0%-2.4
Cupids Cavalier3.5%3.7%-0.3
Whatthecatdraggdin2.9%8.7%-5.8
Smart Little Lass2.8%7.1%-4.3
Bien Charlie2.5%4.9%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 186754
🎯 Longshots: 156438279
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:5Wild Tapit (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:9Lil Breezzy (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -26%
Show:7Rock Star Parking (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:4True Class (7/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 3Pop Chart (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 2Seems To Whisper (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -34%
Rest of field:8The Shoe Lady (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 1Worth Considering (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -40%, 6Goodbye Indy (20/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -63%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Wild Tapit — 29.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Wild Tapit29.3% ◀Lil Breezzy — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lil Breezzy17.5%Rock Star Parking — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Rock Star Parking16.4%True Class — 12.9% win probability, morning line 7/1True Class12.9%Pop Chart — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Pop Chart7.1%Seems To Whisper — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Seems To Whisper5.2%The Shoe Lady — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1The Shoe Lady5.0%Worth Considering — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Worth Considering4.8%Goodbye Indy — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Goodbye Indy1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Wild Tapit29.3%2/1
Lil Breezzy17.5%3.5/1
Rock Star Parking16.4%3/1
True Class12.9%7/1
Pop Chart7.1%10/1
Seems To Whisper5.2%12/1
The Shoe Lady5.0%15/1
Worth Considering4.8%12/1
Goodbye Indy1.8%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 579432
🎯 Longshots: 597843126
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:10Dominant Caitlin (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:7Gone A Lil West (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -53%
Show:3Invidia Del Coco (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:8This Is Gloria (9/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 2Prettyrunner (7/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 5Thirtyninered (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2
Rest of field:1Brand New Dance (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 9Raven's Honor (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -61%, 4Greta T (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%, 6Keydini (20/1) 1% · fair 301-2 underlay -87%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dominant Caitlin — 34.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Dominant Caitlin34.4% ◀Gone A Lil West — 13.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Gone A Lil West13.5%Invidia Del Coco — 13.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Invidia Del Coco13.4%This Is Gloria — 10.4% win probability, morning line 9/1This Is Gloria10.4%Prettyrunner — 9.7% win probability, morning line 7/1Prettyrunner9.7%Thirtyninered — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Thirtyninered6.3%Brand New Dance — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Brand New Dance5.8%Raven'S Honor — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Raven'S Honor3.7%Greta T — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Greta T2.0%Keydini — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Keydini0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dominant Caitlin34.4%2/1
Gone A Lil West13.5%3/1
Invidia Del Coco13.4%6/1
This Is Gloria10.4%9/1
Prettyrunner9.7%7/1
Thirtyninered6.3%12/1
Brand New Dance5.8%15/1
Raven'S Honor3.7%10/1
Greta T2.0%20/1
Keydini0.7%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDominant Caitlin: model 34.4% vs market 26.1% (+8.3 points)Dominant Caitlin+8.3Gone A Lil West: model 13.5% vs market 19.6% (-6.1 points)Gone A Lil West-6.1Invidia Del Coco: model 13.4% vs market 11.2% (+2.2 points)Invidia Del Coco+2.2This Is Gloria: model 10.4% vs market 7.8% (+2.6 points)This Is Gloria+2.6Prettyrunner: model 9.7% vs market 9.8% (-0.0 points)Prettyrunner-0.0Thirtyninered: model 6.3% vs market 6.0% (+0.3 points)Thirtyninered+0.3Brand New Dance: model 5.8% vs market 4.9% (+0.9 points)Brand New Dance+0.9Raven'S Honor: model 3.7% vs market 7.1% (-3.4 points)Raven'S Honor-3.4Greta T: model 2.0% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Greta T-1.8Keydini: model 0.7% vs market 3.7% (-3.1 points)Keydini-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dominant Caitlin34.4%26.1%+8.3
Gone A Lil West13.5%19.6%-6.1
Invidia Del Coco13.4%11.2%+2.2
This Is Gloria10.4%7.8%+2.6
Prettyrunner9.7%9.8%-0.0
Thirtyninered6.3%6.0%+0.3
Brand New Dance5.8%4.9%+0.9
Raven'S Honor3.7%7.1%-3.4
Greta T2.0%3.7%-1.8
Keydini0.7%3.7%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 1073289
🎯 Longshots: 10873215946
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:10He's A Daredevil (6/1) 21% · fair 7-2 overlay +63%
Place:5Be Lucky Again (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -51%
Show:6Speaker's Lobby (2/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -68%
Other contenders:11Chasing Gray (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -55%, 8State Of Attack (7/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -28%, 9Finding Candy (9/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 7Biscotti (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1
Rest of field:12Senor Ruben (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -53%, 4Wilding Lane (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -61%, 2Klimtster (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -61%, 1Why Me Lord (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -56%, 3Principote (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

He'S A Daredevil — 21.4% win probability, morning line 6/1He'S A Daredevil21.4% ◀Be Lucky Again — 14.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Be Lucky Again14.0%Speaker'S Lobby — 13.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Speaker'S Lobby13.6%Chasing Gray — 13.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Chasing Gray13.0%State Of Attack — 9.3% win probability, morning line 7/1State Of Attack9.3%Finding Candy — 7.9% win probability, morning line 9/1Finding Candy7.9%Biscotti — 4.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Biscotti4.8%Senor Ruben — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Senor Ruben4.5%Wilding Lane — 3.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Wilding Lane3.8%Klimtster — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Klimtster3.2%Why Me Lord — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Why Me Lord2.8%Principote — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Principote1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
He'S A Daredevil21.4%6/1
Be Lucky Again14.0%3/1
Speaker'S Lobby13.6%2/1
Chasing Gray13.0%3/1
State Of Attack9.3%7/1
Finding Candy7.9%9/1
Biscotti4.8%20/1
Senor Ruben4.5%10/1
Wilding Lane3.8%10/1
Klimtster3.2%12/1
Why Me Lord2.8%15/1
Principote1.7%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHe'S A Daredevil: model 21.4% vs market 8.8% (+12.5 points)He'S A Daredevil+12.5Be Lucky Again: model 14.0% vs market 15.5% (-1.5 points)Be Lucky Again-1.5Speaker'S Lobby: model 13.6% vs market 20.6% (-7.0 points)Speaker'S Lobby-7.0Chasing Gray: model 13.0% vs market 15.5% (-2.4 points)Chasing Gray-2.4State Of Attack: model 9.3% vs market 7.7% (+1.6 points)State Of Attack+1.6Finding Candy: model 7.9% vs market 6.2% (+1.8 points)Finding Candy+1.8Biscotti: model 4.8% vs market 2.9% (+1.8 points)Biscotti+1.8Senor Ruben: model 4.5% vs market 5.6% (-1.2 points)Senor Ruben-1.2Wilding Lane: model 3.8% vs market 5.6% (-1.8 points)Wilding Lane-1.8Klimtster: model 3.2% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)Klimtster-1.6Why Me Lord: model 2.8% vs market 3.9% (-1.0 points)Why Me Lord-1.0Principote: model 1.7% vs market 2.9% (-1.2 points)Principote-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
He'S A Daredevil21.4%8.8%+12.5
Be Lucky Again14.0%15.5%-1.5
Speaker'S Lobby13.6%20.6%-7.0
Chasing Gray13.0%15.5%-2.4
State Of Attack9.3%7.7%+1.6
Finding Candy7.9%6.2%+1.8
Biscotti4.8%2.9%+1.8
Senor Ruben4.5%5.6%-1.2
Wilding Lane3.8%5.6%-1.8
Klimtster3.2%4.8%-1.6
Why Me Lord2.8%3.9%-1.0
Principote1.7%2.9%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 61051189
🎯 Longshots: 910116512178243
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:13Natalia's Rap (5/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +71%
Place:11Hialeah Hottie (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:7Frosted Eclair (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:4Lady Hamilton (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 1Principia (2/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -82%, 3Denali Rae (9/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -55%, 12Life Of Saturdays (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%
Rest of field:6Markswoman (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -56%, 10Stolen Kisses (10/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -74%, 2Kingston Time (7/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -88%, 9Cana Gris (12/1) 1% · fair 155-2 underlay -85%, 8Gotham Gray (20/1) 1% · fair 110-1 underlay -82%, 5Secret Seduction (20/1) 1% · fair 121-1 underlay -83%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Natalia'S Rap — 25.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Natalia'S Rap25.5% ◀Hialeah Hottie — 20.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Hialeah Hottie20.3%Frosted Eclair — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Frosted Eclair16.4%Lady Hamilton — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Lady Hamilton10.4%Principia — 8.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Principia8.1%Denali Rae — 4.7% win probability, morning line 9/1Denali Rae4.7%Life Of Saturdays — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Life Of Saturdays4.5%Markswoman — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Markswoman2.8%Stolen Kisses — 2.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Stolen Kisses2.6%Kingston Time — 1.7% win probability, morning line 7/1Kingston Time1.7%Cana Gris — 1.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Cana Gris1.3%Gotham Gray — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Gotham Gray0.9%Secret Seduction — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Secret Seduction0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Natalia'S Rap25.5%5/1
Hialeah Hottie20.3%4/1
Frosted Eclair16.4%3/1
Lady Hamilton10.4%6/1
Principia8.1%2/1
Denali Rae4.7%9/1
Life Of Saturdays4.5%10/1
Markswoman2.8%15/1
Stolen Kisses2.6%10/1
Kingston Time1.7%7/1
Cana Gris1.3%12/1
Gotham Gray0.9%20/1
Secret Seduction0.8%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNatalia'S Rap: model 25.5% vs market 9.6% (+15.9 points)Natalia'S Rap+15.9Hialeah Hottie: model 20.3% vs market 11.5% (+8.8 points)Hialeah Hottie+8.8Frosted Eclair: model 16.4% vs market 14.4% (+1.9 points)Frosted Eclair+1.9Lady Hamilton: model 10.4% vs market 8.2% (+2.1 points)Lady Hamilton+2.1Principia: model 8.1% vs market 19.2% (-11.1 points)Principia-11.1Denali Rae: model 4.7% vs market 5.8% (-1.0 points)Denali Rae-1.0Life Of Saturdays: model 4.5% vs market 5.2% (-0.7 points)Life Of Saturdays-0.7Markswoman: model 2.8% vs market 3.6% (-0.8 points)Markswoman-0.8Stolen Kisses: model 2.6% vs market 5.2% (-2.7 points)Stolen Kisses-2.7Kingston Time: model 1.7% vs market 7.2% (-5.5 points)Kingston Time-5.5Cana Gris: model 1.3% vs market 4.4% (-3.2 points)Cana Gris-3.2Gotham Gray: model 0.9% vs market 2.7% (-1.8 points)Gotham Gray-1.8Secret Seduction: model 0.8% vs market 2.7% (-1.9 points)Secret Seduction-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Natalia'S Rap25.5%9.6%+15.9
Hialeah Hottie20.3%11.5%+8.8
Frosted Eclair16.4%14.4%+1.9
Lady Hamilton10.4%8.2%+2.1
Principia8.1%19.2%-11.1
Denali Rae4.7%5.8%-1.0
Life Of Saturdays4.5%5.2%-0.7
Markswoman2.8%3.6%-0.8
Stolen Kisses2.6%5.2%-2.7
Kingston Time1.7%7.2%-5.5
Cana Gris1.3%4.4%-3.2
Gotham Gray0.9%2.7%-1.8
Secret Seduction0.8%2.7%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 13117142
🎯 Longshots: 13117613121049825
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:6Retail Therapy (9/1) 19% · fair 9-2 overlay +107%
Place:10Poetic Amy (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -32%
Show:9All I Do (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -56%
Other contenders:2Peaches Point (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3Power Party (7/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Political Spin (12/1) 10% · fair 9-1 overlay +32%
Rest of field:4Lunarchy (10/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -58%, 1Honestly (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%, 7Morning Line News (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -62%, 5Q Bond (20/1) 2% · fair 113-2 underlay -65%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Retail Therapy — 18.7% win probability, morning line 9/1Retail Therapy18.7% ◀Poetic Amy — 18.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Poetic Amy18.5%All I Do — 18.0% win probability, morning line 2/1All I Do18.0%Peaches Point — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Peaches Point13.2%Power Party — 10.1% win probability, morning line 7/1Power Party10.1%Political Spin — 9.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Political Spin9.9%Lunarchy — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Lunarchy4.1%Honestly — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Honestly3.3%Morning Line News — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Morning Line News2.4%Q Bond — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Q Bond1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Retail Therapy18.7%9/1
Poetic Amy18.5%3/1
All I Do18.0%2/1
Peaches Point13.2%6/1
Power Party10.1%7/1
Political Spin9.9%12/1
Lunarchy4.1%10/1
Honestly3.3%20/1
Morning Line News2.4%15/1
Q Bond1.7%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRetail Therapy: model 18.7% vs market 7.8% (+10.9 points)Retail Therapy+10.9Poetic Amy: model 18.5% vs market 19.6% (-1.1 points)Poetic Amy-1.1All I Do: model 18.0% vs market 26.1% (-8.1 points)All I Do-8.1Peaches Point: model 13.2% vs market 11.2% (+2.0 points)Peaches Point+2.0Power Party: model 10.1% vs market 9.8% (+0.3 points)Power Party+0.3Political Spin: model 9.9% vs market 6.0% (+3.9 points)Political Spin+3.9Lunarchy: model 4.1% vs market 7.1% (-3.1 points)Lunarchy-3.1Honestly: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Honestly-0.4Morning Line News: model 2.4% vs market 4.9% (-2.4 points)Morning Line News-2.4Q Bond: model 1.7% vs market 3.7% (-2.0 points)Q Bond-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Retail Therapy18.7%7.8%+10.9
Poetic Amy18.5%19.6%-1.1
All I Do18.0%26.1%-8.1
Peaches Point13.2%11.2%+2.0
Power Party10.1%9.8%+0.3
Political Spin9.9%6.0%+3.9
Lunarchy4.1%7.1%-3.1
Honestly3.3%3.7%-0.4
Morning Line News2.4%4.9%-2.4
Q Bond1.7%3.7%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 9106238
🎯 Longshots: 69108123475
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:5Prince Jeremy (7/5) 38% · fair 3-2
Place:8Dembe Zuma (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:4Joker Went Wild (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Mexicali Mike (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3Vindicato (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%, 1Dave Did It (10/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -66%
Rest of field:7K's Red Bull (20/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -43%, 2Mo Snow (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Prince Jeremy — 38.0% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Prince Jeremy38.0% ◀Dembe Zuma — 20.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Dembe Zuma20.8%Joker Went Wild — 17.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Joker Went Wild17.4%Mexicali Mike — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Mexicali Mike11.6%Vindicato — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Vindicato3.7%Dave Did It — 3.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Dave Did It3.3%K'S Red Bull — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1K'S Red Bull2.8%Mo Snow — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Mo Snow2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Prince Jeremy38.0%1.4/1
Dembe Zuma20.8%3/1
Joker Went Wild17.4%4/1
Mexicali Mike11.6%6/1
Vindicato3.7%12/1
Dave Did It3.3%10/1
K'S Red Bull2.8%20/1
Mo Snow2.4%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPrince Jeremy: model 38.0% vs market 32.4% (+5.6 points)Prince Jeremy+5.6Dembe Zuma: model 20.8% vs market 19.4% (+1.4 points)Dembe Zuma+1.4Joker Went Wild: model 17.4% vs market 15.5% (+1.8 points)Joker Went Wild+1.8Mexicali Mike: model 11.6% vs market 11.1% (+0.5 points)Mexicali Mike+0.5Vindicato: model 3.7% vs market 6.0% (-2.2 points)Vindicato-2.2Dave Did It: model 3.3% vs market 7.1% (-3.8 points)Dave Did It-3.8K'S Red Bull: model 2.8% vs market 3.7% (-0.9 points)K'S Red Bull-0.9Mo Snow: model 2.4% vs market 4.9% (-2.4 points)Mo Snow-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Prince Jeremy38.0%32.4%+5.6
Dembe Zuma20.8%19.4%+1.4
Joker Went Wild17.4%15.5%+1.8
Mexicali Mike11.6%11.1%+0.5
Vindicato3.7%6.0%-2.2
Dave Did It3.3%7.1%-3.8
K'S Red Bull2.8%3.7%-0.9
Mo Snow2.4%4.9%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 584613
🎯 Longshots: 54681327
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:14Nightwind (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -60%
Place:11Major Contender (5/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -51%
Show:9Zippy Gizmo (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +29%
Other contenders:8Tempus (7/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -26%, 3Mr Hoover (2/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -79%, 2Ready For Action (3/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -73%, 4Ambulante (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%
Rest of field:12Dr Jack Flyer (5/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -68%, 13Reverend Jack (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%, 7Mackenzie's Novva (9/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -71%, 5Try Try Again (12/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -69%, 10Gold Buckle (15/1) 1% · fair 139-2 underlay -78%, 1Trap Line (20/1) 1% · fair 141-2 underlay -72%, 6Barleewon (20/1) 1% · fair 209-2 underlay -81%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Nightwind — 16.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Nightwind16.6% ◀Major Contender — 16.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Major Contender16.5%Zippy Gizmo — 11.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Zippy Gizmo11.4%Tempus — 9.5% win probability, morning line 7/1Tempus9.5%Mr Hoover — 9.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Mr Hoover9.4%Ready For Action — 8.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Ready For Action8.4%Ambulante — 7.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Ambulante7.9%Dr Jack Flyer — 6.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Dr Jack Flyer6.0%Reverend Jack — 4.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Reverend Jack4.9%Mackenzie'S Novva — 3.1% win probability, morning line 9/1Mackenzie'S Novva3.1%Try Try Again — 2.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Try Try Again2.5%Gold Buckle — 1.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Gold Buckle1.4%Trap Line — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Trap Line1.4%Barleewon — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Barleewon0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Nightwind16.6%2/1
Major Contender16.5%2.5/1
Zippy Gizmo11.4%10/1
Tempus9.5%7/1
Mr Hoover9.4%2/1
Ready For Action8.4%3/1
Ambulante7.9%6/1
Dr Jack Flyer6.0%5/1
Reverend Jack4.9%8/1
Mackenzie'S Novva3.1%9/1
Try Try Again2.5%12/1
Gold Buckle1.4%15/1
Trap Line1.4%20/1
Barleewon0.9%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNightwind: model 16.6% vs market 15.3% (+1.3 points)Nightwind+1.3Major Contender: model 16.5% vs market 13.1% (+3.3 points)Major Contender+3.3Zippy Gizmo: model 11.4% vs market 4.2% (+7.2 points)Zippy Gizmo+7.2Tempus: model 9.5% vs market 5.8% (+3.8 points)Tempus+3.8Mr Hoover: model 9.4% vs market 15.3% (-5.9 points)Mr Hoover-5.9Ready For Action: model 8.4% vs market 11.5% (-3.1 points)Ready For Action-3.1Ambulante: model 7.9% vs market 6.6% (+1.3 points)Ambulante+1.3Dr Jack Flyer: model 6.0% vs market 7.7% (-1.7 points)Dr Jack Flyer-1.7Reverend Jack: model 4.9% vs market 5.1% (-0.2 points)Reverend Jack-0.2Mackenzie'S Novva: model 3.1% vs market 4.6% (-1.5 points)Mackenzie'S Novva-1.5Try Try Again: model 2.5% vs market 3.5% (-1.0 points)Try Try Again-1.0Gold Buckle: model 1.4% vs market 2.9% (-1.5 points)Gold Buckle-1.5Trap Line: model 1.4% vs market 2.2% (-0.8 points)Trap Line-0.8Barleewon: model 0.9% vs market 2.2% (-1.2 points)Barleewon-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Nightwind16.6%15.3%+1.3
Major Contender16.5%13.1%+3.3
Zippy Gizmo11.4%4.2%+7.2
Tempus9.5%5.8%+3.8
Mr Hoover9.4%15.3%-5.9
Ready For Action8.4%11.5%-3.1
Ambulante7.9%6.6%+1.3
Dr Jack Flyer6.0%7.7%-1.7
Reverend Jack4.9%5.1%-0.2
Mackenzie'S Novva3.1%4.6%-1.5
Try Try Again2.5%3.5%-1.0
Gold Buckle1.4%2.9%-1.5
Trap Line1.4%2.2%-0.8
Barleewon0.9%2.2%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 14113284
🎯 Longshots: 1411913384271256110
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #11, #9, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 587 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-04-13 to 2026-11-04.

0%21%42%63%83%Our top pick: 66.8% from 587 racesOur top pick66.8%Morning-line favourite: 64.4% from 587 racesMorning-line favourite64.4%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick66.8%587
Morning-line favourite64.4%587
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Prima Donna (1/1)
Place:6Amazon Time (6/1)
Show:8Karma Wins (4/1)
Other contenders:2Cupids Cavalier (20/1), 5Smart Little Lass (10/1), 9Bien Charlie (15/1)
Rest of field:7Whatthecatdraggdin (8/1), 4Offthe Beaten Path (12/1), 3Aintnofearoverhere (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186754
🎯 Longshots: 156438279
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:5Wild Tapit (2/1)
Place:7Rock Star Parking (3/1)
Show:9Lil Breezzy (7/2)
Other contenders:4True Class (7/1), 3Pop Chart (10/1), 8The Shoe Lady (15/1)
Rest of field:2Seems To Whisper (12/1), 1Worth Considering (12/1), 6Goodbye Indy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 579432
🎯 Longshots: 597843126
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:10Dominant Caitlin (2/1)
Place:7Gone A Lil West (3/1)
Show:8This Is Gloria (9/1)
Other contenders:3Invidia Del Coco (6/1), 2Prettyrunner (7/1), 5Thirtyninered (12/1)
Rest of field:1Brand New Dance (15/1), 9Raven's Honor (10/1), 4Greta T (20/1), 6Keydini (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1073285
🎯 Longshots: 10873215946
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:11Chasing Gray (3/1)
Place:6Speaker's Lobby (2/1)
Show:5Be Lucky Again (3/1)
Other contenders:10He's A Daredevil (6/1), 9Finding Candy (9/1), 8State Of Attack (7/1), 12Senor Ruben (10/1)
Rest of field:1Why Me Lord (15/1), 2Klimtster (12/1), 4Wilding Lane (10/1), 7Biscotti (20/1), 3Principote (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61151089
🎯 Longshots: 910116512178243
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #6, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:13Natalia's Rap (5/1)
Place:7Frosted Eclair (3/1)
Show:11Hialeah Hottie (4/1)
Other contenders:1Principia (2/1), 4Lady Hamilton (6/1), 3Denali Rae (9/1), 2Kingston Time (7/1)
Rest of field:6Markswoman (15/1), 12Life Of Saturdays (10/1), 10Stolen Kisses (10/1), 8Gotham Gray (20/1), 9Cana Gris (12/1), 5Secret Seduction (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 17131142
🎯 Longshots: 13117613121049825
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #11, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:9All I Do (2/1)
Place:10Poetic Amy (3/1)
Show:6Retail Therapy (9/1)
Other contenders:2Peaches Point (6/1), 3Power Party (7/1), 4Lunarchy (10/1)
Rest of field:8Political Spin (12/1), 1Honestly (20/1), 7Morning Line News (15/1), 5Q Bond (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9102634
🎯 Longshots: 69108123475
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:4Joker Went Wild (4/1)
Place:5Prince Jeremy (7/5)
Show:6Mexicali Mike (6/1)
Other contenders:8Dembe Zuma (3/1), 1Dave Did It (10/1), 2Mo Snow (15/1)
Rest of field:3Vindicato (12/1), 7K's Red Bull (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 548613
🎯 Longshots: 54681327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:14Nightwind (2/1)
Place:11Major Contender (5/2)
Show:3Mr Hoover (2/1)
Other contenders:8Tempus (7/1), 2Ready For Action (3/1), 12Dr Jack Flyer (5/1), 9Zippy Gizmo (10/1)
Rest of field:4Ambulante (6/1), 13Reverend Jack (8/1), 7Mackenzie's Novva (9/1), 5Try Try Again (12/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 1Trap Line (20/1), 10Gold Buckle (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 141132128
🎯 Longshots: 1411913384271256110
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #11, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #8, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #9 ($1 straight; box #5-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #9, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #10 over #7 ($1 straight; box #10-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #7, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #11 ($1 straight; box #6-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #10, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #13 ($1 straight; box #7-#13 for cover)
Trifecta: #13 over #7, #1, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #9 over #10 ($1 straight; box #9-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #6, #3, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #14 over #11 ($1 straight; box #14-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #14 over #11, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
31Brand New Dance15/1—6.8%+6.0%0.10%$0.10
TOTAL across 1 play:0.1%$0.10
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Prima Donna (1/1)
Place:8Karma Wins (4/1)
Show:6Amazon Time (6/1)
Other contenders:5Smart Little Lass (10/1), 2Cupids Cavalier (20/1), 3Aintnofearoverhere (20/1)
Rest of field:9Bien Charlie (15/1), 7Whatthecatdraggdin (8/1), 4Offthe Beaten Path (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186754
🎯 Longshots: 156438279
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:9Lil Breezzy (7/2)
Place:5Wild Tapit (2/1)
Show:7Rock Star Parking (3/1)
Other contenders:4True Class (7/1), 8The Shoe Lady (15/1), 3Pop Chart (10/1)
Rest of field:2Seems To Whisper (12/1), 1Worth Considering (12/1), 6Goodbye Indy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 597432
🎯 Longshots: 597843126
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:8This Is Gloria (9/1)
Place:7Gone A Lil West (3/1)
Show:10Dominant Caitlin (2/1)
Other contenders:3Invidia Del Coco (6/1), 2Prettyrunner (7/1), 9Raven's Honor (10/1)
Rest of field:5Thirtyninered (12/1), 1Brand New Dance (15/1), 4Greta T (20/1), 6Keydini (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1078329
🎯 Longshots: 10873215946
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #10, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:11Chasing Gray (3/1)
Place:9Finding Candy (9/1)
Show:5Be Lucky Again (3/1)
Other contenders:6Speaker's Lobby (2/1), 8State Of Attack (7/1), 10He's A Daredevil (6/1), 1Why Me Lord (15/1)
Rest of field:12Senor Ruben (10/1), 2Klimtster (12/1), 7Biscotti (20/1), 4Wilding Lane (10/1), 3Principote (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11651089
🎯 Longshots: 910116512178243
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #9, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:13Natalia's Rap (5/1)
Place:11Hialeah Hottie (4/1)
Show:7Frosted Eclair (3/1)
Other contenders:1Principia (2/1), 8Gotham Gray (20/1), 4Lady Hamilton (6/1), 6Markswoman (15/1)
Rest of field:3Denali Rae (9/1), 12Life Of Saturdays (10/1), 2Kingston Time (7/1), 10Stolen Kisses (10/1), 9Cana Gris (12/1), 5Secret Seduction (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11371142
🎯 Longshots: 13117613121049825
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:9All I Do (2/1)
Place:6Retail Therapy (9/1)
Show:4Lunarchy (10/1)
Other contenders:2Peaches Point (6/1), 10Poetic Amy (3/1), 3Power Party (7/1)
Rest of field:8Political Spin (12/1), 1Honestly (20/1), 7Morning Line News (15/1), 5Q Bond (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9102634
🎯 Longshots: 69108123475
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:4Joker Went Wild (4/1)
Place:6Mexicali Mike (6/1)
Show:5Prince Jeremy (7/5)
Other contenders:1Dave Did It (10/1), 8Dembe Zuma (3/1), 3Vindicato (12/1)
Rest of field:7K's Red Bull (20/1), 2Mo Snow (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 548613
🎯 Longshots: 54681327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:14Nightwind (2/1)
Place:11Major Contender (5/2)
Show:12Dr Jack Flyer (5/1)
Other contenders:3Mr Hoover (2/1), 4Ambulante (6/1), 8Tempus (7/1), 2Ready For Action (3/1)
Rest of field:7Mackenzie's Novva (9/1), 9Zippy Gizmo (10/1), 13Reverend Jack (8/1), 5Try Try Again (12/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 1Trap Line (20/1), 10Gold Buckle (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 141132124
🎯 Longshots: 1411913384271256110
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #11, #12, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Prima Donna (1/1)
Place:8Karma Wins (4/1)
Show:6Amazon Time (6/1)
Other contenders:2Cupids Cavalier (20/1), 5Smart Little Lass (10/1), 9Bien Charlie (15/1)
Rest of field:7Whatthecatdraggdin (8/1), 4Offthe Beaten Path (12/1), 3Aintnofearoverhere (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186754
🎯 Longshots: 156438279
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HO · Purse $11,000
Win:5Wild Tapit (2/1)
Place:9Lil Breezzy (7/2)
Show:7Rock Star Parking (3/1)
Other contenders:4True Class (7/1), 3Pop Chart (10/1), 8The Shoe Lady (15/1)
Rest of field:2Seems To Whisper (12/1), 1Worth Considering (12/1), 6Goodbye Indy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 579432
🎯 Longshots: 597843126
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:10Dominant Caitlin (2/1)
Place:7Gone A Lil West (3/1)
Show:3Invidia Del Coco (6/1)
Other contenders:8This Is Gloria (9/1), 2Prettyrunner (7/1), 1Brand New Dance (15/1)
Rest of field:5Thirtyninered (12/1), 9Raven's Honor (10/1), 4Greta T (20/1), 6Keydini (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1073289
🎯 Longshots: 10873215946
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:11Chasing Gray (3/1)
Place:10He's A Daredevil (6/1)
Show:6Speaker's Lobby (2/1)
Other contenders:8State Of Attack (7/1), 5Be Lucky Again (3/1), 9Finding Candy (9/1), 1Why Me Lord (15/1)
Rest of field:2Klimtster (12/1), 3Principote (20/1), 4Wilding Lane (10/1), 7Biscotti (20/1), 12Senor Ruben (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61151089
🎯 Longshots: 910116512178243
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #10, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:13Natalia's Rap (5/1)
Place:7Frosted Eclair (3/1)
Show:1Principia (2/1)
Other contenders:11Hialeah Hottie (4/1), 3Denali Rae (9/1), 2Kingston Time (7/1), 4Lady Hamilton (6/1)
Rest of field:12Life Of Saturdays (10/1), 6Markswoman (15/1), 10Stolen Kisses (10/1), 9Cana Gris (12/1), 8Gotham Gray (20/1), 5Secret Seduction (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 17131142
🎯 Longshots: 13117613121049825
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #1, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:9All I Do (2/1)
Place:6Retail Therapy (9/1)
Show:3Power Party (7/1)
Other contenders:10Poetic Amy (3/1), 8Political Spin (12/1), 2Peaches Point (6/1)
Rest of field:4Lunarchy (10/1), 7Morning Line News (15/1), 1Honestly (20/1), 5Q Bond (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9103264
🎯 Longshots: 69108123475
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:4Joker Went Wild (4/1)
Place:5Prince Jeremy (7/5)
Show:6Mexicali Mike (6/1)
Other contenders:8Dembe Zuma (3/1), 1Dave Did It (10/1), 3Vindicato (12/1)
Rest of field:7K's Red Bull (20/1), 2Mo Snow (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 548613
🎯 Longshots: 54681327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:14Nightwind (2/1)
Place:11Major Contender (5/2)
Show:3Mr Hoover (2/1)
Other contenders:8Tempus (7/1), 2Ready For Action (3/1), 12Dr Jack Flyer (5/1), 9Zippy Gizmo (10/1)
Rest of field:4Ambulante (6/1), 13Reverend Jack (8/1), 7Mackenzie's Novva (9/1), 5Try Try Again (12/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 10Gold Buckle (15/1), 1Trap Line (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 143112128
🎯 Longshots: 1411913384271256110
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #11, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #1 (63%) / R2: #5,#9,#7 (63%) / R3: #10,#7,#3 (61%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#9,#7 (63%) / R3: #10,#7,#3 (61%) / R4: #10,#5,#6 (49%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #13,#11,#7 (62%) / R6: #6,#10,#9 (55%) / R7: #5,#8,#4 (76%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #6,#10,#9 (55%) / R7: #5,#8,#4 (76%) / R8: #14,#11,#9 (45%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #1 (63%) / R2: #5,#9,#7 (63%) / R3: #10,#7,#3 (61%) / R4: #10,#5,#6 (49%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #10,#5,#6 (49%) / R5: #13,#11,#7 (62%) / R6: #6,#10,#9 (55%) / R7: #5,#8,#4 (76%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AINTNOFEAROVERHEREALL I DOAMAZON TIMEAMBULANTEBARLEEWON
BIEN CHARLIEBISCOTTIBRAND NEW DANCECANA GRISCHASING GRAY
DAVE DID ITDEMBE ZUMADENALI RAEDOMINANT CAITLINDR JACK FLYER
FROSTED ECLAIRGOLD BUCKLEGONE A LIL WESTGOODBYE INDYGOTHAM GRAY
HE'S A DAREDEVILHIALEAH HOTTIEHONESTLYINVIDIA DEL COCOJOKER WENT WILD
KARMA WINSKEYDINIKINGSTON TIMEKLIMTSTERLADY HAMILTON
LIL BREEZZYLUNARCHYMACKENZIE'S NOVVAMAJOR CONTENDERMARKSWOMAN
MO SNOWMORNING LINE NEWSMR HOOVERNATALIA'S RAPNIGHTWIND
PEACHES POINTPOETIC AMYPOLITICAL SPINPOP CHARTPOWER PARTY
PRIMA DONNAPRINCE JEREMYPRINCIPIAPRINCIPOTEQ BOND
READY FOR ACTIONRETAIL THERAPYREVEREND JACKROCK STAR PARKINGSECRET SEDUCTION
SENOR RUBENSMART LITTLE LASSSPEAKER'S LOBBYSTATE OF ATTACKSTOLEN KISSES
THE SHOE LADYTHIRTYNINEREDTHIS IS GLORIATRAP LINETRUE CLASS
VINDICATOWHATTHECATDRAGGDINWHY ME LORDWILD TAPITWILDING LANE
ZIPPY GIZMO

 


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