Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 1105Y – Dirt
Win: #2 Sapello Gusto (86% confidence)
Place: #6 M L’s Sportscaster (43% confidence)🥉
Show: #7 Shiny Shores (57% confidence)
Alternative: #8 Private Equity (29% confidence)🥈
Notes: Multiple analysts favor Sapello Gusto based on a strong third-place finish at only start. M L’s Sportscaster draws significant support as a first-time starter with strong market backing. Exit Strategy also debuts and could surprise. Shiny Shores placed second when first up at this distance and looks threatening.
Race 2 – Claiming – 1105Y – Dirt
Win: #6 Brazen Now (100% confidence)Place: #1 Lonzo Who (71% confidence)Show: #3 Sheza Hailstorm (43% confidence)🥈
Alternative: #7 Z Marks The Spot (43% confidence)🥇
Notes: Brazen Now receives unanimous support after winning last two starts and making ground late to win fresh-up after 35-week break. Lonzo Who benefits from seven-day back-up and ideal draw. Sheza Hailstorm returns after 27 weeks off the bench with back-to-back wins. Z Marks The Spot has decent form with two wins from ten runs last prep.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1105Y – Dirt WIN
Win: #3 F S Liberty Belle (100% confidence)🥇
Place: #2 Dragonessa (43% confidence)
Show: #8 Reswift (43% confidence)
Alternative: #7 Baby Sisters Dream (29% confidence)
Notes: Thin form race with limited data. F S Liberty Belle placed second when fresh and should improve. Dragonessa placed at long odds last start and should run fitter. Reswift has two placings from four runs this prep after let-up. Several first-starters add uncertainty to the outcome.
Race 4 – Peppers Pride New Mexico Classic Stakes – 8F – Dirt – $200,000 WIN + TRIFECTA
Win: #2 Corrina Corrina (71% confidence)🥇
Place: #6 Matilda’s Mark (100% confidence)🥈
Show: #5 Honky Tonk Honey (71% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #3 Comforts Jazel (29% confidence)
Notes: Corrina Corrina bolted in when resuming and suits the distance range. Matilda’s Mark broke maiden last start when fresh and has won at the track before. Split opinion on top selection between these two fillies. Honky Tonk Honey resumes after 35 weeks and finished midfield last start.
Race 5 – Rocky Gulch New Mexico Classic Stakes – 8F 110Y – Dirt – $200,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #4 Let Him Be (100% confidence)🥈
Place: #1 Antonios Mark (71% confidence)🥇
Show: #6 Marking Canyon (71% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Sapello Riddler (29% confidence)
Notes: Let Him Be dominates analyst opinion after winning fresh-up and posting strong track record with four wins at Zia Park. Marking Canyon returns after 29 weeks with very strong form at this track. Antonios Mark also back after spell with solid form. Hard to see top selection being beaten.
Race 6 – New Mexico Classic Distaff Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – $150,000 WIN
Win: #3 First Again (100% confidence)🥇
Place: #4 Queen Hadassah (43% confidence)
Show: #6 Run Away Bay (29% confidence)
Alternative: #1 Right For You (57% confidence)🥈
Notes: Close race between top two selections. First Again won last start when fresh and has track experience. Queen Hadassah placed when resuming and has placed twice at track before. Mark It Down returns after 43-week layoff. Right For You placed at long odds when fresh.
Race 7 – New Mexico Classic Lassie Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – $150,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: #2 Mark’s Sassy Girl (71% confidence)🥈
Place: #6 Country Club Crush (71% confidence)🥇
Show: #7 Caprock Cutie (29% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #3 Who Said It’s Easy (14% confidence)
Notes: Limited exposed form makes this difficult to handicap. Country Club Crush won at only start here and has track win before. Mark’s Sassy Girl draws support as first starter with strong connections. Caprock Cutie also won at only start at this venue. Several debutants add intrigue.
Race 8 – New Mexico Classic Juvenile Stakes – 1323Y – Dirt – $150,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #9 Speed Merchant (57% confidence)🥈
Place: #2 Bully Boy (71% confidence)🥇
Show: #4 Fort Sumner (57% confidence)
Alternative: #6 Buy Local (43% confidence)🥉
Notes: Guessing game with limited data on juveniles. Speed Merchant has won all three starts including stakes last time and looks hard to beat. Bully Boy finished close second in same stakes race. Buy Local and Fort Sumner both won on debut at Zia Park. Several first-time starters make this challenging.
Race 9 – New Mexico Classic Oaks – 1433Y – Dirt – $150,000
Win: #6 Thatsaterriblidea (29% confidence)🥉
Place: #3 Souped Up Wildcat (43% confidence)🥈
Show: #7 Marksalot (57% confidence)
Alternative: #4 Shez Punctual (57% confidence)
Notes: Stand-out race with quality fillies. Mo Money Time built impressive allowance win last time. Marked Kiss has strong form credentials. Shez Punctual remains unbeaten and warrants respect. Thatsaterriblidea on seven-day back-up after running fourth fresh. Multiple contenders make this competitive.
Race 10 – New Mexico Classic Derby – 1433Y – Dirt – $150,000
Win: #6 Holy Hank (71% confidence)🥈
Place: #4 Short Round Bound (29% confidence)
Show: #1 American Ranger Bb (57% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Mojica (43% confidence)🥇
Notes: Holy Hank has best form after winning stronger race last time and receives strong support. Short Round Bound won fresh-up at this track and has solid favorite record. American Ranger Bb broke maiden last start when fresh. Mojica provides value alternative. Several horses returning from spell add variables.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Pick Pony analysts have identified the following exotic wagering opportunities based on consensus analysis and race characteristics:
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight
Consider exacta box with Sapello Gusto and M L’s Sportscaster as the clear top two selections. Trifecta keying those two over Shiny Shores and Exit Strategy offers value. Private Equity provides live longshot option for superfectas.
Race 2 – Claiming
Strong consensus on Brazen Now makes him ideal exacta and trifecta key horse. Exacta 6/1 provides solid betting opportunity. Consider trifecta 6 with 1,3,7 for coverage. Daily double from Race 1 linking Sapello Gusto to Brazen Now has strong potential.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight
Thin form creates value opportunities. Box F S Liberty Belle, Dragonessa, and Reswift in exacta for reasonable coverage. Consider small trifecta wheel using F S Liberty Belle on top. First-time starters add upset potential for superfecta longshot opportunities.
Race 4 – Peppers Pride New Mexico Classic Stakes
Two-horse race dynamic makes exacta 2/6 and 6/2 primary plays. Consider small trifecta box with Corrina Corrina, Matilda’s Mark, and Honky Tonk Honey. Pick 3 beginning this race through Race 6 offers value with strong favorites.
Race 5 – Rocky Gulch New Mexico Classic Stakes
Let Him Be strong win play and excellent single in multi-race wagers. Consider exacta wheel 4 with 1,6 as key horses underneath. Trifecta 4 over 1,6 over all provides solid coverage. Use as anchor in pick 3 and pick 4 sequences.
Race 6 – New Mexico Classic Distaff Stakes
Close race creates value in exacta box with First Again and Queen Hadassah. Consider trifecta 3,4 with 1,6,7 for coverage. Run Away Bay offers live upset potential. Daily double from Race 5 using Let Him Be to First Again or Queen Hadassah recommended.
Race 7 – New Mexico Classic Lassie Stakes
Limited form makes this ideal for small exacta and trifecta boxes. Box Mark’s Sassy Girl and Country Club Crush in exacta. Add Caprock Cutie and Who Said It’s Easy for trifecta box. Superfecta including longshots offers potential value.
Race 8 – New Mexico Classic Juvenile Stakes
Speed Merchant and Bully Boy create strong exacta opportunity. Consider exacta box 2,9 as core play. Trifecta 9,2 with 4,6 underneath provides coverage. Use Speed Merchant as single in pick 3 and pick 4 wagers through late stakes races.
Race 9 – New Mexico Classic Oaks
Most competitive race with multiple contenders. Consider exacta box including Mo Money Time, Marked Kiss, and Shez Punctual. Trifecta wheels using these three over remaining field offers value. Pick 3 from Race 8 through 10 using multiple horses in this race recommended.
Race 10 – New Mexico Classic Derby
Holy Hank strong win play and excellent closer for pick sequences. Exacta box 6,1 provides solid value. Consider trifecta 6 with 1,4,5 for coverage. Pick 4 from Race 7 through 10 using Holy Hank as anchor in finale recommended.
