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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Belmont, November 8, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Belmont — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 267 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 35.2% from 267 racesOur top pick35.2%Morning-line favourite: 32.6% from 267 racesMorning-line favourite32.6%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.2%267
Morning-line favourite32.6%267
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Hullabaloo Ray Ray (10/1)
Place:2Its Saturday Night (6/1)
Show:1Rhythm Riot (15/1)
Other contenders:4Johnny Hockey (12/1), 5Bandmaster (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32541
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Twirly (3/1)
Place:8Raging Bloom (5/2)
Show:5Livin The Breeze (7/2)
Other contenders:4Heaven's Bolt (5/1), 7Intothewilderness (6/1), 3Smokin Hot Blonde (8/1)
Rest of field:1On A Summer Day (15/1), 2Lil' Hottie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 685473
🎯 Longshots: 65834712
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Hypnotica (5/2)
Place:6Ifweonlyhavelove (4/1)
Show:3Runyon Canyon (9/2)
Other contenders:4Candidly (7/2), 7Flying Hawley (8/1)
Rest of field:2Yurak (8/1), 5Friendshipandlove (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164372
🎯 Longshots: 1467253
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $48,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Hot Property (7/5)
Place:4Franklin Delano (6/5)
Show:1Chris's Song (8/1)
Other contenders:2Elko County (6/1), 5Private Flight (12/1)
Rest of field:3E Z Bourbon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461253
🎯 Longshots: 645132
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:1Munny Problem (5/2)
Place:5Frenchquarter Note (3/1)
Show:7Eske Castle (2/1)
Other contenders:6Turbo Launch (6/1), 8Battle (8/1), 4Instantly (15/1)
Rest of field:3Crowned Moment (20/1), 2Oligarch (30/1), 9Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 175684
🎯 Longshots: 175648329
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Sellonthenews (2/1)
Place:11Inflect (5/2)
Show:1Royal Victoria (8/1)
Other contenders:9Harmony Mill (8/1), 6Coastal Beauty (12/1), 3Norah Begorrah (12/1), 5Coastal Conflict (20/1)
Rest of field:2Kindness Wins (15/1), 8Golden Ember (20/1), 7Palace Joy (15/1), 10Speak For Yourself (30/1), 12Cotton Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4111963
🎯 Longshots: 411916735281012
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #11, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Time To Win (4/5)
Place:4Dreamlike (5/2)
Show:1Kinetic (8/1)
Other contenders:2Secured Landing (8/1), 3Adero (6/1)
Rest of field:6Noble Heritage (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 541236
🎯 Longshots: 542163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Where's Your Boom (9/5)
Place:3Sfumato (3/1)
Show:6Authentic Legend (6/1)
Other contenders:1True Adirondacker (6/1), 7Mr R T (10/1), 5Chess Match (12/1)
Rest of field:2Big Time Story (12/1), 10Go Dharma (20/1), 8Violin (15/1), 9Thespian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 43761521089
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 221 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%10%20%29%39%Our top pick: 31.2% from 221 racesOur top pick31.2%Expert consensus pick: 28.1% from 221 racesExpert consensus pick28.1%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.2%221
Expert consensus pick28.1%221
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:3Hullabaloo Ray Ray (10/1) 74% · fair 2-5 overlay +2710%
Place:2Its Saturday Night (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -44%
Show:5Bandmaster (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Other contenders:4Johnny Hockey (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 1Rhythm Riot (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -31%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hullabaloo Ray Ray — 73.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Hullabaloo Ray Ray73.8% ◀Its Saturday Night — 8.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Its Saturday Night8.5%Bandmaster — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Bandmaster7.0%Johnny Hockey — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Johnny Hockey6.3%Rhythm Riot — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Rhythm Riot4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hullabaloo Ray Ray73.8%10/1
Its Saturday Night8.5%6/1
Bandmaster7.0%10/1
Johnny Hockey6.3%12/1
Rhythm Riot4.4%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHullabaloo Ray Ray: model 73.8% vs market 19.6% (+54.2 points)Hullabaloo Ray Ray+54.2Its Saturday Night: model 8.5% vs market 30.8% (-22.2 points)Its Saturday Night-22.2Bandmaster: model 7.0% vs market 19.6% (-12.5 points)Bandmaster-12.5Johnny Hockey: model 6.3% vs market 16.6% (-10.3 points)Johnny Hockey-10.3Rhythm Riot: model 4.4% vs market 13.5% (-9.1 points)Rhythm Riot-9.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hullabaloo Ray Ray73.8%19.6%+54.2
Its Saturday Night8.5%30.8%-22.2
Bandmaster7.0%19.6%-12.5
Johnny Hockey6.3%16.6%-10.3
Rhythm Riot4.4%13.5%-9.1
🌧️ Off-track: 32541
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:6Twirly (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +25%
Place:5Livin The Breeze (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:4Heaven's Bolt (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:8Raging Bloom (5/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -56%, 7Intothewilderness (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 3Smokin Hot Blonde (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%
Rest of field:1On A Summer Day (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 2Lil' Hottie (20/1) 1% · fair 102-1 underlay -80%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Twirly — 29.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Twirly29.5% ◀Livin The Breeze — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Livin The Breeze18.6%Heaven'S Bolt — 17.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Heaven'S Bolt17.8%Raging Bloom — 15.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Raging Bloom15.0%Intothewilderness — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Intothewilderness10.4%Smokin Hot Blonde — 4.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Smokin Hot Blonde4.5%On A Summer Day — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1On A Summer Day3.2%Lil' Hottie — 1.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Lil' Hottie1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Twirly29.5%3/1
Livin The Breeze18.6%3.5/1
Heaven'S Bolt17.8%5/1
Raging Bloom15.0%2.5/1
Intothewilderness10.4%6/1
Smokin Hot Blonde4.5%8/1
On A Summer Day3.2%15/1
Lil' Hottie1.0%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTwirly: model 29.5% vs market 19.4% (+10.1 points)Twirly+10.1Livin The Breeze: model 18.6% vs market 17.2% (+1.3 points)Livin The Breeze+1.3Heaven'S Bolt: model 17.8% vs market 12.9% (+4.9 points)Heaven'S Bolt+4.9Raging Bloom: model 15.0% vs market 22.2% (-7.2 points)Raging Bloom-7.2Intothewilderness: model 10.4% vs market 11.1% (-0.7 points)Intothewilderness-0.7Smokin Hot Blonde: model 4.5% vs market 8.6% (-4.1 points)Smokin Hot Blonde-4.1On A Summer Day: model 3.2% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)On A Summer Day-1.6Lil' Hottie: model 1.0% vs market 3.7% (-2.7 points)Lil' Hottie-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Twirly29.5%19.4%+10.1
Livin The Breeze18.6%17.2%+1.3
Heaven'S Bolt17.8%12.9%+4.9
Raging Bloom15.0%22.2%-7.2
Intothewilderness10.4%11.1%-0.7
Smokin Hot Blonde4.5%8.6%-4.1
On A Summer Day3.2%4.8%-1.6
Lil' Hottie1.0%3.7%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 685473
🎯 Longshots: 65834712
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Hypnotica (5/2) 43% · fair 3-2 overlay +90%
Place:3Runyon Canyon (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:6Ifweonlyhavelove (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:2Yurak (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 7Flying Hawley (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:4Candidly (7/2) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -85%, 5Friendshipandlove (5/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -85%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hypnotica — 43.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hypnotica43.2% ◀Runyon Canyon — 16.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Runyon Canyon16.5%Ifweonlyhavelove — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Ifweonlyhavelove14.3%Yurak — 10.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Yurak10.3%Flying Hawley — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Flying Hawley8.7%Candidly — 4.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Candidly4.2%Friendshipandlove — 2.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Friendshipandlove2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hypnotica43.2%2.5/1
Runyon Canyon16.5%4.5/1
Ifweonlyhavelove14.3%4/1
Yurak10.3%8/1
Flying Hawley8.7%8/1
Candidly4.2%3.5/1
Friendshipandlove2.9%5/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHypnotica: model 43.2% vs market 22.3% (+20.9 points)Hypnotica+20.9Runyon Canyon: model 16.5% vs market 14.2% (+2.2 points)Runyon Canyon+2.2Ifweonlyhavelove: model 14.3% vs market 15.6% (-1.4 points)Ifweonlyhavelove-1.4Yurak: model 10.3% vs market 8.7% (+1.6 points)Yurak+1.6Flying Hawley: model 8.7% vs market 8.7% (+0.0 points)Flying Hawley+0.0Candidly: model 4.2% vs market 17.4% (-13.2 points)Candidly-13.2Friendshipandlove: model 2.9% vs market 13.0% (-10.2 points)Friendshipandlove-10.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hypnotica43.2%22.3%+20.9
Runyon Canyon16.5%14.2%+2.2
Ifweonlyhavelove14.3%15.6%-1.4
Yurak10.3%8.7%+1.6
Flying Hawley8.7%8.7%+0.0
Candidly4.2%17.4%-13.2
Friendshipandlove2.9%13.0%-10.2
🌧️ Off-track: 163452
🎯 Longshots: 1467253
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Hot Property (7/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:4Franklin Delano (6/5) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -39%
Show:1Chris's Song (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2
Other contenders:2Elko County (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 5Private Flight (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%
Rest of field:3E Z Bourbon (12/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -66%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hot Property — 39.8% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Hot Property39.8% ◀Franklin Delano — 33.6% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Franklin Delano33.6%Chris'S Song — 10.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Chris'S Song10.3%Elko County — 9.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Elko County9.0%Private Flight — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Private Flight4.5%E Z Bourbon — 2.8% win probability, morning line 12/1E Z Bourbon2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hot Property39.8%1.4/1
Franklin Delano33.6%1.2/1
Chris'S Song10.3%8/1
Elko County9.0%6/1
Private Flight4.5%12/1
E Z Bourbon2.8%12/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHot Property: model 39.8% vs market 32.6% (+7.2 points)Hot Property+7.2Franklin Delano: model 33.6% vs market 35.5% (-2.0 points)Franklin Delano-2.0Chris'S Song: model 10.3% vs market 8.7% (+1.7 points)Chris'S Song+1.7Elko County: model 9.0% vs market 11.2% (-2.1 points)Elko County-2.1Private Flight: model 4.5% vs market 6.0% (-1.5 points)Private Flight-1.5E Z Bourbon: model 2.8% vs market 6.0% (-3.3 points)E Z Bourbon-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hot Property39.8%32.6%+7.2
Franklin Delano33.6%35.5%-2.0
Chris'S Song10.3%8.7%+1.7
Elko County9.0%11.2%-2.1
Private Flight4.5%6.0%-1.5
E Z Bourbon2.8%6.0%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 642153
🎯 Longshots: 645132
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:1Munny Problem (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:5Frenchquarter Note (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:7Eske Castle (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -55%
Other contenders:6Turbo Launch (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2, 8Battle (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 4Instantly (15/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Rest of field:3Crowned Moment (20/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -51%, 2Oligarch (30/1) 2% · fair 65-1 underlay -54%, 9Klimt Master (50/1) 0% · fair 953-2 underlay -90%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Munny Problem — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Munny Problem29.2% ◀Frenchquarter Note — 18.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Frenchquarter Note18.8%Eske Castle — 18.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Eske Castle18.5%Turbo Launch — 15.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Turbo Launch15.5%Battle — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Battle7.2%Instantly — 6.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Instantly6.7%Crowned Moment — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Crowned Moment2.4%Oligarch — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Oligarch1.5%Klimt Master — 0.2% win probability, morning line 50/1Klimt Master0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Munny Problem29.2%2.5/1
Frenchquarter Note18.8%3/1
Eske Castle18.5%2/1
Turbo Launch15.5%6/1
Battle7.2%8/1
Instantly6.7%15/1
Crowned Moment2.4%20/1
Oligarch1.5%30/1
Klimt Master0.2%50/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMunny Problem: model 29.2% vs market 22.2% (+6.9 points)Munny Problem+6.9Frenchquarter Note: model 18.8% vs market 19.5% (-0.6 points)Frenchquarter Note-0.6Eske Castle: model 18.5% vs market 25.9% (-7.5 points)Eske Castle-7.5Turbo Launch: model 15.5% vs market 11.1% (+4.4 points)Turbo Launch+4.4Battle: model 7.2% vs market 8.6% (-1.5 points)Battle-1.5Instantly: model 6.7% vs market 4.9% (+1.9 points)Instantly+1.9Crowned Moment: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Crowned Moment-1.3Oligarch: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Oligarch-1.0Klimt Master: model 0.2% vs market 1.5% (-1.3 points)Klimt Master-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Munny Problem29.2%22.2%+6.9
Frenchquarter Note18.8%19.5%-0.6
Eske Castle18.5%25.9%-7.5
Turbo Launch15.5%11.1%+4.4
Battle7.2%8.6%-1.5
Instantly6.7%4.9%+1.9
Crowned Moment2.4%3.7%-1.3
Oligarch1.5%2.5%-1.0
Klimt Master0.2%1.5%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 175684
🎯 Longshots: 175648329
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:11Inflect (5/2) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +30%
Place:4Sellonthenews (2/1) 32% · fair 2-1
Show:1Royal Victoria (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Other contenders:9Harmony Mill (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -26%, 5Coastal Conflict (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 6Coastal Beauty (12/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -55%, 3Norah Begorrah (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -56%
Rest of field:8Golden Ember (20/1) 1% · fair 68-1 underlay -71%, 10Speak For Yourself (30/1) 1% · fair 175-2 underlay -66%, 2Kindness Wins (15/1) 1% · fair 219-2 underlay -86%, 7Palace Joy (15/1) 1% · fair 267-2 underlay -89%, 12Cotton Queen (20/1) 0% · fair 203-1 underlay -90%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Inflect — 34.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Inflect34.2% ◀Sellonthenews — 31.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Sellonthenews31.6%Royal Victoria — 10.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Royal Victoria10.0%Harmony Mill — 8.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Harmony Mill8.4%Coastal Conflict — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Coastal Conflict3.8%Coastal Beauty — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Coastal Beauty3.6%Norah Begorrah — 3.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Norah Begorrah3.5%Golden Ember — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Golden Ember1.4%Speak For Yourself — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Speak For Yourself1.1%Kindness Wins — 0.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Kindness Wins0.9%Palace Joy — 0.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Palace Joy0.7%Cotton Queen — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Cotton Queen0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Inflect34.2%2.5/1
Sellonthenews31.6%2/1
Royal Victoria10.0%8/1
Harmony Mill8.4%8/1
Coastal Conflict3.8%20/1
Coastal Beauty3.6%12/1
Norah Begorrah3.5%12/1
Golden Ember1.4%20/1
Speak For Yourself1.1%30/1
Kindness Wins0.9%15/1
Palace Joy0.7%15/1
Cotton Queen0.5%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherInflect: model 34.2% vs market 22.1% (+12.1 points)Inflect+12.1Sellonthenews: model 31.6% vs market 25.7% (+5.9 points)Sellonthenews+5.9Royal Victoria: model 10.0% vs market 8.6% (+1.4 points)Royal Victoria+1.4Harmony Mill: model 8.4% vs market 8.6% (-0.1 points)Harmony Mill-0.1Coastal Conflict: model 3.8% vs market 3.7% (+0.1 points)Coastal Conflict+0.1Coastal Beauty: model 3.6% vs market 5.9% (-2.3 points)Coastal Beauty-2.3Norah Begorrah: model 3.5% vs market 5.9% (-2.4 points)Norah Begorrah-2.4Golden Ember: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.2 points)Golden Ember-2.2Speak For Yourself: model 1.1% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Speak For Yourself-1.4Kindness Wins: model 0.9% vs market 4.8% (-3.9 points)Kindness Wins-3.9Palace Joy: model 0.7% vs market 4.8% (-4.1 points)Palace Joy-4.1Cotton Queen: model 0.5% vs market 3.7% (-3.2 points)Cotton Queen-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Inflect34.2%22.1%+12.1
Sellonthenews31.6%25.7%+5.9
Royal Victoria10.0%8.6%+1.4
Harmony Mill8.4%8.6%-0.1
Coastal Conflict3.8%3.7%+0.1
Coastal Beauty3.6%5.9%-2.3
Norah Begorrah3.5%5.9%-2.4
Golden Ember1.4%3.7%-2.2
Speak For Yourself1.1%2.5%-1.4
Kindness Wins0.9%4.8%-3.9
Palace Joy0.7%4.8%-4.1
Cotton Queen0.5%3.7%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 4111963
🎯 Longshots: 411916735281012
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:5Time To Win (4/5) 35% · fair 2-1 underlay -57%
Place:4Dreamlike (5/2) 31% · fair 5-2
Show:1Kinetic (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:2Secured Landing (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 3Adero (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%
Rest of field:6Noble Heritage (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Time To Win — 34.9% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Time To Win34.9% ◀Dreamlike — 30.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Dreamlike30.7%Kinetic — 12.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Kinetic12.0%Secured Landing — 10.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Secured Landing10.8%Adero — 8.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Adero8.0%Noble Heritage — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Noble Heritage3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Time To Win34.9%0.8/1
Dreamlike30.7%2.5/1
Kinetic12.0%8/1
Secured Landing10.8%8/1
Adero8.0%6/1
Noble Heritage3.7%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTime To Win: model 34.9% vs market 43.8% (-8.9 points)Time To Win-8.9Dreamlike: model 30.7% vs market 22.5% (+8.1 points)Dreamlike+8.1Kinetic: model 12.0% vs market 8.8% (+3.2 points)Kinetic+3.2Secured Landing: model 10.8% vs market 8.8% (+2.0 points)Secured Landing+2.0Adero: model 8.0% vs market 11.3% (-3.2 points)Adero-3.2Noble Heritage: model 3.7% vs market 4.9% (-1.3 points)Noble Heritage-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Time To Win34.9%43.8%-8.9
Dreamlike30.7%22.5%+8.1
Kinetic12.0%8.8%+3.2
Secured Landing10.8%8.8%+2.0
Adero8.0%11.3%-3.2
Noble Heritage3.7%4.9%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 543126
🎯 Longshots: 542163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,000
Win:3Sfumato (3/1) 33% · fair 2-1 overlay +47%
Place:4Where's Your Boom (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -42%
Show:6Authentic Legend (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:1True Adirondacker (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 7Mr R T (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 5Chess Match (12/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:2Big Time Story (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%, 10Go Dharma (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%, 8Violin (15/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -67%, 9Thespian (30/1) 1% · fair 155-2 underlay -61%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sfumato — 32.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Sfumato32.9% ◀Where'S Your Boom — 24.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Where'S Your Boom24.5%Authentic Legend — 12.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Authentic Legend12.5%True Adirondacker — 9.1% win probability, morning line 6/1True Adirondacker9.1%Mr R T — 6.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Mr R T6.0%Chess Match — 5.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Chess Match5.0%Big Time Story — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Big Time Story4.0%Go Dharma — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Go Dharma2.6%Violin — 2.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Violin2.1%Thespian — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Thespian1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sfumato32.9%3/1
Where'S Your Boom24.5%1.8/1
Authentic Legend12.5%6/1
True Adirondacker9.1%6/1
Mr R T6.0%10/1
Chess Match5.0%12/1
Big Time Story4.0%12/1
Go Dharma2.6%20/1
Violin2.1%15/1
Thespian1.3%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSfumato: model 32.9% vs market 19.5% (+13.4 points)Sfumato+13.4Where'S Your Boom: model 24.5% vs market 27.9% (-3.4 points)Where'S Your Boom-3.4Authentic Legend: model 12.5% vs market 11.2% (+1.3 points)Authentic Legend+1.3True Adirondacker: model 9.1% vs market 11.2% (-2.1 points)True Adirondacker-2.1Mr R T: model 6.0% vs market 7.1% (-1.1 points)Mr R T-1.1Chess Match: model 5.0% vs market 6.0% (-1.0 points)Chess Match-1.0Big Time Story: model 4.0% vs market 6.0% (-2.0 points)Big Time Story-2.0Go Dharma: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Go Dharma-1.1Violin: model 2.1% vs market 4.9% (-2.7 points)Violin-2.7Thespian: model 1.3% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Thespian-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sfumato32.9%19.5%+13.4
Where'S Your Boom24.5%27.9%-3.4
Authentic Legend12.5%11.2%+1.3
True Adirondacker9.1%11.2%-2.1
Mr R T6.0%7.1%-1.1
Chess Match5.0%6.0%-1.0
Big Time Story4.0%6.0%-2.0
Go Dharma2.6%3.7%-1.1
Violin2.1%4.9%-2.7
Thespian1.3%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 346175
🎯 Longshots: 43761521089
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 223 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%10%20%29%39%Our top pick: 31.4% from 223 racesOur top pick31.4%Expert consensus pick: 27.8% from 223 racesExpert consensus pick27.8%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.4%223
Expert consensus pick27.8%223
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:3Hullabaloo Ray Ray (10/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Its Saturday Night (6/1)
Show:4Johnny Hockey (12/1)
Other contenders:5Bandmaster (10/1), 1Rhythm Riot (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32541
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:5Livin The Breeze (7/2)
Place:6Twirly (3/1)
Show:4Heaven's Bolt (5/1)
Other contenders:8Raging Bloom (5/2), 7Intothewilderness (6/1), 3Smokin Hot Blonde (8/1)
Rest of field:1On A Summer Day (15/1), 2Lil' Hottie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 865473
🎯 Longshots: 65834712
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Hypnotica (5/2)
Place:4Candidly (7/2)
Show:6Ifweonlyhavelove (4/1)
Other contenders:3Runyon Canyon (9/2), 2Yurak (8/1)
Rest of field:5Friendshipandlove (5/1), 7Flying Hawley (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146352
🎯 Longshots: 1467253
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Hot Property (7/5)
Place:4Franklin Delano (6/5)
Show:1Chris's Song (8/1)
Other contenders:2Elko County (6/1), 5Private Flight (12/1)
Rest of field:3E Z Bourbon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462153
🎯 Longshots: 645132
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:7Eske Castle (2/1)
Place:1Munny Problem (5/2)
Show:5Frenchquarter Note (3/1)
Other contenders:6Turbo Launch (6/1), 8Battle (8/1), 4Instantly (15/1)
Rest of field:3Crowned Moment (20/1), 2Oligarch (30/1), 9Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715684
🎯 Longshots: 175648329
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Sellonthenews (2/1)
Place:11Inflect (5/2)
Show:9Harmony Mill (8/1)
Other contenders:1Royal Victoria (8/1), 5Coastal Conflict (20/1), 3Norah Begorrah (12/1), 6Coastal Beauty (12/1)
Rest of field:8Golden Ember (20/1), 7Palace Joy (15/1), 2Kindness Wins (15/1), 10Speak For Yourself (30/1), 12Cotton Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4119136
🎯 Longshots: 411916735281012
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #11, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:5Time To Win (4/5)
Place:4Dreamlike (5/2)
Show:1Kinetic (8/1)
Other contenders:2Secured Landing (8/1), 3Adero (6/1)
Rest of field:6Noble Heritage (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543126
🎯 Longshots: 542163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,000
Win:4Where's Your Boom (9/5)
Place:3Sfumato (3/1)
Show:6Authentic Legend (6/1)
Other contenders:1True Adirondacker (6/1), 5Chess Match (12/1), 7Mr R T (10/1)
Rest of field:10Go Dharma (20/1), 2Big Time Story (12/1), 8Violin (15/1), 9Thespian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 43761521089
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #11 ($1 straight; box #4-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #11, #9, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #4, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
65Coastal Conflict ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.5%+-21.4%0.00%$0.00
59Klimt Master ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer50/1—1.3%+-27.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.0%$0.00
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:3Hullabaloo Ray Ray (10/1)
Place:4Johnny Hockey (12/1)
Show:2Its Saturday Night (6/1)
Other contenders:1Rhythm Riot (15/1), 5Bandmaster (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:5Livin The Breeze (7/2)
Place:6Twirly (3/1)
Show:3Smokin Hot Blonde (8/1)
Other contenders:4Heaven's Bolt (5/1), 8Raging Bloom (5/2), 7Intothewilderness (6/1)
Rest of field:1On A Summer Day (15/1), 2Lil' Hottie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 658437
🎯 Longshots: 65834712
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Hypnotica (5/2)
Place:4Candidly (7/2)
Show:7Flying Hawley (8/1)
Other contenders:2Yurak (8/1), 6Ifweonlyhavelove (4/1)
Rest of field:3Runyon Canyon (9/2), 5Friendshipandlove (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146372
🎯 Longshots: 1467253
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Hot Property (7/5)
Place:4Franklin Delano (6/5)
Show:1Chris's Song (8/1)
Other contenders:2Elko County (6/1), 5Private Flight (12/1)
Rest of field:3E Z Bourbon (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642153
🎯 Longshots: 645132
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:7Eske Castle (2/1)
Place:5Frenchquarter Note (3/1)
Show:1Munny Problem (5/2)
Other contenders:6Turbo Launch (6/1), 8Battle (8/1), 4Instantly (15/1)
Rest of field:3Crowned Moment (20/1), 9Klimt Master (50/1), 2Oligarch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715684
🎯 Longshots: 175648329
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:11Inflect (5/2)
Place:4Sellonthenews (2/1)
Show:1Royal Victoria (8/1)
Other contenders:6Coastal Beauty (12/1), 9Harmony Mill (8/1), 7Palace Joy (15/1), 3Norah Begorrah (12/1)
Rest of field:5Coastal Conflict (20/1), 2Kindness Wins (15/1), 12Cotton Queen (20/1), 8Golden Ember (20/1), 10Speak For Yourself (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4111963
🎯 Longshots: 411916735281012
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:5Time To Win (4/5)
Place:4Dreamlike (5/2)
Show:1Kinetic (8/1)
Other contenders:3Adero (6/1), 2Secured Landing (8/1)
Rest of field:6Noble Heritage (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543126
🎯 Longshots: 542163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,000
Win:4Where's Your Boom (9/5)
Place:3Sfumato (3/1)
Show:10Go Dharma (20/1)
Other contenders:6Authentic Legend (6/1), 1True Adirondacker (6/1), 5Chess Match (12/1)
Rest of field:7Mr R T (10/1), 2Big Time Story (12/1), 8Violin (15/1), 9Thespian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 43761521089
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #10, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $105,000
Win:3Hullabaloo Ray Ray (10/1)
Place:2Its Saturday Night (6/1)
Show:4Johnny Hockey (12/1)
Other contenders:5Bandmaster (10/1), 1Rhythm Riot (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32541
🎯 Longshots: 34215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/8 Miles · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:8Raging Bloom (5/2)
Place:5Livin The Breeze (7/2)
Show:6Twirly (3/1)
Other contenders:4Heaven's Bolt (5/1), 7Intothewilderness (6/1), 3Smokin Hot Blonde (8/1)
Rest of field:1On A Summer Day (15/1), 2Lil' Hottie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 865473
🎯 Longshots: 65834712
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Hypnotica (5/2)
Place:2Yurak (8/1)
Show:3Runyon Canyon (9/2)
Other contenders:4Candidly (7/2), 6Ifweonlyhavelove (4/1)
Rest of field:7Flying Hawley (8/1), 5Friendshipandlove (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146325
🎯 Longshots: 1467253
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Hot Property (7/5)
Place:4Franklin Delano (6/5)
Show:2Elko County (6/1)
Other contenders:1Chris's Song (8/1), 3E Z Bourbon (12/1)
Rest of field:5Private Flight (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 462135
🎯 Longshots: 645132
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:1Munny Problem (5/2)
Place:7Eske Castle (2/1)
Show:5Frenchquarter Note (3/1)
Other contenders:6Turbo Launch (6/1), 8Battle (8/1), 3Crowned Moment (20/1)
Rest of field:4Instantly (15/1), 2Oligarch (30/1), 9Klimt Master (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715684
🎯 Longshots: 175648329
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:4Sellonthenews (2/1)
Place:11Inflect (5/2)
Show:9Harmony Mill (8/1)
Other contenders:1Royal Victoria (8/1), 6Coastal Beauty (12/1), 5Coastal Conflict (20/1), 3Norah Begorrah (12/1)
Rest of field:2Kindness Wins (15/1), 8Golden Ember (20/1), 7Palace Joy (15/1), 10Speak For Yourself (30/1), 12Cotton Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4119163
🎯 Longshots: 411916735281012
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #11, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:5Time To Win (4/5)
Place:4Dreamlike (5/2)
Show:1Kinetic (8/1)
Other contenders:2Secured Landing (8/1), 3Adero (6/1)
Rest of field:6Noble Heritage (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 541326
🎯 Longshots: 542163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,000
Win:4Where's Your Boom (9/5)
Place:3Sfumato (3/1)
Show:6Authentic Legend (6/1)
Other contenders:5Chess Match (12/1), 1True Adirondacker (6/1), 7Mr R T (10/1)
Rest of field:10Go Dharma (20/1), 2Big Time Story (12/1), 8Violin (15/1), 9Thespian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436157
🎯 Longshots: 43761521089
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#4 (66%) / R3: #1,#3,#6 (74%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #6,#4 (73%) / R5: #1,#5,#7 (66%) / R6: #11,#4 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#5,#7 (66%) / R6: #11,#4 (66%) / R7: #5,#4 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #11,#4 (66%) / R7: #5,#4 (66%) / R8: #3,#4,#6 (70%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#4 (66%) / R3: #1,#3,#6 (74%) / R4: #6,#4 (73%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #6,#4 (73%) / R5: #1,#5,#7 (66%) / R6: #11,#4 (66%) / R7: #5,#4 (66%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADEROAUTHENTIC LEGENDBANDMASTERBATTLEBIG TIME STORY
CHESS MATCHCHRIS'S SONGCOASTAL BEAUTYCOASTAL CONFLICTCOTTON QUEEN
DREAMLIKEE Z BOURBONELKO COUNTYESKE CASTLEFLYING HAWLEY
FRENCHQUARTER NOTEFRIENDSHIPANDLOVEGO DHARMAGOLDEN EMBERHARMONY MILL
HOT PROPERTYHULLABALOO RAY RAYHYPNOTICAIFWEONLYHAVELOVEINFLECT
INTOTHEWILDERNESSITS SATURDAY NIGHTJOHNNY HOCKEYKINDNESS WINSKINETIC
LIL' HOTTIELIVIN THE BREEZEMR R TMUNNY PROBLEMNOBLE HERITAGE
OLIGARCHON A SUMMER DAYPALACE JOYPRIVATE FLIGHTRAGING BLOOM
ROYAL VICTORIARUNYON CANYONSECURED LANDINGSELLONTHENEWSSFUMATO
SPEAK FOR YOURSELFTHESPIANTIME TO WINTRUE ADIRONDACKERTURBO LAUNCH
VIOLINWHERE'S YOUR BOOMYURAK

 


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