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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Penn National — in-the-money rate
How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 143 graded races at Penn National, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-06.
In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 74.8% | 143 |
| Morning-line favourite | 69.9% | 143 |
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $39,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 6Warrior's Finale (5/2) |
| Place: | 5Rarest Hour (4/1) |
| Show: | 7Six Of Spades (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4The Real Mo Coy (6/1), 3Gothel (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1An Album Cover (9/2), 2Moonlight Music (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 657413 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6751324 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| ◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2Our Golden Gator (4/1) |
| Place: | 5Techstar (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Remembrall (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Truthorconsequence (4/1), 3Prayed For Girl (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Just One Kiss (6/1), 6Sparkling Ruby (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 524731 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5274361 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 6Watch Me Sparkle (7/2) |
| Place: | 1I Can Explain (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Berlinwin (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Keep Her Happy (8/1), 3Miss Mo Magic (6/1), 5Urban Impulse (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Winning Play (8/1), 7Smokin Hot Wife (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 164325 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 26841573 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2What Does It Take (8/5) |
| Place: | 1Uninvited Guest (3/1) |
| Show: | 5Bold Ambition (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Lookin At Roses (5/1), 3Lomax (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 21543 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 21543 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000 | |
| Win: | 6Maximus Meridius (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Houghton Shuffle (7/2) |
| Show: | 7Great Richie M (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Showstopper Copper (5/1), 1Paterno (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Rebel Invasion (6/1), 5Squire Creek (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 647213 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6457132 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2Souper Vinnie (2/1) |
| Place: | 4More Power (3/1) |
| Show: | 6Buzz Adams (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Sharon's Prince (5/1), 1Lil Sebastian (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Whiskey Alley (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 246315 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 246135 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 1Gentle Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Infamous Nono (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Super Tiz (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5Cold As Hell (9/2), 7Federal Exchange (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Silverbullettwenty (10/1), 3Boss Holiday (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 164573 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1264357 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Penn National — win rate
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 91 graded races at Penn National, 2026-10-07 to 2026-11-06.
The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 33.0% | 91 |
| Morning-line favourite | 30.8% | 91 |
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $39,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Warrior's Finale (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 5Rarest Hour (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Six Of Spades (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4The Real Mo Coy (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 1An Album Cover (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -35% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Gothel (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -31%, 2Moonlight Music (6/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -61% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 657134 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 6751324 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5Techstar (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 2Our Golden Gator (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Truthorconsequence (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Remembrall (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 3Prayed For Girl (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 6Sparkling Ruby (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -61%, 1Just One Kiss (6/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -80% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 527431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 5274361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Berlinwin (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Watch Me Sparkle (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 1I Can Explain (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -44% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Keep Her Happy (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 8Winning Play (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 3Miss Mo Magic (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5Urban Impulse (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 7Smokin Hot Wife (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 164328 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 26841573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2What Does It Take (8/5) 39% · fair 3-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Uninvited Guest (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 5Bold Ambition (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Lookin At Roses (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%, 3Lomax (4/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -67% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 21534 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 21543 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Maximus Meridius (5/2) 36% · fair 2-1 overlay +39% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Houghton Shuffle (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Great Richie M (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Showstopper Copper (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -47%, 1Paterno (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -52% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Rebel Invasion (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53%, 5Squire Creek (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 647213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 6457132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Souper Vinnie (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Buzz Adams (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4More Power (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Sharon's Prince (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2, 1Lil Sebastian (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5Whiskey Alley (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 246315 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 246135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Gentle Breeze (5/2) 31% · fair 5-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Infamous Nono (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Super Tiz (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 5Cold As Hell (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -44%, 7Federal Exchange (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Boss Holiday (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -41%, 2Silverbullettwenty (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 146573 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1264357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 6Warrior's Finale (5/2) |
| Place: | 7Six Of Spades (6/1) |
| Show: | 5Rarest Hour (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1An Album Cover (9/2), 3Gothel (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Moonlight Music (6/1), 4The Real Mo Coy (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 651732 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6751324 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5Techstar (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Our Golden Gator (4/1) |
| Show: | 7Truthorconsequence (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Prayed For Girl (6/1), 4Remembrall (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Just One Kiss (6/1), 6Sparkling Ruby (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 527431 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5274361 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1I Can Explain (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Watch Me Sparkle (7/2) |
| Show: | 4Berlinwin (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Miss Mo Magic (6/1), 2Keep Her Happy (8/1), 8Winning Play (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Urban Impulse (8/1), 7Smokin Hot Wife (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 164328 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 26841573 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 2What Does It Take (8/5) |
| Place: | 1Uninvited Guest (3/1) |
| Show: | 5Bold Ambition (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Lookin At Roses (5/1), 3Lomax (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 21543 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 21543 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000 | |
| Win: | 6Maximus Meridius (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Houghton Shuffle (7/2) |
| Show: | 2Showstopper Copper (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Great Richie M (9/2), 1Paterno (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Rebel Invasion (6/1), 5Squire Creek (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 642713 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6457132 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4More Power (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Souper Vinnie (2/1) |
| Show: | 6Buzz Adams (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Lil Sebastian (5/1), 3Sharon's Prince (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Whiskey Alley (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 246135 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 246135 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 1Gentle Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Super Tiz (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Infamous Nono (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Federal Exchange (5/1), 5Cold As Hell (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2Silverbullettwenty (10/1), 3Boss Holiday (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 146573 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1264357 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #6, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 6Warrior's Finale (5/2) |
| Place: | 5Rarest Hour (4/1) |
| Show: | 7Six Of Spades (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4The Real Mo Coy (6/1), 3Gothel (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1An Album Cover (9/2), 2Moonlight Music (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 651734 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6751324 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5Techstar (5/2) |
| Place: | 7Truthorconsequence (4/1) |
| Show: | 3Prayed For Girl (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Our Golden Gator (4/1), 4Remembrall (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Just One Kiss (6/1), 6Sparkling Ruby (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 572431 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5274361 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1I Can Explain (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Keep Her Happy (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Berlinwin (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6Watch Me Sparkle (7/2), 3Miss Mo Magic (6/1), 5Urban Impulse (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Winning Play (8/1), 7Smokin Hot Wife (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 164325 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 26841573 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 2What Does It Take (8/5) |
| Place: | 5Bold Ambition (4/1) |
| Show: | 1Uninvited Guest (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Lookin At Roses (5/1), 3Lomax (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 21534 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 21543 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000 | |
| Win: | 6Maximus Meridius (5/2) |
| Place: | 5Squire Creek (8/1) |
| Show: | 4Houghton Shuffle (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Showstopper Copper (5/1), 7Great Richie M (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1Paterno (6/1), 3Rebel Invasion (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 642571 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6457132 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 1Lil Sebastian (5/1) |
| Place: | 6Buzz Adams (5/1) |
| Show: | 4More Power (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Souper Vinnie (2/1), 3Sharon's Prince (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Whiskey Alley (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 241635 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 246135 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 1Gentle Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Silverbullettwenty (10/1) |
| Show: | 6Infamous Nono (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Super Tiz (7/2), 7Federal Exchange (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Boss Holiday (6/1), 5Cold As Hell (9/2) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 146725 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1264357 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 7Six Of Spades (6/1) |
| Place: | 6Warrior's Finale (5/2) |
| Show: | 5Rarest Hour (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1An Album Cover (9/2), 4The Real Mo Coy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Gothel (5/1), 2Moonlight Music (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 657134 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6751324 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000 | |
| Win: | 5Techstar (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Our Golden Gator (4/1) |
| Show: | 3Prayed For Girl (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Truthorconsequence (4/1), 4Remembrall (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Sparkling Ruby (10/1), 1Just One Kiss (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 527431 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5274361 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1I Can Explain (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Watch Me Sparkle (7/2) |
| Show: | 4Berlinwin (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Keep Her Happy (8/1), 3Miss Mo Magic (6/1), 8Winning Play (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Urban Impulse (8/1), 7Smokin Hot Wife (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 164328 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 26841573 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 2What Does It Take (8/5) |
| Place: | 1Uninvited Guest (3/1) |
| Show: | 4Lookin At Roses (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Bold Ambition (4/1), 3Lomax (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 21543 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 21543 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $50,000 | |
| Win: | 6Maximus Meridius (5/2) |
| Place: | 4Houghton Shuffle (7/2) |
| Show: | 2Showstopper Copper (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Great Richie M (9/2), 5Squire Creek (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Paterno (6/1), 3Rebel Invasion (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 647213 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6457132 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 4More Power (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Souper Vinnie (2/1) |
| Show: | 6Buzz Adams (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Lil Sebastian (5/1), 3Sharon's Prince (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Whiskey Alley (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 246135 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 246135 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 1Gentle Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Infamous Nono (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Super Tiz (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Silverbullettwenty (10/1), 3Boss Holiday (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Federal Exchange (5/1), 5Cold As Hell (9/2) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 146753 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1264357 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #5,#2,#7 (66%) / R3: #4,#6,#1 (58%) / R4: #2,#1 (63%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #4,#6,#1 (58%) / R4: #2,#1 (63%) / R5: #6,#4,#7 (69%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #2,#1 (63%) / R5: #6,#4,#7 (69%) / R6: #2,#6,#4 (61%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #6,#4,#7 (69%) / R6: #2,#6,#4 (61%) / R7: #1,#6,#4 (62%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #5,#2,#7 (66%) / R3: #4,#6,#1 (58%) / R4: #2,#1 (63%) / R5: #6,#4,#7 (69%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #2,#1 (63%) / R5: #6,#4,#7 (69%) / R6: #2,#6,#4 (61%) / R7: #1,#6,#4 (62%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| AN ALBUM COVER | BERLINWIN | BOLD AMBITION | BOSS HOLIDAY | BUZZ ADAMS |
| FEDERAL EXCHANGE | GENTLE BREEZE | GOTHEL | GREAT RICHIE M | HOUGHTON SHUFFLE |
| INFAMOUS NONO | JUST ONE KISS | KEEP HER HAPPY | LIL SEBASTIAN | LOMAX |
| MAXIMUS MERIDIUS | MISS MO MAGIC | MOONLIGHT MUSIC | MORE POWER | OUR GOLDEN GATOR |
| PRAYED FOR GIRL | RAREST HOUR | REBEL INVASION | REMEMBRALL | SHARON'S PRINCE |
| SILVERBULLETTWENTY | SIX OF SPADES | SMOKIN HOT WIFE | SOUPER VINNIE | SPARKLING RUBY |
| SUPER TIZ | TECHSTAR | THE REAL MO COY | TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE | UNINVITED GUEST |
| WARRIOR'S FINALE | WATCH ME SPARKLE | WHAT DOES IT TAKE | WHISKEY ALLEY | WINNING PLAY |
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