Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Turf Paradise, November 19, 2025.

Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.

Race 1 – Maiden – 295Y Dirt

Win: 4. Heart On A Run (86%)
Place: 6. Famous In Lace (71%)
Show: 2. Cyber Finale (57%)
Alternative: 3. Cartels Most Wanted (43%)

Analysts favor the speed and recent form patterns in this short sprint. The top selection returns from a layoff but showed consistency in early career starts, finishing in the money in all three attempts. The runner-up choice also comes off an extended break but posted a competitive effort last out at this venue. The third selection demonstrated ability when fresh and could benefit from the abbreviated distance.

Race 2 – Optional Claiming – 295Y Dirt

Win: 2. Eye Am A Dream (86%)
Place: 4. Tailwynde (43%)
Show: 7. Kid Cocinero (29%)
Alternative: 8. Magical Chic (29%)

Strong consensus supports the top choice, who closed powerfully to score at this track and distance previously. Despite the lengthy absence, the winning effort suggests readiness for another strong performance. Multiple analysts note alternatives returning from layoffs, creating uncertainty in the minor placings. The distance favors natural speed, which several contenders possess.

Race 3 – Claiming – 1105Y Dirt

Win: 2. Hippie Trail (71%)
Place: 3. Recycleyourheart (86%)
Show: 6. I Have A Dream (57%)
Alternative: 1. Betty Ryano (14%)

Analysts identify this as essentially a two-horse race for the win. The top selection drops in class after recent efforts and owns a victory at this track and distance. The second choice returns from a brief layoff after finishing mid-pack in stronger company at Del Mar. The third selection faces similar class relief after a brief freshening period.

Race 4 – Maiden Optional Claiming – 1214Y Dirt

Win: 1. Kazamataz (86%)
Place: 5. American Blessing (71%)
Show: 4. Toni The Grrreat (43%)
Alternative: 2. My Bella For Lisa (29%)

Overwhelming support exists for the top two selections. The favorite returns from a layoff where she finished second despite being favored, suggesting readiness to break through. The runner-up pick also freshens up after showing competitiveness in Midwest racing. Class relief benefits several in this maiden claimer, creating value opportunities in the lower placings.

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F Turf

Win: 2. Saline River (100%)
Place: 3. One Fast Bro (71%)
Show: 1. Kennebec (57%)
Alternative: 4. Seventeen Black (29%)

Unanimous agreement supports the top selection, who seeks three consecutive victories after winning twice at Remington Park. The distance switch to turf adds intrigue, though connections have shown confidence in the surface change. The runner-up choice narrowly missed as a favorite last out and returns from a brief freshening. The third selection boasts excellent form at this venue and could threaten on the class drop.

Race 6 – Claiming – 1323Y Dirt

Win: 6. Strength Of Autism (71%)
Place: 7. Pharoahs List (57%)
Show: 3. Candy’s Wildcat (14%)
Alternative: 1. Buck Owens (29%)

The top choice owns four previous victories at this track and has placed in two of three recent starts, demonstrating reliable form at the venue. The second selection freshens up after a winning effort at Emerald Downs, facing a significant class test. One analyst favors an alternative with recent form improvement, creating a potential upset scenario in this competitive claimer.

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1323Y Dirt

Win: 4. Bubbles Up (14%)
Place: 7. Buzzworthy (29%)
Show: 3. Heartfull Of Joy (43%)
Alternative: 9. Maximum Sparkle (29%)

This race shows the widest variation in expert opinions, with no clear consensus favorite. Multiple fresh horses return from layoffs with winning form elsewhere, creating a contentious handicapping puzzle. Analysts note several contenders dropping from higher-level competition, suggesting class relief could be decisive. The third choice has placed twice this campaign at Los Alamitos and shows consistency.

Race 8 – Claiming – 8F Turf

Win: 3. Hot Legs Romolo (71%)
Place: 4. Mischievous Paddy (43%)
Show: 5. Vorpal (43%)
Alternative: 11. Five Twenty Sunset (14%)

Strong support exists for the top selection returning from a lengthy layoff, though the previous effort was well beaten. Analysts note the class drop could be significant. The runner-up choice also returns from a brief freshening after a poor showing, creating questions about current form. The third selection scored at long odds in a previous start at this venue, suggesting hidden ability in the right circumstances.


Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays

Race 1 Exacta Box: 4-6-2 provides the consensus top three at reasonable odds. Consider a straight exacta of 4 over 6,2,3 for better value.

Race 2 Value Play: With 2. Eye Am A Dream heavily favored, consider using 8. Magical Chic, 4. Tailwynde, and 7. Kid Cocinero underneath in exactas and trifectas for better payouts.

Race 3 Strategy: The two-horse race dynamic between 2. Hippie Trail and 3. Recycleyourheart suggests a tight exacta box. Add 6. I Have A Dream for trifecta coverage.

Race 4 Recommended: Straight exacta of 1. Kazamataz over 5. American Blessing, then box those two with 4. Toni The Grrreat for trifecta value.

Race 5 Best Bet: Single 2. Saline River in exactas over 3. One Fast Bro, 1. Kennebec, and 4. Seventeen Black. The unanimous support creates opportunity for solid exotic returns.

Race 6 Trifecta: Box 6. Strength Of Autism, 7. Pharoahs List, and 3. Candy’s Wildcat. Consider adding 1. Buck Owens for superfecta coverage given the competitive nature.

Race 7 Wide Open: The lack of consensus suggests playing multiple combinations. Box 4. Bubbles Up, 7. Buzzworthy, 3. Heartfull Of Joy, 9. Maximum Sparkle, and 1. Tianma in trifectas for maximum coverage.

Race 8 Exotic Strategy: Key 3. Hot Legs Romolo on top in exactas with 4. Mischievous Paddy, 5. Vorpal, and 11. Five Twenty Sunset. The class drops create uncertainty that could produce value in the exacta and trifecta pools.

Multi-Race Wager Strategy: Consider Pick 3 coverage beginning with Race 3 (2,3/1,5/2) and Race 5 (2/6,7/3,4,7). The stronger consensus races provide solid anchors for horizontal wagers.

Pick Pony analysts note that the short sprint distances in early races favor natural speed, while the turf races later in the card require careful attention to surface switches and layoff patterns. The maiden and claiming ranks throughout the card create uncertainty that smart bettors can exploit through disciplined exotic wagering strategies.​

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