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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, November 12, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
CDX2Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#5 – Oraia1 scratch(es)
CDX2Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#5 – Oraia1 scratch(es)
CDX2Model Weight set 3#5 – Oraia1 scratch(es)
CDX7Model Algo 1#7 – Obra Prima1 scratch(es)
CDX7Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#7 – Obra Prima1 scratch(es)
CDX7Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#7 – Obra Prima1 scratch(es)
CDX7Model Weight set 2#7 – Obra Prima1 scratch(es)
CDX7Model Weight set 3#7 – Obra Prima1 scratch(es)
CDX8Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#3 – Banned For Life2 scratch(es)
CDX8Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#3 – Banned For Life2 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5I Like To Party (8/5)
Place:4Oscar's Candy (3/1)
Show:2With You (5/2)
Other contenders:1Drain The Bourbon (8/1), 6Candor (6/1)
Rest of field:3Boss (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542163
🎯 Longshots: 524163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3You're In Heaven (9/5)
Place:5Oraia (7/5)
Show:4Angel Bella (7/2)
Other contenders:6Full Dolly (6/1), 1Justified Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:2Red Beretta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 534612
🎯 Longshots: 354162
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:10Bright Skittle (7/2)
Place:9Quintillion (5/1)
Show:3Rockfest (9/2)
Other contenders:1Helpful Howie (8/1), 8Soulman (10/1), 11Cold Draft Beer (8/1), 6Turnback (12/1)
Rest of field:5Anthony The Great (15/1), 4Unlimited (8/1), 7Boston Time (15/1), 2Our Vekoma Ride (20/1), 12Storm Commander (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10931811
🎯 Longshots: 810111945637212
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:3Shared Vision (6/5)
Place:2Getting After It (4/1)
Show:7Lexico (9/2)
Other contenders:5G Rocks (5/1), 6Quinn's Promise (6/1)
Rest of field:1Denise Says No (20/1), 4Ride The Broom (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327564
🎯 Longshots: 3276514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Order Restored (9/5)
Place:3Leedu (5/2)
Show:1Hathaway (4/1)
Other contenders:5Munnings Monet (5/1), 4Got The Ring (8/1)
Rest of field:2Will's Ali (10/1), 7Bella Luna (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631542
🎯 Longshots: 6431527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Lovely Grey (3/1)
Place:6High South (7/2)
Show:4Tramuntana (4/1)
Other contenders:12Moonlight Dash (8/1), 3Forget About You (10/1), 2Rain Gold (8/1), 16Trusty Troutman (15/1), 7El Joury (15/1)
Rest of field:15Now Or Nevermore (20/1), 13Temple Goddess (20/1), 10Maverick Queen (20/1), 1Forgotten About (20/1), 5Flower River (20/1), 11Risen Power (20/1), 14Lady Sybil (30/1), 9Power To Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8641223
🎯 Longshots: 12863241610151113714159
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Harry Houdini (5/2)
Place:7Obra Prima (3/1)
Show:1Consequential (4/1)
Other contenders:8Feeling Grand (6/1), 4King Lee (6/1), 3Most Probable (8/1)
Rest of field:2Don't U Shush Me (10/1), 5Berniedott (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 671843
🎯 Longshots: 67318524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $89,000
Win:4Tarantino (5/2)
Place:3Banned For Life (3/1)
Show:5Track Phantom (7/2)
Other contenders:2Accretive (8/1), 6Can't Hush This (5/1), 7Risk It (8/1)
Rest of field:1Charlie Foxtrot (12/1), 8Zambezi (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 435627
🎯 Longshots: 43127568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $78,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Demolition Duke (9/2)
Place:9Son Of A Birch (6/1)
Show:4Sea Singer (4/1)
Other contenders:10Out Of Deductions (5/1), 6Charge For Gold (15/1), 8Baltimore Heart (8/1), 11Exact Estimate (8/1), 1Risk Manager (8/1)
Rest of field:15Debt Paid (10/1), 3Skyro (10/1), 13Sugoi (15/1), 16The Minkster (20/1), 12Real Fast (30/1), 7Sambalover (30/1), 14Woodcock Flight (30/1), 5Professor Higgins (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 24910811
🎯 Longshots: 86492111513311016712145
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #4, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:4Oscar's Candy (3/1) 47% · fair 1-1 overlay +163%
Place:1Drain The Bourbon (8/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +105%
Show:5I Like To Party (8/5) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -68%
Other contenders:2With You (5/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -76%, 6Candor (6/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -68%
Rest of field:3Boss (12/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -71%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Oscar'S Candy — 46.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Oscar'S Candy46.7% ◀Drain The Bourbon — 20.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Drain The Bourbon20.4%I Like To Party — 16.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1I Like To Party16.8%With You — 8.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1With You8.8%Candor — 5.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Candor5.1%Boss — 2.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Boss2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Oscar'S Candy46.7%3/1
Drain The Bourbon20.4%8/1
I Like To Party16.8%1.6/1
With You8.8%2.5/1
Candor5.1%6/1
Boss2.3%12/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOscar'S Candy: model 46.7% vs market 20.0% (+26.7 points)Oscar'S Candy+26.7Drain The Bourbon: model 20.4% vs market 8.9% (+11.5 points)Drain The Bourbon+11.5I Like To Party: model 16.8% vs market 30.7% (-14.0 points)I Like To Party-14.0With You: model 8.8% vs market 22.8% (-14.1 points)With You-14.1Candor: model 5.1% vs market 11.4% (-6.4 points)Candor-6.4Boss: model 2.3% vs market 6.1% (-3.8 points)Boss-3.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Oscar'S Candy46.7%20.0%+26.7
Drain The Bourbon20.4%8.9%+11.5
I Like To Party16.8%30.7%-14.0
With You8.8%22.8%-14.1
Candor5.1%11.4%-6.4
Boss2.3%6.1%-3.8
🌧️ Off-track: 452163
🎯 Longshots: 524163
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:3You're In Heaven (9/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:5Oraia (7/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -33%
Show:4Angel Bella (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:6Full Dolly (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 1Justified Gift (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:2Red Beretta (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

You'Re In Heaven — 33.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1You'Re In Heaven33.6% ◀Oraia — 32.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Oraia32.3%Angel Bella — 19.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Angel Bella19.3%Full Dolly — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Full Dolly7.7%Justified Gift — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Justified Gift4.3%Red Beretta — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Red Beretta2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
You'Re In Heaven33.6%1.8/1
Oraia32.3%1.4/1
Angel Bella19.3%3.5/1
Full Dolly7.7%6/1
Justified Gift4.3%12/1
Red Beretta2.9%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherYou'Re In Heaven: model 33.6% vs market 28.3% (+5.3 points)You'Re In Heaven+5.3Oraia: model 32.3% vs market 33.0% (-0.7 points)Oraia-0.7Angel Bella: model 19.3% vs market 17.6% (+1.7 points)Angel Bella+1.7Full Dolly: model 7.7% vs market 11.3% (-3.6 points)Full Dolly-3.6Justified Gift: model 4.3% vs market 6.1% (-1.8 points)Justified Gift-1.8Red Beretta: model 2.9% vs market 3.8% (-0.9 points)Red Beretta-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
You'Re In Heaven33.6%28.3%+5.3
Oraia32.3%33.0%-0.7
Angel Bella19.3%17.6%+1.7
Full Dolly7.7%11.3%-3.6
Justified Gift4.3%6.1%-1.8
Red Beretta2.9%3.8%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 534612
🎯 Longshots: 354162
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:10Bright Skittle (7/2) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +48%
Place:9Quintillion (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:3Rockfest (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -43%
Other contenders:1Helpful Howie (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%, 11Cold Draft Beer (8/1) 8% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%, 8Soulman (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 4Unlimited (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:6Turnback (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -32%, 5Anthony The Great (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -38%, 2Our Vekoma Ride (20/1) 2% · fair 103-2 underlay -61%, 7Boston Time (15/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -77%, 12Storm Commander (30/1) 1% · fair 148-1 underlay -80%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bright Skittle — 29.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bright Skittle29.7% ◀Quintillion — 17.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Quintillion17.3%Rockfest — 11.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Rockfest11.2%Helpful Howie — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Helpful Howie8.2%Cold Draft Beer — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Cold Draft Beer7.5%Soulman — 7.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Soulman7.2%Unlimited — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Unlimited5.4%Turnback — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Turnback5.4%Anthony The Great — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Anthony The Great3.9%Our Vekoma Ride — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Our Vekoma Ride1.9%Boston Time — 1.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Boston Time1.5%Storm Commander — 0.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Storm Commander0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bright Skittle29.7%3.5/1
Quintillion17.3%5/1
Rockfest11.2%4.5/1
Helpful Howie8.2%8/1
Cold Draft Beer7.5%8/1
Soulman7.2%10/1
Unlimited5.4%8/1
Turnback5.4%12/1
Anthony The Great3.9%15/1
Our Vekoma Ride1.9%20/1
Boston Time1.5%15/1
Storm Commander0.7%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBright Skittle: model 29.7% vs market 17.4% (+12.3 points)Bright Skittle+12.3Quintillion: model 17.3% vs market 13.1% (+4.3 points)Quintillion+4.3Rockfest: model 11.2% vs market 14.2% (-3.0 points)Rockfest-3.0Helpful Howie: model 8.2% vs market 8.7% (-0.5 points)Helpful Howie-0.5Cold Draft Beer: model 7.5% vs market 8.7% (-1.2 points)Cold Draft Beer-1.2Soulman: model 7.2% vs market 7.1% (+0.1 points)Soulman+0.1Unlimited: model 5.4% vs market 8.7% (-3.3 points)Unlimited-3.3Turnback: model 5.4% vs market 6.0% (-0.7 points)Turnback-0.7Anthony The Great: model 3.9% vs market 4.9% (-1.0 points)Anthony The Great-1.0Our Vekoma Ride: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Our Vekoma Ride-1.8Boston Time: model 1.5% vs market 4.9% (-3.4 points)Boston Time-3.4Storm Commander: model 0.7% vs market 2.5% (-1.9 points)Storm Commander-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bright Skittle29.7%17.4%+12.3
Quintillion17.3%13.1%+4.3
Rockfest11.2%14.2%-3.0
Helpful Howie8.2%8.7%-0.5
Cold Draft Beer7.5%8.7%-1.2
Soulman7.2%7.1%+0.1
Unlimited5.4%8.7%-3.3
Turnback5.4%6.0%-0.7
Anthony The Great3.9%4.9%-1.0
Our Vekoma Ride1.9%3.7%-1.8
Boston Time1.5%4.9%-3.4
Storm Commander0.7%2.5%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 10931114
🎯 Longshots: 810111945637212
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:3Shared Vision (6/5) 44% · fair 3-2
Place:7Lexico (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:2Getting After It (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%
Other contenders:5G Rocks (5/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -56%, 6Quinn's Promise (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -49%
Rest of field:1Denise Says No (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 4Ride The Broom (15/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -60%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shared Vision — 44.1% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Shared Vision44.1% ◀Lexico — 19.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Lexico19.6%Getting After It — 13.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Getting After It13.9%G Rocks — 8.1% win probability, morning line 5/1G Rocks8.1%Quinn'S Promise — 7.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Quinn'S Promise7.8%Denise Says No — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Denise Says No3.8%Ride The Broom — 2.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Ride The Broom2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shared Vision44.1%1.2/1
Lexico19.6%4.5/1
Getting After It13.9%4/1
G Rocks8.1%5/1
Quinn'S Promise7.8%6/1
Denise Says No3.8%20/1
Ride The Broom2.6%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShared Vision: model 44.1% vs market 36.2% (+7.9 points)Shared Vision+7.9Lexico: model 19.6% vs market 14.5% (+5.1 points)Lexico+5.1Getting After It: model 13.9% vs market 15.9% (-2.0 points)Getting After It-2.0G Rocks: model 8.1% vs market 13.3% (-5.1 points)G Rocks-5.1Quinn'S Promise: model 7.8% vs market 11.4% (-3.6 points)Quinn'S Promise-3.6Denise Says No: model 3.8% vs market 3.8% (+0.0 points)Denise Says No+0.0Ride The Broom: model 2.6% vs market 5.0% (-2.4 points)Ride The Broom-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shared Vision44.1%36.2%+7.9
Lexico19.6%14.5%+5.1
Getting After It13.9%15.9%-2.0
G Rocks8.1%13.3%-5.1
Quinn'S Promise7.8%11.4%-3.6
Denise Says No3.8%3.8%+0.0
Ride The Broom2.6%5.0%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 372564
🎯 Longshots: 3276514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Order Restored (9/5) 49% · fair 1-1 overlay +70%
Place:1Hathaway (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:3Leedu (5/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -63%
Other contenders:5Munnings Monet (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -41%, 4Got The Ring (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%
Rest of field:2Will's Ali (10/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -79%, 7Bella Luna (20/1) 1% · fair 93-1 underlay -79%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Order Restored — 48.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Order Restored48.6% ◀Hathaway — 17.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Hathaway17.8%Leedu — 13.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Leedu13.0%Munnings Monet — 10.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Munnings Monet10.5%Got The Ring — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Got The Ring6.9%Will'S Ali — 2.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Will'S Ali2.1%Bella Luna — 1.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Bella Luna1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Order Restored48.6%1.8/1
Hathaway17.8%4/1
Leedu13.0%2.5/1
Munnings Monet10.5%5/1
Got The Ring6.9%8/1
Will'S Ali2.1%10/1
Bella Luna1.1%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOrder Restored: model 48.6% vs market 28.4% (+20.2 points)Order Restored+20.2Hathaway: model 17.8% vs market 15.9% (+1.9 points)Hathaway+1.9Leedu: model 13.0% vs market 22.7% (-9.7 points)Leedu-9.7Munnings Monet: model 10.5% vs market 13.2% (-2.7 points)Munnings Monet-2.7Got The Ring: model 6.9% vs market 8.8% (-1.9 points)Got The Ring-1.9Will'S Ali: model 2.1% vs market 7.2% (-5.1 points)Will'S Ali-5.1Bella Luna: model 1.1% vs market 3.8% (-2.7 points)Bella Luna-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Order Restored48.6%28.4%+20.2
Hathaway17.8%15.9%+1.9
Leedu13.0%22.7%-9.7
Munnings Monet10.5%13.2%-2.7
Got The Ring6.9%8.8%-1.9
Will'S Ali2.1%7.2%-5.1
Bella Luna1.1%3.8%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 631542
🎯 Longshots: 6431527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6High South (7/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Place:8Lovely Grey (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:4Tramuntana (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:12Moonlight Dash (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 3Forget About You (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 2Rain Gold (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%, 15Now Or Nevermore (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -39%, 7El Joury (15/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:16Trusty Troutman (15/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -64%, 10Maverick Queen (20/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -55%, 13Temple Goddess (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 5Flower River (20/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -63%, 14Lady Sybil (30/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -45%, 1Forgotten About (20/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -69%, 11Risen Power (20/1) 1% · fair 72-1 underlay -72%, 9Power To Glory (30/1) 0% · fair 394-1 underlay -92%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

High South — 21.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1High South21.4% ◀Lovely Grey — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Lovely Grey20.2%Tramuntana — 12.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Tramuntana12.6%Moonlight Dash — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Moonlight Dash10.1%Forget About You — 9.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Forget About You9.1%Rain Gold — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Rain Gold8.0%Now Or Nevermore — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Now Or Nevermore2.9%El Joury — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1El Joury2.4%Trusty Troutman — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Trusty Troutman2.4%Maverick Queen — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Maverick Queen2.2%Temple Goddess — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Temple Goddess1.9%Flower River — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Flower River1.8%Lady Sybil — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Lady Sybil1.8%Forgotten About — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Forgotten About1.5%Risen Power — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Risen Power1.4%Power To Glory — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Power To Glory0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
High South21.4%3.5/1
Lovely Grey20.2%3/1
Tramuntana12.6%4/1
Moonlight Dash10.1%8/1
Forget About You9.1%10/1
Rain Gold8.0%8/1
Now Or Nevermore2.9%20/1
El Joury2.4%15/1
Trusty Troutman2.4%15/1
Maverick Queen2.2%20/1
Temple Goddess1.9%20/1
Flower River1.8%20/1
Lady Sybil1.8%30/1
Forgotten About1.5%20/1
Risen Power1.4%20/1
Power To Glory0.3%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHigh South: model 21.4% vs market 15.2% (+6.2 points)High South+6.2Lovely Grey: model 20.2% vs market 17.1% (+3.1 points)Lovely Grey+3.1Tramuntana: model 12.6% vs market 13.7% (-1.1 points)Tramuntana-1.1Moonlight Dash: model 10.1% vs market 7.6% (+2.5 points)Moonlight Dash+2.5Forget About You: model 9.1% vs market 6.2% (+2.8 points)Forget About You+2.8Rain Gold: model 8.0% vs market 7.6% (+0.4 points)Rain Gold+0.4Now Or Nevermore: model 2.9% vs market 3.3% (-0.3 points)Now Or Nevermore-0.3El Joury: model 2.4% vs market 4.3% (-1.9 points)El Joury-1.9Trusty Troutman: model 2.4% vs market 4.3% (-1.9 points)Trusty Troutman-1.9Maverick Queen: model 2.2% vs market 3.3% (-1.1 points)Maverick Queen-1.1Temple Goddess: model 1.9% vs market 3.3% (-1.3 points)Temple Goddess-1.3Flower River: model 1.8% vs market 3.3% (-1.4 points)Flower River-1.4Lady Sybil: model 1.8% vs market 2.2% (-0.4 points)Lady Sybil-0.4Forgotten About: model 1.5% vs market 3.3% (-1.7 points)Forgotten About-1.7Risen Power: model 1.4% vs market 3.3% (-1.9 points)Risen Power-1.9Power To Glory: model 0.3% vs market 2.2% (-2.0 points)Power To Glory-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
High South21.4%15.2%+6.2
Lovely Grey20.2%17.1%+3.1
Tramuntana12.6%13.7%-1.1
Moonlight Dash10.1%7.6%+2.5
Forget About You9.1%6.2%+2.8
Rain Gold8.0%7.6%+0.4
Now Or Nevermore2.9%3.3%-0.3
El Joury2.4%4.3%-1.9
Trusty Troutman2.4%4.3%-1.9
Maverick Queen2.2%3.3%-1.1
Temple Goddess1.9%3.3%-1.3
Flower River1.8%3.3%-1.4
Lady Sybil1.8%2.2%-0.4
Forgotten About1.5%3.3%-1.7
Risen Power1.4%3.3%-1.9
Power To Glory0.3%2.2%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 8641223
🎯 Longshots: 12863241610151113714159
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Harry Houdini (5/2) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:7Obra Prima (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Show:1Consequential (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:4King Lee (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -25%, 3Most Probable (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Feeling Grand (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:2Don't U Shush Me (10/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -59%, 5Berniedott (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Harry Houdini — 32.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Harry Houdini32.1% ◀Obra Prima — 16.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Obra Prima16.3%Consequential — 14.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Consequential14.1%King Lee — 11.1% win probability, morning line 6/1King Lee11.1%Most Probable — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Most Probable10.2%Feeling Grand — 8.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Feeling Grand8.9%Don'T U Shush Me — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Don'T U Shush Me3.9%Berniedott — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Berniedott3.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Harry Houdini32.1%2.5/1
Obra Prima16.3%3/1
Consequential14.1%4/1
King Lee11.1%6/1
Most Probable10.2%8/1
Feeling Grand8.9%6/1
Don'T U Shush Me3.9%10/1
Berniedott3.4%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHarry Houdini: model 32.1% vs market 22.5% (+9.7 points)Harry Houdini+9.7Obra Prima: model 16.3% vs market 19.7% (-3.4 points)Obra Prima-3.4Consequential: model 14.1% vs market 15.7% (-1.6 points)Consequential-1.6King Lee: model 11.1% vs market 11.2% (-0.2 points)King Lee-0.2Most Probable: model 10.2% vs market 8.7% (+1.4 points)Most Probable+1.4Feeling Grand: model 8.9% vs market 11.2% (-2.4 points)Feeling Grand-2.4Don'T U Shush Me: model 3.9% vs market 7.2% (-3.2 points)Don'T U Shush Me-3.2Berniedott: model 3.4% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Berniedott-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Harry Houdini32.1%22.5%+9.7
Obra Prima16.3%19.7%-3.4
Consequential14.1%15.7%-1.6
King Lee11.1%11.2%-0.2
Most Probable10.2%8.7%+1.4
Feeling Grand8.9%11.2%-2.4
Don'T U Shush Me3.9%7.2%-3.2
Berniedott3.4%3.7%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 671483
🎯 Longshots: 67318524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $89,000
Win:4Tarantino (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:3Banned For Life (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%
Show:6Can't Hush This (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:5Track Phantom (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -52%, 7Risk It (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 2Accretive (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:1Charlie Foxtrot (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 8Zambezi (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -25%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tarantino — 24.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Tarantino24.9% ◀Banned For Life — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Banned For Life16.4%Can'T Hush This — 14.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Can'T Hush This14.9%Track Phantom — 12.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Track Phantom12.1%Risk It — 11.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Risk It11.3%Accretive — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Accretive9.1%Charlie Foxtrot — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Charlie Foxtrot6.5%Zambezi — 4.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Zambezi4.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tarantino24.9%2.5/1
Banned For Life16.4%3/1
Can'T Hush This14.9%5/1
Track Phantom12.1%3.5/1
Risk It11.3%8/1
Accretive9.1%8/1
Charlie Foxtrot6.5%12/1
Zambezi4.7%15/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTarantino: model 24.9% vs market 22.2% (+2.7 points)Tarantino+2.7Banned For Life: model 16.4% vs market 19.4% (-3.1 points)Banned For Life-3.1Can'T Hush This: model 14.9% vs market 13.0% (+2.0 points)Can'T Hush This+2.0Track Phantom: model 12.1% vs market 17.3% (-5.1 points)Track Phantom-5.1Risk It: model 11.3% vs market 8.6% (+2.6 points)Risk It+2.6Accretive: model 9.1% vs market 8.6% (+0.5 points)Accretive+0.5Charlie Foxtrot: model 6.5% vs market 6.0% (+0.5 points)Charlie Foxtrot+0.5Zambezi: model 4.7% vs market 4.9% (-0.1 points)Zambezi-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tarantino24.9%22.2%+2.7
Banned For Life16.4%19.4%-3.1
Can'T Hush This14.9%13.0%+2.0
Track Phantom12.1%17.3%-5.1
Risk It11.3%8.6%+2.6
Accretive9.1%8.6%+0.5
Charlie Foxtrot6.5%6.0%+0.5
Zambezi4.7%4.9%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 435672
🎯 Longshots: 43127568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:9Son Of A Birch (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Place:4Sea Singer (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -33%
Show:2Demolition Duke (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -26%
Other contenders:10Out Of Deductions (5/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -48%, 8Baltimore Heart (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 11Exact Estimate (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 1Risk Manager (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%, 6Charge For Gold (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2
Rest of field:3Skyro (10/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -50%, 13Sugoi (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -31%, 15Debt Paid (10/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -69%, 16The Minkster (20/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -63%, 7Sambalover (30/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -50%, 12Real Fast (30/1) 1% · fair 74-1 underlay -59%, 14Woodcock Flight (30/1) 1% · fair 156-1 underlay -81%, 5Professor Higgins (50/1) 1% · fair 317-2 underlay -68%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Son Of A Birch — 16.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Son Of A Birch16.1% ◀Sea Singer — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Sea Singer14.3%Demolition Duke — 14.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Demolition Duke14.1%Out Of Deductions — 9.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Out Of Deductions9.5%Baltimore Heart — 9.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Baltimore Heart9.4%Exact Estimate — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Exact Estimate7.3%Risk Manager — 5.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Risk Manager5.9%Charge For Gold — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Charge For Gold5.4%Skyro — 4.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Skyro4.8%Sugoi — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Sugoi4.4%Debt Paid — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Debt Paid3.0%The Minkster — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1The Minkster1.8%Sambalover — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Sambalover1.6%Real Fast — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Real Fast1.3%Woodcock Flight — 0.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Woodcock Flight0.6%Professor Higgins — 0.6% win probability, morning line 50/1Professor Higgins0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Son Of A Birch16.1%6/1
Sea Singer14.3%4/1
Demolition Duke14.1%4.5/1
Out Of Deductions9.5%5/1
Baltimore Heart9.4%8/1
Exact Estimate7.3%8/1
Risk Manager5.9%8/1
Charge For Gold5.4%15/1
Skyro4.8%10/1
Sugoi4.4%15/1
Debt Paid3.0%10/1
The Minkster1.8%20/1
Sambalover1.6%30/1
Real Fast1.3%30/1
Woodcock Flight0.6%30/1
Professor Higgins0.6%50/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSon Of A Birch: model 16.1% vs market 9.6% (+6.5 points)Son Of A Birch+6.5Sea Singer: model 14.3% vs market 13.4% (+0.9 points)Sea Singer+0.9Demolition Duke: model 14.1% vs market 12.2% (+1.9 points)Demolition Duke+1.9Out Of Deductions: model 9.5% vs market 11.1% (-1.7 points)Out Of Deductions-1.7Baltimore Heart: model 9.4% vs market 7.4% (+1.9 points)Baltimore Heart+1.9Exact Estimate: model 7.3% vs market 7.4% (-0.1 points)Exact Estimate-0.1Risk Manager: model 5.9% vs market 7.4% (-1.5 points)Risk Manager-1.5Charge For Gold: model 5.4% vs market 4.2% (+1.3 points)Charge For Gold+1.3Skyro: model 4.8% vs market 6.1% (-1.3 points)Skyro-1.3Sugoi: model 4.4% vs market 4.2% (+0.2 points)Sugoi+0.2Debt Paid: model 3.0% vs market 6.1% (-3.1 points)Debt Paid-3.1The Minkster: model 1.8% vs market 3.2% (-1.4 points)The Minkster-1.4Sambalover: model 1.6% vs market 2.2% (-0.5 points)Sambalover-0.5Real Fast: model 1.3% vs market 2.2% (-0.8 points)Real Fast-0.8Woodcock Flight: model 0.6% vs market 2.2% (-1.5 points)Woodcock Flight-1.5Professor Higgins: model 0.6% vs market 1.3% (-0.7 points)Professor Higgins-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Son Of A Birch16.1%9.6%+6.5
Sea Singer14.3%13.4%+0.9
Demolition Duke14.1%12.2%+1.9
Out Of Deductions9.5%11.1%-1.7
Baltimore Heart9.4%7.4%+1.9
Exact Estimate7.3%7.4%-0.1
Risk Manager5.9%7.4%-1.5
Charge For Gold5.4%4.2%+1.3
Skyro4.8%6.1%-1.3
Sugoi4.4%4.2%+0.2
Debt Paid3.0%6.1%-3.1
The Minkster1.8%3.2%-1.4
Sambalover1.6%2.2%-0.5
Real Fast1.3%2.2%-0.8
Woodcock Flight0.6%2.2%-1.5
Professor Higgins0.6%1.3%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 42910811
🎯 Longshots: 86492111513311016712145
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Churchill Downs — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 521 graded races at Churchill Downs, 2026-04-25 to 2026-11-08.

$0$2$4$6$7Our top pick: $5.97 from 145 racesOur top pick$5.97Morning-line favourite: $5.18 from 143 racesMorning-line favourite$5.18

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.97145
Morning-line favourite$5.18143
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:2With You (5/2)
Place:4Oscar's Candy (3/1)
Show:5I Like To Party (8/5)
Other contenders:1Drain The Bourbon (8/1), 6Candor (6/1)
Rest of field:3Boss (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524163
🎯 Longshots: 524163
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:5Oraia (7/5)
Place:3You're In Heaven (9/5)
Show:4Angel Bella (7/2)
Other contenders:6Full Dolly (6/1), 1Justified Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:2Red Beretta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 534612
🎯 Longshots: 354162
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:10Bright Skittle (7/2)
Place:8Soulman (10/1)
Show:9Quintillion (5/1)
Other contenders:3Rockfest (9/2), 6Turnback (12/1), 11Cold Draft Beer (8/1), 1Helpful Howie (8/1)
Rest of field:4Unlimited (8/1), 5Anthony The Great (15/1), 2Our Vekoma Ride (20/1), 7Boston Time (15/1), 12Storm Commander (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10938111
🎯 Longshots: 810111945637212
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #8, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:3Shared Vision (6/5)
Place:2Getting After It (4/1)
Show:7Lexico (9/2)
Other contenders:5G Rocks (5/1), 6Quinn's Promise (6/1)
Rest of field:1Denise Says No (20/1), 4Ride The Broom (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327564
🎯 Longshots: 3276514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Order Restored (9/5)
Place:3Leedu (5/2)
Show:5Munnings Monet (5/1)
Other contenders:1Hathaway (4/1), 4Got The Ring (8/1)
Rest of field:2Will's Ali (10/1), 7Bella Luna (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631542
🎯 Longshots: 6431527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:8Lovely Grey (3/1)
Place:6High South (7/2)
Show:4Tramuntana (4/1)
Other contenders:12Moonlight Dash (8/1), 2Rain Gold (8/1), 3Forget About You (10/1), 7El Joury (15/1), 15Now Or Nevermore (20/1)
Rest of field:13Temple Goddess (20/1), 10Maverick Queen (20/1), 16Trusty Troutman (15/1), 1Forgotten About (20/1), 11Risen Power (20/1), 14Lady Sybil (30/1), 5Flower River (20/1), 9Power To Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8641223
🎯 Longshots: 12863241610151113714159
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Harry Houdini (5/2)
Place:7Obra Prima (3/1)
Show:1Consequential (4/1)
Other contenders:8Feeling Grand (6/1), 4King Lee (6/1), 3Most Probable (8/1)
Rest of field:2Don't U Shush Me (10/1), 5Berniedott (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 671843
🎯 Longshots: 67318524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $89,000
Win:3Banned For Life (3/1)
Place:5Track Phantom (7/2)
Show:4Tarantino (5/2)
Other contenders:6Can't Hush This (5/1), 2Accretive (8/1), 7Risk It (8/1)
Rest of field:1Charlie Foxtrot (12/1), 8Zambezi (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345627
🎯 Longshots: 43127568
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:9Son Of A Birch (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Demolition Duke (9/2)
Show:8Baltimore Heart (8/1)
Other contenders:4Sea Singer (4/1), 6Charge For Gold (15/1), 10Out Of Deductions (5/1), 11Exact Estimate (8/1), 1Risk Manager (8/1)
Rest of field:13Sugoi (15/1), 3Skyro (10/1), 15Debt Paid (10/1), 7Sambalover (30/1), 16The Minkster (20/1), 12Real Fast (30/1), 5Professor Higgins (50/1), 14Woodcock Flight (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 24910811
🎯 Longshots: 86492111513311016712145
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #10 over #9 ($1 straight; box #10-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #9, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #6 ($1 straight; box #8-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
96Charge For Gold15/1—11.2%+78.7%1.31%$1.31
38Soulman10/1—10.3%+13.1%0.33%$0.33
614Lady Sybil ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-31.8%0.00%$0.00
615Now Or Nevermore ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-33.3%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 4 plays:1.6%$1.64
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:5I Like To Party (8/5)
Place:2With You (5/2)
Show:4Oscar's Candy (3/1)
Other contenders:1Drain The Bourbon (8/1), 6Candor (6/1)
Rest of field:3Boss (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524163
🎯 Longshots: 524163
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:5Oraia (7/5)
Place:3You're In Heaven (9/5)
Show:4Angel Bella (7/2)
Other contenders:6Full Dolly (6/1), 1Justified Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:2Red Beretta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 534612
🎯 Longshots: 354162
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:10Bright Skittle (7/2)
Place:8Soulman (10/1)
Show:6Turnback (12/1)
Other contenders:3Rockfest (9/2), 11Cold Draft Beer (8/1), 9Quintillion (5/1), 1Helpful Howie (8/1)
Rest of field:4Unlimited (8/1), 5Anthony The Great (15/1), 7Boston Time (15/1), 2Our Vekoma Ride (20/1), 12Storm Commander (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10398111
🎯 Longshots: 810111945637212
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #8, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:3Shared Vision (6/5)
Place:2Getting After It (4/1)
Show:5G Rocks (5/1)
Other contenders:7Lexico (9/2), 6Quinn's Promise (6/1)
Rest of field:1Denise Says No (20/1), 4Ride The Broom (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327564
🎯 Longshots: 3276514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Order Restored (9/5)
Place:3Leedu (5/2)
Show:5Munnings Monet (5/1)
Other contenders:1Hathaway (4/1), 4Got The Ring (8/1)
Rest of field:2Will's Ali (10/1), 7Bella Luna (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631542
🎯 Longshots: 6431527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6High South (7/2)
Place:4Tramuntana (4/1)
Show:8Lovely Grey (3/1)
Other contenders:12Moonlight Dash (8/1), 2Rain Gold (8/1), 3Forget About You (10/1), 7El Joury (15/1), 16Trusty Troutman (15/1)
Rest of field:10Maverick Queen (20/1), 11Risen Power (20/1), 1Forgotten About (20/1), 13Temple Goddess (20/1), 15Now Or Nevermore (20/1), 9Power To Glory (30/1), 5Flower River (20/1), 14Lady Sybil (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6841223
🎯 Longshots: 12863241610151113714159
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #8, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Harry Houdini (5/2)
Place:7Obra Prima (3/1)
Show:4King Lee (6/1)
Other contenders:1Consequential (4/1), 8Feeling Grand (6/1), 3Most Probable (8/1)
Rest of field:5Berniedott (20/1), 2Don't U Shush Me (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 671483
🎯 Longshots: 67318524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $89,000
Win:3Banned For Life (3/1)
Place:5Track Phantom (7/2)
Show:2Accretive (8/1)
Other contenders:4Tarantino (5/2), 6Can't Hush This (5/1), 1Charlie Foxtrot (12/1)
Rest of field:7Risk It (8/1), 8Zambezi (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345627
🎯 Longshots: 43127568
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:9Son Of A Birch (6/1)
Place:10Out Of Deductions (5/1)
Show:6Charge For Gold (15/1)
Other contenders:4Sea Singer (4/1), 2Demolition Duke (9/2), 8Baltimore Heart (8/1), 11Exact Estimate (8/1), 3Skyro (10/1)
Rest of field:1Risk Manager (8/1), 13Sugoi (15/1), 15Debt Paid (10/1), 16The Minkster (20/1), 7Sambalover (30/1), 14Woodcock Flight (30/1), 12Real Fast (30/1), 5Professor Higgins (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 49102811
🎯 Longshots: 86492111513311016712145
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:2With You (5/2)
Place:4Oscar's Candy (3/1)
Show:1Drain The Bourbon (8/1)
Other contenders:5I Like To Party (8/5), 6Candor (6/1)
Rest of field:3Boss (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524163
🎯 Longshots: 524163
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:3You're In Heaven (9/5)
Place:5Oraia (7/5)
Show:4Angel Bella (7/2)
Other contenders:1Justified Gift (12/1), 6Full Dolly (6/1)
Rest of field:2Red Beretta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 534612
🎯 Longshots: 354162
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:10Bright Skittle (7/2)
Place:9Quintillion (5/1)
Show:8Soulman (10/1)
Other contenders:1Helpful Howie (8/1), 3Rockfest (9/2), 6Turnback (12/1), 11Cold Draft Beer (8/1)
Rest of field:5Anthony The Great (15/1), 4Unlimited (8/1), 7Boston Time (15/1), 2Our Vekoma Ride (20/1), 12Storm Commander (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10931811
🎯 Longshots: 810111945637212
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:3Shared Vision (6/5)
Place:7Lexico (9/2)
Show:2Getting After It (4/1)
Other contenders:5G Rocks (5/1), 1Denise Says No (20/1)
Rest of field:6Quinn's Promise (6/1), 4Ride The Broom (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372564
🎯 Longshots: 3276514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Order Restored (9/5)
Place:3Leedu (5/2)
Show:1Hathaway (4/1)
Other contenders:4Got The Ring (8/1), 5Munnings Monet (5/1)
Rest of field:2Will's Ali (10/1), 7Bella Luna (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631542
🎯 Longshots: 6431527
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:8Lovely Grey (3/1)
Place:6High South (7/2)
Show:4Tramuntana (4/1)
Other contenders:3Forget About You (10/1), 2Rain Gold (8/1), 12Moonlight Dash (8/1), 10Maverick Queen (20/1), 7El Joury (15/1)
Rest of field:5Flower River (20/1), 1Forgotten About (20/1), 13Temple Goddess (20/1), 16Trusty Troutman (15/1), 15Now Or Nevermore (20/1), 14Lady Sybil (30/1), 11Risen Power (20/1), 9Power To Glory (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8642123
🎯 Longshots: 12863241610151113714159
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:6Harry Houdini (5/2)
Place:7Obra Prima (3/1)
Show:4King Lee (6/1)
Other contenders:1Consequential (4/1), 3Most Probable (8/1), 8Feeling Grand (6/1)
Rest of field:2Don't U Shush Me (10/1), 5Berniedott (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 671483
🎯 Longshots: 67318524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $89,000
Win:3Banned For Life (3/1)
Place:4Tarantino (5/2)
Show:5Track Phantom (7/2)
Other contenders:2Accretive (8/1), 6Can't Hush This (5/1), 1Charlie Foxtrot (12/1)
Rest of field:7Risk It (8/1), 8Zambezi (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345267
🎯 Longshots: 43127568
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:9Son Of A Birch (6/1)
Place:6Charge For Gold (15/1)
Show:2Demolition Duke (9/2)
Other contenders:4Sea Singer (4/1), 8Baltimore Heart (8/1), 10Out Of Deductions (5/1), 11Exact Estimate (8/1), 13Sugoi (15/1)
Rest of field:1Risk Manager (8/1), 3Skyro (10/1), 16The Minkster (20/1), 7Sambalover (30/1), 15Debt Paid (10/1), 12Real Fast (30/1), 14Woodcock Flight (30/1), 5Professor Higgins (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 42910811
🎯 Longshots: 86492111513311016712145
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#1 (67%) / R2: #3,#5 (66%) / R3: #10,#9,#3 (58%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#5 (66%) / R3: #10,#9,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#7 (64%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #10,#9,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#7 (64%) / R5: #6,#1 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#7 (64%) / R5: #6,#1 (66%) / R6: #6,#8,#4 (54%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#1 (67%) / R2: #3,#5 (66%) / R3: #10,#9,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#7 (64%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#5 (66%) / R3: #10,#9,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#7 (64%) / R5: #6,#1 (66%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACCRETIVEANGEL BELLAANTHONY THE GREATBALTIMORE HEARTBANNED FOR LIFE
BERNIEDOTTBOSSBOSTON TIMEBRIGHT SKITTLECAN'T HUSH THIS
CHARGE FOR GOLDCHARLIE FOXTROTCOLD DRAFT BEERCONSEQUENTIALDEBT PAID
DENISE SAYS NODON'T U SHUSH MEDRAIN THE BOURBONEL JOURYEXACT ESTIMATE
FLOWER RIVERFORGET ABOUT YOUFORGOTTEN ABOUTFULL DOLLYG ROCKS
GOT THE RINGHARRY HOUDINIHATHAWAYHELPFUL HOWIEHIGH SOUTH
JUSTIFIED GIFTKING LEELADY SYBILLEEDULEXICO
MAVERICK QUEENMOONLIGHT DASHMOST PROBABLEMUNNINGS MONETNOW OR NEVERMORE
ORAIAORDER RESTOREDOSCAR'S CANDYOUR VEKOMA RIDEOUT OF DEDUCTIONS
PROFESSOR HIGGINSQUINN'S PROMISEQUINTILLIONRAIN GOLDREAL FAST
RIDE THE BROOMRISEN POWERRISK ITRISK MANAGERROCKFEST
SEA SINGERSHARED VISIONSKYROSON OF A BIRCHSOULMAN
SUGOITARANTINOTEMPLE GODDESSTHE MINKSTERTRACK PHANTOM
TRUSTY TROUTMANTURNBACKUNLIMITEDWILL'S ALIWITH YOU
YOU'RE IN HEAVENZAMBEZI

 


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