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Del Mar racing returns on Monday after the track added an extra race day to compensate for Friday’s cancellation due to heavy rain. This makeup card features nine races with a balanced mix of turf and dirt contests. The current fall Bing Crosby meet has seen competitive racing with average field sizes trending higher than last year at 7.47 horses per race compared to 7.27.
The track has experienced significant weather challenges this November, with multiple cancellations marking only the third and fourth times in Del Mar’s 88-year history that racing has been suspended due to weather conditions. Despite the disruptions, racing officials have maintained optimal track conditions by adding the Monday card to allow surfaces adequate drying time while preserving turf racing opportunities.
Weather and Track Conditions
Monday’s weather forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions with patchy fog in the morning becoming mostly sunny. High temperatures will reach 65 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit with light winds becoming west at 10 mph in the afternoon. The evening will bring partly cloudy skies with lows of 49 to 52 degrees and light winds.
Track conditions should be optimal following several days of drying time after the recent storms. The turf rail is set at 24 feet for races 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9[User Query]. Recent reports indicate the turf course has been listed as firm, while the main track has been fast. The extra days off should provide ideal racing surfaces for both turf and dirt contests.
The weather pattern has stabilized after unseasonably wet conditions earlier this month that saw unprecedented rainfall for Southern California in November. Track superintendent Dennis Moore sealed the main track following recent cards to protect the surface during the storms.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Del Mar’s current fall meet has displayed a pronounced speed bias on the main track, particularly favoring horses with tactical speed breaking from inside posts. The dirt sprint statistics reveal speed horses winning 42 percent of races during recent meetings, with stalkers accounting for 45 percent and closers managing just 9 percent.
In dirt routes, front-runners have dominated with 56 percent of wins, while horses breaking from the three inside posts have won 55 percent of route races. The combination of early speed from inside posts has proven especially lethal, with inside speed horses alone winning 30 percent of Del Mar dirt routes.
The turf course plays more fairly overall, though distinct patterns emerge at different distances. In turf sprints at five furlongs, posts 1-2 have produced 21.2 percent of winners while posts 8-12 have failed to produce any winners from 94 starters in recent meets. At one mile on turf, the fairest distance for post positions, the track accommodates all running styles with reasonable equity.
For turf routes beyond one mile, outside posts become increasingly problematic. At 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles on turf, horses breaking from post seven and outward have won at significantly lower percentages. The pace dynamics on turf routes have favored both speed and closers depending on how the race sets up, with 42 percent won by pace horses and 35 percent by stalkers.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 12:30 PM
Five furlongs on turf for California-bred or California-sired two-year-old maidens represents the opening salvo of Monday’s card. The rail stands at 24 feet, and this competitive nine-horse field offers several intriguing angles.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup should be moderate with several horses showing early tactical speed. Eye of the Smiley finished second at this five-furlong turf distance last out at Del Mar, suggesting sufficient early speed to secure favorable position. The Max Factor makes his turf debut for Mark Glatt, who excels with juveniles. Carl Erskine represents the Jamey Thomas barn in his second career start. The short turf sprint distance leaves little margin for error, placing premium value on horses positioned within striking distance turning for home.
Key Contenders
Eye of the Smiley brings relevant experience for trainer Brian Koriner and jockey Diego Herrera. This California-bred colt by Smiling Tiger finished second at five furlongs on Del Mar turf in his most recent outing, beaten only by Wiki Kane. That effort demonstrated ability to handle the turf sprint distance, and the familiarity with the course provides an edge. The trainer-jockey combination has shown consistency with this horse through four career starts.
The Max Factor enters for powerhouse trainer Mark Glatt, who operates at a 13 percent win rate with 43 percent in-the-money finishes this meet. Though making his turf debut, this gelding by The Factor possesses the pedigree to handle grass. Glatt’s patient approach with juveniles typically produces improvement, and jockey Ricardo Gonzalez provides competent piloting. The morning line odds of 6-1 suggest the betting public respects the barn’s ability despite the surface switch.
Uecker represents trainer Ryan Hanson in what appears to be a debut for this gelding[User Query]. First-time starters require strong workouts and solid connections to compete effectively, and information on this runner’s preparation remains limited. The 8-1 morning line suggests some betting interest based on training patterns or workouts not readily available in public databases.
Secondary Choices
Carl Erskine makes his second career start for trainer Jamey Thomas with Tyler Baze aboard. First-time starters rarely win at Del Mar without exceptional ability, but second-timers who showed promise in their debuts often improve significantly. The change to turf from dirt could unlock improvement if the breeding suggests grass affinity. Baze brings experience and tactical awareness that helps navigate competitive maiden races.
Dr. Filkins ships in for trainer Sean McCarthy with Kyle Frey riding[User Query]. McCarthy operates a smaller stable but maintains solid percentages when properly spotted. The barn’s patience with developing horses could pay dividends if this gelding has been training forwardly.
Longshots
Debbies Gettinghot enters for trainer Debbie Winick at 10-1 odds[User Query]. This gelding has shown some ability in previous outings with two second-place finishes in five starts. The connections might find the right spot eventually, though this competitive field presents a stiff challenge.
Manx Missile debuts for trainer Edward Freeman. First-time starters face an uphill battle in maiden special weight company without exceptional work patterns. The 8-1 morning line suggests some market confidence, but debut winners remain the exception rather than the rule.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Structure exacta wagers using Eye of the Smiley on top with The Max Factor as the primary backup. The Glatt barn’s consistency warrants respect, and his second-choice status in the betting provides value. Include Carl Erskine and Uecker in trifecta combinations for coverage if either shows the improvement typical of second-time starters or debuts with proper preparation.
Consider straight exacta and exacta box wagers featuring Eye of the Smiley and The Max Factor as the most probable top-two finishers. Their combined class and connections separate them from the remainder of this field.
Selections
Win: Eye of the Smiley
Place: The Max Factor
Show: Carl Erskine
Race 2 – Claiming
Post Time: 1:00 PM
A 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old and older fillies and mares that have never won three races. The claiming price of $25,000 attracts a competitive five-horse field.
Pace Analysis
The pace should be honest with multiple fillies showing early speed tendencies. The compressed field of five runners suggests limited room for error and potential for traffic problems. Horses with tactical speed to secure favorable stalking positions will hold advantages in a race where every length counts. The speed-favoring Del Mar main track enhances the prospects of fillies positioned on or near the lead.
Key Contenders
Saint Mihiel hopped at the start and broke slowly last out but still finished fourth, beaten two lengths. The Army Mule filly now makes her first start off the claim for trainer Charles Treece with Tyler Baze aboard. Treece operates at 16 percent with newly claimed dirt sprinters according to recent statistics. The class relief from previous conditions combined with the trainer’s success pattern with new acquisitions makes her a formidable contender. Baze’s tactical skills help overcome difficult post positions and traffic scenarios that plague short fields.
Empress of Grace won her most recent start impressively at Del Mar on November 2. The Stay Thirsty filly rallied from off the pace to win a photo finish, demonstrating both determination and tactical speed. Trainer Steve Knapp operates at a solid clip this meet, and jockey Tiago Pereira has shown consistent ability. The winning form two starts back provides confidence this filly can compete at this level. Her ability to rate off the pace and finish gives her tactical versatility.
Secondary Choices
Petite Treat enters for trainer Mike Puype with Abel Lezcano riding[User Query]. Puype maintains a respectable stable and knows how to place horses for optimal success. This three-year-old filly has shown enough in previous races to factor if the pace sets up favorably for closers.
Strange Addiction, a five-year-old mare for trainer Bill McLean, brings experience and maturity[User Query]. Older mares in claiming races sometimes possess the savvy to navigate traffic and find racing room when younger fillies make mistakes. Jockey Armando Ayuso provides competent handling.
Longshots
Polythene Pam debuts for trainer Librado Barocio at 4-1 odds[User Query]. First-time starters in claiming races face difficult odds without exceptional breeding or work patterns suggesting immediate competitiveness.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The race sets up as a two-horse duel between Saint Mihiel and Empress of Grace. Box these two in the exacta for maximum return potential, as either could win depending on pace dynamics. Include Petite Treat and Strange Addiction in trifecta combinations for insurance against unexpected developments.
For vertical players, key Saint Mihiel and Empress of Grace in the rolling double to Race 3. Their class and current form separate them from the remainder of this field.
Selections
Win: Saint Mihiel
Place: Empress of Grace
Show: Strange Addiction
Race 3 – Claiming
Post Time: 1:30 PM
Five furlongs on turf for fillies and mares three years old and upward. This claiming event for $25,000 horses attracted nine runners with the rail at 24 feet.
Pace Analysis
Multiple fillies show early tactical speed, suggesting a solid but not suicidal early pace. The five-furlong turf sprint distance leaves minimal margin for error, rewarding horses positioned within striking distance. Del Mar’s turf sprint bias heavily favors inside posts, with posts 1-2 producing 21.2 percent of winners while posts 8-12 have failed to produce any winners from 94 starters in recent meets. Horses drawn outside face significant disadvantages unless possessing superior class.
Key Contenders
Shangrilama arrives in good form for trainer Steve Knapp with Kazushi Kimura aboard. This Irish-bred mare by Profitable has shown consistent ability and draws a favorable middle post. Knapp operates effectively this meet, and Kimura ranks among the top jockeys with three wins from 47 mounts. The combination of solid form, competent connections, and tactical speed makes her the controlling interest. The 5/2 morning line reflects appropriate respect from the betting public.
Cyprus Moon represents trainer George Papaprodromou and jockey Umberto Rispoli. This Malibu Moon filly possesses both class and tactical speed for the turf sprint distance. Rispoli ranks third in the jockey standings with seven victories and strong percentages. The Papaprodromou barn operates at five wins from limited opportunities, suggesting selective placement. Cyprus Moon’s closing style could benefit if pace pressure develops early, though the speed-favoring turf course profile creates challenges for deep closers.
Secondary Choices
Katerini draws post four for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Armando Aguilar. Miller historically dominates Del Mar but shows just one win from 20 starters this meet, representing a significant aberration from his career success at the track. His horses typically improve as meets progress, making any Miller runner dangerous despite current statistics. The seven-year-old mare brings experience and savvy that sometimes overcomes youth and speed.
Willow Cove enters for Mike Puype with Juan Hernandez riding. Hernandez represents the five-time defending Del Mar riding champion who operates slightly below typical dominant standards but remains dangerous on quality mounts. The connections warrant respect even without standout form indicators.
Longshots
Eltonsingsanother ships in for trainer Edwin Alvarez with Tyler Baze aboard. This I’ll Have Another mare has shown some ability in previous outings and could factor at a price if the pace collapses.
Needlepoint, the Irish-bred by Blue Point, brings international breeding for trainer Patrick Gallagher. European-breds sometimes need time to adapt to American dirt but can excel on turf. The 8-1 morning line suggests some betting interest based on breeding or hidden form.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Shangrilama merits single status in vertical wagers based on form, connections, and post position advantages. The inside posts dominate turf sprints at Del Mar with mathematical certainty, and her tactical speed fits the winning profile. Use her as a single in pick threes and rolling doubles while boxing her with Cyprus Moon in exactas for insurance.
For horizontal wagers, structure trifectas keying Shangrilama and Cyprus Moon over Katerini, Willow Cove, and Eltonsingsanother. The Miller barn’s historical success warrants including Katerini despite current struggles.
Selections
Win: Shangrilama
Place: Cyprus Moon
Show: Katerini
Race 4 – Claiming
Post Time: 2:00 PM
A 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old and older fillies and mares. This $20,000 claiming race attracted five runners.
Pace Analysis
The small field suggests limited pace pressure with room for horses to settle into positions. Emirates Affair appears likely to establish the lead or press the pace, while Miracle Ball shows tactical speed for stalking. The speed-favoring Del Mar dirt track rewards horses positioned on or near the lead, especially breaking from inside posts. Closers face difficult odds unless the pace becomes contentious.
Key Contenders
Emirates Affair, a seven-year-old mare by Handsome Mike, enters for trainer Robert Hess Jr. with Hector Berrios aboard. This veteran mare loves the 6 1/2-furlong distance and brings significant experience. Hess operates effectively at Del Mar, and Berrios ranks among the leading jockeys with six wins this meet. The combination of class, distance preference, and tactical speed from an inside post creates a formidable profile. The 7/5 morning line reflects appropriate favoritism.
Miracle Ball makes her second start for trainer Jesus Mendoza after showing ability in previous outings. This Competitive Edge filly possesses youth and improving form that sometimes overcomes class deficiencies in low-level claiming races. The 2-1 morning line suggests significant betting support, possibly based on recent workouts or hidden form indicators. Jockey Armando Ayuso provides competent handling.
Secondary Choices
Discrepancy has won two straight races by a combined 6 1/4 lengths for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. The Audible filly has benefited from two months recovery time while training steadily. Hollendorfer’s patient approach could produce another winning effort if she replicates recent form. Jockey Kazushi Kimura has shown consistency this meet with strong percentages.
Elegant Sway represents trainer Steve Knapp with Antonio Fresu aboard. Knapp operates multiple starters on this card with solid success rates, suggesting confidence in his stable’s current form. Fresu ranks second in the jockey standings with eight wins from 44 mounts and 56 percent in-the-money.
Longshots
Auditory debuts for trainer Antonio Flores with Edgar Payeras riding. This Audible filly makes her first start in the Flores barn after showing some ability in previous outings. The 6-1 morning line suggests modest expectations, though first-time claims sometimes produce improved efforts.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Emirates Affair merits win betting based on class, experience, and tactical advantages. Her love of the distance combined with Hess’s solid training and Berrios’s riding creates confidence. Box her with Miracle Ball in exactas to protect against the improving younger filly upsetting. Include Discrepancy in trifectas based on her winning streak and Hollendorfer’s patient approach.
For vertical players, key Emirates Affair in the pick four beginning this race. Her class edge and experience separate her from these rivals.
Selections
Win: Emirates Affair
Place: Miracle Ball
Show: Discrepancy
Race 5 – Starter Allowance
Post Time: 2:30 PM
One mile on turf for fillies and mares three years old and upward that have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and have never won three races. This competitive eight-horse field features the rail at 24 feet.
Pace Analysis
The mile distance on turf allows horses time to establish positions and make sustained rallies. Several fillies show tactical speed while others profile as closers who benefit from pace pressure. The moderate expected fractions should favor horses with either tactical speed to secure favorable stalking positions or strong closing kicks capable of sustained rallies. Del Mar’s turf routes reward both stalkers and closers at this distance depending on pace dynamics.
Key Contenders
Willa T enters for trainer Tim Yakteen with Antonio Fresu riding. This four-year-old filly has shown consistent ability and draws the outside post eight, which poses challenges but allows freedom from traffic. Yakteen operates a quality stable, and Fresu ranks second in the jockey standings with elite percentages. The combination of solid form, top connections, and improving class creates a formidable profile. The 5/2 morning line reflects appropriate favoritism.
No Other Like You represents the powerful Doug O’Neill barn with Mirco Demuro aboard. O’Neill ranks third in trainer standings with five wins this meet, and his success with fillies stretching out on turf creates confidence. Demuro leads the jockey standings with 10 wins from just 22 mounts, an extraordinary 45 percent win rate. The Italian rider’s success at Del Mar this fall represents one of the meet’s major storylines. Recent victory on November 9 demonstrated this filly’s ability at Del Mar.
Secondary Choices
Upcharge ships in for trainer Philip D’Amato with Kazushi Kimura riding. D’Amato ranks seventh in trainer standings with three wins and operates at 12 percent. The barn’s turf expertise and Kimura’s consistency create a logical secondary choice. D’Amato’s horses typically excel on grass, and his success at Santa Anita’s recent meet suggests the stable hits peak form heading into late fall.
How Lovely represents another O’Neill starter with Juan Hernandez aboard. O’Neill doubling up suggests confidence in both fillies, and Hernandez’s championship pedigree at Del Mar creates respect despite riding below typical dominance this meet. The five-time defending champion knows Del Mar’s nuances better than any active rider.
Longshots
O K Rose enters for trainer Peter Eurton with Armando Ayuso riding. Eurton operates a quality stable, and Ayuso shows consistent ability. The 6-1 morning line suggests some betting support based on form or workouts.
Crossanna represents trainer Ronald Ellis with Kyle Frey aboard. Ellis maintains a respectable operation, and Frey brings experience to navigate the competitive turf route.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The O’Neill barn’s double entry creates uncertainty about which filly receives the stronger ride. Demuro’s elite riding and No Other Like You’s recent Del Mar victory tilt preferences toward that filly, though How Lovely with Hernandez demands respect. Structure exacta wheels using Willa T, No Other Like You, and Upcharge interchangeably on top and bottom for maximum coverage.
For vertical players, spread tickets using all three top contenders as Willa T’s favoritism might not reflect actual winning probability given the O’Neill-Demuro combination’s current form.
Selections
Win: No Other Like You
Place: Willa T
Show: Upcharge
Race 6 – Claiming
Post Time: 3:00 PM
One mile on dirt for three-year-old and older fillies and mares. This bottom-level $8,000 claiming race attracted eight runners.
Pace Analysis
Limited speed in this field suggests moderate early fractions with opportunities for closers to rally. The dirt mile distance provides ample time for horses to establish positions and make sustained runs. Del Mar’s dirt route bias favors front-runners, though at this claiming level class often trumps position. Horses with tactical speed to avoid traffic problems while maintaining striking position hold advantages.
Key Contenders
Based on available information, this low-level claiming race features fillies and mares with limited recent form and success. Theresasilverlinin and Violet Storm both represent trainer Steve Knapp, suggesting the barn expects one to perform well[User Query]. Knapp’s success this meet with multiple starters creates confidence in his stable’s current condition.
Lady Monclaire enters for trainer Richard Baltas with Diego Herrera aboard[User Query]. Baltas operates a quality stable and knows how to win at Del Mar despite limited opportunities this meet. Herrera provides competent riding and knows Del Mar’s dirt mile well.
Secondary Choices
Act of Serendipity represents trainer Genaro Vallejo with Mirco Demuro riding[User Query]. Demuro’s elite riding makes any mount dangerous regardless of class level. His 45 percent win rate this meet suggests he extracts maximum performance from every horse.
Unbridled Scholar ships in for trainer Blaine Wright with Kyle Frey aboard[User Query]. Wright operates a smaller stable but maintains solid percentages when properly spotted.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Low-level claiming races on dirt present challenging handicapping scenarios where form often proves unreliable. Focus on connections and jockey skill rather than past performances. Demuro’s presence on Act of Serendipity creates value despite unknown class indicators. Structure small exacta boxes using the Knapp pair and Demuro’s mount for coverage.
For vertical players, spread tickets widely or skip this race entirely as unpredictability makes confident selections nearly impossible.
Selections
Win: Act of Serendipity
Place: Lady Monclaire
Show: Violet Storm
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time: 3:30 PM
The feature race runs 1 3/8 miles on turf for fillies and mares three years old and upward. This competitive nine-horse field offers excellent betting opportunities with the rail at 24 feet.
Pace Analysis
The marathon distance allows patient riders to settle horses and make sustained rallies. Several fillies show closing tendencies that benefit from any pace pressure up front. Time Song figures to show early speed and could establish the lead without much pressure given the route distance. Night Out and Crazy Cavalier profile as closers who benefit from pace pressure. The moderate expected fractions should favor horses with tactical speed or strong closing kicks, as Del Mar’s turf routes reward both stalkers and closers at this distance.
Key Contenders
Thebestisyettobe, the Irish-bred mare for trainer Philip D’Amato, enters with strong recent form and tactical advantages. This Siyouni filly finished second at 1 3/8 miles on Del Mar turf in August, demonstrating both stamina and class. D’Amato ranks seventh in trainer standings with solid percentages, and his turf expertise creates confidence. Jockey Umberto Rispoli ranks third in standings with seven wins and elite percentages. The 5/2 morning line reflects appropriate favoritism.
Starts Now represents trainer Richard Baltas with Mirco Demuro aboard. Baltas operates a quality stable, and Demuro’s elite riding makes any mount dangerous. The combination won together recently, and Demuro’s 45 percent win rate this meet suggests he elevates every horse’s performance. This New York-bred mare brings solid form and closing ability that fits the race shape.
Angelic Appeal enters as D’Amato’s second runner with Antonio Fresu riding. The Irish-bred by Siyouni represents quality breeding and connections. D’Amato doubling up suggests confidence in both fillies, though Rispoli’s presence on Thebestisyettobe indicates barn preference. Fresu’s elite riding and consistency make this a logical secondary choice.
Secondary Choices
Little Hidden Port ships from Argentina for Hall of Fame trainer John Sadler with Kazushi Kimura aboard. Sadler ranks tied for first in trainer standings with five wins this meet, and his international runners often excel on turf. The Argentine breeding and Sadler’s patient approach create intrigue despite limited recent form indicators.
Ima Joker represents Doug O’Neill with Hector Berrios riding. O’Neill ranks third in trainer standings, and Berrios brings elite riding skills. The barn’s success this meet warrants respect.
Longshots
Sakura Blossom enters for trainer Leonard Powell with Tiago Pereira aboard. Powell ranks ninth in trainer standings with solid percentages. The drop from non-winners of two allowances to the optional claiming level creates class relief that sometimes produces improved efforts.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Thebestisyettobe merits win betting based on D’Amato’s turf expertise, Rispoli’s elite riding, and proven stamina at the distance. The barn’s preference shown through jockey selection creates confidence. Box her with Starts Now in exactas to protect against Demuro’s magic touch upsetting. Include Angelic Appeal and Little Hidden Port in trifectas for coverage of D’Amato’s second runner and Sadler’s international shipper.
For vertical players, key Thebestisyettobe in the late pick three and rolling exotics. Her class edge and distance preference separate her from these rivals.
Selections
Win: Thebestisyettobe
Place: Starts Now
Show: Angelic Appeal
Race 8 – Claiming
Post Time: 4:00 PM
Six furlongs on dirt for three-year-old and older males that have never won three races. This $25,000 claiming sprint attracted six runners.
Pace Analysis
Captain Sparrow figures to show early speed and could establish the lead or press the pace. The six-furlong distance and small field suggest room for horses to establish positions without excessive pressure. Del Mar’s dirt sprint bias heavily favors speed and stalkers, with closers facing difficult odds. Horses with tactical speed to secure favorable positions hold significant advantages.
Key Contenders
Captain Sparrow returns from a layoff for trainer Mark Glatt with Antonio Fresu aboard. Glatt freshened this gelding after a poor effort in late August, and the class drop to $25,000 claiming creates relief. Two starts back, Captain Sparrow won impressively by 5 1/4 lengths with a strong 91 Beyer figure. Glatt operates at 13 percent with solid in-the-money percentages this meet, and his patient approach with layoff horses produces results. Fresu ranks second in jockey standings with elite statistics. The 2-1 morning line reflects appropriate favoritism.
Hawker represents trainer George Papaprodromou with Umberto Rispoli riding. This gelding has raced almost exclusively on turf throughout his career but can handle dirt based on four previous main track tries. Papaprodromou operates at five wins from limited opportunities, suggesting selective placement. Rispoli’s elite riding and tactical awareness help navigate competitive claiming sprints. The surface switch creates uncertainty but also value if the breeding suggests dirt capability.
Secondary Choices
Hard to Figure returns to dirt for trainer Ronald Ellis with Armando Ayuso aboard. This gelding prefers the main track based on recent form and won decisively three starts back with an 89 Beyer. The speed and fade over turf last out suggested a return to dirt would benefit. Ellis operates a respectable stable, and Ayuso provides competent handling.
Stolen Treasure enters for trainer Edward Freeman with William Antongeorgi III riding[User Query]. Limited information suggests this colt faces a challenging spot without standout form indicators.
Longshots
Tequila Talkin ships in for trainer Jorge Farias with Tiago Pereira aboard[User Query]. This four-year-old colt has shown minimal recent success and faces a competitive field.
Mystic Flyer represents trainer Librado Barocio with Kyle Frey riding[User Query]. This five-year-old gelding needs significant improvement to compete at this level.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Captain Sparrow merits win betting based on Glatt’s patient approach, class relief, and strong two-back performance. His layoff combined with the trainer’s success pattern creates confidence. Box him with Hawker in exactas to protect against the Rispoli factor and potential for the dirt switch unlocking improvement. Include Hard to Figure in trifectas based on his dirt preference and strong three-back effort.
For vertical players, key Captain Sparrow in the rolling double to Race 9 and late pick three. His class edge separates him from these claiming rivals.
Selections
Win: Captain Sparrow
Place: Hawker
Show: Hard to Figure
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time: 4:30 PM
The finale runs one mile on turf for fillies and mares three years old and upward. This wide-open 14-horse field creates excellent betting opportunities with the rail at 24 feet.
Pace Analysis
The large field suggests competitive early fractions with multiple fillies showing tactical speed. The one-mile turf distance plays fairly for all post positions based on Del Mar statistics, though inside posts still maintain slight advantages. Several fillies profile as closers who benefit from pace pressure while others show tactical speed for stalking positions. The competitive nature creates opportunities for both speed and closing types depending on how the race develops.
Key Contenders
Defiance represents Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella with Mirco Demuro aboard. Mandella operates at 17 percent with 50 percent in-the-money from 12 starters this meet. His patient approach and relationship with Demuro creates dangerous combinations. Demuro leads the jockey standings with a remarkable 45 percent win rate. This filly finished fourth by half a length in an allowance race at 1 1/16 miles on turf in her last two-turn attempt. The class and connections create confidence despite questions about the mile distance. The 7/2 morning line suggests appropriate respect.
Ambaya finished second last out over course and distance, demonstrating both ability and familiarity with the conditions. This filly appears well-placed to improve based on recent form and tactical advantages. The Jonathan Thomas barn operates effectively when properly spotted. The 5/2 morning line reflects favoritism, though the large field creates uncertainty.
Source represents trainer Michael McCarthy with Kazushi Kimura riding. This GB-bred filly by Kingman brings international breeding and McCarthy’s training expertise. McCarthy operates a quality stable and knows how to win at Del Mar. Kimura’s consistency makes any mount dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Eternal Reign, the Irish-bred for Philip D’Amato, finished third behind Thebestisyettobe in the August turf route. D’Amato’s turf expertise and the filly’s proven ability at Del Mar create intrigue. The class and connections warrant respect despite the competitive field.
Miss Artois represents Richard Baltas with Tiago Pereira aboard. Baltas operates a quality stable, and Pereira shows consistent ability. The 12-1 morning line suggests some value if the pace sets up favorably.
She’s a Joker enters for trainer Peter Miller with Geovanni Franco riding. Miller’s historical Del Mar dominance warrants respect despite current meet struggles. His horses typically improve as meets progress.
Longshots
The Mizen Queen ships from Ireland for trainer Dan Blacker with Hector Berrios aboard. International shippers sometimes need time to adapt but can produce upsets based on superior European form.
Tequilaandtherapy represents Doug O’Neill with Armando Ayuso riding. O’Neill ranks third in trainer standings with solid success rates.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The 14-horse field creates challenging handicapping but excellent value opportunities. Defiance merits serious consideration based on Mandella’s expertise and Demuro’s elite riding. The combination ranks among Del Mar’s most successful partnerships. Box Defiance with Ambaya in exactas to cover both the class angle and recent course-and-distance form. Include Source and Eternal Reign in trifectas for coverage of McCarthy’s quality and D’Amato’s turf prowess.
For vertical players completing late pick threes, spread tickets using Defiance, Ambaya, and Source interchangeably. The large field and competitive nature suggest multiple horses hold legitimate winning chances.
Selections
Win: Defiance
Place: Ambaya
Show: Source
Jockey Notes and Insights
Mirco Demuro leads the Del Mar fall meet jockey standings with a remarkable 10 wins from just 22 mounts, representing a 45 percent win rate that far exceeds typical elite rider percentages. The 46-year-old Italian rider left Japan earlier this year to compete in Southern California and struggled initially at Santa Anita with just seven wins. His transformation at Del Mar represents one of the meet’s major storylines. Demuro served notice on opening day of the Bing Crosby Season with three victories including the Let It Ride Stakes aboard Tempus Volat. His partnership with Richard Mandella has produced consistent success, and trainers increasingly seek his services based on results.
Antonio Fresu ranks second in the jockey standings with eight wins from 44 mounts, an 18 percent win rate with 56 percent in-the-money finishes. The Italian rider’s consistency makes him a dependable choice across various race types, and his connection with Peter Miller’s barn provides regular opportunities on quality horses.
Umberto Rispoli holds third place with seven victories from 43 mounts, maintaining a 19 percent win rate and 51 percent in-the-money percentage. His experience at Del Mar and strong relationships with multiple barns keep him competitive throughout the meet. The partnership with Philip D’Amato has produced recent success and creates confidence when the pair teams up.
Hector Berrios ranks fourth with six wins this meet. His success includes three stakes victories, demonstrating ability at the highest levels. Berrios rode Super Corredora to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, earning $1,708,740 to lead local riders in earnings.
Juan Hernandez, the five-time defending Del Mar riding champion, operates slightly below typical dominant standards but remains dangerous on quality mounts. His connections with Bob Baffert and other top barns ensure he receives premium opportunities despite the meet’s competitive jockey colony. Hernandez wins at a 26 percent clip with 54 percent in-the-money through 671 starts in 2025. His knowledge of Del Mar’s nuances exceeds any active rider, and his tactical skills help overcome difficult post positions and pace scenarios.
Tyler Baze maintains solid statistics with two wins from 26 mounts this meet. His experience and tactical awareness help navigate competitive races, particularly in maiden and claiming events where positioning determines outcomes.
Kazushi Kimura shows three wins from 47 mounts with consistent in-the-money finishes. His partnerships with quality trainers provide regular opportunities on competitive horses.
Trainer Notes and Insights
John Sadler, George Papaprodromou, and Doug O’Neill lead the trainers’ race with five wins each. Sadler’s patient approach and success with international runners creates dangerous combinations, particularly on turf. His partnership with Hector Berrios produces consistent results at the highest levels.
Philip D’Amato ranks seventh with three wins from 26 starters, operating at 12 percent with 23 percent in-the-money. The two-time Del Mar leading trainer (2022-2023) didn’t wear the crown in 2024 but resurged at Santa Anita’s recent meet. He clinched the Santa Anita autumn season title with 13 victories, his eighth title at a Santa Anita meet since 2016 and first in a fall season. D’Amato’s turf expertise and relationships with elite riders create formidable combinations. His barn typically gears up for the second half of the year when bigger races lead into the Breeders’ Cup.
Richard Baltas operates a quality stable with consistent success at Del Mar. His partnership with Mirco Demuro has produced recent victories, and his patient approach with developing fillies creates late-meet improvements.
Mark Glatt operates at 13 percent with 43 percent in-the-money from 23 starters this meet. His patient approach with layoff horses and success with juveniles creates confidence when properly spotted.
Peter Miller, historically one of Del Mar’s most successful trainers, shows just one win from 20 starters this meet at 5 percent. This represents a significant aberration from his career success at the track. Miller’s horses typically improve as meets progress, making his runners worth consideration despite current statistics. His partnerships with Umberto Rispoli and Antonio Fresu have produced championships in previous years.
Richard Mandella operates at 17 percent with 50 percent in-the-money from 12 starters. His patient approach and relationship with Mirco Demuro creates dangerous combinations. Mandella’s reputation for peaking horses at target races makes his runners dangerous in stakes company.
Jeff Mullins ranks eighth with three wins from 14 starters, operating at 21 percent with 50 percent in-the-money. His success rate suggests selective placement and quality stock.
Steve Knapp operates multiple starters across today’s card with solid success rates. His consistency with claiming fillies and mares creates confidence in his stable’s current form.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The speed-favoring bias at Del Mar creates clear wagering implications throughout Monday’s card. Horses with early tactical speed drawn inside deserve extra consideration in all horizontal wagers, particularly in dirt sprints and routes where inside posts dominated recent statistics. In Race 2 and Race 4, the claiming sprints for fillies on dirt, inside speed provides mathematical advantages that warrant aggressive betting.
In turf sprints, the post position bias becomes extreme with posts 1-2 producing 21.2 percent of winners while posts 8-12 failed to produce any winners from 94 starters in recent meets. Race 1 and Race 3 offer opportunities to exploit this bias, particularly with Shangrilama in Race 3 drawing a favorable post with tactical speed and elite connections. The combination of inside post, speed, and quality jockey-trainer partnership creates maximum edge.
The Demuro factor demands attention throughout the card. His 45 percent win rate exceeds normal elite rider percentages by such margins that his presence alone creates value, particularly when odds drift above 3-1. In Race 6 with Act of Serendipity and Race 9 with Defiance, Demuro’s mounts deserve serious consideration regardless of class indicators. The Italian rider’s transformation at Del Mar represents legitimate form rather than variance.
For vertical players, structure late pick threes and pick fours using singles in races where class separates clearly from the field. Race 3 with Shangrilama, Race 4 with Emirates Affair, and Race 7 with Thebestisyettobe offer opportunities for single plays based on tactical advantages, connections, and current form. Spread tickets in the competitive maiden race (Race 1) and the wide-open finale (Race 9) where large fields create uncertainty.
The O’Neill-Demuro combination in Race 5 deserves special attention. Doug O’Neill ranks third in trainer standings with five wins this meet, and his recent success combines with Demuro’s elite riding to create a formidable partnership. No Other Like You’s recent Del Mar victory demonstrates both ability and course familiarity that warrants aggressive betting despite the presence of other quality fillies.
Rolling doubles and pick threes provide better value than traditional win betting on competitive days with balanced cards. Focus on races where class and connections separate clearly (Races 3, 4, 7, 8) for anchors while spreading in competitive spots (Races 1, 5, 6, 9). The speed bias creates exploitable patterns that sophisticated players can leverage across multiple race types and distances.
Consider cold exacta and trifecta plays in Race 3 (Shangrilama-Cyprus Moon) and Race 7 (Thebestisyettobe-Starts Now) where the top two selections possess significantly superior credentials to the remainder of their fields. These horizontal exotic plays offer better returns than traditional win wagering when favorites warrant strong conviction based on quantifiable advantages.
For recreational players, focus on races with clear class separations and avoid bottom-level claiming events (Race 6) where form proves unreliable and outcomes random. The feature race (Race 7) offers the best combination of class, distance, and competitive balance for entertaining action with reasonable handicapping success probability.
