Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Remington Park, November 11, 2026


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 343 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-08-21 to 2026-11-07.

0%11%23%34%45%Our top pick: 36.2% from 343 racesOur top pick36.2%Morning-line favourite: 33.2% from 343 racesMorning-line favourite33.2%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick36.2%343
Morning-line favourite33.2%343
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Added Touch (5/2)
Place:1Ante Up Tony (7/2)
Show:7Olympic Star (5/1)
Other contenders:10Edgewater (8/1), 9Go Thunder Go (6/1), 6Lasko Lady (12/1)
Rest of field:4Say As I Say (12/1), 3Gospel Lois (15/1), 8Mrs Shirley (12/1), 5Gospel Regina (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2171096
🎯 Longshots: 11027643985
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Saline River (5/2)
Place:4Casa Cielo (9/2)
Show:2Hedge The Risk (4/1)
Other contenders:9Bold Discovery (5/1), 6Imua Kai (12/1), 8Don'task Don'ttell (6/1)
Rest of field:7Interstellar (8/1), 5Manor Born (15/1), 1Blessed Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342986
🎯 Longshots: 364275981
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Kelce (2/1)
Place:1Machado (3/1)
Show:6Luna Latte (4/1)
Other contenders:3Cocked Pistol (5/1), 4Arco Thunder (8/1)
Rest of field:7Clay's Hatchett (6/1), 2Monadnock (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516347
🎯 Longshots: 5143672
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Code Nate (2/1)
Place:7Mo Town Gold (3/1)
Show:6Caymen's Soldier (9/2)
Other contenders:2Shelley's Secret (6/1), 1Get Dreamy (12/1), 8Endless Skyway (12/1)
Rest of field:4Sutter Bug (10/1), 3Rugged Sawyer Lee (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576214
🎯 Longshots: 58146732
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Yellow Brick (8/1)
Place:6Bender (4/1)
Show:7Lebombo (7/2)
Other contenders:10Jacked Up (9/2), 4Tres Soles (10/1), 9Jolly Samurai (6/1), 2No Trouble (15/1)
Rest of field:5Tyler's Turn (15/1), 11Justice Department (12/1), 8Succession (20/1), 3Prince Rama (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6711094
🎯 Longshots: 1462510739118
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Strong Potential (3/1)
Place:11Militant (5/1)
Show:3Atreidesreflection (4/1)
Other contenders:10Remittance (8/1), 4Scouser (10/1), 6Eleven Bravo (15/1), 9Prince J J (10/1)
Rest of field:2Life At Sea (20/1), 5Tiger Man Mckool (6/1), 1Old Boys Club (20/1), 7Tuff Biz (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 83111045
🎯 Longshots: 8410961123175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #11, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $39,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Mirage (7/2)
Place:2Mellencamp (4/1)
Show:7Drill Baby (3/1)
Other contenders:5Inwood Drive (5/2), 4Worth The Ransom (5/1)
Rest of field:1Special Agenda (15/1), 6Double Standards (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372541
🎯 Longshots: 3721654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Austin Cruise (4/1)
Place:10Waco (3/1)
Show:11Vino Texas Jess (6/1)
Other contenders:3Coach Kev (5/1), 7Empire Ranch (10/1), 5Straightaway (10/1), 6Wish Man (15/1)
Rest of field:9Consecrated (10/1), 8Props (12/1), 2Backdoor Royalty (20/1), 1Pollito Tito (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10411375
🎯 Longshots: 4107611923851
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 268 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-09-10 to 2026-11-07.

0%11%22%34%45%Our top pick: 35.8% from 268 racesOur top pick35.8%Morning-line favourite: 33.2% from 268 racesMorning-line favourite33.2%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.8%268
Morning-line favourite33.2%268
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:7Olympic Star (5/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +74%
Place:1Ante Up Tony (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:2Added Touch (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:10Edgewater (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 6Lasko Lady (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%, 9Go Thunder Go (6/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -77%
Rest of field:4Say As I Say (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59%, 3Gospel Lois (15/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -70%, 8Mrs Shirley (12/1) 2% · fair 127-2 underlay -81%, 5Gospel Regina (15/1) 1% · fair 103-1 underlay -85%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Olympic Star — 25.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Olympic Star25.8% ◀Ante Up Tony — 24.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Ante Up Tony24.3%Added Touch — 23.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Added Touch23.1%Edgewater — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Edgewater11.6%Lasko Lady — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Lasko Lady3.7%Go Thunder Go — 3.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Go Thunder Go3.7%Say As I Say — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Say As I Say3.3%Gospel Lois — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Gospel Lois2.0%Mrs Shirley — 1.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Mrs Shirley1.6%Gospel Regina — 1.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Gospel Regina1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Olympic Star25.8%5/1
Ante Up Tony24.3%3.5/1
Added Touch23.1%2.5/1
Edgewater11.6%8/1
Lasko Lady3.7%12/1
Go Thunder Go3.7%6/1
Say As I Say3.3%12/1
Gospel Lois2.0%15/1
Mrs Shirley1.6%12/1
Gospel Regina1.0%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOlympic Star: model 25.8% vs market 13.0% (+12.9 points)Olympic Star+12.9Ante Up Tony: model 24.3% vs market 17.3% (+7.0 points)Ante Up Tony+7.0Added Touch: model 23.1% vs market 22.2% (+0.8 points)Added Touch+0.8Edgewater: model 11.6% vs market 8.7% (+3.0 points)Edgewater+3.0Lasko Lady: model 3.7% vs market 6.0% (-2.3 points)Lasko Lady-2.3Go Thunder Go: model 3.7% vs market 11.1% (-7.4 points)Go Thunder Go-7.4Say As I Say: model 3.3% vs market 6.0% (-2.7 points)Say As I Say-2.7Gospel Lois: model 2.0% vs market 4.9% (-2.9 points)Gospel Lois-2.9Mrs Shirley: model 1.6% vs market 6.0% (-4.4 points)Mrs Shirley-4.4Gospel Regina: model 1.0% vs market 4.9% (-3.9 points)Gospel Regina-3.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Olympic Star25.8%13.0%+12.9
Ante Up Tony24.3%17.3%+7.0
Added Touch23.1%22.2%+0.8
Edgewater11.6%8.7%+3.0
Lasko Lady3.7%6.0%-2.3
Go Thunder Go3.7%11.1%-7.4
Say As I Say3.3%6.0%-2.7
Gospel Lois2.0%4.9%-2.9
Mrs Shirley1.6%6.0%-4.4
Gospel Regina1.0%4.9%-3.9
🌧️ Off-track: 2171096
🎯 Longshots: 11027643985
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:3Saline River (5/2) 39% · fair 3-2 overlay +57%
Place:4Casa Cielo (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:9Bold Discovery (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Hedge The Risk (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%, 6Imua Kai (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -39%, 8Don'task Don'ttell (6/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -72%
Rest of field:5Manor Born (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 7Interstellar (8/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -75%, 1Blessed Vision (20/1) 1% · fair 67-1 underlay -70%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Saline River — 38.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Saline River38.5% ◀Casa Cielo — 15.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Casa Cielo15.9%Bold Discovery — 14.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Bold Discovery14.5%Hedge The Risk — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Hedge The Risk14.0%Imua Kai — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Imua Kai4.8%Don'Task Don'Ttell — 4.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Don'Task Don'Ttell4.5%Manor Born — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Manor Born3.2%Interstellar — 3.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Interstellar3.0%Blessed Vision — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Blessed Vision1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Saline River38.5%2.5/1
Casa Cielo15.9%4.5/1
Bold Discovery14.5%5/1
Hedge The Risk14.0%4/1
Imua Kai4.8%12/1
Don'Task Don'Ttell4.5%6/1
Manor Born3.2%15/1
Interstellar3.0%8/1
Blessed Vision1.5%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSaline River: model 38.5% vs market 22.4% (+16.1 points)Saline River+16.1Casa Cielo: model 15.9% vs market 14.3% (+1.7 points)Casa Cielo+1.7Bold Discovery: model 14.5% vs market 13.1% (+1.4 points)Bold Discovery+1.4Hedge The Risk: model 14.0% vs market 15.7% (-1.6 points)Hedge The Risk-1.6Imua Kai: model 4.8% vs market 6.0% (-1.2 points)Imua Kai-1.2Don'Task Don'Ttell: model 4.5% vs market 11.2% (-6.8 points)Don'Task Don'Ttell-6.8Manor Born: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Manor Born-1.7Interstellar: model 3.0% vs market 8.7% (-5.7 points)Interstellar-5.7Blessed Vision: model 1.5% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Blessed Vision-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Saline River38.5%22.4%+16.1
Casa Cielo15.9%14.3%+1.7
Bold Discovery14.5%13.1%+1.4
Hedge The Risk14.0%15.7%-1.6
Imua Kai4.8%6.0%-1.2
Don'Task Don'Ttell4.5%11.2%-6.8
Manor Born3.2%4.9%-1.7
Interstellar3.0%8.7%-5.7
Blessed Vision1.5%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 324987
🎯 Longshots: 364275981
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Kelce (2/1) 53% · fair 4-5 overlay +127%
Place:1Machado (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:4Arco Thunder (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:6Luna Latte (4/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -68%, 3Cocked Pistol (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -62%
Rest of field:7Clay's Hatchett (6/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -81%, 2Monadnock (12/1) 1% · fair 149-2 underlay -84%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Kelce — 53.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Kelce53.1% ◀Machado — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Machado20.2%Arco Thunder — 7.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Arco Thunder7.9%Luna Latte — 7.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Luna Latte7.3%Cocked Pistol — 7.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Cocked Pistol7.0%Clay'S Hatchett — 3.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Clay'S Hatchett3.1%Monadnock — 1.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Monadnock1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Kelce53.1%2/1
Machado20.2%3/1
Arco Thunder7.9%8/1
Luna Latte7.3%4/1
Cocked Pistol7.0%5/1
Clay'S Hatchett3.1%6/1
Monadnock1.3%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKelce: model 53.1% vs market 26.0% (+27.1 points)Kelce+27.1Machado: model 20.2% vs market 19.5% (+0.7 points)Machado+0.7Arco Thunder: model 7.9% vs market 8.7% (-0.8 points)Arco Thunder-0.8Luna Latte: model 7.3% vs market 15.6% (-8.3 points)Luna Latte-8.3Cocked Pistol: model 7.0% vs market 13.0% (-6.0 points)Cocked Pistol-6.0Clay'S Hatchett: model 3.1% vs market 11.2% (-8.0 points)Clay'S Hatchett-8.0Monadnock: model 1.3% vs market 6.0% (-4.7 points)Monadnock-4.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Kelce53.1%26.0%+27.1
Machado20.2%19.5%+0.7
Arco Thunder7.9%8.7%-0.8
Luna Latte7.3%15.6%-8.3
Cocked Pistol7.0%13.0%-6.0
Clay'S Hatchett3.1%11.2%-8.0
Monadnock1.3%6.0%-4.7
🌧️ Off-track: 516374
🎯 Longshots: 5143672
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Code Nate (2/1) 44% · fair 3-2 overlay +59%
Place:7Mo Town Gold (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -33%
Show:2Shelley's Secret (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%
Other contenders:1Get Dreamy (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 8Endless Skyway (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 4Sutter Bug (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:6Caymen's Soldier (9/2) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -71%, 3Rugged Sawyer Lee (8/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -78%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Code Nate — 44.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Code Nate44.4% ◀Mo Town Gold — 18.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Mo Town Gold18.2%Shelley'S Secret — 8.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Shelley'S Secret8.3%Get Dreamy — 7.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Get Dreamy7.6%Endless Skyway — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Endless Skyway6.6%Sutter Bug — 6.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Sutter Bug6.2%Caymen'S Soldier — 6.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Caymen'S Soldier6.1%Rugged Sawyer Lee — 2.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Rugged Sawyer Lee2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Code Nate44.4%2/1
Mo Town Gold18.2%3/1
Shelley'S Secret8.3%6/1
Get Dreamy7.6%12/1
Endless Skyway6.6%12/1
Sutter Bug6.2%10/1
Caymen'S Soldier6.1%4.5/1
Rugged Sawyer Lee2.6%8/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCode Nate: model 44.4% vs market 26.4% (+18.0 points)Code Nate+18.0Mo Town Gold: model 18.2% vs market 19.8% (-1.5 points)Mo Town Gold-1.5Shelley'S Secret: model 8.3% vs market 11.3% (-3.0 points)Shelley'S Secret-3.0Get Dreamy: model 7.6% vs market 6.1% (+1.5 points)Get Dreamy+1.5Endless Skyway: model 6.6% vs market 6.1% (+0.6 points)Endless Skyway+0.6Sutter Bug: model 6.2% vs market 7.2% (-1.0 points)Sutter Bug-1.0Caymen'S Soldier: model 6.1% vs market 14.4% (-8.2 points)Caymen'S Soldier-8.2Rugged Sawyer Lee: model 2.6% vs market 8.8% (-6.2 points)Rugged Sawyer Lee-6.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Code Nate44.4%26.4%+18.0
Mo Town Gold18.2%19.8%-1.5
Shelley'S Secret8.3%11.3%-3.0
Get Dreamy7.6%6.1%+1.5
Endless Skyway6.6%6.1%+0.6
Sutter Bug6.2%7.2%-1.0
Caymen'S Soldier6.1%14.4%-8.2
Rugged Sawyer Lee2.6%8.8%-6.2
🌧️ Off-track: 576234
🎯 Longshots: 58146732
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6Bender (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:10Jacked Up (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -31%
Show:1Yellow Brick (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:7Lebombo (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -51%, 9Jolly Samurai (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 4Tres Soles (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 2No Trouble (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1
Rest of field:5Tyler's Turn (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -25%, 11Justice Department (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -47%, 3Prince Rama (15/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -57%, 8Succession (20/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -43%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bender — 22.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Bender22.9% ◀Jacked Up — 13.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Jacked Up13.3%Yellow Brick — 13.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Yellow Brick13.1%Lebombo — 12.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lebombo12.4%Jolly Samurai — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Jolly Samurai10.0%Tres Soles — 8.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Tres Soles8.2%No Trouble — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1No Trouble5.5%Tyler'S Turn — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Tyler'S Turn4.8%Justice Department — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Justice Department4.2%Prince Rama — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Prince Rama2.8%Succession — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Succession2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bender22.9%4/1
Jacked Up13.3%4.5/1
Yellow Brick13.1%8/1
Lebombo12.4%3.5/1
Jolly Samurai10.0%6/1
Tres Soles8.2%10/1
No Trouble5.5%15/1
Tyler'S Turn4.8%15/1
Justice Department4.2%12/1
Prince Rama2.8%15/1
Succession2.8%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBender: model 22.9% vs market 15.9% (+7.0 points)Bender+7.0Jacked Up: model 13.3% vs market 14.4% (-1.1 points)Jacked Up-1.1Yellow Brick: model 13.1% vs market 8.8% (+4.3 points)Yellow Brick+4.3Lebombo: model 12.4% vs market 17.6% (-5.3 points)Lebombo-5.3Jolly Samurai: model 10.0% vs market 11.3% (-1.3 points)Jolly Samurai-1.3Tres Soles: model 8.2% vs market 7.2% (+1.0 points)Tres Soles+1.0No Trouble: model 5.5% vs market 5.0% (+0.6 points)No Trouble+0.6Tyler'S Turn: model 4.8% vs market 5.0% (-0.2 points)Tyler'S Turn-0.2Justice Department: model 4.2% vs market 6.1% (-1.9 points)Justice Department-1.9Prince Rama: model 2.8% vs market 5.0% (-2.2 points)Prince Rama-2.2Succession: model 2.8% vs market 3.8% (-1.0 points)Succession-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bender22.9%15.9%+7.0
Jacked Up13.3%14.4%-1.1
Yellow Brick13.1%8.8%+4.3
Lebombo12.4%17.6%-5.3
Jolly Samurai10.0%11.3%-1.3
Tres Soles8.2%7.2%+1.0
No Trouble5.5%5.0%+0.6
Tyler'S Turn4.8%5.0%-0.2
Justice Department4.2%6.1%-1.9
Prince Rama2.8%5.0%-2.2
Succession2.8%3.8%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 6710194
🎯 Longshots: 1462510739118
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:8Strong Potential (3/1) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +54%
Place:11Militant (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:3Atreidesreflection (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:10Remittance (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -46%, 6Eleven Bravo (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 4Scouser (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43%, 9Prince J J (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -57%
Rest of field:2Life At Sea (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2, 7Tuff Biz (12/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -61%, 5Tiger Man Mckool (6/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -83%, 1Old Boys Club (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Strong Potential — 33.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Strong Potential33.9% ◀Militant — 18.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Militant18.3%Atreidesreflection — 13.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Atreidesreflection13.6%Remittance — 6.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Remittance6.3%Eleven Bravo — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Eleven Bravo5.5%Scouser — 5.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Scouser5.4%Prince J J — 4.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Prince J J4.2%Life At Sea — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Life At Sea4.1%Tuff Biz — 3.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Tuff Biz3.1%Tiger Man Mckool — 2.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Tiger Man Mckool2.8%Old Boys Club — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Old Boys Club2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Strong Potential33.9%3/1
Militant18.3%5/1
Atreidesreflection13.6%4/1
Remittance6.3%8/1
Eleven Bravo5.5%15/1
Scouser5.4%10/1
Prince J J4.2%10/1
Life At Sea4.1%20/1
Tuff Biz3.1%12/1
Tiger Man Mckool2.8%6/1
Old Boys Club2.7%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStrong Potential: model 33.9% vs market 19.4% (+14.5 points)Strong Potential+14.5Militant: model 18.3% vs market 12.9% (+5.4 points)Militant+5.4Atreidesreflection: model 13.6% vs market 15.5% (-1.9 points)Atreidesreflection-1.9Remittance: model 6.3% vs market 8.6% (-2.3 points)Remittance-2.3Eleven Bravo: model 5.5% vs market 4.9% (+0.6 points)Eleven Bravo+0.6Scouser: model 5.4% vs market 7.1% (-1.7 points)Scouser-1.7Prince J J: model 4.2% vs market 7.1% (-2.9 points)Prince J J-2.9Life At Sea: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.4 points)Life At Sea+0.4Tuff Biz: model 3.1% vs market 6.0% (-2.8 points)Tuff Biz-2.8Tiger Man Mckool: model 2.8% vs market 11.1% (-8.3 points)Tiger Man Mckool-8.3Old Boys Club: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Old Boys Club-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Strong Potential33.9%19.4%+14.5
Militant18.3%12.9%+5.4
Atreidesreflection13.6%15.5%-1.9
Remittance6.3%8.6%-2.3
Eleven Bravo5.5%4.9%+0.6
Scouser5.4%7.1%-1.7
Prince J J4.2%7.1%-2.9
Life At Sea4.1%3.7%+0.4
Tuff Biz3.1%6.0%-2.8
Tiger Man Mckool2.8%11.1%-8.3
Old Boys Club2.7%3.7%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 81135104
🎯 Longshots: 8410961123175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #11, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $39,000
Win:3Mirage (7/2) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +62%
Place:7Drill Baby (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:2Mellencamp (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5Inwood Drive (5/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -63%, 4Worth The Ransom (5/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -72%
Rest of field:1Special Agenda (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 6Double Standards (15/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -42%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mirage — 31.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mirage31.7% ◀Drill Baby — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Drill Baby21.7%Mellencamp — 19.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Mellencamp19.7%Inwood Drive — 12.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Inwood Drive12.8%Worth The Ransom — 5.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Worth The Ransom5.3%Special Agenda — 5.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Special Agenda5.2%Double Standards — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Double Standards3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mirage31.7%3.5/1
Drill Baby21.7%3/1
Mellencamp19.7%4/1
Inwood Drive12.8%2.5/1
Worth The Ransom5.3%5/1
Special Agenda5.2%15/1
Double Standards3.7%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMirage: model 31.7% vs market 17.8% (+13.9 points)Mirage+13.9Drill Baby: model 21.7% vs market 20.0% (+1.7 points)Drill Baby+1.7Mellencamp: model 19.7% vs market 16.0% (+3.6 points)Mellencamp+3.6Inwood Drive: model 12.8% vs market 22.9% (-10.1 points)Inwood Drive-10.1Worth The Ransom: model 5.3% vs market 13.3% (-8.1 points)Worth The Ransom-8.1Special Agenda: model 5.2% vs market 5.0% (+0.2 points)Special Agenda+0.2Double Standards: model 3.7% vs market 5.0% (-1.3 points)Double Standards-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mirage31.7%17.8%+13.9
Drill Baby21.7%20.0%+1.7
Mellencamp19.7%16.0%+3.6
Inwood Drive12.8%22.9%-10.1
Worth The Ransom5.3%13.3%-8.1
Special Agenda5.2%5.0%+0.2
Double Standards3.7%5.0%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 372541
🎯 Longshots: 3721654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,500
Win:4Austin Cruise (4/1) 24% · fair 7-2
Place:10Waco (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -35%
Show:11Vino Texas Jess (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +30%
Other contenders:3Coach Kev (5/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -48%, 7Empire Ranch (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 9Consecrated (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -34%, 6Wish Man (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2
Rest of field:5Straightaway (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -57%, 8Props (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 2Backdoor Royalty (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 1Pollito Tito (20/1) 2% · fair 63-1 underlay -68%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Austin Cruise — 23.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Austin Cruise23.5% ◀Waco — 17.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Waco17.8%Vino Texas Jess — 17.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Vino Texas Jess17.8%Coach Kev — 9.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Coach Kev9.4%Empire Ranch — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Empire Ranch6.8%Consecrated — 6.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Consecrated6.2%Wish Man — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Wish Man5.1%Straightaway — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Straightaway4.1%Props — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Props3.9%Backdoor Royalty — 3.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Backdoor Royalty3.7%Pollito Tito — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Pollito Tito1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Austin Cruise23.5%4/1
Waco17.8%3/1
Vino Texas Jess17.8%6/1
Coach Kev9.4%5/1
Empire Ranch6.8%10/1
Consecrated6.2%10/1
Wish Man5.1%15/1
Straightaway4.1%10/1
Props3.9%12/1
Backdoor Royalty3.7%20/1
Pollito Tito1.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAustin Cruise: model 23.5% vs market 15.8% (+7.7 points)Austin Cruise+7.7Waco: model 17.8% vs market 19.7% (-1.9 points)Waco-1.9Vino Texas Jess: model 17.8% vs market 11.3% (+6.5 points)Vino Texas Jess+6.5Coach Kev: model 9.4% vs market 13.2% (-3.8 points)Coach Kev-3.8Empire Ranch: model 6.8% vs market 7.2% (-0.3 points)Empire Ranch-0.3Consecrated: model 6.2% vs market 7.2% (-1.0 points)Consecrated-1.0Wish Man: model 5.1% vs market 4.9% (+0.2 points)Wish Man+0.2Straightaway: model 4.1% vs market 7.2% (-3.0 points)Straightaway-3.0Props: model 3.9% vs market 6.1% (-2.2 points)Props-2.2Backdoor Royalty: model 3.7% vs market 3.8% (-0.0 points)Backdoor Royalty-0.0Pollito Tito: model 1.6% vs market 3.8% (-2.2 points)Pollito Tito-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Austin Cruise23.5%15.8%+7.7
Waco17.8%19.7%-1.9
Vino Texas Jess17.8%11.3%+6.5
Coach Kev9.4%13.2%-3.8
Empire Ranch6.8%7.2%-0.3
Consecrated6.2%7.2%-1.0
Wish Man5.1%4.9%+0.2
Straightaway4.1%7.2%-3.0
Props3.9%6.1%-2.2
Backdoor Royalty3.7%3.8%-0.0
Pollito Tito1.6%3.8%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 41011379
🎯 Longshots: 4107611923851
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Remington Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 140 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-08-21 to 2026-11-07.

0%12%23%35%46%Our top pick: 37.1% from 140 racesOur top pick37.1%Expert consensus pick: 35.0% from 140 racesExpert consensus pick35.0%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick37.1%140
Expert consensus pick35.0%140
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:3Gospel Lois (15/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Added Touch (5/2)
Show:7Olympic Star (5/1)
Other contenders:1Ante Up Tony (7/2), 10Edgewater (8/1), 9Go Thunder Go (6/1)
Rest of field:5Gospel Regina (15/1), 6Lasko Lady (12/1), 4Say As I Say (12/1), 8Mrs Shirley (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2171039
🎯 Longshots: 11027643985
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:3Saline River (5/2)
Place:4Casa Cielo (9/2)
Show:9Bold Discovery (5/1)
Other contenders:2Hedge The Risk (4/1), 7Interstellar (8/1), 8Don'task Don'ttell (6/1)
Rest of field:6Imua Kai (12/1), 5Manor Born (15/1), 1Blessed Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 342987
🎯 Longshots: 364275981
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Kelce (2/1)
Place:1Machado (3/1)
Show:3Cocked Pistol (5/1)
Other contenders:6Luna Latte (4/1), 4Arco Thunder (8/1)
Rest of field:7Clay's Hatchett (6/1), 2Monadnock (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516374
🎯 Longshots: 5143672
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Code Nate (2/1)
Place:6Caymen's Soldier (9/2)
Show:7Mo Town Gold (3/1)
Other contenders:8Endless Skyway (12/1), 1Get Dreamy (12/1), 4Sutter Bug (10/1)
Rest of field:2Shelley's Secret (6/1), 3Rugged Sawyer Lee (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576248
🎯 Longshots: 58146732
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:1Yellow Brick (8/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:6Bender (4/1)
Show:7Lebombo (7/2)
Other contenders:10Jacked Up (9/2), 4Tres Soles (10/1), 9Jolly Samurai (6/1), 2No Trouble (15/1)
Rest of field:5Tyler's Turn (15/1), 3Prince Rama (15/1), 11Justice Department (12/1), 8Succession (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6710194
🎯 Longshots: 1462510739118
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:8Strong Potential (3/1)
Place:11Militant (5/1)
Show:3Atreidesreflection (4/1)
Other contenders:4Scouser (10/1), 6Eleven Bravo (15/1), 10Remittance (8/1), 9Prince J J (10/1)
Rest of field:2Life At Sea (20/1), 5Tiger Man Mckool (6/1), 1Old Boys Club (20/1), 7Tuff Biz (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 83111045
🎯 Longshots: 8410961123175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #11, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $39,000
Win:2Mellencamp (4/1)
Place:3Mirage (7/2)
Show:7Drill Baby (3/1)
Other contenders:5Inwood Drive (5/2), 4Worth The Ransom (5/1)
Rest of field:1Special Agenda (15/1), 6Double Standards (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 573241
🎯 Longshots: 3721654
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,500
Win:9Consecrated (10/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:10Waco (3/1)
Show:4Austin Cruise (4/1)
Other contenders:11Vino Texas Jess (6/1), 3Coach Kev (5/1), 6Wish Man (15/1), 7Empire Ranch (10/1)
Rest of field:8Props (12/1), 5Straightaway (10/1), 2Backdoor Royalty (20/1), 1Pollito Tito (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10411397
🎯 Longshots: 4107611923851
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #7, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #9, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #7, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #11 ($1 straight; box #8-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #11, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #4 over #10 ($1 straight; box #4-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #11, #10, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.34 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
54Tres Soles10/1—10.6%+14.2%0.36%$0.36
66Eleven Bravo15/1—7.2%+13.6%0.23%$0.23
62Life At Sea ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.4%+-24.8%0.00%$0.00
82Backdoor Royalty ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.3%+-26.4%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 4 plays:0.6%$0.58
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Added Touch (5/2)
Place:1Ante Up Tony (7/2)
Show:7Olympic Star (5/1)
Other contenders:5Gospel Regina (15/1), 10Edgewater (8/1), 9Go Thunder Go (6/1)
Rest of field:3Gospel Lois (15/1), 4Say As I Say (12/1), 6Lasko Lady (12/1), 8Mrs Shirley (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2179105
🎯 Longshots: 11027643985
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:3Saline River (5/2)
Place:9Bold Discovery (5/1)
Show:4Casa Cielo (9/2)
Other contenders:2Hedge The Risk (4/1), 7Interstellar (8/1), 6Imua Kai (12/1)
Rest of field:8Don'task Don'ttell (6/1), 5Manor Born (15/1), 1Blessed Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324987
🎯 Longshots: 364275981
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Kelce (2/1)
Place:1Machado (3/1)
Show:3Cocked Pistol (5/1)
Other contenders:6Luna Latte (4/1), 4Arco Thunder (8/1)
Rest of field:7Clay's Hatchett (6/1), 2Monadnock (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516374
🎯 Longshots: 5143672
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Code Nate (2/1)
Place:8Endless Skyway (12/1)
Show:6Caymen's Soldier (9/2)
Other contenders:7Mo Town Gold (3/1), 2Shelley's Secret (6/1), 1Get Dreamy (12/1)
Rest of field:4Sutter Bug (10/1), 3Rugged Sawyer Lee (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576284
🎯 Longshots: 58146732
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6Bender (4/1)
Place:4Tres Soles (10/1)
Show:1Yellow Brick (8/1)
Other contenders:10Jacked Up (9/2), 7Lebombo (7/2), 9Jolly Samurai (6/1), 3Prince Rama (15/1)
Rest of field:5Tyler's Turn (15/1), 2No Trouble (15/1), 8Succession (20/1), 11Justice Department (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6710194
🎯 Longshots: 1462510739118
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:8Strong Potential (3/1)
Place:11Militant (5/1)
Show:6Eleven Bravo (15/1)
Other contenders:3Atreidesreflection (4/1), 4Scouser (10/1), 5Tiger Man Mckool (6/1), 10Remittance (8/1)
Rest of field:9Prince J J (10/1), 2Life At Sea (20/1), 1Old Boys Club (20/1), 7Tuff Biz (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 83115104
🎯 Longshots: 8410961123175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #11, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $39,000
Win:2Mellencamp (4/1)
Place:7Drill Baby (3/1)
Show:3Mirage (7/2)
Other contenders:6Double Standards (15/1), 5Inwood Drive (5/2)
Rest of field:4Worth The Ransom (5/1), 1Special Agenda (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 275346
🎯 Longshots: 3721654
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,500
Win:4Austin Cruise (4/1)
Place:6Wish Man (15/1)
Show:10Waco (3/1)
Other contenders:2Backdoor Royalty (20/1), 3Coach Kev (5/1), 11Vino Texas Jess (6/1), 9Consecrated (10/1)
Rest of field:8Props (12/1), 5Straightaway (10/1), 7Empire Ranch (10/1), 1Pollito Tito (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10431169
🎯 Longshots: 4107611923851
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #10, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Added Touch (5/2)
Place:1Ante Up Tony (7/2)
Show:7Olympic Star (5/1)
Other contenders:10Edgewater (8/1), 9Go Thunder Go (6/1), 3Gospel Lois (15/1)
Rest of field:4Say As I Say (12/1), 6Lasko Lady (12/1), 8Mrs Shirley (12/1), 5Gospel Regina (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2171094
🎯 Longshots: 11027643985
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:3Saline River (5/2)
Place:9Bold Discovery (5/1)
Show:2Hedge The Risk (4/1)
Other contenders:4Casa Cielo (9/2), 6Imua Kai (12/1), 7Interstellar (8/1)
Rest of field:8Don'task Don'ttell (6/1), 5Manor Born (15/1), 1Blessed Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 329487
🎯 Longshots: 364275981
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:5Kelce (2/1)
Place:1Machado (3/1)
Show:4Arco Thunder (8/1)
Other contenders:3Cocked Pistol (5/1), 6Luna Latte (4/1)
Rest of field:7Clay's Hatchett (6/1), 2Monadnock (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 516347
🎯 Longshots: 5143672
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:5Code Nate (2/1)
Place:6Caymen's Soldier (9/2)
Show:7Mo Town Gold (3/1)
Other contenders:2Shelley's Secret (6/1), 8Endless Skyway (12/1), 1Get Dreamy (12/1)
Rest of field:4Sutter Bug (10/1), 3Rugged Sawyer Lee (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576281
🎯 Longshots: 58146732
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6Bender (4/1)
Place:1Yellow Brick (8/1)
Show:7Lebombo (7/2)
Other contenders:10Jacked Up (9/2), 4Tres Soles (10/1), 9Jolly Samurai (6/1), 2No Trouble (15/1)
Rest of field:5Tyler's Turn (15/1), 8Succession (20/1), 3Prince Rama (15/1), 11Justice Department (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6710194
🎯 Longshots: 1462510739118
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:8Strong Potential (3/1)
Place:11Militant (5/1)
Show:3Atreidesreflection (4/1)
Other contenders:6Eleven Bravo (15/1), 4Scouser (10/1), 10Remittance (8/1), 5Tiger Man Mckool (6/1)
Rest of field:2Life At Sea (20/1), 9Prince J J (10/1), 1Old Boys Club (20/1), 7Tuff Biz (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 83115104
🎯 Longshots: 8410961123175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #11, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $39,000
Win:3Mirage (7/2)
Place:2Mellencamp (4/1)
Show:7Drill Baby (3/1)
Other contenders:5Inwood Drive (5/2), 1Special Agenda (15/1)
Rest of field:4Worth The Ransom (5/1), 6Double Standards (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357241
🎯 Longshots: 3721654
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,500
Win:4Austin Cruise (4/1)
Place:11Vino Texas Jess (6/1)
Show:10Waco (3/1)
Other contenders:3Coach Kev (5/1), 6Wish Man (15/1), 9Consecrated (10/1), 5Straightaway (10/1)
Rest of field:2Backdoor Royalty (20/1), 7Empire Ranch (10/1), 8Props (12/1), 1Pollito Tito (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10411395
🎯 Longshots: 4107611923851
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #11, #10, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #7,#1,#2 (73%) / R2: #3,#4,#9 (69%) / R3: #5,#1 (73%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 37%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#4,#9 (69%) / R3: #5,#1 (73%) / R4: #5,#7 (63%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#1 (73%) / R4: #5,#7 (63%) / R5: #6,#10,#1 (49%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #5,#7 (63%) / R5: #6,#10,#1 (49%) / R6: #8,#11,#3 (66%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #7,#1,#2 (73%) / R2: #3,#4,#9 (69%) / R3: #5,#1 (73%) / R4: #5,#7 (63%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#4,#9 (69%) / R3: #5,#1 (73%) / R4: #5,#7 (63%) / R5: #6,#10,#1 (49%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADDED TOUCHANTE UP TONYARCO THUNDERATREIDESREFLECTIONAUSTIN CRUISE
BENDERBLESSED VISIONBOLD DISCOVERYCASA CIELOCAYMEN'S SOLDIER
COACH KEVCOCKED PISTOLCODE NATECONSECRATEDDON'TASK DON'TTELL
DRILL BABYEDGEWATERELEVEN BRAVOEMPIRE RANCHENDLESS SKYWAY
GO THUNDER GOGOSPEL LOISGOSPEL REGINAHEDGE THE RISKIMUA KAI
INWOOD DRIVEJACKED UPJOLLY SAMURAIJUSTICE DEPARTMENTKELCE
LEBOMBOLIFE AT SEALUNA LATTEMACHADOMANOR BORN
MILITANTMIRAGEMO TOWN GOLDMONADNOCKMRS SHIRLEY
OLD BOYS CLUBOLYMPIC STARPOLLITO TITOPRINCE J JPRINCE RAMA
REMITTANCERUGGED SAWYER LEESALINE RIVERSAY AS I SAYSCOUSER
SPECIAL AGENDASTRAIGHTAWAYSTRONG POTENTIALSUCCESSIONSUTTER BUG
TRES SOLESTUFF BIZTYLER'S TURNVINO TEXAS JESSWACO
WORTH THE RANSOMYELLOW BRICK

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback