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Tampa Bay Downs opens its second week of the meet today with a nine‑race card featuring a mix of dirt routes, dirt sprints, and turf routes, including two higher‑purse allowance races (Races 7 and 8) that anchor the late card. Field sizes are healthy, especially in the turf claiming and allowance events, which should create honest pace scenarios and solid wagering opportunities.​

Early in the meet Tampa typically plays relatively fair, with no extreme post or style bias, but there are consistent tendencies that matter. Historical profiles show that on dirt, early speed is important in sprints and still very competitive in routes, while turf routes at Tampa often tilt slightly toward off‑the‑pace runners, especially when fields are full. Handicappers today should respect tactical speed on dirt and be willing to upgrade strong finishers on turf, particularly those drawn inside.​

Key handicappers focusing on this card are generally building around Cash the Check in Race 1, Cyberbeast in Race 2, Midnight Onyx in Race 3, Freud’s Fancy in Race 4, Reminder in Race 5, Domino Vitali in Race 6, Founders and Relative Value in Race 7, Uncashed and Nutella Fella in Race 8, and Kindred Hearts and Nicky Jolene in Race 9 as primary win contenders.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast data for downtown Tampa show Black Friday afternoon highs around 78–83°F with lows in the low‑ to mid‑60s, under dry, mostly sunny conditions. Extended November charts list November 28 as dry and seasonably warm, with no rain indicated. That strongly suggests a fast main track and firm turf course for today’s card.​

Seasonal climate data for Tampa in late November point to mild, pleasant conditions with temperatures typically in the mid‑60s to low 80s and only intermittent showers. Nothing in the regional Thanksgiving‑week forecast points to significant precipitation or storms impacting Oldsmar today.​

Expect:

Fast dirt
Firm turf (rail 12 feet, per condition book listing)

Both should play close to Tampa’s normal profiles: honest, not overly speed‑favoring, but still rewarding horses with position.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Historical and meet‑level profiles for Tampa Bay Downs show:

Dirt sprints: No extreme post bias. Rail and outside posts both win their share; early speed and pace control remain critical. Roughly mid‑teens percentages for both inside and outer posts in sprint winners suggest a broadly fair distribution.​

Dirt routes (mile to 1 1/16): Middle posts (4–6) have historically produced a slight edge in two‑turn races, especially at 1 1/16 miles, where middle gates captured about half the wins in a recent meet study. Forward or tactical position is usually advantageous, but deep closers can still win with pace.​

Turf routes: Several meet‑profile studies show that in Tampa turf routes, closers and stalkers do better than pure front‑runners, with off‑the‑pace types winning around the low‑40s percent range in some samples. Inside posts (1–3) have a measurable edge at one mile and similar route distances, winning close to 40% of races at that trip, particularly useful for today’s 5th, 7th, and 9th races.​

Overall, Tampa remains one of the fairer circuits, but the key angles are:

On dirt: Upgrade horses with tactical speed and clean trips, especially at one mile 40 yards.
On turf: Upgrade late runners drawn inside or mid‑pack in full fields; downgrade need‑the‑lead types from wide gates unless they tower on class.​

1st Race – Maiden Claiming – 1M 40Y Dirt – 2yo Fillies

Post Time

12:45 PM ET

Pace Analysis

There is no absolute runoff here, but multiple fillies have at least some early foot.

Knowledge Is Good has shown early speed going shorter, often attending or pressing the pace. Cash the Check has tactical speed and can be close early without needing the lead. Coqueta Blue has been forwardly placed in sprints but can stalk. Somerset Mia exits a shorter sprint and should be sharper early second time out.​

Projected scenario: Knowledge Is Good and Somerset Mia are most likely to vie for the front into the first turn, with Cash the Check perched right behind, Coqueta Blue tracking in the second flight, and Instapurchase and Ez Yours settling mid‑pack. Pace should be honest but not suicidal, favoring a tactical stalker with stamina.

Key Contenders

Cash the Check comes into this with the strongest combination of recent figures and connections. She exits a solid third at Gulfstream going 5.5 furlongs in maiden special weight company and now finds a softer maiden claiming spot while stretching out, which should fit her pedigree and running style. Trainer Bennett is highly effective with class drops and route placements, and Santos fits Tampa routes well. Logical favorite and most likely winner.​

Coqueta Blue has repeatedly faced tougher at Gulfstream and keeps finding ways to hit the frame. She typically shows enough early foot to secure position, then grinds on. Her figures fit well at this level, and the combination of Ferrer and Sano should have her forward from a cozy post. She looks like the main win alternative if Cash the Check fails to stay the trip or gets cooked in a duel.​

Somerset Mia is lightly raced and eligible to improve the most. She was not disgraced on debut when facing a tougher group and now stretches out from 5.5 furlongs. Second‑start improvement is a strong angle, and Marin has been very efficient early in the meet. If she relaxes breaking from the outside and sits just off the top pair rather than dueling, she can finish strongly.​

Secondary Choices

Knowledge Is Good has had several chances and is still a maiden, but her overall profile shows a consistent ability to be part of the race with competitive figures. Her early foot and inside draw are positives, but she has tended to flatten late. She is a logical underneath key, especially if she shakes loose in a moderate tempo.​

Instapurchase is a grinder who has been keeping slightly better company at Gulfstream and has some longer‑distance experience. Her winning profile percentages are modest, but this class relief and stretch back out could make her a board threat without necessarily being win‑material.​

Longshots

Ez Yours has yet to hit the board in three starts, but she has been trying turf and shorter distances, not this configuration. Dini does excellent work at Tampa, and subtle improvement stretching out on dirt with a local race could produce a late share if the top choices weaken.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is likely to flow through Cash the Check and Coqueta Blue as the main win keys, with Somerset Mia as the upside runner. The tactical speed advantage of Cash the Check plus the class relief is strong.

Win: Cash the Check, acceptable down to a short price.
Backup win saver on Coqueta Blue if the board offers decent value.
Exacta: Cash the Check over Coqueta Blue, Somerset Mia, Knowledge Is Good.
Trifecta: Cash the Check, Coqueta Blue over Cash the Check, Coqueta Blue, Somerset Mia, Knowledge Is Good over all.

Selections

Win

Cash the Check

Place
Coqueta Blue

Show
Somerset Mia

2nd Race – Maiden Claiming – 1M 40Y Dirt – 3yo and up

Post Time

1:15 PM ET

Pace Analysis

R B’s Runner and Party On Rufus are the most likely to show early interest, with My Little Caibo potentially hustled from an inside draw given the weight break. Gap to Gap has enough tactical velocity to sit right behind them, while Cyberbeast likely tracks in mid‑pack, followed by King Reigert.

The pace should be moderate. It is unlikely to collapse, so horses who can sit second tier and make a sustained move around the far turn are preferred.

Key Contenders

Cyberbeast stands out on drop and figures. He exits Gulfstream races at slightly higher claiming levels and has the best overall recent speed profile in this field. Sacco spots aggressively to get the win, and Marin is riding very well locally. From post 2, he should enjoy a ground‑saving stalk and prove hard to deny.​

Gap to Gap is a logical main rival. Batista and Avila are a solid local team, and this colt’s form line suggests gradual improvement with distance. The rail draw in a two‑turn dirt race at Tampa is advantageous if he breaks alertly; he can either set or sit second and get a first run on deeper closers.​

Party On Rufus has the look of a horse knocking on the door. His prior efforts show decent speed figures at similar levels, and Ferrer’s aggressive riding style can have him applying pressure to the leaders throughout. If he clears or chases a manageable pace, he can hang around for a piece.​

Secondary Choices

R B’s Runner may show improved form dropping into this level and with a change of scenery. He has some positional speed and can get first run on the stalkers, but his finishing profile has been unreliable.

King Reigert is a relatively lightly raced 3‑year‑old and may still be improving. Martinez and Rice have had some Tampa success together in similar spots. From a wide post he may be forced to tuck in and make one run, aiming primarily for underneath.

Longshots

My Little Caibo is an extreme longshot type but does get in light with the 10‑pound bug aboard. If he can break sharply and establish clear position, the weight break could allow him to stick for a minor share in a relatively thin field.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Cyberbeast as a strong single in horizontal wagers and a key in intra‑race exotics.
Exacta: Cyberbeast over Gap to Gap and Party On Rufus.
Trifecta: Cyberbeast over Gap to Gap, Party On Rufus over all.

Selections

Win

Cyberbeast

Place
Gap to Gap

Show
Party On Rufus

3rd Race – Claiming – 1M 40Y Dirt – N1Y Condition

Post Time

1:44 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Silent and Violent, despite the low weight, has the profile of a horse who wants to be forward. Cox Canyon from the rail may also be sent to secure position, and Speedy Hans can show tactical pace when asked. Growth Capital figures to be mid‑pack. Midnight Onyx and Consultant are generally stalkers, while Globes and Wizard Serrat can be more patient.

The shape here looks like a contested but not blazing early pace, which should aid strong stalkers coming from just off the leaders. On current Tampa route profiles, that is a very winning style.​

Key Contenders

Midnight Onyx looks like the horse to beat on class and rider. He comes out of better optional claiming and allowance‑type company for Moysey, and the booking of Landeros in a conditioned claimer is a strong signal. His stalking style is ideal for this group: he can sit third or fourth, get the first run at the leaders, and has the back class to sustain the move.​

Growth Capital can be dangerous if he gets the right trip. Arriagada has a good record improving claimed horses and runners in form cycles, and this horse has enough speed to avoid traffic but not get embroiled early. The outside post allows the rider to judge the pace and sit where comfortable.​

Globes is a key local selection from at least one prominent handicapper and figures to be a strong late factor. His recent lines suggest he is at home at this level, and the switch to Tampa, plus the race shape, could bring his best.​

Secondary Choices

Speedy Hans has age and miles, but that also means experience. Hernandez bringing him back in a relatively protected spot indicates some confidence. If he can stalk instead of pressing, he is a live exotics piece.

Consultant is a hard‑trying veteran who often picks up pieces late. Delgado keeps him spotted where he can be competitive, and while a win might be a stretch, he is a reliable board hitter, especially if the race goes faster than expected early.

Longshots

Cox Canyon will need a big step forward, but the rail and light weight offer some upside. If he clears and is left alone up front, he could outrun his odds to hang on for a minor check.

Wizard Serrat has had flashes of form and can take advantage of any rail‑saving trips from mid‑pack. He is the type to pop up in trifectas at a price.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Midnight Onyx if the price holds fair, with a backup saver on Globes at a decent number.
Exacta: Midnight Onyx, Globes over Midnight Onyx, Globes, Growth Capital, Speedy Hans.
Trifecta: Key Midnight Onyx and Globes on top over four or five logical underneath horses.

Selections

Win

Midnight Onyx

Place
Globes

Show
Growth Capital

4th Race – Claiming – 1M 40Y Dirt – N2L – Fillies and Mares

Post Time

2:14 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Future Fortune and Sweet Wine, both getting weight breaks, have incentive to go forward. Dance On Air from the rail can be put into the race early, and Ain’t Noncents can be forwardly placed when right. Sunday Tiff and Forever Again typically settle mid‑pack. Freud’s Fancy and Cheerful Trout are more grinding types, while Anna Jean likely takes up a stalking mid‑flight spot.

The pace should be solid but not overly hot. Given Tampa’s tendency to reward stalking/pressing types in routes, horses sitting just behind the leaders with enough finish are preferred.

Key Contenders

Freud’s Fancy has been pointed to this spot and was cross‑entered in a similar level earlier in the meet before being re‑routed.[Scratch watch] Her connections appear to have targeted this N2L condition, and Ferraro tends to place his stock well when shipping into Tampa. From the outside post she should get a stalking trip in the clear, avoiding kickback. Class and projected trip make her a prime win candidate.​

Sunday Tiff exits tougher optional claiming or higher‑level claiming races and appears class‑relieved here. Delgado is typically live when dropping a filly into this kind of open N2L spot. Drawing middle helps; she can track the inside speed and get first run turning for home.

Dance On Air from the rail with Batista and Simone is another primary player. She fits on figures, is well spotted, and the rail draw in a route gives them options to either secure the lead or sit just off.

Secondary Choices

Cheerful Trout has been looking for the right N2L spot and gets a fair opportunity here off the also‑eligible lists in prior entries.[Scratch watch] She should be mid‑price and can clunk up late into the exotics.

Forever Again was also on an also‑eligible list last week and now gets a confirmed run today.[Scratch watch] She lacks consistency but does have races that put her in the mix if she shows her better side.

Anna Jean is a lightly raced 3‑year‑old who could have upside second half of the season. She should get a stalking trip and is a candidate to step forward with experience.

Longshots

Future Fortune is not impossible from a pace perspective: she has speed, gets in very light, and may get brave if left alone. However, the stretch out and final furlong will test her stamina.

Ain’t Noncents is a veteran mare who can be part of the race early but has struggled to finish lately. She is best used underneath.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Freud’s Fancy as main play if the price is acceptable.
Backup win small on Sunday Tiff if she drifts up from the line.
Exacta: Freud’s Fancy, Sunday Tiff over Freud’s Fancy, Sunday Tiff, Dance On Air, Cheerful Trout.
Trifecta: Use Freud’s Fancy and Sunday Tiff in the top two slots with a spread of mid‑priced mares underneath.

Selections

Win

Freud’s Fancy

Place
Sunday Tiff

Show
Dance On Air

5th Race – Claiming – 1 1/16M Turf – N2L

Post Time

2:43 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This is a large field with several potential pace contributors.

Ragman, Spartacus’s Dude, Standpoint, and Hasn’t Had Enough can all show some early foot. Reminder, Hyper Venom, and Jibilian are typically stalkers. Post Command and Sky Masterson usually sit mid‑pack. Ky Thirty Won, Steam Powered, and Fore Flag can be off the pace.

With the rail at 12 feet and a big field, early jostling is likely. Tampa turf routes tend historically to reward off‑the‑pace runners, especially in full fields, and inside or mid‑posts often have an edge in saving ground and finishing late. A contested early pace here should set the stage for a strong closer or tactical stalker.​

Key Contenders

Reminder is a standout contender. He fits the N2L condition perfectly, exits stronger races, and brings a running style (tactical stalker with a good turn of foot) that matches Tampa’s turf bias. Multiple handicappers have identified him as the key horse in this race. With Gallardo up, he should work out a cozy mid‑pack trip and pounce late.​

Sky Masterson for Sacco and Landeros is another horse with upside. His prior turf efforts show a consistent finish, and this trip should be ideal. From post 12 he will need a sensible ride to avoid losing too much ground, but the connections and his running style give confidence he can overcome the draw.

Standpoint gets the services of Marquez and has tactical speed to tuck in behind likely leaders. If the pace is only moderate rather than hot, he is one of the likelier types to get first run and try to wire the field.

Secondary Choices

Ragman has inside position and should be prominent from the break. If the turf ends up playing kinder to speed than expected, he is the one most likely to capitalize at a square price.

Ky Thirty Won shows prior cross‑entries and is now finally in the right N2L turf claiming spot.[Scratch watch] Dini knows how to get a horse to peak at Tampa. He should be taken seriously as a back‑half rallying type.

Post Command and Hyper Venom both project as solid mid‑price exotics inclusions. Their running styles fit and neither is pace‑dependent.

Longshots

Steam Powered and Fore Flag enter off also‑eligible lists recently and figure to be prices.[Scratch watch] Both could benefit from a complete meltdown up front and sneak into the lower rungs of tris and supers with strong late rallies.

Hasn’t Had Enough is an older gelding whose best form is behind him but can occasionally grab a piece at a big number in the right setup.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Reminder is a strong win play and horizontal anchor.
Backup win on Sky Masterson or Ragman if the board offers overlay value.
Exacta: Reminder over Sky Masterson, Standpoint, Ragman, Ky Thirty Won.
Trifecta: Reminder keyed on top over a pool of 6–8 logical closers and mid‑pack types.

Selections

Win

Reminder

Place
Sky Masterson

Show
Ragman

6th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 6.5F Dirt – Fillies and Mares

Post Time

3:13 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Bon Vivant, Blazing Affair, and Black Darter all can show serious early pace. Higher Self can attend from the inside, and Domino Vitali appears tractable with enough speed to sit just off the leading trio. Popcorn N Peaches and Hola Hermosa appear more mid‑pack to late.

Tampa’s dirt sprints often reward early speed, but at 6.5 furlongs, races can be a bit more neutral, allowing one strong stalker to sit behind a contested pace and mow them down late. If the three main speed fillies hook up early, it favors a tactically versatile closer.​

Key Contenders

Domino Vitali has been strongly pegged as the horse to beat by multiple handicappers and figures to be a short price. Delgado has her in peak form, and Centeno is one of the best at nursing a trip stalking speed over this surface. She has already shown competitiveness at this level, and the draw in post 8 allows her to sit outside the main speeds and move when ready.​

Bon Vivant owns some of the strongest back‑class in the field, having competed against tougher prior company and earning solid figures. She is fast enough to be part of the early pace yet has shown some ability to rate. If she avoids a prolonged duel and can relax just off the lead, she becomes a serious win threat.​

Black Darter has the pedigree and connections to jump forward at this stage of her career. Esler’s runners tend to be well‑meant when placed in maiden special weight company locally, and Gallardo’s presence is significant. She can either go or sit just behind Bon Vivant and Blazing Affair, giving her tactical options.

Secondary Choices

Blazing Affair for Gulick with Sonny Leon aboard has enough speed to factor heavily early. Her prior races show competitive fractions, but she must prove she can sustain 6.5 furlongs at this level. She is usable in exotics, especially if she clears.​

Higher Self from the rail could trip out behind the main speed, saving ground. If the pace melts, she can run into the minors at a price.

Longshots

Queen of Spirits and Popcorn N Peaches are improving types who may catch a piece if the top tier underperforms. They project more as lower‑rung trifecta or superfecta fillers.

Hola Hermosa is another candidate to outrun long odds by staying on late, but she looks a stretch to win.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Domino Vitali as a key single in multirace exotics and primary win bet.
Exacta: Domino Vitali over Bon Vivant and Black Darter.
Trifecta: Domino Vitali over Bon Vivant, Black Darter, Blazing Affair over Bon Vivant, Black Darter, Blazing Affair, Higher Self.

Selections

Win

Domino Vitali

Place
Bon Vivant

Show
Black Darter

7th Race – Allowance – 1 1/16M Turf – N1X

Post Time

3:43 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Temple City Taboo is a filly versus males and likely to be ridden with some early intent, but she is not a need‑the‑lead type. Late Call and Cupid’s Dude both can show tactical pace; Break Out also has enough speed to be in the front half. Sir Magestrate and Start Mo Up project mid‑pack. Founders, Relative Value, Concord Green, and Heathguard are all more comfortable sitting off the pace and making one run.

Typical Tampa turf route profiles, particularly at this distance, tilt toward stalking/closing styles, which matches the strengths of the key contenders Relative Value, Founders, and Concord Green. Given 11 runners, an honest pace is likely, and a late kick will be decisive.​

Key Contenders

Founders is the consensus key horse. Multiple public handicappers make him the top pick in this spot. He has been facing stronger company and has a powerful late kick suited to this configuration. The Sacco barn is live early in the meet, and while the jockey booking is not a top‑tier local name, his class edge is notable. A clean mid‑pack trip with cover sets him up as the one to hold off late.​

Relative Value ships in from a top‑class program and arrives for Brown and Gallardo. His European background and steady improvement suggest he is well‑spotted for this N1X in Florida. From post 3, Gallardo can save all the ground and unleash his finish on the rail or two‑path turning for home. He is a major threat to favorite status and could easily win.​

Concord Green, trained by McGaughey and ridden by Marin, is another upwardly mobile 3‑year‑old whose profile screams improved 4‑year‑old season. Even now he fits numerically and with his running style. From a mid‑pack draw he can settle and finish up.

Secondary Choices

Late Call brings plenty of local turf experience and can sit closer to the pace, giving him a tactical edge if the track plays more speed‑friendly today. He is a must‑use in exotics and could upset with the right setup.​

Heathguard is a useful turf allowance gelding who tends to fire steadily. Morales is a strong turf rider at Tampa, and this horse could easily hit the board at a price.

Break Out, with Campbell, also qualifies as a pace‑pressing type who might hang around for a share if the course plays faster than typical.

Longshots

Cupid’s Dude and Sir Magestrate return from layoff issues and prior scratches for illness or vet reasons noted earlier in the meet.[Scratch watch] Both have back form that could make them relevant if fully cranked, but they are riskier win propositions.

Temple City Taboo is ambitiously spotted against males but gets a weight break. She is more of a longshot to spice up the exotics.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Relative Value or Founders, focusing on whichever offers better value on the tote compared with their perceived edge.
Exacta: Founders, Relative Value over Founders, Relative Value, Concord Green, Late Call.
Trifecta: Key Founders and Relative Value in the top two slots with deep exotics coverage underneath.

Selections

Win

Relative Value

Place
Founders

Show
Concord Green

8th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6F Dirt

Post Time

4:13 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Uncashed is a serious front‑runner with proven early speed and class, coming in off two straight wins and regularly attending or making the lead. Thealligatorhunter is also a pace presence but may be more of a pressing type at this stage. El Principito and Life Is Precious have tactical speed and can sit close. Pure Class has enough early foot to be in the first flight, while Khozeiress and Nutella Fella often stalk. Rome’s Conquest and Lord Berrier are deeper closing types.​

Given Uncashed’s natural speed, today’s pace scenario likely revolves around whether he secures a relatively uncontested lead. Tampa’s 6F dirt events can be friendly to such high‑quality front‑runners, especially when in current form.​

Key Contenders

Uncashed is a standout. He has won his last two starts and is well‑placed to complete the hat trick according to several form analyses. Rivelli is elite at placing and keeping speed horses sharp, and Morales is a high‑percentage Tampa sprint rider. Off his recent figures, he clearly fits this condition and has a major tactical advantage.​

Nutella Fella is the main danger. He has proven graded‑company ability and has already beaten quality Tampa sprinters, including some rivals in this race. While he is not as quick as Uncashed early, his strong late kick and prior local success make him very dangerous if the favorite engages in an early duel or faces pressure.​

El Principito is a logical third factor. He has plenty of Tampa form, can sit just behind Uncashed, and has finished in front of several decent local sprinters. If the track plays a bit more neutral than usual, his balanced running style gives him a shot to pick up pieces.

Secondary Choices

Pure Class has credible speed figures and may benefit if the top pair overdo it early or if one underperforms. He projects as a pace‑tracking type who can hold well enough for minor awards.​

Life Is Precious and Thealligatorhunter each have enough ability to snag a minor check in the right scenario. Thealligatorhunter especially can show big early speed at times and might act as a spoiler for Uncashed if they hook up.

Khozeiress is a seasoned stakes‑type sprinter who could work out a mid‑pack trip and come on late for a slice.

Longshots

Rome’s Conquest and Lord Berrier are deep closers who would need a full‑on pace collapse to contend for more than third or fourth. They are longshot inclusions in supers.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Uncashed as the primary win key.
Saver win: Nutella Fella if his price floats above fair value relative to Uncashed.
Exacta: Uncashed over Nutella Fella and El Principito.
Reverse smaller exacta Nutella Fella over Uncashed in case of a pace meltdown.
Trifecta: Uncashed, Nutella Fella over Uncashed, Nutella Fella, El Principito, Pure Class over a wide spread including Life Is Precious, Khozeiress and Thealligatorhunter.

Selections

Win

Uncashed

Place
Nutella Fella

Show
El Principito

9th Race – Claiming – 1M Turf – N3L – Fillies and Mares

Post Time

4:43 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Nicky Jolene, Dorotea Dream, and Lipan Law possess early or tactical speed that can put them in the front flight. Mishka and Classicals Finale project to track just behind. Classy Lass, Kindred Hearts, Answer the Call, and Shakrevenge are mid‑pack or stalking types. Honorable Chill, True Myth, Whirlwind, and Secret Victory are more likely to make one run from off the pace.

Tampa turf routes with full fields typically favor off‑the‑pace runners with inside draws able to save ground. Today’s configuration matches that: 14‑horse field, rail 12 feet, and a mix of early types. Expect a fairly strong pace, setting the table for closers or mid‑pack types who can accelerate.​

Key Contenders

Kindred Hearts has been singled out by at least one leading handicapper as the key mare in this race. For Sacco and Gil, she gets an advantageous inside‑mid draw and a class level that suits her. Her style—stalking or mid‑pack with a late run—is ideal for Tampa turf routes. Provided she gets room in the lane, she has every right to outfinish these.​

Nicky Jolene is a live pace‑stalking type breaking from the rail with Ferrer and Aguayo. If the turf is playing moderately toward speed, she can either grab the top or sit pocketed behind the leaders. She is already a highlighted local pick and should run very well.​

Classy Lass, from the powerful Gallardo and Vitali tandem, has the kind of grinding late style that is tailor‑made for this trip and configuration. She has enough tactical foot to avoid being too far back, and with Gallardo’s positioning she should be in the right spot turning for home.

Secondary Choices

Honorable Chill for Landeros and Lawrence can be a late‑running factor at a decent price. She will appreciate any pace meltdown and is a good candidate for the trifecta.

Answer the Call was previously on an also‑eligible list at a slightly lower claiming level and now lands here.[Scratch watch] She has the right running style and mid‑draw to get a clean trip.

Secret Victory and Whirlwind are improving 3‑year‑olds who can take a small step forward and grab minor awards.

Longshots

Dorotea Dream, Mishka, and Lipan Law are all potential pace/pressing types who could outrun their odds if the turf ends up favoring speed today. Each is more likely to hang around for a small share than to win, but in vertical exotics they add price.

True Myth and Shakrevenge fit the deep closer profile who can be dangerous for the bottom of supers if the field collapses late.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win: Kindred Hearts and Nicky Jolene, splitting stakes depending on tote value.
Exacta: Kindred Hearts, Nicky Jolene over Kindred Hearts, Nicky Jolene, Classy Lass, Honorable Chill.
Trifecta: Key the three main contenders in the top and second spots, spreading with six to eight others for third.

Selections

Win

Kindred Hearts

Place
Nicky Jolene

Show
Classy Lass

Jockey Notes and Insights

Pablo Morales is one of the most effective speed and pace‑sense riders at Tampa, particularly in sprints and turf events. He rides Uncashed in Race 8 and Heathguard in Race 7, giving both strong tactical chances.​

Antonio Gallardo is consistently among the leading jockeys at Tampa and is particularly effective on turf and with stalking types. He rides Reminder in Race 5, Relative Value in Race 7, Black Darter in Race 6, and Classy Lass in Race 9. These mounts all fit his strengths as a patient, position‑savvy rider.​

Daniel Centeno is another high‑percentage Tampa rider, especially in routes and allowance‑type races. His mount Domino Vitali in Race 6 stands out, as does his presence on Classicals Finale and Secret Victory later on the card.​

Jose Ferrer is a veteran who excels at judging pace, especially with mid‑priced claimers. Today he has Coqueta Blue in Race 1, Ragman in Race 5, El Principito in Race 8, and Nicky Jolene in Race 9, all in live spots where a savvy ride can significantly influence outcomes.​

Samuel Marin has been in excellent form early in the meet and picks up key mounts like Somerset Mia in Race 1, Ky Thirty Won in Race 5, Bon Vivant in Race 6, and Concord Green in Race 7. His current streak makes his mounts attractive potential overlays.​

Jose Batista is a solid rail‑trip and speed rider who partners with Knowledge Is Good in Race 1, Gap to Gap in Race 2, and Fore Flag in Race 5. Expect aggressive tactics from him, especially from inside posts.​

Sonny Leon brings strong timing and is live on several mid‑price horses: Blazing Affair in Race 6, Founders in Race 7 (if the final jock change aligns), and Khozeiress in Race 8. His aggressive style is particularly dangerous on stalkers and closers in full fields.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Gerald Bennett is a perennial force at Tampa, especially with claimers and maiden claimers. Cash the Check in Race 1 and Life Is Precious and El Principito in Race 8 benefit from his placement skills and conditioning. He is especially strong with speed horses and class droppers.​

Gregory Sacco appears to have a very live set today: Cyberbeast in Race 2, Standpoint and Sky Masterson in Race 5, Sir Magestrate and Kindred Hearts in Races 7 and 9. His runners often show up fit and ready off minor freshenings, and his turf placements are usually well‑judged.​

Antonio Sano has a small but focused string at Tampa. Coqueta Blue in Race 1, Reminder in Race 5, Bon Vivant in Race 6, and others show he is targeting specific races where his horses have class edges and appropriate conditions.​

Juan Arriagada and Marcus Vitali are both sharp local horsemen who do very well on the Tampa turf. Arriagada’s Post Command in Race 5 and Vitali’s Classy Lass in Race 9 have to be respected in any turf wagering strategy.​

Jorge Delgado and Jorge Simone are two trainers whose horses often outrun odds early in the meet. Delgado’s Domino Vitali in Race 6 and Simone’s runners like Knowledge Is Good in Race 1 and Chaz the Chief in Race 7 deserve second looks.​

Larry Rivelli is an elite sprint trainer, and whenever he ships a horse like Uncashed into Tampa for an allowance optional event, it is typically with strong intent. Combined with Morales, this is one of the highest‑percentage trainer‑jockey combinations on the card in Race 8.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given today’s race shapes, track tendencies, and consensus opinions, the card presents several strong anchors and a handful of live value plays.

Key horizontal singles or strong A‑type horses:

Race 1: Cash the Check as the primary single in early sequences, with Coqueta Blue as an A‑minus backup.
Race 2: Cyberbeast as a strong anchor in early Pick 3 and Pick 5 structures.​
Race 3: Midnight Onyx and Globes as dual A’s.
Race 5: Reminder as a key horse in the middle of the card, particularly in turf‑focused sequences.​
Race 6: Domino Vitali as a strong single for late sequences.​
Race 7: Relative Value and Founders as dual A’s in the late Pick 4 and Pick 5.
Race 8: Uncashed as a primary single, with some coverage of Nutella Fella as a backup.​
Race 9: Kindred Hearts and Nicky Jolene as co‑keys in closing legs.​

Value‑oriented plays:

Ragman and Ky Thirty Won in Race 5 look like potential overlay mid‑price horses who can be used as B‑level winners and strong underneath keys in trifectas.
Late Call and Heathguard in Race 7 are under‑the‑radar types who could complete big exactas or trifectas at decent prices if the chalks merely hold on for minor awards.​
Nicky Jolene in Race 9, if ignored due to the rail draw, could offer excellent value as a pace‑advantaged mare with a reliable rider.​

Vertical strategy across the card should lean on:

On dirt routes: boxing key stalkers over several speed types in exactas, recognizing Tampa’s slight preference for tactical runners over deep closers.
On turf routes: keying dependable closers with inside or middle posts on top while using multiple speeds and stalkers underneath to capture tri and super value.
In sprints: leaning heavily on the primary speed or tactical speed horses if the track stays fast and consistent, especially in the feature sprint (Race 8).

Overall, combining strong favorites like Cyberbeast, Reminder, Domino Vitali, Relative Value, Founders, and Uncashed with value runners like Ragman, Late Call, Heathguard, and Nicky Jolene provides a balanced wagering plan with both solid win probability and upside in exotics.