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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, November 11, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 355 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-09.

0%10%19%29%39%Our top pick: 31.0% from 355 racesOur top pick31.0%Morning-line favourite: 27.9% from 355 racesMorning-line favourite27.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.0%355
Morning-line favourite27.9%355
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1True Essence (5/2)
Place:4Charge Me (3/1)
Show:7Family Crest (7/2)
Other contenders:6Toll Booth Willy (4/1), 2Apotheon (5/1)
Rest of field:3Beach Vibe (12/1), 5Electric Indian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147623
🎯 Longshots: 1476235
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $41,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Infinite Speed (2/1)
Place:5Four Star General (7/2)
Show:4Ta Ta Today Junior (6/1)
Other contenders:6Mi Sargento (3/1), 3Barca Billy (6/1)
Rest of field:1Powerful Justice (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254631
🎯 Longshots: 245631
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $25,160
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:13Ribadeo (5/1)
Place:5Cloudy Lass (4/1)
Show:8British Empress (6/1)
Other contenders:9Candle's Legacy (10/1), 11Tidal Tactics (6/1), 2Oak Alley (12/1), 3Union Empress (8/1)
Rest of field:1Lyric Street (10/1), 12Princess Buttercup (8/1), 7Miss Teca (12/1), 14Dreaming Collect (12/1), 6Dreaming Why (10/1), 10Vee's Reason (20/1), 4Jack's Yellow Rose (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 51389113
🎯 Longshots: 9131814521237611104
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #5, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Fat Chance (5/2)
Place:4Sakra's Quest (4/1)
Show:2Indiana Smoke Show (4/1)
Other contenders:7Eye Shadow (4/1), 5Molly's Potion (5/1)
Rest of field:3Barb's Vortex (8/1), 1Color Me Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642753
🎯 Longshots: 6437215
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Which Side R U On (3/1)
Place:7Troubleonthegreen (7/2)
Show:4Forever Greedy (6/1)
Other contenders:8Governor Ron (4/1), 6Zach (5/1), 9Adios Ashwood (12/1), 2Brazilian Conexao (12/1)
Rest of field:5Positive Change (15/1), 3Thousands Of Hopes (15/1), 10Mystik Justice (15/1), 11Nineteenfourtyfive (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174869
🎯 Longshots: 1592741036811
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:8Tricked You (5/1)
Show:3Red Clay Runaway (6/1)
Other contenders:4Bignetti (9/2), 2Blues Rocker (8/1), 5Cyber Runner (8/1)
Rest of field:9Comeonwithit (8/1), 7Suspenders (20/1), 1Mr Thunderous (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 683425
🎯 Longshots: 629453871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $23,800
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Never Really Know (4/1)
Place:4Risk And Regret (9/2)
Show:6Differently (8/1)
Other contenders:2Choate (5/1), 9White Lilacs (6/1), 8Purring (8/1), 3She's Fascinating (15/1)
Rest of field:7Pink Moon (15/1), 10My Wish (10/1), 12Roaring Vixen (10/1), 5Sassy Allie (25/1), 11Rafaella (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142698
🎯 Longshots: 614731289102511
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Hot Middles (3/1)
Place:8Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Show:5The Kid Pataky (8/1)
Other contenders:2Bits Of Candy (8/1), 9Imagine The Moon (6/1), 1Temple Paynter (10/1)
Rest of field:6Rich In Faith (10/1), 4Littleransomsfire (6/1), 7City Prayers (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 385291
🎯 Longshots: 315286794
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Tiva (9/5)
Place:8Well Hey There (5/2)
Show:5Pious (3/1)
Other contenders:6Whistlewhileuwork (8/1), 2Indy Tryst (20/1), 3Onelilconquest (20/1)
Rest of field:1Pear (20/1), 9Deep Dreams (20/1), 7Apple Biscuit (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485623
🎯 Longshots: 485632179
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 262 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-11-09.

0%19%39%58%77%Our top pick: 61.8% from 262 racesOur top pick61.8%Morning-line favourite: 58.8% from 262 racesMorning-line favourite58.8%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick61.8%262
Morning-line favourite58.8%262
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1True Essence (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:2Apotheon (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +27%
Show:6Toll Booth Willy (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:7Family Crest (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%, 4Charge Me (3/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -74%
Rest of field:3Beach Vibe (12/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -52%, 5Electric Indian (20/1) 1% · fair 277-2 underlay -86%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

True Essence — 33.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1True Essence33.0% ◀Apotheon — 20.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Apotheon20.3%Toll Booth Willy — 18.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Toll Booth Willy18.5%Family Crest — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Family Crest15.7%Charge Me — 7.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Charge Me7.9%Beach Vibe — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Beach Vibe3.9%Electric Indian — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Electric Indian0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
True Essence33.0%2.5/1
Apotheon20.3%5/1
Toll Booth Willy18.5%4/1
Family Crest15.7%3.5/1
Charge Me7.9%3/1
Beach Vibe3.9%12/1
Electric Indian0.7%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTrue Essence: model 33.0% vs market 22.9% (+10.1 points)True Essence+10.1Apotheon: model 20.3% vs market 13.3% (+7.0 points)Apotheon+7.0Toll Booth Willy: model 18.5% vs market 16.0% (+2.5 points)Toll Booth Willy+2.5Family Crest: model 15.7% vs market 17.8% (-2.1 points)Family Crest-2.1Charge Me: model 7.9% vs market 20.0% (-12.1 points)Charge Me-12.1Beach Vibe: model 3.9% vs market 6.2% (-2.3 points)Beach Vibe-2.3Electric Indian: model 0.7% vs market 3.8% (-3.1 points)Electric Indian-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
True Essence33.0%22.9%+10.1
Apotheon20.3%13.3%+7.0
Toll Booth Willy18.5%16.0%+2.5
Family Crest15.7%17.8%-2.1
Charge Me7.9%20.0%-12.1
Beach Vibe3.9%6.2%-2.3
Electric Indian0.7%3.8%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 167243
🎯 Longshots: 1476235
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $41,000
Win:2Infinite Speed (2/1) 42% · fair 3-2 overlay +43%
Place:5Four Star General (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%
Show:4Ta Ta Today Junior (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:6Mi Sargento (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -60%, 3Barca Billy (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:1Powerful Justice (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -58%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Infinite Speed — 41.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Infinite Speed41.7% ◀Four Star General — 17.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Four Star General17.0%Ta Ta Today Junior — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Ta Ta Today Junior13.2%Mi Sargento — 11.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Mi Sargento11.6%Barca Billy — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Barca Billy10.0%Powerful Justice — 6.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Powerful Justice6.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Infinite Speed41.7%2/1
Four Star General17.0%3.5/1
Ta Ta Today Junior13.2%6/1
Mi Sargento11.6%3/1
Barca Billy10.0%6/1
Powerful Justice6.5%6/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherInfinite Speed: model 41.7% vs market 27.0% (+14.7 points)Infinite Speed+14.7Four Star General: model 17.0% vs market 18.0% (-1.0 points)Four Star General-1.0Ta Ta Today Junior: model 13.2% vs market 11.6% (+1.7 points)Ta Ta Today Junior+1.7Mi Sargento: model 11.6% vs market 20.3% (-8.6 points)Mi Sargento-8.6Barca Billy: model 10.0% vs market 11.6% (-1.6 points)Barca Billy-1.6Powerful Justice: model 6.5% vs market 11.6% (-5.1 points)Powerful Justice-5.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Infinite Speed41.7%27.0%+14.7
Four Star General17.0%18.0%-1.0
Ta Ta Today Junior13.2%11.6%+1.7
Mi Sargento11.6%20.3%-8.6
Barca Billy10.0%11.6%-1.6
Powerful Justice6.5%11.6%-5.1
🌧️ Off-track: 256431
🎯 Longshots: 245631
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $25,160
Win:13Ribadeo (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Place:8British Empress (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +33%
Show:5Cloudy Lass (4/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -44%
Other contenders:9Candle's Legacy (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 3Union Empress (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 2Oak Alley (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -26%, 11Tidal Tactics (6/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -64%
Rest of field:12Princess Buttercup (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 1Lyric Street (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%, 7Miss Teca (12/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -46%, 14Dreaming Collect (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%, 6Dreaming Why (10/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -75%, 10Vee's Reason (20/1) 2% · fair 63-1 underlay -68%, 4Jack's Yellow Rose (25/1) 1% · fair 229-2 underlay -78%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ribadeo — 19.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Ribadeo19.2% ◀British Empress — 18.2% win probability, morning line 6/1British Empress18.2%Cloudy Lass — 12.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Cloudy Lass12.3%Candle'S Legacy — 9.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Candle'S Legacy9.5%Union Empress — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Union Empress7.1%Oak Alley — 5.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Oak Alley5.8%Tidal Tactics — 5.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Tidal Tactics5.7%Princess Buttercup — 4.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Princess Buttercup4.7%Lyric Street — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Lyric Street4.4%Miss Teca — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Miss Teca4.3%Dreaming Collect — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Dreaming Collect4.0%Dreaming Why — 2.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Dreaming Why2.5%Vee'S Reason — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Vee'S Reason1.6%Jack'S Yellow Rose — 0.9% win probability, morning line 25/1Jack'S Yellow Rose0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ribadeo19.2%5/1
British Empress18.2%6/1
Cloudy Lass12.3%4/1
Candle'S Legacy9.5%10/1
Union Empress7.1%8/1
Oak Alley5.8%12/1
Tidal Tactics5.7%6/1
Princess Buttercup4.7%8/1
Lyric Street4.4%10/1
Miss Teca4.3%12/1
Dreaming Collect4.0%12/1
Dreaming Why2.5%10/1
Vee'S Reason1.6%20/1
Jack'S Yellow Rose0.9%25/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRibadeo: model 19.2% vs market 11.4% (+7.8 points)Ribadeo+7.8British Empress: model 18.2% vs market 9.8% (+8.4 points)British Empress+8.4Cloudy Lass: model 12.3% vs market 13.7% (-1.4 points)Cloudy Lass-1.4Candle'S Legacy: model 9.5% vs market 6.2% (+3.3 points)Candle'S Legacy+3.3Union Empress: model 7.1% vs market 7.6% (-0.4 points)Union Empress-0.4Oak Alley: model 5.8% vs market 5.3% (+0.5 points)Oak Alley+0.5Tidal Tactics: model 5.7% vs market 9.8% (-4.0 points)Tidal Tactics-4.0Princess Buttercup: model 4.7% vs market 7.6% (-2.9 points)Princess Buttercup-2.9Lyric Street: model 4.4% vs market 6.2% (-1.8 points)Lyric Street-1.8Miss Teca: model 4.3% vs market 5.3% (-0.9 points)Miss Teca-0.9Dreaming Collect: model 4.0% vs market 5.3% (-1.3 points)Dreaming Collect-1.3Dreaming Why: model 2.5% vs market 6.2% (-3.8 points)Dreaming Why-3.8Vee'S Reason: model 1.6% vs market 3.3% (-1.7 points)Vee'S Reason-1.7Jack'S Yellow Rose: model 0.9% vs market 2.6% (-1.8 points)Jack'S Yellow Rose-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ribadeo19.2%11.4%+7.8
British Empress18.2%9.8%+8.4
Cloudy Lass12.3%13.7%-1.4
Candle'S Legacy9.5%6.2%+3.3
Union Empress7.1%7.6%-0.4
Oak Alley5.8%5.3%+0.5
Tidal Tactics5.7%9.8%-4.0
Princess Buttercup4.7%7.6%-2.9
Lyric Street4.4%6.2%-1.8
Miss Teca4.3%5.3%-0.9
Dreaming Collect4.0%5.3%-1.3
Dreaming Why2.5%6.2%-3.8
Vee'S Reason1.6%3.3%-1.7
Jack'S Yellow Rose0.9%2.6%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 13851193
🎯 Longshots: 9131814521237611104
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #8, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Sakra's Quest (4/1) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +110%
Place:6Fat Chance (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -27%
Show:2Indiana Smoke Show (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:7Eye Shadow (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -38%, 5Molly's Potion (5/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -60%
Rest of field:3Barb's Vortex (8/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -68%, 1Color Me Fast (15/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -66%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sakra'S Quest — 34.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Sakra'S Quest34.5% ◀Fat Chance — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Fat Chance22.6%Indiana Smoke Show — 16.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Indiana Smoke Show16.0%Eye Shadow — 13.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Eye Shadow13.5%Molly'S Potion — 7.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Molly'S Potion7.4%Barb'S Vortex — 3.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Barb'S Vortex3.9%Color Me Fast — 2.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Color Me Fast2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sakra'S Quest34.5%4/1
Fat Chance22.6%2.5/1
Indiana Smoke Show16.0%4/1
Eye Shadow13.5%4/1
Molly'S Potion7.4%5/1
Barb'S Vortex3.9%8/1
Color Me Fast2.2%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSakra'S Quest: model 34.5% vs market 16.3% (+18.2 points)Sakra'S Quest+18.2Fat Chance: model 22.6% vs market 23.3% (-0.7 points)Fat Chance-0.7Indiana Smoke Show: model 16.0% vs market 16.3% (-0.3 points)Indiana Smoke Show-0.3Eye Shadow: model 13.5% vs market 16.3% (-2.8 points)Eye Shadow-2.8Molly'S Potion: model 7.4% vs market 13.6% (-6.2 points)Molly'S Potion-6.2Barb'S Vortex: model 3.9% vs market 9.1% (-5.2 points)Barb'S Vortex-5.2Color Me Fast: model 2.2% vs market 5.1% (-2.9 points)Color Me Fast-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sakra'S Quest34.5%16.3%+18.2
Fat Chance22.6%23.3%-0.7
Indiana Smoke Show16.0%16.3%-0.3
Eye Shadow13.5%16.3%-2.8
Molly'S Potion7.4%13.6%-6.2
Barb'S Vortex3.9%9.1%-5.2
Color Me Fast2.2%5.1%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 462753
🎯 Longshots: 6437215
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Which Side R U On (3/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:7Troubleonthegreen (7/2) 17% · fair 9-2 underlay -26%
Show:4Forever Greedy (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:8Governor Ron (4/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -63%, 9Adios Ashwood (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 6Zach (5/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -67%, 2Brazilian Conexao (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:5Positive Change (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 3Thousands Of Hopes (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -44%, 10Mystik Justice (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%, 11Nineteenfourtyfive (8/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -76%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Which Side R U On — 27.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Which Side R U On27.0% ◀Troubleonthegreen — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Troubleonthegreen17.5%Forever Greedy — 13.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Forever Greedy13.6%Governor Ron — 8.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Governor Ron8.4%Adios Ashwood — 7.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Adios Ashwood7.6%Zach — 6.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Zach6.1%Brazilian Conexao — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Brazilian Conexao5.2%Positive Change — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Positive Change5.0%Thousands Of Hopes — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Thousands Of Hopes3.6%Mystik Justice — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Mystik Justice3.2%Nineteenfourtyfive — 2.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Nineteenfourtyfive2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Which Side R U On27.0%3/1
Troubleonthegreen17.5%3.5/1
Forever Greedy13.6%6/1
Governor Ron8.4%4/1
Adios Ashwood7.6%12/1
Zach6.1%5/1
Brazilian Conexao5.2%12/1
Positive Change5.0%15/1
Thousands Of Hopes3.6%15/1
Mystik Justice3.2%15/1
Nineteenfourtyfive2.9%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWhich Side R U On: model 27.0% vs market 17.4% (+9.6 points)Which Side R U On+9.6Troubleonthegreen: model 17.5% vs market 15.5% (+2.0 points)Troubleonthegreen+2.0Forever Greedy: model 13.6% vs market 10.0% (+3.6 points)Forever Greedy+3.6Governor Ron: model 8.4% vs market 13.9% (-5.5 points)Governor Ron-5.5Adios Ashwood: model 7.6% vs market 5.4% (+2.2 points)Adios Ashwood+2.2Zach: model 6.1% vs market 11.6% (-5.5 points)Zach-5.5Brazilian Conexao: model 5.2% vs market 5.4% (-0.1 points)Brazilian Conexao-0.1Positive Change: model 5.0% vs market 4.4% (+0.6 points)Positive Change+0.6Thousands Of Hopes: model 3.6% vs market 4.4% (-0.8 points)Thousands Of Hopes-0.8Mystik Justice: model 3.2% vs market 4.4% (-1.2 points)Mystik Justice-1.2Nineteenfourtyfive: model 2.9% vs market 7.7% (-4.9 points)Nineteenfourtyfive-4.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Which Side R U On27.0%17.4%+9.6
Troubleonthegreen17.5%15.5%+2.0
Forever Greedy13.6%10.0%+3.6
Governor Ron8.4%13.9%-5.5
Adios Ashwood7.6%5.4%+2.2
Zach6.1%11.6%-5.5
Brazilian Conexao5.2%5.4%-0.1
Positive Change5.0%4.4%+0.6
Thousands Of Hopes3.6%4.4%-0.8
Mystik Justice3.2%4.4%-1.2
Nineteenfourtyfive2.9%7.7%-4.9
🌧️ Off-track: 1748611
🎯 Longshots: 1592741036811
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:6Victory On Ice (2/1) 47% · fair 1-1 overlay +81%
Place:8Tricked You (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%
Show:3Red Clay Runaway (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:4Bignetti (9/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -59%, 2Blues Rocker (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 5Cyber Runner (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%
Rest of field:9Comeonwithit (8/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -64%, 7Suspenders (20/1) 1% · fair 78-1 underlay -74%, 1Mr Thunderous (30/1) 1% · fair 168-1 underlay -82%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Victory On Ice — 47.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Victory On Ice47.5% ◀Tricked You — 12.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Tricked You12.6%Red Clay Runaway — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Red Clay Runaway10.6%Bignetti — 8.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Bignetti8.4%Blues Rocker — 7.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Blues Rocker7.7%Cyber Runner — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Cyber Runner7.2%Comeonwithit — 4.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Comeonwithit4.3%Suspenders — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Suspenders1.3%Mr Thunderous — 0.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Mr Thunderous0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Victory On Ice47.5%2/1
Tricked You12.6%5/1
Red Clay Runaway10.6%6/1
Bignetti8.4%4.5/1
Blues Rocker7.7%8/1
Cyber Runner7.2%8/1
Comeonwithit4.3%8/1
Suspenders1.3%20/1
Mr Thunderous0.6%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVictory On Ice: model 47.5% vs market 26.9% (+20.6 points)Victory On Ice+20.6Tricked You: model 12.6% vs market 13.5% (-0.9 points)Tricked You-0.9Red Clay Runaway: model 10.6% vs market 11.5% (-1.0 points)Red Clay Runaway-1.0Bignetti: model 8.4% vs market 14.7% (-6.3 points)Bignetti-6.3Blues Rocker: model 7.7% vs market 9.0% (-1.3 points)Blues Rocker-1.3Cyber Runner: model 7.2% vs market 9.0% (-1.8 points)Cyber Runner-1.8Comeonwithit: model 4.3% vs market 9.0% (-4.7 points)Comeonwithit-4.7Suspenders: model 1.3% vs market 3.8% (-2.6 points)Suspenders-2.6Mr Thunderous: model 0.6% vs market 2.6% (-2.0 points)Mr Thunderous-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Victory On Ice47.5%26.9%+20.6
Tricked You12.6%13.5%-0.9
Red Clay Runaway10.6%11.5%-1.0
Bignetti8.4%14.7%-6.3
Blues Rocker7.7%9.0%-1.3
Cyber Runner7.2%9.0%-1.8
Comeonwithit4.3%9.0%-4.7
Suspenders1.3%3.8%-2.6
Mr Thunderous0.6%2.6%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 684325
🎯 Longshots: 629453871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:1Never Really Know (4/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +37%
Place:4Risk And Regret (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:2Choate (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -26%
Other contenders:6Differently (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 9White Lilacs (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 8Purring (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%, 3She's Fascinating (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1
Rest of field:10My Wish (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%, 12Roaring Vixen (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -56%, 7Pink Moon (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -46%, 5Sassy Allie (25/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -43%, 11Rafaella (25/1) 1% · fair 115-1 underlay -78%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Never Really Know — 25.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Never Really Know25.5% ◀Risk And Regret — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Risk And Regret15.7%Choate — 12.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Choate12.9%Differently — 12.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Differently12.0%White Lilacs — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1White Lilacs8.2%Purring — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Purring5.6%She'S Fascinating — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1She'S Fascinating5.0%My Wish — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1My Wish4.5%Roaring Vixen — 4.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Roaring Vixen4.2%Pink Moon — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Pink Moon3.5%Sassy Allie — 2.2% win probability, morning line 25/1Sassy Allie2.2%Rafaella — 0.9% win probability, morning line 25/1Rafaella0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Never Really Know25.5%4/1
Risk And Regret15.7%4.5/1
Choate12.9%5/1
Differently12.0%8/1
White Lilacs8.2%6/1
Purring5.6%8/1
She'S Fascinating5.0%15/1
My Wish4.5%10/1
Roaring Vixen4.2%10/1
Pink Moon3.5%15/1
Sassy Allie2.2%25/1
Rafaella0.9%25/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNever Really Know: model 25.5% vs market 15.4% (+10.1 points)Never Really Know+10.1Risk And Regret: model 15.7% vs market 14.0% (+1.7 points)Risk And Regret+1.7Choate: model 12.9% vs market 12.8% (+0.0 points)Choate+0.0Differently: model 12.0% vs market 8.6% (+3.4 points)Differently+3.4White Lilacs: model 8.2% vs market 11.0% (-2.8 points)White Lilacs-2.8Purring: model 5.6% vs market 8.6% (-3.0 points)Purring-3.0She'S Fascinating: model 5.0% vs market 4.8% (+0.1 points)She'S Fascinating+0.1My Wish: model 4.5% vs market 7.0% (-2.5 points)My Wish-2.5Roaring Vixen: model 4.2% vs market 7.0% (-2.8 points)Roaring Vixen-2.8Pink Moon: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.4 points)Pink Moon-1.4Sassy Allie: model 2.2% vs market 3.0% (-0.7 points)Sassy Allie-0.7Rafaella: model 0.9% vs market 3.0% (-2.1 points)Rafaella-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Never Really Know25.5%15.4%+10.1
Risk And Regret15.7%14.0%+1.7
Choate12.9%12.8%+0.0
Differently12.0%8.6%+3.4
White Lilacs8.2%11.0%-2.8
Purring5.6%8.6%-3.0
She'S Fascinating5.0%4.8%+0.1
My Wish4.5%7.0%-2.5
Roaring Vixen4.2%7.0%-2.8
Pink Moon3.5%4.8%-1.4
Sassy Allie2.2%3.0%-0.7
Rafaella0.9%3.0%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 142698
🎯 Longshots: 614731289102511
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Hot Middles (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:8Werk It Wendy (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:9Imagine The Moon (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:5The Kid Pataky (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 2Bits Of Candy (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -25%, 1Temple Paynter (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:4Littleransomsfire (6/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -57%, 6Rich In Faith (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -41%, 7City Prayers (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hot Middles — 26.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Hot Middles26.1% ◀Werk It Wendy — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Werk It Wendy18.6%Imagine The Moon — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Imagine The Moon11.6%The Kid Pataky — 10.7% win probability, morning line 8/1The Kid Pataky10.7%Bits Of Candy — 8.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Bits Of Candy8.5%Temple Paynter — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Temple Paynter7.1%Littleransomsfire — 6.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Littleransomsfire6.7%Rich In Faith — 5.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Rich In Faith5.6%City Prayers — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1City Prayers5.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hot Middles26.1%3/1
Werk It Wendy18.6%3.5/1
Imagine The Moon11.6%6/1
The Kid Pataky10.7%8/1
Bits Of Candy8.5%8/1
Temple Paynter7.1%10/1
Littleransomsfire6.7%6/1
Rich In Faith5.6%10/1
City Prayers5.2%12/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHot Middles: model 26.1% vs market 20.2% (+5.9 points)Hot Middles+5.9Werk It Wendy: model 18.6% vs market 17.9% (+0.7 points)Werk It Wendy+0.7Imagine The Moon: model 11.6% vs market 11.5% (+0.1 points)Imagine The Moon+0.1The Kid Pataky: model 10.7% vs market 9.0% (+1.7 points)The Kid Pataky+1.7Bits Of Candy: model 8.5% vs market 9.0% (-0.4 points)Bits Of Candy-0.4Temple Paynter: model 7.1% vs market 7.3% (-0.3 points)Temple Paynter-0.3Littleransomsfire: model 6.7% vs market 11.5% (-4.8 points)Littleransomsfire-4.8Rich In Faith: model 5.6% vs market 7.3% (-1.8 points)Rich In Faith-1.8City Prayers: model 5.2% vs market 6.2% (-1.0 points)City Prayers-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hot Middles26.1%20.2%+5.9
Werk It Wendy18.6%17.9%+0.7
Imagine The Moon11.6%11.5%+0.1
The Kid Pataky10.7%9.0%+1.7
Bits Of Candy8.5%9.0%-0.4
Temple Paynter7.1%7.3%-0.3
Littleransomsfire6.7%11.5%-4.8
Rich In Faith5.6%7.3%-1.8
City Prayers5.2%6.2%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 389542
🎯 Longshots: 315286794
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Well Hey There (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:4Tiva (9/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -40%
Show:5Pious (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Other contenders:6Whistlewhileuwork (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 2Indy Tryst (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%, 3Onelilconquest (20/1) 2% · fair 105-2 underlay -62%
Rest of field:1Pear (20/1) 2% · fair 65-1 underlay -69%, 9Deep Dreams (20/1) 1% · fair 96-1 underlay -79%, 7Apple Biscuit (20/1) 1% · fair 103-1 underlay -81%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Well Hey There — 33.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Well Hey There33.0% ◀Tiva — 25.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Tiva25.1%Pious — 23.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Pious23.9%Whistlewhileuwork — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Whistlewhileuwork10.6%Indy Tryst — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Indy Tryst2.0%Onelilconquest — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Onelilconquest1.9%Pear — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Pear1.5%Deep Dreams — 1.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Deep Dreams1.0%Apple Biscuit — 1.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Apple Biscuit1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Well Hey There33.0%2.5/1
Tiva25.1%1.8/1
Pious23.9%3/1
Whistlewhileuwork10.6%8/1
Indy Tryst2.0%20/1
Onelilconquest1.9%20/1
Pear1.5%20/1
Deep Dreams1.0%20/1
Apple Biscuit1.0%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWell Hey There: model 33.0% vs market 23.0% (+10.0 points)Well Hey There+10.0Tiva: model 25.1% vs market 28.8% (-3.6 points)Tiva-3.6Pious: model 23.9% vs market 20.1% (+3.8 points)Pious+3.8Whistlewhileuwork: model 10.6% vs market 8.9% (+1.7 points)Whistlewhileuwork+1.7Indy Tryst: model 2.0% vs market 3.8% (-1.9 points)Indy Tryst-1.9Onelilconquest: model 1.9% vs market 3.8% (-2.0 points)Onelilconquest-2.0Pear: model 1.5% vs market 3.8% (-2.3 points)Pear-2.3Deep Dreams: model 1.0% vs market 3.8% (-2.8 points)Deep Dreams-2.8Apple Biscuit: model 1.0% vs market 3.8% (-2.9 points)Apple Biscuit-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Well Hey There33.0%23.0%+10.0
Tiva25.1%28.8%-3.6
Pious23.9%20.1%+3.8
Whistlewhileuwork10.6%8.9%+1.7
Indy Tryst2.0%3.8%-1.9
Onelilconquest1.9%3.8%-2.0
Pear1.5%3.8%-2.3
Deep Dreams1.0%3.8%-2.8
Apple Biscuit1.0%3.8%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 845623
🎯 Longshots: 485632179
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1True Essence (5/2)
Place:7Family Crest (7/2)
Show:2Apotheon (5/1)
Other contenders:6Toll Booth Willy (4/1), 4Charge Me (3/1)
Rest of field:3Beach Vibe (12/1), 5Electric Indian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174623
🎯 Longshots: 1476235
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $41,000
Win:2Infinite Speed (2/1)
Place:4Ta Ta Today Junior (6/1)
Show:5Four Star General (7/2)
Other contenders:6Mi Sargento (3/1), 3Barca Billy (6/1)
Rest of field:1Powerful Justice (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256431
🎯 Longshots: 245631
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $25,160
Win:13Ribadeo (5/1)
Place:8British Empress (6/1)
Show:5Cloudy Lass (4/1)
Other contenders:9Candle's Legacy (10/1), 1Lyric Street (10/1), 2Oak Alley (12/1), 11Tidal Tactics (6/1)
Rest of field:12Princess Buttercup (8/1), 14Dreaming Collect (12/1), 6Dreaming Why (10/1), 3Union Empress (8/1), 7Miss Teca (12/1), 10Vee's Reason (20/1), 4Jack's Yellow Rose (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 513811129
🎯 Longshots: 9131814521237611104
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #8, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:6Fat Chance (5/2)
Place:4Sakra's Quest (4/1)
Show:7Eye Shadow (4/1)
Other contenders:2Indiana Smoke Show (4/1), 3Barb's Vortex (8/1)
Rest of field:5Molly's Potion (5/1), 1Color Me Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 647253
🎯 Longshots: 6437215
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Which Side R U On (3/1)
Place:2Brazilian Conexao (12/1)
Show:7Troubleonthegreen (7/2)
Other contenders:4Forever Greedy (6/1), 6Zach (5/1), 9Adios Ashwood (12/1), 5Positive Change (15/1)
Rest of field:8Governor Ron (4/1), 10Mystik Justice (15/1), 3Thousands Of Hopes (15/1), 11Nineteenfourtyfive (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 176482
🎯 Longshots: 1592741036811
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:6Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:8Tricked You (5/1)
Show:4Bignetti (9/2)
Other contenders:3Red Clay Runaway (6/1), 5Cyber Runner (8/1), 2Blues Rocker (8/1)
Rest of field:9Comeonwithit (8/1), 7Suspenders (20/1), 1Mr Thunderous (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 648352
🎯 Longshots: 629453871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:1Never Really Know (4/1)
Place:6Differently (8/1)
Show:4Risk And Regret (9/2)
Other contenders:9White Lilacs (6/1), 2Choate (5/1), 8Purring (8/1), 7Pink Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:10My Wish (10/1), 3She's Fascinating (15/1), 12Roaring Vixen (10/1), 5Sassy Allie (25/1), 11Rafaella (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142968
🎯 Longshots: 614731289102511
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Hot Middles (3/1)
Place:8Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Show:5The Kid Pataky (8/1)
Other contenders:9Imagine The Moon (6/1), 2Bits Of Candy (8/1), 1Temple Paynter (10/1)
Rest of field:6Rich In Faith (10/1), 4Littleransomsfire (6/1), 7City Prayers (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 389524
🎯 Longshots: 315286794
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Well Hey There (5/2)
Place:4Tiva (9/5)
Show:5Pious (3/1)
Other contenders:6Whistlewhileuwork (8/1), 2Indy Tryst (20/1), 3Onelilconquest (20/1)
Rest of field:1Pear (20/1), 7Apple Biscuit (20/1), 9Deep Dreams (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485623
🎯 Longshots: 485632179
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #13 over #5 ($1 straight; box #13-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #13, #5, #14 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #4, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #8, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #4 over #8 ($1 straight; box #4-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #4, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
39Candle'S Legacy10/1—10.6%+15.8%0.40%$0.40
314Dreaming Collect12/1—8.5%+9.3%0.19%$0.19
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.6%$0.59
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1True Essence (5/2)
Place:4Charge Me (3/1)
Show:7Family Crest (7/2)
Other contenders:6Toll Booth Willy (4/1), 2Apotheon (5/1)
Rest of field:3Beach Vibe (12/1), 5Electric Indian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147623
🎯 Longshots: 1476235
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $41,000
Win:2Infinite Speed (2/1)
Place:4Ta Ta Today Junior (6/1)
Show:3Barca Billy (6/1)
Other contenders:5Four Star General (7/2), 6Mi Sargento (3/1)
Rest of field:1Powerful Justice (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256431
🎯 Longshots: 245631
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $25,160
Win:13Ribadeo (5/1)
Place:8British Empress (6/1)
Show:5Cloudy Lass (4/1)
Other contenders:14Dreaming Collect (12/1), 9Candle's Legacy (10/1), 1Lyric Street (10/1), 2Oak Alley (12/1)
Rest of field:11Tidal Tactics (6/1), 12Princess Buttercup (8/1), 6Dreaming Why (10/1), 7Miss Teca (12/1), 3Union Empress (8/1), 10Vee's Reason (20/1), 4Jack's Yellow Rose (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1358111412
🎯 Longshots: 9131814521237611104
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #8, #5, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:7Eye Shadow (4/1)
Place:6Fat Chance (5/2)
Show:2Indiana Smoke Show (4/1)
Other contenders:3Barb's Vortex (8/1), 4Sakra's Quest (4/1)
Rest of field:5Molly's Potion (5/1), 1Color Me Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672453
🎯 Longshots: 6437215
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:2Brazilian Conexao (12/1)
Place:1Which Side R U On (3/1)
Show:5Positive Change (15/1)
Other contenders:4Forever Greedy (6/1), 7Troubleonthegreen (7/2), 6Zach (5/1), 9Adios Ashwood (12/1)
Rest of field:8Governor Ron (4/1), 10Mystik Justice (15/1), 3Thousands Of Hopes (15/1), 11Nineteenfourtyfive (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 176842
🎯 Longshots: 1592741036811
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:6Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:3Red Clay Runaway (6/1)
Show:8Tricked You (5/1)
Other contenders:4Bignetti (9/2), 2Blues Rocker (8/1), 5Cyber Runner (8/1)
Rest of field:9Comeonwithit (8/1), 7Suspenders (20/1), 1Mr Thunderous (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 648325
🎯 Longshots: 629453871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:6Differently (8/1)
Place:2Choate (5/1)
Show:1Never Really Know (4/1)
Other contenders:4Risk And Regret (9/2), 5Sassy Allie (25/1), 9White Lilacs (6/1), 7Pink Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:3She's Fascinating (15/1), 8Purring (8/1), 10My Wish (10/1), 12Roaring Vixen (10/1), 11Rafaella (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142698
🎯 Longshots: 614731289102511
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Hot Middles (3/1)
Place:1Temple Paynter (10/1)
Show:8Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Other contenders:5The Kid Pataky (8/1), 9Imagine The Moon (6/1), 2Bits Of Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:6Rich In Faith (10/1), 4Littleransomsfire (6/1), 7City Prayers (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 381954
🎯 Longshots: 315286794
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:4Tiva (9/5)
Place:5Pious (3/1)
Show:8Well Hey There (5/2)
Other contenders:6Whistlewhileuwork (8/1), 3Onelilconquest (20/1), 2Indy Tryst (20/1)
Rest of field:9Deep Dreams (20/1), 1Pear (20/1), 7Apple Biscuit (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485632
🎯 Longshots: 485632179
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1True Essence (5/2)
Place:2Apotheon (5/1)
Show:7Family Crest (7/2)
Other contenders:3Beach Vibe (12/1), 4Charge Me (3/1)
Rest of field:6Toll Booth Willy (4/1), 5Electric Indian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174263
🎯 Longshots: 1476235
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $41,000
Win:2Infinite Speed (2/1)
Place:4Ta Ta Today Junior (6/1)
Show:5Four Star General (7/2)
Other contenders:6Mi Sargento (3/1), 3Barca Billy (6/1)
Rest of field:1Powerful Justice (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 265431
🎯 Longshots: 245631
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $25,160
Win:8British Empress (6/1)
Place:13Ribadeo (5/1)
Show:5Cloudy Lass (4/1)
Other contenders:14Dreaming Collect (12/1), 2Oak Alley (12/1), 3Union Empress (8/1), 1Lyric Street (10/1)
Rest of field:9Candle's Legacy (10/1), 12Princess Buttercup (8/1), 11Tidal Tactics (6/1), 7Miss Teca (12/1), 6Dreaming Why (10/1), 10Vee's Reason (20/1), 4Jack's Yellow Rose (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851311312
🎯 Longshots: 9131814521237611104
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #13, #5, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Sakra's Quest (4/1)
Place:6Fat Chance (5/2)
Show:2Indiana Smoke Show (4/1)
Other contenders:7Eye Shadow (4/1), 5Molly's Potion (5/1)
Rest of field:3Barb's Vortex (8/1), 1Color Me Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642753
🎯 Longshots: 6437215
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Which Side R U On (3/1)
Place:7Troubleonthegreen (7/2)
Show:4Forever Greedy (6/1)
Other contenders:2Brazilian Conexao (12/1), 9Adios Ashwood (12/1), 6Zach (5/1), 5Positive Change (15/1)
Rest of field:8Governor Ron (4/1), 3Thousands Of Hopes (15/1), 10Mystik Justice (15/1), 11Nineteenfourtyfive (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174682
🎯 Longshots: 1592741036811
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:6Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:4Bignetti (9/2)
Show:3Red Clay Runaway (6/1)
Other contenders:8Tricked You (5/1), 2Blues Rocker (8/1), 9Comeonwithit (8/1)
Rest of field:5Cyber Runner (8/1), 7Suspenders (20/1), 1Mr Thunderous (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 648329
🎯 Longshots: 629453871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $23,800
Win:1Never Really Know (4/1)
Place:2Choate (5/1)
Show:4Risk And Regret (9/2)
Other contenders:9White Lilacs (6/1), 6Differently (8/1), 8Purring (8/1), 7Pink Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:3She's Fascinating (15/1), 10My Wish (10/1), 12Roaring Vixen (10/1), 5Sassy Allie (25/1), 11Rafaella (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124968
🎯 Longshots: 614731289102511
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Hot Middles (3/1)
Place:8Werk It Wendy (7/2)
Show:5The Kid Pataky (8/1)
Other contenders:1Temple Paynter (10/1), 9Imagine The Moon (6/1), 2Bits Of Candy (8/1)
Rest of field:6Rich In Faith (10/1), 4Littleransomsfire (6/1), 7City Prayers (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 389542
🎯 Longshots: 315286794
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:8Well Hey There (5/2)
Place:4Tiva (9/5)
Show:5Pious (3/1)
Other contenders:6Whistlewhileuwork (8/1), 2Indy Tryst (20/1), 3Onelilconquest (20/1)
Rest of field:7Apple Biscuit (20/1), 1Pear (20/1), 9Deep Dreams (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485623
🎯 Longshots: 485632179
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #2,#5,#4 (72%) / R3: #13,#8,#5 (50%) / R4: #4,#6,#2 (73%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #4,#6,#2 (73%) / R5: #1,#7,#4 (58%) / R6: #6,#8 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#7,#4 (58%) / R6: #6,#8 (60%) / R7: #1,#4,#2 (54%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #6,#8 (60%) / R7: #1,#4,#2 (54%) / R8: #3,#8,#9 (56%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #4,#6,#2 (73%) / R5: #1,#7,#4 (58%) / R6: #6,#8 (60%) / R7: #1,#4,#2 (54%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #6,#8 (60%) / R7: #1,#4,#2 (54%) / R8: #3,#8,#9 (56%) / R9: #8,#4,#5 (82%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADIOS ASHWOODAP MISS LUNAS TIDEAPOTHEONAPPLE BISCUITBANDITA
BARCA BILLYBEACH VIBEBIGNETTIBITS OF CANDYBLUES ROCKER
BRAZILIAN CONEXAOBRITISH EMPRESSCAELUSCANDLE'S LEGACYCHARGE ME
CITY PRAYERSCLOUDY LASSCOLOR ME FASTCOMEONWITHITCYBER RUNNER
DIFFERENTLYDREAMING COLLECTDREAMING WHYELECTRIC INDIANEYE SHADOW
FAT CHANCEFOREVER GREEDYFOUR STAR GENERALGOLD HEARTED POLICYGOVERNOR RON
IMAGINE THE MOONINDIANA SMOKE SHOWINDY TRYSTINFINITE SPEEDJACK'S YELLOW ROSE
LYRIC STREETMG PILOT BOYMI SARGENTOMISS TECAMOLLY'S POTION
MY WISHMYSTIK JUSTICENEVER REALLY KNOWNINETEENFOURTYFIVEOAK ALLEY
PEARPINK MOONPIOUSPOSITIVE CHANGEPOWERFUL JUSTICE
PURRINGRAFAELLARED CLAY RUNAWAYRIBADEORICH IN FAITH
ROARING VIXENROCK HARD LOVESAKRA'S QUESTSASSY ALLIESHE'S FASCINATING
SUSPENDERSTA TA TODAY JUNIORTEMPLE PAYNTERTHE KID PATAKYTHOUSANDS OF HOPES
TIVATOLL BOOTH WILLYTRICKED YOUTROUBLEONTHEGREENTRUE ESSENCE
UNION EMPRESSVEE'S REASONVICTORY ON ICEWELL HEY THEREWERK IT WENDY
WHISTLEWHILEUWORKWHITE LILACSWR HOTT SHOTTZACH

 


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