Mountaineer – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 25, 2025

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Mountaineer Casino Racetrack and Resort presents an eight-race card on Tuesday evening, November 25, 2025, with first post scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. The program features a diverse mix of claiming races, a maiden claiming event, a starter optional claiming sprint, and an allowance optional claiming race for West Virginia-breds as the featured contest in Race 7. The card offers competitive action across various class levels, from bottom-level $4,000 claiming races to the $20,000 allowance optional claiming feature.​

The evening program spans distances from 4 1/2 furlongs to one mile, with most races run at 5 1/2 furlongs on the main dirt track. Purses range from $8,000 to $20,000, providing solid wagering opportunities throughout the evening. Notable scratches on the watch list include Appealing Road and Can I Get Awitness in Race 1, Starship Legacy and Riley’s Got Trix in Race 2, and several others across the card that bettors should monitor closely before wagering.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Weather conditions for Tuesday evening at Mountaineer show rain moving through the Chester, West Virginia area throughout the day. The forecast indicates cloudy conditions with periods of rain, temperatures around 56-57°F during racing hours, cooling to approximately 53-54°F by evening. Winds are expected from the south at 5 to 10 mph with humidity around 88%. The chance of rain is significant at 60-100% during the afternoon and early evening hours, which could impact track conditions.​

The main track condition was reported as fast earlier in the day, though the expected precipitation may cause the surface to be upgraded to sloppy or muddy by post time. Mountaineer’s sealed dirt surface historically provides consistent footing, but the rain could significantly alter pace scenarios and favor certain running styles over others. Bettors should check updated track conditions closer to post time.​

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Mountaineer has historically been a speed-dominant track, with early speed horses enjoying a distinct advantage. The current meet track bias data shows the following patterns:​

At 5.5 furlongs on dirt, early speed (E) is the best running style with 35% wire-to-wire winners, and middle to outside posts perform best. At 6 furlongs on dirt, early speed to pressing (E/P) styles prevail with 30% wire-to-wire winners and rail posts performing best. At one mile on dirt, early speed dominates with 26% wire-to-wire winners and outside posts showing an advantage.

For the current week, the bias has shifted slightly, with middle posts performing best at 5.5 furlongs and outside posts favored at 6 furlongs. A pronounced path bias toward the inside stretch lanes has been documented, with many wide-closing attempts flattening out despite appearing poised to win. Wide closers without a clear trip are at a particular disadvantage at this venue.​


Race 1 – Claiming $4,000 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

7:00 PM ET – Purse $9,000

Pace Analysis

This field features several horses with early speed tendencies, setting up for potentially contested early fractions. Third Tuesday from the Silva barn has shown pressing speed in recent efforts and figures to be forward from post 7. Boccabella and Mygirlisabomb also possess tactical speed that could create an honest pace scenario. If the pace gets hot early, stalkers and closers could benefit in the stretch run.

Key Contenders

Third Tuesday (PP7) enters as the morning line favorite at 5/2 for trainer Juan Pablo Silva and jockey Luis Negron. The four-year-old filly by Lucky Pulpit has been racing consistently at Mountaineer and gets the potent Silva/Negron combination that has proven highly effective at this meet. The outside post 7 is not ideal given Mountaineer’s inside bias, but her tactical speed should allow her to secure position early.​

Sky Divine (PP8) draws attention as a first-pick selection by handicappers despite the outside post. The four-year-old filly carries just 116 pounds with the apprentice weight allowance for jockey Michael Pagan and trains for Julie Mathes, who has been effective at Mountaineer this season. Her light impost could prove advantageous in the stretch.​

Secondary Choices

Can I Get Awitness (PP4) is listed on the scratch watch but would be a major player if she runs. The three-year-old by Catholic Boy draws well from the middle gate and gets leading rider Deshawn Parker for trainer Ronney Brown.​

Mygirlisabomb (PP6) trains for veteran Eddie Clouston, who recently surpassed 2,000 career victories and has won four Mountaineer training titles. Joe Stokes rides the Clouston trainee who has shown competitive efforts at this level.​

Boccabella (PP1) has the rail advantage in a speed-favoring track bias and could benefit from inside position if she shows enough early foot to stay close. Maikol Vilchez rides for trainer William Witherow.​

Longshots

Loop of Henle (PP3) is identified as a value selection at 8-1 morning line odds. The three-year-old by Gunnevera ships from Florida breeding and steps into this claiming event for trainer Shane Meyers with Erik Barbaran aboard.​

Appealing Road (PP5) appears on the scratch watch list and should be monitored. If she runs, the West Virginia-bred would offer significant value.​

Selections

Win: Third Tuesday
Place: Sky Divine
Show: Mygirlisabomb


Race 2 – Maiden Claiming $4,000 – 1 Mile Dirt

Post Time

7:25 PM ET – Purse $8,000

Pace Analysis

The one-mile maiden claiming event projects to have a moderate to slow early pace. Few of these maidens have shown significant early speed, which could favor horses that can establish position early without expenditure. This Is Gloria has shown forward placement in previous efforts and could control the tempo from mid-pack.

Key Contenders

This Is Gloria (PP9) is the consensus top selection among handicappers at 7/2 morning line odds. The three-year-old filly trains for Julie Mathes and gets the leading rider Deshawn Parker. She has shown improvement in recent starts, including a runner-up finish at this track, demonstrating she is getting closer to breaking her maiden.​

Starship Legacy (PP2) is on the scratch watch with multiple veterinarian scratches in recent starts, which is a significant concern. If she runs, she would be a contender for trainer John Fennessy with Joe Stokes aboard.​

Secondary Choices

Bourbon Blanket (PP12) draws the outside but has the services of Edgar Paucar, who has been riding effectively at Mountaineer. Trainer Tamara Housel gets her maiden in position to break through.​

Pigeon Cay (PP3) trains for Horacio Barbaran with son Erik in the irons, a father-son combination that knows this track well. The five-year-old mare has had opportunities and looks for her first win.

Longshots

Lady Tozi (PP4) offers value at expected double-digit odds. The three-year-old carries the lowest weight at 114 pounds with Michael Pagan’s apprentice allowance for trainer Juan Vazquez.

Riley’s Got Trix (PP10) appears on the scratch watch but could offer significant value if she runs. Monitor for scratches.

Selections

Win: This Is Gloria
Place: Bourbon Blanket
Show: Pigeon Cay


Race 3 – Claiming $4,000 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

7:50 PM ET – Purse $9,000

Pace Analysis

This open claiming sprint features several horses with early speed, including Noble Force and Skylar’s Brother who should contest the early lead. Yolo Santiago has shown tactical versatility and could stalk the pace. Dream Force and Stormy Hollow prefer to come from off the pace and will need an honest tempo to deliver their best efforts.

Key Contenders

Yolo Santiago (PP6) appears on the scratch watch for a steward’s scratch at Mahoning Valley but could run here with Deshawn Parker aboard for trainer Rogelio Labra. At 3-1 morning line, he projects as the pace-controlling type who could wire the field if given a clean break.​

Noble Force (PP2) is a first-pick selection from computer models, showing an attractive blend of speed and class for this level. The three-year-old gelding trains for Moises Valdez with Alejandro Gomez riding. He appears on the scratch watch for a veterinarian scratch but would be dangerous if he runs.​

Secondary Choices

Skylar’s Brother (PP3) has consistent form for trainer Virginia Demczyk and gets Ricardo Barrios in the irons. The four-year-old has been competitive at this level and draws a favorable inside-middle post.​

Stormy Hollow (PP4) trains for Anthony Farrior, who recently surpassed 1,000 career victories and has built a reputation as one of the most consistent trainers in the mid-Atlantic region. Erik Barbaran rides the four-year-old who should benefit if the pace gets hot early.​

Longshots

Regal Temple (PP7) is worth a look at expected double-digit odds for trainer Robert Inman with apprentice Bailey Weatherly aboard. The three-year-old colt could improve at the right price.

Bob’s Kid (PP1) has the rail and appears on the scratch watch. If he runs, the inside position could prove advantageous in this track’s configuration.

Selections

Win: Yolo Santiago
Place: Noble Force
Show: Skylar’s Brother


Race 4 – Starter Optional Claiming $12,500 – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

8:15 PM ET – Purse $15,000

Pace Analysis

The short 4 1/2 furlong sprint will put a premium on early speed and gate position. Needed, Determined Love, and Sweet Queen Bee all have tactical speed and should establish the early pace. The short distance means closers will have limited opportunity to make up ground.

Key Contenders

Determined Love (PP2) is the first-pick selection among handicappers at 5/2 morning line. The veteran eight-year-old mare trains for Julie Mathes and gets Deshawn Parker, a combination that has been effective throughout the meet. Despite her age, she continues to show competitive form and should be prominent early from post 2.​

Mornin’ Boss (PP7) is identified as a top value selection at 9/2 morning line odds for trainer Eddie Clouston. Edgar Paucar rides the five-year-old mare who has shown improvement in recent efforts for the veteran conditioner.​

Secondary Choices

Needed (PP1) has the advantageous rail draw for the short sprint and trains for Brendan Gilmartin with Kevin Gonzalez aboard. At 10/1 morning line, she offers value as a pace factor.​

Silver Candice (PP9) carries just 116 pounds with Michael Pagan’s apprentice allowance for trainer Julie Mathes. The light impost could help in the short sprint.​

Longshots

Glory Hallelujah (PP8) offers value for trainer Terry Crago with apprentice Bailey Weatherly aboard. The three-year-old filly could surprise at a price.​

Outrage (PP5) has shown some ability for trainer Geraldine Rodak and could offer exotic value.

Selections

Win: Determined Love
Place: Mornin’ Boss
Show: Needed


Race 5 – Claiming $4,000 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

8:40 PM ET – Purse $9,000

Pace Analysis

This fillies and mares claiming sprint features several horses with early speed tendencies. Strawberry Sky and Wedding March both possess tactical speed and should establish the pace. The pace could get contentious if multiple horses compete for the lead, setting up for closers like Great Moon.

Key Contenders

Strawberry Sky (PP5) is a top selection at 5/2 morning line odds for trainer Moises Valdez with Alejandro Gomez riding. The three-year-old filly has shown steady improvement and should be competitive at this level.​

Wedding March (PP6) is a first-pick selection among handicappers for trainer Eddie Clouston with Edgar Paucar aboard. The Clouston barn has been consistent throughout the meet, and this three-year-old looks well-placed in this spot.​

Secondary Choices

Great Moon (PP7) offers value at 8-1 morning line for trainer Virginia Demczyk with Ricardo Barrios riding. The four-year-old could benefit if the pace gets contentious.​

Good to Be Truge (PP8) appears on the scratch watch but would be competitive if she runs for trainer John Fennessy.

Longshots

Bitcoin Baby (PP1) has the rail advantage and could surprise at expected double-digit odds for trainer Tara Reffner with Kevin Gonzalez aboard.​

Vostra (PP3) offers significant value for trainer Melinda Sanders with Maikol Vilchez riding.

Selections

Win: Wedding March
Place: Strawberry Sky
Show: Great Moon


Race 6 – Claiming $4,000 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

9:05 PM ET – Purse $9,000

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario projects several potential early leaders including Toomuchaintenough and I’m Your Captain. Whiskeyinateacup from the Silva barn has shown tactical versatility and could be positioned to close effectively if the pace is contested.

Key Contenders

Whiskeyinateacup (PP8) is identified as a top selection at 5/2 morning line for trainer Juan Pablo Silva with Deshawn Parker aboard. The three-year-old gelding gets the potent Silva/Parker combination that has been dominant at this meet.​

Toomuchaintenough (PP1) is another top selection for trainer Moises Valdez with Alejandro Gomez riding. The four-year-old has the advantageous rail draw and appears on the scratch watch from a recent steward’s scratch.​

Secondary Choices

Red in Front (PP6) has shown recent good form with a victory at this track and trains for Julie Mathes with Luis Negron aboard. The combination has been effective, and the four-year-old is coming off a November 12 win.​

Do Your Job (PP5) offers value for trainer Terry Crago with Ricardo Barrios riding.​

Longshots

Golden Goal (PP3) could surprise at expected double-digit odds for trainer Hugo Andrade with Antioco Murgia aboard.

Jackson’s Roar (PP4) appears on the scratch watch but would offer value if he runs.

Selections

Win: Whiskeyinateacup
Place: Toomuchaintenough
Show: Red in Front


Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming $12,500 – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

9:30 PM ET – Purse $20,000

Pace Analysis

The featured race is restricted to West Virginia-breds and presents an interesting pace scenario. Black Candy and Connect the Dots have shown tactical speed, while Giacomo Casanova prefers to rally from off the pace. Chief Randel could be forward early and set the pace for this field.

Key Contenders

Giacomo Casanova (PP7) is tied as a first-pick selection among handicappers at 7/2 morning line. The four-year-old by Creative Cause won at this track on July 1 and has been competitive throughout the season for trainer J. Michael Baird with Angel Diaz aboard. He has shown the ability to close effectively and should benefit from an honest pace.​

Chief Randel (PP3) is tied as a first-pick selection at 10/1 morning line for trainer Terry Crago with Ricardo Barrios riding. The veteran eight-year-old has significant experience at this level and draws well from post 3.​

Black Candy (PP1) won at this track on November 4 and comes back in this spot for trainer Randy Blackhurst with Bailey Weatherly aboard. The veteran nine-year-old has the advantageous rail draw and has shown recent good form.​

Secondary Choices

Sharpasadiamond (PP5) gets Deshawn Parker for trainer Anthony Rideoutt II and offers value at 5-1 morning line. The three-year-old could improve stepping up to this level.​

Connect the Dots (PP4) has shown consistent form for trainer Anthony Farrior with Yan Aviles aboard. The three-year-old has been competitive in allowance company.​

Longshots

Team Leyendecker (PP6) has been in the placings in recent starts for trainer Tina Ramgeet with Andrew Ramgeet aboard. The seven-year-old offers value in the exotics.​

Selections

Win: Black Candy
Place: Giacomo Casanova
Show: Chief Randel


Race 8 – Claiming $7,500 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time

9:55 PM ET – Purse $9,000

Pace Analysis

The finale features fillies and mares who have never won two races, suggesting a field of inconsistent runners. Our Lady Peace and Nun Gimel Hay Po have shown early speed tendencies and could contest the pace. Essential Magic and Liar for Hire prefer to come from off the pace.

Key Contenders

Our Lady Peace (PP2) is the consensus first-pick selection at 3-1 morning line for trainer Anthony Farrior with Erik Barbaran aboard. The three-year-old filly by Hoppertunity has shown improvement and trains for the accomplished Farrior barn that recently surpassed 1,000 career victories.​

Lil Breezzy (PP10) trains for Eddie Clouston with Edgar Paucar riding. The three-year-old is making her first start and is worth considering for the accomplished conditioner.​

Secondary Choices

S S Cosmopolitan (PP9) offers value at 15-1 morning line for trainer Miguel Jimenez with Brandon Tapara aboard. The five-year-old has been competitive at this level despite appearing on the scratch watch.​

Nun Gimel Hay Po (PP4) trains for Jeff Fletcher with Yuri Yaranga riding and could be a pace factor.

Longshots

Texas Hottie (PP8) appears on the scratch watch but would offer value if she runs for trainer Shane Spiess.

Smiles for David (PP7) carries the lowest weight at 119 pounds for trainer Timothy Gilbert with Michael Pagan’s apprentice allowance.

Selections

Win: Our Lady Peace
Place: Lil Breezzy
Show: S S Cosmopolitan


Jockey Notes and Insights

Deshawn Parker is the all-time leading jockey in wins at Mountaineer and a two-time national champion who became the first African-American jockey to lead all American jockeys in victories in 115 years when he accomplished the feat in 2010 and 2011. Parker surpassed 6,000 career wins in 2022 and brings tremendous experience and tactical ability to every mount. He has six mounts on today’s card and should be a major factor throughout.​

Luis Negron has been riding effectively at Mountaineer this season with multiple winners in recent weeks. The Puerto Rico native won the Grade 1 Derby Puertorriqueno in 2016 and has shown the ability to rate horses effectively and deliver closing kicks. He has wins aboard Beachwalker and Zimba Warrior in recent days.​

Edgar Paucar continues to be one of the most productive riders at Mountaineer with a strong winning percentage throughout the meet. He has been particularly effective for the Eddie Clouston barn and has shown consistency with multiple winners in recent cards.​

Kevin Gonzalez has compiled over 52 wins at Mountaineer this season and offers value on several live mounts today. His understanding of the track configuration makes him dangerous on horses with tactical speed.​

Bailey Weatherly, the apprentice jockey, offers a valuable weight allowance and has been riding effectively for the Terry Crago barn. Her mounts receive 5-pound apprentice allowances that can prove advantageous in competitive fields.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Juan Pablo Silva leads the Mountaineer training standings this season with 77 wins at a 25% strike rate from 309 starters. His barn has earned over $738,000 in purses and represents the top conditioner at this meet. The Silva barn with Parker or Negron aboard is one of the strongest angles at this track.​

Eddie Clouston recently surpassed 2,000 career training victories and has won four Mountaineer training titles since 2016. He has 51 wins from 306 starters this season and his runners with Edgar Paucar have been particularly effective. Clouston’s vast experience at this track makes his starters competitive in virtually every spot.​

Julie Mathes has multiple runners on today’s card and has shown effectiveness with her string at Mountaineer. Her horses with Deshawn Parker aboard warrant serious consideration.​

Anthony Farrior recently surpassed 1,000 career training victories and has built a reputation as one of the most consistent trainers in the mid-Atlantic region. His 24% career win rate and over $20 million in lifetime earnings speak to his ability to place horses in winning situations. Our Lady Peace in the finale is a key runner from his barn.​

Terry Crago has demonstrated success at Mountaineer with multiple winners this season, often with Bailey Weatherly aboard. His runners in the claiming ranks are typically well-placed and offer value.​


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best plays on this card center around the dominant Silva/Parker and Silva/Negron connections. Third Tuesday in Race 1 and Whiskeyinateacup in Race 6 both represent the Silva barn with experienced jockeys and project as reliable anchors for multi-race wagers.

Pick 3 Strategy (Races 1-3): Use Third Tuesday and Sky Divine in Race 1, single This Is Gloria in Race 2 (with Bourbon Blanket as safety), and spread to include Yolo Santiago and Noble Force in Race 3.

Pick 4 Strategy (Races 5-8): Wedding March and Strawberry Sky in Race 5, Whiskeyinateacup singled in Race 6, Black Candy and Giacomo Casanova in Race 7, and Our Lady Peace singled in Race 8.

Value Plays: Black Candy (PP1) in Race 7 at 5/2 morning line is the best value play on the card. The veteran has the advantageous rail draw for this track’s inside bias and is coming off a victory on November 4. The Blackhurst/Weatherly combination has been effective, and this West Virginia-bred fits well in this restricted field.​

Our Lady Peace (PP2) in Race 8 at 3-1 represents excellent value as the consensus top pick for the accomplished Farrior barn. The three-year-old should improve stepping into this spot.

Longshot Value: Loop of Henle (PP3) in Race 1 at 8-1 morning line is worth including in exotic wagers. The three-year-old by Gunnevera has the breeding to handle the distance and draws a favorable mid-post position.​

Exacta Plays: Race 7 offers the best exacta opportunity with Black Candy and Giacomo Casanova as the top two selections. A box or wheel using these two with Chief Randel provides coverage.

Superfecta Strategy: Race 2 with its large field offers the best superfecta opportunity. Use This Is Gloria over Bourbon Blanket, Pigeon Cay, and Lady Tozi for a small-ticket super that could pay well.

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