Mahoning Valley – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 19, 2025

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Mahoning Valley presents an eight-race card on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, featuring a mix of claiming, maiden, allowance, and starter races exclusively contested over the dirt surface. The card begins at 12:15 PM EST and features modest purse levels ranging from $10,900 to $31,800, typical of the regional track’s winter racing operations. The scratch watch shows several notable withdrawals including Dance Drama in Race 1, Wild Mariah in Race 2, and multiple entries in later races that have reshaped the betting landscape. The track is currently in its winter meet that runs from January through April 2025, with competitive racing despite the lower-level claiming conditions.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for November 19, 2025, calls for partly sunny conditions with a high near 47 degrees Fahrenheit and light northeast winds. This represents improved conditions following Tuesday’s weather that saw snow and rain earlier in the week. Current track conditions show light rain with temperatures at 38 degrees, SSE winds at 5 mph, and 73 percent humidity, though the forecast indicates clearing skies for race day. The dirt surface should be rated fast or potentially good depending on overnight moisture retention from the earlier precipitation.​

Post position statistics at Mahoning Valley reveal a moderate inside bias, particularly in sprint races where posts one through four produce higher win percentages. The configuration features relatively short stretches that limit closing ground, making early positioning crucial for success. Horses breaking from outside posts in route races face additional challenges navigating the turns while attempting to secure favorable position.​

Race 1: Claiming $10,000 – Ohio Bred Fillies and Mares

Post Time

12:15 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This six-furlong claiming sprint for Ohio-bred fillies and mares features a small field of six runners at the $10,000 level. The pace should be moderate with no confirmed speed-of-speed scenarios based on the field composition. Kingdom Trails from the three post and Rollin Freedom from the rail both show tactical speed that could establish early positioning. The inside bias at Mahoning Valley becomes particularly relevant in this sprint configuration where saving ground through the turn provides significant advantage.​

Key Contenders

Kingdom Trails draws favorably in post three for trainer Jevon Crumley and jockey Angel Diaz. The three-year-old filly brings tactical speed that should secure ideal stalking position behind the pace. The weight allowance at 124 pounds for a three-year-old provides relief against older rivals carrying 126 pounds. The Crumley barn maintains solid form at the meet with consistent runners across claiming levels.

Razzberry Ripple represents trainer Robert Gorham, who ranks among the leading trainers at Mahoning Valley with eight wins from 35 starts during the current meet. The three-year-old filly with Luis Raul Rivera aboard benefits from the two-pound weight allowance for non-winners since October 19, dropping to 122 pounds. The Gorham-Rivera combination produces consistent results at the track throughout the season.​

Secondary Choices

Rollin Freedom breaks from the advantageous rail position for trainer Saul Morales with Noel Vigil in the irons. The four-year-old filly gets first run at the pace from the inside draw, which historically produces the highest win percentage at Mahoning Valley in sprint races. The early positioning advantage from post one could prove decisive if the filly shows early speed.​

Credit Check represents another Gorham trainee in this field, creating a coupled entry situation. The three-year-old filly with Fernando Salazar Becerra carries 122 pounds and benefits from the same weight allowances as Razzberry Ripple. Salazar Becerra ranks second among leading jockeys at the meet with 10 wins from 68 starts.​

Betting Strategy

The race sets up as a competitive claiming sprint with multiple logical contenders. Focus on exacta and trifecta combinations using the Gorham coupled entry as the foundation, particularly keying Kingdom Trails on top due to the favorable post position and tactical speed. Consider small win wagers on Kingdom Trails given the advantageous draw and ability to secure ideal stalking position.

Selections

Win: Kingdom Trails
Place: Razzberry Ripple
Show: Rollin Freedom

Race 2: Claiming $10,000 – Ohio Bred Fillies and Mares

Post Time

12:43 PM EST

Pace Analysis

The second race presents another six-furlong claiming sprint for Ohio-bred fillies and mares at the $10,000 level with seven runners. The pace appears moderate with multiple fillies showing tactical speed. E Kracker from the rail and Count On Me from post two both possess early speed that should establish the early fractions. The compact field allows for straightforward pace scenarios without complications from large field dynamics.

Key Contenders

E Kracker draws the advantageous rail position for trainer Larry Smith with Luciano Hernandez piloting. The three-year-old filly benefits from the two-pound weight allowance, carrying 122 pounds against older rivals at 124 pounds. The inside post provides ground-saving opportunities throughout the sprint distance and allows the filly to control her destiny from the rail.​

Count On Me represents trainer Saul Morales with jockey Chelsey Keiser aboard. The three-year-old filly breaks from post two, another advantageous inside position that facilitates early positioning. The 122-pound impost provides relief, and the filly shows tactical speed that should secure stalking position behind the early pace.

Secondary Choices

Most Adorable earned spot play consideration from handicappers for today’s card at 5-1 morning line odds. The five-year-old mare with Edgar Paucar aboard carries 124 pounds from post six. While the outside post creates positioning challenges, the mare shows versatility in running style that could prove effective if the pace develops favorably.​

Wings of Heaven for trainer Richard Genovese represents another viable contender in this competitive field. The four-year-old filly with Miguel Martinez aboard breaks from post five at 124 pounds. The mid-pack position allows for flexibility in race tactics depending on pace development.

Betting Strategy

Structure wagers around the inside speed of E Kracker and Count On Me, using both fillies in exacta and trifecta combinations. The rail post for E Kracker provides significant advantage in this sprint configuration. Consider including Most Adorable as a value overlay given the spot play recommendation at generous morning line odds.​

Selections

Win: E Kracker
Place: Count On Me
Show: Most Adorable

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight – Ohio Bred Two-Year-Old Fillies

Post Time

1:11 PM EST

Pace Analysis

This maiden special weight sprint for Ohio-bred two-year-old fillies features seven runners competing at six furlongs. Juvenile maidens typically show unpredictable pace dynamics as young horses learn racing fundamentals. First-time starters and lightly raced fillies dominate the field, creating uncertainty in pace projections. The race should develop with moderate fractions as trainers protect young horses early in their careers.

Key Contenders

Power Vision represents trainer Robert Cline with Victor Fernandez in the saddle. The two-year-old filly breaks from post four, providing tactical flexibility to assess the pace before committing. Cline ranks among leading trainers at Mahoning Valley with six wins from 52 starts during the current meet. Fernandez continues strong riding form at the track with multiple recent victories.​

Mshawish’girl draws the rail for the same Cline barn, creating a coupled entry with Power Vision. Fernando Salazar Becerra pilots the two-year-old filly from the advantageous inside post. The rail position provides ground-saving opportunities crucial for inexperienced juveniles learning to rate properly.​

Secondary Choices

No Napping for trainer Jay Bernardini represents a solid barn that has historically dominated Mahoning Valley meets. Luis Alberto Batista pilots the two-year-old filly from post three. Bernardini captured leading trainer titles at previous meets with consistent performance across all divisions.​

Grimes Glen breaks from post two for trainer David Wolochuk with Chelsey Keiser aboard. The inside draw provides advantages similar to the Cline entry, and Keiser shows solid form at the meet with consistent performances.

Betting Strategy

The Cline coupled entry provides value in this maiden sprint with two logical chances from favorable post positions. Structure exacta and trifecta wagers using both Cline fillies prominently, adding No Napping from the Bernardini barn as a third component. The unpredictability of juvenile maidens suggests conservative wagering approaches focusing on place and show positions.

Selections

Win: Power Vision
Place: Mshawish’girl
Show: No Napping

Race 4: Claiming $4,000

Post Time

1:39 PM EST

Pace Analysis

The fourth race features an eight-horse field competing at six furlongs in a $4,000 claiming sprint for horses that have not won since November 19. This bottom-level claiming race typically produces competitive fields with horses of similar ability. The pace should be contested with multiple runners showing early speed including Practical Man and Silver Style. The compressed claiming level creates parity throughout the field.

Key Contenders

Maxwell Esquire brings experience to this field as an eight-year-old horse for trainer Jay Bernardini with Erik Barbaran aboard. The gelding carries 126 pounds from post three, providing tactical positioning flexibility. Bernardini maintains solid form at the meet across all divisions. Barbaran ranks among the top riders at Mahoning Valley with consistent performance throughout recent meets.​

Broadway Jones represents another experienced campaigner at eight years old for trainer Mary Hurley with David Haldar piloting. The gelding breaks from post four at 126 pounds. The mid-pack position allows the veteran to assess pace dynamics before making his move.

Secondary Choices

Mexitexafornia draws post five for trainer Jevon Crumley with Chelsey Keiser aboard. The four-year-old colt carries 126 pounds and shows tactical speed that could prove effective from the mid-pack position. The lighter racing background compared to veteran rivals suggests potential upside.

Silver Style for trainer Joseph Poole with Jose Bracho riding breaks from post two. Bracho leads the jockey standings at Mahoning Valley with 12 wins from 64 starts during the current meet. The inside post provides ground-saving advantages crucial at this claiming level.​

Betting Strategy

The bottom-level claiming race creates wagering challenges due to form inconsistency. Focus on exacta boxes using Maxwell Esquire and Broadway Jones as experienced runners with proven ability at the level. Include Silver Style with leading rider Bracho as a value component. Consider small show wagers on multiple horses given the competitive nature of the field.

Selections

Win: Maxwell Esquire
Place: Broadway Jones
Show: Silver Style

Race 5: Claiming $5,000

Post Time

2:07 PM EST

Pace Analysis

Race five presents the largest field of the card with 12 runners plus one auxiliary entry competing at six furlongs for a $5,000 claiming tag. The expanded field creates complex pace scenarios with multiple speed horses including Rock the Red and Tapakena likely contesting early fractions. The inside bias becomes particularly pronounced in large fields where outside posts face significant disadvantages navigating traffic. The compact nature of the race should produce honest fractions.​

Key Contenders

Rock the Red draws the advantageous rail position for trainer Robert Gorham with Victor Fernandez aboard. The five-year-old gelding benefits from the two-pound weight allowance for non-winners since October 19, carrying 124 pounds. The rail post provides maximum ground-saving opportunities in the largest field of the day. The Gorham-Fernandez combination produces consistent results at the meet.​

Canavero represents trainer Joseph Poole with leading rider Jose Bracho piloting from post three. The four-year-old colt carries 124 pounds from an ideal inside position. Bracho leads the jockey standings with 12 wins from 64 starts. The inside post three provides tactical flexibility while maintaining ground-saving advantages.​

Secondary Choices

Mr. American breaks from post five for trainer Jay Bernardini with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. The five-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from a manageable mid-pack position. Bernardini maintains strong form across all divisions at the track.​

Libertango draws post four for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett with Alejandro Gomez riding. The five-year-old gelding at 124 pounds benefits from the central starting position that allows tactical flexibility. The Skerrett barn operates at solid levels during the current meet.

Betting Strategy

The large field necessitates selective wagering focusing on horses with favorable post positions. Structure exacta and trifecta combinations using Rock the Red and Canavero as primary components given the advantageous inside draws with top connections. Include Mr. American from the Bernardini barn as additional coverage. Consider pick three and pick four wagers beginning with this race given the clear standouts with post position advantages.

Selections

Win: Rock the Red
Place: Canavero
Show: Mr. American

Race 6: Maiden Claiming $15,000 – Ohio Bred Fillies and Mares

Post Time

2:35 PM EST

Pace Analysis

The sixth race features nine Ohio-bred maiden fillies and mares competing at 5.5 furlongs for a $15,000 claiming price. The abbreviated distance creates premium value for early speed, with fillies breaking quickly from the gate gaining significant advantages. The pace should be contested with multiple fillies showing early tactical speed. The reduced distance amplifies the importance of the inside post bias at Mahoning Valley.​

Key Contenders

Dollar Dance represents trainer Saul Morales with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard from post five. The three-year-old filly carries 124 pounds from a manageable position that allows tactical flexibility. Salazar Becerra ranks second in the jockey standings with 10 wins from 68 starts. The mid-pack draw provides options for various race scenarios.​

Collect Gold breaks from post two for trainer Justin Radosevich with leading rider Jose Bracho piloting. The four-year-old filly carries 126 pounds from the advantageous inside position. Bracho’s leading rider status combined with the inside post creates significant advantages. The post two position provides ground-saving opportunities throughout the abbreviated distance.​

Secondary Choices

Justworthashot for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Victor Fernandez aboard draws post three. The four-year-old filly carries 126 pounds from another favorable inside position. Fernandez continues strong form at the meet with multiple recent victories.​

Dianna’s Lady represents trainer Jay Bernardini with Erik Barbaran riding from post nine. The three-year-old filly carries 124 pounds but faces significant challenges from the outside post in this sprint configuration. The Bernardini-Barbaran combination maintains strong form despite the unfavorable draw.​

Betting Strategy

Focus wagering on the inside posts given the abbreviated 5.5-furlong distance that magnifies post position advantages. Structure exacta and trifecta combinations using Collect Gold and Justworthashot as primary components with Dollar Dance as supporting coverage. The outside posts face prohibitive disadvantages at this distance. Consider straight wagers on Collect Gold given the leading rider and favorable post combination.

Selections

Win: Collect Gold
Place: Justworthashot
Show: Dollar Dance

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time

3:03 PM EST

Pace Analysis

Race seven presents an allowance optional claiming event at six furlongs with seven runners. The conditions restrict entries to horses that have never won three races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio bred, or have never won four races. The claiming option at $25,000 adds complexity to the field composition. The pace should be honest with multiple runners showing tactical speed. Pensacola and Knicks Glory both show early speed that should establish competitive fractions.

Key Contenders

Lucky Jeremy draws post two for trainer Caryn Vecchio with Alexander Chavez piloting. The four-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from the advantageous inside position. The post two draw provides tactical positioning advantages while maintaining ground-saving opportunities.​

Knicks Glory represents trainer Ben Colebrook with Jose Bracho aboard from post three. The three-year-old colt benefits from the two-pound weight allowance, carrying 122 pounds. Bracho leads the jockey standings at the meet. The inside post combined with the leading rider and weight relief creates favorable conditions.​

Secondary Choices

Pensacola breaks from post four for trainer William Cowans with Yan Aviles riding. The five-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from a central position that allows tactical flexibility. The mid-pack draw facilitates various race scenarios depending on pace development.

Mighty Les draws post seven for trainer Raquel Castro with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. The four-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from the outside post. Salazar Becerra ranks second in the jockey standings, providing skilled piloting despite the unfavorable draw.​

Betting Strategy

The allowance optional claiming structure creates competitive fields with horses of varying ability levels. Structure exacta and trifecta combinations using Lucky Jeremy and Knicks Glory as foundation components given the favorable inside posts with top connections. Include Pensacola from the mid-pack position as additional coverage. The race provides opportunities for value given the competitive field composition.

Selections

Win: Knicks Glory
Place: Lucky Jeremy
Show: Pensacola

Race 8: Starter Allowance

Post Time

3:31 PM EST

Pace Analysis

The closing race features a starter allowance at six furlongs for horses that have started for a claiming price of $5,000 or less in 2024-2025. The nine-horse field presents competitive racing with horses of similar recent claiming backgrounds. The pace should be contested with multiple runners showing early speed. Pearl of Aclaim and Little Vaquero both possess tactical speed that should establish early positioning.

Key Contenders

Trikitraki represents trainer Jay Bernardini with Erik Barbaran aboard from post eight. The six-year-old gelding carries 126 pounds from the outside position. The Bernardini-Barbaran combination maintains consistent form throughout the meet despite the unfavorable outside draw.​

He’s in Charge draws post seven for trainer Jamie Ness with Martin Chuan piloting. The seven-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from another outside position. Morning line odds suggest the gelding as a potential favorite based on recent form.​

Secondary Choices

Reinvest breaks from post five for trainer Gary Johnson with Deshawn Parker aboard. The five-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds from a central position that provides tactical flexibility. The mid-pack draw allows the gelding to assess pace dynamics before committing.

Little Vaquero represents trainer Donaciano Gonzalez with Noel Vigil riding from post six. The five-year-old gelding carries 126 pounds from a manageable position. The gelding shows tactical speed that could prove effective from the mid-pack position.

Betting Strategy

The starter allowance creates competitive fields with horses of proven claiming backgrounds. Structure exacta and trifecta combinations using multiple horses given the competitive nature of the field. Focus on horses with recent form improvements and skilled rider connections. Consider exacta boxes using He’s in Charge, Trikitraki, and Reinvest as primary components.

Selections

Win: He’s in Charge
Place: Trikitraki
Show: Reinvest

Jockey Notes and Insights

Jose Bracho leads the jockey standings at Mahoning Valley with 12 wins from 64 starts during the current meet, producing strong earnings of $272,802. The leading rider maintains consistency across all race conditions and shows particular effectiveness with inside post positions. Bracho rides four times on today’s card including mounts in competitive claiming races.​

Fernando Salazar Becerra ranks second in the standings with 10 wins from 68 starts and $240,000 in earnings. The veteran rider shows versatility across all divisions and maintains strong partnerships with leading trainers including Robert Gorham and Saul Morales. Salazar Becerra rides multiple times on today’s card with several logical contenders.​

Victor Fernandez continues strong form at the meet with multiple recent victories including a win on November 17. The rider shows effectiveness on both maidens and experienced horses, maintaining solid connections with leading barns including Robert Cline.​

Erik Barbaran previously earned national Jockey of the Week honors for outstanding performance at Mahoning Valley with impressive win percentages. The rider maintains strong form throughout the current meet with consistent partnerships with trainer Jay Bernardini.​

Luis Alberto Batista partners frequently with Jay Bernardini and shows effectiveness across all race conditions. The rider demonstrates tactical versatility and strong finishing kicks on closers.

Chelsey Keiser maintains steady form throughout the meet with consistent performances on various types of horses. The rider shows effectiveness on both speed horses and closers depending on race scenarios.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Robert Gorham leads the trainer standings at Mahoning Valley with eight wins from 35 starts, earning $263,512 during the current meet. The veteran conditioner maintains high win percentages throughout his career with 2,334 wins from 13,935 starts. Gorham shows particular effectiveness with claiming horses and Ohio-bred runners, saddling multiple entries on today’s card across various race levels.​

Jay Bernardini historically dominated Mahoning Valley meets, capturing leading trainer titles at previous meets with 25 wins or more. The trainer maintains strong form across all divisions and shows versatility with both maidens and experienced campaigners. Bernardini saddles multiple entries on today’s card including contenders in the maiden and claiming races.​

Robert Cline ranks third in the trainer standings with six wins from 52 starts and $223,635 in earnings. The trainer shows consistency across multiple race types and maintains strong partnerships with leading riders including Victor Fernandez and Fernando Salazar Becerra.​

Saul Morales operates at solid levels throughout the meet with consistent runners across claiming and maiden divisions. The trainer shows effectiveness with fillies and mares, particularly in Ohio-bred restricted events.

Joseph Poole maintains steady form with multiple runners throughout the card. The trainer shows partnerships with leading riders including Jose Bracho, maximizing opportunities with horses at various claiming levels.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Today’s Mahoning Valley card presents multiple wagering opportunities focused on inside post positions and leading trainer-jockey combinations. The track bias favoring inside posts becomes particularly pronounced in sprint races where posts one through four produce significantly higher win percentages.​

Focus pick three and pick four wagers on races featuring clear standouts with favorable post positions. Race 5 with Rock the Red from the rail provides an anchor point for multi-race sequences. Combine with logical contenders in surrounding races to construct playable tickets at reasonable costs.

Exacta and trifecta wagering should emphasize horses breaking from inside posts, particularly in sprint races where ground-saving advantages prove decisive. Structure tickets using multiple horses from posts one through four while minimizing exposure to outside posts unless horses show overwhelming class advantages.

Value opportunities exist in maiden races where field inexperience creates betting overlays. The coupled entries from leading trainers provide value when one horse draws significantly better post positions than the other. Monitor morning line odds and adjust wagering strategies based on final odds movements at post time.

The claiming races present competitive fields where multiple horses possess realistic winning chances. Focus on horses with leading jockeys aboard from favorable post positions rather than attempting to separate marginal class differences. The starter allowance and allowance optional claiming races show similar competitive dynamics requiring selective wagering approaches.

Daily double and pick three wagers provide opportunities to leverage strong opinions in individual races into profitable multi-race sequences. Use logical race favorites as single positions while spreading in competitive races to construct balanced tickets. The eight-race card allows for rolling pick three strategies throughout the afternoon.

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