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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Woodbine, November 12, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Glint Over Essa (2/1)
Place:2Flashy Affair (5/2)
Show:7Another Seattle (7/2)
Other contenders:5Stiletto Vixen (6/1), 4Marietta Babe (8/1)
Rest of field:1Flatter Addy (10/1), 3Forever Grateful (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627541
🎯 Longshots: 6247153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $27,800
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Misty Eyed (3/1)
Place:6Gretna Green (5/2)
Show:9Kavala (4/1)
Other contenders:2Sparkling Silver (6/1), 4Gizmo's B F F (10/1), 1Rosieposie (12/1)
Rest of field:8Crumlin Trouble (8/1), 5Dynamic Strike (20/1), 7Nightsaber (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 639248
🎯 Longshots: 364198527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:7Oh Oh Seven (7/5)
Place:2Glorious Revenge (7/2)
Show:4Peace Offering (9/2)
Other contenders:1Stormover The Nile (8/1), 3Black Thunder (6/1), 6Zip To Zap (12/1)
Rest of field:5Wine Money (15/1), 8Hard Reload (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724316
🎯 Longshots: 71452863
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,400
Win:1Souper Sunday (5/2)
Place:7Wild Red (7/2)
Show:3Unheard (3/1)
Other contenders:2Quiet Maddelena (6/1), 4Suigu Belle (12/1), 6Just Follow Me (12/1)
Rest of field:8Saucy Name (8/1), 9Fairhopecurly (20/1), 5Prima (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 173248
🎯 Longshots: 741685392
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:1Shimmering Frost (2/1)
Place:6Awesome Grace (5/2)
Show:4Matoaka (7/2)
Other contenders:7Swifty Kim (8/1), 5Champagne Sunday (10/1)
Rest of field:3Charming Jackie (6/1), 2Tweeternity (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164735
🎯 Longshots: 1652743
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Minimum Forty (8/5)
Place:1Sinclairity (5/2)
Show:5Give Me The Boots (4/1)
Other contenders:4Scary Speedy (9/2), 6Luz De La Luna (6/1)
Rest of field:3Cara Cara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215463
🎯 Longshots: 213546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Mor Joe's Spirit (5/2)
Place:3Lohan (7/2)
Show:2Navy Street (6/1)
Other contenders:5Named Firey (2/1), 1Flyonbye (9/2)
Rest of field:6Sir Falstaff (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 435126
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:2Miss Brit (3/1)
Place:9Lemon Sweets (4/1)
Show:3Spirit Of Indy (9/2)
Other contenders:11Ruby's Appeal (6/1), 10Super Red (10/1), 7That's A Fact (10/1), 1Tallawah (12/1)
Rest of field:5Danish Cookie (8/1), 8Bermuda Brew (20/1), 4Flightmare (20/1), 6C And J On Holiday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29311107
🎯 Longshots: 2109111375846
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:6Glint Over Essa (2/1) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +85%
Place:2Flashy Affair (5/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -60%
Show:5Stiletto Vixen (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:7Another Seattle (7/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -67%, 4Marietta Babe (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:3Forever Grateful (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 1Flatter Addy (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Glint Over Essa — 48.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Glint Over Essa48.1% ◀Flashy Affair — 13.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Flashy Affair13.7%Stiletto Vixen — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Stiletto Vixen11.8%Another Seattle — 8.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Another Seattle8.6%Marietta Babe — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Marietta Babe6.9%Forever Grateful — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Forever Grateful5.8%Flatter Addy — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Flatter Addy5.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Glint Over Essa48.1%2/1
Flashy Affair13.7%2.5/1
Stiletto Vixen11.8%6/1
Another Seattle8.6%3.5/1
Marietta Babe6.9%8/1
Forever Grateful5.8%10/1
Flatter Addy5.2%10/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGlint Over Essa: model 48.1% vs market 26.1% (+22.0 points)Glint Over Essa+22.0Flashy Affair: model 13.7% vs market 22.4% (-8.7 points)Flashy Affair-8.7Stiletto Vixen: model 11.8% vs market 11.2% (+0.6 points)Stiletto Vixen+0.6Another Seattle: model 8.6% vs market 17.4% (-8.8 points)Another Seattle-8.8Marietta Babe: model 6.9% vs market 8.7% (-1.8 points)Marietta Babe-1.8Forever Grateful: model 5.8% vs market 7.1% (-1.3 points)Forever Grateful-1.3Flatter Addy: model 5.2% vs market 7.1% (-1.9 points)Flatter Addy-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Glint Over Essa48.1%26.1%+22.0
Flashy Affair13.7%22.4%-8.7
Stiletto Vixen11.8%11.2%+0.6
Another Seattle8.6%17.4%-8.8
Marietta Babe6.9%8.7%-1.8
Forever Grateful5.8%7.1%-1.3
Flatter Addy5.2%7.1%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 627543
🎯 Longshots: 6247153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $27,800
Win:3Misty Eyed (3/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:6Gretna Green (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -36%
Show:9Kavala (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:2Sparkling Silver (6/1) 11% · fair 15-2, 4Gizmo's B F F (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26%, 1Rosieposie (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Rest of field:8Crumlin Trouble (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%, 5Dynamic Strike (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 7Nightsaber (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -47%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Misty Eyed — 27.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Misty Eyed27.6% ◀Gretna Green — 20.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gretna Green20.4%Kavala — 12.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Kavala12.9%Sparkling Silver — 11.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Sparkling Silver11.5%Gizmo'S B F F — 6.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Gizmo'S B F F6.9%Rosieposie — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Rosieposie6.6%Crumlin Trouble — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Crumlin Trouble6.0%Dynamic Strike — 4.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Dynamic Strike4.8%Nightsaber — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Nightsaber3.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Misty Eyed27.6%3/1
Gretna Green20.4%2.5/1
Kavala12.9%4/1
Sparkling Silver11.5%6/1
Gizmo'S B F F6.9%10/1
Rosieposie6.6%12/1
Crumlin Trouble6.0%8/1
Dynamic Strike4.8%20/1
Nightsaber3.4%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMisty Eyed: model 27.6% vs market 19.7% (+7.9 points)Misty Eyed+7.9Gretna Green: model 20.4% vs market 22.5% (-2.2 points)Gretna Green-2.2Kavala: model 12.9% vs market 15.8% (-2.9 points)Kavala-2.9Sparkling Silver: model 11.5% vs market 11.3% (+0.2 points)Sparkling Silver+0.2Gizmo'S B F F: model 6.9% vs market 7.2% (-0.3 points)Gizmo'S B F F-0.3Rosieposie: model 6.6% vs market 6.1% (+0.5 points)Rosieposie+0.5Crumlin Trouble: model 6.0% vs market 8.8% (-2.8 points)Crumlin Trouble-2.8Dynamic Strike: model 4.8% vs market 3.8% (+1.1 points)Dynamic Strike+1.1Nightsaber: model 3.4% vs market 4.9% (-1.5 points)Nightsaber-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Misty Eyed27.6%19.7%+7.9
Gretna Green20.4%22.5%-2.2
Kavala12.9%15.8%-2.9
Sparkling Silver11.5%11.3%+0.2
Gizmo'S B F F6.9%7.2%-0.3
Rosieposie6.6%6.1%+0.5
Crumlin Trouble6.0%8.8%-2.8
Dynamic Strike4.8%3.8%+1.1
Nightsaber3.4%4.9%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 369284
🎯 Longshots: 364198527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:7Oh Oh Seven (7/5) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:4Peace Offering (9/2) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +49%
Show:2Glorious Revenge (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%
Other contenders:1Stormover The Nile (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 3Black Thunder (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -47%, 6Zip To Zap (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -39%
Rest of field:5Wine Money (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -46%, 8Hard Reload (20/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -66%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Oh Oh Seven — 34.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Oh Oh Seven34.3% ◀Peace Offering — 24.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Peace Offering24.9%Glorious Revenge — 13.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Glorious Revenge13.6%Stormover The Nile — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Stormover The Nile9.1%Black Thunder — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Black Thunder8.2%Zip To Zap — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Zip To Zap4.8%Wine Money — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Wine Money3.5%Hard Reload — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Hard Reload1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Oh Oh Seven34.3%1.4/1
Peace Offering24.9%4.5/1
Glorious Revenge13.6%3.5/1
Stormover The Nile9.1%8/1
Black Thunder8.2%6/1
Zip To Zap4.8%12/1
Wine Money3.5%15/1
Hard Reload1.7%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOh Oh Seven: model 34.3% vs market 33.0% (+1.2 points)Oh Oh Seven+1.2Peace Offering: model 24.9% vs market 14.4% (+10.5 points)Peace Offering+10.5Glorious Revenge: model 13.6% vs market 17.6% (-4.0 points)Glorious Revenge-4.0Stormover The Nile: model 9.1% vs market 8.8% (+0.3 points)Stormover The Nile+0.3Black Thunder: model 8.2% vs market 11.3% (-3.2 points)Black Thunder-3.2Zip To Zap: model 4.8% vs market 6.1% (-1.3 points)Zip To Zap-1.3Wine Money: model 3.5% vs market 5.0% (-1.5 points)Wine Money-1.5Hard Reload: model 1.7% vs market 3.8% (-2.1 points)Hard Reload-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Oh Oh Seven34.3%33.0%+1.2
Peace Offering24.9%14.4%+10.5
Glorious Revenge13.6%17.6%-4.0
Stormover The Nile9.1%8.8%+0.3
Black Thunder8.2%11.3%-3.2
Zip To Zap4.8%6.1%-1.3
Wine Money3.5%5.0%-1.5
Hard Reload1.7%3.8%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 742316
🎯 Longshots: 71452863
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,400
Win:1Souper Sunday (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:7Wild Red (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -30%
Show:3Unheard (3/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -48%
Other contenders:2Quiet Maddelena (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 8Saucy Name (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 6Just Follow Me (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Rest of field:4Suigu Belle (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 9Fairhopecurly (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 5Prima (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Souper Sunday — 26.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Souper Sunday26.2% ◀Wild Red — 16.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Wild Red16.7%Unheard — 14.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Unheard14.7%Quiet Maddelena — 14.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Quiet Maddelena14.2%Saucy Name — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Saucy Name7.3%Just Follow Me — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Just Follow Me6.8%Suigu Belle — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Suigu Belle6.6%Fairhopecurly — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Fairhopecurly3.8%Prima — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Prima3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Souper Sunday26.2%2.5/1
Wild Red16.7%3.5/1
Unheard14.7%3/1
Quiet Maddelena14.2%6/1
Saucy Name7.3%8/1
Just Follow Me6.8%12/1
Suigu Belle6.6%12/1
Fairhopecurly3.8%20/1
Prima3.7%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSouper Sunday: model 26.2% vs market 22.4% (+3.8 points)Souper Sunday+3.8Wild Red: model 16.7% vs market 17.4% (-0.7 points)Wild Red-0.7Unheard: model 14.7% vs market 19.6% (-4.9 points)Unheard-4.9Quiet Maddelena: model 14.2% vs market 11.2% (+3.0 points)Quiet Maddelena+3.0Saucy Name: model 7.3% vs market 8.7% (-1.4 points)Saucy Name-1.4Just Follow Me: model 6.8% vs market 6.0% (+0.8 points)Just Follow Me+0.8Suigu Belle: model 6.6% vs market 6.0% (+0.6 points)Suigu Belle+0.6Fairhopecurly: model 3.8% vs market 3.7% (+0.1 points)Fairhopecurly+0.1Prima: model 3.7% vs market 4.9% (-1.2 points)Prima-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Souper Sunday26.2%22.4%+3.8
Wild Red16.7%17.4%-0.7
Unheard14.7%19.6%-4.9
Quiet Maddelena14.2%11.2%+3.0
Saucy Name7.3%8.7%-1.4
Just Follow Me6.8%6.0%+0.8
Suigu Belle6.6%6.0%+0.6
Fairhopecurly3.8%3.7%+0.1
Prima3.7%4.9%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 173286
🎯 Longshots: 741685392
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:1Shimmering Frost (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -35%
Place:4Matoaka (7/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:6Awesome Grace (5/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -58%
Other contenders:5Champagne Sunday (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +28%, 2Tweeternity (12/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +52%
Rest of field:7Swifty Kim (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 3Charming Jackie (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shimmering Frost — 24.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Shimmering Frost24.6% ◀Matoaka — 20.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Matoaka20.5%Awesome Grace — 14.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Awesome Grace14.5%Champagne Sunday — 11.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Champagne Sunday11.3%Tweeternity — 11.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Tweeternity11.3%Swifty Kim — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Swifty Kim8.9%Charming Jackie — 8.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Charming Jackie8.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shimmering Frost24.6%2/1
Matoaka20.5%3.5/1
Awesome Grace14.5%2.5/1
Champagne Sunday11.3%10/1
Tweeternity11.3%12/1
Swifty Kim8.9%8/1
Charming Jackie8.8%6/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShimmering Frost: model 24.6% vs market 26.4% (-1.8 points)Shimmering Frost-1.8Matoaka: model 20.5% vs market 17.6% (+3.0 points)Matoaka+3.0Awesome Grace: model 14.5% vs market 22.6% (-8.1 points)Awesome Grace-8.1Champagne Sunday: model 11.3% vs market 7.2% (+4.1 points)Champagne Sunday+4.1Tweeternity: model 11.3% vs market 6.1% (+5.2 points)Tweeternity+5.2Swifty Kim: model 8.9% vs market 8.8% (+0.1 points)Swifty Kim+0.1Charming Jackie: model 8.8% vs market 11.3% (-2.5 points)Charming Jackie-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shimmering Frost24.6%26.4%-1.8
Matoaka20.5%17.6%+3.0
Awesome Grace14.5%22.6%-8.1
Champagne Sunday11.3%7.2%+4.1
Tweeternity11.3%6.1%+5.2
Swifty Kim8.9%8.8%+0.1
Charming Jackie8.8%11.3%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 146357
🎯 Longshots: 1652743
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:2Minimum Forty (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:1Sinclairity (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:5Give Me The Boots (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:4Scary Speedy (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -50%, 6Luz De La Luna (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:3Cara Cara (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Minimum Forty — 33.9% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Minimum Forty33.9% ◀Sinclairity — 26.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sinclairity26.4%Give Me The Boots — 13.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Give Me The Boots13.4%Scary Speedy — 10.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Scary Speedy10.1%Luz De La Luna — 9.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Luz De La Luna9.7%Cara Cara — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Cara Cara6.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Minimum Forty33.9%1.6/1
Sinclairity26.4%2.5/1
Give Me The Boots13.4%4/1
Scary Speedy10.1%4.5/1
Luz De La Luna9.7%6/1
Cara Cara6.6%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMinimum Forty: model 33.9% vs market 30.2% (+3.7 points)Minimum Forty+3.7Sinclairity: model 26.4% vs market 22.5% (+3.9 points)Sinclairity+3.9Give Me The Boots: model 13.4% vs market 15.7% (-2.3 points)Give Me The Boots-2.3Scary Speedy: model 10.1% vs market 14.3% (-4.2 points)Scary Speedy-4.2Luz De La Luna: model 9.7% vs market 11.2% (-1.6 points)Luz De La Luna-1.6Cara Cara: model 6.6% vs market 6.0% (+0.6 points)Cara Cara+0.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Minimum Forty33.9%30.2%+3.7
Sinclairity26.4%22.5%+3.9
Give Me The Boots13.4%15.7%-2.3
Scary Speedy10.1%14.3%-4.2
Luz De La Luna9.7%11.2%-1.6
Cara Cara6.6%6.0%+0.6
🌧️ Off-track: 215463
🎯 Longshots: 213546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:3Lohan (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:4Mor Joe's Spirit (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -27%
Show:2Navy Street (6/1) 17% · fair 9-2 overlay +27%
Other contenders:1Flyonbye (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1, 5Named Firey (2/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -61%
Rest of field:6Sir Falstaff (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -52%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lohan — 22.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lohan22.6% ◀Mor Joe'S Spirit — 22.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Mor Joe'S Spirit22.5%Navy Street — 17.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Navy Street17.4%Flyonbye — 16.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Flyonbye16.5%Named Firey — 16.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Named Firey16.4%Sir Falstaff — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Sir Falstaff4.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lohan22.6%3.5/1
Mor Joe'S Spirit22.5%2.5/1
Navy Street17.4%6/1
Flyonbye16.5%4.5/1
Named Firey16.4%2/1
Sir Falstaff4.6%10/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLohan: model 22.6% vs market 17.7% (+4.9 points)Lohan+4.9Mor Joe'S Spirit: model 22.5% vs market 22.7% (-0.2 points)Mor Joe'S Spirit-0.2Navy Street: model 17.4% vs market 11.4% (+6.0 points)Navy Street+6.0Flyonbye: model 16.5% vs market 14.5% (+2.0 points)Flyonbye+2.0Named Firey: model 16.4% vs market 26.5% (-10.1 points)Named Firey-10.1Sir Falstaff: model 4.6% vs market 7.2% (-2.6 points)Sir Falstaff-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lohan22.6%17.7%+4.9
Mor Joe'S Spirit22.5%22.7%-0.2
Navy Street17.4%11.4%+6.0
Flyonbye16.5%14.5%+2.0
Named Firey16.4%26.5%-10.1
Sir Falstaff4.6%7.2%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 435126
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:2Miss Brit (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -25%
Place:3Spirit Of Indy (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:9Lemon Sweets (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%
Other contenders:11Ruby's Appeal (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%, 10Super Red (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 1Tallawah (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 7That's A Fact (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:5Danish Cookie (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -48%, 8Bermuda Brew (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2, 4Flightmare (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%, 6C And J On Holiday (20/1) 1% · fair 143-2 underlay -72%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss Brit — 20.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Miss Brit20.0% ◀Spirit Of Indy — 19.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Spirit Of Indy19.6%Lemon Sweets — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Lemon Sweets14.0%Ruby'S Appeal — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Ruby'S Appeal10.4%Super Red — 8.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Super Red8.7%Tallawah — 7.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Tallawah7.2%That'S A Fact — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1That'S A Fact7.1%Danish Cookie — 6.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Danish Cookie6.1%Bermuda Brew — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Bermuda Brew4.0%Flightmare — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Flightmare1.7%C And J On Holiday — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1C And J On Holiday1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss Brit20.0%3/1
Spirit Of Indy19.6%4.5/1
Lemon Sweets14.0%4/1
Ruby'S Appeal10.4%6/1
Super Red8.7%10/1
Tallawah7.2%12/1
That'S A Fact7.1%10/1
Danish Cookie6.1%8/1
Bermuda Brew4.0%20/1
Flightmare1.7%20/1
C And J On Holiday1.4%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiss Brit: model 20.0% vs market 19.4% (+0.6 points)Miss Brit+0.6Spirit Of Indy: model 19.6% vs market 14.1% (+5.5 points)Spirit Of Indy+5.5Lemon Sweets: model 14.0% vs market 15.5% (-1.6 points)Lemon Sweets-1.6Ruby'S Appeal: model 10.4% vs market 11.1% (-0.7 points)Ruby'S Appeal-0.7Super Red: model 8.7% vs market 7.1% (+1.6 points)Super Red+1.6Tallawah: model 7.2% vs market 6.0% (+1.2 points)Tallawah+1.2That'S A Fact: model 7.1% vs market 7.1% (+0.0 points)That'S A Fact+0.0Danish Cookie: model 6.1% vs market 8.6% (-2.5 points)Danish Cookie-2.5Bermuda Brew: model 4.0% vs market 3.7% (+0.3 points)Bermuda Brew+0.3Flightmare: model 1.7% vs market 3.7% (-2.0 points)Flightmare-2.0C And J On Holiday: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)C And J On Holiday-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miss Brit20.0%19.4%+0.6
Spirit Of Indy19.6%14.1%+5.5
Lemon Sweets14.0%15.5%-1.6
Ruby'S Appeal10.4%11.1%-0.7
Super Red8.7%7.1%+1.6
Tallawah7.2%6.0%+1.2
That'S A Fact7.1%7.1%+0.0
Danish Cookie6.1%8.6%-2.5
Bermuda Brew4.0%3.7%+0.3
Flightmare1.7%3.7%-2.0
C And J On Holiday1.4%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 23911105
🎯 Longshots: 2109111375846
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #9, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:6Glint Over Essa (2/1)
Place:2Flashy Affair (5/2)
Show:5Stiletto Vixen (6/1)
Other contenders:7Another Seattle (7/2), 4Marietta Babe (8/1)
Rest of field:3Forever Grateful (10/1), 1Flatter Addy (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627543
🎯 Longshots: 6247153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $27,800
Win:3Misty Eyed (3/1)
Place:6Gretna Green (5/2)
Show:9Kavala (4/1)
Other contenders:2Sparkling Silver (6/1), 4Gizmo's B F F (10/1), 1Rosieposie (12/1)
Rest of field:8Crumlin Trouble (8/1), 5Dynamic Strike (20/1), 7Nightsaber (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 639284
🎯 Longshots: 364198527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:7Oh Oh Seven (7/5)
Place:1Stormover The Nile (8/1)
Show:2Glorious Revenge (7/2)
Other contenders:4Peace Offering (9/2), 3Black Thunder (6/1), 6Zip To Zap (12/1)
Rest of field:5Wine Money (15/1), 8Hard Reload (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724136
🎯 Longshots: 71452863
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,400
Win:1Souper Sunday (5/2)
Place:2Quiet Maddelena (6/1)
Show:7Wild Red (7/2)
Other contenders:3Unheard (3/1), 8Saucy Name (8/1), 4Suigu Belle (12/1)
Rest of field:9Fairhopecurly (20/1), 5Prima (15/1), 6Just Follow Me (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 173284
🎯 Longshots: 741685392
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:1Shimmering Frost (2/1)
Place:6Awesome Grace (5/2)
Show:4Matoaka (7/2)
Other contenders:3Charming Jackie (6/1), 5Champagne Sunday (10/1)
Rest of field:7Swifty Kim (8/1), 2Tweeternity (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164375
🎯 Longshots: 1652743
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:2Minimum Forty (8/5)
Place:1Sinclairity (5/2)
Show:5Give Me The Boots (4/1)
Other contenders:6Luz De La Luna (6/1), 4Scary Speedy (9/2)
Rest of field:3Cara Cara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215463
🎯 Longshots: 213546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Navy Street (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:4Mor Joe's Spirit (5/2)
Show:3Lohan (7/2)
Other contenders:1Flyonbye (9/2), 5Named Firey (2/1)
Rest of field:6Sir Falstaff (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453126
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:2Miss Brit (3/1)
Place:3Spirit Of Indy (9/2)
Show:9Lemon Sweets (4/1)
Other contenders:1Tallawah (12/1), 10Super Red (10/1), 11Ruby's Appeal (6/1), 7That's A Fact (10/1)
Rest of field:5Danish Cookie (8/1), 8Bermuda Brew (20/1), 4Flightmare (20/1), 6C And J On Holiday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29311105
🎯 Longshots: 2109111375846
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #6, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #4 ($1 straight; box #7-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #2 over #9 ($1 straight; box #2-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
810Super Red10/1—10.2%+10.6%0.26%$0.26
TOTAL across 1 play:0.3%$0.26
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:6Glint Over Essa (2/1)
Place:2Flashy Affair (5/2)
Show:5Stiletto Vixen (6/1)
Other contenders:7Another Seattle (7/2), 3Forever Grateful (10/1)
Rest of field:4Marietta Babe (8/1), 1Flatter Addy (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627543
🎯 Longshots: 6247153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $27,800
Win:6Gretna Green (5/2)
Place:3Misty Eyed (3/1)
Show:9Kavala (4/1)
Other contenders:2Sparkling Silver (6/1), 8Crumlin Trouble (8/1), 4Gizmo's B F F (10/1)
Rest of field:1Rosieposie (12/1), 5Dynamic Strike (20/1), 7Nightsaber (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 639284
🎯 Longshots: 364198527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:7Oh Oh Seven (7/5)
Place:1Stormover The Nile (8/1)
Show:3Black Thunder (6/1)
Other contenders:2Glorious Revenge (7/2), 4Peace Offering (9/2), 5Wine Money (15/1)
Rest of field:6Zip To Zap (12/1), 8Hard Reload (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 721436
🎯 Longshots: 71452863
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,400
Win:2Quiet Maddelena (6/1)
Place:1Souper Sunday (5/2)
Show:7Wild Red (7/2)
Other contenders:5Prima (15/1), 9Fairhopecurly (20/1), 3Unheard (3/1)
Rest of field:8Saucy Name (8/1), 4Suigu Belle (12/1), 6Just Follow Me (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127385
🎯 Longshots: 741685392
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:1Shimmering Frost (2/1)
Place:5Champagne Sunday (10/1)
Show:6Awesome Grace (5/2)
Other contenders:4Matoaka (7/2), 3Charming Jackie (6/1)
Rest of field:2Tweeternity (12/1), 7Swifty Kim (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164357
🎯 Longshots: 1652743
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:2Minimum Forty (8/5)
Place:1Sinclairity (5/2)
Show:4Scary Speedy (9/2)
Other contenders:3Cara Cara (12/1), 6Luz De La Luna (6/1)
Rest of field:5Give Me The Boots (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 214563
🎯 Longshots: 213546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Navy Street (6/1)
Place:3Lohan (7/2)
Show:1Flyonbye (9/2)
Other contenders:5Named Firey (2/1), 4Mor Joe's Spirit (5/2)
Rest of field:6Sir Falstaff (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543216
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:3Spirit Of Indy (9/2)
Place:1Tallawah (12/1)
Show:9Lemon Sweets (4/1)
Other contenders:2Miss Brit (3/1), 10Super Red (10/1), 11Ruby's Appeal (6/1), 7That's A Fact (10/1)
Rest of field:5Danish Cookie (8/1), 8Bermuda Brew (20/1), 4Flightmare (20/1), 6C And J On Holiday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 23911110
🎯 Longshots: 2109111375846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600
Win:6Glint Over Essa (2/1)
Place:2Flashy Affair (5/2)
Show:5Stiletto Vixen (6/1)
Other contenders:7Another Seattle (7/2), 4Marietta Babe (8/1)
Rest of field:3Forever Grateful (10/1), 1Flatter Addy (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627543
🎯 Longshots: 6247153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $27,800
Win:3Misty Eyed (3/1)
Place:6Gretna Green (5/2)
Show:9Kavala (4/1)
Other contenders:2Sparkling Silver (6/1), 4Gizmo's B F F (10/1), 8Crumlin Trouble (8/1)
Rest of field:1Rosieposie (12/1), 5Dynamic Strike (20/1), 7Nightsaber (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 639284
🎯 Longshots: 364198527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:7Oh Oh Seven (7/5)
Place:1Stormover The Nile (8/1)
Show:2Glorious Revenge (7/2)
Other contenders:3Black Thunder (6/1), 4Peace Offering (9/2), 6Zip To Zap (12/1)
Rest of field:5Wine Money (15/1), 8Hard Reload (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724316
🎯 Longshots: 71452863
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,400
Win:2Quiet Maddelena (6/1)
Place:1Souper Sunday (5/2)
Show:7Wild Red (7/2)
Other contenders:3Unheard (3/1), 4Suigu Belle (12/1), 8Saucy Name (8/1)
Rest of field:9Fairhopecurly (20/1), 5Prima (15/1), 6Just Follow Me (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 173284
🎯 Longshots: 741685392
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:1Shimmering Frost (2/1)
Place:6Awesome Grace (5/2)
Show:5Champagne Sunday (10/1)
Other contenders:4Matoaka (7/2), 3Charming Jackie (6/1)
Rest of field:2Tweeternity (12/1), 7Swifty Kim (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164357
🎯 Longshots: 1652743
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $128,200
Win:2Minimum Forty (8/5)
Place:1Sinclairity (5/2)
Show:5Give Me The Boots (4/1)
Other contenders:4Scary Speedy (9/2), 6Luz De La Luna (6/1)
Rest of field:3Cara Cara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215463
🎯 Longshots: 213546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:2Navy Street (6/1)
Place:3Lohan (7/2)
Show:4Mor Joe's Spirit (5/2)
Other contenders:1Flyonbye (9/2), 5Named Firey (2/1)
Rest of field:6Sir Falstaff (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453216
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,700
Win:2Miss Brit (3/1)
Place:1Tallawah (12/1)
Show:3Spirit Of Indy (9/2)
Other contenders:9Lemon Sweets (4/1), 10Super Red (10/1), 11Ruby's Appeal (6/1), 7That's A Fact (10/1)
Rest of field:5Danish Cookie (8/1), 8Bermuda Brew (20/1), 4Flightmare (20/1), 6C And J On Holiday (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29311110
🎯 Longshots: 2109111375846
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6,#2 (62%) / R2: #3,#6,#9 (61%) / R3: #7,#4,#2 (73%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R5: #1,#4,#6 (60%) / R6: #2,#1 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#4,#6 (60%) / R6: #2,#1 (60%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #2,#1 (60%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (62%) / R8: #2,#3,#9 (54%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #6,#2 (62%) / R2: #3,#6,#9 (61%) / R3: #7,#4,#2 (73%) / R4: #1,#7,#3 (58%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #7,#4,#2 (73%) / R4: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R5: #1,#4,#6 (60%) / R6: #2,#1 (60%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ANOTHER SEATTLEAWESOME GRACEBERMUDA BREWBLACK THUNDERC AND J ON HOLIDAY
CHAMPAGNE SUNDAYCHARMING JACKIECRUMLIN TROUBLEDANISH COOKIEDYNAMIC STRIKE
FLASHY AFFAIRFLATTER ADDYFLIGHTMAREFLYONBYEFOREVER GRATEFUL
GIZMO'S B F FGLINT OVER ESSAGLORIOUS REVENGEGRETNA GREENHARD RELOAD
KAVALALEMON SWEETSLOHANLUZ DE LA LUNAMARIETTA BABE
MINIMUM FORTYMISS BRITMISTY EYEDMOR JOE'S SPIRITNAMED FIREY
NIGHTSABEROH OH SEVENPEACE OFFERINGPRIMAQUIET MADDELENA
RUBY'S APPEALSAUCY NAMESCARY SPEEDYSHIMMERING FROSTSINCLAIRITY
SOUPER SUNDAYSPARKLING SILVERSPIRIT OF INDYSTILETTO VIXENSTORMOVER THE NILE
SUPER REDSWIFTY KIMTALLAWAHTHAT'S A FACTTWEETERNITY
WILD REDWINE MONEYZIP TO ZAP

 


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